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Happy New Year &

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Fireworks over 2011 Stock Results

Dividend Stocks up 19% YTD

Over the next few trading days Investors411 will go over the stock results for 2011, which again beat the S&P 500.

Today - Dividend Stocks

Lots more information on the Positions page (section 2A)

Early this year Investors411 started putting together its Recommended Dividend Portfolio. The last Part “below 4% growth” was finished 7/3.

These results are for the year (one day short) – simply because it was very easy to get results for the year. During the same period the benchmark S&P results were about even (depending on today)

The 6 month result, of course, are probably  about  50% lower, but the S&P benchmark was also down about -6% since early July.  Each ticker symbol is linked to a 6 month chart so you can check out those results too.

Guesstimate is that its around +8 0r 9% vs. -6% for S&P for those 6 months.

Many of members on the mail list and frequent commenters made $$$ using the dividend list.

• The Dividend List was by far the most talked about and worked on part of Investors411 Longer Term Portfolio.
• Your Stock List was our most talked about and worked on Shorter Term Portfolio.

Here’s the List of Investors411

Recommended Dividend  Stocks

• Ticker symbols link to charts.
• First number is the yearly dividend,
• Second is the stock price (rise or fall)
• Third bolded number is the combination of the two.

• KMP 6.11%   +19.29% = +25.39%
• T 5.50% –  +2.84 = +8.34%
• WIN 7.42%  – 16.83 = -9.41%
• SNH 6.63%   +4.01 = +10.63%
• DUK 5.24% +23.61 = +28.85%
• D 4.09%  +28.21 = +32.29%
• PGN 5.27% +28.21 = +33.48%
• HCN 5.58%  +13.65 = +19.44%
• MO 5.64%  +20.80  = +26.44
• HTD 5+%  +16.80 = +21.80+
• BMO 4.48%  -5.97 = -1.49
• ABV 4.58%  +18.75 = +23.33

Below 4% but with price growth potential

• CVX 3.03% +16.20 = +19.23%
• MCD 3.10   +30.29 = +33.39%
• PM 3.73%  +34.14 = +37.87%
• GIS 2.90%  +14.70 = +17.60%

Ultra High dividend

• NLY 13.5%  -9.70 =  +3.85
• AGNC 19.0%  -1.90 =  +17.01

Investors411 will continue with this diversified group of dividend stocks into 2012. Dividend stocks and Bonds outperformed the S&P in 2011 and will continue to do so unless we enter a strong bull.

Why dividend Stocks & Bonds beat the S&P

People looked at the low treasury rate, had fear of volatility in stocks with QE 2 ending and thought why not hold a stock/bond that produces a dividend higher than inflation or treasuries.

As long as treasuries, inflation stay low Dividend stocks will produce. Our Fed has promised low rates for 2012 and introduced operation twist, so Dividend stock should continue to do well.

To come – More Investors411 Model portfolio results –  Conservative (dividend ETF’s), Moderate, Aggressive and Your Stock List results. You can get an advanced look by going to POSITIONS Section of blog.

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

• My favorite way of looking this is to choose a handful of stocks and buy when the MO dips. The lower the better.

• Paul often comments on these stocks in the comments section of the blog.

• This new list will replace YSL#4 in the POSITIONS section of blog today

Obviously we can’t guarantee anything and you take this advice at your own risk

See Paul’s Corner at bottom of blog for

YSL #5

• Dividend Stocks – Because may of you like dividend stocks for the long term – Here, from Seeking Alpha is 3 favorite high yield dividend plays, It include one favorite AGNC at 18.8% dividend.

Sure Looks Like Bears are coming back

Illustration – Mark Matcho/Mother Jones

Corporate America is flush with cash and profits are up 22% this year. Instead of an editorial, here are three charts showing what’s happening to growth, productivity, wealth, &  JOBS in the USA and other major democracies. You be the judge.

Rich Get Richer and  You Get Scraps

Growth is Back

But Not Jobs in USA

These are just three of a dozen eye popping and credibly sourced  charts found in Mother Jones. You can see where American jobs are going at the MJ Link. A WSJ chart will be featured tomorrow with this info.

Other democracies protect their workers, have far stronger unions, and unions work with both companies and their federal government to protect jobs and company profits.

Here working class Americans “fight over scraps on the table” and blame each other while the uber wealthy get richer.

A number of you have pointed out in the comments section on the victory for Gay rights/marriage in NY.  Popeye quotes the latest Gallop poll shows 52% to 43% now favor the NY approach as long as religious beliefs are respected.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Reading The Tea Leaves Longer Term -On May 20th The long term outlook was downgraded and then again on June 7th.  A rough translation of this is 4 to 6 months there is a strong possibility that  the benchmark S&P will end up 10 to 20% off its high. There are two foreseeable economic problems that might cause us to reach 20% or a larger meltdown.

1. Europe mishandling of their debt crisis – The bottom line is do European banks stay strong or is their a run on them because of the debt problem?This problem has been exacerbated by the 2008 financial meltdown
2. Default on American debt – America’s role as a world leader and financial model has been seriously eroded in the past decade.  Polarized American politicians are playing a high stake game of chicken with the national debt and the remaining credibility of our financial/economic model in the eyes of the world.

Long term the later is probably a bigger problem.

Shorter Term Outlook.

• European Debt crisis – Legendary Investor George Soros and latest (probably a good long term move, but Not for stocks) EU raises capital requirements for banks

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to -14.81 (below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) Repeat - The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months.  The last low was close to -70 and the MO has a way to go before reaching that.  = Neutral

• $USD The Dollar rose  significantly +o.48% Friday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator)  The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. The dollar is now at new short term high For stocks short term trend = Bearish

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term - Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting. The whole roller coaster ride ride of the last two weeks is a big spring. winding.

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A Long Term Portfolio

Many Thanks to The Critic for sharing her portfolio. The Critic has been with Investors411 from the start and is a frequent contributor to the comments section.  The Critic is an executive at a major company.

The Critic largest position is in cash and has stated many times in the comments section that she has protected much of the below portfolio like JS by using Puts & short ETF’s (see comments section)  I’ve been working with Critic and another person in developing the lists of dividend stocks as long term investments. Again Many Thanks for sharing .

Disclosure I own many o the below positions.[Editor]

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Barr, most of these stock have done well since the start of the year, but the future is clouded.  Just remember to tell people that I’ve bought protection because of the potential risks ahead and I buy the dip. If you want to use them for Your Stock List feel free. Like all dividend stocks I choose only those that have flat or increased dividends.

• NLY – Biggest fish in the high dividend group. Jim Cramer loves this stock.
• AGNC - Little fish in the same group.
• CVX - Oil Company with small dividend. Much better than Exxon because it buys back far less of its stock to prop up stock price.
• MCD – Giant Food Company with smaller dividend.
• KMP – Limited partnership – Tax considerations here, but I know the company and like it.
• T – Phone company and a big one.
• WIN – Phone company and a small one with higher dividend.
• SNH – Buys senior properties. Unless badly managed this area has to expand.
• DUK – This is my energy play
• HCN – Health Care REIT
• HTD - An ETF from John Hancock – Some tax advantages here.

These are the major dividend stocks in my portfolio. I have a some smaller position. and non related mutual and bond  funds. I own these long term because I don’t have time to watch markets day to day and for tax reasons.  Hope this helps.

PS – Barr, please remind people about risk.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago.

Repeat longer Strategy remains -

• Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
• Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

If/when we break the recent lows of the S&P 500 that little bit of NEUTRAL still in the forecast will vanish

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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Dividend Stocks

The 10 year Treasury bond is now under 3%. There is some obvious risk in holding growth stocks though the summer (end of QE #2, Debt ceiling crisis, & emerging market inflation) So where does the money that’s out there in the system go? I believe dividend stocks, becuse of their stability, cash rich banace sheets, and second stream of income (the dividend) offer a reasonable choice.

If things become extremely bad these stocks will loose money. Check out Investors411 posts in May on dividend stocks.

Chuck Carnevale from Seeking Alpha believes holding dividend stocks is preferable to bonds right now. His editorial contains a list of 20 dividend stocks to consider. The link is to page 2 of his editorial.

Like some who write into the comment section, I have protected  these stocks with puts or calls on ETF’s that short market indexes.

I don’t plan on holding these stocks forever, If the money supply gets tightenes (something that will happen if the Tea Party ideology wins out) I’d sell. Below is a list, like Carnevale’s to consider if you want to buy and hold for longer periods of time.

Here’s a list of what I, my family, or the non profit I invest for  own

Personally, now, about 30 to 50% of my portfolios are dividend stocks and ETF’s

• NLY – higher dividend/higher risk
• AGNC – higher dividend/higher risk
• ANH – (small position) higher dividend/higher risk
• CTL (telecom)
• T (telecom)
• VZ (telecom)
• WIN (telecom)
• SNH senior housing
• KMP (limited partnership has tax implications)
• HTD ETF  (has tax advantages)
• CVX – Chevron
• DVY – ETF (Dow Dividends)
• SDY – ETF (S&P Dividends)

Amounts of money are diversified by asset class. Example – I own less of the 4 telecom stocks individually than other stocks because together they are so similar.

Will probably buy on dip the following to diversify.

• DUK - Almost there. (energy)
• D (energy)
• MO (tobacco)
• PM (tobacco)
• KMB (food)
• PG (consumer staples)

I don’t like the drug companies, because of the uncertainty. – If a major drug has side effects, that stock can tank quickly.

Caution – Most of these are too high right now. Buy the dip.

A Tide Turns

Last night as the crowd chanted MEDICARE,MEDICARE, MEDICARE Democrat Kathy Hochul proclaimed victory in a heavily Republican district in her race for congress. THE issue was Republican Paul Ryan’s plan on Medicare. Investors411 has already reviewed Ryan’s unpopular voucher plan that the non partisan CBO says will cost you more and cover less.

Her 5+% decisive win in a district that has a 6+% majority of Republicans is covered by Politico and Huffington Post There was a third Tea Party (former Democrat) candidate in the race who got 9% of the vote, but polls showed as his support tumbled Hochul’s rose.

So Democrats have an issue for the 2012 election. Headline from NYT Democrat Wins G.O.P. Seat; Rebuke Seen to Medicare Plan

None of this is going to matter unless we first educate and find decent jobs for working Americans.

None of this will matter if politicians from both parties keep bowing before a corporate oligarchy that feeds off the public trough to the tune of trillions of dollars. Example – Fed has quietly purchased about $2.5 trillion in toxic assets using Maiden Lane program.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell yesterday -0.34% after two straight days of significant gains. The moderate loss doesn’t make up for the two significant rally days or the week+ long major rally before that.  The dollar is fundamentally moving higher  because the Euro is weakening. The Dollar bulls  are back, and momentum could carry the dollar higher and stocks lower = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO was basically flat. Closing price  -48.57 This is almost exactly April’s low although March’s low reached -90 US stocks moderately oversold = Bullish/Neutral (trying to show a lot more bullish and just a tad neutral.

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Positions

The silver/gold trade is back – If you like high risk,  and can stand a quick 7 to 10% hit, this may be a good trade. Buy The Dip. The CME Group can kill any rally by raising margin rates, so there is added risk. Therefore short term trade.

• I bought SLV from yesterday as part of Investors411 at 35.09 hypothetical portfolio. REMX other holding in portfolio.
• Will start to consider ETF’s that short stocks, but waiting for rally/bounce off oversold (see MO) levels.
• Again a warning for holders of YSL #4. These stocks have a higher beta and tend to do better in bull, but worse in bear markets. Exit positions in any rally.

Disclosure - I have a long term position in GLD for a senior center and member of my family. I also own some SLV from a covered call position bought over two months ago.

Caution - AGQ (2X leveraged silver ETF) does not exactly tracks silver. There are opening and closing distortions. Contact me if you want to know more. Same for ZSL (double short silver) DGP is double long gold.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Too Big To Fail

Tonight at 9:00PM Andrew Ross Sorkin’s account of the 2008 financial meltdown comes to life in an HBO Movie.(Trailer) Rave reviews, All Star cast, and what looks to be a chilling account of the arrogance of Wall Street and how close we came to a meltdown.

An economics lesson from hell as entertainment.

It’s a shame that more will see the movie adaptation than read the book, but that’s our culture. You know where I’ll be at 9:00 PM.

Europe on The Brink

Each day Europe inches closer to the brink of a fiscal meltdown. There are those in Europe and the USA (Republicans) who insist on “claiming that defaulting on U.S. [or European] debt would be no big deal “— This is truly frightening.

Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman When Austerity Fails (NYT today) goes over that and other myths that obviously haven’t worked to solve Europe’s current problems

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Dividend Stocks

If stocks get toasted or flatten, stocks with a second stream of income – a dividend – usually suffer too. It’s the dividend that makes them outperform most other categories. Earlier we covered the ultra high dividend stocks (NYL & AGNC). Today two sectors of relatively high dividend plays.

Notes –

• DailyFinance.com has a history of payouts for dividend stocks for the past 5 years. (Click on Dividends near top of column on left)
• DUK – A Utility I forgot to mention Friday, has a 5.16% dividend.
• * Indicates or someone in my family owns this stock
• Buy the dip

Tobacco

• *MO – 5.48% dividend, Simply put – people across the world are addicted to tobacco. This stock is almost always on a top 10 list of dividend stocks. Marlboro etc.. For 5 years the dividend has been flat of higher.
• RAI – 5.40% Winston etc.. Another stock that has raised dividends for 5 straight years. Lawsuits – The double standard – Tobacco companies fill government coffers with tax dollars so litigation is often curtailed.
• PM - 3.65% Not as high a dividend, but the story is this international company was spun off from MO in anticipation of US litigation against tobacco companies. Again always flat or raising dividends over last 5 years

Telecom

• *T – 5.50% This whole group benefits from all the new tech toys and apps that use their services. 5 years of steady dividend growth. AT&T
• *VZ -5.23 Another stock with a 5 year dividend growth record. Verizon
• *WIN 7.22% Smaller than the two above giants. 4 3/4 years of the same dividend. Windstream

Do your own homework on these stocks. The above is an outline. Consider protection(see above) and be conscious of overall market conditions when investing.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose SIGNIFICANTLY Friday  +0.74% yesterday. The Dollar bulls  are back, and momentum could carry the dollar higher and stocks lower = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -20.22. Just a tad move oversold, but lots of room to run on both sides. = Neutral

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Positions

• In light of the Long Term Outlook call Friday, I sold 1/2 of REMX (Rare earth metals ETF) at basically what it was bought for.  Still have a lot of confidence in this area.  But it will take a hit if the summer is down.
• Investors411 favorite long term  favorite IMAX probably had a good weekend.  The Pirates movie opened lower than others, but close to 1/2 the revenue was 3D and IMAX charges a premium. Still have faith in this stock because of its solid fundamental story – Lots more potential 3D hits on the way this summer. Shrek opens in 3D this weekend
• As stated on Friday YOUR Stock List will be negatively impacted by the change in long term outlook.

Disclosure - I have positions in IMAX & REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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Le Scandal

Dominique Strauss-Kahn sex scandal “is a seismic event for the IMF and a major development for French presidential politics. But the implications for the eurozone crisis are probably being overdone.”

Strauss-Kahn is the head of the IMF and the leading contedner for the French Presidency. He was caught by police in a NYC hotel sex scandal with a maid. As head of the IMF he is obviously a mega player in financial circles with plenty of  friends and enemies. This is coming at a time Europe is in the middle of some crucial debt negotiations with Greece and other member states. Imagine Ben Bernanke caught with his pants down.

Perhaps the only saving grace is he was expected to resign to run for the presidency of France

More

• NPR
• AJC – Atlanta (latest)

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a significant +0.71% Friday.  Dollar bulls are on a big run that started 7 trading days ago. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo fell to -14.56. Still in the middle of its range. Almost equal room to rally or fall = Neutral

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Dividend Stocks

Part 3

Europe’s in trouble, Japan’s in crisis, unemployment remains high in the USA so its natural for investors to turn toward more defensive stocks and cash. Investors when they are worried tend to favor more defensive stocks. Example – People are addicted to cigarettes, they won’t stop smoking when times get tough, and those stocks also have a second stream of income – So a dividend stock often outperforms.

Today, because of time limitations I’m just going to print a lists of dividend stocks I own or am considering.  Investors411 will go over each one individually in the coming weeks and probably a couple more.  Some of the stocks have more growth potential and lower dividends others have higher dividends and perhaps less growth potential.

Caution – Not all of these are in a position to BUY right now. The list is NOT in order of preference. * denotes my family owns this stock.

Higher dividends – Ticker symbol and last dividend paid listed below – All of the below have flat or growing dividends over 3 years, many longer. Highest dividend stocks were covered last week.

• MO – 5.64%
• PM  -  3.73%
• KMP* – 6.11%
• EPD – 5.78 %
• DUK – 5.24%
• PGN – 5.27%
• HCN* – 5.58%
• VZ* – 5.23%
• T* – 5.50 %
• WIN – 7.42%
• CTL* -7.08%
• SNH* – 6.36%
• MRK -4.18
• LLY – 5.11%
• BCE* – 5.22%
• BMO* – 4.48%

More growth than dividend.

• CVX* – 3.03%
• MCD – 3.10%
• PG  - 3.22%
• CL – 2.73
• DD – 3.00%
• GIS – 2.90%

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Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves - The dollar is rising and Le Scandal should add some combustion to the rally. The MO is in neutral, so what usually is a decent (“merger”) Monday is looking bearish.

We’ve seen a roll over in most commodities (huge volume) , emerging markets, and some high beta names. Also, a corresponding move to defensive positions and cash. I don’t think this is Chicken Little, end of the world., but reason for caution.  When the MO  near gets below -60 there will be some kind of counter rally.

There’s a whole pot of Fed induced growing US dollars out there. There’s a whole pot of dollars coming out of commodities. – Where is that money going to go? Probably into stocks

The counter argument is the Fed stops it’s liquidity injections June 30th.  The counter counter argument is if things get bad enough the Fed will find some way to inject more $ into the market.

Bottom Line - We may see selling this week – However, Don’t fight the Fed has worked. The whole CME Group  raising margins to stop the silver rally may just be part of  the Fed’s managing/manipulations. The dollar going higher, ironically, gives the Fed more room to manage/manipulate.  All this has consequences in the long term, but its the Fed’s game and with the head of the IMF in deep do do the Fed becomes even stronger.

Check out the Quantitative Easing chart in the STRATEGY (click on word STRATEGY on top of blog or the link) Section of the blog. The stock market didn’t end between QE 1 & 2.

So Investors411 is going to stick with what works till its broken.  An MO approaching -60 is a signal to buy. Maybe later its red, but for now a yellow flag

Disclosure - I or my family have positions in REMX, NLY & GNC. I run a fund with a long term position in GLD

The Investors411 Portfolios – See POSITIONs Section of blog. – Click on word POSITIONS at top of page.

• REMX – Dipped below its 50 day moving average on Friday. Not good news.
• NLY and AGNC (two recommended high dividend stocks) Bought NLY at 17.14.
• YOUR Stock List stocks according to longer term market outlook CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH are  in a position to buy. Shorter term Investors411 feels a lower MO is a superior buying position. Also each stock individual performance obviously matters. See Paul’s remark’s on right side of blog.
• See last Monday and Wednesday’s Blog for more on Dividend Stocks.
• IMAX from YSL was up +5.34% Friday. Thor broke an IMAX record and There are some big summer block busters coming up in IMAX 3D. IMAX has been the most talked about stock in Investors411 since Avatar opened.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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Crunch Time/Elizabeth Warren

Perhaps the best result of the Financial Reform Legislation could be  a strong Consumer Protection Agency. Over the past few years Investors411 has beat the drums for the stand and policies of Elizabeth Warren. She would be an ideal choice for the agency, but has strong opposition from influential Senators like Democrat Chris Dodd (He approved the big financial bonuses for bailout TARP shadow banks) WaPo thinks there is good shot she will get the job.

Matt Taibbi

The Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi has an excellent editorial on “Wall Street’s Big Win.” The win, of course, is the new financial reform package that became law. Taibbi nails Republicans and Democrats (including Dodd) who gutted financial reform legislation.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Paul R in the comments section has found a great source describing the BB/HFT traders and consequences of what they do.

Individual companies may be doing well, but earnings season is basically over. The focus now turns to economic news and from China to the USA (talk of GDP growth being revised down in USA from 2.4 to 0.2 in 2nd quarter) the news has not made investors happy.  We’re not falling over the cliff, but even the BB/HFT traders need some series of economic fundamentals to hang their hats on.

Therefore, don’t see bulls getting out of the corral until the market becomes more oversold.

Same story of bigger volume on down days that has been the hallmark of US indexes for many moons.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD)  [Anything price move over +/- 0.50 is significant] The dollar rose 0.42% yesterday. This confirmed a massive +1.84% move the day before. Very bullish for the dollar but for stocks = Bearish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade/proxie for China & emerging markets] Rally +2.48% yesterday. Has broken up through 50 day moving average & upside momentum slowing. Overall trend  = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell to -38.98 Approaching oversold, but still = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The dollar is the key index to watch. The larger currency market is almost  dictating what happens to US stocks. You can follow (or invest) in it by watching the dollar bull ETF – ticker symbol UUP. If UUP goes up, stocks go down and visa versa.

The dollar closed at $82.64 and the first significant resistance level is the 50 day moving average at $84.06 ( 50 dma is falling each day). So there is a ways to go before we reach this point.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - NONE

From earlier this week - “The Bulls seem to be loosing control.” The MO has fallen to -39 & we are approaching the -60 oversold level.  The lower the MO goes the better the chances whatever long position you take has of making at least short term gains.

A number of you have asked or are investing in stocks with high dividends.  This gives you a second revenue stream – the dividend that is in some cases higher than what you can get in CD’s. The problem of course is will the stock go up or down. Here a list of top ten dividend stocks from an author in at Seeking Alpha.

FXI, EWZ, EEM, EWY, & EWS are the courty ETF’s recommened for consideration when conditions are appropriate. Also GLD on dips.

Also considered are ETF’s that mirror or do 2 or 3 times what major indexes do.

YOUR Stock List last generated on this date (scroll down) Have not gone over these recently.

More agressive traders could start to buy the dip. Longer term investors may want to wait for stocks to move lower.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!