Couldn’t find a dump truck, but money tree will do

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

An army of editorials Monday from Wall Street insiders say the mortgage/foreclosure crisis for shadow banks is “large but manageable.” ($100 to 120 billion cost figure was used as an estimate) In fact, BAC has partly dropped moratorium on some foreclosures. These editorials into the opaque world of shadow financials have seemingly calmed investors and the #1 mortgage bank (BAC) after a 10+% loss the last few days rose +3.01% in huge but decreased volume.

The Fed does what its done for well over a month and manipulated the US stocks by injecting $6.2 billion into the economy through the POMO program.  This figure has grown in recent days. The dollar rally died and stocks rose. If shadow financials are getting injections of cash like this its hard to see any crisis hurt their bottom line.

AAPL had another well above average earning report. As predicted, after up 10 days in a row investors sold the news in after hours trading and the stock was down about -5%. Apple is so big it makes up 24% of the NASDQ.

So look for a hit in techs early today. Right now it looks like NASDQ will be down -1.5% at the open.

Markets have seemingly absorbed the hit to shadow banks and will probably absorb the hit to AAPL. The quicker that happens the more bullish for the markets. Obviously stock to watch is AAPL today.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell -0.14% yesterday. The inverse correlation is not always perfect. A big move higher in AM was crushed. Overall trend of falling dollar trend for US stocks is = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets, exporting countries] Fell a very minor-0.22% yesterday. An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall. A very slight stutter and now moving up. Trend  = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Rose to +10.50 yesterday. Lot of room to move both higher and lower. Momentum is with the stock bulls but location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Chaos has been restored by the Fed backing up the dump truck of freshly minted cash and dumping. This reminds everyone from Investors to High Frequency Traders the Fed is going to print and dump, print and dump, print and dump…

The MO is in neutral so there’s room to buy the dip, of a rally.

Obvious end game of printing and duping money is INFLATION.  The play investors have made to diversify and protect against inflation is into commodities like gold.

What to watch –  For Bulls -

• Does BAC continue to stabilize and/or move higher.
• Does APPL after 4 to 5% early hit stabilize and/or move higher.
• Key is still the dollar – tracking ETF is UUP

Best read of tea leaves is if foreclosure crisis couldn’t sink bulls, then AAPL earnings (maybe a bigger hit) will not sink bulls. Market is being manipulated by the Fed’s print and dump. As long as there is no end in sight for printing and dumping stock move higher.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity).
• SSO (2x what S&P does) – Tightened stop and may sell/take profit today.

Buying dips in gold, oil, and recommended stocks still a viable option for both Traders and Investors. Commodities like gold and oil also give you diversity.

We should see a dip this AM. Perhaps throughout the day. Perhaps longer. But as long as the Money Tree at the Fed keeps growing or the Dump truck keeps dumping bulls should rule.

Any of the above are decent plays along with recommended ETF’s and stocks.  As PAUL constantly & The Critic on AAPL, reminds – don’t go chasing those stocks that have soared too far above their 50 day moving average.

Investors411 chief strategy is to look for equities that are trending higher, then consolidating (buy the dip) before the next move up

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening comments on stocks and sectors in the comments section.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

R. KY Senator Mitch McConnell

Blocking Financial Reform

Republicans are considering blocking even debate on financial reform. Ewanapat thinks I’d like his comment/information/link. He’s wrong I Love it. The 3rd Fed Governor publicly has come out against the “shadow” banks that are too big to fail.

There are a few sensible Republicans (Simon Johnson and his Baseline Senerio best source on this) who are bucking Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (see yesterday’s Investors411) do nothing approach.

Taxes

Mama Jama has sent in a link to a site that reales 80% of major corporations evade taxes by having offshore accounts etc. How much does this cost you? $637 in MA and small business has to pay their full share.

Tea Party Flops

Only a 1500+ showed up for the supposed “huge” final day of tea party tour on April 15th (Tax Day) in DC yesterday. A few thousand more showed up in Boston the day before but NOT the newly elected  Republican Senator or the Republican running for governor. They called the Obama administration a “gagsta government.”

Remember we many demonstrations of 10,000 20,000 and even larger protesting the Iraq war and other left of center issues all over the country and there was almost no coverage. Yet even on the financial channel CNBC they are headlining the Tea Party protest this AM.  This is

The issue of deficits is real, but the media distortion of the Tea Party is real too.  We live in a world created by media and the thousands of past protest that get over 1500 people in DC never got the kind of coverage that the Tea Party gets. This is media bias or media manipulation.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

US markets improved a bit on Wednesday’s significant gains in above average volume = Bullish.

Google had  earnings report = an almost 4.71% fall in post market trading = Bearish

BAC (Bank of America) seems to have had blowout earnings numbers this AM up @1.5% = Bullish

Something called a Fibonacci retracement is important in worked of technical analysis. The benchmark S&P 500 is sitting just below a critical 62% retracement from its 2008 high according to analyst on CNBC. This is a strong resistance level. = Bearish

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell to +8.67 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is still in NEUTRAL territory – technically neither overbought or oversold.
• US Dollar – rose +0.36% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra – right now The Dollar Rules Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up. The dollar broke though its 50 Day Moving Average support level and next significant support and yesterday rose to just below resistance (Remember the 50 day MA is called its support on the way down and resistance on the way up).

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

I realize the TYH explanation will make some of your eyes glaze over because it is too technical. The best time to buy is when the McClellan is oversold and any trades now (McClellan Oscillator is neutral) is riskier.

TYH – (10%) (3X technology) Up well over 3% since bought. File under - If its not broken don’t fix it Mistake? – In the past Investors 411 sold 1/2 when TYH rose 3% and let the rest ride. Then I put a stop/sell order at what it was bought for or 3% below what it was bought for.  Bottom line here – selling 1/2 into any minor rally.

UWM – (5%) (does 2X small cap stocks) Bought yesterday at 37.57. Stop/loss set at 7% below what it was bought for

EWZ – (10%) (Brazil) Holding on

Monday’s are usually good days and some major tech companies report next week. So expect stocks to drift higher into the close.

Caution – Holding individual stocks into earnings is obviously dangerous – Even giants like INTC (+5%) or GOOG (-5%) can make huge moves. Smaller stocks even greater.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

US and world markets had one of those now rare winning days (see chart below) so lets take a look at the trends in American politics.

Hoping Obama Fails

Remember the Republicans all during the Iraq war accusing their fellow American’s and the rest of the world “you’re either with us or against us.” Now, radical right winger Rush Limbaugh who seems to have taken over the leadership of the Republican party is actually proudly broadcasting “he hopes Obama fails”

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Where’s Waldo

Has anyone seen or heard from the former president?

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Disintegrating Republican Chair

The Chair of the Republican National Committee is supposed to be a fellow called Michel Steele. Well he took on Limbaugh calling him and “entertainer” whose show was “ugly” and “incendiary” After a day of getting blasted by Limbaugh, Steel did a 180 and apologized. Almost every right and left wing blog is gushing stories on Limbaugh filling the void of leadership in the Republican party and the huge blow to the image of the Republican party.

Reminder – everything in light blue is a link to a different source – like the two above. Just click on them.

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Obama’s Mortgage Plan

Yesterday Obama/Geithner unveiled their mortgage plan to keep 9 million homeowners in their homes. Markets did move higher, in part on this news.(see below)

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A PHD from Oxford and Funny

If you think Phd from Oxford can’t be funny, political and relevant, then you haven’t watched Rachel Maddow Last night the commedian/poltical satirist was on Jay Leno. Maddow has a show on MSNBC at 9:00PM EST

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How to Bring Down the Deficit

Simple Stop empire building and approving hundreds of billions for  unneeded cold war weapons systems. We thought Obama was going to to take this on, but if  his slooooooooow Iraq withdraw plan is any indication of  the direction he’s he’s taking this country we’re in for Bush lite. American’s are so paranoid that we spend as much on the military as the whole rest of the world combined.

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AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Stocks

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Technicals & Fundamentals

Finally a green day across the board for US and most of the world’s stock markets.  Maybe it was the 75 billion mortgage plan, the China stimulus plan or just what Investors411 has bee predicting and oversold technical bounce that moved stocks higher.  Most likely a combination of all three.

The monthly jobless report is big news (announced Friday) and its going to be hard to see stocks move higher today in front of the jobs report.  In this case traders (there are very few investors left) may sell the rumor (worse than expected jobs report) and buy the news (an in line with expectations jobs report)  This could extend Wednesday’s bullish reversal. I’m trying to be optimistic

All our secondary indicators remain mildly positive for the bulls. See charts of BDSI, Treasuries & Libor on right hand side of blog.  Of special interest is the Baltic Dry Sea Index that measures shipping. Seems like China is still importing and exporting goods.

The major problem continues to be investors realizing just how many trillions of dollars of wealth has evaporated as major financial institutions posted unregulated, fraudulent, over leveraged profits from what was basically an insurance scam.

Our government and these companies continue to hide their losses and few like Senators like Bernie Sanders seems to be wiling to go after them. (see yesterday’s update.  

Today NY AG Andrew Cuomo is going after Bank of Ameica/Merill Lynch for exorbitant salaries. This is flashy, but it doesn’t emphasize the size and scope of the damage done by financial institution over the last decade.

Long Term Outlook = BEARS RULE

See STRATEGY, POSITIONS, OVERVIEW  & ARCHIVES sections of blog for more

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!