American Workers/Taxpayers

Inequality and the Financial Crisis

MIT economic Professor Daron Acemoglu, has a fabulous worksheet on the causes of the financial meltdown and long term structural problems in the USA.

American media ignores people like Dr. Acemoglu, and instead almost always uses some paid economist from and industry and/or right wing backed think tank that is in business because to serve their backers.

Thoughts on Inequity and the Financial Crisis excerpts below from his science based analysis.

“who rules today… The rich elite like in the Gilded Age….

In the aftermath, consistent with the alternative hypothesis, many of the key financial players were bailed out, but low income house owners were not and there has been powerful political resistance to extension of unemployment benefits.”

Two Alternative’s to Obama’s

State of the Union.

Paul Krugman in NYT excerpts

Consider: A corporate leader who increases profits by slashing his work force is thought to be successful…Who, exactly, considers this economic success?…

[GE] with fewer than half its workers based in the United States and less than half its revenues coming from U.S. operations, G.E.’s fortunes have very little to do with U.S. prosperity….

The financial crisis of 2008 was a teachable moment, an object lesson in what can go wrong if you trust a market economy to regulate itself. Nor should we forget that highly regulated economies, like Germany, did a much better job than we did at sustaining employment after the crisis hit.”

Robert Reich in Common Dreams excerpts

He [Obama] should point out that the U.S. economy is now twice as large as it was in 1980 but the real median wage has barely budged…

In the late 1970s, the richest 1 percent of Americans got about 9 percent of total income. By the start of the Great Recession they received more than 23 percent. Wealth is even more concentrated….

Many thanks ti Jim J in the comments section of Friday’s blog (scroll down to comments) for bring us all stats on GE, Paul R for mentioning a Robert Reich editorial and JS for his reply.

The major issue we have to fix the problem of Jobs, Jobs, Jobs is that Globalized American companies like GE  no longer need American Labor and even more critical now they no longer need the American consumer to grow.

This is your wake up and smell the coffee moment. GE and a host of other so called “American” corporate giants are no longer American. Even though these companies originate in the USA the use of the word “American” is little more than a propaganda tool.

They are globalized corporate giants who will suck what they can from Americans (any anywhere else) for the bottom line of profits. Like it or not that’s the system.  History has show this to be true in the past. This globalization of corporate so called “America” companies is a trend that is RAPIDLY INCREASING.

Like they say “no worries its just business.”

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.41%	up
NASDQ	-0.55%	down
S&P 500	+0.24%	up
Russell 2000	-0.63%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Technology, small caps,  high Beta (fast growing), emerging markets & commodities all took it on the chin yesterday and last week. A significant correction underway
• Tech leaders AAPL & AMZN both lost 6% last week.
• Monday’s have historically been the best day of the week as earnings season continues.
• We have what may be a shift of leadership into major US companies and the too big to fail financials that enjoy government and Fed support.
• Here’s how the week sets up from Seeking Alpha’s John Nyaradi
• Still endorsing the concept that the Fed’s POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see Investors411 for past months).
• The Fed’s POMO (QE 2) is also a major factor in driving inflation in emerging markets (see Friday’s Investors411)
• From Friday - Key factor of day - Inflation fears
• Obama’s State of the Union is the big political news of the week. (Tuesday)

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The dollar is falling like a stone and that’s good for American exporting companies. There are still growing inflation fears in part brought on by our Fed’s quantitive easing. (see Friday’s Investors411)

“Don’t fight the Fed” is an old Wall Street axiom. The falling dollar and the special “gifts” shadow financials (latest example Friday GE earnings, stock up +7%)

Again many major analysts (far more renowned and knowledgeable than me) from Nyaradi (today) to a real big name DeMark last week are calling for a much more significant correction.

The falling dollar, the strength in major exporters, and the Fed ( behind these factors & pumping up financials) will keep correction minor. So if the MO dips down some more close to -60 I’ll be nibbling.

What to watch today

Dow Index - From Friday - Almost all sectors that may be negatively impacted from Emerging market inflation – high growth stocks, commodities, China, gold – have faltered this week. The big holdout is this minor meltdown are the giant Dow companies.

AAPL - breaking below its 50 Day Moving Average would be trouble. It fell -1.79% Friday & rising 50DMA is a bit over 1% lower. Look for some upside strength at its 50 DMA/support level. So the bounce or non bounce off the 50 DMA is the cutting edge today and for the week

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Positions

• UWM - (2x small cap stocks) Sold last 1/2 at 44.50 for +6% gain
• REMX - (rare earth metals) Did not sell last 1/2, but will place another 2% trailing stop on this ETF today. (already almost -2% loss on last 1/2)

Under consideration -

DDM - (2x DOW) The trend to big cap stocks is apparent. A buy ,but a bit overbought right now

UCO -(2x oil prices) All commodities, are under pressure from inflation worries in emerging markets. Sitting on 50 DMA, More cold and snow for East cost should create a bounce.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars.

FAS (3x financials) & UYG (ETF that does 2x financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Fresh Face for the Old Guard Corporations

Jobs/Candidates/Corporate Interests

Three of you in the comments section of the blog are aghast at the nomination of Republican Tea Party’s Christine O’Donnell in Delaware. You can see her lack of  qualifications on Wikipedia. Other sources are a lot harsher.

She is a far right religious person [masturbation = adultery]  a Perky Pretty Palin, & most important she has backing from the major corporations/industry groups that dominate America.

Bottom Line - There are perhaps a half dozen major old guard industry groups that are focused on one thing – profits. They use scaling and create their jobs abroad instead of at home. These giant companies gobble up smaller ones then (think Gordon Geko) then decimate the jobs of the acquired smaller company to make greater profits. Even the smaller companies in an industry group devour the start ups and diminishing their work force is a top priority. That’s the giant jobs eating food chain for America’s old guard globalized corporations.

O’donnell is perfect for Wall Street. perfect for the Koch Brothers (& other wealthy oligarchs) that finance the Tea Party, Perfect for the old guard major corporations. Perfect for religious groups & others manipulated by fear. But devastating for the job starved middle class.

Jobs/ Helping Small Business

Two Republicans broke ranks and voted with Democrats to break Republican Senate filibuster that was against helping small business. House should vote on this today or tomorrow.

“would create a $30 billion fund that the government would invest in independent community banks to encourage lending to small firms.

It would also exclude from taxes all capital gains on sales of small-business stock, and ease tax rules for expending and depreciating equipment. Tax breaks in the bill total $12 billion.” Source ultra right wing CNBC

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.44%	flat
NASDQ	+0.50%	down
S&P	+0.35%	down
Russell 2000	+0.51%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term for the Day – McClellan Index/Oscillator - From Investopedia (don’t worry if you do not understand what they are saying. EMA = Exponential Moving Average an adjusted daily moving average of price) -

“A market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. It is primarily used for short and intermediate term trading.

To calculate subtract a 39 day EMA (of advancing issues – declining issues) from a 19 day EMA (of advancing issues – declining issues).”

Investors411 uses this Oscillator because it is broad based & does NOT include volume. If you look at  the MO chart below, you’ll find a strong correlation between +60 and above showing markets overbought and -60 and below showing markets oversold. These are often the starting points for rallies or declines that last for weeks and sometimes months. Compare with the rises and fall of major US indexes. The MO works differently in different kinds of markets (bear, neutral, bull) so it needs tweaking and the +/- 60 are numbers not written in sand,

US Markets - From financial channel Volume is down 30% relative to last year on major US stock indexes. Volume no longer a decent forecasting tool for major US indexes.

Forex dominates (see yesterday’s term of the day) today’s trading. Bank of Japan yesterday dumped billions into their currency in hopes that the Yen would depreciate.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, rose  +0.43% yesterday.   For stocks trend is still =Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a  -3.40% yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. Third down day in a row with rate of fall increasing. If this continues BDI bullish trouble Right now longer term chart pattern Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell to +38.99 yesterday. Very unusual NYSE rose =0.25% yet the MO fell a minor 14%. Trend is moving lower and indicator is = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Dollar market and Japan’s intervention for the first time in six years is what’s got traders attention. Japan an exporting country has watched the Yen (their currency) go up in price making their goods cost less. Governments around the world including our Fed (Permanent Open Market Operations) are all trying to manipulate their currencies so their goods cost less and their exporters sell more.  Is this the start of a trade war?  If so, China is way ahead in currency manipulations.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore).

Trend is clearly bullish for stocks. If we can get the MO down to @ +20 (@a 100 point drop in Dow) and you can tolerate risk you could nibble. Also, of course, we get up over +60 on the MO and  a rise in the Dow/major indexes, that would be a selling or shorting point for those that can tolerate the risk. (see past Investors411)

Their are obviously safer entry/exit points, but that’s where the tea leaves tell me to start.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

1/21/2010

The Day Democracy Died

We the People , in the USA,  just became We the Corporation . In a real sense all campaign finance reform has been virtually abolished . The US Supreme Court in a partisan 5-4 decision gave corporations and their lobbyist (or any entity) the permission to spend whatever they want on any election . Any candidate who dares stand against any wealthy special interest can be threatened and overwhelmed by money in an election. For more read the lead NYT editorial The Court’s Blow To Democracy

It may take a few years for the real impact to be felt. Here are s ome examples

• Locally – Developers and corporations will be far more able to buy town and state politicians who appoint the local zoning boards and make the laws. If they want to put a strip mall next to your home and crush the value of the houses in your neighborhood they can.  Businesses on the local and state level will get to pay less taxes and YOU will have to pay more.
• Big Shadow Banks – YOU bailed out the big banks for their mistakes and they got HUGE bonuses. Forget Obama’s declaration to fight the Shadow Banks. Goldman Sachs (4.3 billion in profit last 1/4) and the other shadow banks know can throw billions at politicians that oppose any taxpayer bailout. The bailout era may have  just begun .
• Military Industrial Complex – Any weapons company knows it needs a war and fear mongering to grow profits.  Now they can spend whatever they want. The criteria for choosing a weapon will also change from its effectiveness to whichever company has the most money to intimidate a politician. If a poll doesn’t support a war/weapons system they can overwhelm him/her in a reelection with money.
• Monopoly s – The biggest winners are the biggest companies. In every industry the most powerful company rules. It will be far easier forcing smaller competitors out of business once the giant corporations own local state and national politicians. Example EXXON – The biggest corporate entity will have the most money and therefore own the most politicians. Each competitor will get shoved aside or gobbled up starting with small business and ending with their major competitors.
• Freedom -  No other functioning democracy allows the legal corporate buying of politicians . People have the power in these democracies. The corporate board rooms in the USA will be the oligarchy where decisions are made on everything from taxation to your freedom if you dare to challenge their power.
• Taxpayer – The taxpayer has been thrown under the bus.  As corporate taxes fall either deficits will grow or you will be forced to pay the difference.

There will be some corporations and individuals (perhaps Google & folks like Warren Buffett) that will work for the betterment of the world. But greed/profit is the bottom line for corporations. Your $25 contribution or work for a candidate can be overwhelmed by Exxon’s or Shadow Bank’s  $2.5 billion contribution. Our constitution centuries ago was  created for We the People – now its changed to We the Corporations. Remember yesterday 1/21/2010. If there is no change – Democracy as we know it has died.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-2.01%	up
NASDQ	-1.12%	up
S&P500	-1.89%	up
Russell2000-	-1.76%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

US stocks got toasted in HUGE volume.

Obama threw down the gauntlet at the shadow banks and stated he never wanted to see an institution that was too big to fail. "Never again will the American taxpayer be held hostage against these banks that are too big to fail."

However, the Shadow Banks now have the power (see above) & enormous amounts of money (lots of it your tax dollars) to defeat any meaningful reforms.

• McClellan Index at -49.56 = Almost significantly oversold.  Only 10 points till  @-60 or oversold.
  

Sorry, just too upset about Supreme Court decision to even think about stocks.  However, obviously, investing in the biggest corporations, in the long term will make the most money.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

The End of Democracy?

E.J. Dionne who writes primarily for the Washington Post had an editorial entitled It Could Be the End of Democracy as We Know It . LINK

What Dionne is referring to is an upcoming Supreme court decision that threatens to overrule a 1990 decision that upheld the long-standing ban on corporate money in campaigns.

Yes, McCain/Feingold legislation made it much harder for corporate giving and it still got through. However this legislation would open the floodgates.

HAVE WE so quickly forgotten the #1 lesson of the 2008 economic meltdown-that Greenspan as he admitted was wrong and “free markets” could not regulate themselves ? This week US corporations may be given unfettered access to buy politicians. Indeed as Dionne explains “President Barack Obama’s health care speech on Wednesday will be only the second most consequential political moment of the week.”

Quantum Shift in Savings

Another unheralded event is not making headlines. That the quantum shift of Americans from net borrowers to savers . Since Reagan took office and reversed the trend of diminishing national deficits (see last Thursday’s blog for data on deficits as part of GDP) The shop till you drop,go into debt up to your eyeballs era is coming to a close for the American consumer.  MSNBC reports that in July “Americans cut debt by $21.6 billion in July; $4 billion was expected” LINK

Some conclusions from this data:

• How is there a quick economic recovery if American’s save more?
• Saving more is obviously a good thing and increasing debt bad.
• Real Organic growth is going to come from outside the USA (countries like China who were huge net savers and are saving a little less now)

Financial flows like this reinforce the concept that in the USA any recovery in GDP is going to be slow to materialize and real organic growth is going to be led by emerging markets whose middle classes are growing and don’t have huge deficits.  Even countries like Germany who have been net savers and whose businesses do not worry about paying health care costs are at a distinct advantage over the USA.

This is why Investors411 focuses on foreign ETFs that have organic growth and growing economies/middle classes – Invest in where the money is and will be flowing

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	+0.59%	up
NASDQ	+0.94%	up
S&P500	+0.88%	up
Russell2000	+1.03%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Major US indexes rose again.  This time volume rose,but was still below average.  Stocks are rising because the dollar is falling. It took a massive hit yesterday.

This week , FEARLESS FORECAST - is for an up week .

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The BDI has leveled off and started to rise over the last two weeks, +33 yesterday.

Each day this looks more like a base has been formed above a key support level – Bullish short term outlook for BDI and we have certainly recovered from the devastating lows of Dec./Jan.

The BDI is 41% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost +170% from early April to Jun e

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

The dollar dropped of the table and through its major support level. It fell a whopping-1.16% % yesterday. Dollar closed at $77.26. Its  major support level is @$77.5 . Short term Bullish for stocks

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

Bottom Line – Both the BDI & the Dollar are forecasting at least a short term rally. Key to look for is can the dollar get back over its $77.5 support level.

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

Sold 1/3 (or 6% total stock) position in FXI (China) last week A Mistake . With both the dollar falling and the BDI finding technical support and rising China again looks like the place to be invested in. Investors411 has only 12% of its portfolio invested in China. Looking to now add to this position.

Individual stocks-Another reason I hate individual stocks is because an event like a big conference can impact the stock. Apple has one of those today.  Will Steve Jobs show up? How will he look, what new product will they feature? – I have no idea on how to answer these questions that will move the stock. All I know is technically it outperformed the major US markets and like NVS is at a new high.

Taking advantage of falling dollar. There is a downside to a falling dollar, especially a currency that falls like a stone. However for most American companies that rely on exports for real organic (not cost cutting) growth benefit from this.  It also inflates the prices of commodities. Its no accident that as the dollar reaches a yearly low commodities like gold, oil, and copper reach highs. So any country or commodity play looks good right now.

Right now Investors411 is caught with its pants down because we are not more fully invested in countries & sectors where the money is flowwing.

Have to update positions section (away all weekend) Investors411 problem is that we are under invested in equities. The predicted 5 to 10% correction this month almost happened last week (-4+%), but close doesn’t count.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!