Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
April 23, 2012

Greed Eats Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

..

Greed Eats Democracy


.

It Been 23 Years Since China

Massacred Democracy

At Tiananmen Square

.

________________

.

Whose Money Is Nurturing

One Party Communist State?

.

.

Greedy

Oligarchs Love Dictators

and

Hate Democracy

.

A given – Outsourcing – Where US companies send million of jobs overseas because of cheaper labor costs.

  • USAGE was supposed to pay a 35% tax on its $5.1 billion in US profits. Their lobbyists almost own our politicians so instead of paying taxes they have a $3.2 billion tax credit.
  • CHINA – GE pays a full 25% corporate tax in China. Add to that China is the rated second worst country for bribes. We all know major US conglomerates bribe politicians

.

Is GE Alone

Hell NO

.

Hundreds of Major US Companies

Feed the Totalitarian

One Party Chinese State

.

FAIRNESS

.

.

US Corporations give in to the

Chinese Dictatorship

who, with their help, will soon

rule the world

.

Why can’t they pay

more of their fair share here?

.

Choose

.

GREED or DEMOCRACY

..

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

France/ the Dutch

Austerity or Taxes?

Dragging Stocks DOWN

.

  • Major European markets are down early (6:00 AM EDT - 1.67% to 2.67% ) on news from France, Netherlands and a Spanish Bond Rate over 6.00%. [Check out Link for latest]
  • Elections in France went badly for Sarkozy (center right). Winner – Hollande (center left). Better than expected – Anti Immigration/Euro – (far right) Most see Hollande winning the May 6th run off between him and Sarkozy – BBC report
  • FYI – Hollande wants to consider raising the top tax rate to 75% in France instead of making more and larger spending cuts. Contrast with Obama’s rise to 30% (Buffett Rule)

.

For Investors/Traders

How to Play Europe’s

Political/Economic Problems

.

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

The USA currently has the most positive outlook of all the major economies.

.

We are being dragged down by Japan (natural disaster), and Europe. Hard to call what’s happening in China – but hard to imagine 8 to 9% GDP growth continue.

Our top technical indicator –  McClellan Oscillator is at -8.22. Lots of room till we get to oversold or overbought = NEUTRAL

..

  • From Friday – Holding a full boat of long positions is problematic until another liquidity dump by Central Banks.”
  • From Friday -“ Short term play - Short - France, BNP and related banks may have some more short term downside them.” Those of you who shorted the rally in BNP and related banks should get rewarded today. This, also may turn into a position that could last through France’s May 6th election and beyond.
  • Reality – What is a short term negative for stocks is NOT bad for long term economics. If you impose too much austerity, the unemployment rate skyrockets, creating fewer taxpayers and more in need of welfare of incarceration.

  • From Friday – High risk trade – If APPL keeps going down, I may purchase some before earnings or in a dip after earnings.” Still an option. Reasoning – Hopefully AAPL will drop to a technical support level [See Paul's comments] That, and the fact that an earnings miss seems to be getting baked into its Tuesday earnings reports, puts the odds (especially for traders) in your favor.

.

*************************

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PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Looking at the futures, it appears it’s going to be a down day. French elections show France is about to come to its senses and toss out the austerity regime. It looks like the great unwashed really don’t like what they see in the banksta controlled Europe.

Dr Jeffrey Scott, an HGSI user, last night hosted a great Sunday evening webinar (which I posted a link to Friday and Saturday in the comments section). Great review of the condition of the market and an excellent AAPL chart review. I trust some of you folks caught the webinar.

I posted the following chart review of Your Stock List Saturday for you weekend stock addicts, in case you slept in here is a repeat.

NOTE: at the start of each month we review Your Stock List for additions and deletions, kindly make any suggestions that you might have for the list via email to Barr.

.

TRADERS

.

CMG – Broke the 17 Friday after it’s earnings release was not well received, buy the dip? See comment:

DLTR – great chart, continues toward the BIG dollar in the sky!  Slightly extended. Using the Ian Woodward/HGSI proprietary “High Jump Indicator” I estimate  DLTR will be an “extended stock” in the area of 101 to 106. at which point you’ll probably will get a pull back or basing.

ENB – 52 week high,

FAST – broke down through the 50, HGSI indicators are red

FL – basing, on the 17

HD – excellent tight chart, buy any dip market conditions permitting

IBM – looks like a bit of profit taking from the old dog. ALL HGSI indicators are red, below the 50.

IMAX – HGSI indicators have turned red, two red/down Kahuna’s the past few days, sitting below lower Bollinger Band, needs to cross up through the middle BB (25.74) before a buy is “safe”.  ** Previous comment from beginning of the month remains, middle of BB is now 23.80.

KLAC – basing on the 17

LEN – great earnings report, gapped up yesterday, buy any pull back. ** Previous comment from beginning of the month, LEN promptly broke down with the market and now sitting on the 50, if it holds above the 50 may be buyable IF housing reports start to improve.

MA – tight chart, buy any dip, buy any dip market conditions permitting

MNST – what a monster of a chart, buy any dip! ** Previous comment from beginning of month remains!

SWI – basing on the 50 & 17, free parking as they say!

TSCO – nice tight chart, buy any dip, buy any dip market conditions permitting

URI – nice $4 pop on earnings release.

WATCHERS

.

AKRX – sitting  below the 50 and crossed up through the 17 Friday, basing, HGSI indicators turning green.

BKI – woof!

KOG – below the 50, below the 17

RYL – sitting below the 50 and the 17, LEN has a better chart and that chart isn’t much better.

DUMPSTERS


SIMO – gapped up on a story of AAPL semi chips being in short supply

CATM – woof, woof, woof!

FTK – buy at your own risk.

Disclaimer - all comments for education only, buy or trade at your own risk. At time of writing I don’t own any of the stocks listed and have been 100% in cash for the past 3 weeks.

.

*******************

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Spanish Bond over 6% = Changed to NEUTRAL

.

This has happened.

Add To This

Continued Meltdown in

European Markets.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.


NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 20, 2012

Bad Credit/Easy Loan

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

Bad Credit/Easy Loan

.

.

Investors411 Readers Report

It’s Easy To get A Loan.*

.

.

Banksta

.

You Know the Story

Greedy Unregulated Banks

invent Casino Extraction System

(See blog posts Feb 12th through 29th)

Almost Bring Down Financial System

by over leveraging and bad loans

.

Paul Volcker

.

.

The Volcker Rule, NOT to return to

the regulated capitalism that

worked for 60+ years, but to more

mildly regulate banksters is getting

delayed & picked apart by banksters

and the right wing

.

.

Is the Banksta agent

with a huge Pinky Ring Back

Just 3+ Short Years After the

Meltdown?

.

  • Capital One & GM Financial are making “loans to those with “less-than-flawed-credit.” (NYT)
  • Equifax reports 1.1 million new credit cards in December to borrowers with damaged credit
  • HSBC and JPM/Chase are back in sub-prime (NYT)


Annette Alejandro is happy sorting though the the piles of credit card offers she has. She’s unemployed, had her car repossessed, and is fresh out of bankruptcy (NYT)

.

They’re Back

,

.

Why should Banks practice Capitalism?

Why should the seek out only the best clients,

When massive profits come from bundling loans

& selling them in the unregulated, over leveraged

$600 trillion casino or derivatives market?

.

_____________

.

*I certainly don’t want to imply any of you have bad credit

Inspiration and some data came from this weeks Brookline TAB editorial

.

*******************

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STOCKS

.

.

France and Eurogeddon?

.

  • Investors411 Readers understand that the reason banksters gave loans to so many troubled countries is the had the unregulated, over leveraged massive casino/derivatives market to back them up.
  • Now just like in the USA. Too Big To Fail Banks and Countries are threatened.
  • Will gains be privatized by the banks and risk socialized by the voters of each country?
  • First Round French Election Sunday and polls say (pro bankster, pro more austerity) Sarkozy is behind
  • Potential Eurogeddon? - This stock chart of France’s largest bank BNP shows a 30+% drop in a month and a -4.86% drop yesterday

.

Sure looks like

some sort of PANIC

in a French

“Too Big To Fail ” bank

.

___________

.

The Pain in Spain

Gets Worse

.

.

.

  • The Problems in France are negatively Impacting Spanish bond yields.
  • Despite, a successful over hyped auction of Spanish bonds yesterday the rates this AM got over the critical 6%.
  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates currently at 5.94% at 6:50 EDT.

.

For Investors/Traders

How to Play Europe’s

Political/Economic Problems

.

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

  • Here’s the view of PIMCO’s #2 Mohamed EL Erian on same subject.
  • The reoccurring cycle of Central Bank Liquidity coming to the rescue will happen but when?
  • Holding a full boat of long positions is problematic until another liquidity dump by Central Banks.
  • Short term play – Short - France, BNP and related banks may have some more short term downside them

______________


  • AAPL earnings report on Tuesday is the big news this side of the pond. Looks like traders are expecting less than the usual stellar results.
  • High risk trade – If APPL keeps going down, I may purchase some before earnings or in a dip after earnings.

.

*************************

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PAUL’S Corner

.

.

A bucket of what?

,

Many times we have discussed using the Bollinger Band to evaluate a stock and a major stock index. It’s one of my favorite tools and one that’s constantly suggested by my good friend Ian Woodward (HGSI).

One of our fellow HGSI users, Dave Steckler posted a great blog last evening briefly explaining Ian’s Bucketology.

Enjoy:  LINK

As you all know, I reply on HGSI for stock selection and searching. I’m pretty good at top down searching and reading the charts to find what I’m comfortable with spending my wife’s money on.

But if you are a wee bit lazy, HGSI has some very good searches that are handed to you each evening with some excellent stocks.  One of my favorites is “The Best of Woodward and Brown”. Here are last evening selections from this search:

ALLT, ACAT, MPEL, MODL, NQ, PII, SCSS, SXCI, TPX, URI

Pretty good looking stocks handed to you and a down day in the market!

My usual worthless disclaimer applies

blah blah blah blah

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond over 6% = Change to NEUTRAL (LTO)

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Very Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.




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April 17, 2012

Cheaters

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Why fighting for

Openness, Accountability

and Honesty

is the Good Fight

Biggest business scandals of all time

..

Charles Ponzi

Corruption in Business

What Does It Cost?

.

Very occasionally the crimes of the plutocracy become so transparent that despite all their lawyers and lobbyists they are caught

.

A Rouges Gallery

.

Biggest business scandals of all time

.

Charles Keating

.

Keating’s  Savings and Loan debacle of the 1980′s. His company went from +781 million to -4.6 billion in one year. 5 Senators took $300,000 from Keating. By 1989 the estimated cost of the Keating scandal had reached $500 billion.

(Source Wikipedia – my guesstimate that about $2 trillion in today’s dollars.)

.

Due to time considerations and the get a life factor -

I’m just going to list a few infamous plutocrats


.

Biggest business scandals of all time

.

Ivan Boesky

Inspiration for Gordon Gekko movie

.

Biggest business scandals of all time

..

Bernard Ebbers

World Com

.

Biggest business scandals of all time

.

Dennis Koslowski

TYCO

.

Business scandals

.

Richard Scrushy

Health South Corp.

.

Biggest business scandals of all time

.

Ken Lay & Jeff Skilling

Enron

Most Plutocrats are NOT Caught

If They are, They Don’t Go to Jail

.

Here a Long List from Wikipedia of more Scandals. Do Your own research you can find hundreds more.

______

.

Legalized Theft

Banksta deregulation &

The 2008 Financial Meltdown

.

.

What Investors411 supports is

Openness

Accountability

&

Honesty

.

Right Wing’s Response

Declare War On

.

.

Welfare Mothers

Who Cheat the System

.

_____________

.

Who is the bigger cheat or

threat to

.

  • a meltdown in the Financial System.
  • A devaluation of your home price
  • Costing you a job
  • Adding to the deficit.
  • Cheating your stock investment
  • Bringing on a recession/depression
  • Taking your Democracy.

The Welfare mom

or the Plutocrats?

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*******************

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STOCKS

..

Sorry, Limited time this AM.

.

  • Spanish bonds  DOWN significantly (2.72%) to 5.905 at 8:30 EST. = Bullish
  • GS had better than expected earnings report and raised dividend
  • Biggest news is AAPL’s earnings report next Tuesday

******************

For foreseeable short term future – As long as the Spanish 10 year bond rate is above 6.00% and growing, the outlook will remain NEUTRAL.

Below 6.00% Outlook CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

,

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.







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April 16, 2012

Spain/Pain

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,
.
.
First thing to look at this AM and every AM is Spanish (and Italian) 10 year Bond Prices
.
At 6:00AM EST
Spanish bonds are ABOVE 6.00%
.
Bad News
.
.
up 2.41%
.
to 6.12%
_______

Latest price before publication at 8:00
.
Better News

Spanish Bond Prices Falling
Moving in Right Direction
.
6.08%
.
At 9:20 EST Spanish Bonds back below 6%
Even Better
.
5.99%


.
********************
********************
,

STOCKS

.

.

Our major Problem is

We no Longer Practice Capitalism in most of

The Financial Sector

See Feb. 13 through 29th Blog Posts

.

But instead run

A globalized interconnected extraction system –

an unregulated, over leveraged casino

or

a $600 trillion dollar derivatives market.

..

.

Friday we saw the first signs of

PANIC

as investors remembered the 2008 Meltdown

“Deja vu all over again”

.

_________

.

The Same Old Story

.

Just like in the years preceding 2008 banksters lent out money to  mortgage customers that were poor risks. They did the same in Europe to countries. Banksters, thought they were protected, because the bundled and sold debt on a massive opaque, unregulated, derivatives market.

In 2008 they were not protected as Lehman collapse, was the last straw, in a   systemic worldwide credit meltdown.

Friday was a Disaster for

.

.

FINANCIALS

.

Nobody really knows how far over leveraged these globalized interconnected giants are to the now troubled Euro bond market in Spain and Italy.

.

Therefore Bankstas got toasted

.

  • DB - Germany’s largest TBTF lost 4.65%
  • BNP – Frances’s largest TBTF lost 6.24%
  • BAC – USA’s largest TBTF lost 5.34%

Others TBTF’s

got toasted too

.

See Sunday’s comments for more.

______________.

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

You’d think Central Banks would do everything possible to drive down Spanish bond yields early today.

We’ll See.

7.00% is the generally acceptable figure that a meltdown could occur. We got over those levels late last year several times, but it looked like we were out of the woods as rates fell below 5.00%.

Obviously, we are not at 7.00% yet. But the steady 6 week rally to the high of the year has spooked bankstas and their investors across the world.

It is simply beyond me to predict when, where, how or if, Central Banks will intervene. They have done so in the past – Investors411 refers to this as the cavalry coming to the rescue.

FYI – Bankstas are going to spin they are afraid of regulations. Therefore they got toasted. It could be that regulators have forced them to stop over leveraging so profits are less – but I doubt it.

.

Above Expectations Earnings could mute some of the Panic over rising bond prices.

.

***********************


PAUL’s Corner

.

..

I spent the weekend driving fence posts in the garden instead of my usual leisurely tour of the markets. I did however get a few minutes to look at the charts using HGSI and EdgeRater and was about to copy some of the charts for today’s Paul’s Corner when I checked my fried Stephen Gerritz’s blog and I see Steve did all of the work for me. I posted a link to Steve’s blog in a Paul’s Corner Extra in the comments section Saturday afternoon.

Stephen Gerritz Blog Link:

Pretty good market analysis and with just 6 charts! That’s all you need for market analysis you ask? Eh, pretty much. If you hadn’t noticed, I pretty much rely on what the charts tell us and leave the nuts and bolts of the market for Barr to sort out.

So what do those charts tell us? Take a look at the 5th chart down on Steve’s blog, the Woody Indicator Chart.

Image Link:

The Woody Indicator is a proprietary indicator created by Ian Woodward from HGSI. Using this indicator to look at the VIX (The Volatility Index) we can see it is currently up in the “Run For The Hills” zone. The Woody Indicator is suggesting extreme caution in the market at this time.

I see Steve added a Blog Addendum 04 14 2012 Sunday afternoon where he provided a link to Fred Richard’s latest newsletter. Take a few minutes and read Fred’s comments particularly his AAPL comments:

“Apple represents about 20% of the total NASDAQ valuation. Unfortunately, it just broke its 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-December 2011.According to the latest data from MarketSmith™, 130 funds closed out their positions in Apple. Perhaps, investors should be increasingly nervous about the direction of a market that only moves up on low volume.”

So while the great unwashed were merrily chasing AAPL up the flag pole, the institutions were slowly but surely unloading AAPL.

So my friends, between the Woody Indicator being up in the rafters, AAPL dumping by the institutions, is this market safe? Barr even woke up from the weekend snooze to post a market warning in the comments section Sunday afternoon.

On a personal note, at the HGSI Work Shop group dinner Saturday evening, I had the great pleasure of sitting next to Fred during the dinner. That man is amazing, a great industrialist, educator and market expert.

Oh, let me tell you, for some odd reason it was easier setting fence posts 20 years ago….I can’t figure out why!


******************

For foreseeable short term future – As long as the Spanish 10 year bond rate is above 6.00% and growing, the outlook will remain NEUTRAL.

,

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Downgrade to

NEUTRAL/

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 10, 2012

Mr Burns/ The Simpsons

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

.

First  -  A Fun

Quiz

Slowly scroll down, because answers are on the bottom

(I got 9 of 14 right)

.

.

Pass it on

Source and facebook link

.

****************************

.

STOCKS

.

Italy (Pictured Above)

.

___________

.

Eurogeddon is

One Step Closer

this AM

.

Meltup in Bond Yields Continues


  • Italian 10 year bond yield is rising this AM, (up 1%) but not past Thursday’s high. 5.54% (8:15 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone but along with Spain in a month long meltup thats increasing in speed.
  • Spain’s 10 year bond yield moving in concert with Italy. Up 2.99% to  5.92% (6:15AM EST)

We have a problem

.

It sure looks like the

Central Banks are losing control

in Europe.

.

.

Where The Hell is the

Cavalry???

__________

.

Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell  to -76.92. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) We are in oversold territory at @-60.  MO is  = Bullish
  • 6 month chart of MO. & a three year chart. Remember – The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms.  Check out the charts. Last dip was to - 85 in March, then -110 in November and then a 3 year low of -140 last April.

.

Fundamentals Trump Technicals

.

.

The Meltup in Bond Yields

Trumps our Bullish MO

.

**********************

.

  • Spanish bonds over 6% will change the log Term Outlook to NEUTRAL.
  • Technically we do have a buy the dip possibility, but its getting trumped. So let’s wait for a lower MO.
  • US markets, especially AAPL, holding up surprising well, despite Europe’s troubles.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Very Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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March 27, 2012

The Death Star

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

The USA’s Plutocracy’s

Death Star


.

.

Grows Bigger

.

Rich Get RicherIn 2010 a staggering 93% of the additional wealth ($288 billion) created from 2009 went to the richest 1%. Story

.

Too Big To Fail Bankstas Get BiggerThe top 5 US Banks have cornered 95.7% of the  opaque casino/derivative market in the US – $230.8 Trillion. That’s trillions with a TStory

.

Et Tu Apple - Instead of poring money in R&D, working with gov’t to create jobs, or even improving Chinese workers lives – after Steve Jobs death – APPL announces a dividend and stock buy back that most benefits the wealthy plutocracy

.

Pink Slime Scandal - Ammonia treated leftovers injected into 70% of US hamburger revealed. Under Secretary of Agriculture Joann Smith who approved Pink Slime makes at least a million working for Beef Industry after quitting government. (Thanks JS for heads up on this)

.

Millionaire/Billionaires Buy Politicians - Now plutocracy members give contributions of $15 to $20 million to presidential candidates or their parties. The US becomes more like a dictatorship backed by wealthy plutocrats each day.

.

Hidden DonationsYou can’t, but the Plutocracy can hide it donations. Seecurity and Exchange Commision (SEC) refuses to make corporations reveal their hidden donations. Story

.

.

Every Day the Gilded Age of Wealth for America’s Plutocracy grows brighter and brighter.

Every Day your rights, power and financial well being in a democracy grow dimmer and dimmer.

.

Never has their takeover of government

been more transparent.

.

Yet through media manipulation, fear mongering, and distraction they pull the wool over your eyes.

.

ITS THE GOVERNMENT STUPID

.

- Robert Liberman’s editorial over a year ago in Foreign Affairs on why the Rich in Ameica are Getting Richer and YOU carry them on your backs.

Thanks to Popeye for the Death Star analogy

.

****************

.

STOCKS


.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

Same Headline

.

.

Investors411 Beats The Drums for

The Fed’s (Central Banks) Has You’re Back

.

Most likely senerio – Stocks will hold onto the vast majority of yesterdays melt up and therefore confirm the rally.

.

______________

.

.

Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to -0.36. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) MO now = NEUTRAL
  • 6 month chart of MO.  We just missed our clearer buy signal. MO fell to -50, not -60. It just may be that this Central bank manipulated market is too strong for another big dip. No forecasting tool is 100% accurate. But for those that can handle more risk and are shorter term traders -50 proved to be a good entry point.

.

______________

.

.

Canary in a Coal Mine

.

Investors411 uses two gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield up again  to 5.08% (7:45 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone, but its started to rally again
  • Our USA canary in the coal mine - The US ten year T bill broke out of its trading range two+ weeks ago. Hardly something to worry about yet. Rates have now settled down to  2.24% yield. But rising rates is something to keep an eye on.

.

_____________

.

Swimming With Sharks

Part 2

.

..

In part #1 we went over almost every shark out their investing has better and more comprehensive information than you or I.

.

So how do we

level the playing field?

,

  • Understand the the trend
  • Learn Shark Behavior
  • Use common sense.

Like what it has to say or not Investors411 Winning Record is clearly based on an understanding of trend. It can be found in the OVERVIEW Section of the blog. Additional info in the STRATEGY Section

Let’s start with two examples.

Macro trend – The Fed and other Central Banks are manipulating stock markets. Once you realize the trend, you find a way to measure it and then you have what turns out to be a bullish bias that trumps almost everything from fundamental to technical analysis.

Micro Trend – Lion’s Gate/ Hunger Games (LGF) just had a blockbuster 25% to 50% better than expected opening. Hunger games is a trilogy. Is the stock trending higher? Does the current stock price yet reflect these future unexpected gains?

Part 3 – soon

.

**********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 16, 2012

Vampire Squids

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

.

Vampire Capitalists

.

vampire squid red inside out

.

Matt Taibbi’s

quote on Investment Bank Goldman Sachs –

A great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

However as we’ve seen over the course of the week its not just Goldman, but Republicans, Democrats, all investment banks, lobbyists, plutocrats and a host of wealthy individuals that have turned banking into an industry full of giant vampire squids.

These giant squids are still sucking today.

-

vampire squid illustration


The Blood Sucked

.

  • The rise and fall of the housing bubble.
  • massive loss in homeowner value
  • Banks collapsing others forced to merge
  • Stock markets around world melting down
  • The Great Recession
  • Massive rise in unemployment
  • Collapse threatened from Insurance (AIG) to Conglomerates (GE) companies
  • Stimulus to help (largest chunk a tax cut) increases deficit
  • “Financial Armageddon” threatened

More

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Dylan Ratigan Chart LINK

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  • Massive Debt
  • Outrageous bank fees
  • Declining Investment
  • Incentive to create debt not value
  • Loss of  finances innovation and product quality
  • Major factor in over leveraging European debt crisis
  • Banksters keep all the profits and bonuses
  • YOU pay for their losses

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Tomorrow – The Cover Up and

Some Solutions

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**********************

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Republicans

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Rick Santorum

Releases 4 years of Tax returns

Simple question - If Romney and Gingrich are so proud of their wealth why not release 4 years of their returns like Santorum?

Vampire capitalists like to hide in the shadows

Real capitalist are not afraid of how they honestly earn money

_________

Romney at Bain Capital

Is Romney

a good Businessman?

Three companies are trying to sell a product – In this case the product is a candidate labeled- a Romney, a Santorum and a Gingrich.

  • The Romney company outspends the Santorum company 20 to 1
  • The Romney company outspends the Gingrich company 5 to 1.

The Bottom Line - Santorum is slightly ahead in the polls – Make all the excuses you want, but any business manager with this kind of cash advantage  not able to sell his product by now and obliterate his competition would be hearing these  words

.

You’re FIRED

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*******************

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

  • Mantra -INVESTORS411 has not changed its long term outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”
  • Therefore - “Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back”

Shorter Term

  • AAPL the mother of all stocks had a 5% drop off highs (2% loss for day) and this took stocks down with it. While AAPL did go elliptical, it had above average but not huge volume behind the move.
  • From Yesterday Tom Demark is an analyst  that major firms pay 5 figure amounts to use his advise.  Using one of his indicators roughly based on the fact that AAPL has been up 11 of the last 13 days, we should start to see a correction about now.
  • About a decade ago I was taking technical analysis classes at MIT with my friend Harold and I learned about Demark’s 13 day trend exhaustion Indicator. It has worked far more often than not when I have applied it. It sure worked yesterday.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -27.60. 50 Day Moving Average at +22.71 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Now in a clear falling (bearish) pattern. However, with such a high 50 dma we are near oversold/reversal of trend territory.  But still = NEUTRAL
  • 2 year MO chart This chart shows many reversals in trends  start around -60. Big  meltdowns 10%+ can go to -100 to -140. Since the 50DMA is so high (+23) we start oversold territory at -60 + +23 = -37

Investors411 has used this one simple timing indicator because it has been so successful for over a year.

  • What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping, but a negative trend has started.
  • Italian 10 year bond yield is now at 5.84% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back. But its moved up 5 days in a row. This may be just a technical rebound, but clearly now something to watch especially if  yield goes up at a rapid rate.
  • From Yesterday  - Bottom Line - “An AAPL led technical market correction is very possible. A 2 to 5% correction would be ”healthy” for stocks and a buy the dip opportunity.”
  • A yield approaching 7% would mean European manipulators are loosing control. You can be sure Investors411 will give a shout if the Italian Bond yield gets too high

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Paul’s Corner

A Shot Across The Bow!

Well gang the early shots have been fired across the bow. This bull market may not be over but the signs  point that way. I have linked to two charts of yesterday’s action with the VIX and the TVIX (2x VIX). Down kahuna’s for have been fired and the %B*BW are now up into early warning dangerous territory.

VIX Link

TVIX Link

I’m not going to explain what these charts show as Ian Woodward in his recent video does a great job of explaining. This is an excellent video, and it shows why I follow Ian. He is an excellent teacher. Please watch the video!

Ian’s video explaining these charts

This may be a minor blip in the bull market we have recently enjoyed so be careful, let’s let the market tell us where it is going. At the moment we have been warned, please be careful with any new long trades.

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******************

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 15, 2012

Sucking America Dry

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

“Sucking America Dry”

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  • Monday we covered Levittown – How banks and the government worked together to build America.
  • Tuesday we covered how Lobbyists, “free market” bankstas, and politicians conspired to change the banking regulations that had kept America safe
  • Today we’ll cover some more changes the banksta’s and their politicians made and start to go over consequences.

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“The World’s Biggest

Ongoing Heist”


Once the Banksta lobby found they could shatter regulations protecting Americans and the world, they rewrote the way they did business. They created a…

“A secret casino where  the world’s wealthiest companies and individuals bet trillions in other peoples money – OUR money – exempted from laws that the rest of us have to follow.”

___________

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The CDO

Consolidated Debt Obligation

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  • CDO was the first step. A “monster” bond that consolidated bank  debt (think mortgages). An investment bank would come in and buy that debt/bond and give the original bank a big hunk of cash. The original bank, therefore, wouldn’t have to wait agonizingly long for the homeowner to pay off his 30 year mortgage to profit.
  • This is basically a loan on a loan that blossomed from mortgages into everything from credit card to Greek debt.
  • Investment banksters suckered in everyone to take a pice of the action on these new legal bonds. Of course the rating agencies, who are paid by the bankstas  they rate, rated these new bonds AAA (the best)
  • Bankstas sold shares of these “blended” (good and bad credit risk) bonds to unsuspecting clients under the AAA seal of approval.
  • To protect themselves investment bankstas created a market where you could buy “insurance” against defaulting CDO’s. Except it was not called insurance, because insurance was heavily regulated by the government. It was called…

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Credit Default Swaps

Financial WMD’s” – Warren Buffett

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“Now these monster bonds are bet on in an unregulated private market, so no one has the legal right to see how the deals are being done.” In this CDS gambling parlor you can bet for or against each “monster” bond (CDO).

.

Greed runs wild


No major Bankster has any reason to worry about making a “credit worthy” loan or even make a loan at all, because that’s all chump change net to the $600,000,000,000,000 CDS market

That’s right $600 trillion over leveraged, private, opaque CDS market. Bankstas and the plutocracy can make massive money just betting on the FAILURE or Success of each monster CDO bonds.

Bankstas privatize the gains

and YOU socialized the losses

But that’s tomorrow’s story


See inspiration for this editorial at bottom of blog’s OVERVIEW Section (list of editorials/books)

Quotes above come from Dylan Ratigan’sGreedy Bastards”

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A Must –

Ratigan’s chart on

Bankstas


LINK

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**********************

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The Shameless Plutocrats

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Choking Off what’s Left of

Democracy

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What’s Getting trampled in the Dust of billionaires money is your voice in democracy – Paraphrase from Bill Moyer”s editorial

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*******************

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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  • Some Traders/Investors/analyst were perplexed and amazed at the big rally of lows in the last half hour of trading. YOU should not be
  • MantraINVESTORS411 has not changed its outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.
  • ThereforeAnyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back

Notice who is watching who

  • A major victory for Obama, the US economy, and stocks. The deal on extending both the payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits adds stability and income to the US economy for the rest of the year.
  • AAPL , the mother of all stocks, volume has decreased for 4 straight days. Prices have increased for 8 straight days.
  • Tom Demark is an analyst  that major firms pay 5 figure amounts to use his advise.  Using one of his indicators roughly based on the fact that AAPL has been up 11 of the last 13 days, we should start to see a correction about now.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -15.97. 50 DMA at +22.71 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) With such a high 50 dma we are near oversold territory but still = NEUTRAL

  • What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping loudly and strong because the…
  • Italian 10 year bond is now at 5.65% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back.
  • Bottom Line – An AAPL led technical market correction is very possible. A 2 to 5% correction would be “healthy” for stocks and a buy the dip opportunity. However, in a Central Bank manipulated market we could see equities flatten for a period instead of dip. Long term outlook unchanged.

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********************

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 14, 2012

Bankstas

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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The Cancer of

Banking Deregulation

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The Cancer of deregulation spread slowly at first as the banking lobby gained more power.

US Banks had a two fold problem

  • Banks were losing business to faster growing emerging market banks because of globalization.  Example Chinese trusted their own banks instead of BOA
  • Digitalization of the stock and bond markets crushed investment banks/brokers who used to cash in on the huge spreads between (1/8 and 1/4) bid and ask prices for securities were now valued in 1/100 or 0.01. They lost their cash cow to computers

.

Since the Great Depression, we had kept the banking industry safe by not allowing

traditional banks, insurance companies and Wall Street investment firms to merge.

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That changed in in 1999

The Financial Services Modernization Act

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  • The bank Lobby, with the blessing of the “High Priest of free markets” Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed three Republicans legislators – Gramm, Leach & Bliley – to rip apart the safety net that had protected us since the Great Depression.
  • They found a willing friend in the Clinton White House - A banksta- The former head of the Goldman Sachs Robert Rubin and assistant Larry Summers.

Then came the second blow by bank lobbyists in rewriting financial laws

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The Commodities Future Modernization Act.

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  • Again blessed by “High Priest of Free Markets” Alan Greenspan,, Republican Richard Luger and a host of bipartisan co sponsers brought another devastating blow to banking regulations to the White house
  • It was again accepted by the same banksta crew in the treasury and became law.

This bill removed the capital requirements for banks. These requirements had been the incentive for banks to act as police to insure  their loans.

The old system where banks and their customers wanted each other to pay their debts to profit was gone. The new giant “too big to fail” institutions” could actually make money if loans defaulted.


To paraphrase Dylan Ratigan in Greedy Bastards


It is as if  a car dealer no longer had to make a safe reliable car, but could sell you a car that would explode. Then the car dealer would collect on both the money he made on the purchase of the car and the insurance when the car exploded.

Tomorrow  some of the missing details

How they cheat, CDO, Trillion lost, The coverup and more

But if  you want more now at the bottom of the Overview section has an extensive research biography

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*******************

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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  • From Last Week - Market Fundamentals driving stocks have NOT changed in any dramatic way…a 2 to 5% correction would be healthy…view this as a buying opportunity…still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.
  • Repeat – “INVESTORS411 has NOT changed its outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”

  • Biggest beneficiaries of all this money printing seem to be beaten up sectors. XHB (housing ETF) is Investors411 pick, but there are lots of choices from semi conductors to banking.
  • Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher.  In the case of something like Italian bonds – the yields pushed lower.
  • AAPL Last night on his show Jim Cramer was beating the drums for Apple saying the stock should have jumped to 550 after its earnings report. Now at 503
  • The mother of all stocks is still exploding higher. What started out as climax selling (big move higher in huge volume) never followed through with a second day up in huge volume. Instead volume has dropped. (Use chart link above to see what real big volume looks like for AAPL – This did NOT materialize Friday or Monday)
  • Nevertheless, almost every technical indicator is screaming oversold.
  • Bottom Line – Technicals show that AAPL did not go through a major climax run, so the fall will not be as sever and there should be some waiting buyers who missed out on the rally that will cushion a fall.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +4.82.  50DMA at +22.74 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) With such a high 50 dma we are near oversold territory. = NEUTRAL

  • Repeat - What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping loudly and strong.
  • Italian 10 year bond is now at 5.49% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back.
  • Repeat from last week/yesterday  - “A 2 to 5 % correction would be healthy for the market.” But the canary is chirping

Rally Train

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********************

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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November 22, 2011

Europe’s Sword

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Europe


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Just like in the US mortgage crisis, a whole bunch of banks and their friends took on some questionable European debt.

These sophisticated mega bond holder were happy to buy questionable bonds because they could bundle them and sell the on the opaque Derivatives Market (Credit Default Swaps) – This questionable insurance put additional leverage on the debt.


Gains were privatized and the risk socialized =

Crony “free market” capitalism


The debt in Europe is massive and when the bond rate of a particular country hits 7% (10 year bond) payments become unsustainable. The question becomes who is going to socialize the risk?

The USA has already donate $5 trillion in stimulus, bailouts loans, money printing, taxes etc. because of the 2008 credit crisis which came to a head when Lehman Brothers had $150 billion in bad bond debt.

Now the largest debtor country in Europe has $2.25 trillion in debt approaching  7%. A number, in the past, that has forced other countries into messy “controlled” fluid bankruptcies. Also meltdowns on global stock markets.


Who is going to Socialize the Risk?

Crony “free market” Capitalism


Just like 2008, we don’t even have an accurate accounting of which globalized shadow bank has how much debt. Only that this over leveraged European debt is MASSIVE

European mechanisms for dealing with this debt are structurally weaker the the USA (fodder for another editorial) and the potential size of the debt in HUGE.

Reading the Tea Leaves - Nobody is willing to socialize the risk. So the Sword of Damocles hangs over stock and financial markets around the world.

Perhaps the only thing that will motivate more socializing of the risk is when a too big to fail bank goes belly up becuse it has too much European debt and through the opaque CDS market – fear of worldwide contagion spreads.


******************


Obama’s Stand


Like it or not Obama has drawn a line in the sand on deficit reduction -

The Super committee has now officially imploded. Countries far worse off than ours (Ireland, Portugal, & Greece) have already implemented far more relatively onerous tax hikes and deficits cuts.

Obama’s line in the sand to Congress - I will veto any attempt to undo the automatic cuts if you try to exempt any part of them (Pork = any previously agreed cuts that come into effect if plan is not approved). He will only approve a complete plan.

This president is serious about a comprehensive deficit plan




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STOCKS

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Fundamentals simplified

  • The Bulls case - Emerging markets are basically sound and the USA is picking up steam.
  • The Bears Case - Europe (the world’s largest economic block) has a huge fiscal crisis with no apparent solution.

Yesterday, US markets fell significantly due to European news.

The day after a significant move in one direction is the “confirmation day” It tells us if traders have doubts about the  big loss/gain.

US market open is dominated by European trading, The DAX (Germany’s stocks – by far the leading market in Europe) is up +0.22 at 8:20 AM EST. Expect US markets to follow.

By using the homepage of Stockcharts.com you can follow the DAX and other major European indexes in real time.  Use the “Today in Market chart and highlight the appropriate index. (It’s free)

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********************

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Reading The Tea Leaves


Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to -72.62. 50DMA at +18.29 = Bullish

While we did see a record -140 on the MO in August, a -73 with the 50 DMA at +18 means the market is ripe, technically, for some sort of rebound.

Bottom LineNews from Europe can and will trump the technically bullish oversold US market.

Technicals give us some short term hope, but then there’s the Sword of Damocles.



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******************


Paul’s Corner

What? A big Swoosh? The sound of your grandkid’s inheritance being sucked out of your portfolio? Yup not a great day, but you know the drill today will be up 600, right? As usual Barr gave a great warning last Friday and hopefully you protected your assets.

How would you like to have had a warning on Nov 9 and exit signal on Nov 16? Take a look at Ian Woodward’s (HGSI) latest blog where he discusses %B and Bandwidth.

LINK

Clear as mud eh? Well it’s pretty simple stuff. %B  represents where a stock sit’s in its Bollinger Band and Bandwidth is the actual measurement of the width of the Bollinger Bands surrounding your stock. Using the two you can accurately gauge the health of a single stock or the overall market.

Ian has been preaching this stuff for several years. Recently I questioned Ian about a certain move of the Bollinger Bands of the S&P 1500 index. In our discussion he spotted a way to take the position of the index within its Bollinger Band (%B) and multiply it by the Bandwidth you get a very fast confirming indicator.

Ian’s chart shows the early warnings on Nov 09 and the Outta Here warning on Nov 16.

LINK

This stuff is only a few weeks old and doesn’t have years worth of confirming signals to prove the wealth of this new  indicator,  but from what I see it’s a real silver bullet in the HGSI market analysis tool kit.

YSL 7 is just about finished. Barr and I have a few stocks to kick around, hopefully next Tuesday we will publish.

Happy Thanksgiving all!


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Put/Call Hedge Trades

This is NOT an event driven hedge trade like GMCR or ANF.

Longer Term a Call on AAPL and a Put on AMZN.

Reasoning

  • It’s very hard to make an investment in an events driven market. You have little idea which way stocks will turn.
  • Technically APPL’s chart is much better than AMZN. The later in free fall.
  • Exit strategy – Exit 1/2 the trade with  5+% gain. Let the rest ride.

More in comments section or tomorrow’s blog.

*******************

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Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.


GLD - DGP is the more risky double long gold ETF. 1/2 position added at 173.85.  Sold through a stop order at 165.20 The 1/2 position had a 4.5% loss

USO - (2x oil prices ETF UCO riskier) Back under consideration if/when stocks dip further.

EUO (double short the Euro currency)   1/2 position Bought at 18.60 Friday


*********************


Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

NEUTRAL

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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