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Democracy Dying

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Billionaire Sheldon Adelson

Donates Another $5,000,000

to Gingrich Super PAC

Yesterday’s blog detailed the vicious negative & effective character assassination assaults of the Super Pacs for both the Romney and Gingrich presidential campaigns.

Why the Super PAC’s?

because fear mongering negatives work

They Buy YOUR vote?

You can have an army of outside attack adds decimate your opponent and funded by anyone or any entity/corporation that wants to buy/own a candidate.  These hidden or transparent oligarchs buy votes, thanks to the US Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.

This week the target of Gingrich’s Super Pack will be Mitt Romney and they have plenty of fresh ammo because

Romney just released his

2010 Tax Returns.

• Romney has 13.9% Tax rate for 2010.

• Romney has/had a Swiss Bank Account.

• Romney has/had other off shore banking accounts in noted tax havens Luxembourg and the Cayman Islands

• Romney unlike his father, Obama and Biden has NOT released 10+ years of tax returns – only 1 with an estimate for 2011

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Some of the negative attack adds that are being used so far below.

Here and here and here and here

and here and here and here

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How to Fight Back

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Join United For The People

“We believe that America works best when our government is of, by and for the people. Although we have differences in scope and tactics, all of us are united in the understanding that the Court’s decision in Citizens United must be remedied by amending the Constitution in order to restore the democratic promise of America.”

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STOCKS

Back tomorrow with Stock Section

Check Out Comments Section For More

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Headlines

US, French, English warship go through Gulf of Hormuz,   Europe agrees against Iran Sanctions,   Prez addresses nation tonight,   Earnings season continues,  Overbought markets due for a pull back

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Special Note

Investors411 2012 Yearly Investment Outlook

is in the Stock Section Below

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One Big Party

The news of the morning - The first Florida prediction poll is out since South Carolina and its Newt +9%. Its only one poll, but there is a change in momentum. Its way to early to call this race.

Some interesting political analysis  ”Mitt Romney’s Misery in a Word Bain “(Politico)

Clearly Republican voters in South Carolina felt Gingrich won the debates, but there was another even more significant factor.

Super Pac Money

“There are probably less than 100 [obscenely wealthy] people fueling 90% of these Pacs”

LINK

In Iowa it was Romney’s Super Pac that spent millions on negative adds against Gingrich. He was caught flat footed. He obtained one agreeable billionaire and created his own giant super Pac They smashed Romney with negative adds in South Carolina and spent just as much money as he did.

Florida Super Pacs are already in full swing with the vast amount of money not spent on building a case for constructive ideas on how to help fix out economy, but scathing negative character assassination.

Everybody says they hate these adds, but the reality is they work. Romney beats Gingrich in Iowa by going negative with his super PAC and Gingrich beats Romney in Florida by going negative with his.

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In the last election we saw a massive amount of money go to Obama from Wall Street. Almost every progressive will tell you Obama has not delivered becuse he is influenced or ownd by big money.

Sure there is a difference between Republican views and Democrats (watch the debates) But in the end to compete with the winner of the Republican Primary Obama is going  to need his own Super Pac’s to go negative.

End result –

A group of wealthy oligarchs determine the outcome of what used to be called

Democracy

We are slowly morphing into one big party

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STOCKS

• From Friday – “We are in a low volume rally. This means the manipulators (central banks, HFT’s and other giant sharks) are in control.” Sorry I haven’t got the details on how this is happening, only a recognition of its existence (see yield rates falling below) Low volume rallies can last a long time as we saw when the Fed introduced quantitative easing (QE #! & QE #2)

• DAX down this AM 0.57% at 6:00 AM EST. Italian bond’s two week long yield fall puts it well out of the 7% danger zone at 6.13%. The Spanish and Italian bond reversal shows some economic stability returning to two of Europe’s largest economies and is bullish

• A record setting -599,000 have been eliminated from government. If these jobs were still in existence the monthly jobs growth figure would be higher.

• US corporations are sitting on more cash than ever before ($1.9 trillion) Most company profits are again beating expectations.

• Relative to the rest of the world – Japan (tsunami) India & China (GDP in decline) Europe (crisis) – the USA is outperforming (Thanks to EW for his heads up on this)

• While it may be just a little too soon to call the trend, there has been a three month surge in housing stocks The fall in housing prices was a dominant factor in the great recession.

The USA under Obama and his Fed Chair Bernanke is in a slow steady recovery with little sign of inflation on the horizon.

Later this week the Bad and the Ugly

Trust

One Republican Candidate for President stands out

far above all the others – Jon Huntsman

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Romney lashed out and tried to humiliate Huntsman for being Obama’s ambassador to China in a debate this weekend.

Remember when everyone on the right lashed out at anyone who took a stand against America’s war in Iraq as un-American or not patriotic?

Huntsman replied that’s just what’s wrong with American politics.

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“America is divided because of politics like Romney’s… Romney puts politics first…I’m someone who believes in putting America first.”

Romney is fear mongering to the fact that American’s don’t trust each other.

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If you viewed Friday’s video by Richard Wilkinson you know that Trust has a lot to do with big gap between Incomes of Americans.

Click on photo of Wilkinson below to see video

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In Wilkinson’s presentation he has one chart which compares the lack of trust in 20+ democracies.

The USA is where income disparity is greatest. So to is the mistrust among Americans greater than the mistrust among citizens of other countries with less income disparity.

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Super PAC’s

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,

How You Lose Democracy

After Romney’s super Pac decimated Gingrich in Iowa, it seems Newt got a billionaire to fund a super PAC and is going after Romney in South Carolina. Story in NYT and here

I’m sure Obama will have his super PAC if he is to compete.

Bottom Line

Democracy is being bought by the uber weathy and corporate oligarchy. Money buys negative campign adds that pounds the negative message home and buys the vote

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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• The correlation between Europe and the USA is still weakening, but still significant. The Bulls are gaining more control in the USA. For three days US markets have done better than European – A trend bullish may be starting in US

• Earnings season traditionally starts after the bell with Alcoa’s earnings report

• Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +29.55 . 50DMA at +2.02  =NEUTRAL

• The European Central Bank intervened to support Italian bonds, but the yield is still just over the danger zone 7%.  Today’s news

• Check out links below for more accurate picture of how US markets will be influenced by Europe. Germany dominates, but Italy is significant.

Reasoning – The last time the Euro (European currency) was in such trouble was the summer of 2010, This crisis is worse and the ECB (European Central Bank) is lowering interest rates to fight it.

It also acts as a hedge for the long term dividend stocks I have. It Europe shrinks or collapses, the USA markets and dividend stocks will be negatively impacted.

The euro goes down usually means the US dollar goes up. They are the #1 & 2 currencies in the world and, therefore, pegged against each other. This makes the cost of US goods more abroad and hurting major US exporters.

Why this won’t happen.

• It would lower unemployment and increase Obama’s chances of reelection – Republicans will therefore stall.
• It does NOT help the giant conglomerates who outsource their jobs overseas.
• The Too big to fail and other major US Companies are mega lobbyists who rule almost all Republicans and many Democrats by controlling media and campaign contributions.

You will see congress vote on a tax break for mega overseas corporate profits before you will see them help the engine of growth – small business in the USA.

Much More on The Civil War to come

Small Businesses, Taxpayers Get Shafted

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

The McClellan Oscillator

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Market momentum is obviously to the downside. Fundamentals matter. In this case its the news coming out of Europe - CNBC & WSJ However both the MO and the PCR are telling us that we are getting ready for at least a short term reversal.

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

LONGER TERM POSITIONS

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

Traders - If we get another strong move down today I would consider going long in a leveraged index ETF.  Technically, because we are so oversold and approaching support, any dip down close to support should hold.  It’s a risk, and you could get overwhelmed by some bank failure in Europe. However, if we get that MO to -60 and below we should get at least a technical bounce.

Investors - It’s sure better to nibble when the stock market is 20% down than when it was higher.  The Caution, of course is the breakdown through support for the major indexes. My best read of Tea Leaves is that it would take a major bank meltdown for this to happen. FT Link on this possibility.  A downgrade is NOT a meltdown, but there is risk.

Greece is going to default at some time and in some way. They have an interest rate near 50% on their 2 year gov’t bond. We have an under 2%interest rate. That 50% rate is unsustainable for Greece. The problem is derivatives taken on the debt and the shadow financial system, like Lehman and so many others, make this crisis worse. Many want this to happen sooner rather than later so we can stop twisting in the wind.

Bottom Line – If we have another meltdown today, technicals will show an overbought market. If we get to OMG oversold levels the technical Tea Leaves put the odds even more in YOUR favor to Buy.

Paul has said this is not a market to be in. He’s right unless you are protected (Puts or ETF’s that short the market) But, when everyone else has panicked there is no one left to sell. It’s hard to call a bottom exactly, but the Investors411 portfolio will nibble and risk a long position in a leveraged ETF if oversold and better OMG oversold conditions exist.

Positions

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock –a 14% dividend

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Bought at 167.05 last week - Sold 1/2 for 180.4 (see comments section of blog on Friday) Almost +8% profit.

From yesterday - There are simply too many calls out there on GLD. Ripe for a bear raid by HFT’s. Investors411 also likes to take a 5 to 10% profit and let the rest ride. Last reason – Gold should have gone way up as stocks went way down.

There is a major political battle going on over gold. Sides

• The US government and most companies/banks want the US dollar to be the “fiat” currency of the world.  If everything is traded to the dollar standard is gives us a major advantage.  We can conduct our monetary policy independent of exchange fluctuations.

• The other side is China (plus other countries) and the Tea Party/Ron Paul who want gold to be the standard for the world.

Xinhua, China’s official news agency - “International supervision over the issue of U.S. dollars should be introduced and a new, stable, and secured global reserve currency may also be an option to avert a catastrophe caused by any single country.”

There are some major government/Fed/Commodity Exchange manipulators of gold prices. Often when gold declines in the USA you will see it bounce back in Asia overnight. This is probably due to Chinese intervention.

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts half of dividend stocks I own. I also use leveraged ETF’s TZA & SDS to minimize downside risk or make a profit. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I will be purchasing additional YSL #5 stocks when we have a lower MO.*

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Yankee Bob Is Back

Yankee Bob editorial below.

Bob is an artist out of North Carolina and a big fan of the 2nd place NY Yankees

What kind of democracy does not act on the will of it’s people and instead, actively thwarts the will of the majority ? What kind of Beacon of Hope can we be if on issue after issue the will of the people is ignored and now we have Presidential Contenders pretending that Corporations are people??!!

The people in poll after poll want

• The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to end.
• More protection for the environment.
• More regulation and inspection for our food,water and air.
• To raise taxes on the Rich and to make corporations pay a fair share
• They favor restrictions on corporate donations in elections and do not share the idea that corporations are people with full Constitutional Rights
• They want the right to collective bargaining and they favor unions.
• They don’t care about the deficit nearly as much as they do about job creation.
• They want Social Security,Medicare and Medicaid extended and defended not taken apart.
• They want the Republicans to compromise and Obama to fight for this agenda not to cave in and compromise it all away.
• They favor choice over restricted abortion rights
• They favor equality for gays, not oppression.
• They favor voting rights over fake cries of voter fraud.
• They don’t want public education cut or privatized
• They favor an intensive commitment to alternative fuels and transportation and energy usage over our reliance on fossil fuels. Yet nothing is happening even though the technology exists
• They want green energy and green jobs but nothing is happening.
• They want jobs not cuts in everything they hold dear.

It doesn’t seem to matter what the people want or need. We are getting nothing. At Nuremberg,Hermann Goering was quoted that the will of the people did not matter at all. The leaders will decide the important issues and then they will use the press and PR to make them think that what we decide was their will.

Goering said – Every country does that. What kind of democracy is this where the will of the people is subverted ? We need a Roosevelt in the White House and Obama is no Roosevelt.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• France, Italy & Spain have banned short selling to avoid a run on banks for next 15 days. This was done in defiance of EU regulators LINK

• Going Postal – US post office may cut another 120,000 – Post office has cut 110,000 over last few years. LINK

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -29.61 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold). The MO just inched out of oversold territory. There’s wiggle room for stocks to move either way = Neural

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Stocks are moving on headlines and that move is exaggerates by all the HFT trading.

From yesterday Bottom Line - Lows were certainly retested yesterday. So the stage is technically set for some kind of oversold rally.

Today’s Bottom Line - Technically because of the retest of the low and strong momentum higher HFT’s will take markets higher.  Headlines still rule and HFT traders can react instantly and with great volume to headlines.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The recent Washington debt crisis debacle has focused everyone on cutting the money supply.  Simple math – The less money that’s out there = less jobs = greater chance the “Great Recession” returns. European debt and emerging market’s inflation fears add to this.

• Long Term Outlook Listed Below.  Major long term trend (monthly) lines that have been broken. LINK If the Fed does some type of QE #3 – this also could get us back to cautiously bullish LINK

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Look for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip. Gold dipped dramatically yesterday -2.19%, but at one point was down @4%. The CME group changed margin requirements on gold, and this might be a one day delayed reaction. Also sure looks like GLD had its climax run and could be settling.

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on most of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some (sold some yesterday) SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Reagonomics/Democracy

Paul Craig Roberts is one of the founders of Reaganomics and on Max Keiser’s show (video) had the following to say about the global financial crisis.

The Money Quotes -

“The west prides itself that it is the standard for the world, that it is a democracy. But nowhere do you see democratic outcomes: not in Greece, not in Ireland, not in the UK, not here, the outcomes are always to punish the innocent and reward the guilty…

There is no democracy, there are oligarchies, some of these smaller European countries are not even run by their own governments, they are run by Wall Street…

Revolution is the only answer…

We are confronted with a curious situation. Throughout the west we think we have democracy, we hold ourselves up high, we demonize China, we talk about the mafia state of Russia, we talk about the Arabs and so on, but where is the democracy here?”

Just how far to the radical right this nation has turned when the founder of Reaganomics tells us China has more democracy than the USA and calls for revolution.

Your Comments

• Too Big To Fail lived up to its promise on HBO last night with  A little too much spinning of bankers and Paulson who caused the crisis as heroes. But the postscript was most alarming. Now interconnected shadow banks are even  bigger – only 10 banks have 77% of the capital in the USA. Of course there are no serious pieces of legislation to prevent what happened from happening again – the last minute intervention to prevent the meltdown of the world’s financial system

• Yankee Bob has another editorial (Link and scroll down) The money quote – “What Bush and his gangsters did is too important to ignore. And to ignore it is to allow the precedent to stand for future use.”

• Jim J has a link to a 60 Minutes Interview of Tom Drake (use above link to read other comments on this) Popeye money quote – One big reason 911 happened and Bush never got bin Laden is because of the corruption and mismanagement of the NSA. They had a $3 million dollar program that the whistleblowers [Drake} wanted, but decided to go with a $1.2 billion program sub contracted to private industry that didn't work and had to be cancelled in 2006.

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose SIGNIFICANTLY  AGAIN on Monday +0.68%. The Dollar bulls  are back, and momentum could carry the dollar higher and stocks lower = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -49.17 This is almost exactly April’s low although March’s low reached -90 US stocks moderately oversold = Bullish/Neutral (trying to show a lot more bullish and just a tad neutral.

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Paul’s Corner

Paul’s Corner

Buy and Hold, Dividends, Better Stocks?

As we all know these past few months have been tough to make money trading stocks, I don’t care who you are, it’s been tough. With the stomach wrenching moves of the market of late folks have been asking for “longer term better stocks” and “dividend stocks” thinking that is what is needed so your lunch doesn’t turn into a bad meal at Taco Bell.

Last fall when Your Stock List 3 was introduced, the stocks sat still for a few weeks and then at the start of September the market took off on a wonderful bull run and YSL 3 enjoyed the ride with a very good gain. As they say “a good time was had by all“.

Several of the stocks didn’t make the ride so a few were dropped and a few new member requested stocks were added and the new list was introduced about the same time the market peaked and immediately took a 7%  correction.

Since then due to market rotation, the run and decline of the oils, the collapse of silver etc, the market and YSL 4 has essentially been flat. So is YSL dead? Is the market dead? Of course not, most of the YSL 4 charts actually looked quite good until yesterday’s sell off and the market does what it always does, it baffles one and all and will continue to do so for years to come.

So what has changed in “Your Fathers Stock Market” so we can no longer buy and hold? Be an investor rather than a trader? Well as much as I like to joke about Jim Cramer and his lousy recommendations (Say silver a few weeks back) he had a very good video last week about what  the market is now and what has changed since your dad selected his latest pick with a pencil circling a stock symbol in his favorite news paper.

LINK

So do we complain the good old days of buy and hold or over, or do we get with the program and realize paying attention, has replace complacency?

YSL 4 chart reviews will be made as necessary and added to the comments section as the week goes on so check over there from time to time.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Photo from Common Dreams

Chris Hedges is a graduate of Harvard Divinity School and a 2 decade long correspondent for the NYT – also CSM, DMN, & NPR. The Acadamy Award Winning Film – The Hurt Locker opened with a quote from a Hedges’ book.

One can defend may things about capitalism. However, Hedges writes a potent editorial that starts -

“When did our democracy die?”

You may think this introduction is over the top, because the fact that I’m bringing you his words shows that the flame of democracy still burns. However,  Hedges does make many substantive points that are thought provoking.

• “When did the press, labor, universities, the Democratic part.. wither and atrophy”
• Is “corporate power” … “inverted totalitarianism?”
• Over decades – “a massive redistribution of wealth.”
• “These [corporate] elites do not have a vision [of democracy] . They know only one word—more.”
• The money quote -

“although the heads of state or elected officials in Congress have become largely irrelevant. Lobbyists write the bills. Lobbyists get them passed. Lobbyists make sure you get the money to be elected. And lobbyists employ you when you get out of office. Those who hold actual power are the tiny elite who manage the corporations“

What do YOU think?

Is Democracy Dead?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• All eyes on silver trade yesterday and today as climax buying (LINK to definition) reached a peak yesterday and a meltdown in foreign markets this AM.
• Stocks continued to have abysmal volume, despite the fact that we are in the middle of earnings season.
• Low volume gives Fed’s quantitative easing more influence to move markets up.
• US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for stocks in short term.
• Good contrarian article on the possibility of a dollar rally. This would hurt stocks. Do see possibility of short term rally.
• News of the week  - Bernanke speaking after the Fed Meeting Wednesday (Thanks to EW for mentioning this in comment section of blog)
• What investors want to hear from Bernanke is more quantitative easing or QE 3.
• The big longer term news is the ramification if the dollar continues to fall (See editorial above)

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   -0.17 yesterday. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to +10.47. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

For Silver and Gold investors - Obviously  these commodities went elliptical or had a climax run. or a blowoff top yesterday. Translation – So many investors bought silver that it ran out of buyers. See SLV chart below and look at the big volume SLV on last Thursday & Friday and the record massive volume yesterday. Look at how far above its 50 day moving average (blue line on chart) SLV is.

Silver is the leader and gold went along for the ride. So it too is taking a hit in sympathy with silver.

Since its peak Sunday night SLV is down almost 10% as I write.

The fundamentals, as described yesterday, have not changed. However, we have to wait for the bears to take a bite out of gold and silver before getting back in. Simply too many folks pilled in too quickly. Perhaps the dust will settle today/a week/ a month/ longer. This is much harder to predict than a climax run. Because the fundamentals are so strong, I look for a shorter rather than longer meltdown.

For Stock Investors – It’s the middle of earnings season and volume was abysmal. That means the Fed’s quantitative easing rules and the bulls have the momentum. One very significant point is the dollar did not rally as silver fell from yesterday’s high. Perhaps it will today and this will negatively impact stocks. Sometimes there is a delayed reaction.

Bottom line is that the dollar down/stocks up trends are still in place, but may be in correction for the next day or two. Bernake’s, first time Fed chair speaks after a FOMC meeting, on Wednesday is a market mover.

For long term traders and everyone –  Arnold, the Terminator’s, famous words for gold/silver – “ I’ll be back” invested in silver/gold. We had a year’s run compressed into a month.

The learning part of all of this is sell into a climax run. Judging from the comments section lots of you did just that.

CONGRATULATIONS

NB – Check out chart of REMX. (Rare Earth Metals) It too had a climax run around New Years day. It reached a high of  @27, then and is now over 28. Consolidating gains after breaking out to a new high.

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers.

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA.
• SLV – Went elliptical and in meltdown

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Positions

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

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The Winter Democracy Bloomed

The desire for self government, jobs and bread has exploded across the Arab world. In over a dozen countries people are demonstrating for basic human rights. Perhaps the biggest looser in all of this is Islamic fundamentalism and al Qaeda, because the cries of the people are not for religious fundamentalism, but for the common human dignity that we all share. Demonstrators are putting their lives on the line for democracy.

Libya and Iraq are the latest to have demonstrations. Today the NYT focuses on American reaction to Egypt, Bahrain and Iran’s demonstrations

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Shadow Banks Rule

The Chamber of Commerce and Shadow Banks were caught with their hands in the cookie jar,  just as a congressional committee was to convene to amend rules on “casino capitalism.”  How ironic it is that over a 1000 bankers were issued jail terms in the Savings and Loans crisis decades ago and NONE have over the 2008 meltdown.  That’s how powerful the shadows and their lobbyists have become.

Andrew Ross Sorkin from NYT story and MIT prof Simon Johnson. – Derivatives Industry Report Collapses.

But that’s just for openers – The Chamber of Commerce & their shadow allies are not beyond investigating the families of critics and printing false accusations. If you support Wikileaks or speak out against The Chamber, BAC or those who want to run capitalism in the shadows this could happen to you. Glenn Greenwald reports.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Nothing’s change much in overall outlook since Monday. Short term because yesterday’s moderate loss the McClellan Index is at a  more buyable level of  +6.97. But not yet near levels bulls would like. The bubble-icious stock market continues.

So today were going to focus on technical analysis. I call technical analysis looking at the pretty pictures/charts of  a stock’s price and volume and being able to make a forecast of future directions from those charts.

Stockcharts.com, the best free site on technical analysis on the web has a school/tutorial that will help you learn more about it.

Technical analysis works best when the markets, the sector and then the individual stock are in alignment or moving in the same direction.  The sum is greater than the parts, but in most cases it the individual stocks that matters most.

So here’s a list compiled by Paul R who has oodles of experience in technical analysis and uses a powerful HSGI program to augment his technical analysis skills.

Below is Your Stock List #3 and Paul’s recommendations. Most importantly use this a a learning  tool it technical analysis. He published it in the comments section of the blog a day ago, so its a bit dated and I’m sure he wants you to read his mea culpa. You can look up each chart pattern by inserting appropriate ticker symbol at Stockcharts.com. (link above) - His comments in Green and technical analysis below.

“In no way am I recommending a buy or sell of any of these stocks. These comments are for education only. (Understand?)

BIDU – getting extended, a hold and not a buy at the moment.

NFLX – getting extended, a hold and not a buy at the moment.

BEXP – went through a buy the dip correction in late January. Broken out, buy if it dips.

JNPR – leader in it’s group, broken out from a strong base, extended now, buy if it dips.

SKWS - Good chart, extended, buy the future dip.

KSU - Good chart, extended, buy the future dip.

DECK – Gone through a correction as has it’s group, buy the future dip.

PCLN - good chart, buy any dip

COH – Gone through a correction as has it’s group, buy the future dip

IMAX – basing, buy any dip if you want as long as if it’s above the 50.

SOHU – broken out, way too extended for my stomach. Not a good chart, it needs to tighten up.

IVN – basing, buy at any time at current chart position

ALV – basing along with it’s group at the moment. NOT buyable at the moment.

SAM – basing, sitting on the 50, buyable at any time

SPRD – Good chart, wee bit extended, wait until it touches the 17 dma again.

FFIV – NOT buyable at the moment, chart needs some serious work.

These observations are just that, observations. My observations are usually worthless. If you buy any of these dogs…blah blah blah. Did I mention these comments are for education only? Pay attention for crying out loud!”

An additional comment from Paul on how to Buy the Dip

Always watch the comments section for different ideas and comments on stocks, economics, trends and politics.

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Positions

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Look for Paul R‘s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

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Egypt

Day 18

Peaceful demonstrations have spread to other areas of Cairo and Egypt. Al Jazeera continues to be the best source on the Pro democracy REVOLUTION in Egypt.

The people in the street realize the power they have in Egypt and it is indeed a power that can change the world.  As many have pointed out, (see comments section of blog) Mubarak’s narcissistic address to the nation did not play well with the pro democracy demonstrators.

So many peacefull protestors have given so much blood in the name of democracy in Egypt that it’s hard not to be transfixed by this transformative moment in the history of the world. So today’s blog today is abbreviated.  I’m watching Al Jazeera and other outlets along with many of you.

Back on Monday with hopefully a victory for democracy and a better world. Keep an eye on the comments section for any changes in both the Egyptian revolution and stocks

LONG LIVE DEMOCRACY AND FREEDOM!

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

Same Positions and outlook as yesterday. Link here

• Monday has usually a good day for stocks over the last few months. So there may be some upside at the end of Friday.
• UUP – the tracking ETF for the dollar is perhaps the best forecast tool for daily market movement.
• The worries that are most pressing at this time- Emerging Market Inflation, European Debt & keeping Suez canal open.
• The Fed’s liquidity tsunami still rules the US stock market.

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Positions

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

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