Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Financing Health Care

Poll/chart from Fivethirtyeight

Last week VP Biden announced $155 billion savings in health care with hospitals to help defray the cost of Obama’s heath care plan. This was a giant first step in financing heath care reform. Story here . The $155 billion story was a blip compared to our Michael Jackson/Sarah Palin media obsession.

When has any administration since LBJ come up with $155 billion in health care savings?

Perhaps the best analyzer of polls out there, Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight blog) has come out with a poll showing the way 68% of Americans want to finance health care reform. - Increase taxes on income earners over $250K, Increase alcohol taxes, increase cigarette taxes. See data above and a great analysis of health care reform here

So why isn’t this legislation popular among our Senators and Congressmen? So many are bought and sold by the health care industry.

The latest to get caught in influence peddling was a media outlet the venerable Washington Post. CEO’s and health care officials were among those invited to a sit down with the WaPo and administration officials for $25,000 to $250,000. This meeting blew up when it became public. Story here

If you sit back and do nothing health care costs will continue to rise over 100% a decade.  We will continue be, by far, the most expensive system and 30th to 40th when compared to other nations health care systems on results.

You can either sick your head in the sand, keep getting mesmerized by Michael Jackson/Sarah Palin or do something. Call your Congress person and your Senator. Join a group that promotes reform. I certainly am a critic many of Obama’s decisions, but I’m have no problem in pushing this cause

You can make a difference. But you have to stand and fight . The only way they win is if you do nothin g . Make the call, join the group or donate some $. NOW

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

After falling, as predicted, to the S&P 875 support level, the bulls have reinforced the barricades and held their position for the last two days.  The longer they hold out the stronger the bulls position becomes.

Volume our #1 forecasting tool has been almost totally useless.

Earnings week usually trumps everything else - Perhaps the biggest report is Intel on Tuesday. If the tech giant ‘s forecast is positive we could see a rally continue. Financials are probably going to continue their charmed existence, because the Obama administration has deemed the big ones too big to fail and they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI fell for the 8th day in a row.  However, the rate of decline has slowed dramatically.  This chart works a little different from most other charts in that it is a lot smoother and less volatile. The fact that the decline rate has dramatically narrowed is a positive for bulls

Unfortunately, over the last six weeks we have a series of lower high, lower lows, and a broken support level. That’s positive for bears. Over the last six months we have dramatically risen off the lows – Long term  Positive for bulls

In a nut shell the BDI is

• short term  - seems to be turning bullish (emphasis on seems )
  
• mid term – clear bearish pattern
• long term - bullish pattern
  

$USD - The Dollar is still in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+.

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Fearless Forecast for the Wee k

From Last week – The S&P resistance level (@875 & SPX now at 896 )  should at least get challenged, especially in the beginning of the week. Watch BDI. Forecast – Bears Rule Investors411 shot and scored on last week’s forecast.

This Week’s fearless forecast – Remember this is reading tea leaves. So far investors have not reacted well (buying or pushed stocks higher) to some reasonably good news last week. There is a bias with the bears The bulls support level (SPX @875) gets stronger each day it holds.

The bottom line comes down to the mother of all chip stocks Intel’s  earnings forecast . Financials are going to do well (under the Fed’s Obama administration’s protection) The BDI looks like it may be turning higher. Both bulls and bears have some powerful weapons right now as stated above.

So when it come down to "there is no clear direction " you manage risk. If support levels fall for the bulls there is a big chance for a big fall. Good news has not pushed markets higher in the last week, so it looks like there will be no huge rally.

Often the bottom line is "Don’t loose money." – So Investors411 is just going to hold tight. We’ve sold a lot of positions recently and will have to play this day by day. If Intel rallies Investors411 will add to portfolio. Also a buy the dip opportunity may arise.

Fearless Forecast – So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

140+ Dead in Demonstrations in China

You’ll here a lot more about Iran, but the Muslim minority has demonstrated or rioted (depends on which side your on as to which term is correct) in a far western Chinese Provence. The BBC headline story here

China owns a huge part of our debt and we need her cheaper goods. Will condemnation here be as great as Iran or hypocritically silent?

Biden – We “Misread”  Problems

Photos – Huffington post

Since last fall Investors411 has continuously repeated “The problem in the financial sector is far far far far far bigger than fist imagined. Impact of this mess is going to take years to resolve.” See positions section of blog.

Investors411 continually cited a significant group of economic thinkers who clearly demonstrated just how bad the economic problem was. Investors411 also criticized Larry Summers and the economic crew of the Obama administration.

The only good news is they finally woke up and smelled the coffee . Tax cuts good, Stimulus plan good but way too back ended (only 10% spent so far) The same problems that led to the financial meltdown are still out there. Yes, we’ve moved back from the edge of the cliff and everyone starting with Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner do deserve some credit by throwing the car they were driving into reverse as we approached the cliff.

However Greenspan, expanding deficits, wars, housing and unregulated capitalism have created a massive economic black hole. Short term stimulus usually worked as a solution in the past. The problem here, besides the holes massive depth, is the accumulated debt was already humongous. Biden’s admonition of misreading economic crisis here

For in depth previous prediction and solutions see Overview section of blog.

Iran (Week 4)

Huffington Post’s Nico Pitney’s daily blogging on events here

There has been one group of cleric’s come out in support of demonstrators and he wonders what’s happened to the head religious leader in Iraq – Sistani. He supported democracy for Iraq, but has remained silent on Iran

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 (see results at 6/25-scrolldown)

Technicals and Fundamentals

A huge price decline, but again in weak declining volume Friday. How markets react to news is just behind Volume as a prediction tool. In this case it was the Unemployment figures that sparked the fall are lagging indicators.  Therefore, the huge downside reaction is way more than expected = Bearish.

The lack of volume still troubling factor. – One things for sure-money on the sidelines is staying here. Its hard to make a long term forecast with volume as a confirming factor. Weakly forecast below.

Earnings season begins next week. Historically, this week companies that are not going to do well warn – this is bearish

Oil futures are way down this AM trading at $63.88 at 7:15 EST. = Bearish

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

These are important forecasting tolls, but secondary to volume .

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI fell sharply Friday.  This index is winding up like a spring, within a consolidation pattern and is close to a downside breakout (3452 is breakdown point and index closed at 3529)  See chart  Watch out! Long term Bullish rise from bottom, but coiling right now for next move . Potential bearish breakdown possible this week

$USD - The Dollar rose 0.74 % . The strong inverse correlation between the dollar and stocks has existed for many moons. Market. Dollar up = markets down. That’s just what happened Friday Long term Bearish pattern for Dollar that is consolidating pattern now (neutral) = Bullish for stocks

Fearless Weekly Forecast – Last week Broke Investors411 winning streak of forecasts for the week  as US markets fell on some bad consumers confidence and unemployment data. Momentum is with the Bears as we enter earning season. Check out all the red bearish signs above.

The S&P resistance level (@875 & SPX now at 896 )  should at least get challenged, especially in the beginning of the week. Watch BDI. Forecast – Bears Rule

Back to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH outlook. This is in anticipation of a further breakdown of the BDI and S&P 500.

NB – Volume has confirmed nothing. So confidence in above predictions is a bit shaky.

Our Positions . -  China, Brazil, & India (FXI, IFN & EWZ )(Partial list)

Unlike the USA that has seen two economic bubbles burst housing and financials these growing countries have been relatively less impacted. The decline in trade with US is going to impact all 3.  China and India have positive GDP’s predicted for the year and resource rich Brazil’s GDP is predicted to be close to zero. The World Bank predictes a -2.9% loss of GDP for the rest of the world..predicts a-2.9% loss of GDP for the rest of the world.. For more see Positions section of Investors 411.

Recommendations – Investors has a very big position FXI a very small position in IFN , and a closed position in EWZ .  Again see Positions section of blog. Short term traders might want to take some profits in FIX and both traders and investors  should look at possible “buy the dips” opportunities that should emerge this week or next in IFN & EWZ .

More tomorrow

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING