Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
July 15, 2012

Recession/Deficit Solutions

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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The Greatest Economists of the 20th Century

Agreed that you Stimulate Your way Out of a

Recession

.

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Solutions to The Deficit

Stimulus or Austerity

(Part 1)

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The  Outstanding Success of

The Obama Stimulus

.

.

Why Stimulus Works

&

Austerity Doesn’t

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The Obama Stimulus cost $787 billion.

Our national debt is @ $15 trillion.

A 5.2% one time addition to our debt.

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Under Obama & his Stimulus

Job growth went from -800,000 to +300,000

GDP went from -8.9% to +3.9%. = +12.8%

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Millions of jobs

created millions of taxpayers

& the GDP expanded.

Taxes paid by those with jobs

REDUCE the deficit

year after year after year…

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Everything was working until

*The Stimulus ran out

*The Austerity/Banksta Republicans

won the House of Representatives

&

*Obama, himself, put more focus on

austerity instead of stimulus

.

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Republican blocked virtually every

stimulus/jobs growth plan.

&

Had to be dragged kicking and screaming

for even a payroll tax cut

.

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Let’s see what happens to

the deficit

when Banksta/austerity

gain even more control.

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Examples – Austerity as a Solution

The European countries in economic trouble.

Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, & Spain

.’

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Ireland’s “free market” economy was

the goal of every Banksta in America.

The Baking Industry had “captured government”

Regulators were no where to be found.

Then Something Hit the Fan

.

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Ireland was the first country to impose

The Austerity Solution

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The Deficit

Exploded Higher

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Ireland Government Debt To GDP

.

Ireland’s unemployment rate exploded

from 4.6% in 2008 to 14.3% today

..

IRELAND with Austerity

A 311% INCREASE in Unemployment

A 433% INCREASE in Debt to GDP

.

In Hard Economic Times

Austerity = More Debt

..

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More Examples

The Other 4 Troubled European Countries

who have adopted the austerity solution.

All have

Debt to GDP ratios that are still exploding higher

All  have unemployment still exploding higher

For data on these countries see this LINK

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Next Blog – Common Sense works, Regulated Banking works, When Austerity works, Those plutocrats that don’t give a damn, but say they do – More Solutions.

FINIS


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July 3, 2012

Two Scandals Explode

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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International Banking

Scandal Explodes

b

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Too Big to Fail

Bankstas

Skim YOUR money from

2005 to 2009

Before, During, After 2008

worldwide financial meltdown

.

Massive Furor in UK/Europe

Where’s the Outrage Here?

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Who owns the politicians

and the media?

.

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“There’s vast criminality in Wall Street now.


It’s bribery, theft, fraud, bid rigging, price


fixing, gambling, loan sharking. All of these


things, it’s all organized.” - MATT TAIBBI

.

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Just 1 of the 17

too big to fail

Banksta/Vampire Squids

has settled with

gov’t regulators

[List includes a who's who

of too big to fail US banks]

.

Skimming/profiting from

YOU and World Hunger

.

Today’s Headline

Barclay’s CEO resigns

in disgrace

______

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We’re all outraged that none

of the plutocracy ever goes to jail

under Obama

.

.

The catastrophic outrage is

Romney and Republicans want to

cut Regulators and Regulations

that are catching bankstas

who steal YOUR money

.

******************

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Drug Cartel Scandal

Explodes

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$3 Billion Fine

Biggest Ever

.

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Glaxo Smith Kline

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Failure to Report safety problems

Promoted drugs for unapproved uses

Drugs that cause heart failure

Drugs we give our Children

Seven Years of deceit

.

At least, the Amounts of Fines

are increasing

$22+ billion collected

.

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How much longer are

you

going to remain silent?

.,

Romney and Republicans

are demanding

less regulations, less regulators

and “free markets”

for the Banking and Drug cartels.

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STOCKS

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.

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Unless we get

regulators and regulations

the ultimate end pictured above

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But for now

Second half of 2012 Outlook now

in POSITIONS section of blog

(scroll down to Outlook for 2nd 1/2 of 2012)

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From Yesterday

“Short term - Hopeful, of bullish bias (see above) till earnings season – Starts end if next week.

If stocks can hold onto or add to Friday’s gains today/this week – its positive for US stocks”

We held onto Friday’s gains = Bullish

.

The McClellan Oscillator

is at OMG overbought levels

+85.09.

For over three years it has been

impossible to move higher from

OMG overbought in the short term

.

Expect, at least consolidation

before any significant gains

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Long Term Outlook

3+ months

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS


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.

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October 28, 2011

Boycott BOA

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Fighting Crony Capitalism


Take the crony out of CapitalismNYT’s Nicholas Kristof’s excellent defense of Occupy Wall Street


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Boycott BOA

10 Reasons NOT to Bank with the mother of all Bankstas

Bank of America.

From Nomi Prins at Truthout. Of all the ways  (hidden fees, lawsuits, nailing vets, over charges, pay’s no taxes) BOA charges vs other local banks I find reason # 6 the most compelling. They use your deposit to gamble hidden over leveraged derivatives.

“The total amount of derivatives in the FDIC-insured portion of B of A as of mid-year was $53.7 trillion, up 10 percent from $48.9 trillion the prior year, and up nearly 35 percent from its pre-fall [2008] crisis level of $40 trillion.”

Your over leveraged FDIC insured deposits at BOA  multiplied the severity of the 2008 housing/financial crisis. Who knows how deep BOA and other banksters (shadow banks) were into the European sovereign debt crisis? – Our Fed is not audited, US banks don’t have mark to market accounting, and the whole 500 trillion derivitives market hides its trades.


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Bankstas Take A Hit In Europe


Yes, over leveraged European financials did get a $1.4 trillion bailout fund. But they were also forced to take a “50% haircut”on the Greek bonds the held. How much of this haircut that will come out of their bottom line is open for debate. (See links in yesterday’s blog)

Bankers and Bankstas - There are normal Bankers who take our deposits and use them as collateral for loans that help people and small businesses. The good guys.

Bankstas take our FDIC insured deposits and use them  as protection to play casino capitalism, on bundles of mortgages, sovereign debt, student loans etc., called derivatives  or Credit Default Swaps.

This over leveraging is done in hidden transaction in an opaque $500 trillion derivatives market. The biggest poorly regulated bankstas are now too big to fail – Example BOA.


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STOCKS

From Yesterday - Today’s move higher should be Dramatic Not Erratic. US stock indexes saw a significant move higher (3.18% to 5.26%) in big volume , but European stocks saw an even bigger move. ETF’s that track France and Germany up 8+% (see positions below)

A better than expected 2.5% US GDP for the last 1/4 is another solid fundamental for bulls.
A contrarian view to Investors411 – Time to Fade the Rally

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Reading Tea Leaves


  • Our secondary indicator, the Put Call Ratio is at 0.91. Well below its 50DMA which is at 1.15 = Bullish
  • For more on MO & PCR see POSITION Section of blog (scroll down)

Stock traders/investors put their money down yesterday -  The proposed solution in Europe looks like it will have a somewhat similar impact on stocks that the  of 2009/2010 Obama/Bernanke bailouts did. In fact, traders/investors have been putting their money down since the lows almost a month ago.

It is rational to expect some kind of pull back today. But, there are lots on the sidelines who have missed out on the move looking to buy the dip. Volume was big yesterday, but not yet the huge kind of volume associated with a climax selloff.

Unfortunately, the bigger part of this move off the bottom is probably over, but it looks like we may be able to reach this year’s highs again.


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Positions


SPY(ETF tracks S&P 500 or SPX) bought at 123.5, now at 128.63

Reminder – Your Stock List#5 – . 5 of our 14 stocks took  some big earnings hits (one on an analysts downgrade) So Paul & I have decided to drop TSU, RES, CROX, GMCR, & CPHD. . LINK to entire list (scroll down)

Under consideration.

SSO (ETF that is @2X SPX) Buy on dip. Investors411 uses a buy the dip strategy in markets that are trending higher.

EWG (ETF that tracks Germany) and/or EWQ (ETF that tracks France) Both are higher risk because they are on the cutting edge of what’s happening. A bigger technical breakout than US indexes. Yesterdays melt up was fundamentally focused on the fact that specifically German and French financial institution would weather the default crisis.

I favor Germany – better overall economic fundamentals. Buy the dip.

XLF (ETF for financial stocks) For those that can handle more risk UYG (2X financials) & FAS (3x financials) Several Investors411 bloggers have made out handsomely with gains of 50+% trading January Calls on FAS.

Mea CulpaAll of the above new considerations should have been listed Monday after the Upgrade.

Note – These are official Investors411 Positions – I buy each position mentioned.


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Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months

Investors411 upgraded its Outlook on Monday to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. Reasoning

  • Technically, we broke out of this summers trading pattern. The resistance and now support level for benchmark S&P 500 is @ 1225.
  • Fundamentally, the perception that European banks will survive (see Banksta at War) another over leveraged crisis
  • A 2.5% GDP Growth in the third quarter is NOT a recession number.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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