“The Grand Slam

of Grand Slams”

Dustin Pedroia’s Grand Slam vs Yankees

No this is NOT about Baseball,

but about a financial expert/reporter/editor Dylan Ratigan who was last featured in this blog on September 28. His Rant is the

“Grand Slam of Grand Slams.”

Dylan Ratigan

Wendy Thompson Anderson brings up the August on Air Rant of Ratigan in Investors411 comments section.

Her link to the Ratigan’s Rant.

‘Tens of trillions of dollars are being extracted from our financial system…

Check out Ratigan’s award winning financial background.

If you want to take action you to help

• Join Get Money Out of Politics, I have joined along with 250,00o+ others
• Wendy and her OWS friends deserve consideration.
• You can pass on the Ratigan Rant to others.

Yankee Bob

Yankee Bob’s original editorial has been replaced with the following on Ratigan’s Rant.

Dylan Ratigan’s rant is a grand slam. It’s the Grand Slam of Grand Slams. It is inarguably right on target. Not only is it must see TV but it’s absolutely right on.

I have been saying for months that a 5th grader could solve our economic and social woes. I still believe it. So why is it so hard for our political class to do so? It’s the money!! IT’S  THE MONEY!!!

It’s the money that prevents our politicians from acting  on remedies and even when they do, it’s the money that defeats the initiatives and defeats the individuals pursuing them.

IT”S THE MONEY. Our politicians are bought and paid for. They MUST chase huge amounts of money simply to exist. The  media is literally bought and paid for and manipulates public perception of issues not, for the public good but,thru the narrow prism of corporate interests…

Continued in today’s comments section of blog.

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STOCKS

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The Fed To The Rescue

Last Wednesday the US Fed lead a group of Central Banks with promised funding for trouble Europe. WSJ Story on this. Even China’s Central Bank helped although it said it’s same day action was not coordinated with other Central Banks. They lie. The only noticeable absent institution was the German Central bank.

How the Fed tipped its hand Monday

• Investors411 last Monday brought to light the secret $1.2 trillion in loans to INTERNATIONAL banks over the 2008 meltdown. It’s only natural to infer that they would do the same for International or globalized banks in the EURO meltdown.

• Of course. the globalized banking system is further interconnected through financial WMD’s – Credit Default Swaps.

• Italy & Spain after reaching the 7% yield danger zone [where other European countries entered a “controlled defaults” on a hunk of their bond debt}  rallied on Monday for no apparent reason.

• The single largest entity on the planet able to take action is the Fed and it was rumored to be involved, since no other less powerful entity (Germans, IMF, ECB or bailout fund) had done anything but jaw bone

• The Fed’s role was becoming more apparent. It was only a matter of timing as to when they would PUBLICLY act.  If bond yields remain too high for too long in Italy and Spain their debt structure becomes unsustainable’

Therefore, we had reached critical mass (a meltdown was imminent as bonds crossed the 7% yield levels) It was now or never time for the Cavalry/The Fed.

Banks Get Bailed Out

People get Sold Out

The corrupt crony over leveraged phony capitalist system is getting bailed out again. The people of Europe who have an imposed recession (austerity measures) staring them in the face. Again the blackmail – If we don’t bail out the bondholders/shadow banks then the EURO will collapse and the resulting damage worse.

The threat of financial Armageddon has again forced bailouts. Behind all the bailouts is again the Puppet Master of a corrupt globalized banking system  - Ben Bernanke.

As Yogi Berra would say Déjà vu all Over Again.

Bottom Line Remains - 10s of trillions of dollars of wealth (See Ratigan Rant above) are being transfered under a phony, corrupt, over leveraged, privatize the gains and socialize the losses system. Banksters use catch phrases like “free markets” and capitalism” to hide the massive shift of money.

Get Money Out

Get the money out of politics. YOU can make a difference.

You can continue to be sheeple or perhaps take that first step

All you have to do is sign the petition then pass it on to your friends.

If you don’t fight for your democracy who will?

• Obama’s biggest contributor (bundled) was Goldman Sachs
• Romney’s biggest contributors are from Wall Street.
• Chairmanships of congressional comittees are now decided on who gets the most contibutions from the sector they govern. (Example Banking comittee – the poll who got the most $ from banksters gets to be chairman)

Want to know more LINK

Last Blog for Week

Back Monday

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Stocks

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

The below Chart is from ETF Digest’s David Fry. David shares the same cynical opinion that Investors411 has on High Frequency Trading (HTF’s) that dominate stock trading.

His Chart shows what happened to US equities (specifically the influence of HTF’s who are “in charge”)

• Long Term Stock Trend - The benchmark S&P 500 (see chart on right side of blog) has spent the entire months of August and September trading below the 50 & 200 day price moving average (red and blue lines on chart) – Any credible analyst will tell you that’s a bearish sign.

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

The McClellan Oscillator

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Short Term Outlook

days, week+

• Both Forecasting tools have shifted to Neutral.  But HFT dominated markets have built up some major momentum  - So chances are we’ll keep moving higher till overbought indicators start flashing a turn around.

• Financials (ETF = XLF) are the sector to watch. Long term their chart is bearish, like the S&P 500. Shorter term there is a series of lower highs and lows on the chart = bearish. No market rally can sustain itself without this group.

• Bottom Line for rest of week – Bulls still have the momentum, till the MO and PCR reach overbought levels.

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Demystifying and Discussing

Simple Option Strategies

by JS

PUTS

(Note:  I volunteered for this column when I saw no one else did, and I had years of experience using calls, especially for increasing income on stocks I own.  However I’ve limited experience in using puts, but I can see ways they are very useful.) [Mucho Thanks from all of us - editor]

Put options are a way to force someone (the person who sold you the put) to buy the stock at a fixed price, no matter how much lower the price of the stock currently is.

Note: you don’t actually sell it to someone personally; it’s like buying or selling stock. When you sell, someone invisible  (or an institution) is at the other side, buying it.

Using put options

Puts protect you from indecision and accidents.  Example: if you own CROX and want to protect profits, or you just bought it and want to limit your loss in this volatile market, this put can do it.

-CROX111022P27 (Oct 22, 2011, strike price of 27).   Friday CROX closed at $27.58.  If you paid $27.58 and you bought this put at the same time, this is how you stand:

• Sock price ………………..$27.58
• Put price …………………..$ 1.95
• Cost……………………… …$29.53

If CROX drops, your loss is limited to $29.53 -$27.00 (strike price of put) or $2.53, a little less than 10%.  But the beauty of this is that if it drops, you can still hold CROX till Oct 21 before you “put” it  at $27. It could go down to 20 in a bad day, but you can keep holding it in case it rebounds, and in this market, it very well can. If it goes up past $29.53, you are into profit. In this market, if CROX is a good pick, it could go much higher.

The negative: no profit till $29.53.  The positive: you limit your loss to 10%. If you bought CROX at a much lower price, you’ve also protected your profits.

Put option: negative: increases cost of stock. Positive: real protection till Oct 22. And you can hold stock in case it recovers quickly and reaches profit level.

Please note:  The title of this column is “Demystifying and DISCUSSING Simple Option Strategies”.  It is very helpful to readers of Investors411 if some of you who use options, post some comments.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

NLY - Will buy back into  this high dividend stock on Dip. The date you have to hold the stock comes up on Wednesday. Since the 1/4ly dividend is usually between 3 and 4% the stock often goes down close to that amount after this date. Everyone expects this so Put’s offer little protection for this incident.

GLD - From Two days ago – (Investors411 did not make this trade) Traders who can handle the risk – a third gap down at open and another  significant fall should bring us to longer term support levels. GLD is at very oversold levels. This risk on trade worked like a charm. Investors411 on trades takes 1/2 off the table after +5% and sets a stop loss at the price the stock/ETF (GLD)was bought for. Let the rest ride. Kudos for whose who made $$$

Traders - The risk on trade has worked and now watch for overbought signs (MO & PCR) as an exit and a reversal of the trend.

Investors - This is a crowded trade, but I think it’s a winner.  Short financials and long small caps or technology. There will be a slightly different price at the open.

• Short Financials – Investors411 will use ultra short SKF (closed at 78.91)
• Long technology - Investors411 will use ultra long QQQ (tech’s) QLD (closed at 81.13)
• It helps that the prices re almost equal.
• Of course, those who know how to use puts (on financials) and calls (on technology) – this is another way to go.

Exit strategy – I do hope to hold this into the end of the year, but will exit  if it looses over 7% and take some profits after +5%.

Disclaimer - I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

An Endorsement

“The stunning lack of accountability for the greed and misdeeds that brought America to its gravest financial crisis since the Great Depression.” – Frank Rich - New Yorker magazine - “Obama’s Original Sin”

The single most important and vocal person in the white house over the last three years who fought for this accountability is Elizabeth Warren. Phenomenal editorial Warren vs. The Banks

Warren is the ONLY candidate out there that this web site endorses for political office.

Another Hero

Dylan Ratigan

• 10 years financial reporter/editor Bloomberg LP
• 5 years with #1 financial network
• Creator and host of CNBC’s “Fast Money.”
• Co host “Closing Bell.”

He left that high paying job to fight for what he believes in – accountability. His new show is on MSNBC (4:00 to 5:00 EST)  Here’s a LINK to an August 9th on air Meltdown over the Meltdown.  The emotion is real, but its what he says that matters.

You have to love the title of his upcoming book – “Greedy Bastards.” Radio Free Dylan often carries some outstanding editorials like this one “Why No Handcuffs?” Some major points Dylan often hammer’s home and Investors411 shares.

• The $600 trillion swaps market is still an unregulated, hidden in shadows exchange. – It is the Credit Default Swaps that Warren Buffett termed financial WMD’s. The reason so many investment institutions were vulnerable/over leveraged in 2008

• How to you build a viable economic system when the backbone financial systems are hidden in the shadows and too big to fail?

• His four solutions to fixing the system LINK - Another LINK

[For Heroes Part 1 see November 10th Investors411]

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Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

• Investors411 uses the PCR to measure the path of least resistance for HFT dominated stock market. HFT’s love leverage and if there are more puts then calls, there is simply a supply glut on one side that forces a move to the other. See above.

The McClellan Oscillator

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Reading The Tea Leaves

HFT pushed stocks 140 points higher than they closed at. What happened? – The algorithms HFT’s use all clicked in and recognized a rapid overbought position. If we had ended the day 140 points higher our MO would have been near +50 (many other indexes that measure oversold/overbought would have shown the same) They pumped the market higher and then dumped into the close and took their nano second and multi second trade profits.

HFT’s are going to pull your chain on any event/rumor as long as they exist - Get used to it - HFT’s are here to stay.

Today, we have bullish/Neutral PCR, and an almost somewhat oversold MO = Neutral. So we’re NEUTRAL right now with just a touch of bullish mixed in.

Translation - US Stocks have no major bias higher or lower. Just a wee bit of the bull. This doesn’t mean HFT’s can not do a mega roller coaster on stocks, especially if there is meaningful fundamentals.

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Paul’s Corner

Fortes Fortuna Adjuvant - this can be translated as “fortune favors the strong.”

The title borrowed from Dave Steckler’s Blog last evening and we will look at the semis by using Relative Strength to determine the best semi.

Before we get into the semis here is a comment from Dave’s blog last evening which explained the jump in the market Wednesday:

The S&P 500 Index gained 1.35% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.60%.  The rally came on hopes for progress in resolving the Greek debt crisis.  Oil and precious metals prices fell and the U.S. dollar retreated from its recent gains. It’s always nice to see a 100+ point up day but keep in mind the Dow was up 280 points a half-hour before the close.

So while a few YSL 5 stocks had a great day, let’s not hold our breath too long hoping this is the start of the big long awaited rally.

Dave Stecklers Blog is always worth reading and his latest blog has  a great discussion on Relative Strength and how it’s used to research the market and in this issue he also looks at the semis.

Dave Stecklers Blog  LINK

As we found out several days ago, the semis are starting to draw attention. YSL 4 member SPRD appeared several times last week on the “Best of Woodard and Brown” screen on HGSI. The semi group index jumped to the top of the HGSI Industry Group sort on Monday Sept 12.

Industry Group Sort  LINK

There are 112 semis in the Semiconductor Industry Group which is too many to follow. I made up a user group of the top 10 stocks in the group,  the reason these were the first out of the “gate” so at the moment we can assume these are the stocks to follow.

AMD, ARMH, CAVM, LLTC, MXIM, MCHP, NVDA, SMTC, SPRD, TXN

To determine the strongest stocks within this group, we used the “Ian Slow” Relative Strength chart on HGSI. It measures the 6 month RS  with the most emphasis on the closet 3 months. Here is the RS chart of these 10 stocks based on the Wednesday close Sept 14.

Relative Strength Chart LINK

As you can see SPRD is top dog with ARMH and MXIM not far behind. Briefly looking at the charts, these three look ok. SPRD has had a nice run and will probably give us a few buy the dip opportunities.

Some of  you may be wondering why Dave and I are posting on Semis and Relative Strength at the same time. Do I read Dave’s blog for my ideas? No, but I will admit he has some brilliant discussion at times and worth ripping off. Dave and I both use HGSI for our research and of late HGSI has shown the semis are on the move. HGSI  has a valuable Relative Strength function that let’s you dig out what’s going on and we both see a change in the semis worth investigating.

But but but, Cramer just came out suggesting the semis, so why do “I” need HGSI? I just need to follow Cramer! Well that Mad Money man does have some interesting ideas and he surely follows the market and presents it in an interesting way. But do you have the time to sit down and watch each evening to catch the latest trend? Do you even get home at 6 PM in time to see each show?   Using HGSI each evening one can fully evaluate the market moves of the day, see what’s coming on or going away and come up with a list of stocks worth spending your kids inheritance on all in a matter of minutes. So with HGSI you get time management and great stock research.

If you didn’t see it here is a link to Cramer’s video on semis, it‘s quite good. See which semis he recommends.

Cramers semi video link: LINK

So do we jump into the semis?  Your guess is as good as mine, probably yes, but when considering the PIIGS problem across the pond?

The usual worthless disclaimer applies.  You buy any of these dogs and lose your house don’t whine to me, whine to Barr.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

Our forecasting tool are Neutral (see above) - You rather enter oversold markets and exit overbought markets.

Positions

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock –a @14% dividend

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Bought at 167.05 - Sold 1/2 for 180.4 Current price 177.21. Stop/sell order on GLD at 167.05. Now looking to buy small dip in price.

Disclaimer - I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Lori Wallach

Free Trade

Whenever you hear the sale picth its Free, warning bells should go off in your head. The same is true for branding concepts like “Free” Markets and “Free” Trade.

“Free Trade” is simply a branding concept used by major corporations and their politicians (From Obama to Bush)  Let’s use a few examples -

• NAFTA the supposed free trade agreement of the early 90′s between the USA – Mexico and Canada cost the USA 879,280 jobs between 1993 & 2002.

• Our supposed free trade deal with China – We tax Chinese goods at 2.5% and they tax our goods at 25%

• Now we have a supposed “free trade” deal with with 3 more countries.  Example Panama – A global tax haven and money laundering center for major corporations/banks

Here’s the LINK to a short video by Dylan Ratigan featuring former CEO of AT&T and Lori Wallach from Public Citizen Even when you factor in the lower prices of goods from abroad the average American looses” $7,000 a year” from the 11 “free trade” agreements.

Corporate America dumped more jobs during the 2008 meltdown than any other time in history. Wall Street is recovering nicely, but Main Street America still suffers. How can Americans fix any deficit without jobs?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+1.63%	Up
NASDQ	+2.22%	Up
S&P 500	+1.63%	Up
Russell 2000	+2.29%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• APPL hit yet another earnings run earnings report after the market closed and is was up over 6% in after hours trading = Bullish. For those of you who think Apple is mom, USA and apple pie. 62% of Apple’s earnings come from abroad.

• Today is the confirmation day of yesterday’s rally. Holding onto the rally or making further gains is bullish. Tech giants GOOG, AAPL, IBM and others are getting showered with profits . All are adding job after job abroad

• Wall Street was sending a message to politicians over the debt crisis yesterday. Any hope of a bipartisan resolution is going to send stocks higher and a breakdown is going to send stocks lower. As mentioned two weeks ago – “If the US debt default starts to hurt stocks, politicians will fix the problem rapidly because their campaigns are all funded by an elite oligarchy of insiders.”

• Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically to -13.73 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold. The more oversold we get the better the chance for an oversold rally) Lots of room for MO to move higher or lower = Neutral

• $USD The Dollar fell -0.35% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Price chart shows we are in a month+ long trading range.  For stocks= Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves – From yesterday “-48 on the MO, is usually a figure that oversold stocks bounce higher from. But how high and far is up to the the fundamentals of Europe and US debt.”  -14 on the MO means there is a lot of room for stocks to roam. Solid earnings in techs are bullish, but all eyes still on US congress.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• May 20th forecast still in effect.

• Repeat – It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki dance over the debt will end. Therefore, hanging in their with a NEUTRAL Long Term Forecast. However, perception slightly favors bulls.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

GLD & SLV – Still waiting to buy. Will announce when in comments section of blog. Their price is linked most notably to US debt kabuki dance in congress. If we achieve a rational compromise, then gold will come down to a safer level to buy.

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks (also a couple other long term investments) including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and ETF’s. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

I firmly believe you can make money with BOTH long term investments and short term trades. See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

Don’t forget to send in your stock choices fro our new Stock List #5

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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Turning on the Light

So many spend so much time analyzing darkness instead of just turning on the light

One such organization that turns on lights for Cancer patients is

First Descents

“Cancer taught me about death and First Desccnts taught me how to live.”

From personal experience (a daughter who is a cancer survivor & she took me to one of their camps) I can’t begin to tell you in words the impact this organization has on the lives of everyone involved.

Yea I hope you explore their site and get involved. But even more I hope that YOU have the courage to make your first descent into any new life enhancing challenge. Turn on a light.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.76%	Down
NASDQ	-0.89%	Down
S&P 500	-0.81%	Down
Russell 2000	-1.55%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• Debt crisis in Europe is expanding. Interest rate on Greek 2 year bond rocketed to high of 35.19% yesterday. How is Greece ever going to be able to pay this back?  Most talking about major problems in Italy whose banks and bonds got toasted yesterday. Real problem –   European banks still make bets on bundles of securities (credit default swaps) You tend to cringe each AM as the rates for these CDS’s move higher.

• The odds of the British PM staying in office over the Rupert Murdoch scandal went from 100 to 1 to 8 to 1 overnight.

• An editorial that turns on some lights from Dylan Ratigan – The Real Debt Deal

• Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically to -47.70 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold. The more oversold we get the better the chance for an oversold rally) We’re  somewhat oversold now, but momentum shows there’s probably more to come.= Neutral/Bullish

• $USD The Dollar rose +0.48% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Price chart shows we are in a month+ long trading range with slight, but erratic momentum for dollar bulls, For stocks= Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves – -48 on the MO, is usually a figure that oversold stocks bounce higher from. But how high and far is up to the the fundamentals of Europe and US debt.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• May 20th forecast still in effect.

• It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki dance over the debt will end. Yesterday’s blog (click on date in calender at top right of blog) contained a tea leaves reading of what and why.

• No asset class, with the possible exception of gold or shorting equities, could come out of this unscathed. Example – Cash – worse case senerio - US defaults – Dollar implodes your US greenbacks become toilet paper. Inflation soars and your cash becomes burnt toilet paper. Of course, other asset classes will probably do worse.

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Paul’s Corner

Hello world, it’s July 19 and pre market futures are up, let’s RUMBLE!

Eh excuse me! After a rotten day yesterday you actually expect us to believe it’s going to be a good day in the market you say?

Well that’s just it, at the moment this is a news driven market and it’s dangerous to play in the market with your grand children’s inheritance. A stock or two at the moment Ok, but please don’t sink your cash hoard into the market quite yet. Ian Woodward has just posted another gem of a blog and it’s worth the read. It’s title “Stock Market Spooked: Send In The Clowns” sums it up nicely!

LINK

My favorite HGSI “High Demand Search” for July 18 shows the following top three groups had the action yesterday:

Gold (18.00%, 18 securities)

• Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)
• Allied Nevada Gold Corp (ANV)
• AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)
• Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
• Buenaventura Mining Company (BVN)
• Coeur D’Alene Mines Corporat (CDE)
• Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)
• Goldcorp  Inc. (GG)
• IAMGold Corporation (IAG)
• Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)
• Minefinders  Ltd. (MFN)
• New Gold  Inc. (NGD)
• Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM)
• Novagold Resources  Inc. (NG)
• Randgold Resources  Ltd. (GOLD)
• Richmont Mines  Inc. (RIC)
• Royal Gold  Inc. (RGLD)
• Yamana Gold  Inc. (AUY)

Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods (9.00%, 9 securities)

• Carter’s  Inc. (CRI)
• Coach  Inc. (COH)
• Fossil  Inc. (FOSL)
• Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)
• Lululemon Athletica  Inc. (LULU)
• PVH Corp (PVH)
• Under Armour  Inc. (UA)
• VF Corporation (VFC)
• Warnaco Group  Inc. (WRC)

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (9.00%, 9 securities)

• Brigham Exploration Company (BEXP)
• Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd. (EXXI)
• EQT Corp. (EQT)
• EV Energy Partner LP (EVEP)
• Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR)
• Northern Oil & Gas  Inc. (NOG)
• Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
• W&T Offshore  Inc. (WTI)
• Whiting Petroleum Corporatio (WLL)

It’s interesting we have these groups as the top three groups once again, Gold, High End Retailers and O&G Exploration. It’s almost like a broken record. These groups keep coming to the top of the list. Perhaps the market is trying to tell us where to place your bet!

So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up this morning, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

GLD & SLV – Shouda, Woulda, Coulda – I did not buy into any of the gold or silver ETF’s yesterday. Waiting for a dip is like waiting for Godot. Will try again today.

Disclaimer - Personally I own a group of dividend stocks including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and some general ETF’s that track market indexes. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Now, because of the Supreme Court we have unlimited corporate spending This vastly increases the power of the wealthy, big corporations and Wahington lobbyists

If you think this has no impact on YOU.

• Look at what the lobbyists did to deregulate the financial industry. The result was the 2008 financial meltdown – Even with Bernanke, Bush & Obama massive influx of YOUR tax dollars and printed money keeping us from a total worldwide economic collapse – Look what happened to employment, your houses value and your stock portfolio. You pay and pay and pay. Like you are saying in the comments section of the blog – Wake Up and Smell the Coffee.
• The Big Financial Services bill to regulate the shadow banks - 40% more money went to those who opposed Wall Street reform. Even those who voted against it received mountains of cash.

You’re simply the sheep being led to the slaughter in what you think is a transparent democracy. There is an growing oligarch that owns/buys more of your democracy each day.

Sources -

• Dylan Ratigan Show especially this clip which is far more powerful than the above editorial.
• MapLight.org gives you legislators, their donors and ties it to specific bills. You can see how much an industry and/or individuals paid to get a specific bill passed.

More on elections tomorrow – facts and solutions.

Again from previous days – “Not making any specific move until dollar breaks out of its range. I would look at a breakout higher for the dollar, and a corresponding fall in stocks and the MO to oversold as a buying opportunity for long term investors.”

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Dylan Ratigan

No Brainer TAX

Senators Jim Webb (D) and Barbara Boxer (D) are offering a NO BRAINER tax that many other countries have already enacted.

If your company took over $5 billion of the TARP funds (our tax money) all bonuses over $400,000 would be subject to a 50% tax for the years you held our TARP money. The only reason these companies exist is because of  the TARP bailout, borrowing trillions at @ 0.00% from the FED (means future inflation for you) and have been allowed to drop transparent mark to market accounting.

You’d think a 50% tax on just the bonuses over $400,000 for the top executive would fly through congress like far more stringent taxes have in other countries like Britain. But YOU hear almost nothing about it because of the lobbyists and their tight control over the media. Dylan Ratigan on MSNBC (4:00PM EST) yesterday carried an interview with Senator Webb (D-VA) It seems in their first attempt they could not even get this on the floor of the Senate for a vote.

YOU get the bill and the wealthy that screwed you get the Bonus – Only in America and third world dictatorships does this happen.

Health Care

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

• The Good-The proposed Heath car plan under Obama will cover an additional 31 million Americans. Perhaps we will no longer be #1 on the list of “western” countries in which preventable deaths occur. One Republican’s  plan covers 3 million additional Americans. Its better than zero.
• The Bad – At best long term, the Obama plan may very very slightly limits the 17+% and growing amount of GDP we spend on health care. Obama administration long ago sold out to the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have in the USA.
• The Ugly -  Totally political congress that is only interested in getting elected instead of solutions  and lack of leadership from Obama have prevented real solutions that are working – a public option or universal health care that dozens of other countries have voted to keep for decades.

Yes, we have the best health care system in the world - If youyou’rer a Saudi Prince, uber wealthy foreigner, know someone, or are a wealthy American you actually get to use the best system in the world. Forget it if you’re an average Joe and Jane American.

Whipcongress.com has  kept the drive for a public option alive – 40 Senators have signed on – YOU can help.

Dylan Ratigan

Dylan, used to be the anchor and co creator of CNBC’s “Fast Money” and now has his own show on MSNBC.  He has both financial skills and is unafraid to nail any politician or industry unlike the corporate lapdogs of CNBC. As stated above his show is on at 4:00 PM EST.  One of his recent editorials on Corporate Communism in Heath Care and Banking. is a Must Read.

As Americans, I believe we reject communism because it historically has allowed a tiny group of people to consolidate complete control over national resources (including people), in the process stifling competition, freedom and choice. It leaves its citizens stagnating under the perpetual broken systems with no natural motivation to innovate, improve services or reduce costs.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.11%	up
NASDQ	+0.36%	up
S&P 500	+0.17%	up
Russell 2000	+0.38%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

A decent rally collapsed into yesterday’s close. We rallied a bit in the last 10 minutes to close in the green. Volume was up & above average. The benchmark S&P 500 came within @ 0.40% of reaching anew 18 month high. The NASDQ and Russell 2000 are already at new highs, but it has NOT been the typical big volume breakout that usually signifies the continuation of a major rally.

US markets need some fundamental push to breakout before the bullish momentum runs out of steam.

• Perhaps good news from weekly jobless claims Thursday.
• Perhaps the increased exports/imports just announced by China will lead markets higher, China is not nearly as close to or at  a new highs like US, Britain and some other countries. Worries over a developing housing/office space glut/bubble are holding back investors.
• Perhaps it will be the financial sector (XLF the ETF) that almost broke out yesterday. – Attempts to regulate this sector are getting weaker.
• Perhaps the Dollar will fall. This would mean the Euro would get stronger.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator dropped a bit to +6o.89 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
• BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule Two days ago the BDI, like stocks, leveled off in front of a strong resistance level. Yesterday it fell.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Mantra – Since the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) is still over +60, or overbought -  Right now,  selling (taking profits) is more desirable than opening new positions because of the short term over bought conditions. Positions:

• 6% EWZ (Brazil)
  
• 5%MOO (agriculture ETF)
• 5%FXI (China)
  
• 3% IMAX – In a HUGE explosion higher right now

All three ETF positions are currently under performing US markets.  They are 5 to 10% from their old highs. Will sell more if NYMO gets above +80. Will nibble on THY & other positions if NYMO falls to @+20

Answer to Monitor’s comment - Congratulations on using  YOUR Stock Picks wisely and making a killing, I know others who have used the list and sent personal emails are also doing well.  See comments section on side of blog.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

The Holy Grail of Fuel Cells?

The Terminator, WalMart’s CEO & Colin Powell

Add the CEO of Google and you have one of the most hyped and perhaps revolutionary product launches in history was launched yesterday – The Bloom fuel cell box – Low cost clean energy whose primary ingredient is sand in now being used by some major US companies. Hard to tell the hype from reality, but if you missed 60 minutes on the Bloom energy box the 3  links above will give you some more information.  Seems like a $3,000 clean energy box in your home will produce electricity at about 1/2 the rate currently charged.  For all its faults America still has the greatest innovators on the globe.

Shooting Shadow Banks

With a clenched jaw President Obama stated about the shadow financial institutions on January 21st – “If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have,” In front of the Business Round Table all that tough talk turned to jello.  Paul Volker & Elizabeth Warren seem to be left out on a limb that is being cut off. Enlightening editorial in New Republic by Peter Boone & Simon Johnson

Health Care Summit Today

Obama’s six hour health care summit is being held today. Dylan Ratigan (MSNBC Show) pointed out that insurance companies in 4 states plan to raise premiums over 20% this year.  For many the Democrats have sold out to the insurance industry and Republican’s simply want to do nothing to prevent Democrats from getting any credit.  Both parties are dominated by lobbyists. Ratigan also has a piece on the Bloom Box yesterday.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.89%	down
NASDQ	+1.01%	down
S&P 500	+0.97%	down
Russell 2000-	+0.86%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

The Terminator, WalMart’s CEO & Colin Powell

Add the CEO of Google and you have one of the most hyped and perhaps revolutionary product launches in history was launched yesterday – The Bloom fuel cell box – Low cost clean energy whose primary ingredient is sand in now being used by some major US companies. Hard to tell the hype from reality, but if you missed 60 minutes on the Bloom energy box the 3  links above will give you some more information.  Seems like a $3,000 box in your home will produce electricity at about 1/2 the rate currently charged.  For all its faults America still has the greatest innovators on the globe.

Shooting Shadow Banks

With a clenched jaw President Obama stated about the shadow financial institutions on January 21st – “If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have,” In front of the Business Round Table all that tough talk turned to jello.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Markets rose and volume fell.  Up days on lighter volume has been the norm for months.  Roughly 80% of the rally days have seen a DECREASE in volume.  This is NOT good in the long term for stocks. About 80% of the previous days losses were made up.

The US shrugged off the bad consumer confidence news two days ago  and financials led stocks higher. (See above) Obama has flipped flopped on getting tougher regulations for shadow institutions so many times I’ve lost count. Bottom Line – nothing’s been done in since he took office. In fact dropping mark to market accounting has made major shadow banks less transparent. Short term this is a boon for stocks, but longer term it just means without transparency or any regulations other financial bubbles will inevitably form.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Index rose to +36.20. We are once again approaching oversold territory.  This looks like a second leg up into an oversold position – greater than +60

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) – These are positions I actually own

Will be lightening up when/if positions reach oversold.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Capitalism’s Most Ruthless Monster

John D. Rockefeller who owned 90% of US  oil at the beginning of the last century many thought earned the title back then.  The NYT’s Frank Rich LINK , Salon’s Glenn Greenwald LINK and MSNBC’s Dillon Ratigan – LINK all seem to be nominating Goldman Sachs for this position.  Over the top analogy – yes. But it does have some basis in fact. Ratigan , a former analyst for two financial channels has the best explanation (video) .

Basically, GS  received $70 billion from the government & the Fed while the financial world almost collapsed.(see Ratigan video) GS took that $70 billion and bought everything financial for incredibly cheap prices in the collapse.  They bought stuff with our money that allowed them to keep from collapsing. They "didn’t pay a dime for this money." Basically "legalized theft."  As the authors point out former GS employees permeate both the Bush and Obama administration. How do we get rid of legalized theft?

• Demand claw backs
• Get rid of invisible exchanges
• Stop placing GS executive and their protégée’s  in charge of our government
• Limit (GS on track for $29 billion) bonuses to firms who got bailed out.

President Teddy Roosevelt broke up the big monopolies including Rockefeller/Standard Oil. Will any of this happen now? Not under the Obama administration or any Republican administration – Too many GS folks running government economic policy. Some bad PR perhaps, but like Rockefeller did, GS will throw shinny new nickels at the poor/us taxpayers – As taxpayers we got royally screwed.

Investing in GS and its main rival JPM (JP Morgan) may be similar to investing in a ruthless capitalist monster(s), but also an obvious financial winner(s) The competition was devastated, they have profits from our cash, the backing of our government, they’re smart and therefore, they rule. -Recommendation – Buy these stocks on dip s

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	-0.67%	up
NASDQ	-0,76%	up
S&P500	-0.81%	down
Russell2000	-1.15%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

• prices fell and the #1 confirmation factor, volume, was mixed = Prices falling always bearish, but volume inconclusive
  
• Better than expected earnings for most companies yet markets fail to advance =  Short term bearish signal
• Dollar rose Friday (see below) = obviously short term  bearish for stocks, But longer term pattern bullish
• BDI (see below) forms higher high on its chart =bullish for worldwide recovery

FEARLESS FORECAST – Short term it looks like we are over bought and companies not moving higher on good earnings results. This is an indication of a short term correction. However The FED and the US government is not going to stop shoveling cash at the market as long as unemployment is so high. US companies are not hiring and will first hire abroad where labor is cheaper and growth faster.  So the cash shoveling will continue and Wall Street, once over bought situation is corrected, will continue to rise and the dollar fall.

Apple reports this evening

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 38% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose +40 points Friday and closed at 2728. This confirmed a higher high price on its chart pattern =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

——-

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose +0.15 % The dollar closed at $75.62. We have developed a suppor t now resistance (it’s called support on the way down and resistance on the way up) level just below $76 . The dollar closed below its support level. = Bullish for stocks

NB -

• Earnings will probably trump the dollar as the #1 influencing factor for the nest two weeks. But the falling dollar is the main driver of stocks right now and we have a long way to go till we hit last year’s $71 low.
• A slow decline in the dollar = good a rapid decline = bad .
  

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the major and very crucial support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Review of Positions (Part 1) All recommendations for longer term investors unless otherwise indicated.

GLD – ETF for gold – Technically broke out over major resistance level at @ 100+. This is mostly a play that the US and other debt ridden G 7 nations will keep throwing money at economic problems till unemployment situation reverses itself. The longer this takes the higher GLD will go.  Mid 2010 is best read of tea leaves on this, but the created jobs will be tied to government bailouts in the US and not US companies producing jobs. – Recommendation – Buy the dip

EWZ – ETF for Brazil – This country is going parabolic in price now (not volume).  Going way up too far too fast. Very rich in natural recourses and more progressive government has meant more money for middle and lower classes who juice the economy and spend the cash. Due for a moderate/significant correction. Recommendation If there is a big spike in volume take some profits.

FXI – ETF for China – China has gone up too far too fast this year and is now lagging or mirroring US equities. China’s growth and huge stimulus package (relative to GDP) has led a worldwide recovery.  Somebody coined the word Chimerica and its true. Both economics are bound together through globalism.  The US middle & lower classes are shrinking , but the Chinese middle class and lower class is growing. This is now a decade(s) old trend.  Recommendation buy China on dips

EWY – S. Korea (much smaller position ) Tied to Chimerica, but N. Korea is a problem. Traders may want to take profits on any rally. There seem to be better countries to invest in like energy rich Canada, Australia or any country that is not consumed by debt and wasting money fighting wars. – Recommendation Hold or take profits on any rally.

More tomorrow. Including individual stocks.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!