Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
January 31, 2012

We bring Bad Things to Life

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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We Bring BAD

Things to Life

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General Electric

World’s 17th Largest Company


All we want is a level playing field


Trillions of dollars are flowing into an oligarchy of  giant corporate  and wealthy individuals. One group that is  being decimated by this oligarchy is American small businesses.

Mom and Pop want to start a small business in America. They hang up a sign that says OPEN for business.

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Small business are American job creators. In a large part because they have not yet reached the size where it is profitable to outsource major components of their business.

Example: Apple Computer has 43,000 US employees and creates 700,000 jobs in Asia.

The problem is they can’t compete against the giant corporations and their Army of Lobbyists and Lawyers

The corporate oligarchy has one huge advantage

TAXES

Most American businesses are taxed at 35%. That is unless your special like Romney’s Bain Capital and other venture capital firms and hedge funds. Their taxed at 15%

The real problem is giant corporations own the politicians in Washington

What does GE pay in Taxes?


  • GE Had $14.2 Billion in profits ($5.1 billion in the USA) in 2010
  • GE got $10 billion+ in Bailout money because GE Financial was way over leveraged.
  • GE has a huge tax division that is run by & employs ex Treasury and IRS officials.
  • GE was just fined $63 million for IRS violations.

Tax rate – Do they pay

35% – WRONG

15% -WRONG

5%- WRONG

0% –  WRONG

GE in 2010 had a tax benefit of $3.200,000,000

63% Tax Credit RIGHT ANSWER

of what they profited from in the USA

Not only is this an unfair competitive advantage, buy you the tax payer are missing out on billions in potential tax revenue.

In fact YOU (the government) owe GE $3,200,000,000

as write offs on future Taxes


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STOCKS

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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October 20, 2011

Getting Fleeced

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Getting Fleeced


Life is Good if you are a Banksta.


Banks are critical to the growth of any economic system.  But if you decimate the regulations and regulators who watch over the financial system then greed runs wild.

Today too big to fail banks with infusions of trillions of dollars from governments/taxpayers continue to threaten worldwide economic systems while still  torturing taxpayers and consumers.

Here’s just the latest -

  • No one goes to jail.  Our understaffed SEC (many scream cut government/cut regulators/cut regulations/cut SEC) who has often been accused of being in bed with bankstas (read Matt Taibbi) just settled with Citibank who was telling clients one thing and defrauding them by doing another.
  • Everyone from US Military Commanders to Apple Computer are held accountable for their actions. Bankstas are special.  They don’t have to mark to market their earnings results.
  • Goldman Sachs earnings (even without mark to market accounting) report is worse than expected and has a revenue LOSS – next day goes up +6%. Apple, who has to use mark to market accounting has a worse than expected earnings report and goes down -6%
  • No one will go to Jail – Price fixing scandal grows as major banks (BAC, C, JPM, DB) are accused of Price Fixing
  • Noted Economist, Prof Mark Hudson explains how European Debt Crisis is “Bankstas waging war against the people of the world”

The 1% at the top benefit enormously from banks. They reap they huge bonuses & salaries, they trade the unregulated Credit Default Swaps, and they run and invest in High Frequency Trades.

Damn it feels good to privatize those gains, socialize the losses and not be held accountable.

What do we sheep do?

(except the Occupy Wall Street protestors)

BAC and other banks save enormously when you use your debit card instead of a check. Now they charge a $5 monthly debt card fee. Again and again and again and again….


We sheep passively get fleeced.


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Stocks

egg splat crack smash broken

Another broken eggs meltdown day. NASDQ and Russell 2000 get clobbered. Dow and S&P spanked. Europe and earnings results to blame. Seeking Alpha’s “must know” stock news for today.

Some Important Points

High Frequency Traders are volumizers. They don’t have a basic fundamental bullish or bearish bias in their algorithms. They pump up the volume and therefore make price moves more distorted.  Technically, many of the algos they use do become more bullish when markets are oversold and bearish when they are overbought.

Fundamentals (example earnings) and Manipulators (example – Central Bank intervention) move markets. Technicals offer guidelines on how those markets will move. (example overbought = bearish, oversold = bullish)

Technical Forecasting Tools

  • Our primary technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell dramatically from 67 to 34.04. Moderately overbought = NEUTRAL/Bearish
  • Our secondary forecasting tool, the Put Call Ratio, fell to 1.12 = NEUTRAL
  • For more on these two indexes click on STRATEGY section on top of page.

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Reading Tea Leaves

  • Our technical bias (MO &PCR), in the short term, is moderately bearish. – Translation – If all the fundamental news was neutral, the market would probably go down

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Paul’s Corner

Wednesday started out on a positive note, then in the afternoon a Fed Beige Book report wasn’t well received and news out of the Euro War Zone turned negative about 2PM and down went the market. Until Greece settles it looks like an unsafe market.

GMCR has sure been getting tossed out like a bad brew these past few days. The trouble started after a David Einhorn presentation. He specializes in short sales.

Read his report.

Even with Wednesday’s soft action on the tech stocks many are starting to show life.  Here are a few to look at:

ATML Atmel Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a range of semiconductor integrated circuit (IC) products. The company’s Microcontrollers segment offers various proprietary and standard microcontrollers, such as embedded nonvolatile memory, integrated analog peripherals, and capacitive touch controllers

BSFT BroadSoft, Inc. provides software that enables fixed-line, mobile, and cable service providers to deliver voice and multimedia services over Internet protocol (IP) based networks.

IACI IAC/InterActiveCorp engages in the Internet business in the United States and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Search, Match, ServiceMagic, and Media and Other. The Search segment develops, markets, and distributes various downloadable toolbars; provide search, reference, and content services through its destination search and other Websites, including Ask.com and Dictionary.com; and aggregates

KLAC KLA-Tencor Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets process control and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nanoelectronics industries

RAX Rackspace Hosting, Inc. operates in the hosting and cloud computing industry. It provides information technology (IT) as a service, managing Web-based IT systems for small and medium-sized businesses, as well as large enterprises worldwide.

RNOW Rightnow Technologies, Inc. provides cloud-based customer experience software products and services.

SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, a fabless semiconductor company, designs, develops, and supplies a portfolio of multimedia data processing, storage, and transfer solutions primarily for consumer electronics applications

SPRD Spreadtrum Communications, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a fabless semiconductor company that designs, develops, and markets baseband processor and RF transceiver solutions for wireless communications and mobile television markets. SPRD is a Chinese company.

Stocks listed are for education only. No buy sell recommendations are made or inferred.


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Investors411 LONG Term Investments

Each day Paul (change setting from profile to activity) offers up to the minute commentary on the markets & YSL #5 in the Comment section of the blog. Catch his Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday.

Our Hedge Investment - Theory – Technology will do better than financial sector over time. Thus hedge is set to hopefully work well in both up and down markets.

  • Short Financials – Investors411 will use ultra short SKF (opened at 78.91 – sold at 71.51).
  • Long Technology - Investors411 will use ultra long QQQ (tech’s) QLD (opened at 81.13 – sold at 87.48)
  • The last half of this trade was sold or less than a -1% loss = Total lost /gained of entire trade = 0%
  • Why it was sold – See editorial above. Financials have a major advantage NOT using mark to market accounting and continued support from central banks. No trend was developing in this trade.

Taking it on the Chin.

After four very successful YOUR Stock List, the 14 stocks in YSL #5 is taking it on the chin.  The reasons

  • Two days ago CROX had a bad earnings report and fell -39%
  • Yesterday GRMC suffered from a poor forecast by a major analyst and fell -13%

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Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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July 22, 2010

Morally Ugly

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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Morally Ugly

The Brietbart/Sherrod controversy is perhaps one of the most morally ugly examples of what passes for news in America. Brietbart. a major right wing news source/blogger produced a snippet of a speech given by a relatively minor black Obama administration official, Sherrod, supposedly proving she was a racist against whites.

The vast echo chamber of FOX news (From Glenn Beck to owner Rupert Murdoch) & right wing media who is desperately truing to prove Obama is a racist splashed the story all over the media.

Shirley Sherrod after getting hammered 24/7 by the right wing & American media, was asked to resign (thrown under the bus) by Obama administration who along with the FOX & company thought this would distract for the big Financial Regulatory Bill signing.

Turn out when the whole speech is played there is no anti white racism and the farmer  Roger Spooner who is the supposed focus of Sherrod’s racism says -

No way in the world. No way. No way. I don’t even want to talk about it. It don’t make sense. She was just so nice to us as – she didn’t – there wasn’t no – there wasn’t no racism attitude at all in it. Heck no. … They don’t know what they’re talking about,”

The Glenn Beck, Rupert Murdoch tie above was intentional. Because it ties big business with those that spew unfounded hatred. They do this kind of fear mongering because it sells and produces results – both politically and monetarily.

When the Republican Congressman jumped up in the Obama State of the union and shouted “YOU LIE” he was overwhelmed with donations. Like the congressman, Brietbart whose actions are morally reprehensible will flourish.

The lemming like American media and this time the White House rushed to echo another right wing smear. When the truth comes out you hear almost nothing from Drudge to FOX on their rush to judgement. There is one word to describe our right wing, fear mongering hate filled media – Disgrace

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.07% up
NASDQ -1.58% up
S&P 500 -1.28% up
Russell 2000 -1.86% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

How markets react to news is the key to forecasting direction. APPL is the “darling of HFT/BlackBox traders.” As Paul R concluded yesterday (see comments section) AAPL was going nowhere despite a great earnings report. Good analysis. This was probably due to the overbought (MO near 50 yesterday) nature of the market.

So along comes Ben Bernanke speaking in front of congress and traders focus on the worst of what he has to say = Bearish

US markets fell in increased average volume = Bearish

Mr Softy MSFT reports after bell today

Under traditional circumstances, you’d figure if the 800 lbs gorilla, AAPL, can’t move markets higher then nothing in future earnings reports this month will push stocks up. But with HFT’s dominating trading anything goes.= ??????

Bottom Line = Investors411 is far more focused on overbought/oversold (MO) levels than daily chatter.

Significant Indexes-

  • McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +25.52 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. = NEUTRAL
  • US Dollar –  The dollar  rose a significant +0.79% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] The dollar is important  to stocks – Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The Black Box traders, have used the inverse relationship of the dollar as a key part of their trading system. Earnings have trumped this indicator for now, but yesterday it looks like this inverse relationship  trumped earnings.  = NEUTRAL
  • BDI The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish. Also good proxy of China.) BDI was in free fall from a high of @4200 to 1700 . This is a huge-60% drop in 8 weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Here’s a 3 year chart of BDI for context.  A small but important four day rally indicates the BDI seems to have found a bottom — a short term bullish sign. BDI now at 1782 Fundamentally the-58% drop is very BEARISH

Reading Tea Leaves-

Bummer, Just when the MO shows US indexes are almost overbought enough to put the odds of going short (using ETF’s that short major US indexes) more in our favor, the MO falls back into Neutral territory.

Several of you have asked about YOUR stock list. – If/when the MO goes negative (below zero) we should start putting it back together. We will use the old list as the foundation. One major difference this time – Let’s look for more liquid stocks, because those are the stocks that get juiced by High Frequency Trades. This also means that the higher beta stocks (more volatile) are apt to do even better.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Updated over weekends Investors411 holds ONE position in SH at this time

As the MO approaches oversold territory will again consider ETF’s that short the market.

StrategyThe same as before - If/as US major indexes become more overbought the more ETF’s that sort the market will be purchased. Starting out with SH. Then the higher above 60 the MO goes, the more SDS (200% short the S&P 500) and other even 300% short ETF’s will be used the higher the MO goes.  See POSITIONS section at top of blog for more.

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