Casualty Battle for castle Bear Skull yesterday as Bulls stampede

Again a must see short video from Dr George Gerbner on Violence

Hope you joined us in making $. Yesterday Investors411 called for a rally –  Castle Bear Scull fell and, as predicted, BULLS rallied – “Not guts no glory – I’d love to wait for a 100 point Dow dip, but you can feel the bulls breath & it may never come before the rally.” (more below) .

Jim’s List

Here’s a short list of Senate candidates I’m supporting either with cash and in one case time. I also like F.S.’s Congressman Grayson in Florida. He’s been “change we can believe in.” I’ve tried to choose close races and focused on solid candidates like those who had the conviction to vote yes to break up shadow banks. The other criteria was if they were running against someone that is truly over the edge on the far right.

#1 Russ Feingold Wisconsin – Progressive maverick who haas done everything from more body armor on HV vehicles in Iraq to campaign finance reform.

#2 Harry Reid Nevada – Harry did vote to break up the shadow banks,but it is more his Tea party opponent who is the concern. Example she no longer wants us to be the leader of the free world – she wants us out of the UN.

#3 Alexi Giannoulias Illinois – Close race & Alexi does not take a dime from corporate PAC’s or federal lobbyists.

#4 Chris Coons Delaware – Good man in race against Tea Party/Sarah Palin opponent whose latest scandal is being investigated for stealing living expenses from her campaign fund. See my post in comments section of blog for this.

#5 Barbara Boxer California – Strong progressive who is running against someone who did a poor job running HP computers. Her opponent knows how to outsource jobs.

That’s my list in order of preference. Barr thanks for letting me publish them and you guys for asking him for it in the comments section of the blog for the list

Jim J.

[Jim's right - Lots of you in comments section were vocal about wanting his list - so here it is. Like the list? Don't like the list? Have your own list of candidates from whatever party. Post them in the comments section of the blog. Barr]

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term for the Day -Over extended – From Investopedia

US Markets

US stock markets rallied is what has become standard – reduced from day before and below  average volume. Just about every standard text book on stock analysis uses volume as the  a very or most significant factor in a price move. This is no longer the case for many many months.

Long Term Is this a bubble building? – Yes Here’s what’s holding us up technically & fundamentally

• You have a bunch of hard core investors who are holding onto stocks no matter what
• Companies are buying back stock instead of creating jobs or using $ for expanded research.
• BB/HFT’s trading.
• Investments by wealth sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds (the world’s oligarchs)
• A central bank that keeps pouring/printing money ($5 billion yesterday) into the economy
• Emerging markets are red hot. US money is investing abroad in these emerging markets – not US jobs.

Bubbles can take years to build – Look at the stock market leading up to the housing/finance crisis. So for now we ride the wave using the MO as our guide.

Obama gave an hour long town hall for  the ultra right wing financial channel CNBC and stocks rallied in front of & after his speech.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell  -0.08% yesterday. Dollar seems to be starting another consolidation but longer term, falling dollar trend for stocks = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a -1.79% yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. 6th down day in a row, with rate of fall decreasing. After 8 week bull run trend could be changing to bearish, but still= Neutral
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to +48.47 yesterday. We’re only 11.5 points away from overbought territory, but still = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

The benchmark S&P 500 stands at 1143 and just about every analyst is telling their client that 1220 is the next serious resistance level. Also, the strong triple top resistance level or castle bear skull was shattered (see yesterday’s Investors411)

Bulls are going to do everything they can to drive stocks to 122o. Today is a confirmation of rally day.

• give back over 1/2 of the gains bearish
• the less we retreat the better
• Adding to gains bullish

Our early change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH seems to have been the right call.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions –  EWS (Singapore), USO (price of oil/commodity) SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment)

If, we get up over +60 on the MO and  the Dow/major indexes rally – that would be a selling or shorting point.

Since we now have a bullish trend Investors411 is going to adopt a different set of parameters around the MO.  (see earlier Investors411)  Traders instead of waiting for -60 on the MO the area around +20 or the 50 DMA seems to be a support level. Just remember over the last 3 years 3 months is the maximum period the MO has gone without reaching -60.

We can also allow for a little bit more on the upside of the MO (+60)

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Dylan Ratigan

No Brainer TAX

Senators Jim Webb (D) and Barbara Boxer (D) are offering a NO BRAINER tax that many other countries have already enacted.

If your company took over $5 billion of the TARP funds (our tax money) all bonuses over $400,000 would be subject to a 50% tax for the years you held our TARP money. The only reason these companies exist is because of  the TARP bailout, borrowing trillions at @ 0.00% from the FED (means future inflation for you) and have been allowed to drop transparent mark to market accounting.

You’d think a 50% tax on just the bonuses over $400,000 for the top executive would fly through congress like far more stringent taxes have in other countries like Britain. But YOU hear almost nothing about it because of the lobbyists and their tight control over the media. Dylan Ratigan on MSNBC (4:00PM EST) yesterday carried an interview with Senator Webb (D-VA) It seems in their first attempt they could not even get this on the floor of the Senate for a vote.

YOU get the bill and the wealthy that screwed you get the Bonus – Only in America and third world dictatorships does this happen.

Health Care

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

• The Good-The proposed Heath car plan under Obama will cover an additional 31 million Americans. Perhaps we will no longer be #1 on the list of “western” countries in which preventable deaths occur. One Republican’s  plan covers 3 million additional Americans. Its better than zero.
• The Bad – At best long term, the Obama plan may very very slightly limits the 17+% and growing amount of GDP we spend on health care. Obama administration long ago sold out to the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have in the USA.
• The Ugly -  Totally political congress that is only interested in getting elected instead of solutions  and lack of leadership from Obama have prevented real solutions that are working – a public option or universal health care that dozens of other countries have voted to keep for decades.

Yes, we have the best health care system in the world - If youyou’rer a Saudi Prince, uber wealthy foreigner, know someone, or are a wealthy American you actually get to use the best system in the world. Forget it if you’re an average Joe and Jane American.

Whipcongress.com has  kept the drive for a public option alive – 40 Senators have signed on – YOU can help.

Dylan Ratigan

Dylan, used to be the anchor and co creator of CNBC’s “Fast Money” and now has his own show on MSNBC.  He has both financial skills and is unafraid to nail any politician or industry unlike the corporate lapdogs of CNBC. As stated above his show is on at 4:00 PM EST.  One of his recent editorials on Corporate Communism in Heath Care and Banking. is a Must Read.

As Americans, I believe we reject communism because it historically has allowed a tiny group of people to consolidate complete control over national resources (including people), in the process stifling competition, freedom and choice. It leaves its citizens stagnating under the perpetual broken systems with no natural motivation to innovate, improve services or reduce costs.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

A decent rally collapsed into yesterday’s close. We rallied a bit in the last 10 minutes to close in the green. Volume was up & above average. The benchmark S&P 500 came within @ 0.40% of reaching anew 18 month high. The NASDQ and Russell 2000 are already at new highs, but it has NOT been the typical big volume breakout that usually signifies the continuation of a major rally.

US markets need some fundamental push to breakout before the bullish momentum runs out of steam.

• Perhaps good news from weekly jobless claims Thursday.
• Perhaps the increased exports/imports just announced by China will lead markets higher, China is not nearly as close to or at  a new highs like US, Britain and some other countries. Worries over a developing housing/office space glut/bubble are holding back investors.
• Perhaps it will be the financial sector (XLF the ETF) that almost broke out yesterday. – Attempts to regulate this sector are getting weaker.
• Perhaps the Dollar will fall. This would mean the Euro would get stronger.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator dropped a bit to +6o.89 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
• BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule Two days ago the BDI, like stocks, leveled off in front of a strong resistance level. Yesterday it fell.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Mantra – Since the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) is still over +60, or overbought -  Right now,  selling (taking profits) is more desirable than opening new positions because of the short term over bought conditions. Positions:

• 6% EWZ (Brazil)
  
• 5%MOO (agriculture ETF)
• 5%FXI (China)
  
• 3% IMAX – In a HUGE explosion higher right now

All three ETF positions are currently under performing US markets.  They are 5 to 10% from their old highs. Will sell more if NYMO gets above +80. Will nibble on THY & other positions if NYMO falls to @+20

Answer to Monitor’s comment - Congratulations on using  YOUR Stock Picks wisely and making a killing, I know others who have used the list and sent personal emails are also doing well.  See comments section on side of blog.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING