“Hopeless,

But Not Serious”

.

.

• You can also go long AAPL and short AMZN

• Technically APPL’s chart is much better than AMZN. The later seems to be free fall.

• Exit strategy – Exit 1/2 the trade with  5+% gain. Let the rest ride.  5% loss is downside exit.  Larger profits if you are doing puts and calls.

Puts and calls are preferable because you risk a set amount of $.

• Everyone from US Military Commanders to Apple Computer are held accountable for their actions. Bankstas are special.  They don’t have to mark to market their earnings results.

• Goldman Sachs earnings (even without mark to market accounting) report is worse than expected and has a revenue LOSS – next day goes up +6%. Apple, who has to use mark to market accounting has a worse than expected earnings report and goes down -6%

• No one will go to Jail – Price fixing scandal grows as major banks (BAC, C, JPM, DB) are accused of Price Fixing

• Noted Economist, Prof Mark Hudson explains how European Debt Crisis is “Bankstas waging war against the people of the world”

The 1% at the top benefit enormously from banks. They reap they huge bonuses & salaries, they trade the unregulated Credit Default Swaps, and they run and invest in High Frequency Trades.

Damn it feels good to privatize those gains, socialize the losses and not be held accountable.

What do we sheep do?

(except the Occupy Wall Street protestors)

BAC and other banks save enormously when you use your debit card instead of a check. Now they charge a $5 monthly debt card fee. Again and again and again and again….

We sheep passively get fleeced.

• All eyes on Sundays big meeting on European Debt

Taking it on the Chin.

After four very successful YOUR Stock List, the 14 stocks in YSL #5 is taking it on the chin.  The reasons

• Two days ago CROX had a bad earnings report and fell -39%
• Yesterday GRMC suffered from a poor forecast by a major analyst and fell -13%

• What was the world’s largest bank sank 20.32% yesterday. The financial sector 8.95% and the stock market had a top ten bad day. Logic looks for an oversold bounce in stocks today. But you have to wonder if its going to be a dead cat bounce. Remember we NEVER fixed the problem in the shadow banking sector and now banks are even way bigger than before (too big to fail)

• Standard and Poor downgraded the USA’s bond rating. Investors bought both US bonds and the dollar (see below) in defiance of the downgrade.

• The stock market went into meltdown for two reasons.  High Frequency Traders (see below) and the realization that austerity measures (contracting the money supply endorsed by the right wing) instead of producing more jobs would hurt the economy and stocks.

• We already knew this but its now public information. Japan’s government withheld information about the nuclear disaster, putting refugees in peril.

• Syria continues a brutal crackdown on democracy demonstrators. It’s been condemned by the Arab League, USA and many others. Latest

• Riots in London, Europe having worse debt problems than the USA. So not a pretty picture out there.

Bottom Line – The USA is going to to use austerity instead of trying to grow out way out of economic crisis. Like Herbert Hoover we are going to leave the supposed “free markets” untouched.  The fears of the end result has been demonstrated by the fall in stock prices since the manufactured budget crisis passed.

NB - This was sent in by RF and its fun Aug. 8th Borowitz Report

_______________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_______________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• What stocks need is a fundamental catalyst, to give potential investors hope. The Fed is the strongest entity out there to halt the slide. But something like QE#3 may soon become too little too late.

• This market is dominated by High Frequency Traders, that are pumping and dumping stocks in micro seconds. Jim Cramer opened his CNBC show with commentary on this. Here’s a video link

Cramer like anyone who is a traditional value and/or technical investor  realizes that the game is now rigged against you by HFT’s. – Why play when the deck is stacked.

• There is nothing you can do about this because the government for years  has blessed this as “free market” trading.  It has totally shattered real investing. It completely obliterates the kind of analysis that Cramer and technicians use.

• How does your understaffed, under paid government do anything about HFT’s? All the far right and many Democrats want to do is cut all regulations and regulators.

• For Traders - Fast Money (CNBC – 5 to 6 PM EST) show was listing examples of trades that happened yesterday where stocks dropped up to 10% in micro seconds. Then recovered in microseconds. This blows out a stop/sell order and makes a mockery of day and swing trading.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to to -142.58 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold). This is the lowest the MO has ever been. = Bullish

• $USD The Dollar rose again +0.36% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Technically we have moved higher for two weeks. Absolutely no impact from the S&P downgrade on the dollar. Overall = Neutral

• $TNX – The benchmark 10 year treasury bond actually went down in yield -8.59%

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Neither the massive bond or currency markets reacted negatively to the S&P downgrade. In fact they moved in the opposite direction as people bought both bonds and the dollar. Logic would say that the algorithms that the HFT’s use would recognize massively oversold markets and rally today. But what happens next is up to the HFT’s because most of what used to be your typical investors have left the building.

Today – Oversold markets bounce back, but is it another dead cat?

• Never Forget its is High Frequency Traders (This group is made up of high net worth individuals and entities) that now account for the vast majority of trading and manipulate trading

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The recent Washington debt crisis debacle has focused everyone on cutting the money supply.  Simple math – The less money that’s out there = less jobs = greater chance the “Great Recession” returns. European debt and emerging market’s inflation fears add to this.

• Long Term Outlook Listed Below.

______________

Paul’s Corner

Well well well, to sum up this market I give you the latest E-Trade ad:

LINK:

Taking a look at Ian Woodward’s newest tool, %B for market evaluation, we find a very over sold market. Just how bad has the market dropped? Take a look at where the stocks in the S&P 1500 are in relation to their Bollinger Band:

LINK:

The bar graph shows  92% of the stocks in the S&P 1500 are below the bottom of their Bollinger Band and the “Pie Chart” on the right shows 100% of the stocks are below the middle of their Bollinger Band. That’s really over sold and shows you how much damage has been done.  See Ian’s latest blog for %B discussion:

LINK:

The HGSI software is probably the best software  searching and ranking stocks.  You can create your own searches but if you are lazy it comes with searches from Charles Kirkpatrick,  Larry Conners,   Morales & Karcher (Pocket Pivots) and Woodward and Brown.

Woodward and Brown has one search that I check every evening and gives you an instant snap shot of the day, it’s called “Best of Woodward and Brown”. This search gives you the top 10 stocks found on all of the Woodward and Brown searches from the day.

Here are the top stocks found on a  nasty day:  AKRX, BVN, EFSC, EXLS, MFN, NGD, QCOR, GOLD, RIC, AUY As you can see it was a flight to gold and a few Parma thrown in.

At 7 AM this morning we find futures sharply up so it appears the carnage is over….sure…..I’ll wait a few days before I venture back out onto the dance floor.

So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up, is this a new morning in America or just another lousy craft show? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim, here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a mistake to sell and take profits. Every thing is way too volatile to buy now

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY. I have placed puts on all of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

Expect a bounce higher today

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

_________________

Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Greece

The Greek debt crisis has impacted the world. Just what are the austerity measures imposed by European Banks on Greece. Here’s the top 5  from CNBC. (CNBC is an ultra pro bank/Wall Street network.) More details at link.

NB all prices are in EUROs not dollars

• Raise Taxes – 7 trillion over next 3/4 years. Includes a 23% value added tax.
• Wage cuts – 15% public sector (huge 25% of Greece is public sector workers.)
• Military Cuts – about .5 trillion
• Social Security costs – about  5 trillion – means test and retirement age moves from 61 to 65.
• Luxury Tax – All they said was thy were going to soak the rich too.

Lets compare this with what the US is doing to balance it budget.  Obviously both parties are to blame and they are far more interested in ideology than solutions. However, one sides total lack of willingness to compromise was pointed out in Obama’s press conference.

Republican’s are not willing even to compromise on

“limiting tax deductions for corporate jets.”

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

_________________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

• Chart of the Day – Shows HFT trading over 15 major exchanges (not dark pools)  - “The image below reflects high frequency trading (HFT) operations with quotes in milliseconds. The sharp increases in the chart are what’s termed “quote stuffing” as the machines try to engineer some action over the four minute span.”

Thanks to Dave Fry. The quote and chart are his

• At the end of he quarter managers of stock funds “window dress” their stocks. Part of this rally is “window dressing” or stock managers buying the “hot” stocks to impress their clients so that they stay invested. The major factor is the HFT are buying. Both the quarter and QE2 end today.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +52.72 (above +30 somewhat overbought , above +60 overbought, above +90 OMG overbought) Repeat -The MO has been unable to get above the +50 range for 6 months. It sure looks like the +50 high of the last 6 months is about to fall = long term bullish. Short term almost overbought = Bearish

• $USD The Dollar fell  again significantly -0.55% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. Big reversal down in last 3 days. Most of this movement is based on Greece. Short term tend for stocks now = Bullish/Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term – Repeat-  A raging bull is stampeding and right now it looks like the only barrier is that markets are almost oversold and what earnings season might have next month.  MO is at +53 almost oversold

Long Term

• Fed tells Wall Street and Banks - it has your back. The Fed with its surprise announcement favoring banks (swipe fees)  over consumers has sent a message to the markets that it will do whatever it takes takes. MC & Visa up 10+% and banks rallied on $8.5 billion BAC settlement. This $ went to big hedge funds etc. not to middle class.

• It certainly looks like the HFT’s can sustain a low volume rally without Fed liquidity (QE2 which ends today). Earnings season, Chinese inflation, or something else may trump this, but for now bulls have regained momentum and the only barrier is overbought markets.

• Obviously, people who buy/sell stocks think the Greek crisis is bullish.

• Reading Tea Leaves - Changing back to NEUTRAL for the summer.

______________

Your Stock List

Here’s the LINK to a spreadsheet of YSL #4.

YSL #4 beat the benchmark S&P 500. So did YSL 1 & 2 & 3

Remember t0 send in by emails or post in the comment section any choices YOU have for YSL # 5

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock

Short term strategy is to short overbought stocks. –  Stocks did not rally from their earlier highs so I did NOT “nibble on” the TZA trade. Will do so if the Dow goes up 60+ points and I’m watching.

NB – The long term strategy is no longer to short rallies since outlook has turned to NEUTRAL

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

Paul is on break for a couple weeks.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative/neutral on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are resolved.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Yankee Bob - just one week before the baseball season starts and Bob is back with an editorial on Nuclear Power in today’s comments section. Here’s an excerpt -

“…First rule of poker or gaming theory is never bet more then you are prepared to lose. Who paces bets on nuclear energy generation? Not the people.  Corporations looking for profit place the bets…”

Hint  - The young Red Sox’s fan pictured above is NOT making a comment on Yankee Bob’s editorial, but on a baseball team.

Investor In Wonderland – Stock market editorial below in Reading The Tea Leaves Section.

Radiation In Japan – Two other prefectures next to Tokyo have the glow in the dark radiated water. (so maybe it doesn’t glow, but I sure folks wish radiated water did glow) No “harmfull” levels in Tokyo today – or so we are told by those oh so reliable officials. Steam from all 4 reactors today. 1st time from reactor #1. This from helicopter crew with might big zoom lens 30 kilometers away from nuke plant.

Hacker Collective/Anonymous - Out with proclamation – These folks exposed The Chamber of Commerce’s hidden smear tactics against opponents and BAC’s hidden manipulations.

“getting our National Rights and dreams back….To effectively reform the system that has enslaved us, we must consider the advice and example of those who have preceded us. Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and JFK are good places to start. All took fierce positions against central banking, government corruption and corporate power… The time has come for us to unite, the time has come for us to stand up and fight. ”

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Another weak volume liquidity driven manipulated rally. Fed POMO buying ended at 11:00AM EST and that’s when US stocks started to rally
• 2 days of Fed buying = $15 billion Sure helps stocks to have a tsunami of liquidity behind the trading desks of Goldman Sachs and other shadow institutions/primary Fed dealers.
• BAC (Bank of America) was NOT allowed to issue a dividend. Our cover up specialists, oops excuse me – government regulators said no dividend for BAC, they didn’t pass the stress test, but its all opaque because no numbers were published and would you trust the numbers of people who post government job could be to work for financials they regulate.
• New home sales dipped 17% – another horrible statistic in housing. XHB – The ETF for homebuilders rallied on the news – Really I’m not kidding.

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose significantly +0.75% One day does not change the pattern. Clear bearish longer term pattern still in place. For stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -0.81 Right in the middle – not overbought or oversold. = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

Welcome to the world of liquidity driven Shadow & Central Bank manipulated markets. Not Alice in Wonderland, but Investor in Wonderland.

The Bad news

• Housing down 17%
• Huge Bank fails stress test.
• Oil Prices high and moving higher
• The dollar up significantly
• Radiated water in a city of 13 million people
• Another oil war looks like a protracted stalemate.
• Europe debt crisis grows as Portugal’s government collapses on a no confidence vote

So what does our stock market do – A RALLY

There is a perverse logic to this bad news is fodder for a rally.  The more bad news there is the more Central Banks (especially the USA) around the world print money or institute quantitative easing. This is all leading to one big bubble bursting down the road, but for now we have all leaned to balance on the top of that ever expanding bubble.

From Yesterday on Japan’s growing Nuclear problems –  Investors or media in the USA may not pick up on this story immediately, but it sure looks like it has major long term consequences that will impact Japan’s GDP.

At least Japan’s markets were actually DOWN a bit on bad news. But just a bit because Japan, just like the USA is going to print gobs of  TOILET PAPER (aka money)  to pay off their debt.

Short Term Bottom Line – So in honor of baseball season in just one week – Put Your Rally Caps on – This is a Bubblicious Wonderland,

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
• Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

UWM - – Sell order still in at 43. 93 (1% above what i was bought for) which will close entire position.

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. – approaching highs of last month & 2010 – I do own this ETF in other accounts and have sold covered calls on some of it.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. - Shouda Woulda Coulda – Up +3.73% two days ago - Dipped yesterday, but ended up confirming or holding onto gains. Strong consideration to buy any dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Buy the dip

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Another day or two like yesterday and the Long Term Outlook goes back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

Our problems are small relative to the people of Japan, Let’s take a moment to remember their  horrific situation.

Japan

Just like Al Jazeera provided superior coverage for Arab news, so does NHK World in English. It has the view from Japan. A second hydrogen explosion (video) has occurred this AM.

The Bank of Japan has dumped $185 billion into their economy today – a lot of this was in quantitative easing. Stocks there down over 6% & marginally elsewhere.

Anonymous

David Frum - Republican pols fear their base, Dem pols despise it.”

The State Department has “fired” its spokesperson PJ Crowley. He stated that US citizen awaiting trial Bradley Manning (Wikileaks informant) treatment as “ridiculous, counterproductive and stupid,”

Private Manning’s (not convicted of anything) conditions from Salon – “23-hour-a-day solitary confinement, barring him from exercising in his cell, punitively imposing “suicide watch” restrictions on him against the recommendations of brig psychiatrists, and subjecting him to prolonged, forced nudity designed to humiliate and degrade.”

Also from the Atalantic –  “to sleep without clothes and stand naked for morning parade:”

Speaking out against that abuse is a firing offense in the Obama White House.

At least the Cheney/Bush White House focused on non Americans.

This is just WRONG, no matter what you feel about Wikileaks

_____________

The (in)famous group of computer hackers Anonymous (video) taking non violent action against the oligarchy that runs the USA through Bank of America today. They have downloaded files on BOA at 8:00 AM EST

If you may remember Anonymous  caught the US Chamber of Commerce and security firms/lobbyists conspiring  to smear opponents and their families.

You can follow this via Twitter here

So YOU can decide for yourself – Here’s the video Operaton A99  - Empire State Rebellion

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Major US indexes had a typical manipulated (FED liquidity) Friday. The same type of low volume rally that we’ve had for the past 6 months.
• Nothing could shake this pattern until we started having oil price over $100 a barrel. Now add Japan’s natural and nuclear disaster
• “what is most impressive is how well this market has held up in the face of a series of events that could only be described as a Chicken Little world.” –  from John Nayardi - Living in Interesting and Dangerous Times analysis of  events starting with Bill Gross (see last week’s investors411) cashing out of US Treasuries to Japan.
• Bahrain opposition/protest leaders say Saudi’s who troops are now helping dictator their constitutes an act of war. This is Sunni vs. Shia so potential  very explosive
• Technical analysts from Tom DeMark to Paul’s favorite at HGSI have spoken and so many others out for months that a correction was coming. Could the fundamental factors now make this a reality?

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar has changed direction AGAIN. Down a a significant -0.65% yesterday. Chart for last three weeks still clearly bearish for dollar.   Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index and its trumping the dollar see below. The dollar is flip flopping more than a fish brought out of water,. Impossible to call right now. For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Neutral.
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -26.62 . We broke a 3 month old support level and that’s bearish. But we are approaching -60 and that’s bullish. The short term  MO Stocks outlook = Neutral/Bearish

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

Technical analysis for all its benefits does not move markets. Fundamentals do.

Technicals are like road signs and traffic lights. There may be a bridge out ahead or a super highway with no traffic. Investors has listed a parade of technical analysts who have sounded the alarm over the last few months. Economically Investors411 agrees, but its because fundamental factors have changed.  Remember, What happens economically is NOT always what happens to stocks.

Its the fundamentals that drive stocks. Fundamentals like The Fed’s quantitative easing drives stocks, $100 dollar oil drives stocks and now economic catastrophes like Japan drives stocks.

The Chicken Little moment for the US economy and perhaps the world comes when investors no longer have faith in the US dollar. That’s when the bubble explodes. We are moving in that direction as gold moves higher and the dollar falls, but far from collapse.

Bill Gross’s move out of treasuries was an early warning sign. But until the dollar starts collapsing chicken little stays in the hen house

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Rallied of its 50DMA..

___________________

Positions

TNA – Obviously the news out of Japan has changed dramatically. Hundreds feared has turned into well over 10,000 and we have at least partial reactor meltdowns in at lest two reactors perhaps more. – A bad day to be long at the open. 5% stop loss in place and will sell 1/2 near open.

DGP & SLV – Have the potential to explode higher. Reason – Investor’s after Japan will believe even more no currency is safe. Will try to buy

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver SLV and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high and has started to pull back.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

Special Note - From Friday “Considering changing the Long Term Outlook to NEUTRAL” – Changed – Ironic its NOT high oil prices, but Japan that is the tipping point. Japan is the a serious factor ($5 trillion dollar per year) in global growth. When Long term Outlook is first changed it may bounce back. Time will tell

The dollar war is certainly reason to exercise some caution. I have a stop on the more speculative SSO at what I bought it for.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Yesterday shortly after noon I issued the following statement in the comments section in response to one of YOUR emails “Freaking sneaky.” China, in what has to be a co-ordinated move with our Fed, unexpectedly raised interest rates. This sent the dollar higher and stock lower. It also toasted gold. Nothing changes in the long term. More later – for now see LINK

We still have the Fed willing to print & dump money, but the China move will radically alter the situation for a while. China had not risen interest rates since 2007 and this move caught everyone with their pants down. People in short positions had to buy the stock or dollar to cover their losses before those losses became to sever. Therefore the market sank.

What worries investors is China embarking on an interest rate rising cycle. Probably not, but impossible to determine. Did China toss a monkey wrench into our young bull market?

Wish these had become longer term positions than a few weeks to a month. Very sorry to get stopped out, but that’s life.

Paul R reports that YOUR stock list has improved +21.17% since Aug. 3rd. See Comments section of blog.

Couldn’t find a dump truck, but money tree will do

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

An army of editorials Monday from Wall Street insiders say the mortgage/foreclosure crisis for shadow banks is “large but manageable.” ($100 to 120 billion cost figure was used as an estimate) In fact, BAC has partly dropped moratorium on some foreclosures. These editorials into the opaque world of shadow financials have seemingly calmed investors and the #1 mortgage bank (BAC) after a 10+% loss the last few days rose +3.01% in huge but decreased volume.

The Fed does what its done for well over a month and manipulated the US stocks by injecting $6.2 billion into the economy through the POMO program.  This figure has grown in recent days. The dollar rally died and stocks rose. If shadow financials are getting injections of cash like this its hard to see any crisis hurt their bottom line.

AAPL had another well above average earning report. As predicted, after up 10 days in a row investors sold the news in after hours trading and the stock was down about -5%. Apple is so big it makes up 24% of the NASDQ.

So look for a hit in techs early today. Right now it looks like NASDQ will be down -1.5% at the open.

Markets have seemingly absorbed the hit to shadow banks and will probably absorb the hit to AAPL. The quicker that happens the more bullish for the markets. Obviously stock to watch is AAPL today.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell -0.14% yesterday. The inverse correlation is not always perfect. A big move higher in AM was crushed. Overall trend of falling dollar trend for US stocks is = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets, exporting countries] Fell a very minor-0.22% yesterday. An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall. A very slight stutter and now moving up. Trend  = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Rose to +10.50 yesterday. Lot of room to move both higher and lower. Momentum is with the stock bulls but location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Chaos has been restored by the Fed backing up the dump truck of freshly minted cash and dumping. This reminds everyone from Investors to High Frequency Traders the Fed is going to print and dump, print and dump, print and dump…

The MO is in neutral so there’s room to buy the dip, of a rally.

Obvious end game of printing and duping money is INFLATION.  The play investors have made to diversify and protect against inflation is into commodities like gold.

What to watch –  For Bulls -

• Does BAC continue to stabilize and/or move higher.
• Does APPL after 4 to 5% early hit stabilize and/or move higher.
• Key is still the dollar – tracking ETF is UUP

Best read of tea leaves is if foreclosure crisis couldn’t sink bulls, then AAPL earnings (maybe a bigger hit) will not sink bulls. Market is being manipulated by the Fed’s print and dump. As long as there is no end in sight for printing and dumping stock move higher.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity).
• SSO (2x what S&P does) – Tightened stop and may sell/take profit today.

Buying dips in gold, oil, and recommended stocks still a viable option for both Traders and Investors. Commodities like gold and oil also give you diversity.

We should see a dip this AM. Perhaps throughout the day. Perhaps longer. But as long as the Money Tree at the Fed keeps growing or the Dump truck keeps dumping bulls should rule.

Any of the above are decent plays along with recommended ETF’s and stocks.  As PAUL constantly & The Critic on AAPL, reminds – don’t go chasing those stocks that have soared too far above their 50 day moving average.

Investors411 chief strategy is to look for equities that are trending higher, then consolidating (buy the dip) before the next move up

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening comments on stocks and sectors in the comments section.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!