Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
March 10, 2010

Corporate Communism

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Dylan Ratigan

No Brainer TAX

Senators Jim Webb (D) and Barbara Boxer (D) are offering a NO BRAINER tax that many other countries have already enacted.

If your company took over $5 billion of the TARP funds (our tax money) all bonuses over $400,000 would be subject to a 50% tax for the years you held our TARP money. The only reason these companies exist is because of  the TARP bailout, borrowing trillions at @ 0.00% from the FED (means future inflation for you) and have been allowed to drop transparent mark to market accounting.

You’d think a 50% tax on just the bonuses over $400,000 for the top executive would fly through congress like far more stringent taxes have in other countries like Britain. But YOU hear almost nothing about it because of the lobbyists and their tight control over the media. Dylan Ratigan on MSNBC (4:00PM EST) yesterday carried an interview with Senator Webb (D-VA) It seems in their first attempt they could not even get this on the floor of the Senate for a vote.

YOU get the bill and the wealthy that screwed you get the BonusOnly in America and third world dictatorships does this happen.

Health Care

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

  • The Good-The proposed Heath car plan under Obama will cover an additional 31 million Americans. Perhaps we will no longer be #1 on the list of “western” countries in which preventable deaths occur. One Republican’s  plan covers 3 million additional Americans. Its better than zero.
  • The Bad – At best long term, the Obama plan may very very slightly limits the 17+% and growing amount of GDP we spend on health care. Obama administration long ago sold out to the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have in the USA.
  • The Ugly -  Totally political congress that is only interested in getting elected instead of solutions  and lack of leadership from Obama have prevented real solutions that are working – a public option or universal health care that dozens of other countries have voted to keep for decades.

Yes, we have the best health care system in the world - If youyou’rer a Saudi Prince, uber wealthy foreigner, know someone, or are a wealthy American you actually get to use the best system in the world. Forget it if you’re an average Joe and Jane American.

Whipcongress.com has  kept the drive for a public option alive – 40 Senators have signed on – YOU can help.

Dylan Ratigan

Dylan, used to be the anchor and co creator of CNBC’s “Fast Money” and now has his own show on MSNBC.  He has both financial skills and is unafraid to nail any politician or industry unlike the corporate lapdogs of CNBC. As stated above his show is on at 4:00 PM EST.  One of his recent editorials on Corporate Communism in Heath Care and Banking. is a Must Read.

As Americans, I believe we reject communism because it historically has allowed a tiny group of people to consolidate complete control over national resources (including people), in the process stifling competition, freedom and choice. It leaves its citizens stagnating under the perpetual broken systems with no natural motivation to innovate, improve services or reduce costs.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.11% up
NASDQ +0.36% up
S&P 500 +0.17% up
Russell 2000 +0.38% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

A decent rally collapsed into yesterday’s close. We rallied a bit in the last 10 minutes to close in the green. Volume was up & above average. The benchmark S&P 500 came within @ 0.40% of reaching anew 18 month high. The NASDQ and Russell 2000 are already at new highs, but it has NOT been the typical big volume breakout that usually signifies the continuation of a major rally.

US markets need some fundamental push to breakout before the bullish momentum runs out of steam.

  • Perhaps good news from weekly jobless claims Thursday.
  • Perhaps the increased exports/imports just announced by China will lead markets higher, China is not nearly as close to or at  a new highs like US, Britain and some other countries. Worries over a developing housing/office space glut/bubble are holding back investors.
  • Perhaps it will be the financial sector (XLF the ETF) that almost broke out yesterday. – Attempts to regulate this sector are getting weaker.
  • Perhaps the Dollar will fall. This would mean the Euro would get stronger.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator dropped a bit to +6o.89 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
  • BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule Two days ago the BDI, like stocks, leveled off in front of a strong resistance level. Yesterday it fell.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Mantra – Since the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) is still over +60, or overbought -  Right now,  selling (taking profits) is more desirable than opening new positions because of the short term over bought conditions. Positions:

  • 6% EWZ (Brazil)
  • 5%MOO (agriculture ETF)
  • 5%FXI (China)
  • 3% IMAX – In a HUGE explosion higher right now

All three ETF positions are currently under performing US markets.  They are 5 to 10% from their old highs. Will sell more if NYMO gets above +80. Will nibble on THY & other positions if NYMO falls to @+20

Answer to Monitor’s comment - Congratulations on using  YOUR Stock Picks wisely and making a killing, I know others who have used the list and sent personal emails are also doing well.  See comments section on side of blog.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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February 25, 2010

Bloom Box

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

The Holy Grail of Fuel Cells?

The Terminator, WalMart’s CEO & Colin Powell

Add the CEO of Google and you have one of the most hyped and perhaps revolutionary product launches in history was launched yesterday – The Bloom fuel cell box – Low cost clean energy whose primary ingredient is sand in now being used by some major US companies. Hard to tell the hype from reality, but if you missed 60 minutes on the Bloom energy box the 3  links above will give you some more information.  Seems like a $3,000 clean energy box in your home will produce electricity at about 1/2 the rate currently charged.  For all its faults America still has the greatest innovators on the globe.

Shooting Shadow Banks

With a clenched jaw President Obama stated about the shadow financial institutions on January 21st – “If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have,” In front of the Business Round Table all that tough talk turned to jello.  Paul Volker & Elizabeth Warren seem to be left out on a limb that is being cut off. Enlightening editorial in New Republic by Peter Boone & Simon Johnson

Health Care Summit Today

Obama’s six hour health care summit is being held today. Dylan Ratigan (MSNBC Show) pointed out that insurance companies in 4 states plan to raise premiums over 20% this year.  For many the Democrats have sold out to the insurance industry and Republican’s simply want to do nothing to prevent Democrats from getting any credit.  Both parties are dominated by lobbyists. Ratigan also has a piece on the Bloom Box yesterday.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.89% down
NASDQ +1.01% down
S&P 500 +0.97% down
Russell 2000- +0.86% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

The Terminator, WalMart’s CEO & Colin Powell

Add the CEO of Google and you have one of the most hyped and perhaps revolutionary product launches in history was launched yesterday – The Bloom fuel cell box – Low cost clean energy whose primary ingredient is sand in now being used by some major US companies. Hard to tell the hype from reality, but if you missed 60 minutes on the Bloom energy box the 3  links above will give you some more information.  Seems like a $3,000 box in your home will produce electricity at about 1/2 the rate currently charged.  For all its faults America still has the greatest innovators on the globe.

Shooting Shadow Banks

With a clenched jaw President Obama stated about the shadow financial institutions on January 21st – “If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have,” In front of the Business Round Table all that tough talk turned to jello.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Markets rose and volume fell.  Up days on lighter volume has been the norm for months.  Roughly 80% of the rally days have seen a DECREASE in volume.  This is NOT good in the long term for stocks. About 80% of the previous days losses were made up.

The US shrugged off the bad consumer confidence news two days ago  and financials led stocks higher. (See above) Obama has flipped flopped on getting tougher regulations for shadow institutions so many times I’ve lost count. Bottom Line – nothing’s been done in since he took office. In fact dropping mark to market accounting has made major shadow banks less transparent. Short term this is a boon for stocks, but longer term it just means without transparency or any regulations other financial bubbles will inevitably form.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Index rose to +36.20. We are once again approaching oversold territory.  This looks like a second leg up into an oversold position – greater than +60

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) – These are positions I actually own

Will be lightening up when/if positions reach oversold.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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October 19, 2009

Market Update – Capitalism’s Most Ruthless Monster

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Capitalism’s Most Ruthless Monster

John D. Rockefeller who owned 90% of US  oil at the beginning of the last century many thought earned the title back then.  The NYT’s Frank Rich LINK , Salon’s Glenn Greenwald LINK and MSNBC’s Dillon RatiganLINK all seem to be nominating Goldman Sachs for this position.  Over the top analogy – yes. But it does have some basis in fact. Ratigan , a former analyst for two financial channels has the best explanation (video) .

Basically, GS  received $70 billion from the government & the Fed while the financial world almost collapsed.(see Ratigan video) GS took that $70 billion and bought everything financial for incredibly cheap prices in the collapse.  They bought stuff with our money that allowed them to keep from collapsing. They "didn’t pay a dime for this money." Basically "legalized theft."  As the authors point out former GS employees permeate both the Bush and Obama administration. How do we get rid of legalized theft?

  • Demand claw backs
  • Get rid of invisible exchanges
  • Stop placing GS executive and their protégée’s  in charge of our government
  • Limit (GS on track for $29 billion) bonuses to firms who got bailed out.

President Teddy Roosevelt broke up the big monopolies including Rockefeller/Standard Oil. Will any of this happen now? Not under the Obama administration or any Republican administration – Too many GS folks running government economic policy. Some bad PR perhaps, but like Rockefeller did, GS will throw shinny new nickels at the poor/us taxpayers – As taxpayers we got royally screwed.

Investing in GS and its main rival JPM (JP Morgan) may be similar to investing in a ruthless capitalist monster(s), but also an obvious financial winner(s) The competition was devastated, they have profits from our cash, the backing of our government, they’re smart and therefore, they rule. -Recommendation – Buy these stocks on dip s

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.67% up
NASDQ -0,76% up
S&P500 -0.81% down
Russell2000 -1.15%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

  • prices fell and the #1 confirmation factor, volume, was mixed = Prices falling always bearish, but volume inconclusive
  • Better than expected earnings for most companies yet markets fail to advance =  Short term bearish signal
  • Dollar rose Friday (see below) = obviously short term  bearish for stocks, But longer term pattern bullish
  • BDI (see below) forms higher high on its chart =bullish for worldwide recovery

FEARLESS FORECAST – Short term it looks like we are over bought and companies not moving higher on good earnings results. This is an indication of a short term correction. However The FED and the US government is not going to stop shoveling cash at the market as long as unemployment is so high. US companies are not hiring and will first hire abroad where labor is cheaper and growth faster.  So the cash shoveling will continue and Wall Street, once over bought situation is corrected, will continue to rise and the dollar fall.

Apple reports this evening

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 38% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose +40 points Friday and closed at 2728. This confirmed a higher high price on its chart pattern =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

——-

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose +0.15 % The dollar closed at $75.62. We have developed a suppor t now resistance (it’s called support on the way down and resistance on the way up) level just below $76 . The dollar closed below its support level. = Bullish for stocks

NB -

  • Earnings will probably trump the dollar as the #1 influencing factor for the nest two weeks. But the falling dollar is the main driver of stocks right now and we have a long way to go till we hit last year’s $71 low.
  • A slow decline in the dollar = good a rapid decline = bad .

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the major and very crucial support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Review of Positions (Part 1) All recommendations for longer term investors unless otherwise indicated.

GLD – ETF for gold – Technically broke out over major resistance level at @ 100+. This is mostly a play that the US and other debt ridden G 7 nations will keep throwing money at economic problems till unemployment situation reverses itself. The longer this takes the higher GLD will go.  Mid 2010 is best read of tea leaves on this, but the created jobs will be tied to government bailouts in the US and not US companies producing jobs. – Recommendation – Buy the dip

EWZ – ETF for Brazil – This country is going parabolic in price now (not volume).  Going way up too far too fast. Very rich in natural recourses and more progressive government has meant more money for middle and lower classes who juice the economy and spend the cash. Due for a moderate/significant correction. Recommendation If there is a big spike in volume take some profits.

FXI – ETF for China – China has gone up too far too fast this year and is now lagging or mirroring US equities. China’s growth and huge stimulus package (relative to GDP) has led a worldwide recovery.  Somebody coined the word Chimerica and its true. Both economics are bound together through globalism.  The US middle & lower classes are shrinking , but the Chinese middle class and lower class is growing. This is now a decade(s) old trend.  Recommendation buy China on dips

EWY – S. Korea (much smaller position ) Tied to Chimerica, but N. Korea is a problem. Traders may want to take profits on any rally. There seem to be better countries to invest in like energy rich Canada, Australia or any country that is not consumed by debt and wasting money fighting wars. – Recommendation Hold or take profits on any rally.

More tomorrow. Including individual stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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