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Planned Parenthood

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Susan G. Komen, a previously non political cancer organization, has stopped funding Planned Parenthood who gave mammograms to over 4,000,000, mostly low income,  Americans over the last 5 year.

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This has sparked a firestorm throughout the country.

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• Top Komen officials are resigning.

• Hundreds of thousands are directly protesting

• NYC’s Mayor Bloomberg has just given Planed Parenthood a $250,000 contribution

.,,

What you can do to help

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My wife was one of the first 10,000 to sign onto

this petition

protesting SGK actions.

The petition now (8:00AM) has 314,127 signatures. (I’ve also been one of the thousands protesting directly on their facebook page)

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Join Us

If charity’s become political then there if little hope left for a divided America. SGC president said they cancelled PP because they were “under investigation” (by a Republican member of Congress)

• McCathyism was an ugly period in America when if you were simply investigated you were black listed.

• Penn Sate is under investigation by members of congress should they loose their SGC funding?

• Innocent until proven guilty used to mean something in America.

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It’s your world –

If you act like sheep you will

get fleeced.

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STOCKS

• Both the NASDQ (tech) and Russell 2000 (small caps) are outperforming the S&P 500. It’s been this way since the October lows.

• When techs and small cap lead for this long it’s usually a sign of a bull market

• From Seeking Alpha – 6:00 AM Overseas: Japan -0.5%. Hong Kong+0.1%. China +0.8%. India +1.0%. London+0.5%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.4%.

• Mantra – “Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.”

• More and more it’s beginning to look like last year was the year of dividend stocks. This year higher growth stocks are starting to outperform.

• Beaten up sectors are rebounding.  Tech, small cap, and momentum stocks are leading the way.

• Check out the comment section of the blog. Paul has a lot of experience in the sectors that are leading the market. Many others offer credible concepts on long and short term investments in Investors411 comment section.

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Bulls Stampede

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Why 2012 will start with a stampede

(see stocks below)

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A New Years Resolution

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The Single Best Thing You Can Do for Your Health

A Video

23 /12 hrs by Dr Mike Evans

Thanks to HG for heads up on this

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Best Chart of the Year

How The Deficit Got Big

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Link to full article by Teresa Tritch in NYT

What’s also important, but not evident, on this chart is that Obama’s major expenses were temporary — the stimulus is over now — while Bush’s were, effectively, recurring.

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull with OWS Symbol

• European Markets were open yesterday and Germany – The DAX – rose +3% This AM it gapped 1% higher at open

• For shorter Term Traders here’s the  two indexes to watch. Listed in order of importance. (unless the Italian 10 year explodes over 7%)

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Happy New Year &

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Fireworks over 2011 Stock Results

Dividend Stocks up 19% YTD

Over the next few trading days Investors411 will go over the stock results for 2011, which again beat the S&P 500.

Today - Dividend Stocks

Lots more information on the Positions page (section 2A)

Early this year Investors411 started putting together its Recommended Dividend Portfolio. The last Part “below 4% growth” was finished 7/3.

These results are for the year (one day short) – simply because it was very easy to get results for the year. During the same period the benchmark S&P results were about even (depending on today)

The 6 month result, of course, are probably  about  50% lower, but the S&P benchmark was also down about -6% since early July.  Each ticker symbol is linked to a 6 month chart so you can check out those results too.

Guesstimate is that its around +8 0r 9% vs. -6% for S&P for those 6 months.

Many of members on the mail list and frequent commenters made $$$ using the dividend list.

• The Dividend List was by far the most talked about and worked on part of Investors411 Longer Term Portfolio.
• Your Stock List was our most talked about and worked on Shorter Term Portfolio.

Here’s the List of Investors411

Recommended Dividend  Stocks

• Ticker symbols link to charts.
• First number is the yearly dividend,
• Second is the stock price (rise or fall)
• Third bolded number is the combination of the two.

• KMP 6.11%   +19.29% = +25.39%
• T 5.50% –  +2.84 = +8.34%
• WIN 7.42%  – 16.83 = -9.41%
• SNH 6.63%   +4.01 = +10.63%
• DUK 5.24% +23.61 = +28.85%
• D 4.09%  +28.21 = +32.29%
• PGN 5.27% +28.21 = +33.48%
• HCN 5.58%  +13.65 = +19.44%
• MO 5.64%  +20.80  = +26.44
• HTD 5+%  +16.80 = +21.80+
• BMO 4.48%  -5.97 = -1.49
• ABV 4.58%  +18.75 = +23.33

Below 4% but with price growth potential

• CVX 3.03% +16.20 = +19.23%
• MCD 3.10   +30.29 = +33.39%
• PM 3.73%  +34.14 = +37.87%
• GIS 2.90%  +14.70 = +17.60%

Ultra High dividend

• NLY 13.5%  -9.70 =  +3.85
• AGNC 19.0%  -1.90 =  +17.01

Investors411 will continue with this diversified group of dividend stocks into 2012. Dividend stocks and Bonds outperformed the S&P in 2011 and will continue to do so unless we enter a strong bull.

Why dividend Stocks & Bonds beat the S&P

People looked at the low treasury rate, had fear of volatility in stocks with QE 2 ending and thought why not hold a stock/bond that produces a dividend higher than inflation or treasuries.

As long as treasuries, inflation stay low Dividend stocks will produce. Our Fed has promised low rates for 2012 and introduced operation twist, so Dividend stock should continue to do well.

To come – More Investors411 Model portfolio results –  Conservative (dividend ETF’s), Moderate, Aggressive and Your Stock List results. You can get an advanced look by going to POSITIONS Section of blog.

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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Financial Amnesia

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Old FT Front Page

Since the Editorial boards of the vast majority of US financial journals have yielded to their advertisers or the corporate oligarchy, few papers/jorunals stand out.

One is the Financial Times.

This AM the FTimes is running a story accusing   Wall Street of  “collective amnesia” Investors411 readers know that this collective amnesia is purposeful and enacted so profit can be further privatized and the conseuences (risk) can be further socialized.

“Financial amnesia disarms individuals, the market and the regulator,” … “It causes risk to be mispriced, bubbles to develop and crises to break.”

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Politicizing Science

Michael Mann

We have had an all out attack on science that perhaps stated with trying to prove Cancer had no relationship to cigarette smoking.  They were, for the most part unsuccessful then, but that was decades ago.

Now, Cherry picking data and using a massive political and media machine a corporate oligarchy tries convince an American public that the opposite of science fact is true.

Michael Mann in a TED/PSU lecture/video clearly proves how its done over climate change.

The same kind of McCarthyism is happening in the USA with everything from climate change to evolution to financial meltdown

Quite simply

Ethics and morality are being assaulted by

GREED

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The Dark Side

Ron Paul

&

Mitt Romney

Last week Investors411 went over the bright side of Ron Paul. This short video shows the dark side.  The new Iowa front runner proclaims 15 things that are “unconstitutional”

Here’s a sample from Right Wing New’s John Hawkins on the national Republican front runner  “Why Mitt is unelectable.”

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

Sleeping Kitty

Stocks

Bulls want to rally. Indicators like the VIX, Put/Call Ratio and the fact that our McClellan Index is in neutral all show this. Santa Clause and January effects are real phenomena that add to the bullish tone.  Holding them back is Europe. Yesterday European banks gobbled up cheap loans offered by their central bank.

If you want to know if the bulls can break out and stampede check the DAX (German Stocks) and most importantly the 10 year Italian bond rate reaching 7.00%. Closer to 7.00+% the more the bears rule.

Trends

The Mitt Romney flip flop trend has now become

the stuff legends are made of.

Latest  -Iraq war – In 2008 campaign he “supports” the Iraq war – “a good idea worth the cost in blood and treasure we have spent.” By 2008, after 5 years everyone knew there were no WMD’s in Iraq.

Yesterday – “He would never have gone in if he knew there were no WMD’s.”  LINK to story.

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Relaxing today. Hopefully, back tomorrow with much more –

Check out the Comment section for more ideas

The Carnivore, the Boston Shuffler, the Knife…

are some of the names of the algorithms on Wall Street that make up 70% of the operating system of stocks formerly known as known as your pension fund, and portfolio.

What Kevin Slavin is talking about is High Frequency Trading/Black Boxes that dominate The Street. In reality these mathematic algorithms are shaping far more than Wall Street, they’re shaping our world.

Above Photo links to Kevin Slavin’s Presentation.

Photo Credit James Duncan Davidson / TED

The Huffington Post is running a series of the best 18 TED [Ideas Worth Spreading] seminars this year. Slavin’s presentation is #18.

His video is a must, if you’re a trader/investor who wants to know if/why you’re portfolio may melt up or down this year. [Click on Photo for LINK to Video at Huffington Post]

The Ted series has been featured many times on Investors411, because TED presents outside the box, creative ideas that are shaping your life and terraforming this planet.

You can sort these lectures many different ways from the most inspirational to the most viewed – 7,783,815 people have listen to a 2006 Ted lecture by Ken Robinson “Schools Kill Creativity.”

So before today’s football game enjoy a TED presentation or two

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Stocks

Last Tuesday many very smart technical analysts of stocks were using words of caution after Monday’s rally. They said things like -

Don’t get too excited, wait for more days like Monday’s, and volume was too weak.

Not Investors411 - This site was unabashedly vocal in a more  BULLISH outlook. – Investor’s featured The Bullish Puppet Master editorial, an upgrade of stocks  and a New Your Stock List #7.

The rest, as they say is history -

Stocks exploded higher 24 hours later.

Tomorrow

• Why Investors was out front with the upgrade.
• Will the rally continue?
• A new exciting Yankee Bob editorial

Mea Culpa - I mentioned the fact I’d be out of town to the folks on the mail list, but forgot to post it on the blog.  We had a very active comment section this week. Check it out. (Scroll Down)

Barr

Springtime For Europe Then Reality?

We have another major solution to the Eurozone Crisis. German stock market up 4.84% at 8:20 EST and climbing.  So favorable reviews from Germany should transfer across other stock markets . Globalization at work. NYT’s #1 story today. Two biggest points.

• Greek’s default grows from 21% to 50% on bonds
• A $1.4 trillion bailout package to protect banks from  bad debt of all the debtor countries in Europe.

Zero Hedge (libertarian view) negatively dissects some of the details. - A Farce, & Springtime For Europe then Reality - Citigroup’s conclusion, does a good job at outlining what happened and next steps.

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The Lobbyists Dream Candidate

The lobbyists in Washington have chosen their Dream candidate - Mitt Romney

• He’s raised more lobbyist money than all the other Republican candidates put together
• 6 times the amount Obama raised from Wall Street

Mitt just had another Washington lobbyist fund raiser in DC and the invite list included the “Dozen” Biggest of K Street  lobbyists who run our government. Link and Link and LINK

Obama was the last presidential candidate that K Street showered  a just bit more $ on than the challenger  and the negative results are evident. This time around its not even close.

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STOCKS

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Reading Tea Leaves

• Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator, is at +67.29 - overbought = Bearish.

• Our secondary indicator, the Put Call Ratio is at 1.01 = Neutral.

• The PCR is telling us that the professionals who use the Puts and Calls are Neutral. However, since the 50DMA of the PCP is not at 1.00, but much higher at 1.17 Sentiment = Moderately Bullish

As stated before the events in Europe trump this like they did after the 2008 meltdown.

Then, the MO fluctuated between +110 to +20 for two months. At that time there was the start of a set of solutions led by our Fed and Treasury that lite a fire under stocks for two years.

The MO should reach OMG overbought levels today (over +80). This may slow down the stampede and create some dips to buy.

• Now, it seems like the perception of investors is that  the proposed solution in Europe will do something similar tot he stimulus of 2009

• Stocks, especially financials should do better, but just like 2008 people/taxpayers will suffer in Western Democracies.

• The 25% of global growth this year that comes from China(Time magazine) is critical to bullish trend developing.

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Paul’s Corner

3 Days of Ian Woodward

This past weekend I had the great pleasure of attending the fall HGSI Workshop in Palos Verdes Ca. The workshop featured lecture by Ian Woodward and Ron Brown from HGSI. Let me give you a few of the details.

Ok ok, I can hear the moaning, “Oh no here comes more Ian Woodward and HGSI talk”. Please folks humor me, read on!

Ian and Ron’s discussion lasted for three days. Interspersed throughout the weekend there were several guest speakers who added to the value of the workshop.

Ian showed us his research behind HGSI investing and Ron gave live market demonstrations how to maximize using HGSI.  This meeting really helped us understand the undercurrent of the market. Ron and Ian showed us how to get insight using HGSI and related tools in a predictive manner.

Fred Richards – an HGSI contributor, Harvard Economics Professor and longtime expert investor gave us a great overview of the world economic stage and what to expect going forward.  Fred is a great CANSLIM type investor with decades of experience and great stories. A friend of his when growing up was William O’Neil of Investor’s Business Daily.   It was wonderful hearing Fred and by good fortune I sat next to Fred at dinner Saturday evening. Ian bought dinner for all at a wonderful Mexican restaurant

LINK

Chris White demonstrated his new software EdgeRater 5.0.   Chris demonstrated how using HGSI, one can do an end of day update across the market of index, ETFs and Stocks in just a few key strokes.  Perhaps the greatest benefit of using EdgeRater with HGSI is EdgeRater takes many of the tools developed by Ian and Ron and automates them in EdgeRater giving us a predictive look into the markets.

LINK

Chris Wilson an HGSI user demonstrated his techniques for Pairs trading.  Using HGSI and a non-proprietary set of tools using HGSI, Chris broke new ground with a technique based upon the changes in RS over time between an equity and a comparative index or ETF.

Dr. Jeffrey Scott, an HGSI user, presented stocks for consideration of our next JIRM index, our early warning indicator of a failing market.  For background, check out Ian’s blog, posted on the HGSI website: Stock Market: Doom and Gloom or Plain Sailing? September 25th, 2011.This exercise gave us early insight we are clearly seeing rotation into unusual leaders such as SBUX, KMB and MCD. This rotation reflects the current fear in the marketplace.  This was an excellent lesson in chart reading and fundamental analysis. We ended up selecting 19 high quality leaders in this exercise. Only attendees have this list and if you wish to see it you have to attend a work shop.

LINK

For me the highlight of the workshop was a brief lecture by Gil Morales (author of Trade Like an O’Neill Disciple) to review his tidea on current market conditions and update us on pocket pivots.  Gil was supposed to give an hour discussion but it soon turned into 2 ½ hour lesson of correctly shorting a stock. Gil also painted a concerned picture on the market and gave us some names to consider shorting.  Gil was an analyst for Investors Business Daily. He uses HGSI to scan for pocket pivots. A pocket pivot signal gives a very early signal that a stock is getting ready to break out. I have studied the signals for months now and they do appear to be a very good early indicator.

LINK

My wife joined me on this trip and we took some time touring Pasadena, Hollywood, Beverly Hills and Bellaire. She really enjoyed buying clothes! I was a great weekend.

We all like to talk about our best stock trade. The investment I made this past weekend with respect to time, air fare, hotel, Seminar cost has to be the best stock investment I have ever made. It was an outstanding weekend.

If any of you are serious about developing your trading skills, Ian’s next workshop is scheduled for March 24-26. I encourage you to join us.

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Positions

SPY – (ETF tracks S&P 500 or SPX) bought at 122.5 (See Monday’s blog for details)

Your Stock List#5 - Mea Culpa – Holding stocks through earnings season is always dangerous. 5 of our 14 stocks took  some big earnings hits (one on an analysts downgrade) So Paul & I have decided to drop TSU, RES, CROX, GMCR, & CPHD. Their positions will be closed at end of day. LINK to entire list (scroll down)

Future considerations – SSO (ETF that is @2X SPX) Buy on dip. Investors411 uses a buy the dip strategy in markets that are trending higher.

Bottom Line - It looks like a trend is starting. This is a significant bailout in Europe. There will probably be more. Little discussed China is the key to global growth and this trend developing.  The greatest risk is at the start of a trend, but also the biggest reward. Obviously the trend is NOT solidly in place.

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Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

Kleptocracy

From Wikipedia – Kleptocracy ” is a term applied to a government subject to control fraud that takes advantage of governmental corruption to extend the personal wealth and political power of government officials and the ruling class”

Charles Hugh Smith has a worthy editorial. Here’s an outline of the money points. (The editorial will fill in the details)

• Neither party has any interest in limiting the banking/financial cartel

• Our stock markets are dominated by insiders

• The rule of law in the U.S. has been divided into two branches: one in name only for the financial Elites and corporate cartels, and one for the rest of us mere citizens.

• Just as in Greece, taxes are optional for the nation’s financial Elites.

Just how much would it cost to buy back the congress from Special Interests

A Happy 4th of July from our Kleptocracy

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+1.25	Up
NASDQ	+1.21	Up
S&P 500	+1.01	Flat
Russell 2000	+0.92	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• Technically, the huge 4 day move off a double bottom (prices make a low and test it – see charts on far right) is very bullish If you check out the long term/weekly chart of S&P 500 you’ll find the @seven times a move of this size happened stocks were higher 3 to 6 months later. The dark cloud is there is not as much volume behind this move higher.

• QE #2 is officially over.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +68.08 (above +30 somewhat overbought , above +60 overbought, above +90 OMG overbought) Repeat - The +50 resistance level has been obliterated = Long Term Bullish In 2010  the MO made it above +70 3 times. In 2009 the MO reached over +100 twice  Short term  overbought = Bearish

• $USD The Dollar fell  again -0.34% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. Big reversal down in last 4 days. Most of this movement is based on Greece. Short term tend for stocks now = Bullish

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term  - Repeat- A raging bull is stampeding and right now it looks like the only barrier is that markets are almost oversold and what earnings season might have next month.  MO is at +68 = oversold. Other Indexes I look at are also entering oversold, but not yet at OMG oversold.

• Outside the HTF and Trading desks there are a bunch of normal day/swing traders who have missed the rally and are waiting to buy the first dip.

The 4 Day Bull Stampede

Long Term

weeks/months/years

• As stated above – a huge technical price move higher over the last 3 years has led to a higher market 3 to 6 month later. One caution – this move has the least volume behind it of the @ seven other major week long moves up in the last 3 years.

• We still have a gap to earnings season – there have been very few warnings. Fundamentally a negative jobless rate (monthly jobs #comes out late next week) in the USA will impact the US economy far more than stocks. Stock growth relies on emerging markets and the potential problem there is they are growing too fast. The 4 day bull rally is  taking a stand – there is NO worldwide recession ahead

• Reading Tea Leaves – I’ve just finished reading Charles Hugh Smith’s editorials on Kleptocracy and have come to the conclusion that there is no way out government (both parties) is NOT going to back the Major Corporations, and the Uber Wealthy. (Obviously, this view is very close to the one Investors411 has held.)

Our Kleptocracy may screw almost every working class American but it also put a floor under the stock market.

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Your Stock List

Here’s the LINK to a spreadsheet of YSL #4.

Our older YSL #3  outperformed YSL #4. Both beat the benchmark S&P 500. So did YSL 1 & 2

Remember t0 Send in by emails or post in the comment section any choices YOU have for YSL # 5

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock

Short term strategy is to short overbought stocks. Bought 1/2 position in TZA. Probably premature.  May sell at open and wait for better entry. A much safer trade is to wait for an MO approaching +90.

Long Term Strategy – In NEUTRAL right now.

Gold/Silver – Almost always when the dollar falls as it has gold rises. It’s not.

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. (I’ve cut back on short ETF’s) – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

Paul is on break for a couple weeks

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Outlook for 2nd Quarter

Case for the Bears

• Japan problem is underestimated and damage to the country’s GDP and the world’s supply change is worse than expected
• The latest housing and consumer confidence numbers are worse than expected and a second housing recession is expected.
• It’s only a matter of time before one of the PIIGS countries in Europe defaults and it will spread.
• Libya is a stalemate and challenges/chaos toward oil dictators will grow.
• State budgets are breaking down because of the lack of revenue and this means greater unemployment.
• More people in the USA are on food stamps than ever before.
• Opaque corrupt Shadow banks  are facing a mortgage crisis (thanks to Robert H for the heads up on the 60 Minutes Show)
• Quantitative easing will end and everything will fall apart because there is no entity big enough to buy as many treasuries as the Fed.
• Inflation and the over supply of unsold housing is going to explode in China, sinking the rest of the world.
• Inflation is coming and this will squash equities
• Earnings disappoint

The Case for the Bulls

• The Fed is going to keep pumping liquidity into the economy. QE #2 continues to June 30th.
• Even after 6/30 there will be a whole lot of liquidity sloshing around and QE 3# is likely if we start falling.
• The recovery from -700k jobs per month to +200k jobs per month shows an economic rebound in the USA.
• Emerging markets are growing again.
• The lack of wage growth and the huge numbers on food stamps in the USA will keep inflation lower than expected.

Bottom Line for Most Stocks – Once a trend is in place, you go with the trend until it breaks.

The Fed Rules (see past updates starting in November or Strategy Section of blog) This trend has crushed major black swan events (Japan & revolutions &  anticipated impending doom listed above) and until it breaks its strong.

This trend has a new force behind it – the better employment numbers. As unfortunate and cruel as the lack of wage growth and record number of people on food stamps  is, it serves to mitigate inflation. Obviously it also show an wealthy oligarchy further crushing lower class Americans.

Dramatically higher oil prices and/or a dramatic fall in the dollar could break the bulls. Of course some unforeseen catastrophe could too. Also,  if earnings season is a disaster, instead of mildly disappointing we could end up down.

Short term we are oversold and ripe for a small correction, but the Long Term outlook remains CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

and – yes its all a bubble – How can you build a growing economy on a corrupt financial structure and a  growing imbalance of wealth in the #1 economy of the world?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.19%	down
NASDQ	-0.01%	down
S&P 500	+0.03%	down
Russell 2000	+0.31%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more. Remember Fed liquidity (POMO, QE 2 or quantitative easing) announced ending is June 30th.

• Yawn - Another low volume rally. In fact, the lowest , non holiday,  volume day since 2008.
• Repeat - Bulls have two strong fundamentals – Jobs are recovering and Fed’s liquidity injections.-
• Because of the corruption, and lack of transparency housing still a major problem
• Wages still have not increased for most American workers.
• The above two factors should mitigate rising inflation in commodities.
• China has raised  interest rates – 4th time since October – They are worried about growing too fast and a housing problem. This will hurt stocks in the near term
• Emerging  Markets are leading this leg of bull market and the above should give them a whack.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar saw a huge rally collapse and ended  a wee bit higher +0.10. Chart pattern showing volatility/erratic so short term hard to call, but longer term bearish  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to +46.12. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. This is, therefore, the highest the MO has been since early September 2010. We haven’t hit +60, but for stocks = Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Little change from yesterday, except that the leading emerging markets are even more overbought and overdue for a correction.

Bottom Line - No Black Swan events have been able to seriously impact the Fed liquidity driven equity market.

What to watch today - Market movers - UUP (the dollar) still has most influential, unless others make some huge move.

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya not good.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bearish
• Japan Rector Developments – This keeps getting worse.
• EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting  way over extended.

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Positions

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. Historically driving season in summer drives prices up in the late spring. Supply problems exist because of revolutions/instability in oil producing countries. If these problems are resolved then UCO should NOT be held.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  Simply put because of limited supply of rare earth metals and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. Only some sort of major economic collapse will hurt this sector. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) and/or SLV (silver). AGQ (2x silver) Both inflation worries and a falling dollar positively impact this sector. Silver actually has a manufacturing component.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS

UWM (2x small cap stocks) or TNA (3X small cap stocks) The later for more aggressive traders. Closest correlation to MO and falling dollar. Small cap stocks are outperforming.

EEM (emerging markets) and/or ILF (Latin America) EDC (3X emerging markets) The later for most aggressive traders. Emerging markets are leading the world and after underperforming for years they are back.

EWV (ultra short Japan) The horrific and tragic situation there has been minimized. This holding acts in part as a hedge especially for US small cap stocks and emerging markets.

TMV (3x 20+ year Treasury yields)

A winning hedge has been UWM & EWV combination (some of you may have problems emotionally shorting Japan)

ROM (2x techs) & TYH (3x techs) The later for most aggressive traders.–  Technology has been toasted and if the S&P is higher on June 30th, this sector should catchup.

I’ll keep this on the blog’s home page for a week or two then place it ion the Positions page.

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Your Stock List created 3/7 has underperformed the other 3, because it is overweight tech stocks. A major tech stock, Texas Instruments, bought another company and this should help the whole tech sector today. Paul R often comments on these and other stocks/sectors in the comments section of the blog.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.“

Burning Book

Libya – The UN/Obama’s reason for a no fly zone was to prevent a genocide. The USA/Obama policy is the removal of Ka Daffy. They are two different concepts. Obama’s action in the use of force against Libya without congressional approval was probably unconstitutional, but events on the ground called for immediate action before the collapse of opposition forces.

Japan –  It’s obvious to the whole world that the Japanese government has not been honest about the extent of damage from their nuclear problem. The Japanese people have been heroic. Radiation 20 km away from plant is 1600 times normal according to IAEA A significant potion of Japan is going to become a radiative wasteland like Chernobyl disaster in Russia.

Smoke and Mirrors of a

Manipulated Markets

Burn all the historic book on stock market analysis out there. Forget the analysis of of self interested talking heads on the tube. What we have in the USA is simply a manipulated market that has  radically altered what used to pass for traditional investing.

Forget the experts and/or brokers who are paid exorbitant fees for market analysis. Burn the book and blow away the smoke. Here’s new rule #1. When volume is abysmal US stocks move higher. Little else matters.

Low volume = a rally

Why when volume plunges does the market rally? Simply put – Its easier to manipulate. This allows those entities juiced by zero % interest rates, those benefiting from the Fed POMO program, and big US companies with hoard of cash to manipulate stocks higher.

One favorite way is through High Frequency Trades (HFT’s) that almost mystically make huge buy and sell offers for stocks appear, vanish and sometime buy. These automated computer programs seemingly vanish in high volume but reappear when volume dries up and drive stocks higher. Of course certain HFT’s are always around taking advantage of trade imbalances.

Bottom Line –  For all of you who trade or own stocks  This is a headline driven market and it takes a massive headline to overwhelm the manipulators. It took both the Middle East crisis & Japan Catastrophe to even put a dent in manipulated stocks.

Short term the tsunami of  liquidity makes this a manipulated bull market. Longer term there are some very negative consequences, but that’s another editorial.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+1.50%	down
NASDQ	+1.83%	down
S&P 500	+1.50%	down
Russell 2000	+2.31%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Lowest volume since Feb. 14th. Low volume = markets rally. The lower the volume the easier it is to manipulate the markets Therefore the manipulators –  the Fed, shadow banks, High Frequency Traders & others push stocks higher.
• The far less than 50% of the market that belongs to investors who make their decisions on stock valuations are currently focused on  - higher oil prices, a falling dollar, economic distortions created by Japan, & emerging market growth
• The following is becoming the dominant force in the US stock market. -If markets go down its because of fundamental reasons. When US stocks rise its because of manipulation.
• Since QE2 began in November there have been dozens upon dozens of low volume rally days. Sometimes huge rallies, sometimes small. That’s the new normal.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell again -0.42% Bearish longer term pattern. Major support level broken. Down 6 of last 7 days. For stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +6.32  Right in the middle – not overbought or oversold. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The USD and the MO are the two technical tools that have a track record of working in this manipulated US stock market. One is neutral the other bullish.

The dollar’s fall is good for stocks, but as mentioned numerous times before, falling too far too fast is dangerous. We haven’t reached those levels yet, but if the dollar falls another 3 to 5 % rapidly you are going to hear a chorus of very worried economists

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
• Japan Rector Developments (diminishing factor, but still important)

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Positions

UWM – Will sell 1/2 at @5% profit and let the rest ride. Will sell/haves stop at 1/2 at price it was bought for

See yesterday’s blog for list of considered ETF’s

Will buy the dip to buy if we get one today. Of course if there is a catastrophic negative headline I’ll wait to buy. Perhaps last day before MO gets too high to buy.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

If the majority of the major indexes again start to trade above their 50 day moving averages the long term outlook will change back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) already is and the others are close. (See charts at top right of blog)