*******************

.

STOCKS

.

Trends/Headlines

.

.

Oil

.

• OIl prices take Center stage center stage. Clear 10% meltdown in oil prices has already forced a downgrade in 411′s long term outlook. (See Monday’s blog)

• For more on inter market analysis & 3D trading see the STRATEGY Section of blog (Scroll down)

.

The Canary in a Coal Mine

is Back

.

.

• Spanish 10 year Bond Rates [411 uses this as a critical measurement of European/world stock market stability] are remaining relatively stabile considering the news. Yield up ABOVE the 6.00% Danger zone –  At 6.03% (7:30 EDT)

• Canary is starting to look sick.

• Now, a A double whammy. – Oil and Spanish bonds.

• McCellan Oscillator [411 very successful technical tool in market direction - Tops/bottoms] fell to -27.37 Range for last 6 months is -100 to +60.  MO in middle of range so lots of room for MO to move up or DOWN =  NEUTRAL

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

..

From Friday – “Major Question remains

Can the US market Rally despite the problems

in just about every other major world market?”

.

Answer in US stock market today

will probably be NO“

.

.

The Cavalry/Fed/Central Banks

.

Earnings season was the the major event holding up stocks. This has passed.

Oil prices were the first warning, now Spanish bonds. If the 10 year Spanish bond prices continue to move higher - Look out below.

.

The only foreseeable entities

capable of halting another

spring/summer

slide are Central Banks

.

.

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke

Famous/Infamous

Helicopter Ben Image

.

What stocks need in the USA & Europe is another liquidity dump because of the growing recession in Europe. The longer they wait the worse the situation becomes.

Unfortunately 411 has no insider to tell us when the Central Banks will move. But the recent anti austerity reversals in Europe means it will probably take a while before leaders get on the same page.

All long stock positions

now have

greater downside risk

.

The Income Inequality Map

.

.

Income Inequality by

Country

.

LINK to Definition Of Gini Coefficient

.

2009 Income Distribution Map

(From Wikipedia link above)

.

.

—————–

.

As the

“Yes We Can America”

devolves into the

“No We Won’t American”

Plutocracy

.

Consider this

..

.

Compare the top 1%

with the bottom 90%

in wealth distributions

.

• Other democracies less than 90%

• USA – Top 1%   @90% of the wealth

• Mexico - Top 1%  @92% of the wealth

• North Korea – Top 1%  @98% of the wealth

.

Do we strive to be like

Mexico and North Korea

or other Democracies?

.

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.

STOCKS

.

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

Headline

“How Sweet It Is”

.

.

• How Sweet is (Marc Favor CNBC) to hear about another $1.3 trillion in liquidity (printed $) being pumped into US & European Economies.

• From yesterday – “For short term traders – The first day (or 2) of a new quarter has not always been kind to momentum stocks. However, always remember, the Central Banks have the trump card.” Central Banks played A Big Trump card yesterday (see link above)

• No significant changes from our technical indicators yesterday. Use yesterday’s blog if you’d like an update.

• The mother of all stocks AAPL exploded 3.18% higher off its dip

Therefore Still a Long Term Bullish Bias

.

.

Want To Live

.

Go To Denmark

.

Denmark and almost every other Western Democracy has

more upward mobility than the USA.

Even the Latest Republican presidential star Rick Santorum  agrees

See Jason DeParle front page NYT article

WHY?

.

Income Inequality

How Income Inequality Harms Societies

Click on Photo for Video

.

.

Dr Richard Wilkinson presents what is perhaps the best TED presentation of 2011, You all know the Truth of what Wilkinson is saying…

“Income inequality is divisive and socially corrosive, its been around since the French Revolution…What’s changed is that we can now look at the data and see what that inequality does.”

Using UN and World Bank data Wilkinson starts out comparing gross national per capita income of 20+ market democracies – Gross income has no or little relationship to the well being  of countries (the USA is at the top in income)

But when Income Inequality between countries and within  countries is measured,  well being has a massive correlation on the following categories (the USA is at or near the bottom in every category)

• Life Expectancy
• Trust
• Math and Literacy
• Infant Mortality
• Homicides
• Imprisonments
• Teenage Births
• Obesity
• Mental Illness
• Drug Addiction
• Alcohol addiction
• High School Drop out Rate
• Child Well Being
• Education Scores
• and of course Social Mobility

You can view an entire list of the data and charts in a couple minutes HERE

.

Rich Developing Societies have reached

A Turning Point in History

.

“Politics should be about social relationships and how we develop and sustain societies”

Bottom Line – Wilkinson genius – The measurement with hard economic data of what gets worse in countries and societies when the rich and poor move too far apart.

.

********************

.

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

• The correlation between Europe and the USA is wakening, but still significant. The Bulls are gaining more control in the USA

• Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +41.14 . 50DMA at +2.02 A wee bit of bearishness, but still room for rally to grow (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) = NEUTRAL/bearish

• The potential for war between the USA/Israel and Iran has consequences. Investors/traders should be long Oil.

• USO, UCO or Oil related stocks (See YSL 2012) Buy the first dip. (2 to 5%)

• My single largest holding remains EUO (double short the Euro) This is because it sure looks like the Euro will continue to be devalued.

• Over weekend I will try to update Positions section of blog to reflect changes made this week and 2012 outlook.

For those who have an options expiration on the 21st.

Remember if you are out of the money the option will degrade even faster the closer you come to the 21st. (12 days)

MOS has traded between 44.7 and 55 over the last 12 days. If your Call/Put was placed at 52.5 you need about a 4% move either way to make a profit. One item in your favor is that we are entering earnings season next week and things almost always become more volatile.

As stated in the comments section lots of yesterdays rally was short covering and not fundamentally based.

Odds are you will see a 4%+ move above or below 52.5 in the next 12 days, but the trade is no longer based on the earnings report. MOS is currently at 53.50. Technically, because it gave up 1/2 its gains yesterday its outlook for today is a wee bit bearish. But that’s just for today.

All – Also remember you can sell the Put side too if its value is more than the commission.  Example MOS goes up and you sell your call next Wednesday when MOS is 54.5 You make (guess) 30%  By Friday  MOS has lost 5% of its value and each Put is then worth (guess) $30.

MOS could also shoot up to the moon. MOS is up a bit in pre market trading.

.

Financial Amnesia

.

Old FT Front Page

Since the Editorial boards of the vast majority of US financial journals have yielded to their advertisers or the corporate oligarchy, few papers/jorunals stand out.

One is the Financial Times.

This AM the FTimes is running a story accusing   Wall Street of  “collective amnesia” Investors411 readers know that this collective amnesia is purposeful and enacted so profit can be further privatized and the conseuences (risk) can be further socialized.

“Financial amnesia disarms individuals, the market and the regulator,” … “It causes risk to be mispriced, bubbles to develop and crises to break.”

.

****************

.

Politicizing Science

Michael Mann

We have had an all out attack on science that perhaps stated with trying to prove Cancer had no relationship to cigarette smoking.  They were, for the most part unsuccessful then, but that was decades ago.

Now, Cherry picking data and using a massive political and media machine a corporate oligarchy tries convince an American public that the opposite of science fact is true.

Michael Mann in a TED/PSU lecture/video clearly proves how its done over climate change.

The same kind of McCarthyism is happening in the USA with everything from climate change to evolution to financial meltdown

Quite simply

Ethics and morality are being assaulted by

GREED

.

*********************

.

The Dark Side

Ron Paul

&

Mitt Romney

Last week Investors411 went over the bright side of Ron Paul. This short video shows the dark side.  The new Iowa front runner proclaims 15 things that are “unconstitutional”

Here’s a sample from Right Wing New’s John Hawkins on the national Republican front runner  “Why Mitt is unelectable.”

.

********************

.

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

Last Night’s

Republican Debate

When the moderators of the debate Point blank call you “dangerous,” “outrageous,” and “totally irresponsible” you know the deck is stacked against you.  This is the kind of debate run last night by Fox News.  Their target was Newt Gingrich.

Fox News, Washington lobbyists and the Carl Rove Republican establishment have already crowned Mitt Romney as their man. The deck is stacked.

Needless to say there was virtually nothing substantive in the debate about how to prevent Europe’s collapse, the job crisis or a host of other major issues.

As whacky as these debates are, $$$$ wins in politics. Between now and the first  vote in Iowa an avalanche of negative adds from PAC’s from the wealthy oligarchy will determine the outcome. Everyone says they HATE negative adds, but the simple fact is they work.  Romney’s PACs have the money to club any serious Republican opponent.

Romney nor any of his Son’s have ever served in the military

Has Romney Gone Rabid?

What should frighten you about Romney is far more than his promise to take China to the world court on day 1 in office – thereby starting the same kind of trade war that sunk us into Great Depression.

Romney wants to go beyond the Bush/Cheney just use brute force

“us vs. them” foreign policy.

Quote from Andrew Sullivan at 10:12 PM of the Republican Debate

“Again, Romney accuses the president of treason, saying he backs Chinese power over American. Romney wants a doubling of warships and 100,000 new troops. How to pay for that? No answer.

But what’s notable about Romney is his resolute intention to play the treason card.”

______________

By far my favorite in the Republican debates has been Jon Huntsman who has a plan to end to big to fail shadow banks.

Huntsman, last night admitted illegal immigration levels were the lowest they’ve been in 40 years. There is a  also huge gap between his and Romney’s extremest views on immigration.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

• The other inter market technical analysis that is relevant now is Europe

• Oil prices plummeting is a very significant problem because this is probably related to global growth.  Two biggest emerging markets - India did rally off its low for the year yesterday & China while better off, is dropping and 3% away from a major support level.

Europe has flattened, but oil is flashing a major bearish signal.

Get Money Out

Get the money out of politics. YOU can make a difference.

You can continue to be sheeple or perhaps take that first step

All you have to do is sign the petition then pass it on to your friends.

If you don’t fight for your democracy who will?

• Obama’s biggest contributor (bundled) was Goldman Sachs
• Romney’s biggest contributors are from Wall Street.
• Chairmanships of congressional comittees are now decided on who gets the most contibutions from the sector they govern. (Example Banking comittee – the poll who got the most $ from banksters gets to be chairman)

Want to know more LINK

Last Blog for Week

Back Monday

__________________

Stocks

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

The below Chart is from ETF Digest’s David Fry. David shares the same cynical opinion that Investors411 has on High Frequency Trading (HTF’s) that dominate stock trading.

His Chart shows what happened to US equities (specifically the influence of HTF’s who are “in charge”)

• Long Term Stock Trend - The benchmark S&P 500 (see chart on right side of blog) has spent the entire months of August and September trading below the 50 & 200 day price moving average (red and blue lines on chart) – Any credible analyst will tell you that’s a bearish sign.

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

The McClellan Oscillator

__________________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

Short Term Outlook

days, week+

• Both Forecasting tools have shifted to Neutral.  But HFT dominated markets have built up some major momentum  - So chances are we’ll keep moving higher till overbought indicators start flashing a turn around.

• Financials (ETF = XLF) are the sector to watch. Long term their chart is bearish, like the S&P 500. Shorter term there is a series of lower highs and lows on the chart = bearish. No market rally can sustain itself without this group.

• Bottom Line for rest of week – Bulls still have the momentum, till the MO and PCR reach overbought levels.

_________________________

Demystifying and Discussing

Simple Option Strategies

by JS

PUTS

(Note:  I volunteered for this column when I saw no one else did, and I had years of experience using calls, especially for increasing income on stocks I own.  However I’ve limited experience in using puts, but I can see ways they are very useful.) [Mucho Thanks from all of us - editor]

Put options are a way to force someone (the person who sold you the put) to buy the stock at a fixed price, no matter how much lower the price of the stock currently is.

Note: you don’t actually sell it to someone personally; it’s like buying or selling stock. When you sell, someone invisible  (or an institution) is at the other side, buying it.

Using put options

Puts protect you from indecision and accidents.  Example: if you own CROX and want to protect profits, or you just bought it and want to limit your loss in this volatile market, this put can do it.

-CROX111022P27 (Oct 22, 2011, strike price of 27).   Friday CROX closed at $27.58.  If you paid $27.58 and you bought this put at the same time, this is how you stand:

• Sock price ………………..$27.58
• Put price …………………..$ 1.95
• Cost……………………… …$29.53

If CROX drops, your loss is limited to $29.53 -$27.00 (strike price of put) or $2.53, a little less than 10%.  But the beauty of this is that if it drops, you can still hold CROX till Oct 21 before you “put” it  at $27. It could go down to 20 in a bad day, but you can keep holding it in case it rebounds, and in this market, it very well can. If it goes up past $29.53, you are into profit. In this market, if CROX is a good pick, it could go much higher.

The negative: no profit till $29.53.  The positive: you limit your loss to 10%. If you bought CROX at a much lower price, you’ve also protected your profits.

Put option: negative: increases cost of stock. Positive: real protection till Oct 22. And you can hold stock in case it recovers quickly and reaches profit level.

Please note:  The title of this column is “Demystifying and DISCUSSING Simple Option Strategies”.  It is very helpful to readers of Investors411 if some of you who use options, post some comments.

_____________________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

NLY - Will buy back into  this high dividend stock on Dip. The date you have to hold the stock comes up on Wednesday. Since the 1/4ly dividend is usually between 3 and 4% the stock often goes down close to that amount after this date. Everyone expects this so Put’s offer little protection for this incident.

GLD - From Two days ago – (Investors411 did not make this trade) Traders who can handle the risk – a third gap down at open and another  significant fall should bring us to longer term support levels. GLD is at very oversold levels. This risk on trade worked like a charm. Investors411 on trades takes 1/2 off the table after +5% and sets a stop loss at the price the stock/ETF (GLD)was bought for. Let the rest ride. Kudos for whose who made $$$

Traders - The risk on trade has worked and now watch for overbought signs (MO & PCR) as an exit and a reversal of the trend.

Investors - This is a crowded trade, but I think it’s a winner.  Short financials and long small caps or technology. There will be a slightly different price at the open.

• Short Financials – Investors411 will use ultra short SKF (closed at 78.91)
• Long technology - Investors411 will use ultra long QQQ (tech’s) QLD (closed at 81.13)
• It helps that the prices re almost equal.
• Of course, those who know how to use puts (on financials) and calls (on technology) – this is another way to go.

Exit strategy – I do hope to hold this into the end of the year, but will exit  if it looses over 7% and take some profits after +5%.

Disclaimer - I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.

_________________________

Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

So, you going to ignore him?

Tax and Spending

Since Obama and the Republicans answer to the shadow bank, military/industrial and other business cartels in Washington it is important to get get a more unbiased point of view on the budget. Here’s one from today’s NYT. Tax and Spending Myth and Realities A must read since  the cartels dominate the flow of information.

Military/Industrial Cartel

Just how powerful and dominate is this cartel? Their budget has gone up a staggering 81% in the last ten years.  Nothing comes close to creating debt like the military budget yet they are so powerful a cartel that neither Obama, the Republicans or the media address the problem in a substantive way.

The $700 billion yearly usually used as an approximation of the  defense department’s budget is as phoney as a three dollar bill.

• Foreign wars (Iraq, Afghanistan) are treated as supplemental budget items and not included
• Veterans affairs are not counting in this budget, yet this is closing in on 8.5% of total budget.
• Homeland Security (almost 3%) is not part of this budget and so are other smaller related military expenditures.
• Since programs like Social Security are paid for with their own tax or fees and are currently in the black they are not part of the growing federal deficit.  If you eliminate these programs as debt contributors, the military budget alone wind up contributing over 50% of the growing national debt. Some put this figure much higher

So if we take the $1,000,000,000,000+ military budget and increase it by 81% growth over the next 10 years you come up with a $4 to $6 trillion dollar increase over the next ten years that almost every politician in the USA ignores.

You’ve seen Republican’s ignore the King Kong of deficit creators in the Room (far bigger than the 800 lbs. gorilla) and today you will see Obama in a speech to the nation virtually ignore it.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more. Remember Fed liquidity (POMO, QE 2 or quantitative easing) announced ending is June 30th.

• This is different. What has been a 3/4 day market correction has happened in light volume. Used to be we rallied in light volume and sold off in heavy volume.
• The dollar , oil and MO have fallen significantly and the likelihood of at least a technical rebound is growing (see below)
• Republicans seem to want to play politics with the Debt Ceiling. This could have a significant negative impact on stocks. More on this in later Investors411. Surprised the Wall Street part of the Republican party seems to be caving into the Tea Party wing on this.
• The key to US equities remains how accommodative the Fed can be. If it is limited by the debt ceiling or something else – watch out below. Everything will suffer.
• Fed announces POMO schedule though May 14. $80 billion, plus a second program of $17 billion. Can’t help but wonder if this second program will continue beyond the supposed end June 30th. Analysts very divided on a QE #3(more quantitative easing after June 30th)

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   Dollar fell moderately yesterday -0.23%.  The trend since start of year is bearish with lower highs and lower lows on chart, We are at a lower low.  For stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -51.72. Almost oversold. = Neutral/Bullish

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

From yesterday – “Looks like we are in for a correction. The dip last month took the MO down to -85 (see link to chart above)” and in past has gone as low as -135.MO at -51.72 now

Bottom Line  Till it Breaks Down – No Black Swan events have been able to seriously impact the Fed liquidity driven equity market. So we are nearing a buy the dip territory.

The dollar at a low, oil prices plummeting last 2 days, and the MO nearing oversold levels shows we are ready for a rebound. If oil , the dollar & stocks continue to fall I will buy the dip. The further the better. This may only be a short term play (day, days, a week, or more).

Debt ceiling Republican soap opera politics in Washington could really hurt stocks. Question becomes will US default? Investors hate uncertainty and this is yet another bond holder to get out of treasuries.

This could kill the duration of the expected rally higher.

What to watch today – For shorter term traders Market movers.

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down – Big hit in last two days – for stocks – Bullish
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks. Now bullish
• AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows. AAPL rebounded yesterday. Perhaps the start of a rebound rally? Still, overall = Bearish
• Japan Rector Developments - This keeps getting worse.
• EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting  way over extended and now correcting.

.

___________________

Positions

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

All About Oil

This editorial by John W Schoen does a good job explaining why oil prices are so high. Plus the difference between the limited supply of cheap oil and the far more expensive shale oil.

He ends his piece with an illuminating point.

Europe and Japan have a much higher tax on gasoline. This economically forces people  to use and find alternative fuels. When there are sharp price hikes these governments can lower the taxes to soften the blow. This is a major reason why so many other countries are so further along in seeking alternate energy solutions than the USA.

Four outstanding blogs go into depth on on energy related subjects

• The Oil Drum
• Peak Oil
• Tree Hugger
• Oil Traders Blog (For investors)

_____________

.

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Same old manipulated by the Fed’s dump of liquidity, low volume stock rally that we have seen for the last few years.
• From Seeking Alpha an editorial on commodities
• Here’s a contrarian economist on what happens to stocks and the economy when the Fed’s QE2 stops on June 30th.

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose for the third day in a row. Up +0.40% yesterday. Chart for last three weeks still clearly bearish for dollar.   Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index and its trumping the dollar see below) For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -1.86. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level.  This narrow range is something I have never seen before. MO Stocks outlook = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

From Yesterday – Today’s the big day - For three months the bulls have built a strong support level at -30 on the MO. Each time it has been approached it has held. We are just 2 points away. The bears have a big battering ram - oil prices over $100+ for an extended period of time.

The support level held – The bears, as they have been for the last three months, were defeated.

As Chris states in the comments section of the blog the “MO at -30 works like magic” For three months the -30 level has been a buy signal.

No fundamental factor can seem to overcome the -30 level. Stocks can only become so oversold then the buyers step in.

• Tunis & Egypt revolution – No problems
• 100+ dollar oil – No problems
• Libya – No problems
• Other possible and simmering outbreaks in oil rich dictatorships – No problems

What’s holding up the bulls is the Fed’s market manipulation – O% interest rates to the TBTF & other shadow banks and quantitative easing.   This is all one big economic bubble building.

The problem for the bulls is that they can not break the bears resistance level at +30. This gives stocks a very small range on the MO to trade in – 60 points over the last three months. The range for the last three years and beyond had been over 200 points.

Why? - Best read of the tea leaves is all but the strongest holders have been chased out of the US stock market over the last few years. Every time stocks are threatened the Fed’s liquidity tsunami takes over. Our managed stock market  is bought when it starts to fall by the manipulators or money printers.

Bottom Line – Stocks have moved into a smaller trading range.

Special Note - Considering changing the Long Term Outlook to NEUTRAL at long as oil prices keep rising above $100+

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Clear 2 month pattern of bears ruling Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Took a hit yesterday as it approached former high.

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Positions

A 5% trailing stop today on both REMX & RJA today.

5% trailing stop on UCO  today.

One strategy of Investors411 is to take 5+% profits on 1/2 the position and let the rest ride.

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

This market is excellent for short term stock players

Buy when MO approaches -30 and Sell when it approaches  +30

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver SLV and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high and has started to pull back. Buy the dip to 17 DMA of SLV or DGP

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

Mea Culpa - In hindsight – It was unfortunate that the UWM positions trailing 5% stop was hit.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.“

Special Note - Considering changing the Long Term Outlook to NEUTRAL -if oil prices remain above $100+ a barrel for a significant amount of time and/or keep rising.

Our Manipulated “Free” Press

Every bankster in the USA has one “Get out of Jail Free” card courtesy of the politicians in the Federal government, their close symbiotic relationship with the agencies that are supposed to regulate them and a press that rolls over in adoration when they interview a them.

Yesterday Britain’s top banker echoed the cry that those that had benefited so greatly and cause so much economic devastation should be held accountable.

Today Al Jazeera (another outside the USA media outlet) runs the Feature Editorial entitled Will the Banksters Get Away With It? In it author Danny Schechter offers ten reasons why Wall Street ‘criminals’ get ‘bail-outs and not ‘jail-outs’ or never get punished.

Is Matt Taibbi or the issues that so many brought up about “banksters  and the privileged class  getting big coverage on network news or right wing outlets – NO

Remember Climategate?

Some stolen emails from just one university that did research into climate change supposedly proved global warming was a hoax. Now this got big coverage.

Since then, not one, not two not three, not for, but five independent studies have proved that their was “no credible evidence”

However, the climategate story befits the privileged classes who would NOT profit from cleaning up pollution.  The media and politicians promoted climategate with a avalanche of media reports. Yet almost nothing on climategate itself being a proven hoax.

This is the reality of what passes for news in the USA – A get out of jail free card if you are in the privileged elite and media a media drowning if you dare stand up against them.

Climategate, birtherism, unions blamed for everything, death panels, – you name it. It all passes for news

David Roberts concludes in What We Haven’t Leaned from Climategate

“U.S. politics now contains a large, well-funded, tightly networked, and highly amplified tribe that defines itself through rejection of “lamestream” truth claims and standards of evidence.”…hyped relentlessly by right-wing media, bullied into the mainstream press as he-said she-said, and later, long after the damage is done, revealed as utterly bereft of substance. It’s a familiar script“

So its little wonder that trillions stolen, lost, and looted by banksters gets no attention and phony controversies are hyped over and over again in the US media do.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• The same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building trading pattern of small gains in small volume was back after taking a body blow the day before
• The impact of higher oil prices around the world has become a threat to globalized growth and US markets have not yet decided the impact higher oil prices
• Oil prices exploded  again to over $100 dollars a barrel. The highest price since Sept. 2008
• Yesterdays a confirmed the breakout in oil. Prices above $100 will have a bigger impact on emerging markets than the USA. So the longer prices stay high the worse it is for the economy.
• Stocks, can of course, can still be manipulated higher by the Fed’s quantitative easing.
• An independent ADP jobs report gave a surprisingly good number for last month +214,000. In a manipulated market good job news means less likelihood of Fed manipulation in the long term. So news is mixed for stocks.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell a significant 0.49%  yesterday . Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index (see below) For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to -5,52. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. MO Stocks outlook = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Yesterday – “A Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger moment is here.  The potential for a quantum shift in the outlook of the US and more importantly the world economic picture is upon us because of higher energy prices.”

Sustained higher oil prices will shave GDP growth is emerging markets faster than more established markets like the USA. But both will feel the pain if prices remain high.

At some point even a manipulated US market, is going to start to feel the impact of higher oil. Today? Tomorrow? Next week? Next month? or down the road.

The dollar is falling and this does give bring up two important points.

• Dollar goes down and profits for US globalized companies go up.
• We are experience a MAJOR crisis and investors are NOT buying the dollar for protection.

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Bounced off its 50 DMA support level. As long as it hangs in above that everything OK

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Positions

Another 3% trailing stop today on both REMX & RJA today.

Will sell 1/2 of UCO if profits exceed 5%. 5% trailing stop on UCO.

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Buy the dip. Why not, its a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  Hopefully longer term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high. Buy now or on small dip.

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals – Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs. Buy the dip.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

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Tax Options Impact

The WA PO has created a terrific interactive chart (bigger/clearer picture here) from (non partisan) Tax Policy Center, Joint Committee on Taxation, Office of Management and Budget.  They offer 3 options on Bush tax cuts.

Hopefully, in he Obama plan the $3,000,000,000,000 saved will go to deficit reduction over the next 10 years. I favor this right now, but another worldwide economic meltdown, 9/11 event, or other unforeseen disaster could change this.

Get Educated then Educate your friends - This is a great informational chart to post on your facebook page, send to friends , etc. Everyone can draw their own conclusions.

Hopefully, in he Obama plan the $3,000,000,000,000 saved will go to deficit reduction.

Note – The default is set to plan #1 – “Let the Bush Tax cuts expire” creates $3.7 trillion for government. Click on options to compare.

Blogo del Narco

People in Mexico are so terrorized by the drug cartels that few news sources dare print what’s happening for fear of reprisals. Blogo del Narco is the exception. (At top left there is a marker that will translate to English)

Reality is right (because of our huge # of drug addicts) now anyone in continental USA is far more likely to die from something related to Mexican drug terrorism than something related to a Moslem Jihadist terrorist.

A Mexican computer student is risking his life documenting drug terrorism in Mexico. I hope you check out and support his site.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Paul R in the comments section has found a great source describing the BB/HFT traders and consequences of what they do.

Very weak volume & markets go nowhere. Today the FED injects more cash (see yesterday for explanation) and weak volume give BB/HFT’s more control.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD)  [Anything price move over +/- 0.50 is significant] The dollar was flat 0.00% yesterday. For stocks. A little more often than not flat trading indicates a reversal. = Neutral
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade/proxie for China & emerging markets] Rally +1.71%yesterday. Has broken up through 50 day moving average. Overall trend still = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +7.89 = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

Another day that the FED is injecting liquidity in their Permanent Open Market Operation.  From yesterday – 8/19,24,26 & 9/1 So the major players are going to have some cash in hand to play with today.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - EWZ & EWS

Investors411 has just revised the entire POSITIONS section – You can click on the word POSITIONS at top of blog or LINK here Most revised is the ETF section.

Many foreign ETF’s are again technically outperforming major US indexes. I’ve listed a dozen.

Two New Listings in Position Section

USO (oil commodity ETF) & UCO (2x crude oil ETF)  The later is obviously more volatile. Both these have dipped and Investors411 is opening a position is USO & perhaps USC (the bigger the dip in oil prices the better UCO seems)

Reasoning – Investors, long term emerging markets are going to need more energy. The second reason is if the USA or Israel bombs Iran. Intrade puts possibility at bid 22.9% & ask at 25.6% this AM before 1/1/12 – also see last Monday’s update. In effect, this is a hedge, against something blocking oil supplies.

Downside – going into winter usually oil prices move lower and possible world wide recession.

Technicals USO - Higher highs over last 3 months and hopefully right now we are at a higher low.

Like EWS & EWZ starting with 4% of portfolio position.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!