The 2nd Maine Militia’s Gazette
To paraphrase the 2nd Maine Militia (See Nov. 17 blog) it’s not about left vs. right, Democrat vs Republican, but up versus down . So let’s take a look at a brand new news outlet only found here at Investors411. In the style or philosophy of the 2nd Maine Militia – here’s how their paper might look.
- Headline – Crisis in Duba i – Thousands have died (from Bangladesh, Philippines, India and other poor countries) building a wealthy playground for the uber rich Arabs. A place where wealthy Americans and Iranians can rub elbows built on the backs/lives of third world labor.
- The private company that created this years hottest American holiday present the Zhu Zhu dolls/pets has just announced a proposal for three new factories. Sorry no factories in Maine or the USA – they’re all in China.
- Front page editorial-Keeping the Masses Distracted – Will someone tell us why CNBC and CBS business news feature stories are - the selling of Michel Jackson’s rhinestone glove, the scratches on Tiger Woods face (wife or car accident) & the latest block buster teen vampire movie? This is America Corporate media news.
- Another local bank collapses . The big shadow banks that caused the financial meltdown are getting bigger with our money while their competition – the small local Maine/USA banks continue to fail in record numbers.
- Guest editorial from Robert Reich – The 3 classes of Americans – #1 Those 25% of Americans whose kids are on food stamps, #2 those Americans who are managing, but worried about loosing value of homes & jobs #3 Those few Americans who have taken home even more winnings since 2007 like Goldman Sachs executive. LINK
Some of you may think that our fictitious Gazette is over the top. It does focus on the ugly side of globalization and unregulated wealth creation (sometimes misnamed capitalism or free markets). It does pacifies the reader with obsessions about celebrity. Maybe the scratches on Tiger’s face is what will solve the humanities problems and just maybe you’ll think about forming your own 2nd Maine Militia.
KISS & STOCKS
Keep It Simple Stupid
For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis
AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!
| Index | Percentage % | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Dow | -1.48% | down |
| NASDQ | -1.73% | down |
| S&P500 | -2.10% | down |
| Russell2000 | -2.53% |
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Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500
(see results for last 1/2 year – click 6/25 & scroll down)
- Brown = repeat statements
- Green = usually bullish statements
- Red = Usually bearish statements
Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis
For the moment the Dubai economic meltdown has stabilized because oil rich Abu Dhabi has promised to bail out the over leverage Mid east playground for the ultra wealthy.
Big predictable economic news for the week is Bernanke’s approval hearings in front of congress, Obama’s more troops for Afghanistan and the monthly jobless figure on Friday
Black Friday saw a significant increase in traffic and only a o.5% gain in sales according to early reports. reports. Today is Cyber Monday where shoppers do a whole lot of on line Xmas shopping (start of the online buying season) These numbers are Bearish for retail stores. It probably means far more people were out seeking the bargains and they will do less shopping for the rest of the holiday buying season.
The dominating factor controlling stocks prices continues to be the dollar.
FEARLESS FORECAST – Last week’s fearless forecast of an up week was crushed by the Dubai crisis . Markets have rebounded from Dubai across the world and the damage seems limited in investors/traders minds. Looks like we will return to general trend of dollar down and stocks up till Friday’s job numbers. – Outloo k – flat/down week.
Coming up more on - Military escalation in Afghanistan & growing problems with Iraq. Any attack on Iraq would send the dollar higher and stocks lower . Perhaps Obama’s announcement of 30,000+ troops in Afghanistan will have same impact.
Now going to get a bit more technical
If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK
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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets
(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)
BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .
The BDI has broken out to new yearly high
The BDI fell -145 points yesterday and closed at 3994. Technically the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago. The BDI has rallied about 1900 points since late September. Now, 7 down days in a row & through the former resistance and now support level 0f 4291.
What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.
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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .
$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.
Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up
US dollar rose a HUGE +1.00% Friday . The dollar closed at $74.98 . The $75.00 support level crashed and burned on Wednesday but, T he Dubai crisis is going send money back into the dollar and out of the stock market.
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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .
The index closed at -27.62 This is approaching an Oversold Position
Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell
Positions
The Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells
I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)
From Friday – Probably going to take some profits today (sell 1/3+ positions) in FXI, EWZ, GLD & all of DGP. Hopefully, will get a chance to buy back into these positions when the McClellan Index gets oversold. Personally I did sell/take profits on 1/3 of FXI & all of DGP .
Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH/NEUTRAL
See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog
AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!
