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Toasting the S&P 500

For 7th Straight Year

Investors Dividend Portfolio toasted the S&P 500

Up 19% vs a -0.17% S&P 500 for 2011

See Friday’s blog post.

Here’s the results from our other portfolios.

More information on all portfolios can be found in the

Positions Section

Conservative Portfolio

ETF’s were chosen for 2011 because they have two streams of income

Ticker symbol, dividend, price change, total gain. Dividend gains were computed last January so they may be slightly off

• FLD +4.38, +10.29, = +14.67

• DTW +4.01, +8.22 = +12.23

• DVY +3.79, +7.54 = +11.33

Total +12.74 vs. -0.17% S&P 500.

While the conservative portfolio toasted the S&P 500, it did not do as well as the individual dividend stocks portfolio which was up @ +19%

Moderate Portfolio

These ETF’s were chosen to mirror the S&P 500, but give diversity

• QQQ +2.14
• SPY -0.17
• DIA +5.14
• IWM -6.36
• EEM -19.81
• DBC -0.74
• USO -0.03
• GLD +10.92

Total -1.19 vs. -0.17 for S&P 500

The moderate Portfolio mirrored the S&P, but was about 1% lower. This was because EEM (emerging markets) took a big hit. There was a warning about inflation attached to EEM.

Aggressive Portfolio

These were individual trades/investments made throughout the year and posted in the daily blog. I don’t have the time to go through approximately 225 posts to compile an accurate grand  total. But, I’m confident these choices overall beat the S&P 500. The vast majority of these trades had gains and losses of less than 10%

The most significant trades of the year was the GMCR Put/Call Hedge Trade that made almost +200 See LINK and previous blog posts.

Investors411 will keep a running total of special trades in the Aggressive Portfolio this year.

Your Stock List

Three Your Stock Lists were run in 2011.  Investors411 stopped running YSLs after 6/30 for several months. A wise move. This summer was when stocks took their big hit.

• YSL #4 +18.69 vs S&P +12.39
• YSL #5 +3.64 vs.  S&P +1.60
• YSL +6.50 vs. S&P +9.50

Total YSL +28.83 vs S&P +23,59

Stay tuned for the 2012 Forecasts and some major changes to Investors411 investment Portfolios

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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Dividend Stocks

The 10 year Treasury bond is now under 3%. There is some obvious risk in holding growth stocks though the summer (end of QE #2, Debt ceiling crisis, & emerging market inflation) So where does the money that’s out there in the system go? I believe dividend stocks, becuse of their stability, cash rich banace sheets, and second stream of income (the dividend) offer a reasonable choice.

If things become extremely bad these stocks will loose money. Check out Investors411 posts in May on dividend stocks.

Chuck Carnevale from Seeking Alpha believes holding dividend stocks is preferable to bonds right now. His editorial contains a list of 20 dividend stocks to consider. The link is to page 2 of his editorial.

Like some who write into the comment section, I have protected  these stocks with puts or calls on ETF’s that short market indexes.

I don’t plan on holding these stocks forever, If the money supply gets tightenes (something that will happen if the Tea Party ideology wins out) I’d sell. Below is a list, like Carnevale’s to consider if you want to buy and hold for longer periods of time.

Here’s a list of what I, my family, or the non profit I invest for  own

Personally, now, about 30 to 50% of my portfolios are dividend stocks and ETF’s

• NLY – higher dividend/higher risk
• AGNC – higher dividend/higher risk
• ANH – (small position) higher dividend/higher risk
• CTL (telecom)
• T (telecom)
• VZ (telecom)
• WIN (telecom)
• SNH senior housing
• KMP (limited partnership has tax implications)
• HTD ETF  (has tax advantages)
• CVX – Chevron
• DVY – ETF (Dow Dividends)
• SDY – ETF (S&P Dividends)

Amounts of money are diversified by asset class. Example – I own less of the 4 telecom stocks individually than other stocks because together they are so similar.

Will probably buy on dip the following to diversify.

• DUK - Almost there. (energy)
• D (energy)
• MO (tobacco)
• PM (tobacco)
• KMB (food)
• PG (consumer staples)

I don’t like the drug companies, because of the uncertainty. – If a major drug has side effects, that stock can tank quickly.

Caution – Most of these are too high right now. Buy the dip.

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Le Scandal

Dominique Strauss-Kahn sex scandal “is a seismic event for the IMF and a major development for French presidential politics. But the implications for the eurozone crisis are probably being overdone.”

Strauss-Kahn is the head of the IMF and the leading contedner for the French Presidency. He was caught by police in a NYC hotel sex scandal with a maid. As head of the IMF he is obviously a mega player in financial circles with plenty of  friends and enemies. This is coming at a time Europe is in the middle of some crucial debt negotiations with Greece and other member states. Imagine Ben Bernanke caught with his pants down.

Perhaps the only saving grace is he was expected to resign to run for the presidency of France

More

• NPR
• AJC – Atlanta (latest)

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a significant +0.71% Friday.  Dollar bulls are on a big run that started 7 trading days ago. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo fell to -14.56. Still in the middle of its range. Almost equal room to rally or fall = Neutral

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Dividend Stocks

Part 3

Europe’s in trouble, Japan’s in crisis, unemployment remains high in the USA so its natural for investors to turn toward more defensive stocks and cash. Investors when they are worried tend to favor more defensive stocks. Example – People are addicted to cigarettes, they won’t stop smoking when times get tough, and those stocks also have a second stream of income – So a dividend stock often outperforms.

Today, because of time limitations I’m just going to print a lists of dividend stocks I own or am considering.  Investors411 will go over each one individually in the coming weeks and probably a couple more.  Some of the stocks have more growth potential and lower dividends others have higher dividends and perhaps less growth potential.

Caution – Not all of these are in a position to BUY right now. The list is NOT in order of preference. * denotes my family owns this stock.

Higher dividends – Ticker symbol and last dividend paid listed below – All of the below have flat or growing dividends over 3 years, many longer. Highest dividend stocks were covered last week.

• MO – 5.64%
• PM  -  3.73%
• KMP* – 6.11%
• EPD – 5.78 %
• DUK – 5.24%
• PGN – 5.27%
• HCN* – 5.58%
• VZ* – 5.23%
• T* – 5.50 %
• WIN – 7.42%
• CTL* -7.08%
• SNH* – 6.36%
• MRK -4.18
• LLY – 5.11%
• BCE* – 5.22%
• BMO* – 4.48%

More growth than dividend.

• CVX* – 3.03%
• MCD – 3.10%
• PG  - 3.22%
• CL – 2.73
• DD – 3.00%
• GIS – 2.90%

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Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves - The dollar is rising and Le Scandal should add some combustion to the rally. The MO is in neutral, so what usually is a decent (“merger”) Monday is looking bearish.

We’ve seen a roll over in most commodities (huge volume) , emerging markets, and some high beta names. Also, a corresponding move to defensive positions and cash. I don’t think this is Chicken Little, end of the world., but reason for caution.  When the MO  near gets below -60 there will be some kind of counter rally.

There’s a whole pot of Fed induced growing US dollars out there. There’s a whole pot of dollars coming out of commodities. – Where is that money going to go? Probably into stocks

The counter argument is the Fed stops it’s liquidity injections June 30th.  The counter counter argument is if things get bad enough the Fed will find some way to inject more $ into the market.

Bottom Line - We may see selling this week – However, Don’t fight the Fed has worked. The whole CME Group  raising margins to stop the silver rally may just be part of  the Fed’s managing/manipulations. The dollar going higher, ironically, gives the Fed more room to manage/manipulate.  All this has consequences in the long term, but its the Fed’s game and with the head of the IMF in deep do do the Fed becomes even stronger.

Check out the Quantitative Easing chart in the STRATEGY (click on word STRATEGY on top of blog or the link) Section of the blog. The stock market didn’t end between QE 1 & 2.

So Investors411 is going to stick with what works till its broken.  An MO approaching -60 is a signal to buy. Maybe later its red, but for now a yellow flag

Disclosure - I or my family have positions in REMX, NLY & GNC. I run a fund with a long term position in GLD

The Investors411 Portfolios – See POSITIONs Section of blog. – Click on word POSITIONS at top of page.

• REMX – Dipped below its 50 day moving average on Friday. Not good news.
• NLY and AGNC (two recommended high dividend stocks) Bought NLY at 17.14.
• YOUR Stock List stocks according to longer term market outlook CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH are  in a position to buy. Shorter term Investors411 feels a lower MO is a superior buying position. Also each stock individual performance obviously matters. See Paul’s remark’s on right side of blog.
• See last Monday and Wednesday’s Blog for more on Dividend Stocks.
• IMAX from YSL was up +5.34% Friday. Thor broke an IMAX record and There are some big summer block busters coming up in IMAX 3D. IMAX has been the most talked about stock in Investors411 since Avatar opened.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

John Boehner

Take No Prisoners

Our political structure has devolved into a take no prisoners style of government.  Compromise has become a dirty word and threats of financial armageddon will soon becoming reality.

Ezra Klein (Bloomberg & Washington Post) has a comprehensive look at John Boehner’s (Republican House leader) demands over the debt ceiling.  This is obviously influenced by the Tea Party’s growing domination of the Republican Party. The Democrat’s too seem only be out to score political points.

Klein’s name is linked to the article and I stronly urge you look at it.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell again yesterday -0.17% The dollar has challenged its falling 50 day day moving average/strong resistance level and failed to overcome this barrier for the last three days.  A short term rebound earlier was bullish, but now the bears are regaining some momentum. Long term trend still bearish, but no clear direction exists until the 50 DMA or the old low is broken. (see link to chart) = Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo on   rose to +32.00. We are approaching oversold. Last two highs of between 50 and 45 gives us a day or two(depending on gains) left to the rally. = Neutral

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Dividends

Part 2

The following are the sexy, high octane , high risk dividend plays. The criteria for the selection of all dividend stocks was announced Monday.

Most of the group below are in some was involved in trading derivatives. They may use black box trading techniques and/or be high frequency traders.

Disclaimer - I own the two stocks mentioned below. You might want to own one of their competitors. Do your own research

NLY – Annaly Capital Management. Dividend 13.82% per year last quarter.

What they do – “We are primarily engaged in the business of investing, on a leveraged basis, in mortgage pass-through certificates, CMOs and other mortgage-backed securities representing interests in or obligations backed by pools of mortgage loans issued or guaranteed by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae.”

NLY, I believe, is the biggest firm of this group. Market cap = 14.4 billion. Others competitors and similar high yield dividend plays are smaller.  JS points out in the comments section that NLY is a favorite stock of Jim Cramer.  The dividend for the stock 0.60 per share 8 quarters ago and reached a high of .75 six quarters ago and  the latest quarter was .62.

AGNC – American Capital Agency. Dividend 18.78% per year last quarter

AGNY is a 3 year old company. Market cap $1.9 billion.  It rose to a hight of $1.50 dollar per share dividend  two years ago and has had what seems like a too good to be true steady 1.40 dollars per share dividend for the last 7 quarters.

Competition – You may find the following companies more desirable after you do the research.  HTS, MFA, IVR, CYS (the last has the highest dividend payout) There are others in this group.

Reasons for holding – The government has weak regulations on the derivative markets and it does not look like any changes are coming in the future.  These are risky plays and NLY is now trading at 18, but did reach a low of @ 11 in 2006 and 2009. (See link to chart) From late June of 2008 to late May of 2009 the dividend of NLY was a relative steady 0.50 to 0.55%. So NLY during the financial meltdown had a steady return.

More on dividend stocks ASAP – Next the anchors – or the dividend stocks you may hold through tick and thin.

Caution – all dividend stocks are vulnerable to run away inflation.

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Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves – MO has been an amazing accurate forecasting tool for the past year.  It saying we are getting near a technical top (See above)

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD. I also own NLY and AGNC mentioned above

• REMX is going to take a hit today. The #4 stock in its portfolio MCP had a bad earnings report and was down 12% in after hours trading. This will probably drag REMX down below its 50DMA. I will lighten my position here (at a loss) if there is no rebound by the end of the day.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Due to the overwhelming requests from YOUR emails and conversations Investors411 is going to be focusing more on LONG TERM INVESTMENTS. Investors will still cover trends, YSL’s, ETF’s etc., but for May one segment will focus on Long Term Investments – Dividend Producing Stocks. (see below)

Praising Bush

Investors411 has roasted and toasted Bush over the years. However, I do give former President Bush  credit in helping to catch bin Laden.

Two actions that former President Bush took helped in capturing bin Laden. No matter how you feel about the illegitimacy and uselessness of the Iraq war, these factors still count.

• Bush replaced Sec. of Defense Donald Rumsfeld with Bill Gates. Gates team was far superior to Rummy’s.  He was there in the situation room with Obama when the navy seals raided bin Laden’s hideout.
• Bush replaced incompetent generals with the far more able Petraeus. Petraeus realized it was important to win the hearts and minds of the people, an almost impossible tack when your an occupier of a foreign country. He didn’t win all the heart and minds, but he was better at it than his predecessors. His conduct lead to a better situation overall and therefore more actionable intelligence.

Yes, for frequent blogger, EW, Obama get’s the lion’s share of credit, but let’s not forget Bush.

Manipulated vs. Managed

For many moons, Investors411 has used the term “manipulated” when referring to Bernanke, the Fed, POMO, Quantitative Easing etc.  A perhaps better, and certainly softer term would be “managed.” Manipulated has a more negative connotation.

Only time will tell wether managed or manipulated is the more appropriate term.  So far “manage” works for no depression, a robust stock market, -700,00 to +250,000 employed. But many see dark clouds for the future. So lets call it – managed/manipulated

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• OIL (WTIC) traded all the way from @$102 to $95 and settled at $98 Down almost 13% for the week
• Silver stopped the bleeding and rallied over 2% Friday after a 25% to 30% fall for the week.
• Other commodities fell less severely and stocks were down
• The major question in investors minds is the indecision  between deflation (double dip recession) and inflation.
• This week - Europe Crisis, Commodity Rally/Rout, Economic Conditions
• Big rally at open fell apart because of rising dollar.
• Thursday’s weekly jobs number (horrible last week) is the big number for the week.
• NB – A lot of $$$ has come out of commodities and is looking for somewhere to park - so advantage bulls

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Second big move higher +0.97% on Friday. Sure looks like dollar bulls won the week long war (see Thursday’s Investors411) This move wiped out almost 11 days of the dollar falling. For stocks = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo on Friday  rose to -13.31 Below zero which is bullish, but not yet overbought = Neutral

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Dividends

Dividend producing stocks have two potential advantages.

• The potential for capital appreciation
• A second revenue stream from a dividend which is payed out to investors by the company

See chart above for long term results

Filters

In order to choose from the aprox. 1600 dividend producing stocks they had to be filtered for certain criteria. So that you may do this yourself the FREE sites I used were -

• Yahoo Finance – The preceding link is set to KMP,  a dividend producing for stock I own. Yahoo Finance simply organizes it all on one page. Charting to the right, daily activity including the dividend rate (6.10%) & up to the date news in the center, and all the fundamentals listed to the left
• Dividends.com – Again, the preceding link is set to KMP. In my Google Search I write the ticker symbol “KMP” then the word “dividend” and Dividends.com link is one of the top choices. Up comes a some very relevant information on KMP and its dividend that’s FREE. Great for an initial search. Dividends.com is mostly a PAY site that offers a two week FREE trial and uses some proprietary filters.
• Lists of Dividend Stocks – All you have to do to get many recommendations on top dividend stocks is, again, use Google – It FREE- WSJ, Seeking Alpha, CNBC, Motley Fools, Jim Jubak, and a host of others offer their top picks.  Hunt away.
• How Dividends Work – At Dividends.com , Wikipedia and Investopedia there’s more information.

What Filters were used to generate this list.

• The chosen stock should be a dividend raiser. A stock whose dividend is stabile (good) going up (better) over a sustained period is better than one going down.
• Capital appreciation – You want the price of the stock you choose to be going up.
• Performance in a meltdown –  The 2008.2009 meltdown was used as criteria. Those stocks whose went way down may have rebounded well but this list looked for those stocks that were less volatile.
• Tax considerations – Dividends in Limited Partnerships & REITS are often taxed less.

Later this week, probably Wednesday, Investors411 will start with the sexy, high octane , high risk dividend plays. Two that I own have 19% and 14% annual dividends and some capital appreciation to boot.  We’ll start with those two and their competitors.

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Positions

Tea Leaves – Bearish dollar, lots of free cash floating around from sellers of commodities(bullish) and a Neutral MO = No clear trend. Hard to call bought probably slight short term advantage to bulls.

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD.

• ZSL trade was officially closed Friday. If you followed silver and Investors411 you made +20% on SLV in April & +30% on ZSL in May
• Would consider ZSL(double short silver) again if SLV approached last weeks low. The major part of any fall usually happens early, but there may be more to the downside in commodities in the medium term. A rebound, at least in short term, should continue in commodities.
• No trending ETF’s currently under consideration

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Check out Paul R’s Comments on stocks and sectors daily and Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Iman Rauf of NYC Islamic Center

Confirmation of 5% Doctrine

Last Friday Investors411 led with Gail Collins’ 5% Doctrine. The Islamophobic fear mongering that was started over the NYC Islamic Culture Center has spread. The Florida minister’s didn’t burn the Koran, But  two other Ministers actually burned Korans on 911 ( includes video) By in large the American media has kept this quiet. Others are attempting to do so.

The Iman, who has said the doors of his Islamic Center will have rooms for other religions to pray and will honor the 60 Moslems & other Americans who died on 9/11, said canceling building plans will have the same kind of negative impact the Koran burning would have had by the Florida pastor throughout the world. General Petraeus is 100% right in his call to protect the troops and NOT to burn Korans.

Bottom Line –  from Steve Clemons – Do Muslim Lives Matter?

Elizabeth Warren for CFPB

Another  editorial by MIT prof Simon Johnson on why Elizabeth Warren would be  great for the position as first head of Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Every time the Dems call/email me asking to contribute money. I reply when Warren gets appointed then call me. See the debate on contributing $ for the November elections in comments section of blog.

Quote For the Week

“The Jews have lived an existence that is much harder than ours. Nothing compares to the Holocaust.” Fidel Castro in criticizing Iran’s so called President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Odds by Intrade of an overt US or Israeli air strike on Iran – Bid 24.0% Ask 24.4% by end of next year

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term of the Day – Double Dip Recession - From investopedia “When gross domestic product (GDP) growth slides back to negative after a quarter or two of positive growth. A double-dip recession refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession.” This is perhaps the major worry on Wall Street and Main Street.

Rally with pathetic volume on Friday. Low volume rallies have been the reality for major US indexes for many many moons. BB/HFT’s dominate and the # of retail investors are diminishing. As explained in past Investors411, this forces anyone who wants to invest to look at US stock markets differently than in the past.

Example – Low volume rallies would send technical analysts jumping for the sidelines or out of stocks.  Now, they are a wave to ride until we reach oversold positions (see MO below)

What’s up for this week – “A Dash of Insight” (a pun – but you have to know about the author) on the week ahead by Jeff Miller OK so most of you will skip reading this, but if you want to have an understanding of the different types and health of trees in the investment forrest its well worth the read

High Dividend stocks – Investors411 has recommended High dividend stocks as an outperformed in troubled times because they have two potential streams of income for long term investors – Appreciation in price and potential dividend. Here’s an editorial on 5 potential high dividend stocks

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, rose avery minor +0.01% higher Friday. Dollar in 4+ week long trading range. For stocks = Neutral
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose a very minor +0.23%yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. It also often makes long slow moves in one direction (see chart for patterns)  Right now chart pattern = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +43.43 yesterday. Clearly above zero and within 17 points of +60. So we are nearing overbought levels, but still= Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

We slowly moving toward oversold territory, while the dollar is moving sideways. The trend is bullish,but when we get to overbought (@+60 on the MO) this trend should change.

Right now good news gets a favorable reaction from stocks.  The more overbought we get the less that same kind of good news matters. For right now the Bulls rule.

NB – I’ve been too cautious for long term investors over the past few months when we reached key turning points (+/- 60 on the MO and not invested enough or sold enough. There are some key negative fundamental factors in the Europe & The USA to be concerned about balanced by the continued dynamic growth of emerging markets. (more later this week)

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

Short term traders - From Friday – “There’s some wiggle room before overbought levels are reached, but its mighty narrow.” Looks like potential rally today may run us out of wiggle room.

If stocks to rally today and we reach or come close to +60 on the MO. Any further rally would be time to sell some of your long term positions.

Paul R has an excellent strategy for this he has mentioned in comments section of blog. Especially good for any traders when conditions get oversold – “tighten your stops.”

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Was getting Saddam worth it?

Blood, Sand & Dollars

Obama last night gave a major address on Iraq as we have decreased the number of US troops (private mercenaries?) to 50,000 supposedly “non combat” troops. One can give Obama some point because he brought the troops out faster than McCain would have.  But lets look at the fractured mess of blood, sand & dollars left in Iraq and its impact on the US & the world.

• The fractured coalition of former US support and condemnation by UN for this war has seriously undermined our worldwide credibility
• How many lies, distortions and fabrications told by the US government to its citizens and the world?
• The strengthened positions of Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, & the Taliban as US occupation acted as a recruiting tool for every terrorist group in the world and kept troops tied to Iraq.
• 75,000 US troops killed or wounded in both combat & non combat rolls. Many more coming home with deep psychological problems.
• Costs on the ground will go over $1 trillion and according to nobel prize winner Joe Stiglets and additional $2 to $4 trillion caring for those returning etc.
• Up to 4 million displaced Iraqi’s. 1.7 million still living abroad. Who really knows over the  projected 100,000 dead Iraqi’s there really are?
• Stalemate in Iraq elections for over six months and majority of officials friendly to Syria or Iran.
• A country in shambles, corruption rampant, and police stations still getting blown up. (level of violence has decreased from two years ago, but still higher than when we first invaded.
• The damage to our constitutional laws and international laws were deeply wounded in this disaster.

The list could go on & on. Nailing a brutal dictator that was an insignificant threat (the Germans’, French, Russians, UN and others realized this) to us was simply not worth the cost.

Israel & Peace

It’s fashionable for some to lay the blame on Israel in the upcoming peace negotiations. They have made mistakes. But how do you make peace with Hamas when on the verge of peace talks they ambush 4 civilians (one pregnant women) and hold a 3000 person joyous rally in celebration of and taking credit for the “heroic “massacre of civilians?

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Sure was a whole lot of volume going on for a flat trading day. In Wall Street technical language they call this “Churning.” More often than not a big battle like yesterday between bulls & bears means a reversal in direction. In this case that would be a rally.

YOUR stock list is now contained in the POSITIONS section of the blog. It’s at the bottom.

Another strategy that some of YOU are using is more conservative and it involves buying stocks with high dividends. Here another list of the top 10 dividend stocks of the Dow. The obvious benefit of these stocks is the second revenue stream from dividends for long term investors. Example CVX offers 3.4% or VZ 6.3%.

The same, but longer term buy/ sell strategy can be used. But when conditions are oversold and the Dow is lower and at a certain date in the future sell when conditions are overbought. Use the MO as a guide.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose +0.03%. and closed just above its falling 50DMA. For Stocks = Neutral
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Again rose a marginal +o.04%. After a 5 week rally the BDI has flattened out. Now consolidating. = Neutral
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to -32.52.  We’re on the minus side of Zero, but not yet near -60. Therefore = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Sure looks like the calm before the storm – flat markets & neutral forecasting indexes. One anomaly was a massive -3.33% drop in the price of oil yesterday.

Overall think the BB/HFT’s are setting up for a rally. Flat dollar & MO on the negative side of zero. The “churning”  has also been a fairly reliable indicator.

Nation Building in Iran, Afghanistan etc. is a trend that’s is is doing serious economic harm to the UA.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - Small position in EWS (Singapore)

USO (commodity-Oil) hit the stop I had placed on it. This position is now closed with no gain or loss. Still plan to buy USO & UCO (ETF that is 2X USO) on dips lower.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!