Springtime For Europe Then Reality?

We have another major solution to the Eurozone Crisis. German stock market up 4.84% at 8:20 EST and climbing.  So favorable reviews from Germany should transfer across other stock markets . Globalization at work. NYT’s #1 story today. Two biggest points.

• Greek’s default grows from 21% to 50% on bonds
• A $1.4 trillion bailout package to protect banks from  bad debt of all the debtor countries in Europe.

Zero Hedge (libertarian view) negatively dissects some of the details. - A Farce, & Springtime For Europe then Reality - Citigroup’s conclusion, does a good job at outlining what happened and next steps.

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The Lobbyists Dream Candidate

The lobbyists in Washington have chosen their Dream candidate - Mitt Romney

• He’s raised more lobbyist money than all the other Republican candidates put together
• 6 times the amount Obama raised from Wall Street

Mitt just had another Washington lobbyist fund raiser in DC and the invite list included the “Dozen” Biggest of K Street  lobbyists who run our government. Link and Link and LINK

Obama was the last presidential candidate that K Street showered  a just bit more $ on than the challenger  and the negative results are evident. This time around its not even close.

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STOCKS

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Reading Tea Leaves

• Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator, is at +67.29 - overbought = Bearish.

• Our secondary indicator, the Put Call Ratio is at 1.01 = Neutral.

• The PCR is telling us that the professionals who use the Puts and Calls are Neutral. However, since the 50DMA of the PCP is not at 1.00, but much higher at 1.17 Sentiment = Moderately Bullish

As stated before the events in Europe trump this like they did after the 2008 meltdown.

Then, the MO fluctuated between +110 to +20 for two months. At that time there was the start of a set of solutions led by our Fed and Treasury that lite a fire under stocks for two years.

The MO should reach OMG overbought levels today (over +80). This may slow down the stampede and create some dips to buy.

• Now, it seems like the perception of investors is that  the proposed solution in Europe will do something similar tot he stimulus of 2009

• Stocks, especially financials should do better, but just like 2008 people/taxpayers will suffer in Western Democracies.

• The 25% of global growth this year that comes from China(Time magazine) is critical to bullish trend developing.

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Paul’s Corner

3 Days of Ian Woodward

This past weekend I had the great pleasure of attending the fall HGSI Workshop in Palos Verdes Ca. The workshop featured lecture by Ian Woodward and Ron Brown from HGSI. Let me give you a few of the details.

Ok ok, I can hear the moaning, “Oh no here comes more Ian Woodward and HGSI talk”. Please folks humor me, read on!

Ian and Ron’s discussion lasted for three days. Interspersed throughout the weekend there were several guest speakers who added to the value of the workshop.

Ian showed us his research behind HGSI investing and Ron gave live market demonstrations how to maximize using HGSI.  This meeting really helped us understand the undercurrent of the market. Ron and Ian showed us how to get insight using HGSI and related tools in a predictive manner.

Fred Richards – an HGSI contributor, Harvard Economics Professor and longtime expert investor gave us a great overview of the world economic stage and what to expect going forward.  Fred is a great CANSLIM type investor with decades of experience and great stories. A friend of his when growing up was William O’Neil of Investor’s Business Daily.   It was wonderful hearing Fred and by good fortune I sat next to Fred at dinner Saturday evening. Ian bought dinner for all at a wonderful Mexican restaurant

LINK

Chris White demonstrated his new software EdgeRater 5.0.   Chris demonstrated how using HGSI, one can do an end of day update across the market of index, ETFs and Stocks in just a few key strokes.  Perhaps the greatest benefit of using EdgeRater with HGSI is EdgeRater takes many of the tools developed by Ian and Ron and automates them in EdgeRater giving us a predictive look into the markets.

LINK

Chris Wilson an HGSI user demonstrated his techniques for Pairs trading.  Using HGSI and a non-proprietary set of tools using HGSI, Chris broke new ground with a technique based upon the changes in RS over time between an equity and a comparative index or ETF.

Dr. Jeffrey Scott, an HGSI user, presented stocks for consideration of our next JIRM index, our early warning indicator of a failing market.  For background, check out Ian’s blog, posted on the HGSI website: Stock Market: Doom and Gloom or Plain Sailing? September 25th, 2011.This exercise gave us early insight we are clearly seeing rotation into unusual leaders such as SBUX, KMB and MCD. This rotation reflects the current fear in the marketplace.  This was an excellent lesson in chart reading and fundamental analysis. We ended up selecting 19 high quality leaders in this exercise. Only attendees have this list and if you wish to see it you have to attend a work shop.

LINK

For me the highlight of the workshop was a brief lecture by Gil Morales (author of Trade Like an O’Neill Disciple) to review his tidea on current market conditions and update us on pocket pivots.  Gil was supposed to give an hour discussion but it soon turned into 2 ½ hour lesson of correctly shorting a stock. Gil also painted a concerned picture on the market and gave us some names to consider shorting.  Gil was an analyst for Investors Business Daily. He uses HGSI to scan for pocket pivots. A pocket pivot signal gives a very early signal that a stock is getting ready to break out. I have studied the signals for months now and they do appear to be a very good early indicator.

LINK

My wife joined me on this trip and we took some time touring Pasadena, Hollywood, Beverly Hills and Bellaire. She really enjoyed buying clothes! I was a great weekend.

We all like to talk about our best stock trade. The investment I made this past weekend with respect to time, air fare, hotel, Seminar cost has to be the best stock investment I have ever made. It was an outstanding weekend.

If any of you are serious about developing your trading skills, Ian’s next workshop is scheduled for March 24-26. I encourage you to join us.

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Positions

SPY – (ETF tracks S&P 500 or SPX) bought at 122.5 (See Monday’s blog for details)

Your Stock List#5 - Mea Culpa – Holding stocks through earnings season is always dangerous. 5 of our 14 stocks took  some big earnings hits (one on an analysts downgrade) So Paul & I have decided to drop TSU, RES, CROX, GMCR, & CPHD. Their positions will be closed at end of day. LINK to entire list (scroll down)

Future considerations – SSO (ETF that is @2X SPX) Buy on dip. Investors411 uses a buy the dip strategy in markets that are trending higher.

Bottom Line - It looks like a trend is starting. This is a significant bailout in Europe. There will probably be more. Little discussed China is the key to global growth and this trend developing.  The greatest risk is at the start of a trend, but also the biggest reward. Obviously the trend is NOT solidly in place.

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Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

Last Post For This Week

Disaster Capitalism

Disaster Capitalism [LINK to video]is a term used by Naomi Kline. JS in the comments section of the blog calls it “creative destruction.”

You create an economic disaster. and use the disaster not fix the causes of the problem, but to create a new economic structure.

• Trillions spent on foreign wars
• Trillions spent to fix disaster created by shadow banking system (bailouts, QE’s, Stimulus.etc)
• Trillions spent on Bush tax cuts that give great benefits to wealthiest Americans

The bait and switch -  The current case is, obviously, to obsess on the debt and ignore the clear and present economic and jobs crisis

The corporate oligarchy uses disasters, their media, their lobbyists who own politicians to enhance globalized corporate wealth and devastate Main Street America.  The debt crisis provides a perfect cover for this to continue.

A Supposed American Icon Apple Computer

Example - Wildly profitable AAPL has been expanding massively in China. Foxconn,  the largest manufacturing company in the world and of AAPL products treats people like machines.

• AAPL, while we have been fixated on wars and economic crisis, has been steadily outsourcing  jobs mainly to Foxconn and other foreign entities.

• Labor is a fraction of the price, there are no pensions, no health care, and no benefits.

• The Chinese peg their currency 50% of the USA’s. We have a 2.5% tax on Chinese goods and they have a 25% tax on our goods. This gives a huge added incentive to manufacture in China. All our polls allow this because they are dominated by the corporate oligarchy the profits from this.

The end result in a post Steve Jobs Apple will be moving even the corporate headquarters to China, because that’s where all the jobs and new consumers will be.

In the short term, globalized companies may take a hit if the US defaults, but this will also give them cover to send more jobs abroad or force the same economic conditions on US workers that the Chinese have.

These actions (from outsourcing to trade/tax policies) are being repeated by all major globalized US companies with the help of the vast majority of US politicians including POTUS.

How you can adapt to creative destruction/disaster capitalism – Learn Mandairin and how to bow to Chinese/corporate masters.

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A better example would have been the bait and switch of US shadow banksters, but Investors411 has covered this topic many times.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.73%	up
NASDQ	-0.10%	up
S&P 500	-0.41%	up
Russell 2000	-0.79%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• AAPL, up eight days in a row, is almost singlehandedly kept US stocks solvent. Nothing goes up forever and AAPL is due for a correction.

• Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below – Of course the big dog out there is the debt crisis in DC. It trumps everything. If there is some favorable resolution for Wall Street (It may NOT be favorable for Main St) The lower the MO & dollar go the bigger the rebound higher for stocks.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to -36.58(-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold). We are somewhat oversold in the short term. The June low for the MO was @-70. Current Level = Neutral/Bullish

• $USD The Dollar fell significantly -0.80% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Chart shows dollar on its way to challenging the May lows. = Bullish/Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Instead of focusing on the clear and present danger – the economy & jobs, the corporate oligarchy has created an immediate debt crisis.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• Both Parties have drawn up last minute plans that they think help them get elected.  There may be a lot of political back slapping over some ineffective plan. The danger is this will be repeated over next years budget, and if Republicans have their way, before the election.

• This would create added uncertainty over extended period and hurt the American consumer.

• For Main Street USA the continued uncertainty will be devastating. No ones working on job creation and if you cut current government spending there will be even less jobs. How do you fix any deficit without jobs? For Wall Street the results will be negative. Globalized companies that make their profits outside the USA will profit in the long run.

.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

Monday’s Headline Repeated

PROTECT YOUR MONEY

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – This was the one stock I thought could weather what will be a repeated debt crisis storm, because during the 2008 meltdown it produced double digit returns (one of you mentioned this in the comments section)

In  my personal portfolio I have a Put position to protect NLY -

All the blow concepts  considered because of the potential of a US default.

Check the comments section of blog during day because at least one of these positions will be added to hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

GLD & SLV – Gold is at a new high.

UDN – An ETF that shorts the dollar.

BZF - ETF that tracks Brazil’s currency. Big breakout to new highs. Major mistake not to buy this currency.

What about cash? – Realize that as the dollar falls your cash becomes less valuable relative to other currencies. Interest rates may explode if the US does not honor its debt (example Greece) This too would make your cash less valuable.

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY. I have placed puts on one ETF of a major index and a couple of dividend stocks. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

JS in the comment section has used the term ”insurance” to describe the way ”Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

Longer Outlook for US stocks downgraded from CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH to NEUTRAL

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Longer Term Outlook (for US stocks)

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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Republicans Walk Out

Eric Cantor (Republican House majority leader) has walked out of the deficit negotiations.

Reason – he will NOT compromise on tax cuts for the richest Americans

From the Wall Street Banksters to Hedge Fund Billionaires we have seen a huge transfer of wealth in the last 30/40 years. Peter Whoriskey from WAPO is latest to come out with data. So lets mix his data with Robert Reiche.

• 1975 – The top 1/10 of 1% = 2.5% of US income.
• 2008 – The top 1/0 of 1%= 10.4% of US income. (They earn over 1.7 million a year)
• Today the top 400 richest Americans pay a  only a 17% tax rate.

Wall Street Banksters,(derivative investors/players that caused the 2008 meltdown) Hedge Fund Manager  and uber wealthy  who invest in the High Frequency Trades (They make $ off the imbalances in trades) and others pay only 15% on their capital gains tax.

The uber wealthy are protected by an army of lobbyist in congress and obviously Eric Cantor and Jon Kyle.  It also sure looks like the uber’s have a piece or perhaps all of Obama on their side too. He sure hasn’t stuck his neck out and lead in  this default crisis.

China

SHIBOR The highly volatile short term interest rate levels in China have come down, but the longer term 1 year rate is steadily rising.

The following is Good news for Europe (depending on your point of view) –  China working with IMF on Europe

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.49	Up
NASDQ	+0.66	Up
S&P 500	-0.28	UP
Russell 2000	+0.35	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

• Major News of morning - Two Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit have had their trading halted after falling about 8%.  Obviously bad news – how bad is in the details.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to +5.23 (below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) Repeat - The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months.  So we have rally room to till MO gets to +30 to +50 range. = Neutral

• $USD The Dollar rose  significantly +o.79% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator)  The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. Another rally day like yesterday and the 5/1 rally will have a new high. For stocks short term trend = Bearish

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term – From yesterday – MO now neutral, and momentum with bears. Wrong about momentum High beta stocks were able to rally in increased volume, despite a significant move higher in the dollar. Most high growth/beta stocks make their $ abroad and a stronger dollar cuts their profits. When beta stocks rallied despite the dollar’s rise it showed strength – For now the bulls are back

• Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting.

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Longer Term - No change – See May 20th blog.

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago.

TZA yesterday opened up a massive +4% higher and was way too high to buy.

Repeat longer Strategy remains – I’ll wait till the MO gets to at least +30 to short stocks

• Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
• Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Shanghai Traffic at Night

SHIBOR

What the Hell is SHIBOR and why should I care.

Perhaps some of you know what LIBOR is because it directly tied to your mortgage rate or home equity loan. SHIBOR = Shanghai International Offered Rate. This is the standard interest rate Chinese banks offer each other.

Here’s the problem – China is the White Knight – that is supposed to come to the rescue of everything from European debt to the future growth of the world’s economy.  American companies are counting on China for cheap labor and future customers. – Here’s the problem almost no one is talking about –  Interest rates in China have significantly increased in the last week, few days.

The source I referenced above is often over the top and glorifies Ron Paul. But I think they have a point. Their headlining a blip to 9% rates today. That number is accurate according to the SHIBOR main web site.  I can’t find many major financial sources as alarmed as the original source. However I know China’s interest rate hikes this year are a major major concern for every investor. [Google "China Rate Hikes"]

Bottom Line - This is yet another reason to say - its NOT a time to have unprotected long assets. When China’s interest rates become a topic on financial channels markets will melt down quickly

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.66	Down
NASDQ	-0.67	Down
S&P 500	-0.65	Down
Russell 2000	-0.81	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to +15.35 ( below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) From yesterday – The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months. So it sure looks like our four day rally will run out of room very soon. There is a series of lower highs on the MO chart that s very bearish in the long term. MO right now = Neutral

• $USD The Dollar rose  +o.34% yesterday. ( +/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator)  The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks For stocks short term trend = Neural

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term – From yesterday –  ”MO shows we’re technically entering overbought territory. Advantage bears. Can’t help thinking all those put positions were the reason for the rally. Now that the # of Puts is back to normal, we are close to overbought, and only a week and 1/2 of Fed money remains to juice stocks the bears case should gather momentum.” MO now neutral, and momentum with bears.

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Longer Term - No change – See May 20th blog.

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Paul’s Corner

Your Stock List

Your Stock List 4 certainly took it lumps with the end of the bull run that we enjoyed since last September. Selecting stocks at the end stages of a  bull run is often difficult and your chances of making money is slim.  It’s time to retire this beaten warrior and start researching a new “Your Stock List”

[Editors note - See/LINK to POSITIONS Section of Blog (scroll down to bottom) for May 20th recommendations on YSL and the list of stocks]

Kindly make your suggestions to Barr for review. CPHD and ABC should remain from YSL 4 so we need 12 to 14 new stocks for the list.

HGSI screens have produced an interesting list of quality growth stocks that have ignored this correction. For your review, a few charts with excellent credentials.

SBH – Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution and retail of professional beauty supplies. The company operates in two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group.

UA – Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes performance apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and youth primarily in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

HOC – Holly Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petroleum refiner in the United States. It produces light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, specialty lubricant products, specialty and modified asphalt, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), carbon black oil, and gas oil/intermediates

CRS – Carpenter Technology Corporation engages in the manufacture, fabrication, and distribution of specialty metals primarily in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Mexico, and Canada.

TUP- Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products.

HS – HealthSpring, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a managed care organization in the United States. It focuses primarily on Medicare, the federal government sponsored health insurance program for the U. S. citizens aged 65 and older,

RBN -  Robbins & Myers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies engineered equipment and systems for various applications in energy, industrial, chemical, and pharmaceutical markets worldwide.

CROX - Crocs, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and children.

FOSL – Fossil, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and distributes fashion accessories worldwide. It offers a line of fashion watches under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and through licensed brands, including ADIDAS, BURBERRY, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, MARC BY MARC JACOBS, and MICHAEL KORS.

FTO – Frontier Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining crude oil and marketing refined petroleum products. It purchases crude oil to be refined and markets the refined petroleum products,

OME – Omega Protein Corporation processes, markets, and distributes fish meal and fish oil products in the United States. It produces and sells various protein and oil products derived from menhaden, a species of wild herring-like fish found along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. (Just added to the Russell 3000 index)

ZAGG – ZAGG Incorporated designs, manufactures, and distributes protective coverings, audio accessories, and power solutions for consumer electronic and hand-held devices.

Disclaimer, no buy or sell recommendation is made for any stock listed in this post. Understand?

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY – Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago. This stock  is up almost 5% since purchased and has a dividend of @ 13.5%

TZA – ETF that is 3 times short small cap stocks Sold remaining TZA near open at 38.30 for -5% loss. When you add in the rest of the recent TZA trades +8% & +4% total = @ +2%

Mea Culpa – Selling TZA yesterday was probably a big mistake.

From yesterday -The short term player in me wants to sell this position (futures are down so TZA will rally at open) and buy back in at a better point. The long term investor wants to hold onto this. I’m leaning short term. I’m influenced far too much by short term trading blogs and almost all of you want something to buy and hold. You’ve repeatedly told me you “have a life “ and don’t have time to watch things on daily basis.

Like many of you I believe in DIVERSITY. I have a portion of my portfolio in long term holdings (mostly dividend stocks) and have protected them by owning some ETF’s that short the markets SDS & TMZ. I have discussed this in the blog and with many of you that have my email address. SDS & TZA are insurance for potential price falls. I will continue to protect my long positions until further notice.

Investors has gone over Dividend Stocks over the past couple of months and when I have the time I’ll compile this and put it into one section and post it the POSITIONS Section ASAP.

Repeat Strategy remains

• Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative) Will buy more TZA or SDS near open.
• Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY, & TZA as well as a group of dividend stocks – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

James Verone

Sorry Server was down most of the morning  - so here’s a quick mix.

• Markets rallied in pathetically low volume.  Our MO indicator says thing are not oversold and back to neutral. Financial stocks took a hit yesterday.

• Greek gov’t has confidence vote tonight. It will pass. This should rally stocks. Key is the size of demonstrations in front of parliament. Greek people feel banksters share responsibility for crisis and should be held accountable not just people of Greece.  This crisis through out Europe is going to be twisting in the wind all through summer and beyond. Besides its debt problems Greece now has to pay almost 30% interest rate on its bonds.

• Banksters are calling the shots in Greece as they have since the 2008 meltdown. “The epicenter of the new crisis is Greece, which epitomizes the folly of banker rule.” - Bob Kuttner

• SHIBOR rockets to 8.6% – Translation =  China has a significant exploding inflation problem that crucial to economic worldwide growth.  Not good news.

• Lots of blogs headlining how you can get health care for $1.00. Story of James Verone who desperately needed medical attention so he held up a bank for $1.00 then say in a chair to wait for police.  He now gets free medical care. – The money quote from Verone - “When you don’t have your health you haven’t got anything.”

• Read of tea leaves – short term rally continues on Greek news. No change in long term outlook or strategy.

Paul’s Corner

1^st Official Day Of Summer! Wow! Market futures are up, time to jump back into the pool?

Yup at 6:30 this morning market futures are up and you know what that means, once the market opens at 9:30 all bets are off. Great place to put your money, eh?

Yesterday was an up day and many of the indexes finished up but it was done on low  volume.

The bulls are trying to make a stand but there appears to only be a few bulls ready for action.

David Garlardi, an HGSI user, posted a link to an interesting article “Economies are slowing around the world…

LINK

The last line is important “The US dollar gained against the Aussie dollar and other major pairs as investors’ risk appetite diminished following the minutes. ” If this indicates a change in the direction of the US dollar, a strong dollar equals a weak market. (Interesting, the world economy is slowing, I GUESS Obama’s policies really don’t work)

Bio-Tech led the way yesterday in the high demand stock search, 2^nd and 3^rd have some of our old favorites:

Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods (5.00%, 5 securities)

• Fossil  Inc. (FOSL)
• Lululemon Athletica  Inc. (LULU)
• True Religion Apparel  Inc. (TRLG)
• Under Armour  Inc. (UA)
• Warnaco Group  Inc. (WRC)

Specialty Stores (4.00%, 4 securities)

• OfficeMax Inc (OMX)
• Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG)
• Tractor Supply (TSCO)
• Zale Corporation (ZLC)

So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up this morning, is this a new morning in America or another fakey before the BIG crash? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Republicans

Republicans debated last night for the first time. I’ll spare you any debate analysis - Mitt Romney is by far the odds on favorite.

Mitt’s a smart guy and a good politician.

As a resident of Massachusetts who uses the biggest pork highway project in world history (The $16 billion dollar Big Dig) – every time I pick up people from the airport I thank former MA governor Romney and you for blessing all the cost overruns that made our piece of pork possible. It cut’s my trip time to the airport in half. When the tunnels are not dropping 5 ton tiles on cars every resident of Massachusetts thanks you for your money.

Mitt’s an Investment Banker, and a good one (Former CEO of Bain Capital) For readers of Investors411 that makes him a vampire squid. Mitt made a Mittload of cash just like  movie character - Gordon Gekko did – leveraged buyouts. Bain would take over companies, borrow on those assets, cut jobs, sell off the parts, and leave a bankruptcy behind after moving on.

Since economic growth and jobs the singe most important crisis immediate facing Americans I’m going to find it difficult to support a smart vampire squid when the shadow squids almost sucked the economic life out of the USA in 2008. Supporting Mitt is like asking the late Dr Jack Kevorkian to deliver your baby instead of a pediatrician

Here’s the money quote from Steven Colbert

“Mitt Romney knows just how to trim the fat. He rescued businesses like Dade Behring, Stage Stories, American Pad and Paper, and GS Industries, then his company sold them for a profit of $578 million after which all of those firms declared bankruptcy. Which sounds bad, but don’t worry,

almost no one worked there anymore.”

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.01%	Down
NASDQ	-0.15%	Down
S&P 500	+0.07%	Down
Russell 2000	-0.30%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

• Sputtering US Economy Complicates Debt Talks – This statement is a no brainer.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose slightly  to -64.29. US Stocks are oversold. (anything below -60 = oversold) Another “snapback” oversold rally is possible.  The last oversold rally was a dead cat bounce UUP -a tracking ETF for the US dollar fell a significant +0.51%, yet this failed to move stocks higher – a bearish sign.

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Short term – We got some good/expected news out of China ( I wouldn’t trust these figures – but Wall Street won’t openly question them) and markets are oversold –  so another dead cat bounce is probable. The overriding uncertainty of no quantitative easing and political gridlock over the debt ceiling should trump any extended rally. So let’s stay with the same dead cat bounce pattern of lower highs and lows till it breaks down.

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Longer Term -  “See May 20th blog for forecast for this summer.”

The Dead Cat Bounce

Actually we are where the red cat is and should start up today

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Paul’s Corner

Hello world, it’s June 14 and pre market futures are up

Let’s RUMBLE!

Well it would be nice if I had the confidence to jump back into this market at the first signs of life, but since  I failed market forecasting in 7^th grade the market really needs  to convince me, a few more days in cash won‘t hurt. The few merger announcements Monday morning kicked off the market, but more downgrading of Greece halted a perfectly good day of fun.

“Drill here, drill now” is the favorite mantra of the politicians who are trying to scare the American public into accepting oil platforms in their back yard, yet oil prices would suggest things ain’t as bad as some say. There is almost a $20 difference between WTI (US Oil) and North Sea Brent pricing. NSB is higher due to production problems of Libya, but US/Canadian production at the moment is at excess capacity and they are running out of storage space in Cushing Ok. Between the Alberta Tar Sands, the Bakken field and the new production coming from the Eagleford field in Texas we should have a decent domestic cushion for some time. IMO, lower crude prices do suggest caution in placing your grand children’s inheritance into the drillers and oil field support at the moment. The Eng-O&G Exploration group was at the bottom of the list yesterday (153 out of 154) and it’s chart is starting to look ugly.

My favorite high demand search once again gave the drug companies top billing, and Utilities 2^nd so there is nothing suggesting lift off is about to happen.

Health-Drugs (8.00%, 8 securities)

• Akorn  Inc. (AKRX)
• Cephalon  Inc. (CEPH)
• Elan Corporation PLC (ELN)
• Forest Laboratories  Inc. (FRX)
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
• Questcor Pharmaceuticals  In (QCOR)
• Valeant Pharmaceuticals Inte (VRX)
• Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc. (WPI)

Shoes and Apparel Foot Wear came in 4^th and 5^th probably due to the Timberland buyout.

Later today in the comments section, I’ll list a few growth stocks that seem to be ignoring the market. Check back during coffee break or lunch to see what HGSI software has found in the pile of rubble.

So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up this morning, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock.

TZA - 3 times short small cap stocks Bought 1/2 position in TZA (3x short small cap stocks) at 38.65 on Tuesday   Added another 1/2 position to TZA at 39.75 at/near open Wednesday.  Bought another 1/2 TZA position at 39.75 Thursday.

Sold 1/2 position at 41.50 yesterday (see yesterday’s comments section of blog) for almost +8% gain. May sell more early.

Will add another full or 1/2 TZA positions on any modest market rally – This will be announced in comments section of blog

BAC – Bank of America – This bank is sinking and if you short stocks I don’t think its too late to join in on the trend. Short the rally.

Investors411 has recommended also using TZA or SDS as a hedge/insurance against losses in NLY and especially if you own other dividend stocks (see past month blogs on dividend stocks.)  This way you protect prices of dividend stocks against falling and still collect the dividend.

Repeat Strategy remains

• Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative) .
• Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY, & TZA - I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Elizabeth Warren

News/Trends /Politics

• No Fly Zone – UN poised to vote  on a no fly zone in Libya.
• “Business friendly” Bahrain vanishes. Our dictator (home of the 5th fleet in Mideast) may be starting a Sunni/Shia religious civil war. Example (Violent 30 second video)
• Relative quiet from Japan reactor situation. Huffington Post live updates
• China suspends nuclear building program
• Congratulations to The Critic (see comments section of blog) and anyone else who bought the dip yesterday. At 8:30 AM EST future prices were up about 1%.
• Elizabeth Warren (our best hope at consumer protection) under attack from Republicans

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-2.04%	up
NASDQ	-1.89%	up
S&P 500	-1,95%	up
Russell 2000	-1.19%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan’s nuclear situation is still the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Market movement is dictated more by behavioral psychology than technicals at this point. However, there are some relevant technical and fundamental points

• Yesterday’s heavy volume sure liked a climax sell off or the start of one. Volume dramatically higher has wiped out the weak holder of stocks, and there is room for an upside move.
• Single largest piece of financial news is the dramatic move higher for Japanese currency . Another economic blow to Japan All good coming from Japan will cost more and what’s called the “carry trade” has ended.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose yesterday +0.46% Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar directly above a support level. = Neutral.
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to--88,39. Clearly oversold, but news from Japan trumps everything =Bullish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Japan reactor developments trump all technical aspects of the market. However, you have to start to think that at least some of the worst case senerio is built into stock prices.

This is a chart of the MO for the past 3 years The MO has fallen to -90 about 6 times in the last three years and each time it has improved dramatically within a couple days. It has not been this low in almost a year.

When you add the  flow of the Fed POMO money coming into the market to the fact that only strong holders of stocks are left you have a formula for a rally.

Yes, there could easily be another leg down on the Japanese reactor situation worsening. But for those with guts to buy when everyone else is selling now is the time. More reasonable investors will want to wait for another leg down or conclusion to the Japan reactor problem. Perhaps, A more sensible and cautious approach.

Stocks in pre market trading are moving higher. Moving up on no significant news from Japan is a positive sign. Moving up on bad news would be better.

Bottom Line – An oversold rebound is likely and shouldl turn into a rally if Japan situation stabilizes.

The one worry is Fed POMO runs out on June 30. If stocks are bad, there will probably be more quantitative easing. But the uncertainty over this hurts stocks.

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now down below $100.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL -
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

Considering UWM or TNA near the open if it does not open dramatically higher. Could be a very short term trade.  See comments section of blog for timing.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

JOBS and The Compromise.

In the comments section several of you have brought up the Deficit & Jobs and how they relate to the major Tax cut extension compromise that Democrats have soundly rejected.

On the Deficit – You’re right its going to add about $900 billion and those same hypocrite Republicans who agreed to this compromise are going to scream bloody murder about the deficit later.

However JOBS is priority one and almost everyone realizes this. Without it we get nowhere because without jobs there is no income and far less tax revenue. Americans realize this as explained in Nov. 22nd Investors 411 American are far more concerned about jobs and the economy than anything else

Job Multipliers (formulas) are  tools economists use to evaluate how many jobs come form different economic stimulus. Links here (scroll 1/2 way down to tabel 2) & here You will find the lowest job multipliers on these lists are cutting taxes for the wealthy and corporate taxes. Highest job multipliers are areas like infrastructure spending, energy production & food production.

As we all know we cut taxes in 2000 and we know it did NOTHING to stimulate jobs growth because unemployment has nearly doubled since then. Cutting taxes has also led to a bigger deficit.

Here’s my rating of different parts of the Obama Compromise as related to

JOB & ECONOMICS

• Tax cuts for the Wealthy – Adds to deficit and is a horrible jobs multiplier Grade F
• Tax cuts for middle class – Adds to the deficit  and is a moderate jobs multiplier  because most of these folks will spend money. Grade C
• Extending Unemployment benefits - Adds to deficit and is good jobs multiplier because money immediately spent. Grade B+
• Breaks to corporations – Adds to deficit  at a time when corporate profits are at a nominal all time high. Grade F
• Cuts estate tax – Adds to deficit and is horrible jobs multiplier Grade F
• 2% pay role tax cut for those earning less than 107k Adds to deficit but is moderate/good jobs multiplier Grade B-

These grades are, of course highly subjective. I’ve put far more emphasis on job creation than deficit reduction. I did not have the time to put important dollar figures behind each topic. So guesstimating those figures into final grade  The final grade for Obama’s Compromise as primarily a jobs bill is Grade D+

In Obama’s original stimulus package – There was both Political Pork and some excellent energy related and infrastructure programs that multiplied jobs. The biggest part of the Obama Stimulus – a $288 billion tax cut - doesn’t seem to have had any sort of major impact on job creation relative to job multipliers.

Am I wrong? What’s your take?

If you disagree and give it a higher grade –  Remember from 2000 to 2010 the tax cut LOST jobs because we now have so many more unemployed. The Obama Stimulus (whose biggest component was a tax cut) gets points for stabilizing job loss (from -700,000 per month to a +50,000) but did NOT bring us our of our 10% hole.

As Robert H once said in the comment’s section of the blog when asked about smaller/bigger government and cutting/raising taxes  -  “Im for Effective government.”

STOCKS

Investors411 tries to keep it basic.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.02%	down
NASDQ	+0.29%	down
S&P	+0.38%	down
Russell 2000	+0.47%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

World Stocks

Stories about China possibly raising interest rates seem to be having a greater impact on stocks than all the gridlock or wrangling on the tax cut extension. Reality is The Obama Tax cut compromise has been talked about by everyone, but its price impact has been one big yawn for US equities

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Chart Pattern for benchmark S&P 500 has formed a classic 8 month long cup and handle trading pattern. We have had a breakout (also NASDQ & Russell 2000) to new highs. This was NOT your typical BIG volume breakout that used to be associated with a major support falling.

As mentioned many times before – US market investors/traders have changed. Mom & Pop investors have left and trading is dominated by the algorithms of Black Box High Frequency Traders. So the old rules governing volume have changed.

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Reading The Tea Leaves -

• 10 Year T Bill setteled down yesterday and that’s bullish for stocks.
• Major Indexes are pretty far above 50 DMA’s and this shows they are close to overbought. That’s bearish
• MO sending a conflicting signal saying there is pleant of room for major indexes to move up. That’s neutral

Bullish Outlook for rest of year – Why

Volume gets historically light starting next week and into the new year. Traders and investors go on holiday break.  This leaves the Fed buying bonds from the its 21 primary dealers (shadow banks) and those dealers investment houses (wink wink) investing that money back into stocks. It also means the BB/HFT are more dominant.

What happened yesterday was an example. Lighter volume a big Fed print and dump and about 2:30 markets take the excess supply of money and this  ultimately juices stocks. So there is a good probability that we continue to have a light volume slow melt up. The light volume will magnify the amount of money that the Fed and member banks are investing.

Also, December is historically either the best or second best month of the year. Money managers will want to show their clients that they have the winning stocks in their portfolio  at the end of the year. So there is some rebalancing. Everyone knows this happens and front runs it.

Of course, dramatic outside event could shatter this. If China does raise interest rates too cool off growth this melt up will get tempered. But on the whole still cautiously bullish for the above reason.

Positions

Tom Friedman Pulitzer Prize winning NYT Editorialist

The Strike Out

The Date – June 29th 2005

The Editorial - The End of the Rainbow – Ireland

Ireland adopted an unbelievably lowest corporate tax rate of 12.5%, America’s shadow banking and casino capitalism (AKA free markets). Tom does an Irish jig for joy over what he sees as a bright  future. Tiny Ireland now needs a gigantic EU bailout and austerity to just survive

The Home Run

The Date – December 1st 2010

The Editorial – From WickiChina – China

What the Chinese officials on their way to world economic domination would be saying about our self destructive government and media if WikiLeaks. At first I laughed then it was just sad. A sample  -

There is a willful self-destructiveness in the air here as if America has all the time and money in the world for petty politics. They fight over things like — we are not making this up — how and where an airport security officer can touch them. They are fighting — we are happy to report — over the latest nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia. It seems as if the Republicans are so interested in weakening President Obama that they are going to scuttle a treaty that would have fostered closer U.S.-Russian cooperation on issues like Iran. And since anything that brings Russia and America closer could end up isolating us, we are grateful…

Well worth reading and passing on to your friends,

START

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Part 2)

YOUR Comments – Yankee Bob is back and you can read his full comments by linking to yesterday’s blog. Here’s how he starts

There was nothing heroic about Ronald Reagan. He declared war on the government and did much to land us in this deregulated un-unionized social welfare state for the rich and corporations. Beyond the petty politics he was a murderer. He gave funding ,training, aid and comfort and the green light to Death Squads all over Latin America. He condoned torture and murder without due process to further his political agenda…

Jim J concludes

I understand that the joint Chief of Staffs all support the new START treaty. What happened to Republican patriotism?

Paul R on START

I don’t recall who recently said it, but when asked about rep support for START his comments were “sure, but we need to modernize the military first”. “Military” Republican stimulus plan

START – Part 3 (tomorrow)

Stocks

Investors411 tries to keep it basic.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+2.27%	up
NASDQ	+2.05%	down
S&P	+2.16%	down
Russell 2000	+2.22%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

World Stocks - December has historically been the best or outstanding month for stocks.

USA – Today is confirmation day for yesterday’s rally. If stocks can come close to holding onto their gains or improve on them the rally gets confirmed. This more often than not means our newly born bull will continue to grow. The big news is still Friday’s jobs report. Built in are expectations of improvement.

Europe - Early in the day there was hyped news that the US Treasury was going to help Europe with its problems – later it was denied.

Emerging markets – EEM the ETF for emerging markets was up +2.87% yesterday. Good news especially for long term investors is that emerging markets outperformed the major US indexes. USO – (oil ETF) another rally leader +3.22% UCO (leveraged ETF 2x oil +6.20%) When energy prices move up it often not only reflects economic expansion in USA, but increasingly emerging markets.

Reading The Tea Leaves -

The “Good News” from yesterday was - Trend exhaustion  -49 on the MO shows we are technically reaching a point where there are fewer and fewer sellers out there.

Congratulations to several of you who recognized how over sold markets were getting and took the risk by buying the dip on Tuesday.

Ideally you’d like the MO over -60 but The Critic (see comments section of yesterday’s blog) is right – generally – the lower the MO goes the better your chances are for catching an oversold bounce and a more successful longer term trade. Her statement from comments section -

“So I buy when the MO is at -50. There’s much more room from -50 to +100 than -50 to -100. The odds may not be perfect, but they are in my favor.”

Also -The McClellan Oscillator (MO) and other forecasting tools are far more related to broader Indexes or ETF’s than individual stocks. Example - Paul R points out how over extended both DECK & IMAX are right now in the comments section.

How you play the MO and other  forecasting tools depends on your level of risk. The Critic uses leveraged ETF’s (EWM, SSO, UCO & TYH) as part of her portfolio and although she has NOT announced it in the comments section she has done quite well. TYH was up +6.53% yesterday. If she bought near the previous day’s low the total gain was +10% She also has a diversified portfolio of long term assets and uses YOUR Stock List.

Direxion and ProShares are the two companies that offer leveraged ETF’s. See POSITIONS section for blog for links. Obviously something that’s leveraged 2x is less risky than most 3x leveraged funds.

Bottom Line – As I stated in the comments section – This big a move off a retest of a major support level. It usually indicates that the rally will continue. (This Retest = Price moves down to support level,  remains above the support level for a period of days (9 days), then falls back down and retests strength of the support level. It held. Then, in one day stocks moved higher than the higher of the previous 9 days – A breakout. = Bullish

Positions

• EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF)
• UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) This is now up over +7% since it was bought @ 10 days ago. Once a leveraged ETF goes up 5+ % I usually sell 1/2 or put a tight trailing stop on that 1/2 of @2% on it each day. I’ll do this today.

From Yesterday – This means at least a short term oversold bounce. And what a bounce it was.

Long Term Investors - Mea Culpa – I like the odds to be more in our favor before making major long term investment. So I did NOT put out a clear BUY signal. However realize if you can tolerate the risk -60 on the MO is NOT a line in the sand and like The Critic you don’t have to wait.

THE PURPOSE OF INVESTORS411 IS TO EDUCATE YOU ON HOW TO USE SOME BASIC FORECASTING TOOL AND ACT ACCORDINGLY. Stock Markets are moving faster than ever before and by the time I get the information out it sometimes has gone stale. Also I’m NOT watching stocks move all day and sometimes ignore markets entirely. THEREFORE, USE INVESTORS411 AS AN EDUCATIONAL TOOL - If you have a problem I will answer your email ASAP.

Investors – A -15 on the MO still gives us some wiggle room. Considering UCO and more UWM on a dip today. This is a higher risk trade/investment.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” -