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Cancer

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A powerful emotional video that stands alone today

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What Breast Cancer Is and Is NOT

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One courageous and heroic lady’s 4 minute video on Cancer.

NB – I believe this video was made before Susan G Komen reversed its position

Today’s Post is dedicated to my mother, daughter, and sister who all know what Linda is talking about.

PINK Ribbon Friday

At 4:15 AM EST I dropped my wife off at the starting point for the 3 day, 60 mile, in what will be 100+ degree temperature  Susan G Komen “Race for the Cure”  in a Boston suburb.

To all of you who have contributed to my wife’s or one of my daughter’s efforts (First Descents) to raise money and/or awareness of Cancer THANKS. For all YOU do to help others, no matter what the cause, (and lots of  YOU do far more than we do) another thanks.

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YOUR Comments

Often, like yesterday, the Comment Section (scroll down) comes alive with Stock Concepts (see Paul & The Critic) and political debates/information. The follow comment and reply have stirred some passions and thought provoking concepts.

From Popeye -

Paul –  So many misguided Americans fall into the trap created by the wealthy oligarchy that controls the media. 2008 is the example of them privatizing the gains and socializing the losses. (Barr’s phrase)

Shadow banks etc. stole or manipulate trillions to themselves and their friends. Instead of focusing anger on those who caused the 2008 meltdown and steal trillions, the right wing media has  many Americans blaming each other, hating each other, fear mongering each other and fighting to divide the SCRAPS left on the table.

Hate the teachers, hate the government workers, hate the unions, hate the seniors who get social security, hate the cops. They’re responsible for the 2008 meltdown and all the jobs going overseas. – WRONG

I back those who are willing to work, and if being a liberal means that millionaires and billionaires should pay more for the damage they have cause then I’m a Liberal.

What the oligarchy wants is to eviscerate government to nothing. Then without any check and balance they can squeeze what remains of the American middle class out of existence and replace us with the Chinese consumer.

Reply From JS

Popeye,
You don’t have to be a Liberal to hate the banksters, and how they got away with it all. I guess you think the NYTimes and the liberal media that I mentioned are controlled by the right wing oligarchs.

How did you, Barr, Paul and others get the info you refer to? You got it because you’re not lazy. So the big battle is who will control, influence the “great unwashed”?  Did they vote for Obama? I guess the right didn’t control the media or unwashed during that election. The right only controls the media  when the Reps win? The Dems can raise mucho dinero; look at all Obama has raised so far this cycle, even though the Wall street tycoons are cool to him this time. How about the 2008 election, who raised the most? The question, I believe, with all the money out there for the left, is why can’t they have a competitive cable outlet. What happened to Air America? This question has to be faced by the left. Are they that incompetent?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+1.21%	Up
NASDQ	+0.72%	Up
S&P 500	+1.35%	Up
Russell 2000	+1.07%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• Repeat – Yesterday (2 days ago) was the confirmation day of Tuesday’s big rally. What we got is a weak confirmation – a slight decline but in weak volume. Technically this is a wee bit bullish. Yesterday the wee bit bull turned into a big time bull

• As mentioned two weeks ago - “If the US debt default starts to hurt stocks, politicians will fix the problem rapidly because their campaigns are all funded by an elite oligarchy of insiders.” However, it matters what investors worldwide think of our political/economic system. That confidence was shaken in 2008. Idiot politicians can further destroy this confidence with their inability to compromise.

• Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below -

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +20.35 (+30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought, +90 OMG overbought). The more overbought we get the better the chance for a reversal to the downside) Still lots of room for MO to move higher or lower. Last high almost 3 weeks ago was +90. Current Level = Neutral

• $USD The Dollar fell a massive -1.04% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Not only was the fall massive, but the price chart shows we broke through a month+ long support level. Very bearish for dollar, but for stocks = Bullish

• Reading The Tea Leaves Solid earnings in tech stocks is bullish.

• NB - There is also reason to believe that major US based International Corporations will do well or won’t suffer badly even if the US defaults in the short term. Main Street and our financial credibility will suffer far more with inflation, especially in the long term. Major globalized companies (example APPL, CAT, etc.) will benefit from the devaluation of the dollar. Their goods will cost less with a falling dollar.

• Also, any default will cause chaos in the bond market and drive some of that cash into stocks. Clearly stocks should suffer, but the point is they may not take a big a hit as bonds, housing prices, and other asset groups more directly impacted by inflation/interest rates

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• May 20th forecast still relevant. However Technically the strong volume confirms the rally (see above explanation) and has changed the long term outlook to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. Caution – Changes in long term outlook are subject to change because the trend is not yet firmly established.

• Repeat - It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki Dance over the debt will end. Therefore, hanging in their with a NEUTRAL Long Term Forecast. However, perception favors bulls.

• Caution – This market is still dominated by High Frequency Traders and Central Banks.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

This sections needs to catch up with changing events – See stock lists of Paul & The Critic in yesterday’s comment section of the blog (scroll down)

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

All the blow concepts are at least, in part,  considered of the potential of a US default

GLD & SLV – Sorry again did NOT pull trigger on this trade. See yesterday’s comments section of blog.

UDN & UUP - Considering holding UDN – An ETF that shorts  the dollar. Another possibility in “Puts” on UUP – An ETF that is double long the dollar. Shoulda, Woulda Coulda – Both these trades and BZF moved in the right direction. Waiting or a dip.

BZF - ETF that tracks Brazil’s currency.

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks (also a couple other long term investments) including NLY. I have placed puts on one ETF of a major index and a couple of dividend stocks. I dropped one short position yesterday. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

I firmly believe you can make money with BOTH long term investments and short term trades.

See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

Don’t forget to send in your stock choices fro our new Stock List #5

Deadline Friday 4:00PM EST

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Fear

Each day two classrooms in the United States are emptied in the USA because these children are diagnosed with cancer.

Yet the brainwashing American media yesterday, from networks to blogs, focused on a “mentally ill, homeless and violent” man with guns and a bomb holding three hostages in Silver Springs MD.

Our culture has simple become conditions to over hype anything with guns, bombs and a potential terrorism because fear of terrorism sells politically and commercially. Your chances of dying from cancer, diabetes, heart attacks, or going brain dead from alzheimer are thousands of of times greater than a terrorist attack. Sure, we should be vigilant but we should also recognize reality.

Wikipedia reports that only 16% of the approximately 200,000 rapes a year in the USA are reported. How many classrooms are emptied because of the million women who get raped each year in the USA? Yet our American media growing trend is to focus on any potential terrorist related violence rather than rape.

Guess which country is #1 in the world in number of reported rapes so far this year?

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+2.54%	?up
NASDQ	+2.97%	down
S&P	+2.95%	down
Russell 2000	+3.81%	-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Quotes from yesterday - “Churning. “More often than not a big battle like yesterday between bulls & bears means a reversal in direction. In this case that would be a rally….Overall think the BB/HFT’s are setting up for a rally.

We had one big rally in slightly above average, but decreased volume. (sorry for  ”?up” above – couldn’t clearly read the NASDQ volume chart) This is your typical rally in a BB/HFT controlled market.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, of course, fell  a whopping -0.82%.  Because the BB?/HFT are obsessed with the inverse dollar/stock relationship, you’d naturally expect a huge drop in one gets a huge rise in the other = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.03% yesterday. After a 5 week rally the BDI has flattened out. Now starting to rise. = Neutral/Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +6.81 Now above Zero, & both 50 & 200DMA’s. Nowhere near +/- 60 so there is lots of wiggle room on each side, but momentum obviously with bulls. Therefore = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Monitor, a trader, in comments section of blog describes the MO forecasting tool best – “An observation – The McCellan Oscillator works!!!!! Plus or minus 60 seems to be a reasonable point where markets turn. If you like to take risks just go long or “buy the dip” when its under minus 40 and wait. Within a few weeks it will be at over 40 and sell”

It actually not all that cut and dry, but the general focus seems to be correct for a Long Term NEUTRAL market.

Mea Culpa - For long term investors there was a point over a week ago when the MO was below -60 & the Dow fell another 100 points which was a buy point.  Personally, as the record shows, I did buy some long positions TYH & SSO, but let the FEAR of loosing $ force me out of those positions with minor gains instead of holding onto those positions. My mistake.

Obviously another typical BB/HFT rally where short positions are forced to buy stocks to cover their positions. This gives added momentum to the rally.

September looks to be one roller coaster ride, now with an upside bias. There will be buying and selling points for both traders and investors. Stay tuned.

The obvious sub trend brought about by globalization is the economic deterioration of the US economically  vs the ecomomic rise of emerging markets and energy rich countries (peak oil mega trend – see Overview section of blog).

Will the emerging markets grow fast enough to pull the USA out of the Great Recession?

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!