Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
March 25, 2010

“Baby Killer”

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Democratic congressman Jim Clyburn

“Baby Killer”

YOU, in the comment section of the blog, have had a rational debate over the tax implication of the health care bill starting started by John Sovjani and now ending with a NYT article from Ewanapat that shows, in part, who benefits and who pays. The rest of the nation has not.

One Texas Republican congressman screamed “Baby Killer” while a Democrat spoke on the heath care bill. Later he apologized, but this calculated move will bring huge amounts of cash into his campaign for congress. Across the country Death Threats, vandalism, break ins, gas lines cut, and even photos of hang man nooses have been sent to at least 10 Democrat congressmen and women who voted for the health care bill.

Here’s a report from yesterday. From today, where families of Democratic congressmen who supported health care are moving out of their districts because of the death threats. Sarah Palin’s website is painting bulls eye’s on targeted democratic congressmen CBS reports

When Black Democrats like congressmen Jim Clyburn (D – Majority Whip) gets a noose & death threats faxed to him it is exactly what happened to those who dared stand up for civil rights in the 60′s.

No matter what side of the health care debate you are on – if you do nothing you condone the behavior. At least tell a co worker or friend that this kind of tactic is unacceptable.

Chimerica

(part 2)

The USA has lost 2.4 million jobs because of the trade gap with China -Study reported in WSJ. Yesterday, our House Ways and Means Committee, announced it was holding hearings China artificially keeping her currency pegged to the USA’s. Niall Ferguson is a most outstanding source of info on this.

Bottom Line – We need many of those 2.4 million jobs back in the USA, but a trade or economic war with China would be devastating to the world’s economy.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.48% up
NASDQ -0.68% flat
S&P 500 -0.55% up
Russell 2000 -0.96% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

The US dollar exploded higher breaking out of its trading pattern. The strong inverse correlation between US stocks and the dollar once again took hold pushing US equities lower. Stocks fell in basically higher volume.

What’s happening is that Greece and some other European countries involved in the Common Market have weak currencies and the relative to them the dollar is stronger. These problems have two root causes -

  • The same financial meltdown that hit us is hitting them. Remember, the reckless lending of super banks/shadow banks was a global phenomena. In this case the Greek government aided by Goldman Sachs covered up their debt.
  • Greece and some other European countries have swung too far into socialism – example may can retire at 50 in Greece with almost full benefits. This is the exact opposite of the USA which has swung too far into greed based capitalism.

Expect a rebound as momentum is still clearly with the bulls and the McClellan oscillator turned red (below zero)

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell to -1.66 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought. When the $NYMO is around zero those who can accept more risk can nibble on stocks & ETF’s.
  • US Dollar - Exploded higher +1.34%. Anything over 1.00% is considered a huge move and this move was also a breakout to a new high.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Our remaining China position FXI (Also EWZ & MOO)

Over the course of the last few months Investors has decreased FXI holdings from a high of almost 25% to the current 5%. China has been an investment mainstay of Investors411 for many years. Unfortunately many imbalances (see yesterday’s Chimerica piece) especially with the US and a over supply of public and retail housing is clouding the future.

This is also true for emerging markets that have been under performing US stock markets.  Technically after years of out performance this was bound to happen regardless of the fundamental problems in China. Our other major foreign investment. Brazil, EWZ is also under performing. Again over many months we have reduced holdings from a high of almost 25% to 5%. Brazil has a presidential election and the economically successful “socialist” president of the last 8 years is not running. Markets hate change.

The overall problem is does China have a soft landing or a hard one?  Yesterday, our House Ways and Means Committee, announced it was holding hearings on  China artificially keeping her currency pegged to the USA’s. Niall Ferguson is a most outstanding source of info on this.

MOO is an agriculture ETF whose growth relies on emerging markets buying US agricultural products and equipment.  Investors has cut this from 10% to 5% position.

Strategy – Bottom Line – Will drop remaining 5% in FXI into a rally.  Investors is building it own market basket of 3D stocks and health care stocks. (see past blog posts) Investing in ETF’s  (example TYH) that do 2 & 3 times what US indexes do when they are oversold.  Also considering YOUR stock list for investments.

Apologies for everyone who just wants to buy and hold forever.  It’s just NOT your parents market. Blame technology.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 24, 2010

Chimerica

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

chinaamerica.jpg

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Chimerica

Without all the emerging market growth over the last decade (especially the last 5 years) my guesstimate is that the USA would have been in a recession well before the end of 2008 & you could shave at least 3% off USA GDP. Gravity (see comments section) worries about the China bubble bursting. We all do. We need China’s cheaper products, to sell to her growing markets, & China buying US debt. China needs our import market & our technology to grow – hence a symbiotic Chimerica. Many are worried including Ferguson

It was Harvard’s Niall Ferguson who made the term Chimericia popular. His editorial What Chimerica has Wrought

The money quote from this editorial (his book The Ascent of Money is better – both WSJ & NYT favorable reviews) and the reason we desperately need to fix our financial system -

“Why should the rest of the world ever again take seriously the American free market model after this debacle?” a leading British journalist recently asked me.This crisis, he argued, is to economics what the Iraq war has been to foreign policy: a fatal blow to the credibility of U.S. claims to global primacy.”

If this relationship breaks down it will have a very negative impact on stocks world wide.

Health Care

What an amazing turn around on the polls over health care  which had been viewed negatively by most Americans.  Gallop/USA today poll shows Obama/Pelosi heath care plan 49% = good & 40% = bad

John Sovjani (see comments section of blog) has opened a debate over who pays for heath care and Popeye has responded with deficit reduction, but wants public option.   The Devil is in the details on who benefits and who pays. You can be sure Both Democrats and Republicans will continue to lie and exaggerate about health care solutions. This is because both parties correctly see heath care as something they will gain or loose voters over. Remember

Ronald Reagan famously argued that Medicare would mean the end of American freedom


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.95% up
NASDQ +0.83% flat
S&P 500 +0.72% up
Russell 2000 +1.08% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Party On - This rally is all about the FED whose continued statement has been “interest rates are going to stay low for an extended period of time.” This was reinforced by two fed governors yesterday (Yellen & Lacker)

How markets react to news is our #2 confirmation factor and bad news does not seem to slow the rally train (see yesterday’s blog).

In the short term – until the McClellan Oscillator reaches oversold or some unexpected major economic event occurs - party on

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose to +23.97 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought. When the $NYMO is around zero those who can accept more risk can nibble on stocks & ETF’s.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From Monday - “If stocks do not take a hit Monday, on worries over potentially more stringent rules in financial sector, we have one strong bull market and get on the train.” After a two day rally, stocks should technically dip this AM and those risk takers may find a better entry point.

For Shorter Term Traders

Bought TYH (10% position at 155.00) – Will sell 1/2 for 3 to 5% hopefully  today – placed stop/sell order at 155.05. However may

Bought ESRX at 102.00 (2% position) – Not waiting for a dip was probably a mistake in the short term here. (more on this sector tomorrow)

Bought DWA at 41.44 (a 2% position) – Think 3D “Dragon Film” which opens soon will be box office smash. & technically Dreamworks was bouncing off its 50 day moving average.

Would have loved to added to IMAX when it was below 15.5, but missed out on dip – Now at 16.61. Will buy a dip. Note – Hope this whole sector is a long term trade- This includes DWA & other 3d stocks mentioned yesterday.

Check out yesterday’s stock list – Led by SHOO lots of those “buy the dip” stocks are on fire.

.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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