Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
June 8, 2012

1% get 93%

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
.
Income Inequality
.
.
“2009-2010, the top 1%
.
of US income earners captured
.
93% of the income growth”
.

.
.
.
“America has become a country
.
not “with justice for all,”
.
but rather with favoritism for the rich
,
and justice for those who can afford it
,
– so evident in the foreclosure crisis,
,
in which the big banks believed
.
that they were too big not only to fail,
.
but also to be held accountable.”
.
.
Nobel Prize Winner
.
.
.
******************
.
.
Yankee Bob’s
.

.
The Rifleman, the Virginian, Bonanza, The Big Valley or a number of other Westerns, where a small town where a small town newspaper editor, by himself would take on and defeat Big Vested interests…
.
.
.
********************
.
.
.
Please, Just do what

Ronald Reagan did & his top

economist Milton Friedman

recommends – Stimulate
.
.
LINK to Krugman editorial
.
(See Monday’s 411 for Friedman recommendation)
.
.
The Money Quote
.
.
“As many economists have pointed out,
.
America is currently suffering from
.
a classic case of
.
debt deflation:
all across the economy people are
.
trying to pay down debt by
.
slashing spending,
.
but, in so doing,
.
they are causing a depression
.
that makes their debt problems
.
even worse.”
.
.
******************
.
China’s Growth
.
.

.
.
6 Charts all showing

a slowdown

in China’s Growth

(See Link above for more)

.
Across the world

when Economic times get tough

You do NOT impose

AUSTERITY

You STIMULATE the Economy
.
Exception -

USA’s Right wing austerity dogma
.

  • Major news from China is surprise [STIMULUS] interest rate cut. Short term juice for stocks but Long term = Chinese economic slowdownBearish
  • Repeat – “411 currently uses the yield of the 10 year Spanish bond as a leading indicator of market direction – Our canary in a Coal mine. - Bond yield up= stocks down”

Past quote on

Long Term Outlook

.

“No changes in LTO considered

till Spanish bonds at least close

below at 6.25%.

.

  • Let’s have  at least a 3 to 5 days of yields remaining below 6.25% before we upgrade to NEUTRAL.
  • The ugly Fundamental reality in Europe can overwhelm Central Bank intervention/manipulation.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH/

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
May 2, 2012

Beating the S&P Again

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

.

The Correlation is

Awesome

.

The More US globalized Companies

Invest in

Brutal Dictators and

their Cheap Labor Force,

the higher US Stocks Go


Blind Chinese

Democracy Dissident

.

.

Chen Guangcheng

.

Gangs of thugs brutally beat his family and friends, yet some how Chen managed to escape. Now he is  being hospitalized.

.

..

Why is it that instead of passionately

backing freedom and democracy

.

  • The Obama administration is walking on eggshells over this?
  • Right wingers aren’t screaming “commie bastards”?

.

Why?

.

.

  1. China owns over A Trillion+ dollars of US Debt?
  2. US globalized companies from Apple to Walmart hire millions of Chinese workers?
  3. US taxes Chinese imports at a rock bottom 2.5%, while they tax ours at 25%?
  4. China floods the USA with lower cost imports?
  5. The more US companies invest in China, the higher their stock prices go?
  6. US companies desperately want to expand in China?
  7. ALL OF THE ABOVE!

.

.

_________________

.

US Global Companies

Sure Love Their Dictators

.

.

US companies are calling for and end to sanctions against the brutal dictatorship and Resource rich country of Myanmar

.

A show of Hands

.

.

Think the Myanmar news

will make mainstream media?

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

Trends

.

Notice similarity to Monday’s blog. These trends impacting global stock markets are becoming STRONGER.

  • Earning Result are virtually over. Usually better than expected results, were mush better than expected. Expansion of US companies in China played a major role in earnings results
  • Europe – Major trend is many European economies are rejecting sever austerity measures.  Germany (who has the most to lose) is fighting the tide. Story
  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates [411 uses this as a critical measurement of European/world stock market stability] have stabilized over last three weeks just under 6% danger zone.
  • Spanish bond rates rising this AM to 5.85% at 6:00 AM EDT.
  • McCellan Oscillator [411 very successful technical tool in market direction - Tops/bottoms] is at +35.50. Closer to overbought than oversold, but still NEUTRAL

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

..


Can the US market Rally despite the problems

in just about every other major world market?

.

  • Dow closed at its highest in 4 years. AAPL was no help.
  • Europe’s canary in the coal mine, Spanish bonds need to stay below 6%. It is. A strong resistance level has been established at 6%.
  • Our Fed’s “Operation Twist” ends in June. Traders/Investors/Manipulators need to see that they will continue liquidity dump.

.

Still looking looking decent for May if we don’t have a Spanish yielded problem.

.

If there is no signs of further Fed liquidity, then the late spring meltdown of past two years will repeat.

.

*************************


.

More Trumpets

.

.

Your Stock List

.

Paul announced the results from

the last stock list in the comments section.

.

.

S&P 500 = -0.75

YSL =  +3.27

.

That makes 8 of the 9

YOUR Stock Lists

Home runs

that beat the S&P.

.

YOUR new Stock List

is in Monday’s blog.

.

Good advice from Paul “Please keep in mind, its earnings season and some of these stocks haven’t reported yet. It’s your responsibility to find out when your stock reports and the earnings estimate. Many of these stocks are currently extended and you should wait for a pull back before a buy.”

YSL Only works because YOU send in a short list of your favorite stock. Look for a discussion of them and stocks in the comments section of blog every day

NB – I do own some of the stocks on YSL

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond yield over 6% =  NEUTRAL

Under 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
April 23, 2012

Greed Eats Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

..

Greed Eats Democracy


.

It Been 23 Years Since China

Massacred Democracy

At Tiananmen Square

.

________________

.

Whose Money Is Nurturing

One Party Communist State?

.

.

Greedy

Oligarchs Love Dictators

and

Hate Democracy

.

A given – Outsourcing – Where US companies send million of jobs overseas because of cheaper labor costs.

  • USAGE was supposed to pay a 35% tax on its $5.1 billion in US profits. Their lobbyists almost own our politicians so instead of paying taxes they have a $3.2 billion tax credit.
  • CHINA – GE pays a full 25% corporate tax in China. Add to that China is the rated second worst country for bribes. We all know major US conglomerates bribe politicians

.

Is GE Alone

Hell NO

.

Hundreds of Major US Companies

Feed the Totalitarian

One Party Chinese State

.

FAIRNESS

.

.

US Corporations give in to the

Chinese Dictatorship

who, with their help, will soon

rule the world

.

Why can’t they pay

more of their fair share here?

.

Choose

.

GREED or DEMOCRACY

..

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

France/ the Dutch

Austerity or Taxes?

Dragging Stocks DOWN

.

  • Major European markets are down early (6:00 AM EDT - 1.67% to 2.67% ) on news from France, Netherlands and a Spanish Bond Rate over 6.00%. [Check out Link for latest]
  • Elections in France went badly for Sarkozy (center right). Winner – Hollande (center left). Better than expected – Anti Immigration/Euro – (far right) Most see Hollande winning the May 6th run off between him and Sarkozy – BBC report
  • FYI – Hollande wants to consider raising the top tax rate to 75% in France instead of making more and larger spending cuts. Contrast with Obama’s rise to 30% (Buffett Rule)

.

For Investors/Traders

How to Play Europe’s

Political/Economic Problems

.

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

The USA currently has the most positive outlook of all the major economies.

.

We are being dragged down by Japan (natural disaster), and Europe. Hard to call what’s happening in China – but hard to imagine 8 to 9% GDP growth continue.

Our top technical indicator –  McClellan Oscillator is at -8.22. Lots of room till we get to oversold or overbought = NEUTRAL

..

  • From Friday – Holding a full boat of long positions is problematic until another liquidity dump by Central Banks.”
  • From Friday -“ Short term play - Short - France, BNP and related banks may have some more short term downside them.” Those of you who shorted the rally in BNP and related banks should get rewarded today. This, also may turn into a position that could last through France’s May 6th election and beyond.
  • Reality – What is a short term negative for stocks is NOT bad for long term economics. If you impose too much austerity, the unemployment rate skyrockets, creating fewer taxpayers and more in need of welfare of incarceration.

  • From Friday – High risk trade – If APPL keeps going down, I may purchase some before earnings or in a dip after earnings.” Still an option. Reasoning – Hopefully AAPL will drop to a technical support level [See Paul's comments] That, and the fact that an earnings miss seems to be getting baked into its Tuesday earnings reports, puts the odds (especially for traders) in your favor.

.

*************************

.

PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Looking at the futures, it appears it’s going to be a down day. French elections show France is about to come to its senses and toss out the austerity regime. It looks like the great unwashed really don’t like what they see in the banksta controlled Europe.

Dr Jeffrey Scott, an HGSI user, last night hosted a great Sunday evening webinar (which I posted a link to Friday and Saturday in the comments section). Great review of the condition of the market and an excellent AAPL chart review. I trust some of you folks caught the webinar.

I posted the following chart review of Your Stock List Saturday for you weekend stock addicts, in case you slept in here is a repeat.

NOTE: at the start of each month we review Your Stock List for additions and deletions, kindly make any suggestions that you might have for the list via email to Barr.

.

TRADERS

.

CMG – Broke the 17 Friday after it’s earnings release was not well received, buy the dip? See comment:

DLTR – great chart, continues toward the BIG dollar in the sky!  Slightly extended. Using the Ian Woodward/HGSI proprietary “High Jump Indicator” I estimate  DLTR will be an “extended stock” in the area of 101 to 106. at which point you’ll probably will get a pull back or basing.

ENB – 52 week high,

FAST – broke down through the 50, HGSI indicators are red

FL – basing, on the 17

HD – excellent tight chart, buy any dip market conditions permitting

IBM – looks like a bit of profit taking from the old dog. ALL HGSI indicators are red, below the 50.

IMAX – HGSI indicators have turned red, two red/down Kahuna’s the past few days, sitting below lower Bollinger Band, needs to cross up through the middle BB (25.74) before a buy is “safe”.  ** Previous comment from beginning of the month remains, middle of BB is now 23.80.

KLAC – basing on the 17

LEN – great earnings report, gapped up yesterday, buy any pull back. ** Previous comment from beginning of the month, LEN promptly broke down with the market and now sitting on the 50, if it holds above the 50 may be buyable IF housing reports start to improve.

MA – tight chart, buy any dip, buy any dip market conditions permitting

MNST – what a monster of a chart, buy any dip! ** Previous comment from beginning of month remains!

SWI – basing on the 50 & 17, free parking as they say!

TSCO – nice tight chart, buy any dip, buy any dip market conditions permitting

URI – nice $4 pop on earnings release.

WATCHERS

.

AKRX – sitting  below the 50 and crossed up through the 17 Friday, basing, HGSI indicators turning green.

BKI – woof!

KOG – below the 50, below the 17

RYL – sitting below the 50 and the 17, LEN has a better chart and that chart isn’t much better.

DUMPSTERS


SIMO – gapped up on a story of AAPL semi chips being in short supply

CATM – woof, woof, woof!

FTK – buy at your own risk.

Disclaimer - all comments for education only, buy or trade at your own risk. At time of writing I don’t own any of the stocks listed and have been 100% in cash for the past 3 weeks.

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond over 6% = Changed to NEUTRAL

.

This has happened.

Add To This

Continued Meltdown in

European Markets.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.


NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
April 13, 2012

99% Spring

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

.

.
.
There’s 1000+ different mettings across America this weekend. Primarily organizing over
.
.
Democracy &
.
Income Inequality
.
.
Obviously, the 99% Spring is left of center groups and may not be your cup of tea. (pun intended)
.
To learn more and find a gathering point
in your state/town this weekend
.
.
.
.
Enter Zip code and distance from Home
in appropriate spaces for a meeting near you.
.
(currently set for 5 miles from my house)
.
.
.
.
Don’t know if Elizabeth Warren is associated with
99% Spring, but like reason 202 her quote is about
.
.
What Kind of
.
Democracy YOU Want
.
.
.
.
Thanks to frequent commenters George, Popeye and CDB for requesting I post something on this.
.
.
********************
********************
,

STOCKS

.

China

and  more problems

.

.

Due to Limited Time this AM

Refer to yesterday’s blog for Data Links.

.

  • China – Many investors talked up China’s GDP numbers yesterday (see Paul’s comments). They came in at 8.1% which is a slight bit less than what was expected, but way under the wished for number.
  • At 8:00 AM EST Spanish and Italian bonds are down slightly (@-1.00%)

  • GOOG went nowhere on its earning report. JPM & WFC beat expectations (nothing outstanding) – LINK
  • These are all major fundamentals that range from neutral (JPM) to very negative (China and more important)

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

Not good stock news this AM so

If we can hold onto most of yesterday’s gains

its bullish

******************

,

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Less Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



  • Share/Save/Bookmark
March 29, 2012

We The People

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

We The People

.

By Yankee Bob

.

For me the Big Change happened when  Katrina was being tracked into the Gulf
.
It was obvious that New Orleans was going to take a big hit and basically, our Federal government did not respond.
.

.
Not pre land fall when evacuation was an option. Not after the flood when  conditions were dire.

But when the US government let a major American city drown and did not mobilize to help out.  The press played the game of “how could we have known such a bad thing would happen?”

No one ever posted the banner headline,
.
” Citizens, you’re on your own!”
.
The government under GW helped to empty New Orleans of poor blacks. Indefensible! We began the era of “You’re on your own.”

No more of the Government is here to help you and we are all in this together.  No more we can do anything. We left the era of, we can and we will and began the era of…
.
we will help corporations and the rich
.
But buddy, you’re on your own.

.
.


Because of an attack from some of the most backward people on earth, the USA has become a Police State.
.
When you create laws that push aside the constitutional rights in the Bill of Rights, and throw out the Geneva Convention, then you live in a Police State that is no longer a democracy.

Now the press and Congress accept the loss of due process and the right to protest and free speech and protection from unreasonable search and detention.


.
.

In a democracy you have Rights that exist aside from the prerogative of whoever controls the apparatus of the State. And as long as those rights are protected,the will of the people is enacted.

  • The people want a fair tax deal where corporations and the rich pay their fair share.
  • The people want the wars ended.
  • The people want the unfair tax breaks for companies ended.
  • The people want to see alternative and decentralized energy bloom.
  • The people want women’s reproductive rights and health protected.
  • The people want the right to join in class action lawsuits against corporations.
  • The people want our social programs to expand not contract.
If we are such a beacon of Democracy, then why can’t we have any of this? We thought the Age of Greed ended a century or more ago.
.
We ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
.
Yankee Bob

*****************

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

_____________

.

Mr Central Bank

.

.

.

  • Mr Central Bank, Ben Bernanke went on ABC Tues. night, but did not talk about  more stimulus. Results – Stocks drop.
  • Best Story out thereHigh Class Spanish Hookers refuse to sleep with Bankstas unless the get loans.
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -26.47(for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) MO now = NEUTRAL

.

TROUBLE Ahead

.

Short term, some problems ahead because of the Italian bond yield moving off the 4.84% yield low up to 5.20%.

No where near the 7.00% danger zone, but the two+ week rally higher has traders worried that the European Central Bank might be loosing some control.

In a Central Bank manipulated market, you want yields stable or moving down.

.

______________

.

Bankstas

.

.

As Investors411 readers realize Bakstas no longer practice capitalism, but run a massive, unregulated casino or derivatives market where gains are privatized  for them and you  socialize the risk.

.

&

.

As Congressman Duncan Hunter says –

“for all practical purposes many US corporations have become Chinese Corporations”

.

We all know Bakstas in the USA have little incentive to shower Americans with loans – But guess who is getting lots of helpwith mortgage money for loans by US Banks?

.

China & BAC

.

State run China’s Construction Bank,  just announce a 25.5% increase in profits – $26.9 billion.

10% of  the biggest home lender in China is owned by Bank of America.

.

**********************

.

Paul’s Corner

.

.

Buongiorno!

.

Most of the members of Your Stock List behaved yesterday, some down and some up, here are a few to note:

AKRX – closed under the 50, under pressure

IMAX – under continued pressure

KOG – dropped below the 50 with high volume

URI – YSL member United Rentals report and video from CNBC – While the economic downturn has been difficult for a wide range of companies, it’s been somewhat of a boon for United Rentals. The company has prospered as construction companies rent its equipment rather than buy equipment outright.

See the CNBC Video:

Here’s a curious irony about the energy market: The greatest threat to the future growth of the U.S. solar market is sustained low natural gas prices, which continue to hit fresh decade lows this week. Every day of $2.25 natural gas spot prices or below is another day to expect natural gas power plants to replace the dying coal plant fleet, and that makes for a tougher case when utilities need to argue in support of solar power deployment.

2 Big Falling Knives in the Energy Market

The Banks stock appear to be  moving, check out a Paul’s Corner Extra posted in the comments section last evening.

Link:

The energy, material and utilities are under pressure, the following link is to a spread sheet I created using EdgeRater Software, showing the various sector moves as of the March 28 close:

LINK

All comments are for education only and you are foolish to trade on anything I suggest! If I failed to comment on a stock on Your Stock List, it doesn’t mean it’s safe to own or needs to be sold, that’s up to you to figure out!

.

**********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
March 23, 2012

Santorum Shocks

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

.

Santorum Shocker

.

.

“Obama’s Better Than

Etch A Sketch Romney”

.

Have you ever seen a major candidate from one party say the other party’s candidate (Obama) would make a better president?

.

Lead story/interview from  NBC More from Huffington Post More from CBS

Why the “Etch A Sketch” Label will stick - Time Magazine’s Joe Klein

.

.

Romney, spent yesterday emphasizing that the bailout save the USA from a

“full scale depression.”

Bush, Paulson, Bernanke and a majority of Dems supported the bailout.

.

*******************

.

A Personal Note

.

.

Serial Misogynist

Rush Limbaugh

.

As CDB says in the comments section of the blog – “few have problems with those who make one or a few politically incorrect statements.” True.

.

Personally, I have a wife, daughters and grand daughter and I am going to defend them to my utmost ability against anyone who dehumanizes and objectifies them. Especially, someone who continually does this day after day, after day.

Bullies wont stop unless YOU take a stand.

.

******************

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

Headline

.

openingimage

.

China

Is The Bubble Bursting?

(Photo from ETF Digest)

.

  • The possibility of a hard landing as the Chinese economy slows down became more real yesterday. This sent shivers to stock markets around the world. Story from International Business Times
  • Its a bit surprising that US stocks fell as little (@-0.5%) as they did (lighter volume too) on the China news.
  • More confirmation of a hard landing for the Chinese economy would have a negative impact on US and world equities.
  • The major fundamental behind stocks remainsCentral Banks printing money and low interest rates. It forces money/people that want a higher rate of return into stocks and other riskier assets.

Therefore a Long Term Bullish Bias

______________

.

.

Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -49.53. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) MO approaching oversold territory = NEUTRAL/bullish
  • 6 month chart of MO. From two days ago - “The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms. However,…the chart  looks like we maybe heading down the next few days. Would love to see a dip low enough (past-60) for a clearer MO buy signal.”

.

______________

.

.

Canary in a Coal Mine

.

Investors411 uses two gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield up again  to 5.16% (7:15 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone, but its started to rally again
  • Reports out of Spain (the second largest European country in trouble) are worsening. Rising to 5.49% rate at yesterday’s close.
  • Our USA canary in the coal mine - The US ten year T bill broke out of its trading range two weeks ago. Hardly something to worry about yet. Rates have fallen last two days to  2.27% yield. But rising rates is something to keep an eye on.

_____________

.

.

Reading Tea Leaves


Bottom Line – From two days ago “The rally off the last dip is cooling off…. So this does look like a ”healthy”rest for stocks. If our MO goes low enough, perhaps a buy the dip situation will arise.”

We have had warnings of a fundamental shift in China. How dramatically and/or fast China slows down is significant. Probably not a concern, because China will manufacture (lie or exaggerate) about data. But something to keep an eye on.

Still looking for the MO to drop low enough to “buy the dip.”

.

********************

.

YOUR Stock List

.

A week or two ago Paul Listed some of the stocks in YSL #8 that had become potential “Buy The Dip Candidates.”

Your never near 100% (unless your a HFT trader), but there have been, as Popeye would say,  some

.

Winner Winner

Chicken Diner Stocks.

.

  • FT - Footlocker - chart
  • CMG – Chipoltechart
  • DLTR – Dollar Tree – chart

Considering three down days in a row,

The Results Deserve some

Trumpets

.

There’s more – Review the whole list here (March 12th blog – scroll down)

Check out the comments section of blog for more.

_________

.

A Special Shout Out to George

who suggested buying Etch a Sketch Stock two Days ago

Etch a Sketch stock (Ohio Art OART:OTC US) went from $4.00 to $12.50 yesterday. This is one very small company. Proving, once again, how important fundamentals are to stock prices.


..

**********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


  • Share/Save/Bookmark
March 22, 2012

War on Women

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

.

War On Women

.

Photo is Link to 60 second video

Extended Cut (96 seconds) here

Video’s speak for themselves. Spread them. If you use Facebook – A Link

From men telling women what to do with their bodies to women earning  75% of what men do,…

.

Discrimination still exist.

.

*****************

.

Romney’s Platform Like

Etch-A-Sketch

Shake it up & Start over again

.

Mitt Romney Etch A Sketch

.

All politicians change positions, But…

Mitt Romney

has, become the poster boy for

.

Flip Flops

.

The Romney campaign’s senior advisor  told the media that Romney’s campaign positions were like “Etch A Sketch.”

They would wipe the slate clean and start all over again in the general election. From Politico the storyincludes clips from original statement, Santorum/Gingrich response, Democrats response and analysis.

.

How would you feel if the advice given in Investors411 was NOT what I really believed?


Thanks to George for the heads up on this.

..

*******************

.

STOCKS


.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol..

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

Headline

.

.

Movie – Hunger Games

.

Maybe you’re one of the 26 million who have read the books,

If not, this weekends movie will help you understand the above photo

.

  • Check out chart of Lions Gate, the producer of Hunger Games. The movie is in 3D. So, YSL 2012 stock IMAX may benefit. Avatar was a much better movie in 3D. Judging from the previews It’s hard to see a big upside IMAX stock move happening because of Hunger Games. Maybe a smaller move.
  • Bottom LineThe three day rally in Lion’s Gate shows FUNDAMENTALS (Lions Gate new movie) are the engines that drive stock prices.  Everything from our Old faithful MO to astrology may offer guidelines or warning signs, but fundamentals rule.
  • The major fundamental behind stocks is Central Banks printing money and low interest rates. It forces money/people that want a higher rate of return into stocks and other riskier assets.


Therefore a Long Term Bullish Bias

______________

.

.

Old Faithful

McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -25.00. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) NO technical pressure on  either bears and bulls = NEUTRAL
  • 6 month chart of MO. From Yesterday – The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms. However,…the chart  looks like we maybe heading down the next few days. Would love to see a dip low enough (past-60) for a clearer MO buy signal.”

.

______________

.

.

Canary in a Coal Mine

.

Investors411 uses two gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield up  to 5.07% (6:00 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone, but its started to rally again
  • Our USA canary in the coal mine - The US ten year T bill broke out of its trading range over a week. Hardly something to worry about yet with at a low 2.29% yield. But rising rates is something to keep an eye on.

_____________

.

Bottom Line – The rally off the last dip is cooling off.  Fundamentals have NOT dramatically shifted. So this does look like a “healthy” rest for stocks. If our MO goes low enough, perhaps a buy the dip situation will arise.

.

********************

.

Paul’s Corner

.

.

AAPL, AAPL, AAPL, AAPL

I gotta buy AAPL,

I just hafta buy AAPL!

.

Gee it’s worth more than the coffers of Mitt Romney, more than Rush Limbaugh, it’s the most valuable company in the world I just need to buy.

Or do I? Let’s be old fashioned and take a look at the chart. I know some folks don’t see the sense at looking at a chart, why look at a chart when it’s a company like AAPL? The AAPL store is standing room only and the customers go around the block so why look at the chart?

EW asked a few days ago “what’s an extended stock?”. Well EW AAPL is a perfect example of an extended stock, in fact it’s a very extended stock.

Being extended doesn’t matter, it’s APPL! Oh really? Well let’s take a look at AAPL’s chart, yeah yeah, I know you don’t need to check the chart, it’s AAPL.

A stocks chart is a history lesson of its performance over time. One of the first things to check when looking at a stock chart is how far it’s from its moving averages, and the typical moving averages used are the 17, 50 and 200 DMA’s.

The following chart shows under what conditions a stock is extended, is dangerous to buy and should be watched closely for profit taking by the institutions.

LINK

So EW, please be so kind and get out your pocket calculator and tell us if it’s dangerous to buy AAPL at this point.

And the answer is?

While we patiently wait for EW to find the calculator, I have an easier way to check a stock extension. Using the proprietary Ian Woodward indicator available on HGSI software we can pictorially chart a stocks extension and evaluate if it’s safe to buy or even own a stock.

LINK

This indicator in the top of this chart shows the stocks extension from its moving averages, the 17, 50 and 200. The top thin blue line is the sum of all three and we call it the High Jump Indicator. History shows in the recent past how high above its averages AAPL gets and corrects. As you can see AAPL is roughly double its historical point of correction and if history is correct, AAPL will correct.

So my friends, is it safe to buy AAPL at this time?

.

**********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
December 23, 2011

Ron Paul/Michael Moore

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

From Investors411


********************

.

Michael Moore is A Whimp

So is the Left in the USA



Thumbnail


Why? They didn’t produce

This Video Ron Paul did.

Ron Paul also recognizes its the shadow financials that are crushing the USA. His solution – return to a gold standard and eliminate the Fed would solve the problem, but create a world wide depression.

Instead we need a Teddy Roosevelt to reestablish our rules, regulators, break up too big to fail banks & a government that does not go to war and cut taxes.

Right now we are playing financial football without most of the rules and far less referees. Pure Free Market Capitalism is playing the same financial  football game without any rules or referees.


********************

.

STOCKS

.

.

Neuschwanstein Castle – Germany

The Bulls are Back – Yesterday marked the second technical confirmation of  Torrid Tuesday US equities held onto or added to their gains.

The Prime catalyst mentioned yesterday was the European Central Bank giving $647 billion in low interest loans to over 532 banks.

As Popeye points out in the Comments section


Banks get Bailed Out

We get Sold Out


To keep the crony under regulated opaque crony capitalist system alive, European Banks are getting bailed out. They are the ones who made most of  the bad loans (bought the bonds) to  a handful of troubled European countries.  These financials made the loans because they could repackage them into “financial weapons of mass destruction” – credit default swaps.

The people of Europe get the higher taxes, job loses and cuts in government programs.


Sound familiar?


There are two solutions to this problem – Or its going to keep happening again and again.

  • Ron Paul’s – Blowup the Fed and go on the gold standard
  • Create real regulation, enoough real regulators and eliminate too big to fail shadow financials & opaque markets.

Repeat  - Bottom Line - This is a manipulated market. The ECB in what may just be the first of many loans has made an impact. Bulls Rule

Overnight Data From Europe


Germany’s DAX

Gapped up at open, lost @1/2 and fell to +0.38 at –  at 6:40 AM EST

Other major European Indexes doing better.

DAX at  +0.20% at 8:45 EST

Italian 10 year bond

Opened at 6.96% - 2:30 AM EST

Fell to 6.90% at 6:45 AM EST

Italian bond at 6.94% at 8:45 AM EST

.

********************

.

Paul’s Corner

One of the things I love about the HGSI software is the various searches I look at nightly occasionally spit out stocks I have never heard of and may do that for several days in a row. BKI has been appearing repeatedly for days now.

BKI Buckeye Technologies Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of cellulose-based specialty products. It operates in two segments, Specialty Fibers and Nonwoven Materials. The Specialty Fibers segment offers chemical cellulose, customized fibers, and fluff pulp derived from wood and cotton cellulose materials using wetlaid technology. The Nonwovens Materials segment provides airlaid nonwoven materials derived from wood pulps, synthetic fibers, and other materials using airlaid technology. The company?s products are used in various applications, such as disposable diapers, personal hygiene products, engine air and oil filters, food casings, rayon filament, acetate plastics, thickeners, and papers. Buckeye Technologies Inc. markets and sells its products directly through its sales force, as well as through sales agents primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and South America. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

Ok big deal, a pulp mill? Interesting stuff made from wood scrap I’d burn for heat in the winter. But in an investment world of Smart Phones, flash drives, AAPL, ZNGA, why the decent chart and recent chart acceleration?

The following article surfaced yesterday and might explain the move. LINK

BKI broke out nicely yesterday from a nice 8 week base. Some of the move was probably generated from this article. Although it is somewhat thinly traded at 400,000 shrs a day, all of my favorite HGSI chart indicators are green. Even with yesterday’s pop, BKI is not over extended at the moment. If one is to trade this stock it might be beneficial to watch chart action for a few days and one shouldn’t typically trade at the open, the morning after a decent pop like it had the day before.

Several other stocks in the pulp wood group are looking good too. For your evaluation here are the other stocks within this group.

BKI

MERC

FBR

CLW

IP

WPP

INDEX

MWV

NP

UFS

SPP

GLT

ABH

VRS

KS

SWM

ONP

Note, stocks are listed in an HGSI Top Down Analysis sort from 12/22. This sort can and does change every day. The chart and the fundies should be one’s guide to stock selection.

My good friend Ian Woodward posted an excellent late night blog last evening and gave some good thought as to the current market and what to look for if this Santa Claus rally is to continue. Be sure to read it!

LINK

It’s 7 AM as I write this morning; ABC Good Morning America just came on and at the open they featured soldiers coming home from Iraq. It sure is nice this horror story is “some what” over.

Merry Christmas All!

Disclaimer, all comments are for education only and are not meant as stock buy or sell recommendations.

********************

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose to +34.86 . 50DMA at +5.88 = NEUTRAL/bearish

We’re on the cusp of moderately overbought, but no where near clear reversal territory.

See past Investors411 for all the other bullish factors influencing the market this week.

__________

The fact that the ECB is making very low interest rates yo 500+ European banks takes some heat off of Europe and mitigates the Italian Problem. If Italy goes into “controlled bankruptcy” it’s impact on European banks will be less devastating.

__________

The 7.00% rate on the Italian 10 year is still significant, but less so after the ECB intervention. The 6.94% proximity to 7.00% is the only thing holding back another major rally today.

__________

For more information on trading strategies see STRATEGY Section of blog.

.

********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

The Bulls are back (see above)

Upgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

We have been on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for almost a month.  So its subject to change. Both Neutral and Cautiously Bullish are favorable for longer term investments. Obviously one is more favorable than the other.


CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



  • Share/Save/Bookmark
December 21, 2011

Heroes Part 2

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

Heroes

Part 2

Obama’s new CIA Director General

David Petraeus


Petraeus when asked – Who would be your person of the year? – answered Mohammed Brouazizi The Tunisian street vendor whose immolation sparked the Arab Spring. He also gave a nod to Steve Jobs.

What Petraeus has taught is the brute force, so beloved by the right wing and military industrial complex, doesn’t work. In Iraq progress was made when Petraeus endorsed sitting down and talking with former enemies and turning them against those who opposed US forces.

Winning the hearts and minds of an opposing side works far better than  brute force which created more terrorists.

_________________

.

Jon HuntsmanJo

Jon Huntsman


John Huntsman, a true conservative, has taken some outstanding positions is his fight for the Republican nomination for President.

He believes in science – global warming (see below).

As former ambassador to China he understands foreign policy. Huntsman opposes Mitt Romney’s use of brute force and taking China in front of the world court on day 1 of your presidency. It’s  a horrible idea.  It would create a trade war that would lead to a massive recession or world wide depression.

But, by far his most outstanding attribute is Huntsman is the only candidate, including Obama, that has a clear and workable

plan to break up the too big to fail banks.

LINK to his plan

Obama’s plan leaves big shadow banks up to regulators under the weak Dodd/Frank legislation. Matt Taibbi and others have often pointed out regulators are corrupted by those they regulate as easily as congress is by lobbyist.


******************

.

Systemic Disaster


If a systemic plant wide catastrophe worries you in the slightest

DO NOT

Read this article

Continue to ignore the continuous stream of giant bursting bubbles of methane gas as they erupt into our atmosphere all across vast sections of the globe.

You can see them, smell them, die from inhaling methane gas

But do they really don’t exist?

Ignore  the science and reality that your children will have to face or read the article.



*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

Neuschwanstein Castle – Germany


Torrid Tuesday’s


Yesterday’s sleeping kitty woke up to and in bright red numbers showed you the decline of the 10 year Italian bond, explained how it was linked to the market and the end result was another Torrid Tuesday for stocks.

The other strong influence on US stocks is currently what happens to the stock market most powerful economy in Europe – Germany.

Commodities like oil (+3.74%) and copper (+4.84%) did better than most stocks. So both the significant bond and major commodities confirmed the stock move higher. A bullish sign

_____________


Very positive long term move by Fed - “Fed Bolsters Tools To Avert Collapse of Big Firms[Banks]

The number one focus should be having NO too big to fail institutions. Number 2 is you don’t want big institutions to collapse – so you demand better regulations, regulators and more liquidity.

_____________


Bottom LineThis is a manipulated market and IF those Italian 10 year bond rate keeps falling, the very real Santa Clause effect (scroll down at link for cause of Santa clause rally) should dominate.


Overnight Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX

Gapped up at open and has fallen @0.60 off its high to +0.90% at –  at 6:00 AM EST

DAX at -o,63 at 8:30 EST

Italian 10 year bond

Opened at 6.69% – 2:30 AM EST

Fell to 6.45% 3:30 AM EST

Rallied back to 6.65% at 6:00 AM EST

Italian bond at 6.84% at 8:30 AM EST



.

********************

.

Paul’s Corner

The Charts!

A wild up day yesterday and if what we hear, or don’t hear out of Europe is correct, we might see this rally continue for a day or so. Wouldn’t that be new!

A brief look at YSL charts. Immediately after the symbol is a capital letter A to D indicating accumulation to distribution.  A Accumulation, B Accumulation, C Neutral/Dist., D Distribution.

AKRX (A) Excellent chart, buy any dip

CATM (B) Ok chart, all indicators green

CMG ( C )  basing chart sitting on the 50, aka free parking

DECK (D) broken chart, all indicators red, buy at your own risk

DLTR (B) Ok chart

FTK ( C ) Good chart, going through a buy the dip

HANS (B) Ok chart, buy any dip

HLF (D) declining chart, below the 200, needs to cross up through the 50 for a safe buy

IBM (D) sitting on the 50 in a dip, chart indicators have turned red

IMAX ( C ) climbing chart, below the 200, sitting on the 50

MA (D) Ok chart, buy any dip, above the 50 and the 17.

RL (D)  declining chart, most indicators red

SIMO (B) good chart, trying to break out of a 2 month base, all indicators green

SWI (D) in a dip and not necessarily a buy the dip position, needs time for chart to improve before a buy

TSCO ( C ) basing chart, sitting on the 50, aka free parking

Chart observations are just that, observations and are not buy or sell recommendations!

The winter solstice tomorrow at 12:22 AM,  the days are getting longer and summer is on the way!  Happy trades!


********************

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose from -41 to +0.67 . 50DMA at +7.48NEUTRAL

The -41 reading (= moderately oversold) at the start of yesterday’s trading gave some fuel to the bulls. The MO Index in NEUTRAL shows no advantage for bulls or bears.

For more information on trading strategies see STRATEGY Section of blog.

Italian bonds are on a huge roller coaster this AM. Big move down and back up. Any yield above 6.75% is a danger zone and , of course 7.00% is the panic number.

Secondary indicators like the VIX and a low Put/Call Ratio are showing investors are expecting a rally to materialize.

Short term – Investors411 is sticking with what works – The yield on the 10 year Italian bond. There is a bullish bias, but it will get trumped by the rising price of the Italian 10 year bond. Bears Rule Today – unless the Italian bond falls.

Longer TermThe world needs to find a way to come up a huge some of money to cover the European debt problem (perhaps $4 trillion). We have NOT.

.

********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

NEUTRAL

.

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 9, 2011

Popping Bubbles

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Popping Bubbles


Bubble Myths – Economics


Nations with More Deregulation Grow Faster

FALSE


The rhetoric – Campaign mantra of the right wing  is to cut regulations and the economy will grow and jobs will be created.


Let’s Pop This Bubble


Stephen Gandel from this week‘s Time magazine (sorry no link to the charts in Time) has an excellent short editorial on this. Using IMF & OEDC data he shows.

  • The USA is one of the most business friendly countries (lack of regulations, taxes, time to start a business…) In fact we are rated #4 of 183 countries.
  • USA GDP has grown +15% over the last 5 years (ending in 2010 & compounded)
  • China is one of the least business friendly countries  - biggest bureaucracy in the world – it takes 311 days longer to build a warehouse there than the rest of the world and the communist party has its hand in every transaction.
  • Companies spend 2600 hours a year complying with Brazil’s tax code. Another least friendly business country.
  • China’s compounded growth rate for the last 5 years is 160%, Brazil’s 135%
  • The list goes on and on -Least business friendly countries – Russia,Indonesia, India, Brazil, Argentina etc all have significantly higher growth rates than business friendly countries like the – USA, UK, South Korea, Canada, Germany.

Deregulation has, at best, a miniscule positive impact on Jobs and Economic growth. Just compare China and Brazil to the USA.


******************

PhotoEssay from We are the 99%

LINK

I am a 24 year old disabled=

He’s not Alone – From CNBC

50% of all US Mortgages Effectively Underwater.


********************


STOCKS


The Super Computer from Space Odyssey

or

An HFT Super Computer


“What’s behind That Wild Final Hour of Trading” The answer from CNNMoney’s Maureen Farrell is “rebalancing of leveraged ETF’s” Something Paul has warned us about. Let’s expand on this to understand the full dynamics of what’s happening.

  • US markets open in big volume, (first 1/2 hr.) focused on events that happened since the close. Currently the Euro Zone is creating the most significant events.
  • Trading, volume, in general, dries up during the day
  • A little after 1:00PM EST many stock traders (based in NYC) come back from lunch and an afternoon trend starts to establish itself.
  • This is when the algorithms of the High Frequency Traders Stars to kick in.
  • All the managers of the leveraged ETF’s see they are out of balance.  So do the super computers of the HFT’s. The race is on and the volume explodes sending stocks on meltups or meltdowns.

The Below chart is from Dave Fry’s ETF’s Digest

Yesterday’s Market


He gives more credit to HFT’s reacting to news (Italy) and I give more credit to imbalances. Whose right? You’d have to know all the different algo’s HFT’s use.  Fry also has an HFT Alert

SPY 5 MINUTE


********************


Reading The Tea Leaves

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to +38.61. 50DMA at +24.61.NEUTRAL

Some sort of bad news from Europe this AM.

******************


File:Greenmountainlogo.gif

Many of the traders in the comment section have a Put Call  option trade on GMCR.  .  Some details. Most of which were mentioned by folks in the comments section o blog. Thanks to Critic for bring trade to our attention.

  • GMCR today
  • Calls were bought at 72.5 or 75. Puts at 67.5 or 65.
  • Expiration – end of 11/11 or 11/19
  • This is an event driven trade based on GMCR’s earnings report today.
  • If GMCR moves big time in one direction we (I’m in on this trade too) win. Example PCLN close +8.61% higher after its report yesterday.
  • Reasoning – There a huge battle between investors on the direction this stock will take. The earnings report (this evening) will give an indication what will happen. The wrong side will be forced to sell or buy to cover potential losses. So it should have a big move. If not we lose.

Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.


SPY –  stop/loss order at  moved up to 123.6. We will keep moving this stop loss order higher as the SPX moves up. SPY has reached a 5% gain, the time Investors411 takes 1/2 the profits.

Unfortunately, forgot to announce this yesterday so we still have a whole position. Will sell 1/2 position anyway today (see UCO/USO) below

GLD –  DGP is the more risky double long gold ETF. 1/2 position added at 173.85.  Will add more on 2/3+% dip.

FXI – From Yesterday - “It will be added to our portfolio today. Hopefully on a dip.” Added on dip yesterday at 38.12.

GMCR – See above

Considering – oil ETF USO (2x oil prices ETF UCO riskier) This would be a replacement for SPY.

Oil prices will move higher with stocks. Stocks and commodities are closely price correlated. Owning oil also gives you a hedge against an oil supply disruption. Example – gambling site Intrade has about a 25% chance of USA or Israel bombing Iran in the next year. This would send stocks into a meltdown and oil prices into a meltup.

Therefore, an oil ETF is better to own than the SPY that tracks large cap stocks.


*******************

Longer Term Outlook

3+ months


CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

NB – There has been a slight, but significant change to this section. Long Term Outlook has been changed to LongER Term Outlook. The Time period reduced from 3 to 6+ months to 3+ months.

Reasoning –

  • Equities have become more event driven. Euro crisis is the on the surface cause, but the deeper cause is a corrupted over leveraged global financial system that privatizes gains and socializes risk.
  • Both technology and High Frequency Trading (60+% of all trades) have significantly altered trends. HFT’s volumize a trend in either direction. Many trends (not all) have become compacted.

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.


  • Share/Save/Bookmark
Page: /tag/china/ : TestLink1 - TestLink2 - TestLink3