Investors411 has a 6  year record of beating the S&P 500

Fat so called “Free Markets” and the public

Investors411 2008 prediction – “The problem in the financial sector is far far far far far bigger than first imagined. Impact of this mess is going to take years to resolve.”

Each year in the POSITION section of the blog the above statement has been repeated. The so called “free market” capitalism that is sinking the US economy now looks like it will now take at least a DECADE before any resolution is is forthcoming and that’s if we are lucky. For a more detailed outlook as to what’s happening see OVERVIEW

Unfortunately The MAY 20 downgrade of the US economy and stocks has come to pass (we’re still a couple % short of the predicted amount, but that should happen today)

Like the two guys on the seesaw above –

A list of the economic imbalances in the future for the USA.

• Loss of focus on jobs – Without jobs the economy doesn’t grow and the deficit does not shrink
• Stimulus runs out – You can argue its effectiveness, but bottom line it added to GDP
• QE2 ends – The FED liquidity supply that propped up both stocks and the US economy is over
• Constriction of money supply begins – Government programs that helped create a vibrant and united America will be cut and jobs get cut with them. Simple math less money supply = less GDP growth= Great Recession Part 2
• Japan and Europe are in trouble, Emerging markets have inflation problems. (see Great Recession/Roubini link above)
• A “Misguided” S&P downgrade that is going to further decimate the state budgets/jobs and consumer confidence

Blame - What’s needed is short term stimulus and medium and long term austerity measures. (paraphrase from Roubini link above)

Tea Party/Republicans = Only one presidential candidate, Jon Huntsman, has dared take an opposing view to Tea Party orthodoxy.

• No compromise attitude.
• Free markets or nothing at all.
• No government regulations on markets.
• Abolish the Fed.
• Return to the gold standard.
• It’s the fault of the teachers, cops, firefighters, union workers, blacks, foreigners, foreigners and every low wage earner in America that we are in this crisis.

Democrats

• The Democrats started caving in under Clinton when Greenspan and others deregulated investment banks leading to over leveraging and the 2008 meltdown.
• Obama has caved in to big business/”free market” at almost every turn (see past blogs). From his health plan, to trade treaties to caving in on taxes for the wealthy. He’s NO Teddy Roosevelt.

US (you and me) – The reality is we have no one to blame but ourselves for letting greed triumph over common sense and caring about our fellow partners on the planet

Investors/YOU

Its sad to see so many Americans who have made out financially because of our economic system now turn on the system that gave them their wealth.

QE #3 may stabilize the meltdown, but  the Tea Party will do everything possible to block it.

Cash is a better position than equities, but as explained before it too has its drawbacks.  I hate having a negative position on American companies but in reality the major corporations are globalized entities and care far more about profits than you.

These globalized entities or corporate oligarchy care far more about profits than where they hire workers or find consumers. The less governance they have the more they will exploit workers and working conditions.

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide.

In  my personal portfolio I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Bought at 157.1 last week. (see last weeks blogs and comments section) –  Sold at 162.4 last Wednesday for over +3% gain,  Will buy back in on dip.

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY. I have placed puts most  of of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

My overall positions in stocks is to be short the US markets

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#1 Technical forecasting tool – The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to to -111.38 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold).

So we are at clearly OMG oversold levels.

Context -  last summer after QE 1 ended and before QE2 started we reached -135 However, he situation now looks worse than last year, but not as bad as 2008.  It’s reasonable to expect a -135 or lower on the MO

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

The Long Term Outlook has been downgraded because technical support has fallen and above.

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

The manufactured debt crisis has dealt a serious blow to our economic recovery. The clear and present danger of the jobs crisis and a double dip recession has been negatively impacted. Since the Tea Party has come to dominance the jobs picture has headed south. There is far more pain ahead for the US economy

• The focus has been changed from creating jobs to dealing with the debt.

• Corporate oligarchy is taking advantage of the distraction to ship more jobs out of the USA. Latest – Ford builds billion dollar plant in India. Emerging markets are growing while ours continue to shrink.

• Corporations are overflowing with record profits, yet NOT creating jobs in the USA. Any cuts in government spending NOW means less jobs NOW.  Without jobs there is no recovery. Lisa Shapiro on job cuts

• Most cuts to government in the next year+ will do serious damage to job growth. Those cut 5 and 10 years out will do far lass damage.

Obvious political consequences of debt deal for Obama was perhaps stated best by a young voter who first voted in 2008. – “I’m done with Obama…I can not support a President who won’t stand up against bullies.”

Mitt Romney, at the last moment, threw his support behind the Tea Party and rejected the budget compromise. The Invesment Banker running for president (Romney) is no different than any Tea Party member. Far less moderate than most Republicans who voted for the deal.

I would have followed Bill Clinton’s advice. Raised the debt ceiling using the 14th amendment and included tax cuts for the wealthy in any deal.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.09%	down
NASDQ	-0.43%	down
S&P 500	-0.41%	down
Russell 2000	-0.52%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• The MO was over -80 yesterday. (see chart) When the Dow dipped @ 140 points the MO would have reached the lowest levels  in over a year. But the MO, tabulated only at the close, closed 130 points higher.  Now that the pressure of the manufactured debt crisis  is gone both the MO and the USD should be better in forecasting. Translation – way too many oversold short positions becomes an important factor to juice a rally.

• Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below -

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to -69.81(-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold). MO clearly shows oversold  conditions exist. Current Level = Bullish

• $USD The Dollar rose significantly +0.49% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) On a fundamental level you’d expect a rally in dollar over temporary settlement of debt problem. Technically we are sitting near bottom of trading range.= Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves – A technical relief rally was hurt by bad economic data (ISM number) yesterday. However, when you are this much oversold all you need is the slightest hint of good news to string together up to handful of bullish days. When MO gets into the green (above zero) that technical pressure eases off.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• Some serious damage has been done to the US political structure as a functioning body. Even though we didn’t default everyone now realizes that there are a sizable number  of US politicians who are willing to hold the US economy hostage to their ideological beliefs.

• For Main Street USA this means uncertainty. This will be devastating.  The debt crisis deal will cost jobs rather than create them. If you contract the money supply in the USA it means less jobs.  Investors411 mantra - How do you fix any deficit without jobs?

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Paul’s Corner

Hello world, it’s Aug 2 and pre market futures are down, let’s sit on the side  of the market for awhile!

My good friend Ron Brown from HGSI summed it up nicely last week “It is a dangerous market environment, so unless you like extreme mood swings, it may be best to hold off on initiating new positions.”

One would have expected more than a mild yawn in the market after Washington agreed to stop acting like children but what can you expect from a bunch of babies? Futures are down this morning as it appears the forecasters on Wall St are back to looking at why the economy is stalling again. When they figure out why I wish they would tell us.

So what was in demand on a down day is always a great place to search for stocks. Yesterday Aug 1 the top 3 groups:

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (11.88%, 12 securities)

• Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC)
• Approach Resources  Inc. (AREX)
• Berry Petroleum Company (BRY)
• Brigham Exploration Company (BEXP)
• EQT Corp. (EQT)
• EV Energy Partner LP (EVEP)
• Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR)
• Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (KOG)
• Noble Energy  Inc. (NBL)
• Range Resources Corporation (RRC)
• Royale Energy  Inc. (ROYL)
• Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR)

Casinos & Gaming (5.94%, 6 securities)

• Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN)
• Entertainment Gaming Asia  I (EGT)
• Gaming Partners Internationa (GPIC)
• Las Vegas Sands Inc (LVS)
• Melco Crown Entertainment Lt (MPEL)
• Nevada Gold & Casinos  Inc. (UWN)

Specialty Chemicals (5.94%, 6 securities)

• International Flavors & Frag (IFF)
• Lubrizol Corporation (LZ)
• LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)  (YSL 4 Member)
• Material Sciences Corporatio (MASC)
• Rockwood Holdings  Inc. (ROC)
• W.R. Grace & Company (GRA)

Dave Steckler always has an interesting blog and he specializes in ETF’s. Yesterday he discusses how to use the Bollinger Band around a stock and the 4 day SMA to time entry signals:

The composite index touching the upper BB should be viewed as a set-up, not as a long entry signal.  If the market continues falling like it did in the first half of June the composite index will continue climbing the upper BB – wait for the index to close below the 4-day SMA after touching the upper BB before going long.  Put another way, the BB touch is the set-up and the SMA crossover is the long signal.  This last happened on June 14th.

Please read his whole blog to understand this principle.

LINK

So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up this morning, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Note, none of the above stocks are recommended for buy or sale. Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

Short term traders - You have an MO at -70. This should be a decent opportunity to invest in a momentum play

Longer Term Investors – Specific areas tied to globalized companies and foreign stocks could outperform. Defense contractors & some heath care stocks are negatively impacted by debt deal in DC and will sufer.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – Kudos to anyone who bought NLY on the dip.

In  my personal portfolio I have a Put position to protect NLY

GLD – (Long Gold ETF)

UDN – (Short Dollar ETF)

Both UND & GLD were bought  because of the clear and present danger of a default. Both are overbought at the present time. It would be more prudent to enter each position when it was oversold.  Selling UND today.  Better long term outlook for GLD (gold).

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY. I have placed puts on one ETF of a major index and a couple of dividend stocks. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I sold about 1/2 of the short positions yesterday

JS in the comment section has used the term ”insurance” to describe the way ”Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

News /Trends/ Politics

• United Nations – “voted Thursday to authorize military action, including air strikes against Libyan tanks and heavy artillery and a no-fly zone, a risky foreign intervention aimed at averting a bloody rout of rebels by forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.”  Thanks to Popeye for heads up on NYT story

• Japan – Someone, somewhere, somehow really knows what’s going on. But their lips are sealed as Japanese government says one thing and other countries say something else. Latest news “smoke from reactors,” at Huffington Post. This smoke and mirrors is exactly like the shadow banking system in the USA who doesn’t even have to follow FASB

• Anonymous – More on the internet hacker group that “above all intends to break the international banking cartel centered at the Fed“

• United Nations – Irony: Almost every country that voted to give Obama/France & England cover to take out Ka Daffy, cited the support of the “Arab League.” It just so happens that the vast majority of the Arab League is itself oppressive dictators.  Oh well – we sacrifice one revolution – Bahrain,  to crush a more despotic regime in Libya.

• G7 Intervention - The G7 countries Central Banks have intervened to prop up Japan. The BOJ is already printing & quantitative easing money out by the truck load. Stock Futures rise as G7 Brings International Relief to Japan

• Obama – He shoots he scores: It took Cheney/Bush months of phony arguments and all they got was a now disintegrated “coalition of the willing” in Iraq. In a couple weeks Obama (Boy did the Clintons push for this) got a unanimous security council vote (10 voted yes & 5 abstained).  International credibility to attack Ka Daffy might even be a last second buzzer beater for the rebels.

• Basketball – The most passionate US sporting tournament began yesterday. While you may call the above topics March Madness, the 68 college team tournament owns the rights to the real title – March Madness. (video)

• Libya – Just in  - Ka Daffy says OMH and halts all hostility.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+1.39%	down
NASDQ	+0.73%	down
S&P 500	+1.34%	down
Russell 2000	+0.46%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan’s nuclear situation is still the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Now, Libya & oil become another dominant factor. Market movement is dictated more by behavioral psychology than technicals at this point. However, there are some relevant technical and fundamental points.

• G7 intervention in Japan a short term positive for world markets. Stabilization better than chaos.
• Visions of a kick ass  adrenaline rush war in Libya dance in traders minds today. But that can change to burning oil fields.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a HUGE  -0.93% yesterday. Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar broke short term support, but directly above a major support level. = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -54.76 Still close to -60  oversold level.=Neutral/Bullish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Obviously, we had an oversold MO at -88 and we had a rally. But there was a second factor to the rally and that was the HUGE drop in the dollar. Some of this has to do with the Japan situation. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) last night has intervened to prop up their currency as well as the G7. The BOJ is printing gobs of money and using quantitative easing.

We’ll probably see a roller coaster ride for the dollar.  The long term trend is down. This makes US goods cost less abroad and increases profit. Bad news here is you don’t want the dollar to fall to far too fast. It becomes as worthless as Zimbabwe’s currency. It’s also troubling that in a disaster (Japan & Arab revolutions) people do NOT buy the dollar as protection.

Longer Term – A potentially winnable war in Libya, Japan rebuilds without nuclear power, and Saudis plus other oil dictatorships asserting authoritarian power/stability. If only those reactors don’t radiate a big hunk of Japan we have the potential for bulls to run.

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. – Headlines from Libya.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

Longer Term - A low MO has for the last 3 years been an accurate the signal to buy. I’ve used this Positions Section as an aggressive ETF section for short term trades. Any long position below should outperform if we don’t hit leg two of a worldwide recession. Japan will be in recession. However, quantitative easing will pick up the slack in the USA (a QE #3) if the situation gets too bad. All this is one big inflationary bubble that bursts down the road, but for now its still bubblicious.

So I’m buyer today – probably UWM . See comments section for more.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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CONGRATULATIONS To Paul who just got a kudos from the HGSI Technical Analysis site

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new “YOUR Stock List.”

The Truth & It Hurts

How the rest of World reports a story – WikiLeak’s on Iraq war -

Iraqi Father and Daughter

On Friday at 5:00EST the largest leak of classified military documents ever was realeased on the Iraq war by WikiLeaks. They covered the Iraq war from 2004 to 2009. Here’s WikiLeaks war logs referenced & outline (400,000 classified documents to browse)

This is the major international headline throughout most of the world. Our media (covers only 4% of the world’s 7 billion people) as you might guess is downplaying this document dump with – other data, stories, personal life of Wikileak founder etc..

So, since you get those sources, lets look at what the rest of the world sees and reads

• Al Jazeera –  This is their English/International version.
• Le Monde (in French)
• The Guardian (English)
• Der Spiegel (Germany)

These are 4 of the 5 (The last was the NYT) that were given the documents in advance. You can’t deny what Sec. of State Clinton said in condemnation - “in the most clear terms… the disclosure of any classified information that will put the lives of Americans and others at risk.”

Some rather obvious observations

• The extent of torture, war Crimes, murders, civilian deaths were far greater than originally reported in Iraq.
• Dehumanizing the other side is pretty standard in war, but 96% of the world that’s not American gets to see the Muslim parents and children suffer. Most American’s  don’t.
• The single largest cause of creating  Islamic terrorism since 2003 has been the “unjust” (word of UN secretary General) invasion of Iraq & war on terrorism

American (including me) will go back to our football games, digesting political fabrications, and our lives. But Remember YOU are paying for all this.

The father, brother, son, daughter, relative or friend of those who are murdered, tortured raped and assaulted can and do turn into tomorrow’s terrorist.

How would YOU react if it was your child???

Photos from IrregularTimes.com

Bats**t Crazy

In politics (or anything) its important to fight 100% for what you believe in. But Rome wasn’t built in a day. Sometimes you’ve got to be a realist and if you can make things better, you accept it and fight on.

Both privately and publicly those of you who have made comments or talked with me are furious at Obama (Afghanistan, Health Care, lack of leadership, & other issues.) Me too. Indeed one poll shows Obama nationally with a 51% approval rating (and sinking) and Hillary Clinton with a 75% approval rating. LINK

Nate Silver, who was perhaps the best pollster/analyst out there makes a strong case for accepting a health care compromise. (see chart above) Personally I’s love to see something like Medicare extended to all Americans (Bernie Sanders D. VT. Introduced such a measure) but the reality is it’s not going to win. Part of the reason for this is Obama’s lack of commitment and leadership. Howard Dean & others want to Kill the Health bill and start over. LINK

Silver’s chart and explanation of how he arrived at these figures is a rational reason to accept what’s there – "Progressives are Bats**t Crazy to Oppose the Senate Bill. "  LINK Nate goes on and lists 20 reasons why progressives and others should support compromise legislation – LINK You can also see an ongoing debate at his site LINK

Frankly, another strong argument is its time to move on – Jobs, fixing too big to fail structures, systemic economic risk, and the huge economic hole we are in desperately need more attention.  If progressives are going to waste time crying or raging over spilled milk and pointing fingers they become useless.

Bottom Line – If heath care cost are going to come down anything like Silver’s chart shows and the richest 1% in the USA pay for it I’m happy

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.10%	up
NASDQ	+0.27%	up
S&P500	+0.11%	up
Russell2000-	+0.81%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar was flat and so were US markets. The Fed left interest rates and its statement about the future basically unchanged. Volume usually rises on Fed announcement days. In the short term it now looks like the dollar will rise and stocks fall. The Fed announcement reinforces this.

A week or two ago Investors411 mentioned small cap stocks (Russell 2000) would outperform other US indexes. This is happening. Unfortumately, no new positions were bought. Will wait for dip to buy.

FEARLESS WEEKLY FORECAST – Up to flat week . But be careful we are entering overbought territory (see below) and if rally continues I’ll be taking profits rather than adding to stocks.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade)

In an effort to shorten all this technical data I’m going to write on the BDI weekly. The index is in a mid term downward (bearish) pattern right now & longer term bullish pattern (for over a year).  The BDI does forecast world market movement, especially China, but not immediately like some other indexes.  The fact that the BDI is falling right now is an indication of why China & some emerging markets are not as strong as the USA.

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar fell yesterday -0.07 . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant The dollar closed at $76.87 . Technically have broken up through the 50 day moving average resistance level and now broken out through another significant resistance level the Oct/Nov high at 76.82 = Bullish for dollar & bearish for stocks

The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is bearish

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

. The index closed at +30.13 This is a slightly Overbought Position

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+ =  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Bottom Line – Start thinking about taking profits, especially into any continued rally .

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

(again a little behind on latest moves)

Will wait to sell some ETF’s and stocks when McClellan Index/Oscillator approaches overbought (@+60)

Recommended ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Your Comments - (See "Monitor’s" comments on side of blog – About a week  ago Investors411 sold its positions in GLD. DGP, AMZN & NVS ) – Not interested in opening any new positions right now Waiting for a clear signal from MCellan Index to commit additional capital or sell existing positions .

If we rally into the end of this week I’d take some more profits

Near bailing out on small investment in BAC

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH