Tunisia Protests

Tunisia Revolution

I Like IKE

The Lesson of History – “Societies and the world develop super elites, or a ruling class that has two ways to survive- they either suppress/crush dissent or they share the wealth. It’s obvious what the better outcome is.” This sentence introduces the revised  OVERVIEW Section of the Investors411 blog.

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The ongoing revolution in Tunisia has caused the dictator and others  in the “ruling class” to flee. Other Arab countries who are ruled by dictators, many of which are supported by the USA, are worried. One of those dictatorships with massive US support is Egypt –  The Egyptian stock market hit a fresh 6 week low today as foreign investors pulled their money.

The super elites in some countries establish dictatorships in others they work through democracies. Some work toward sharing the wealth and others crushing dissents for personal gain. These elites have more in common with each other than any country was the message of Thursday’s blog featuring and an Atlantic magazine article by Chrystia Freeland

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Jeremy Grantham is a mega investor and a member of the super elites. His quarterly newsletter is a must read for any serious investors.

I Like Ike (President Eisenhower) is a purposeful editorial full of statistics. He talks about Ike’s warning of the rise of the military industrial complex (super elites). He compares the USA of 1960 to 2010 (50 years later) The results are chilling for the country that used to be called the leader of the free world. Investors411 will elaborate on a few of those stats tomorrow.

Richard Lugar

Assault Weapons Ban

Republican Senator Richard Lugar (Indiana) has announced he an supports assault weapons ban. You could give him a quick thanks, since he is being flooded with mail by Assault weapons supporters. The fact that even one Republican has moved on this is encouraging.

Contact info for Senator Lugar

All it takes is a minute for you to say Thanks for supporting the Assault Weapons ban and another minute to copy and past this message to a friend. If Lugar got a million emails from us instead of assault weapons supporters YOU would change the tide.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.47% up
NASDQ +0.73% up
S&P 500 +0.74% up
Russell 2000 +0.86% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Steve Jobs, Apple’s #1 is taking an “Indefinite” leave of absence. Here a positive spin story from CNBC.
  • Big earnings reporting day for US markets. Jeff Miller has a complete nuts and bolts analysis of this week here
  • JPM & INTC have set an above average standard as far as earnings report expectations go. Usually other earnings’ reports have to meet or beat the expectations of the first few reports to move stocks higher.
  • Times have changed and the Fed cash injections (quantitative easing) for over a year have pushed stocks higher (see below for more) Fed only injecting $1 to 2 billion today. (Often gets near $10 billion)

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] A moderate rally Friday of  +0.34%. We were close to support levels or bottom of an almost 2 month long consolidation range Friday. The support held.  So outlook= Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose Friday to  +10.93 The MO has been no where near +/- 60 for two months, but the chart shows a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows and that’s bullish. Outlook overall for stocks = Neutral/bullish

NB – If “Neutral” (or any word) is bolded and ”bullish” is not It gives more weight to the Neutral.

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Today market Fundamentals matter.

  • Steve Jobs, Apple’s #1 has announced an indefinite leave of absence because of illness. The tech giant & #2 market cap company in world will open down significantly and probably fall some more early on.
  • Today, because of Monday’s holiday gives a double whammy of earnings report. It’s earnings seasons biggest week.
  • Can’t reiterate this enough. One thing the Fed’s quantitative easing is designed to do is lift stocksespecially shadow banks Virtually every sophisticated investor realizes this and is jumping in whenever financials dip.

What to watch today

AAPL – Tech market leader is somewhat over bought. – Expect a big hit early on the Steve Jobs news. If Apple does not loose 4% today = It’s one strong bull market.

UUP – (tracking ETF for Dollar) In consolidation range, but now very close to support level or bottom of range.- You know the drill – Dollar down = Stocks up.

Bottom Line – Probably a lot of pain this AM because of Apple, but think there will be many ready to buy the dip because they realize that the Fed has another 600 billion in quantitative easing to pump into economy/stocks. Once all the weak holders are flushed out we will probably revert to trend. AAPL is a buy the dip stock. Mantra Don’t fight the FED (they are pushing stocks higher) especially in light volume.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM - (2x small cap stocks) UWM still outperforming other US indexes
  • REMX - (rare earth metals) No matter how good you feel about something if it starts to roll over – sell.  May sell 1/2 of this ETF this AM

Under consideration (Note below was written Friday)

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Challenged its resistance/break out level but failed.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars. Fell -1.73% in light volume. Just the kind of fall you like. Another day like yesterday= buy the dip.

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky because its leveraged 3X. Waiting for larger pull back on both. EWZ went right up to 79/its major resistance level and fell back -1.58% yesterday. Both a possible buy the dip for those that can tolerate the risk.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Warning – over extended right now, but doesn’t seem to matter.

DGP – Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip. Consolidating at support level. Those that can tolerate the risk – now’s the time to buy.

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CAUTION -The past two Your Stock Lists were closed before earnings season began.  YSL #3 is outperforming the benchmark S&P 500, but not as dramatically better than YSL’s#1 & 2 were.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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