Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
May 3, 2011

What now?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

What Now?

Perhaps the most analyzed result of finally killing the world’s #1 terrorist is what should the US foreign policy be? The Huffington Post is featuring a column by Amanda Turkel that starts –

“Okay, can we finally withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan? That’s the question many people are asking in reaction to Osama bin Laden’s death.”

The painful  reality is we have fought two empire building wars that cost American’s dearly

  • Iraq & Afghanistan nation building had nothing to do with catching Osama Bin Laden – he was in Pakistan
  • Only the first Afghan war was justifiable because Bin Laden was there.
  • Cost us $1.3 trillion and lots more when the final numbers are in (well over double)
  • Cost us 10s of thousands in killed and seriously wounded Americans and even more innocent civilians.
  • Our Occupation Was the #1 recruiting tool for NEW terrorists worldwide
  • Cost us many of our civil liberties.
  • Made fear mongering the dominant political force in America.
  • There’s more but time is short.

We’ve seen there are better ways to fight terrorist than pouring $$$$$$$$$$$ into nation building wars

  • Elite US forces stopped a Somali Pirates.
  • Elite US forces killed the leader of al Qaeda in Somalia and fellow terrorists
  • Elite US  killed Osama Bin Laden

Our biggest victories have come at 1/1000 the financial cost. It’s way past time to learn from our mistakes. The arab world desperately wants democracy and freedom, not jihad against Americans. Why give them an excuse to foment jihad by occupying their lands? Yes Obama has show a different way to achieve better results – Change we can believe in.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.02% down
NASDQ -0.33% down
S&P 500 -0.18% down
Russell 2000 -1.22% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Another low volume day – Stocks fell this time.
  • Repeat from last weekWhile individual earnings reports do impact each stock the High Frequency Traders and their super computers sill dominate the market by making up 70+% of all trades.
  • Silver’s parabolic run has finally caught up with it and SLV closed down -8.64%. This is a people forced to cover those huge amount of calls placed SLV. It will probably continue.
  • Stocks opened higher on the bin Laden news, but had no idea of what to do with it, and stocks fell as the dollar rallied.
  • Things that make you go hmm –  The oversold dollar is down 8 of the last 9 days – Why didn’t the bin Laden news strengthen the dollar???
  • Globally, stocks down on interest rate hike fears.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Down, then rallied yesterday and ended up -0.12 yesterday. Another a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell  to+ 27.32 from above +45. Above zero which is bearish, but not overbought = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today - Forget stocks and watch the dollar

  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

Stocks are a bit less overbought with the MO at 27. But still not below 0. Below -60 is where buying becomes desirable.

Some mid term changes to YSL #4 listed below. (have not had a chance to put them in Positions Section yet)

SLV finally burst its bubble. This was mostly due to CME increasing the margin requirements on Silver. Gold moved down in sympathy and perhaps stocks too. Once a panic starts  ( and -9% is a panic) its hard to pick a bottom.

You’d think the oversold dollar would have rallied on bin Laden’s death, but didn’t. Very strange and I’m a a loss to explain this one. But it just may be a sign the dollar is going much lower.

Gold has a mini flash crash on the COMEX exchange. Perhaps a bear run by entities seeking to start panic gold selling

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Paul’s Corner

YSL 4’s performance has been trying at times due to a small market down turn when it was released and due  primarily to market rotation out of the tech stocks and into the commodities.   Most of the stocks in YSL 4  are currently doing well and most of those who corrected are showing some life.

ADTN and JNPR appear to still be correcting,  in fact they are dropping while their respective industry groups are  performing well. Any time a stock performs against it’s group you need the evaluate your position.

Barr and I have discussed over the past few weeks dropping a few of the YSL 4 stocks and adding some new candidates. The following stocks will replace ADTN and JNPR in “Your Stock List”:

LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V., together with its subsidiaries, primarily manufactures and sells chemicals and polymers worldwide.  The company’s Refining and Oxyfuels segment offers refined petroleum products consisting of gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, alkylate, and oxygenated fuels, such as methyl tertiary butyl ether and ethyl tertiary butyl ether. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

John S mentioned LYB a few weeks ago (Thanks John!) and HGSI daily screens have recently picked it up. LYB released it’s earnings yesterday May 2 and handily beat estimates. It  also has a superb “tight” LLUR – Lower Left Upper Right chart pattern.  This is the kind of chart you want in a stock.

RNOW Rightnow Technologies, Inc. Bozeman, Montana,  provides cloud-based customer experience software products and services. The company primarily offers RightNow CX, a customer experience suite for consumer-centric organizations to enable interactions across Web, social, and contact center touch points. Rightnow Technologies, Inc. serves various industries, such as technology, public sector, retail/consumer packaged goods, entertainment, financial services, telecommunication, and travel and hospitality industries

RNOW released earnings last week that beat estimates and had excellent revenue. Some analysts questioned the numbers and the CEO mentioned while revenues were good, earnings were off slightly due to expenses of opening more offices and hiring new employees. So we have a cloud company that specializes in social interaction on the web that is growing. As with any growth tech company it’s more speculation at this point but it’s current growth rate is +24% a year.

LYB reported yesterday so give the chart a few days to settle down, RNOW reported last week and at the time of this writing a buy could be considered.

Since we like to track “Your Stock List” performance, making this current change an accurate analysis can’t be made so I’m proposing we call this modified group YSL 4.5 which we will track from  May 3. We can and will also track YSL 4 for comparison.

Disclaimer: I’m long both stocks and please don’t buy on my comments. YOU are responsible for your children’s inheritance! If either of these two dogs fall off a cliff you are on your own, understand?

Look for Paul R’s enlightened views on stocks ing the comment section of blog

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Positions

See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Disclosure - I have personal  positions in REMX, DGP, UWM, RJA (smaller) and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD.

  • Sold the smaller position in silver for 4% loss yesterday.  But overall huge gains in April for SLV.
  • DDM (double Dow) is doing far better than UWM – Big cap stocks have more exposure to foreign markets and benefit from falling dollar. Moving into this area.
  • DGP – lightening up double long gold ETF, till SLV settles.

SLV went into free fall yesterday. The climax sell off has finally come. An outside fundamental factor was the catalyst that started the free fall. (see above) It does have support levels at 40 and 37.59 It’s 50 day moving average.  Right now a buy is like trying to catch a falling knife.

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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July 26, 2010

Bulls and Bears

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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Bulls & Bears

The case for a rising or falling stock (not economics) market

The Bears

  • At best unemployment in the USA has stabilized around 9.5%. The stimulus that has caused the reversal will soon run out and employment will grow.
  • Housing prices have at best stabilized. 90+% of mortgages are now in some way backed by the US government  (Fannie & Freddie)
  • Not only is the middle class in the USA shrinking, most people are saving more than they used to. Money flows are therefore diminishing.
  • The European bank stress test was at a best a PR exercise. US banks are not loaning like they used to. They’d rather make more profit in other areas and are still in after shock from the original crisis.
  • European Union with the world’s largest GDP, has many shattered economies (PIIGS &  Eastern Europe) and the others are no better off than the USA.
  • The US has an exploding military budget $1,003,000,000,000 ($1.03 trillion) last year. If you count all our military expenditures it is over 60% of the world’s military budget.
  • Iraq ‘s March elections created a stalemate with no government. The two leading candidates lavishing praising Hezbollah’s founding ayatollah and meeting/praising  Sadr (anti American ayatollah in self imposed exile in Iran) to beg he joins their side in new government.
  • AfghanistanWikiLeaks has just released 90,000 documents showing “devastating portrait of the failing war.”
  • China, the leading emerging market has a housing bubble.
  • Stocks are overbought according to the MO (see below)

The Bulls

  • The dollar is falling and close to breaking out of chart pattern to downside. Lower dollar = higher US stocks because US goods will cost less overseas.
  • Oil prices near breakout to new 3 month highs. Higher oil shows greater consumption = bullish, but not if you’re a consumer.
  • Shipping prices have rebounded and are moving higher. See BDI below.
  • According to International Energy Agency China surpassed the USA in energy consumption in 2009.
  • Most US companies that reported better than expected profits cited emerging markets (China specifically) as where they were growing the fastest and creating jobs.
  • China will spend $738 billion over the next decade on clean energy. = growth. The USA can’t get a weak climate or energy bill passed congress.
  • Unless you want to invest in some European bonds (example Greece) there is almost nowhere to go besides stocks to get more than a couple % growth for your $.
  • Black Box/High Frequency Traders dominate the market and they are ONLY concerned about short term results. They can go long or short.
  • Weak banking reform means shadow banks can again get over leveraged.= more profits=higher stock prices till another crash.

I’m sure I missed some. To see the positions Investor’s411 is taking see Positions below and also click on POSITIONS at top of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.99% down
NASDQ +1.05% up
S&P 500 +0.82% down
Russell 2000 +2.39% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra -The Black Box/High Frequency Traders control the vast majority of trades.

The NASDQ volume was slightly above average, but the other major indexes had a typical light volume rally that has become the norm for the Black Box traders that control the markets.

News on the earnings week ahead

Significant Indexes-

  • McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose dramatically to +79.48 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. 79.25 = BEARISH
  • US Dollar –  The dollar  fell  -0.16% yesterday [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] The dollar/stocks relationship is strong – Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The Black Box traders, have used the inverse relationship of the dollar as a key part of their trading system. At bottom of trading range. = Neutral/Bullish
  • BDI The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish. Also, good proxy of China.) BDI was in free fall from a high of @4200 to 1700 . This was a huge -60% drop in 8 weeks is very bearish Often a leading indicator for stocks. Here’s a 3 year chart of BDI for context. The BDI has staged a 6 day +7% rally and is at 1826 = bullish

Reading Tea Leaves-

The McClellan Oscillator at +79.46 shows stocks as being overbought. I’d be just a little more cautious about using short ETF’s too early because of the strong bullsh sentiment right now among Black Box traders. But, its clearly time to think about using those ETF’s that short major indexes. Click on POSITION at top of blog for more info.

The MO has not been above 80 since the big spring rally in April of 2009 – then it reached @ 105. In early Jan. of 2009 it did reach 120.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Updated over weekends Investors411 holds ONE position in SDS at this time

Strategy – From Thursday - The same as before - If/as US major indexes become more overbought the more ETF’s that sort the market will be purchased. Starting out with SH. Then the higher above 60 the MO goes, the more SDS (200% short the S&P 500) and other even 300% short ETF’s will be used the higher the MO goes.  See POSITIONS section at top of blog for more. Therefore what is happening is a series of trades (Short ETF’s) the more overbought the market becomes.

The same entry/exit strategy applies. Considering dropping exit/entry point to 4 instead of 5%. See Friday’s Investors411 for more. The following trades were made Friday.

  • SH (ETF that shorts the S&P 500) was sold for 51.26 – a -2% loss. The other 1/2 of SH was sold earlier for a 3% gain
  • SDS (ETF the shorts the S&P 500 at 200%) was bought at 32.50 Nibbled with just a 2% of portfolio position.

Reasoning - The majority of technical analysts seem to be bullish, the BDI has reversed its 8 week fall & the dollar is right at its major support level.Therefore they may be room for 3 week bull rally may continue. We could reach a high above 100 on the MO. However the MO chart has not gone over +80 (where it is now) since April of 2009. Translation – There is some greater risk in this trade than if we had long term bearish outlook. However the more overbought thing get the safer the trade.

Longer term investors may want to wait to see of the MO goes up another 20 points before nibbling. Please recognize that right now this looks like it may only be  a trade  and NOT a long term investment

EWZ (Brazil) an ETF Investors411 owned for years is again outperforming and is a buy the dip opportunity.

GLD – (Gold) has come down off its high and any further dip Investors411 will buy.

The Long Term Outlook has been changed to NEUTRAL from Cautiously Bearish As explained/predicted Friday, the benchmark S&P 500 broke through the first of 4 different resistance levels. Another 3% move higher and the remaining 3 levels will fall.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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June 29, 2010

Fear & Reality

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Afghan War

Karzai & Petraeus

Fear Is The Mindkiller

911 was a horrible & catastrophic event that needed a response. Since then just how many US citizens in the continental USA have died from a Muslim terrorist attack? There were a handful who died from Anthrax eight years ago, and when the Muslim army guy went berserk at Fort hood a dozen died. Total – maybe 20

So how many die each year in the USA from lightning strikes? – 90 Over the course of the last eight years(90×8) that’s 720 deaths by lightning vs. @ 20 from Islamic related terrorism within the USA.

You are 97% more likely over the last eight year to die from a lightning strike that a terrorist related event within the USA in the last 8 years. Yet we spend trillions on terrorism (consider all the TV shows, editorialists, fearmongering, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, wounded care, etc etc etc. and nothing on lightning strikes.

Hell I’m far more scared of dying in a traffic accident, cancer, diabeties, a robbery or a lightning strike than I am of a Islamic terrorist incident.  So why spend trillions fighting on the other side of the world instead of spending that money on something useful like cancer research or deficit reduction?

Democrats in congress are blocking $3.9 billion in nation building aid to the corrupt Afghan government. Bravo!

Unfortunately apathetic and fearmongered Americans will do little to support those Democrats standing up to the US war machine and the Obama/Petraeus 3rd surge nation building plan. Nita Lowey is the chair of the budget committee that holding up this money. Give her a call and say Bravo.

Fear is the Mindkiller, and we live in world where we are manipulated into believing and spending $ as if your chances of dying from an Islamic terrorist are greater than those of dying from cancer or diabeties. Wake up to reality

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.o5% down
NASDQ -0.13% down
S&P 500 -0.20% down
Russell 2000 -0.55% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Mantra for week” Any analysis of stocks has become an analysis of what the ”Black Boxes” of  huge institutions with their high frequency trades & computer algorithms are doing.” They make up 80% of trading and right now the huge currency markets are dictating their moves.

The Dollar War

Both side backed off in the dollar war yesterday. The green army (long stocks & short the dollar) ran out of gas after Friday’s gains. The dollar went up so stocks went down. So the red army (short stocks & long the dollar) gained a little ground and time to regroup.

The war, fought by the black boxes and currency traders is over the rising 50 day moving average/support level of the dollar.

The MO is NEUTRAL. No advantage for either side. (see below)

The dollar’s gain +0.54% (see below) is a very minor comeback for the red army that got crushed Friday. The red army its held gound and made minor gains. However, a rise of 0.54% should have translated to a larger for stocks = Neutral to Slightly Bearish

The monthly jobs numbers on Friday, and earnings season’s starting (second week in July) should draw some attention away from currency war.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -4.41 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works.= NEUTRAL
  • US Dollar –  The dollar fell s yesterday +0.51% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The dollar has fallen for the last 3 weeks, but has consolidated (traded sideways) over the last 6 days as the 50 day moving average/support level moves higher. This is where the Black Boxes have focused their attention. Dollar at $85.71 directly above major support/ 50 DMA at $85.14. Monday’s rally = Bearish
  • BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish) BDI is in free fall from a high@4200 to  2482 yesterday.(2501 to 2482 yesterday) This is a huge -40% drop in 6 weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Now just above a major support level (@200 points lower)Long term. = Bearish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekends

Have not yet had a chance to Update over last 2 weekend but there arNO positions held at this time.

Still watching DGP (ETF that’s double long gold) for a dip close to its 50 DMA) – Will buy.

Don’t plan any buying or shorting (ETF that short the market) until MO reaches overbought or oversold

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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June 25, 2010

A Very Angry President

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

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“A Very Angry President”

One thing American’s seemed to have made clear – they want an angry man in the White House. Standing up to BP and General McCrystal is the mojo American’s want.

Josh Green from the Atlantic and the Boston Globe, goes into depth on the Obama Presidency. It’s substantive, different and an interesting editorial.

Financial Regulations Finished

Breaking News this AM is congress has finished its work on the FinReg Bill. Here’s the WSJ on the major provisions within the bill. There are lots of knowledgeable people skeptical of this statement but FDIC chair Sheila Bair says, “This will end Too Big to Fail.”

Perhaps the best judgment of how effective this is what happens to the shadow banks stocks – GS, BAC, C, JPM etc. How to judge if Wall Street or Main Street won Will you continue to socialize risk while the shadows privatize the gains? -A major decline in these shadow bank stocks means too big to fail worked.

Afghanistan and Beyond

Both Mama Jama and Jim J came up with some very interesting points on Afghanistan/Iraq//Middle East yesterday.

  • The Israeli’s have tried all sorts of different means over the last 5 decades to change the Mid East. They failed – why should the US succeed?
  • If some sort of democracy establishes itself in Iraq, to will be confrontational to the USA like Turkey’s democracy now is to Israel
  • If Egypt were to change to a democracy tomorrow, that democracy would be far more hostile to both Israel & the USA.
  • Would add that the only “seemingly” pro western Muslim governments like Dubai & Kuwait are dictatorships.

Why keep pouring $ down a sink hole that grows our deficit and divides our nation.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.41% up
NASDQ -1.63% up
S&P 500 -1.68% up
Russell 2000 -1.72% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Repeat - ” Any analysis of stocks has become an analysis of what the “Black Boxes” of  huge institutions with their high frequency trades & computer algorithms are doing.” They comprise 80% of trading and right now the huge currency markets are dictating their moves.

The upcoming battle - Check out the chart of the dollar below. The dollar has stated to move sideways after a three week fall. The major support level/50 day moving average is rising @$0.15 each day and now within $0.80 of the dollar.  The fact that the dollar has stopped falling in front of strong (rising) support level has spooked currency traders. The 6 day consolidation of the $USD means its lost some downward momentum that was lifting stocks.

The falling dollar rising stock army (green) has charged the enemy (the 3 week drop which rallied stocks) Technically, the rising dollar falling stock army (red) has built its technical defense on the 50 Day Moving Average. The green army, having seen the strength of red army forces is now moving sideways hoping to find some hole in the red army lines.

Perhaps some kind of fundamental news (like the European economy is better than thought)to shift the balance and the green army will then find a hole and break through the red army’s barricade/50DMA support level. However right now the sideways movement (consolidation) shows a weakness in the green army

The red army’s 50 DMA is steadily advancing. Yesterday whole bunch of the green army cut and ran and stocks declined in moderate volume. The bottom line for stocksBEARISH

One hope for the green army is that the conditions become so oversold in stocks that they can mount another charge. We’ve gone from +80 on the MO to @-30. (see below)

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell significantly to -28.91 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO worksNEUTRAL
  • US Dollar –  The dollar fell slightly yesterday -0.04% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The dollar has fallen for the last 3 weeks, but has consolidated (traded sideways) over the last 6 days as the 50 day moving average/support level moves higher. This is where the Black Boxes have focused their attention. Bearish
  • BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped. BDI is in free fall from @4200 to  2502 yesterday. This is a huge -40% drop in 5+ weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Now at/just above a major support level. Rate of fall declined again yesterday. This index often makes slow changes, so diminished decline  could be the start of a reversal. However, clearly long term  = Bearish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekends

Have not yet had a chance to Update over last weekend but there are NO positions held at this time.

Dust off  YOUR stock List and ETF’s. Check out Paul R and others worthy suggestions in the comments section throughout the day. Which stocks/sectors have been holding up the best?

The MO has gone from @+80 to -30 and sure looks like momentum will carry us to to -60 and beyond. When US equities get oversold (-60 on the MO) the odds of at least a short term rally, especially in sectors or stocks that are outperforming, are in your favor.

Still watching DGP (ETF that’s double long gold) for a dip close to its 50 DMA) – Will buy.

We are on the cusp of change again for stock’s long term outlook. Technical aspects for stocks are bearish and it looks like the currency market is turning bearish for stocks. (see above) The fundamentals or the outlook of companies in earnings season (two weeks away) will ultimately determine the direction. Even the Black Boxes will notice. But, for now downgrading to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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June 24, 2010

Iraq/Afghan Quicksand

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

President Obama and Gen. David Petraeus walk out of the Oval Office. Petraeus will replace Gen. Stanley McChrystal as top U.S. commander in Afghanistan.

The Dynamic Duo – Petraeus & Bush or is that Obama?

The Afghanistan Quicksand

Please tell Tea Party Patriots the three single largest reasons the deficit has grown over the last decade are

  • The 2008 meltdown and consequential bailout/stimulus.
  • The Bush tax cuts
  • The Iraq/Afghanistan war spending and consequences.

General McChrystal yesterday became the fall guy for the failed surge stratagey in Afghanistan. In effect his insubordination was like taking a hit for the military industrial complex. The new chief in Afghanistan is General Petraeus. Petraeus/Bush planned the first troop surge in Afghanistan. Petraeus/Obama surges two and three.  All have failed But American media is dares not state this reality.

Remember when American media was falling all over itself because American caualties were down due to a surge in Iraq? Now that casualties are up with the 3rd Afghan surge you hear almost nothing. Interesting!?

OK Obama looks tougher because McChrystal got canned. Big deal. Has this changed anything? Pehaps - Petraeus and Obama get to dump blame for their failed Afghan policy on McChrystal. The military Industrial complex grows stronger as does the call for more violence (deficit spending) as the solution.

Informed Comment blog by Professor Cole paint a picture of today’s Iraq (where less American’s are dying) as a failed state with @ 4 million refugee’s, a hung government,(elections were last winter) and an ongoing Shia/Sunni civil war killing at least 300 people per month.

Your deficit dollars continued to be poured into both sink holes.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.05% up
NASDQ -0.33% flat
S&P 500 -0.36% up
Russell 2000 -1.66% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Repeat – ” Any analysis of stocks has become an analysis of what the “Black Boxes” of  huge institutions with their high frequency trades & computer algorithms are doing.”

The new homes data for last month was much worse than expected. Worst fall in 4 decades - 33% Everyone expected bad numbers because stimulus was withdrawn, but the news drove the Dow over 100 points near the open. The fact that stocks recovered to slight losses in , of course light volume, is Bullish

Technically the fact that stocks held onto Tuesday’s more significant losses is Bearish

The Fed announcement was nothing new – Interest rates are going to stay between o & o.25% for a long time & Europe has hurt things here.

The dollar started out the day higher and fell. This is what the Black Boxes saw and the reason stocks moved higher throughout the day. Right now, the Black Boxes have focued with lazar like intensity on currency fluctuations.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell a smidge to -2.25 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works.NEUTRAL
  • US Dollar –  The dollar fell yesterday -0.30% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The one day the trend = Bullish
  • BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped. BDI is in free fall from @4200 to  2515 yesterday. This is a huge -39% drop in 5+ weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Now at/just above a major support level. Rate of fall declined again yesterday. This index often makes slow changes, so diminished decline (@40% less) could be the start of a reversal. However, clearly long term  = Bearish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekend

Have not yet had a chance to Update over last weekend but there are NO positions held at this time

From Yesterday – “DGP is ETF that is double long gold. Investors411 plans to buy the dip in this ETF.”

Big Black Storm Clouds - Every major stock indexes 50 day moving average is heading lower. Right now it would take a pretty massive rally to change that direction. Every “Old School” technical interpretation of this is  Bearish.

However, Currency markets are the dog that’s wagging the stock market tail. If the dollar falls stocks will rise. Black Box traders control what’s happening not “old school” analysis, so for now the long term outlook for US stocks is still NEUTRAL

CAUTIONAt some point the Black Boxes are going to stop looking at the economic relativity between Europe and the USA. Unfortunately, when this happens the realization they come to may be the USA is growing weaker too, just not as fast as Europe.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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June 15, 2010

A Hopefull Dawn?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Newton City Hall at Dawn

Dawn over Newton MA

Obama’s Prime Time on BP

Preview here. Major American oil companies & BP will be in front of congress today. The Bottom Line for me is – the transformation to alternative fuels. This is the golden opportunity to make a giant leap forward to alternative energy solutions.

Chaos and lies has surrounded BP (the free market’s) response to this oil spill. Government from the past and present administration has bought BP line for way too long and was caught with its pants down by its ankles. The right wing’s solution is to scream & their drill baby drill mantra.

Perhaps today in front of congress and with Obama there will be the DAWN of some different solutions.

Wonder if oil executives will make the same mistake and arrive in big private jets like the car executives did? Will they get called on it?

Dawn of Financial Reform

The NYT Business section lead story the Volker Reform section of financial reform looks like it will pass!

Bankers have all but given up on defeating …would effectively bar federally insured banks from trading for their own accounts”

What this means is that YOUR FDIC insured deposits would NOT be used socialize the risk of banks trading opaque, over leveraged derivatives. Gee instead they might even loan that money to buisnesses and home buyers.

Current war – Blanche Lincoln’s Derivatives reform. See above link. Better email your congressperson or Senator and tell him/her you support Linclon’s bill.

Why Afghanistan?

The Pentagon, yesterday released the reason we  and should continue in Afghanistan, They have perhaps a trillion dollars of minerals. The Iraq war was fought over oil and now the loosing effort in Afghanistan needed an excuse to continue. China could get those minerals instead of us. What happened to terrorism and why is it the war machine – the Pentagon –  doing a report on minerals now?

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.20% flat
NASDQ -0.02% up
S&P 500 -0.18% up
Russell 2000 +0.50% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The benchmark S&P 500 fought its to its 200 day moving average/resistance level. Got their in the morning and spent the rest of the day in retreat. = Bearish

One significant data point that investors/traders should remember – Currency markets>Bond Markets>Stock markets. Translation = Because currencies and bonds are so much larger than stock markets they are the DOG that influences how the TAIL (stocks) wags.

With the NYSE up +75 points at it high yesterday – Interday the MO easily reached the +60 or overbought territory. This over bought position added strength to the resistance level and hurt the bulls yesterday. = Bearish

Looks like we may see some teeth in financial reform. Long term Bullish but short term = Bearish

An investment agency downgraded Greek debt in the PM yesterday, but the Euro held onto a significant move higher. In past, this would have sent the Euro tumbling. Sometimes there is a delayed reaction, but for now & for stocks = BULLISH

The Baltic Dry Index BDI has dropped well over 20% of its value in the last month+. Since the BDI measures shipping rates this fall is NOT good for world trade, economics. For stocks = Bearish

Futures up this AM = Bullish

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose to +50.26 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. Considering the volatility of the MO this is about as close as you can come without being overbought. = moderately bearish
  • US Dollar –  The dollar fell a significant -0.77% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. The dollar was @ -1.4% lower in the AM and rose throughout the afternoon.

Reading the Tea Leaves -

A lot of reasons to be bearish this AM. But almost all of Wall Street’s eyes are focused on what’s happening to the EURO. FXE is the ETF that tracks the Euro and it was up +1.09% yesterday despite a downgrade of European debt. There’s a lot of reasons – see red bearish signals above, but if the EURO is going to continue to go up so will stocks.

FXE is the ETF to watch along with Spain’s (EWP underperformed yesterday)

Another charge at the resistance levels for stocks seems likely. Remember, each failed charge weakens the attacking force.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekend.

With the DOW up 113 points at it high yesterday – Interday the MO probably reached the 60 or overbought territory. This over bought position probably hurt the bulls yesterday. = Bearish

Traders - YOUR stock List from 2/6 & from 9/6 a list of stocks that were outperforming and “worth a trade.”

  • VCI – broke out to new high
  • SNDK – broke out to new high
  • SAM – broke out to new high
  • BIDU – @4-6% rally
  • ESRX (not on list but position Investors411 held) – broke out to new high

No one ever went broke taking profits. My best read of the tea leaves is to sell 1/2 into today’s rally (let the rest ride and hope it turns into long term gains)

Of course the ultra long ETF’s often mentioned (UWM, THY) have have done as well in the mini rally of the last three trading sessions.

Dumping 1/2 of UUP for small loss.

The bottom line is will the EURO continue to improve?

From Yesterday – Change in outlook – This is tentative . Upgrading to NEUTRAL. Technically, this looks justified, but frankly, fundamentally I sure don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel.” – It was premature. Major indexes bounced off their 200 day moving averages and retreated in heavier volume. Not the technical breakout we were hoping for. Let’s wait till the resistance level actually falls to change the outlook. Maybe today Therefore, a return to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 12, 2010

The Empire Forever

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Gullivers-travels

The Empire Forever-Photo from Atlantic

Israel’s Knife in Biden’s Back

VP Joe Biden, who many consider the greatest friend of Israel ever had  in the US Senate, has spent about a week in Israel.  He opened with gushing words of support for Israel. The next day Israel announced 1600 new homes in what Palestinians believe is their land. The far right Israeli government put a knife in the American backed peace process and basically said F— Y– to Obama. Laura Rosen from Politico on reaction

Janet Yellin for Fed Vice Chair

The Fed has an enormous influence over YOUR life. Janet Yellin has been leaked as Obama’s choice.  Almost all extremely well qualified choices like Yelin are quickly approved. But times have changed and politics rule. Experience, Intellectual rigor, have become secondary to political views.

Insults in Afghanistan

Iran’s Ahmadinejad (Add 911 was a CIA conspiracy, plus the old holocaust didn’t happen to his list of pronouncements) and Sec. of Defense Gates traded insults while both were in Afghanistan. Both visited so called “President” Karzai. Story link from foreign press.

A BRIC Wall

BRIC = the emerging market giants Brazil, Russia, India and China who many seem to think are taking an opposing view to US policy – On the front burner, see National Interest piece, on blockingsanctions for Iran

Public Option’s Last Try

Bernie Sanders will introduce the public option sooner rather than later

Empire Forever

Robert Kaplan has an outstanding piece in the Atlantic on Afghanistan & the American Empire.


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.42% down
NASDQ +0.40% down
S&P 500 +0.40% down
Russell 2000 +0.34% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Almost the exact same as yesterday-” Another melt up day in decreased volume.” This is now a mantra. Volume is NOT confirming the move higher.

Again same as yesterday – “As suggested yesterday the XLF (ETF for financial stocks) was one of several possible catalysts for continuing the rally. As the chart shows, its broken out to new highs over the last two days in increased volume. Basically, any meaningful attempt to shadow institutions and bring transparency to related markets is getting crushed. Therefore, it sure looks like the shadow financials  will add fuel to the stock rally.” This move higher is being led by Citigroup which move up &% yesterday and traded an overwhelming billion+ shares again.  This stock, like IMAX,  is going elliptical and expect it to run out of juice today.

The benchmark S&P 500 closed directly on its 18 month high. Obviously, momentum is with the bulls.

3 positions are open on the Fed and Janet Yellen has been leaked as the choice.

Retail numbers [just came in much better than expected = rally ho] and consumer confidence this AMBoth significant fundamentals that can move the market.

As long as mild melt ups continue outlook remains bullish.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell a bit to +60.06 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. Last week the NYMO reached a high of 75.33. It looks like we could get above that. So there is room for a short term trade, but longer term overbought = sell
  • BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks. After flattening for a few days it is once again moving higher = Bulls rule

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From Yesterday “ IMAX – has exploded higher in HUGE volume.  It has “gaped” higher three days in a row.  In short, its going elliptical. That means expect a pull back. IMAX also reports earnings today.” IMAX “gapped” higher at the open again and was up over 7% and ended the day down 1.00% in HUGE  volume.  Best read of tea leaves is IMAX will take another day or two to settle then consolidate of move up. 

Mistake was to not sell some IMAX when stock “gapped” higher.(Up 7%)

From yesterday Shorter term traders – Even though we are overbought, it sure looks like the McClellan will reach above 80 sooner rather than later. You might want to go long with TYH(3X technology) or FAS (3X what financials do) Buy a dip and keep tight stops.” Bought a 10% (Of portfolio) position in TYH at 151.50. Put stop at that 151.5 and may sell 1/2 for 3 to 5% gain hopefully today. TYH closed at 154.99

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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February 24, 2010

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Bubble’s Bursting

YOU feel like you’re standing in a room and looking around with everyone else to see if anyone else notices there’s a massive time bomb about to go off and no one is doing anything about it. You watch politician’s babble about cutting waste, foreign aid or welfare recipients and realize that’s what’s been done for 20 years and there’s less than 2 or 3% of this budget left to cut. Here’s the naked reality

  • Medicare & Medicaid are going to explode in cost as baby boomers reach retirement
  • Social Security payments are going to explode too. Each of these entitlements alone dwarfs political babble about cutting waste etc.
  • Military/weapons spending exploding higher and now is the #1 government spending category
  • Tax cut advocates are screaming for more and crashing planes into buildings
  • Our shadow financial system has drained trillions in further resources and remains in the shadows.
  • Health care cost are exploding out of control
  • Massive private debt (credit card,housing,job loss etc) is driving many Americans into despair.
  • Massive debt crisis in US  trade
  • Housing bubble has burst

When you consider all this it seems like a miracle that Obama has kept the American economy & the stock market afloat.  Politicians on every side think more their own power instead of getting something done.  You get so sick & tired of listing to politicians blaming others and calling for “a dose of reality” instead of sitting down together and getting something done. Meanwhile – Tick Tock, Tick Tock, Tick Tock – BOOM.

Investing Bottom Line – These financial liabilities and our inability to solve them are why it is  no longer safe to buy and hold US equities.  The potential of financial bubbles growing and bursting are just too great. Our government just too polarized. It’s hard to see a decade without continued financial meltdowns.

Death Toll = 1000 in Afghanistan

Obama has joined Cheney/Bush and continues to try to nation build in Afghanistan. US on Feb 19th reached 1000 casualties.  Obviously, the surge of American troop here has a lot to do with upcoming wars in Iran (Afghan. & Iraq surround Iran) and Pakistan (Afgan also boarders Pakistan).  We’ve seen our military budget double over the last decade and its continuing to grow perhaps faster than Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.97% up
NASDQ -1.28% up
S&P 500 -1.21% up
Russell 2000- +1.14% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

US Consumer Confidence plunged yesterday. The monthly index had just hit a 16 month high and it plunged yesterday. Simply put Consumers are worried about the economy. They make up @ 70% of GDP.  After a solid 3 month rise the unexpected fall from 56 to 46 could means the consumers fell like they took it on the chin last month. This is bad news for the US economy, but many US stocks are rebounding because of Asian and Emerging market growth.

There is obviously a disconnect between US stocks and the US economy US Stocks can rise without the US economy because many of them rely on profits from abroad.  But, Europe is in trouble and emerging markets alone are not big enough to carry the res of the world.

Markets fell as volume rose. Volume was slightly above average. Would have expected more volume. Surprised that US markets did not fall further.  Another indication that many long term investors are simply not interested in stocks = Bearish signal

Two Major events today. Toyota’s embattled CEO & Bernanke in front of congress

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Index fell to +18.33. + or – 60 is our overbought/sell or oversold/buy levels.  +18.33 is approaching neutral or 0

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) – These are positions I actually own

Sold another 1/3 0f TYH at 131.35 for a +6% gain. I’ve also set what’s called a stop/sell orders  on

  • recently bought (added to) EWZ at @ 2% above what it was bought for
  • 1/2 of MOO, a longer term position.
  • The remained of THY

This is just protecting gains before they turn into losses

McClellan Oscillator is not close to buy or sell position.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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January 12, 2010

Radicals? or are they Right?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

John Pilger as he appears in the New Statesman

John Pilger, photo from his website

Radicals? Or Are They Right?

Yesterday several of you made comments and suggested listening to views that mainstream US media ignores or would call Left wing radicalism.  Are they Right?

  • Jeremy Scahill – (from Sherwehe ) – An Independent journalist – We really have 189,000 troops & mercenaries on the ground in Afghanistan now. “Obama administration blows the Bush administration out of the privatized water.” LINK
  • Matt Taibbi(from M ) – Rolling Stone reporter on The Great American Bubble Machine How unregulated free markets have caused financial disaster. (yep we’ve referenced him before) LINK
  • John Pilger - (from Bob Sadinsky ) Australian who twice won British journalist of the year award. “What Matters Above All is The Class One Serves” Obama says one thing and does another.  One powerful video LINK & “Obama’s most audacious lie is that Afghanistan today is a “safe haven” for al-Qaeda’s attacks on the West. LINK

I know that there are many of you who read this blog and are more conservative or major Obama supporters – You often email me. If you remain silent one can only assume that YOU think Scahill, Taibbi, and Pilger are right. These three authors have pretty much shredded Obama’s foreign and financial policies , and even called him a “liar” and “hypnotist.” Are they right?

Did the US military launch a quit coup in the USA and is Obama part of it?

Note if you have technical trouble in publishing a response on the blog send it to me and I’ll publish it.

Jeremy Scahillmatt taibbi

Jeremy & Matt

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.43% flat
NASDQ -0.21% down
S&P500 +0.32% down
Russell2000- -0.09% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Again a late rally lifted stocks.

  • McClellan Index at +31.70 = A bit overbought.   There is still some wiggle room for US stocks to move even higher before they reach @+60 or overbought territory -  There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or oversold.

The McClellan Oscillator is showing less room for upside gain.   However, technically this chart shows a series of 4 higher highs and a solid base at zero – It’s bounced 3 times off this number and is now a short term buying point.

Earnings season has begun – Alcoa’s report disappoints  and Chevron warned. Not good fundamental news to start the day

The long term bull is trend is firmly in place, but we are too close to overbought territory. Bigger risk to the downside in the short term. Look for US markets to get spanked today

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Bought a 1% of portfolio position in IMAX – at 13.9

YOUR Watch List of Stocks . Unfortunately, I’m not daily checking these stocks out. Ideally, you’d like to McClellan index below zero (the further the better) and these all would be better buys. We developed these potential stocks about two weeks ago. Check old Investors411 for more.

  • IMAX
  • SEED Broke out to new high yesterday Missed buying opportunity as the stock formed a short term base – Mistake Would buy a dip
  • AAPL forming a base near top. If markets move higher so should AAPL
  • AMZN a buy the dip opportunity. Again will move with market.
  • HMIN Recently broke out to a new high Possible buy the dip.
  • CAAS Exploded to new high last week in huge volume. Too over extended to buy
  • PCLN Possible buy the dip opportunity
  • F Huge rally. Way too over extended to buy
  • DRWI

SEED, HMIN, PCLN, & AAPL seem like best choices – But would like overall markets to be more over sold before buying. SEED is the stock that seems to have the best possibility this second. I’m not as comfortable with individual stocks as ETF’s.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 1, 2009

Market Update – Dr Strangelove

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

A Financial Dr Strangelove

Summers

Larry Summers , Obama’s chief economic adviser, is the financial Dr Strangelove of this administration. Ever since his nomination was first suggested, Investors411 has strongly objected to his controlling influence in our economic policy. Summers was the protogee of Goldman Sachs CEO Robert Rubin. He took over as Sec. of Treasury under Clinton and approved laws that gutted consumer/taxpayer financial protection.

Summers, has time after time backed the unregulated capitalism, that even Alan Greenspan has admitted was a mistake.  The latest expose comes from the $1.8 billion that vanished from when he was President of Harvard University. Boston Globe LINK

Summers has over ruled the voices of reform within the Obama administration.

Trickle Down Economics

Summers and the Obama administration are running the same kind of trickle down economics that widened the gulf between the rich and poor under Ronald Reagan . They’ve continued Paulson’s (Bush’s Sec. of Treasury) socializing the risk for the wealthy and making the middle class taxpayers pay.

Wall Streets wealth (rise in stock prices & shadow bank bonuses) is being led by rebounding emerging markets and American companies investing their money and jobs abroad.  The reason the Russell 2000 (smaller companies) lag the other major US indexes is they do less business abroad. Big Shadow banks (up collectively well over 100%) are getting bailed out with trillions of dollars (both printed money and your tax $) Main Street gets chumb change.

Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman editorial in NYT states on jobs”There’s a pervasive sense in Washington that nothing more can or should be done, that we should just wait for the economic recovery to trickle down to workers. This is wrong and unacceptable. LINK

He offers the following jobs solution LINK

The Bigots Demonstrate at Our School

Bigots from the Fred Phelps Westboro Baptist Church clan with their “Fag’s Die God Laughs” credo are coming today to my local Brookline, MA. High School to demonstrate. So both my wife & I have sent $ to an opposing organization supporting gay rights.  A first time for both of us. LINK here

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.34% up
NASDQ +0.29% up
S&P500 +0.77% up
Russell2000 +044% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

For the moment the Dubai economic meltdown has stabilized because oil rich Abu Dhabi has promised to bail out the over leverage Mid east playground for the ultra wealthy. Volume, was, of course up over the 1/2 day trading Friday, but still below average. 3 of the 4 major indexes (not small caps – Russell 2000 – This index makes most of its profits from within the USA) have all achieved higher highs - Bullish Hopefully they are now in proves of achieving higher lows.

Repeating mantra = The dollar rules – The trend here is a moderate or slow decline of the dollar.  What would reverse this is an event like an attack on Iran – stocks would fall & the dollar would rise.  Perhaps, technically, there could be a short term rise in the dollar.

Obama’s Afghan speech tonight – Escalation in war, to a rational person, would ususally mean an immediate drop in stocks.  But, these are NOT rational times.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI fell -87 points yesterday and closed at 3887. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1700 points since late September. After 16 up days in a row, now, 8 down days in a row & down through the former resistance/now support level 0f 4291 .

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets. Recent price drop-Nothing to panic about yet

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar fell an insignificant -0.17% yesterday . The dollar closed at $74.80

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at -17.07 This is a slightly Oversold Position . This chart is showing we seemed to haveave reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month,. Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)

From Friday – Probably going to take some profits today (sell 1/3+ positions) in FXI, EWZ, GLD & all of DGP. Hopefully, will get a chance to buy back into these positions when the McClellan Index gets oversold. Personally I did sell/take profits on 1/3 of FXI & all of DGP . No one ever went broke taking profits – but right now this move looks like a mistake.

List of positions & percent of portfolio (see positions section for more)

16% FXI

16% EWZ

11% GLD

10% MOO (agriculture ETF – more later on this)

5% AMZN (stock)

5% NVS (stock)

5% BRSIX – not listed in Investors411. A small cap mutual fund that I’ve owned for almost a decade ( I liked the company because they gave a lot of profits back to charity)

10% -  3 Bonds – not listed in Investors411 that I’ve owned for years.

sometimes @15% in day & swing trading I do not discuss in Investors411 & the rest in cash.

Best recommendationIt’s time to buy some protection. Iran, lost a 25 to 3 vote in the UN regarding their desire to achieve nuclear weapons or nuclear power (if you trust Ahmadinejad believe the later) The chances Israel or the USA will attack is growing. Obama committing more troops to Afghanistan further surrounds Iran. The price of oil will skyrocket if their is an attack. Yesterday Iran’s navy picked up some Britsh racing ship.

Some other terrorist event may occur reguarding oil.

So, on dips, buy the commodity oil. I have to check this out further, but the appropriate commodity (not company based) ETF’s seem to be USO & OLO (OLO does 2x what oil does) The later is very thinly traded. Going to work up to 10% of portfolio.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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