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Arianna

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Arianna Huffington

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Arianna is the most powerful women blogger out there.

This summer her Huffington Post surpassed  the NYT in

number of hits.

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Why?

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There are several reasons, but perhaps paramount is this woman knows what to write about and how to write.

Some gems from her latest on the 2012 Republican election campaign

The Disconnect Rises

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…some might expect that the seemingly endless debates and breathless saturation of media coverage of it all would converge into a real discussion of our major problems…. What we got instead was a deluge of attack ads, largely financed by the super PACs allowed by the Citizens United decision.

Former George Bush aide John Bridgeland, who helped found Opportunity Nation, professed himself “shocked” by America’s standing relative to Europe and Canada. “Republicans will not feel compelled to talk about income inequality,” he said. “But they will feel a need to talk about a lack of mobility – a lack of access to the American Dream.”

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Since Last Friday Investors411 has focused on the negative impact income inequality has on countries.

Those countries with greater income inequality like the USA have far more health and social problems.

To Live the American Dream

You Don’t Have to Move To Denmark

You Can Fight For It Here

The Equality Trust is a group co Founded by Richard Wilkinson whose TED lecture has now been viewed by over 700,000.

YOU Can Make a Difference

Spread the Word

Join the Equality Trust

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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• JPM  the before the bell earnings report Friday will set the tone. Big banks are leaders in the current rally and JPM is perhaps the most solvent of the group.

• Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +56.65 . 50DMA at +0,37 Getting close to overbought territory – about +60. Since early 2008 a reading near +90 has indicated a reversal is coming, (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog)= NEUTRAL/bearish

• Starting to get worried about market being too overbought. One 200+ point Dow move would put us close to +90 or way overbought.

• The benchmark S&P 500 held onto its gains yesterday. We took out the October high – but the move was relatively minor as was the volume increase. A timid breakout.

• The tea leaves seem to say that the rally will fizzle out in the end of January. It will be a higher high and perhaps we can also establish a higher low.

• USA is leading right now, but can be dragged down by Europe, China, Iran, no payroll tax cuts and/or an unforeseen event.

Blame the Victims

Enrich the Perpetrators

Janet Tavakoli has an excellent editorial in the Huffington Post Some quotes -

“Yet, as Arianna Huffington points out in her latest book, banks continue to find ways to get Americans to subsidize problems that the banks themselves were chiefly responsible for creating. Consumers struggle to keep up with payments as the unemployment rate rises along with food and energy prices, and loan resets kick in:

…When they don’t, banks, trying to offset losses in other areas, turn around, hike interest rates, and impose all manner of fees and penalties–all of which makes it less likely consumers will be able to pay off mounting debts.”

The shadow financial institutions have in NO way been held accountable for the trillions in damage they created by America’s political and legal structure. They blame the victims and are still enriching themselves while YOU sufer and will suffer more consequences (example – the inflation that will follow).

The only way to resolve this problem is to “Break the choke hold That special interest money has on our politicians.”

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Bomb found on MLK Parade Route

Just like the Arizona shooting this is plane and simple terrorism fueled by the growing violence of the far right in America.  This time the FBI is calling it “domestic terrorism”

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YOUR Comments

Yankee Bob has another editorial and many of you commented – Too see editorial link here and scroll down

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Note – Overslept this AM & have NOT had time to check lots of sources

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.43%	flat
NASDQ	+0.38%	down
S&P 500	+0.14%	up
Russell 2000	+0.00%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Yesterday tech general AAPL rallied through out the day to close down -2.25%. This is bullish news (see yesterday’s blog & below) Apple had blowout earnings after the bell and looks to be up in Pre market trading.
• The only short term danger here is in major US indexes becoming too oversold. We keep inching higher as the Fed money flows (see past updates on POMO)

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NB - If “Neutral” (or any word) is bolded and ”bullish” is not It gives more weight to the Neutral.

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Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today

AAPL – Tech market leader is somewhat over bought. – From yesterday – Expect a big hit early on the Steve Jobs news. If Apple does not loose 4% today = It’s one strong bull market.”

Bottom Line - Hope lots of you followed  suggestion to BUY AAPL on the dip yesterday (See yesterday’s blog’s Bottom Line section) I’d take profits (now above 5%) or sell 1/2 today and put 5% trailing stop on the rest.

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Positions

• UWM - (2x small cap stocks) UWM still outperforming other US indexes. – Add too on dip. Investors has owned multiple positions in UWM that is up over +20% since originally added on 11/22
• REMX - (rare earth metals) Placed 5% trailing stop on 1/2 the position. Another stop/loss at 7% below purchase price.

Under consideration (Note below section was written Friday)

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Challenged its resistance/break out level but failed. Would buy any pullback close to 12.1

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars. Is back moving in right direction.

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky because its leveraged 3X. Both are lagging US stocksand will be dropped from list for now.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes this is another bubble building. Warning – over extended right now, but doesn’t seem to matter. Buy the dip

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip.  This is a tough buy right now because the down days have big volume and up days small volume.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

The Face of a Terrorist

The Daily Beast/Newsweek is featuring a story on the “rise of right wing extremism could spur violent attacks” warned by Homeland Security in 2009. (story by Aaron Mehta)

Some Facts About the USA

• In 2007 there were 47 active militia groups in USA. In 2009 127 (source Atlantic pg 72 & 73 below)
• In 2007 $288 million in taxes from firearms and ammunition. In 2009 $453 million
• Clay Duke, white male, shoots at Florida School Board members and kills self.
• Michael Enright, white male, kills cabbie who he suspects is a Muslim in NYC.
• Byron Williams white male, shoots at & arrested by police on his way to kill liberal members of liberal foundation
• Joe Stack, white male, drives his private plane into IRS building.

“Now, if the accused [the Arizona assassin/terrorist] had been Muslim, [instead of white males] does anyone doubt whether this mass murder would have been considered an act of terrorism?” asks Bill Quigley

One of the progressives in the comments section of this blog was recently talked out of buying a gun after the Arizona massacre at a Democratic congresswomen’s event Is it only a matter of time before the left stops lighting candles and violently retaliates? What happens after that?

Rage paranoia and division are growing in a country already consumed with violent behavior. Can President Obama and other leaders step up and use this moment to “Overcome Evil with Good?”

“the atmosphere in which this horrible tragedy was born, nurtured, and carried to its wretched fruition is toxic. Of course, there are always going to be unbalanced people, just as there are always going to be viruses in our environment — but what most determines whether those viruses make us sick is the strength of our immune system. When it is stressed and compromised, infections can easily take hold. “

To paraphrase the title of Arianna Huffington’s excellent editorial (her quote above) What will YOU do is the real question.

Will YOUR voice remain quiet?

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.32%	down
NASDQ	+0.17%	down
S&P 500	-0.14%	down
Russell 2000	+0.48%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Markets fell in the AM and then the Fed primed the money supply with a $7.96 billion purchase of bonds.
• Volume figures relative to the past decade at this time are pitifully low.
• Mantra - THIS IS A  STOCK MARKET BEING MANIPULATED HIGHER by the Fed & the US government. Call it bad, good or ugly – just like QE 1, now QE2 (quantitative easing round 2) and low interest rates for shadow financials is perhaps the most significant driving force behind long term rally (more below under Tea Leaves section)
• Therefore, I remain convinced that good economic news for the USA is OK for stocks, but bad news is better because it means more quantitative easing by the Fed.
• Two significant factors weigh in today on markets – Europe All Eyes on PIIGS & Extreme Bullishness a Concern

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The ”schizophrenic.” pattern changed back again yesterday Big dip at open only to see stocks rally higher throughout the day.

Under normal circumstances this market would have crashed and burned, but for 18 months we had the training wheels of stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing.

The Baltic Dry Index is in a meltdown – Simply put the cost to ship goods worldwide is breaking down it costs less to ship each day and is starting to approach levels near the beginning of the recession.

Here’s the anomaly – The prices of the goods they ship are all near record highs – copper, grain, coal etc. Here’s a long list of comparative charts showing a strong correlation between the BDI, stocks and commodities breaking down into a 180 degree reversal.

Line from Hamlet – Somethings Rotten in the State of Denmark - Either some mysterious entity is producing dozens of huge ships each day or perhaps our Fed’s quantitative easing money is also being shipped abroad.  Edit 1/11 2:40 EST – it turns out there is a huge glut of new ships and the sites I used did not have this information. Mea Culpa

What to watch

AAPL - This time Apple had a solid gain as it broke out to another new high (up +1.88%).

UUP –  The dollar went right up its resistance level. It held and the tracking ETF for the dollar ended up falling.

Working on 2011 Investment guide - Short term more bearish, but bullish in long term for the year.

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Positions

• UWM – UWM still outperforming other US indexes

Under consideration

UCO -(2x oil prices) Very erratic, waiting till correction settles.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) -   Will buy back hopefully on slight dip.  Blew chance to buy dip yesterday – was not near computer when it happened. Only ETF under immediate consideration at this time.

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky because its leveraged 3X. Waiting for larger pull back on both.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. -  Massachusetts Supreme court has ruled against shadow banks foreclosing because of the difficulty in knowing who owns the hidden derivatives on the mortgage. Obviously in the end (We Have the Most Pro Business Supreme Court Ever – Headline this month’s Forbes magazine) the shadows will probably win. But other state supreme courts will probably be unanimously against this too. – We’ve had a dip on this news and might be done. Those with no ethic problems could consider a buy.

DGP – Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip. Consolidating at support level. A possible buy. What probably happens is a bear raid breaking support. Then once the weak holders are whipped out gold will rally. Here’s a hidden gem of news – India has told Iran it would buy oil in gold. Those that can tolerate the risk – now’s the time to buy.

YOUR Stock List – Paul tells me YSL#3 was back outperforming the S&P benchmark. Add to that Yesterday was an outstanding day for YSL#3

If you check out the comments section of the blog you’ll notice Paul made a call on Solar Stocks a while back. This sector is white hot right now. Moral of the story is if you are a trader, keep an eye on the comments section of the blog for ideas.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Crossroads – Nation Building

Violence in Pakistan

The Huffington Post has become a major focal point in opposition to expanding in Afghanistan.  Site founder Arianna Huffington has an excellent article “Why Joe Biden Should Resign. ” LINK Biden has opposed the Afghan buildup in favor of a focus on Pakistan. Three of you have chimed in on the blog and agree that since Pakistan has Nuclear weapons, many more al Qaeda and affiliates it makes sense not to focus resources (financially 30 to 1 ) on Pakistan instead focus on Afghanistan. 41 were killed yesterday in a coordinated attack on Pakistan Police stations. LINK

Looks like we are going to have a do over election in Afghanistan LINK and then send in more troops for another long costly war.  After that Pakistan, perhaps Yemen, the Sudan, Iran, then back to Iraq.  The LOOOOOOONG war in Afghanistan means nation building in a country whose #1 export is opium not oil.  How are we ever going to get out of debt while spending trillions nation building?

Seems like Obama without Biden is going down the same path as Cheney/Bush .  From an editor in London, Simon Tisdall – “With friends like the US, Pakistan doesn’t need enemies.” LINK Another from Paris by William Pfaff LINK Another from Paris by William Pfaff LINK

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	+0.47%	down
NASDQ	+0,05%	down
S&P500	+0.43%	down
Russell2000	-0,10%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Last hour rally lifts stocks. Always bullish to close at highs of day. Volume falls. We held onto Dow 10,000 and that’s psychologically bullish. Holding Dow 10,000 into weekend important

Google hit and IBM missed earnings reports. Last night GOOG was up 3% and IBM down 3% in after hours trading. GE and BAC missed this AM.

Good news is NOT having the positive impact it had last quarter. How markets react to news is our #2 confirmation factor. It has turned BEARISH

Warning – Financial sector seems ready for at least a light correction. 1120 on the S&P in technical terms a 50% retracement number. If you don;t know what this means – just think the S&P is at 1097 and there is a big boulder in the road ahead to 1200.

Famed investor George Soros this AM is quoted on CNBC saying  “the US will be a drag on worldwide economic recovery”

Rotation/Sector Rotation

What happens in a bull market is different sectors take over leadership. Leadership rotates. So far in the US – energy, tech and financials have lead. Many foreign markets have broken out before the Dow and other indexes reached new yearly highs. (Brazil, Chile, Australia, Mexico, Germany plus more) The US sector now in the lead is energy. Rotation is what the bulls love to see. It’s like a relay race where another runner picks up the baton or carries the markets.

The supporting themes that juices everything is a falling dollar,  the huge stimulus packages around the world, & bailed out shadow banks/financials.

Oil prices have now also broken out over $77 (new yearly high) and if they go north of $80 Main Street is going to get hit and Wall Street will eventually feel it too.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 40% (I haven’t done the math) off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI nine day rally flattened out two days ago and has fallen 99 points. It shot up a significant +91 points yesterday and closed at 2688 =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

Stocks went up so guess what happened to the dollar – The dollar reached a new yearly low two days and steadied yesterday at +0.04 % The dollar closed at $75.50. We have developed a support level just below $76 . The dollar closed below its support level. = Bullish for stocks

NB -

• Earnings will probably trump the dollar as the #1 influencing factor for the nest two weeks. But the falling dollar is the main driver of stocks right now and we have a long way to go till we hit last year’s $71 low.
• A slow decline in the dollar = good a rapid decline = bad .
  

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major and very crucial support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I will try to revise this section to make it clearer – Open to any private suggestions – just went over it today.

Recommendations-

• Buy GLD on dips.
• Our other positions have gone way up and are NOT worth chasing at this time .
  
• If you are a stock picker or short term trader do not chase hot stocks – wait for a dip. Everything seems overbought. Financials on dips still decent plays. Looks like dip is coming.
• Traders – Bought small position in CSCO a few days ago
• Traders – NVS (Novartis) 11+% profit so far. Usually would take profits now or at least sell 1/2, but going to wait till swine flu hits.
• Having reached a higher high on major indexes, you start to think more about how much to hold and how much to sell.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!