Investors 411 Blog

The Empire Forever-Photo from Atlantic

Israel’s Knife in Biden’s Back

VP Joe Biden, who many consider the greatest friend of Israel ever had  in the US Senate, has spent about a week in Israel.  He opened with gushing words of support for Israel. The next day Israel announced 1600 new homes in what Palestinians believe is their land. The far right Israeli government put a knife in the American backed peace process and basically said F— Y– to Obama. Laura Rosen from Politico on reaction

Janet Yellin for Fed Vice Chair

The Fed has an enormous influence over YOUR life. Janet Yellin has been leaked as Obama’s choice.  Almost all extremely well qualified choices like Yelin are quickly approved. But times have changed and politics rule. Experience, Intellectual rigor, have become secondary to political views.

Insults in Afghanistan

Iran’s Ahmadinejad (Add 911 was a CIA conspiracy, plus the old holocaust didn’t happen to his list of pronouncements) and Sec. of Defense Gates traded insults while both were in Afghanistan. Both visited so called “President” Karzai. Story link from foreign press.

A BRIC Wall

BRIC = the emerging market giants Brazil, Russia, India and China who many seem to think are taking an opposing view to US policy – On the front burner, see National Interest piece, on blockingsanctions for Iran

Public Option’s Last Try

Bernie Sanders will introduce the public option sooner rather than later

Empire Forever

Robert Kaplan has an outstanding piece in the Atlantic on Afghanistan & the American Empire.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Almost the exact same as yesterday-” Another melt up day in decreased volume.” This is now a mantra. Volume is NOT confirming the move higher.

Again same as yesterday – “As suggested yesterday the XLF (ETF for financial stocks) was one of several possible catalysts for continuing the rally. As the chart shows, its broken out to new highs over the last two days in increased volume. Basically, any meaningful attempt to shadow institutions and bring transparency to related markets is getting crushed. Therefore, it sure looks like the shadow financials  will add fuel to the stock rally.” This move higher is being led by Citigroup which move up &% yesterday and traded an overwhelming billion+ shares again.  This stock, like IMAX,  is going elliptical and expect it to run out of juice today.

The benchmark S&P 500 closed directly on its 18 month high. Obviously, momentum is with the bulls.

3 positions are open on the Fed and Janet Yellen has been leaked as the choice.

Retail numbers [just came in much better than expected = rally ho] and consumer confidence this AM – Both significant fundamentals that can move the market.

As long as mild melt ups continue outlook remains bullish.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell a bit to +60.06 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. Last week the NYMO reached a high of 75.33. It looks like we could get above that. So there is room for a short term trade, but longer term overbought = sell
• BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks. After flattening for a few days it is once again moving higher = Bulls rule

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From Yesterday “ IMAX – has exploded higher in HUGE volume.  It has “gaped” higher three days in a row.  In short, its going elliptical. That means expect a pull back. IMAX also reports earnings today.” IMAX “gapped” higher at the open again and was up over 7% and ended the day down 1.00% in HUGE  volume.  Best read of tea leaves is IMAX will take another day or two to settle then consolidate of move up. 

Mistake was to not sell some IMAX when stock “gapped” higher.(Up 7%)

From yesterday “Shorter term traders – Even though we are overbought, it sure looks like the McClellan will reach above 80 sooner rather than later. You might want to go long with TYH(3X technology) or FAS (3X what financials do) Buy a dip and keep tight stops.” Bought a 10% (Of portfolio) position in TYH at 151.50. Put stop at that 151.5 and may sell 1/2 for 3 to 5% gain hopefully today. TYH closed at 154.99

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Bubble’s Bursting

YOU feel like you’re standing in a room and looking around with everyone else to see if anyone else notices there’s a massive time bomb about to go off and no one is doing anything about it. You watch politician’s babble about cutting waste, foreign aid or welfare recipients and realize that’s what’s been done for 20 years and there’s less than 2 or 3% of this budget left to cut. Here’s the naked reality

• Medicare & Medicaid are going to explode in cost as baby boomers reach retirement
• Social Security payments are going to explode too. Each of these entitlements alone dwarfs political babble about cutting waste etc.
• Military/weapons spending exploding higher and now is the #1 government spending category
• Tax cut advocates are screaming for more and crashing planes into buildings
• Our shadow financial system has drained trillions in further resources and remains in the shadows.
• Health care cost are exploding out of control
• Massive private debt (credit card,housing,job loss etc) is driving many Americans into despair.
• Massive debt crisis in US  trade
• Housing bubble has burst

When you consider all this it seems like a miracle that Obama has kept the American economy & the stock market afloat.  Politicians on every side think more their own power instead of getting something done.  You get so sick & tired of listing to politicians blaming others and calling for “a dose of reality” instead of sitting down together and getting something done. Meanwhile – Tick Tock, Tick Tock, Tick Tock – BOOM.

Investing Bottom Line – These financial liabilities and our inability to solve them are why it is  no longer safe to buy and hold US equities.  The potential of financial bubbles growing and bursting are just too great. Our government just too polarized. It’s hard to see a decade without continued financial meltdowns.

Death Toll = 1000 in Afghanistan

Obama has joined Cheney/Bush and continues to try to nation build in Afghanistan. US on Feb 19th reached 1000 casualties.  Obviously, the surge of American troop here has a lot to do with upcoming wars in Iran (Afghan. & Iraq surround Iran) and Pakistan (Afgan also boarders Pakistan).  We’ve seen our military budget double over the last decade and its continuing to grow perhaps faster than Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

US Consumer Confidence plunged yesterday. The monthly index had just hit a 16 month high and it plunged yesterday. Simply put Consumers are worried about the economy. They make up @ 70% of GDP.  After a solid 3 month rise the unexpected fall from 56 to 46 could means the consumers fell like they took it on the chin last month. This is bad news for the US economy, but many US stocks are rebounding because of Asian and Emerging market growth.

There is obviously a disconnect between US stocks and the US economy US Stocks can rise without the US economy because many of them rely on profits from abroad.  But, Europe is in trouble and emerging markets alone are not big enough to carry the res of the world.

Markets fell as volume rose. Volume was slightly above average. Would have expected more volume. Surprised that US markets did not fall further.  Another indication that many long term investors are simply not interested in stocks = Bearish signal

Two Major events today. Toyota’s embattled CEO & Bernanke in front of congress

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Index fell to +18.33. + or – 60 is our overbought/sell or oversold/buy levels.  +18.33 is approaching neutral or 0

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) – These are positions I actually own

Sold another 1/3 0f TYH at 131.35 for a +6% gain. I’ve also set what’s called a stop/sell orders  on

• recently bought (added to) EWZ at @ 2% above what it was bought for
• 1/2 of MOO, a longer term position.
• The remained of THY

This is just protecting gains before they turn into losses

McClellan Oscillator is not close to buy or sell position.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

John Pilger, photo from his website

Radicals? Or Are They Right?

Yesterday several of you made comments and suggested listening to views that mainstream US media ignores or would call Left wing radicalism.  Are they Right?

• Jeremy Scahill – (from Sherwehe ) – An Independent journalist – We really have 189,000 troops & mercenaries on the ground in Afghanistan now. “Obama administration blows the Bush administration out of the privatized water.” LINK
• Matt Taibbi – (from M ) – Rolling Stone reporter on The Great American Bubble Machine How unregulated free markets have caused financial disaster. (yep we’ve referenced him before) LINK
• John Pilger - (from Bob Sadinsky ) Australian who twice won British journalist of the year award. “What Matters Above All is The Class One Serves” Obama says one thing and does another.  One powerful video LINK & “Obama’s most audacious lie is that Afghanistan today is a “safe haven” for al-Qaeda’s attacks on the West. ” LINK

I know that there are many of you who read this blog and are more conservative or major Obama supporters – You often email me. If you remain silent one can only assume that YOU think Scahill, Taibbi, and Pilger are right. These three authors have pretty much shredded Obama’s foreign and financial policies , and even called him a “liar” and “hypnotist.” Are they right?

Did the US military launch a quit coup in the USA and is Obama part of it?

Note if you have technical trouble in publishing a response on the blog send it to me and I’ll publish it.

Jeremy & Matt

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Again a late rally lifted stocks.

• McClellan Index at +31.70 = A bit overbought.   There is still some wiggle room for US stocks to move even higher before they reach @+60 or overbought territory -  There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or oversold.
  

The McClellan Oscillator is showing less room for upside gain.   However, technically this chart shows a series of 4 higher highs and a solid base at zero – It’s bounced 3 times off this number and is now a short term buying point.

Earnings season has begun – Alcoa’s report disappoints  and Chevron warned. Not good fundamental news to start the day

The long term bull is trend is firmly in place, but we are too close to overbought territory. Bigger risk to the downside in the short term. Look for US markets to get spanked today

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Bought a 1% of portfolio position in IMAX – at 13.9

YOUR Watch List of Stocks . Unfortunately, I’m not daily checking these stocks out. Ideally, you’d like to McClellan index below zero (the further the better) and these all would be better buys. We developed these potential stocks about two weeks ago. Check old Investors411 for more.

• IMAX
  
• SEED – Broke out to new high yesterday Missed buying opportunity as the stock formed a short term base – Mistake Would buy a dip
  
• AAPL – forming a base near top. If markets move higher so should AAPL
  
• AMZN – a buy the dip opportunity. Again will move with market.
• HMIN – Recently broke out to a new high – Possible buy the dip.
  
• CAAS – Exploded to new high last week in huge volume. Too over extended to buy
  
• PCLN – Possible buy the dip opportunity
  
• F – Huge rally. Way too over extended to buy
• DRWI

SEED, HMIN, PCLN, & AAPL seem like best choices – But would like overall markets to be more over sold before buying. SEED is the stock that seems to have the best possibility this second. I’m not as comfortable with individual stocks as ETF’s.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

A Financial Dr Strangelove

Larry Summers , Obama’s chief economic adviser, is the financial Dr Strangelove of this administration. Ever since his nomination was first suggested, Investors411 has strongly objected to his controlling influence in our economic policy. Summers was the protogee of Goldman Sachs CEO Robert Rubin. He took over as Sec. of Treasury under Clinton and approved laws that gutted consumer/taxpayer financial protection.

Summers, has time after time backed the unregulated capitalism, that even Alan Greenspan has admitted was a mistake.  The latest expose comes from the $1.8 billion that vanished from when he was President of Harvard University. Boston Globe LINK

Summers has over ruled the voices of reform within the Obama administration.

Trickle Down Economics

Summers and the Obama administration are running the same kind of trickle down economics that widened the gulf between the rich and poor under Ronald Reagan . They’ve continued Paulson’s (Bush’s Sec. of Treasury) socializing the risk for the wealthy and making the middle class taxpayers pay.

Wall Streets wealth (rise in stock prices & shadow bank bonuses) is being led by rebounding emerging markets and American companies investing their money and jobs abroad.  The reason the Russell 2000 (smaller companies) lag the other major US indexes is they do less business abroad. Big Shadow banks (up collectively well over 100%) are getting bailed out with trillions of dollars (both printed money and your tax $) Main Street gets chumb change.

Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman editorial in NYT states on jobs”There’s a pervasive sense in Washington that nothing more can or should be done, that we should just wait for the economic recovery to trickle down to workers. This is wrong and unacceptable. “ LINK

He offers the following jobs solution LINK

The Bigots Demonstrate at Our School

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

For the moment the Dubai economic meltdown has stabilized because oil rich Abu Dhabi has promised to bail out the over leverage Mid east playground for the ultra wealthy. Volume, was, of course up over the 1/2 day trading Friday, but still below average. 3 of the 4 major indexes (not small caps – Russell 2000 – This index makes most of its profits from within the USA) have all achieved higher highs - Bullish Hopefully they are now in proves of achieving higher lows.

Repeating mantra = The dollar rules – The trend here is a moderate or slow decline of the dollar.  What would reverse this is an event like an attack on Iran – stocks would fall & the dollar would rise.  Perhaps, technically, there could be a short term rise in the dollar.

Obama’s Afghan speech tonight – Escalation in war, to a rational person, would ususally mean an immediate drop in stocks.  But, these are NOT rational times.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI fell -87 points yesterday and closed at 3887. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1700 points since late September. After 16 up days in a row, now, 8 down days in a row & down through the former resistance/now support level 0f 4291 .

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets. Recent price drop-Nothing to panic about yet

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar fell an insignificant -0.17% yesterday . The dollar closed at $74.80 . 

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at -17.07 This is a slightly Oversold Position . This chart is showing we seemed to haveave reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month,. Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)

From Friday – Probably going to take some profits today (sell 1/3+ positions) in FXI, EWZ, GLD & all of DGP. Hopefully, will get a chance to buy back into these positions when the McClellan Index gets oversold. Personally I did sell/take profits on 1/3 of FXI & all of DGP . No one ever went broke taking profits – but right now this move looks like a mistake.

List of positions & percent of portfolio (see positions section for more)

16% FXI

16% EWZ

11% GLD

10% MOO (agriculture ETF – more later on this)

5% AMZN (stock)

5% NVS (stock)

5% BRSIX – not listed in Investors411. A small cap mutual fund that I’ve owned for almost a decade ( I liked the company because they gave a lot of profits back to charity)

10% -  3 Bonds – not listed in Investors411 that I’ve owned for years.

sometimes @15% in day & swing trading I do not discuss in Investors411 & the rest in cash.

Best recommendation – It’s time to buy some protection. Iran, lost a 25 to 3 vote in the UN regarding their desire to achieve nuclear weapons or nuclear power (if you trust Ahmadinejad believe the later) The chances Israel or the USA will attack is growing. Obama committing more troops to Afghanistan further surrounds Iran. The price of oil will skyrocket if their is an attack. Yesterday Iran’s navy picked up some Britsh racing ship.

Some other terrorist event may occur reguarding oil.

So, on dips, buy the commodity oil. I have to check this out further, but the appropriate commodity (not company based) ETF’s seem to be USO & OLO (OLO does 2x what oil does) The later is very thinly traded. Going to work up to 10% of portfolio.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The 2nd Maine Militia’s Gazette

To paraphrase the 2nd Maine Militia (See Nov. 17 blog) it’s not about left vs. right, Democrat vs Republican, but up versus down . So let’s take a look at a brand new news outlet only found here  at Investors411. In the style or philosophy of the 2nd Maine Militia – here’s how their paper might look.

• Headline – Crisis in Duba i – Thousands have died (from Bangladesh, Philippines, India and other poor countries) building a wealthy playground for the uber rich Arabs. A place where wealthy Americans and Iranians can rub elbows built on the backs/lives of third world labor.
• The private company that created this years hottest American holiday present the Zhu Zhu dolls/pets has just announced a proposal for three new factories. Sorry no factories in Maine or the USA – they’re all in China.
• Front page editorial-Keeping the Masses Distracted – Will someone tell us why CNBC and CBS business news feature stories are -  the selling of Michel Jackson’s rhinestone glove, the scratches on Tiger Woods face (wife or car accident) & the latest block buster teen vampire movie?  This is America Corporate media news.
• Another local bank collapses . The big shadow banks that caused the financial meltdown are getting bigger with our money while their competition – the small local Maine/USA banks continue to fail in record numbers.
• Guest editorial from Robert Reich – The 3 classes of Americans – #1 Those 25% of Americans whose kids are on food stamps, #2 those Americans who are managing, but worried about loosing value of homes & jobs #3 Those few Americans who have taken home even more winnings since 2007 like Goldman Sachs executive. LINK

Some of you may think that our fictitious Gazette is over the top. It does focus on the ugly side of globalization and unregulated wealth creation (sometimes  misnamed capitalism or free markets). It does pacifies the reader with obsessions about celebrity.  Maybe the scratches on Tiger’s face is what will solve the humanities problems and just maybe you’ll think about forming your own 2nd Maine Militia.

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

For the moment the Dubai economic meltdown has stabilized because oil rich Abu Dhabi has promised to bail out the over leverage Mid east playground for the ultra  wealthy.

Big predictable economic news for the week is Bernanke’s approval hearings in front of congress, Obama’s more troops for Afghanistan and the monthly jobless figure on Friday

Black Friday saw a significant increase in traffic and only a o.5% gain in sales according to early reports. reports. Today is Cyber Monday where shoppers do a whole lot of on line Xmas shopping (start of the online buying season)   These numbers are Bearish for retail stores. It probably means far more people were out seeking the bargains and they will do less shopping for the rest of the holiday buying season.

The dominating factor controlling  stocks prices continues to be the dollar.

FEARLESS FORECAST – Last week’s fearless forecast of an up week was crushed by the Dubai crisis .  Markets have rebounded from Dubai across the world and the damage seems limited in investors/traders minds. Looks like we will return to general trend of dollar down and stocks up till Friday’s job numbers. – Outloo k – flat/down week.

Coming up more on - Military escalation in Afghanistan & growing problems with Iraq. Any attack on Iraq would send the dollar higher and stocks lower . Perhaps Obama’s announcement of 30,000+ troops in Afghanistan will have same impact.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell -145 points yesterday and closed at 3994. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1900 points since late September. Now, 7 down days in a row & through the former resistance and now support level 0f 4291.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose a HUGE +1.00% Friday . The dollar closed at $74.98 . The $75.00 support level crashed and burned on Wednesday but, T he Dubai crisis is going send money back into the dollar and out of the stock market.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at -27.62 This is approaching an Oversold Position 

Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)

From Friday – Probably going to take some profits today (sell 1/3+ positions) in FXI, EWZ, GLD & all of DGP. Hopefully, will get a chance to buy back into these positions when the McClellan Index gets oversold. Personally I did sell/take profits on 1/3 of FXI & all of DGP .

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH/NEUTRAL

Dubai On the Brink

Dubai

Another capitalist bubble bursts , as one of the oil Rich Gulf Emirates countries has asked or 6 months forgiveness on debt.  Imagine all homeowners in USA were to skip 6 months of mortgage payments.” Like many Western consumers during the good times, Dubai gorged on debt and borrowed too much to finance a building boom that has gone bust in the downturn. ” NYT LINK

The Dubai debt  is probably between $80 & $90 billion .  Bloomberg story LINK Comparison when Lehman Brothers failed the debt was over $400 billion and a whole lot of other bigger shadow banks were in big trouble.  The US taxpayer bailed them out all the big shadow banks.  Another financial credit bubble bursting of this magnitude is obviously bad for stocks – Asian markets down  3 to 5% today.

Dubai will probably get  bailed out by Oil Rich Gulf Country capital Abu Dhabi . They have a $700 to 800 billion sovereign wealth fund. With oil above $60 they should be able to handle the crisis, and in the end Abu Dhabi and probably Saudi Arabia will gain greater control over the other 7 gulf countries.

What happens is people sell when there afraid and what they sell is those stocks, companies ETF’s that they own. So All our ETF’s are going to get hit . Forget the fact that China’s banks have said they have no exposure to Dubai Our China ETF will get hit. So will Brazil & Gold.

The Right Afghanistan Speech…

That Obama Won’t Give – Steve Clemons (The Washington Note) has an excellent speech by Tom Engelhardt . Clemons is a moderate (backs moderate Republicans like RI’s former Senator Lincoln Chaffee) and if you’ve read his work – an influential intellectual insider not a flame thrower. For Speech See LINK

Your Comments

Check out recent comments on right side of the blog Bob S. has comments on Goldman Sachs and SE on Sarah Palin including a link to a cherry picked, but scary video.

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dubai news is trumping Black Friday today on CNBC – the financial channel this AM.

The dollar is going to explode higher and oil lower.  Stocks are set for at least a 2+% fall at the open.  The real question is what happens on Monday after we see US stocks fall perhaps 3% today.  The Dubai crisis will clearly take time to see just how extensive the fall out will be.  Although much smaller than the US debt meltdown last fall we don’t know the extent of the damage.

When investors don’t know they sell.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell -115 points yesterday and closed at 4340. The up 16 days in a row streak has been broken. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2100 points since late September. Now, 5 down days in a row. through the former resistance and now support level.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar fell a HUGE -1.17% Wednesday. The dollar closed at $74.24 . The $75.00 support level crashed and burned. The Dubai crisis is going send money back into the dollar and out of the stock market.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +16.74 This is a Slightly Overbought Position – stocks are neither oversold or overbought in the short term.

Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)

Probably going to take some profits today (sell 1/3+ positions) in FXI, EWZ, GLD & all of DGP. Hopefully, will get a chance to buy back into these positions when the McClellan Index gets oversold.

Remember, the record shows over the years I’m a much better ETF (stock) picker than market timer . It’s easier to identify a long term mega trend and harder to time it exactly. Events like Dubai are, for me, unpredictable.

If you are a long term investor you may just want to hold onto positions.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH/NEUTRAL

The Patriot Tax

Congressman David Obey (D. WS.) has called for a graduated war tax on all but military families. It’s long past time we went back to making war a shared sacrifice.  Now, we have those who put their lives on the line while phony patriots go to Disney World. Let’s have some real “support” for the troops. Story LINK

Others with more power in Congress are also interested in “a share the sacrifice” tax legislation Story LINK

Unfortunately, It sure looks like Obama plans to send 30,000 to 35,000 more troops to Afghanistan according to many sources. Financial Times LINK

What if at the same time Obama announces nation building in the narco country of Afghanistan he announced a Patriot tax.

Mexico vs. Afghanistan

• Afghanistan’s GDP is $10.2 Billion according the world Bank
  
• Mexico’s GDP is $1,009 Billion
• Afghanistan’s #1 product is illegal drugs and Mexico’s #2 product is illegal drugs.
• Mexico directly employs 450,000 , and indirectly millions in its $25 billion illegal drug industry.
• 14,000 Mexicans have died in last 3 years over drugs and who know how many  American have died directly and indirectly from their drugs or drug war.
• The giant Oil (Mexico’s #1 product) field offshore in Mexico is running out of oil and the Mexican drug problem is growing.
• Corruption abounds in both countries and many accuse the Mexican army of taking sides (one drug cartel over the other) in the drug war
• 17 of Mexico’s 31 states are deemed “narco” states.
• Mexico is on our boarder and Afghanistan is the other side of the world.
  

Americans are dying today from Mexican drugs and drug wars. The Taliban that we are fighting did harbor alQaeda (perhaps 100 left in  Afghanistan) but they are in no way a clear and present danger to the USA. They are not killing Americans outside Afghanistan/Pakistan.  As the drug problem grows in Mexico millions of Mexicans are going to continue to flee the violence & poverty and come to America. You think illegal immigration is a problem now? – Wait.  Which is the greater threat Afghanistan or Mexico?

See story (facts on Mexico from his article) – The Boarder Of Madness , by Philip Caputo in this month’s Atlantic. The Fall of Mexico LINK

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dollar flat = stocks flat

Volume was again anemic. Checkout the chart of the benchmark S&P 500 over this month (on right side of blog) and since early this summer. You’ll see as stocks rally the volume drops.  Volume has NOT worked as a forecasting tool over this period.  But over time/long term it is a clear indicator that fewer people are willing to invest more money in stocks.

Remember the story of the Frog slowly being boiled in water . He doesn’t know what’s happening. The decrease in volume as stocks rise makes me feel like that frog.

However, our Mantra remains - the dollar is dictating stock direction. Its also a dominant factor holding up economic recovery.

FEARLESS FORECAST – Up Week

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell -77 points yesterday and closed at 4340. The up 16 days in a row streak has been broken. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2100 points since late September. 3 down days in a row.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose an insignificant +0.01 yesterday. The dollar closed at $75.12 .  As the chart shows in late Oct the dollar fell $7500 and in mid Nov. went a bit below that.  Again,this is directly above the $75.00 support level.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at -5.67 This is a NEUTRAL Position – stocks are neither oversold or overbought in the short term.

Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)

Some stocks to consider (almost all for short term traders ) I’ve chosen shorter term charts (3 to 4 months), because these  would be shorter term trades.

AAPL – Apple Computer LINK to chart – Its got complete line of hot products that sells word wide & relatively great earnings report. Missed a buy the dip opportunity near Nov.1.  Would buy the dip or when McClellan Index gets to around -60.

GOOG Google – LINK to chart – Along with AMZN & AAPL it makes up a trinity of leading big cap tech stocks. Hit new high yesterday. Too high to buy now.

MS & GS – Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs – MS chart & GS chart These giant shadow banks are had their risk socialized by taxpayers – their competitors didn’t and many have failed.  More business for them. Great profits because they can borrow $ for almost nothing. They have dipped, but overall McClellan Index is neutral. If McC were oversold I’d buy.

BIDU – Bidu - BIDU chart – China’s Google.  If you want to play china and are willing to take bigger risks this company is for you. Buy the dip. Too close to new high right now.

FEED & SEED – AgFeed Industries & Origin Argitech  FEED chart & SEED chart. Have not had time to know what caused the explosion in price & volume of these two stocks over last two days.  However, if you gamble and love risk – buy the first two day dip. Pure technical play.

Long Term Outlook - We are on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Afghanistan

US ambassador, former general/commander in Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry , has “deep reservations ” about sending more troops to Afghanistan. His major objection is corruption in a country’s whose #1 economic product is opium. LINK & LINK

Finally a major columnist has drawn a comparison between spending money on heath care vs. spending money in Afghanistan . NTY’s Nicholas Kristof argues -  are we “better off spending that money blowing up things in Helmand Province or building up things in America.” LINK Lack of health car kills about 45,000 Americans a year and the Taliban in Afghanistan have not exported their violence to the USA.

Sherwehe points out in comments section of the blog LINK 2,200 0f those are veterans who lacked health care according to a Harvard study. If the current figures hold up “This year more veterans will die from suicide than will die on the battle field.” and “800,000 vets live on the street. “

As pointed out before the major problem is Pakistan – 5/6 time the population of Afghanistan and a nuclear power. According to polls and DAWN (leading English speaking Pakistan paper LINK ) views of Americans are deteriorating rapidly.

Bottom Line – We simply can no longer afford to keep nation build around the world. Investors should note this is just another reason to invest in countries that are focused on building their middle classes instead of nation building opium rich country’s like Afghanistan.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dollar rose an anemic +0.07% , & US equities actually managed a minor rally in anemic volume.

The BDI is on fire. (see below) This is very positive for world trade, commodities, and an indicator China is buying.  In the OVERVIEW section of the blog PEAK OIL is mentioned as one mega trend impacting economics and stocks. You might consider peak oil as subset of commodities . As world population and middle classes in emerging markets grow the finite amount of commodities become more expensive.

Patten developing – On Thursday market’s fall in expectation of weekly jobless number and stocks rise on Monday – because of some merger.

The longer the dollar holds above its support level the stronger support becomes.

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 13% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose a VERY significant +133 points yesterday and closed at 3748. Up 11 days in a row. A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed The BDI has rallied about 1600 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now. Especially good for our positions in FXI & EWZ

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar was basically flat +0.07% yesterday. The dollar closed at $75.10 .  This is directly above its, line in the sand, support level. As predicted yesterday – “ Usually a major support level at least temporarily halts any fall.”

The next important resistance level for the dollar is the falling 50 day moving average (blue line on chart). This is at $76.32 this AM . The support level is  a t @$75.00 Both are important lines in the sand. A breakout on either side will move US equities in the other direction and the world will follow.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McCellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +16.70, – Not yet oversold, but moving in this direction,

Key to chart – 0 is roughly  neutral and when you get to @ +60 you are overbought and approaching -60 you are oversold. Buy at oversold and sell at overbought. Nothing is absolute in this chart. In fact using the moving averages as a central point is better than using zero. Nothing is absolute about the minus or plus 60 number either.

Oversold conditions = buy

Overbought positions = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Sorry have not had a chance to update Positions section in over a week

Investors

FXI – China – (now 25% of portfolio) At new high – up over 50+% this year

EWZ- Brazil – (now 20% of portfolio) At new high – up over 100+% this yea r

GLD (now 11% of portfolio) At new high – up over 20+% this year

Comments – NOT the time to buy or add to these positions.  Enjoy the rally.

Going to add Indonesia & Vietnam ETF’s – but waiting for dips. Also going to add DGP (this ETF does about 2x what the GLD does) – More explanation later. As a trade like GS. Again, waiting for dips

Traders (short term plays) These are not ETFs, but individual stocks

Extra Note of Caution here – Even though I always warn you AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! please note I’m far less confident in individual stock picks

NVS – (5% of portfolio)  We’ve already sold 1/2 of this for +12% gain  Now up 16+% since bought

CSCO – (5% of portfolio) Flat since we bought position a few weeks ago . – Going nowhere while markets have moved higher.  Selling soon for @ -1% loss – Hopefully into a rally. Sold 1/2 yesterday for -1% loss

AMZN – (now 5% of portfolio  ) Bought last Wednesday – Sold 1/2  for 11% gain . Like NVS letting the rest ride .

Long Term Outlook – The dollar looks like it may break down through major support and the benchmark S&P 500 is on the verge of a yearly high – Outlook will change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH if/when this happens. Instituted change, but subject to change

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Iran

What was supposed to be demonstrations marking the 29th anniversary of the Iranian revolution turned into a night and day that members of the Green Revolution let their voices ring out. Professor Juan Cole’s website has details and video. Its heatening to see so many protest (“huge crowds”) despite those that have disappeared into Ahmadinejad’s Iranian prison system. LINK

Vietnam & Iraq/Afghanistan – Optimism

Even though many including this blog have focused on the negatives surrounding the “unjustified” invasion of Iraq and long term consequences,there are some major reason for long term optimism.

In Vietnam we used chemical weapons (agent orange) carpet bombing and even resistance was slow to organize. These weapons were not used in Iraq. Democracy was insisted on by Sistani (the #1 Shia religious leaders) and after a year of demonstrations the US relented. In Afghanistan the poll numbers have already turned negative LINK This poll was before the election debacle.

In no way does this excuse our growing nation building disaster in the Mideast under Bush and Obama. But, it is a long term ray of sunlight in an otherwise dark cloud.

US Elections

Republicans won two governorships in NJ and VA formerly held by Dems. The Dems won a congressional seat in NY – formerly heavy Republican district.  Overall a better night for Republicans and bottom line is about the economy.  Three out of mainstream observations

• NJ Democrat Gov. candidate was a mucky muck at Goldman Sachs.  GS & Wall Street are loved about as much on Main Street as the New York Yankees outside NY metro area.
• The “conservative” running in NY congressional race considered radical right wing FOX commentator Glenn Beck “his hero.”  He had huge support from the “tea bagger” or dominant wing of the Republican party.
• Long time incumbents spent huge money and had difficulty getting elected – example mayors Bloomberg in NYC and Menino in Boston.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

This is the last post for the week

Friday’s jobs report is the news for the week .  What we have is an oversold market going nowhere. Wall Street term for this is “churning.” Because we are so oversold a good jobs number (loss less than 200,000) would probably move market higher.  Oversold also limits downside risk.

Best Read of Tea Leaves – We will not get a sub 200,000 number.

For traders – A high unemployment figure means the stimulus will keep flowing  and I’d buy the dip. Even though everyone is watching Friday’s employment figure – keep an eye on the dollar. If we have a significant break through of the resistance level expect a meltdown in stocks as the dollar rises.

In Asia and Europe oversold markets rallied last night, so this could carry a positive bias to the USA today.

FOMC meets to day – expect no change.  Any changes in wording would be negative and a shock.

The Dollar War - (Part 2) The big news of the day was India buying $6.7 billion dollars worth of gold from the International Monetary Fund. This is an investment in gold not dollars. Still, obviously central banks did buy enough dollars to halt any dollar decline yesterday.

FYI - Best 25 preforming stocks since Obama’s election LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 24% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose a significant +62 points yesterday and closed at 3247. The rate of change is diminishing slightly. A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed The BDI has rallied almost 1100 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose a modest -0.12% yesterday. The dollar closed at $76.33 . The dollar did briefly rise above its 50 day moving average.  The dollar is technically doing what prices do in front of major resistance/support levels – hesitating. The longer it hesitates the better the chances for reversal.

From yesterday – The next important resistance level for the dollar is the falling 50 day moving average (blue line on chart). This is at $76.67 this AM . So dollar is only 0.34% away from major resistance. It’s the line in the sand – Best read of the tea leaves is that it will hold. In fact, Investors411 will add to some positions  as we get close to this resistance level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Our major core positions into weekend. (See Monitor’s post in comments section)

NB  – These core positions have been long term positions for years and are STILL OUTPERFORMING the benchmark S&P 500 – For more see overview section

GLD – Gold rose a significant 2.41% and broke out to a new all time high in huge volume. This was based on the news of India buying a huge hunk of the shinny yellow stuff. (buy the dip)

EWZ – Brazil – has gone up too far too fast and was overdue for a correction. (see past updates)It had about a 10% correction (see chart) and its 50 day moving average is acting as strong support.  Think those of you who bought the dip will be rewarded in the long run.

FXI – China -  too recetly had almost had a 10% correction, another buy the dip opportunity.

Both China and Brazil could go lower if the jobs number is bad or the dollar rises too high. They go down faster than US markets, but rise much faster than US markets. The BDI recent move higher is favorable for both.

Considering diversifying into Indonesia & Vietnam ETF’s Also, for traders as an individual stock AMZN – great technicals& fundamentals, but also a swine flu play. If the flu ends up keeping folks housebound AMZN should profit. (more on Monday) It is currently dipping.

Concerns – 10 even 20% corrections are healthy for FXI and EWZ in the long term. Yes, these and other emmerging markets are recovering fundamentally far faster than the USA. But anything that goes up to too fast forms a bubble and they burst.

SPX – Selling entire position as soonas I get back from art show – taking profits and freeing $ for other investments.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Pakistan

Many of you have raised public and private comments about America’s desire to have a colonial empire. (see comments section of blog) I certainly wish these countries had a functioning democratic system, but it can’t be forced on them and that force has proven counter productive and enormously costly for the USA. (see yesterday’s enlightening Tom Friedman’s editorial) LINK

One of you told me a deeply disturbing story of a Pakistani couple (two doctors) who have their green cards and just returned from visiting relatives in Pakistan. They said the situation there was rapidly deteriorating.  LINK

Pakistan should be our focus not Afghanistan .  As brought up before the fact that we spend 30 times the $ in Afghanistan we do in Pakistan is deeply troubling. If Obama goes ahead with the 3rd surge in Afghanistan that figure could grow to 40 or 50 to 1. We should be giving Pakistan’s fragile democracy more economic aid and listening to the views of their moderates instead of focusing on troop surges in Afghanistan.

Instead America is consumed by war propaganda. Glenn Greenwald writing for Salon makes an excellent point about the Universality of War Propaganda LINK

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Please Note – Long Term Outlook has changed from CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH to NEUTRAL

This is the first change to Long Term Outlook(downgrade) in many moons . This was done primarily on a technical basis. Both the NASDQ and the S&P 500 crashed through their major support levels (the 50 day moving average = blue line on charts at side of blog) We had an another major meltdown in above average increased volume again. This is the 3rd of 4th time within 5 weeks that volume has on a daily basis confirmed (rose significantly and was above average) a major downside price move (greater than 1%)

Longer term – volume has decreased as stocks have risen throughout the summer and fall. This is another technical sign of impending meltdown.

Markets are also not reacting positively to good news AAPL, GOOG,  AMZN , GS & others who beat expectations on TOP and Bottom line have rolled over and are trading down.  Hot stocks loosing ground on good news is the second canary in the coal mine dying.

Markets run on psychology more than anything else – especially in the short term.  Fundamentally , the situation is positive. The US lags most emerging markets, but even here more than a handful of companies now have top line growth.

The Dollar is the catalyst for this turn. Obviously it rose yesterday and this time the impact on stocks greater than the usual (@1% or less) that is approximately what stocks would have fallen with a+0.36% rise in the dollar. (see dollar analysis below)

When the Long Term Outlook is changed we often go back and forth for a while as stocks move above or below key support levels . Expect a rebound this AM.

Best Read of the Tea Leaves – I don’t expect a major roll over -20+%. If/when the dollar starts moving back down stocks should go higher.  However, some sort of correction (a 5 to 10% fall – we are already at 5%) is good for markets.  Anything that goes up too far too fast creates a bubble that bursts.

Also see dollar analysis below.

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 30% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI lost a modest -27 points yesterday and closed at 2986. 2nd day of modest losses. A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed The BDI has rallied almost 900 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool . It would be a wild guess to predict he daily moves of the dollar, but longer term fundamentals are clearly negative – the trend of a falling dollar should continue.

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose for for the 4th straight day +0.36% The dollar closed at $76.48 .  This is above the former support – now resistance level of $76.00 . Technically - Bullish for dollar & Bearish for stocks.

The next important resistance level for the dollar is the falling 50 day moving average (blue line on chart). This is at 76.83 this AM. It’s the line in the sand – Best read of the tea leaves is that it will hold. In fact, Investors411 will add to some positions  as we get close to this resistance level.

We 0.40 away from this resistance level. Mighty close.

Last year’s low was around $71,(March 08 ) so there is a long way to go before the major and very crucial support level is reached . The dollar does have a support level around $74.00( a high from about a year ago – see long term chart)

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Outside the USA in Emerging Markets (especially China, & Brazil) are much better in the long run - Our problem is one of timing. We can’t get a 5 to 10% dip to invest. Looks like we will get at least our 5 to 10% dip now.  Investors 411 should have much larger positions in emerging markets .

Look to add to EWZ (Brazil) and FXI (China) positions because of dip. If prices continue to fall  will nibble some more

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!