Zach Wahls

Why has this 19 year old scholar’s 3 minute video been seen by 15,540,308 million people?

Zach Wahls Speaks About Family

The Video

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Occupy Wall Street

Note – Cartoon from outside USA

Some signs OWS’s Message about

Income Inequality is resonating

• Obama now talks the talk.  Many question if he will walk the walk (see yesterday’s Investors411 & comment section)

• NY governor with 65% approval rating, Andrew Cuomo, gets NY legislature to approve additional taxes for the wealthy while cutting them for middle class Americans - Story Link

• It’s way early, but consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren has taken a lead in polling for the MA Senate race over Scott Brown, even though Carl Rove’s group is airing negative adds tying her to OWS.

Compilation from Huffington Post

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STOCKS

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Here’s a list of 130 stories raging from next weeks Fed meetings to the disputed “secret loans”

Strong correlation between Europe and US stock opening price

Admiral Sestak (above) beats 30 year incubate Specter in PA Senate Democrat race

Incumbents Get Toasted

From TalkingPointsMemo.com a rundown of last night’s election across the USA. In almost every case incumbetes lost or did far worse than expected (D – AR.). The only exception is in PA – 12 John Murtha’s old seat where Democrats had a bigger than expected victory over Republicans for the congressional seat. Ron Paul’s son won Republican primary in KY.

Both the far left and far right (Ron Paul) are supporting Teddy Roosevelt like changes to Wall Street.  Libertarian, Ron Paul on the far right wants us out of the MidEast (and other areas our troops occupy) far more than any other Republican and most Democrats.

Republican’s Blocking Financial Reform

The following comes from Left wing Huffington Post. Republicans blocking Three Major Financial Reforms

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Its all about the Dollar. The dollar rose a HUGE +1.07 % and consequently stocks took it on the chin. Dollar is at 87.11 and close to major resistance at just above $88.  The McClellan Oscillator is in oversold territory at ironically the same -88. We sent a record at -123 a week back.  This probably means we could fall another 2 to 4% at on the major indexes before technically a turn becomes almost inevitable.

At some point in time this year stocks will reach +60 on the McClellan like they did almost 10 times last year.

Germany made a solo move and banned naked short selling (a good move , but a lack of coordination with Euro bad) Story = Bearish

All of this is about the European stability and survivability. If this EU falls so does the worlds largest economic zone. (yes its slightly bigger than the USA) The good news for Europe is the lower the Euro goes the better it is for their exports

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell to -88.08 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is OVERSOLD territory. The lower this oscillator go the more oversold markets become. -123 was the multi year low over a week ago.  Bullish
• US Dollar – Yesterday the dollar rose to $87.11. (sorry for misprint yesterday,dollar started the day near 86) Up +1.07 [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important . The area around $88 is a major resistance area/ multi year high for the dollar.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Have not had a chance to update the positions section of blog.  No buying & selling yesterday.

We are deeper into OVERSOLD territory, McClellan at -88.08 = The momentum on the downside is strong. It looks like we will reach or approach -123 again.

Our top two stock positions IMAX & ESTX are holding up quite well. Others are at or approaching the prices they were bought at.

Still own 5% position in UWM. Stopped out for 2% loss on other 5% Still looking at situation as an upcoming drops as buy the dips.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Barack The Barbarian

Picked up my copy of “Barack the Barbarian” with my grandson at the local comic book store yesterday. “You betcha” I choose the copy with the scantily clad Red Sarah on the cover. Opening scene – A  better than buff with loin cloth and boots Obama riding a blue donkey - “into a place where the interest of a wealthy few were placed before the interests of the needful many.”

For more including bigger photos click here

The CIA Lied

This should come as no shock. CIA director Leon Panetta has admitted that the CIA lied to Congress about the war in Iran. More here

No surprise here. The whole Cheney/Bush continually lied about the “unjust” Iran war (“unjust” was the term used by the Sec. General of the UN and pretty much the rest of the world)

Californification – Why Referendum’s Suck.

By far California has the deepest fiscal problem of any state . Californian’s are pointing and blaming a whole lot of people from the “Governator” on down.  But they have only themselves to blame or more specifically their referendum system. I’m not specifically singling out people in California, because most people will vote their self interest in any referendum and few look at the big picture.

Just a few example of how California went broke through referendums.

• Prop 13 – Your property is valued at the time you bought it – So, two simialar houses one bought 30 years ago is worth sometimes 80% less than the  similar property bought today = Huge shortfall in revenue.
• State legislators need a 2/3 vote to make any changes in taxes. (one of two states with this law)
  
• All residence are given tuition free admission to state colleges.

Actually this is strikingly similar to the US government. Over the last ten years our federal government similarly voted to let capitalism have almost  no regulations, ran trillions dollar wars, created huge trade deficits, and instituted new spending programs while reducing taxes.

Iran

photo from Truthdig

Another day of demonstrations in Iraq.  Protestors shouting Allah Acbar from rooftops at night in defiance of the government.  Nico Pitney at Huffington Post & Andrew Sullivan (scroll down) at Atlantic carry lots of videos.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

As predicted at the beginning of the week we are already challenging the major support level. We did stay above the mega 875 support level on the benchmark S&P 500 yesterday. Technically – a short term bullish sign.

Earnings season around the corner.

Another major forecasting tool is how markets/stocks react to news.

• Yesterday the first company to report was Alcoa Aluminum with better than expected news.
• The Dollar fell dramatically
• Unemployment figure for the week fell dramatically.

This was a lot of good news and US stock markets went nowhere. = Bear’s Rule

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

The BDI has become the best of these three forecasting tools .

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI fell for the 7th day in a row .  Clearly established  bears rule trading pattern of lower highs and now lower lows over the last month.   WARNING -  The breakdown in trade is very significant to any worldwide recovery . BEARS RULE

The BDI is now the first chart I look at each day. – Globalization has greatly added to the interconnectedness of the world’s economies. It’s a worldwide recession, and if trade prices break down so will individual economies.

Here’s a bit more descriptive look at the BDI. Again you can adjust the chart’s time period.

$USD - The Dollar fell dramatically yesterday -0.98% The strong inverse correlation between the dollar and stocks has existed for many moons. Dollar up = markets down.

Just like that the dollar went from close to the top of its consolidation pattern to close to the bottom (see recent Investors411). This should have given stocks a real boost higher.  It didn’t. Bad news in short term for stocks Long term Bearish pattern for Dollar = bullish for stocks

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Reading the Tea Leaves

Forget adding to any positions right now. Until the BDI starts to turn up adding to long positions are way too risky. The fact that US markets did not move higher on yesterday’s good economic news is another bad sign.

Warning – Sure looks like the major support level of 875 on the S&P 500 is still in trouble. Expect a major attack today. If 875 goes down we could see a quick 2 to 5% loss on the S&P 500. Next major support around 830 .

Our Positions (For more see Positions section of Investors 411-scroll down)

Cutting back on the last 2.5% of GEX seems prudent at this time. We will reenter alternative energy using PBW (a more liquid alternative energy). Hopefully at a lower price than it is now.

Why – Oil prices are tumbling and energy is tied to oil. It will be a while before cap and trade makes its way through congress.  Technically even though oil prices paused in their decline there is probably another leg down and this will take alternative energy with it.

Short Term Bottom Line – Investors are waiting to see how earnings season develops. Alcoa’s better than expected earnings failed to move markets. Some or the giants report next week. If they too have better than expected earnings and investors fail to buy we’re in trouble.

Still look at a dip below 875 as a “buy the dip” opportunity.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING