Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
February 29, 2012

Stopping The Vampire Squid

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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The Vampire Squid

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Globalized Finances

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The biggest loss in our vampire “extraction” financial system is not the trillions in wealth lost or the trillions printed by Central banks.

It is the fact that we are no longer running a capitalist financial system.

We are running a system based on unregulated gambling or placing bets on the credit worthiness of  YOUR money. Gone is most of incentive for competition to find worthy clients to loan money to.

Instead banks profit now by bundle loans and sell them to investment banks. Then they are placed on an unregulated $600 trillion dollar casino (Credit Default Swaps/derivatives market) to be bet on.

From Financial Analyst

Dylan Ratigan

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Solutions

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From the Great Depression we put rules in place on our financial structure that prevented systemic risk. Those were weakened and finally collapsed near the turn of the century.

The easy answer is to put those rules back in place.

How?


The Volker Rule

The NYT

editorial yesterday


Some Specific Changes from Dylan Ratigan’s Chart which has been featured through out this series.

The advantages of this solution is regulations worked for  over 6 decades and its far less chaotic than the Libertarian solution presented yesterday.

The vast majority of the American public don’t even know a huge over leveraged, unregulated casino of derivatives or credit default swaps betting even exists. At some point in time a credit imbalance is going to be too big for the already up to their neck in freshly printed money for the Central banks to handle.

You know what happens next.


End of series


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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

  • Employment numbers for February, usually come out on first Friday and this could be a short term market moving number.
  • Dow moved over 13,000 milestone and gobs of Technical analys all reconize that stocks are overbought.
  • However the mantra is again - Stocks/Bonds/Currencies are being manipulated by central banks.  This week Investors showed $6.5 trillion is now the balance sheet of the Fed and ECB.
  • Low volume rallies are here to stay until this system cracks.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -14.47. 50 Day Moving Average at +21.46 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Lots of wiggle room for bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

  • The Manipulation – The European Central Bank – loans money to troubled Spanish and Italian banks for a nominal rate and they go out and buy troubled Spanish and Italian bonds. Spain and Italy are many times larger than other troubled European countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal and therefore far more important.
  • Like the USA after the Lehman collapse, Central bank money printing , now up to $6.5 trillion, is keeping both Europe and the USA economically solvent. Our 10 year Treasury bills are near 2%
  • Italian 10 year bond yield fell again to 5.27% (6:30 AM EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.

  • If the bubble does pop Italian bond yields will explode higher. – But So far…

NO SIGN OF THIS (yet).

NB – The “yet” at the end. It may be a week, a year, or even longer, but the bubble is building and you know what expanding bubbles do.


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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 28, 2012

Solutions

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Banksta’s At Play

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Blackmail


We have an American dominated unregulated worldwide banking system that

“takes money from others without creating anything of value, anything that produces economic growth or anything that improves our lives.”

The too big to fail bankstas own both parties in the USA through their lobbyist and campaign contributions. Through Central bank money printing they are even bigger now than they were before the 2008 meltdown.

No politician in the USA who dares stand up to the bankstas and their unregulated opaque casino will ever get elected if they defy the bankstas. Banksta’s own most of the media, their allies make multi million dollar contributions and a narrow majority on the Supreme court has made all this legal.

Besides they are too big to fail. So if they go down so does the system.

Two very opposite groups

are fighting the Bankstas

First

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The Libertarians

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Libertarians are truly compassionate real conservatives who 100% believe in free markets and limited government.

Most libertarians understand how bankstas have decimated everyone from the American middle class to Greek citizens.

Their solution is to eliminate almost all checks, balances, regulators, regulations including Central Banks and return to the gold standard.

A gold standard would put an immediate halt to money printing and so would eliminating the FED. The casino banksters without the protection of money printing Central Banks would explode.

This solution works,

but the result is uncharted chaos

Tomorrow – More Solutions and perhaps Libertarian Ron Paul isn’t America’s last hope.

NB – One very interesting Libertarian financial blog is Zero Hedge.

Dylan Ratigan quote above in red.


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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

  • The major change is overbought oil prices fell (USO) 1.98%. Like with Apple agin this analysts Tom DeMark 13 day indicator was the exact point  for the reversal.
  • Like AAPL if you’re a short term trader you cashed in (USO & UCO), but if you’re a longer term investor, the major fundamental behind the price rise discussed yesterday has NOT changed.  Furthermore, if we see more short covering today in oil, a buy the dip opportunity arrises.
  • This Just in at 8:30AM EST - Durable goods numbers missed big time in January and could hurt stocks today. But January is a relatively bad month after the holiday season.  If more bad data points come in then you could see a problem. – A problem that would be answered with more money printing. (QE3)

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -11.47. 50 Day Moving Average at +20.68 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Lots of wiggle room for bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

  • From Yesterday – The European canary in a coal mine is chirping. But focus is going to be drawn more on Israel/Iran because of the Israel PM visit and politics.
  • Italian 10 year bond yield fell to 5.35% (8:30 EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.
  • If the Italian bond drops any lower the canary is going to start singing “Ode to Joy.”


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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 27, 2012

Greed

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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GREED

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The Vampire Bankstas

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In Vegas you need to have actual money to gamble – your own money – You win lose or draw.

What Banksta greed has done since  deregulation  was…

  • take YOUR money, and gamble with it
  • with NO requirement or significant risk to their money
  • and over leverage themselves on opaque derivative/credit default swaps markets

You’ve seen the consequences and now its time for…


The Bankstas Cover Up

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Back before banks were deregulated, a special group of banks that met our Central Bank’s requirements were given special legal privileges and access to taxpayer money.

They could borrow money from the Fed for almost nothing and then lend it right back to the Fed at a higher interest rate – say 3%.

This actually helped money flow through the system.

But after the 2008 meltdown and the banks got soooooooo over leveraged they needed truck loads of money to cover old losses and new (think European debt) So Central banks printed and printed and printed money and loaned it out to their member banks.

How much money was printed for Bankstas?

The Fed (our central bank) balance sheet on 2/22 stood at $2,917,435,000,000 &

the ECB (Europes Central Bank) balance sheet stood at $3,550,000,000,000 on 1/1/12

$6,500,000,000,000

to keep their too big to fail

unregulated Casino open

Tomorrow – Solutions.

Much of this 6 part series was inspired by Dylan Ratigan’s book Greedy Bastards.

Link to Chart/Timeline of Banksta Takeover

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

We’re still in the CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH sweet spot, but there are dark clouds on the horizon.


  • Sweet Spot Mantra - “INVESTORS411 has not changed its long term outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”
  • Therefore - “Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back”

The Dark Clouds/Oil Prices


This is now one obvious call that Investors411 first warned about on 1/6/12 and 1/17/12

Suggested ETFs for oil – USO (1 x oil prices) & UCO (2 x oil prices)

If you bought UCO on Jan. 17th you are now up

+20%

The primary fear behind this rise in oil prices is the threat of war between Israel and Iran.

Intrade, now puts the possibility of an overt air strike against by US or Iran by Dec 2012 at 42.5%.

  • This is political season and fear mongering is what the far right does best.
  • The current PM of Israel is extremely right wing and visits USA on March 5th.
  • Yes this is exactly what happened in Iraq.

Obama – on oil prices

Oil prices have gone up 9 days in a row and 12 of the last 13 days. By most all accounts overbought territory.

However, if you have lots of long positions, you should still think about some protection or taking some profits.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -6.88. 50 Day Moving Average at +20.20 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Lots of wiggle room for bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

  • The European canary in a coal mine is chirping. But focus is going to be drawn more on Israel/Iran because of the Israel PM visit and politics.
  • Italian 10 year bond yield at 5.45% (8:30 EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.

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Paul’s Corner

SIMO is being dropped from Your Stock List due to chart action.  The Semi Group has been doing well but SIMO broke down and hasn’t been following the group. It’s a maker of flash drives and will be watched for possible adding back to the list.

SWI is being moved from the Watchers section up to the Traders section.  SolarWinds, Inc. designs, develops, markets, sells, and supports enterprise information technology (IT) infrastructure management software to IT professionals. SWI and old member of a previous list is showing good chart action and may give us a good run.

Kudos to Ian Woodward!

You have heard me speak often about the HGS Investors group and Ian Woodward in particular. Ian is an inspiration to all that are lucky enough to come into contact with him. John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger bands concept, had some kind words for Ian when he was interviewed in the upcoming March issue of “Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities”. Here is what Bollinger says in part:

“A little more than two years ago, I had the pleasure of spending time with Ian Woodward, who has been doing some interesting things with Bollinger Bands.  It was an inspiring time for me.”

“Ian Woodward is an amazing guy….A couple of years back, a mutual friend arranged for Ian to drop by and show me the work he was doing, and I was very impressed.  Here was a man nearly XXX years old (true age redacted!!!) with more ideas and energy than most people half his age.  He has taken input from William O’Neil, Richard Arms and me and crafted an approach to investing that seeks to identify and participate in high-growth stocks.  He gives three day seminars twice a year that are jam-packed with interesting ideas.   I even had one of the guys who works for me attend.  I think that in the fullness of time he’ll be known as one of the great analysts.”

Ian’s next work shop is in a month if you are serious about investing you should attend!

http://www.highgrowthstock.com/Seminars/seminars.htm

European Markets are down, our futures are down, have we seen the top? Be careful!

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 16, 2012

Vampire Squids

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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Vampire Capitalists

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vampire squid red inside out

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Matt Taibbi’s

quote on Investment Bank Goldman Sachs –

A great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

However as we’ve seen over the course of the week its not just Goldman, but Republicans, Democrats, all investment banks, lobbyists, plutocrats and a host of wealthy individuals that have turned banking into an industry full of giant vampire squids.

These giant squids are still sucking today.

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vampire squid illustration


The Blood Sucked

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  • The rise and fall of the housing bubble.
  • massive loss in homeowner value
  • Banks collapsing others forced to merge
  • Stock markets around world melting down
  • The Great Recession
  • Massive rise in unemployment
  • Collapse threatened from Insurance (AIG) to Conglomerates (GE) companies
  • Stimulus to help (largest chunk a tax cut) increases deficit
  • “Financial Armageddon” threatened

More

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Dylan Ratigan Chart LINK

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  • Massive Debt
  • Outrageous bank fees
  • Declining Investment
  • Incentive to create debt not value
  • Loss of  finances innovation and product quality
  • Major factor in over leveraging European debt crisis
  • Banksters keep all the profits and bonuses
  • YOU pay for their losses

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Tomorrow – The Cover Up and

Some Solutions

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Republicans

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Rick Santorum

Releases 4 years of Tax returns

Simple question - If Romney and Gingrich are so proud of their wealth why not release 4 years of their returns like Santorum?

Vampire capitalists like to hide in the shadows

Real capitalist are not afraid of how they honestly earn money

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Romney at Bain Capital

Is Romney

a good Businessman?

Three companies are trying to sell a product – In this case the product is a candidate labeled- a Romney, a Santorum and a Gingrich.

  • The Romney company outspends the Santorum company 20 to 1
  • The Romney company outspends the Gingrich company 5 to 1.

The Bottom Line - Santorum is slightly ahead in the polls – Make all the excuses you want, but any business manager with this kind of cash advantage  not able to sell his product by now and obliterate his competition would be hearing these  words

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You’re FIRED

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

  • Mantra -INVESTORS411 has not changed its long term outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”
  • Therefore - “Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back”

Shorter Term

  • AAPL the mother of all stocks had a 5% drop off highs (2% loss for day) and this took stocks down with it. While AAPL did go elliptical, it had above average but not huge volume behind the move.
  • From Yesterday Tom Demark is an analyst  that major firms pay 5 figure amounts to use his advise.  Using one of his indicators roughly based on the fact that AAPL has been up 11 of the last 13 days, we should start to see a correction about now.
  • About a decade ago I was taking technical analysis classes at MIT with my friend Harold and I learned about Demark’s 13 day trend exhaustion Indicator. It has worked far more often than not when I have applied it. It sure worked yesterday.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -27.60. 50 Day Moving Average at +22.71 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Now in a clear falling (bearish) pattern. However, with such a high 50 dma we are near oversold/reversal of trend territory.  But still = NEUTRAL
  • 2 year MO chart This chart shows many reversals in trends  start around -60. Big  meltdowns 10%+ can go to -100 to -140. Since the 50DMA is so high (+23) we start oversold territory at -60 + +23 = -37

Investors411 has used this one simple timing indicator because it has been so successful for over a year.

  • What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping, but a negative trend has started.
  • Italian 10 year bond yield is now at 5.84% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back. But its moved up 5 days in a row. This may be just a technical rebound, but clearly now something to watch especially if  yield goes up at a rapid rate.
  • From Yesterday  - Bottom Line - “An AAPL led technical market correction is very possible. A 2 to 5% correction would be ”healthy” for stocks and a buy the dip opportunity.”
  • A yield approaching 7% would mean European manipulators are loosing control. You can be sure Investors411 will give a shout if the Italian Bond yield gets too high

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Paul’s Corner

A Shot Across The Bow!

Well gang the early shots have been fired across the bow. This bull market may not be over but the signs  point that way. I have linked to two charts of yesterday’s action with the VIX and the TVIX (2x VIX). Down kahuna’s for have been fired and the %B*BW are now up into early warning dangerous territory.

VIX Link

TVIX Link

I’m not going to explain what these charts show as Ian Woodward in his recent video does a great job of explaining. This is an excellent video, and it shows why I follow Ian. He is an excellent teacher. Please watch the video!

Ian’s video explaining these charts

This may be a minor blip in the bull market we have recently enjoyed so be careful, let’s let the market tell us where it is going. At the moment we have been warned, please be careful with any new long trades.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 15, 2012

Sucking America Dry

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

“Sucking America Dry”

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  • Monday we covered Levittown – How banks and the government worked together to build America.
  • Tuesday we covered how Lobbyists, “free market” bankstas, and politicians conspired to change the banking regulations that had kept America safe
  • Today we’ll cover some more changes the banksta’s and their politicians made and start to go over consequences.

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“The World’s Biggest

Ongoing Heist”


Once the Banksta lobby found they could shatter regulations protecting Americans and the world, they rewrote the way they did business. They created a…

“A secret casino where  the world’s wealthiest companies and individuals bet trillions in other peoples money – OUR money – exempted from laws that the rest of us have to follow.”

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The CDO

Consolidated Debt Obligation

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  • CDO was the first step. A “monster” bond that consolidated bank  debt (think mortgages). An investment bank would come in and buy that debt/bond and give the original bank a big hunk of cash. The original bank, therefore, wouldn’t have to wait agonizingly long for the homeowner to pay off his 30 year mortgage to profit.
  • This is basically a loan on a loan that blossomed from mortgages into everything from credit card to Greek debt.
  • Investment banksters suckered in everyone to take a pice of the action on these new legal bonds. Of course the rating agencies, who are paid by the bankstas  they rate, rated these new bonds AAA (the best)
  • Bankstas sold shares of these “blended” (good and bad credit risk) bonds to unsuspecting clients under the AAA seal of approval.
  • To protect themselves investment bankstas created a market where you could buy “insurance” against defaulting CDO’s. Except it was not called insurance, because insurance was heavily regulated by the government. It was called…

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Credit Default Swaps

Financial WMD’s” – Warren Buffett

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“Now these monster bonds are bet on in an unregulated private market, so no one has the legal right to see how the deals are being done.” In this CDS gambling parlor you can bet for or against each “monster” bond (CDO).

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Greed runs wild


No major Bankster has any reason to worry about making a “credit worthy” loan or even make a loan at all, because that’s all chump change net to the $600,000,000,000,000 CDS market

That’s right $600 trillion over leveraged, private, opaque CDS market. Bankstas and the plutocracy can make massive money just betting on the FAILURE or Success of each monster CDO bonds.

Bankstas privatize the gains

and YOU socialized the losses

But that’s tomorrow’s story


See inspiration for this editorial at bottom of blog’s OVERVIEW Section (list of editorials/books)

Quotes above come from Dylan Ratigan’sGreedy Bastards”

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A Must –

Ratigan’s chart on

Bankstas


LINK

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The Shameless Plutocrats

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Choking Off what’s Left of

Democracy

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What’s Getting trampled in the Dust of billionaires money is your voice in democracy – Paraphrase from Bill Moyer”s editorial

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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  • Some Traders/Investors/analyst were perplexed and amazed at the big rally of lows in the last half hour of trading. YOU should not be
  • MantraINVESTORS411 has not changed its outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.
  • ThereforeAnyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back

Notice who is watching who

  • A major victory for Obama, the US economy, and stocks. The deal on extending both the payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits adds stability and income to the US economy for the rest of the year.
  • AAPL , the mother of all stocks, volume has decreased for 4 straight days. Prices have increased for 8 straight days.
  • Tom Demark is an analyst  that major firms pay 5 figure amounts to use his advise.  Using one of his indicators roughly based on the fact that AAPL has been up 11 of the last 13 days, we should start to see a correction about now.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -15.97. 50 DMA at +22.71 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) With such a high 50 dma we are near oversold territory but still = NEUTRAL

  • What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping loudly and strong because the…
  • Italian 10 year bond is now at 5.65% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back.
  • Bottom Line – An AAPL led technical market correction is very possible. A 2 to 5% correction would be “healthy” for stocks and a buy the dip opportunity. However, in a Central Bank manipulated market we could see equities flatten for a period instead of dip. Long term outlook unchanged.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 14, 2012

Bankstas

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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The Cancer of

Banking Deregulation

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The Cancer of deregulation spread slowly at first as the banking lobby gained more power.

US Banks had a two fold problem

  • Banks were losing business to faster growing emerging market banks because of globalization.  Example Chinese trusted their own banks instead of BOA
  • Digitalization of the stock and bond markets crushed investment banks/brokers who used to cash in on the huge spreads between (1/8 and 1/4) bid and ask prices for securities were now valued in 1/100 or 0.01. They lost their cash cow to computers

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Since the Great Depression, we had kept the banking industry safe by not allowing

traditional banks, insurance companies and Wall Street investment firms to merge.

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That changed in in 1999

The Financial Services Modernization Act

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  • The bank Lobby, with the blessing of the “High Priest of free markets” Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed three Republicans legislators – Gramm, Leach & Bliley – to rip apart the safety net that had protected us since the Great Depression.
  • They found a willing friend in the Clinton White House - A banksta- The former head of the Goldman Sachs Robert Rubin and assistant Larry Summers.

Then came the second blow by bank lobbyists in rewriting financial laws

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The Commodities Future Modernization Act.

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  • Again blessed by “High Priest of Free Markets” Alan Greenspan,, Republican Richard Luger and a host of bipartisan co sponsers brought another devastating blow to banking regulations to the White house
  • It was again accepted by the same banksta crew in the treasury and became law.

This bill removed the capital requirements for banks. These requirements had been the incentive for banks to act as police to insure  their loans.

The old system where banks and their customers wanted each other to pay their debts to profit was gone. The new giant “too big to fail” institutions” could actually make money if loans defaulted.


To paraphrase Dylan Ratigan in Greedy Bastards


It is as if  a car dealer no longer had to make a safe reliable car, but could sell you a car that would explode. Then the car dealer would collect on both the money he made on the purchase of the car and the insurance when the car exploded.

Tomorrow  some of the missing details

How they cheat, CDO, Trillion lost, The coverup and more

But if  you want more now at the bottom of the Overview section has an extensive research biography

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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  • From Last Week - Market Fundamentals driving stocks have NOT changed in any dramatic way…a 2 to 5% correction would be healthy…view this as a buying opportunity…still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.
  • Repeat – “INVESTORS411 has NOT changed its outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”

  • Biggest beneficiaries of all this money printing seem to be beaten up sectors. XHB (housing ETF) is Investors411 pick, but there are lots of choices from semi conductors to banking.
  • Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher.  In the case of something like Italian bonds – the yields pushed lower.
  • AAPL Last night on his show Jim Cramer was beating the drums for Apple saying the stock should have jumped to 550 after its earnings report. Now at 503
  • The mother of all stocks is still exploding higher. What started out as climax selling (big move higher in huge volume) never followed through with a second day up in huge volume. Instead volume has dropped. (Use chart link above to see what real big volume looks like for AAPL – This did NOT materialize Friday or Monday)
  • Nevertheless, almost every technical indicator is screaming oversold.
  • Bottom Line – Technicals show that AAPL did not go through a major climax run, so the fall will not be as sever and there should be some waiting buyers who missed out on the rally that will cushion a fall.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +4.82.  50DMA at +22.74 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) With such a high 50 dma we are near oversold territory. = NEUTRAL

  • Repeat - What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping loudly and strong.
  • Italian 10 year bond is now at 5.49% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back.
  • Repeat from last week/yesterday  - “A 2 to 5 % correction would be healthy for the market.” But the canary is chirping

Rally Train

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********************

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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December 5, 2011

The Grand Slam Of Grand Slams

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

“The Grand Slam

of Grand Slams”


Dustin Pedroia’s Grand Slam vs Yankees

No this is NOT about Baseball,

but about a financial expert/reporter/editor Dylan Ratigan who was last featured in this blog on September 28. His Rant is the

“Grand Slam of Grand Slams.”


Dylan Ratigan

Wendy Thompson Anderson brings up the August on Air Rant of Ratigan in Investors411 comments section.


Her link to the Ratigan’s Rant.

‘Tens of trillions of dollars are being extracted from our financial system…

Check out Ratigan’s award winning financial background.

If you want to take action you to help

  • Join Get Money Out of Politics, I have joined along with 250,00o+ others
  • Wendy and her OWS friends deserve consideration.
  • You can pass on the Ratigan Rant to others.

Yankee Bob

Yankee Bob’s original editorial has been replaced with the following on Ratigan’s Rant.

Dylan Ratigan’s rant is a grand slam. It’s the Grand Slam of Grand Slams. It is inarguably right on target. Not only is it must see TV but it’s absolutely right on.

I have been saying for months that a 5th grader could solve our economic and social woes. I still believe it. So why is it so hard for our political class to do so? It’s the money!! IT’S  THE MONEY!!!

It’s the money that prevents our politicians from acting  on remedies and even when they do, it’s the money that defeats the initiatives and defeats the individuals pursuing them.

IT”S THE MONEY. Our politicians are bought and paid for. They MUST chase huge amounts of money simply to exist. The  media is literally bought and paid for and manipulates public perception of issues not, for the public good but,thru the narrow prism of corporate interests…

Continued in today’s comments section of blog.




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STOCKS


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The Fed To The Rescue


Last Wednesday the US Fed lead a group of Central Banks with promised funding for trouble Europe. WSJ Story on this. Even China’s Central Bank helped although it said it’s same day action was not coordinated with other Central Banks. They lie. The only noticeable absent institution was the German Central bank.


How the Fed tipped its hand Monday


  • Investors411 last Monday brought to light the secret $1.2 trillion in loans to INTERNATIONAL banks over the 2008 meltdown. It’s only natural to infer that they would do the same for International or globalized banks in the EURO meltdown.
  • Of course. the globalized banking system is further interconnected through financial WMD’s – Credit Default Swaps.
  • Italy & Spain after reaching the 7% yield danger zone [where other European countries entered a “controlled defaults” on a hunk of their bond debt}  rallied on Monday for no apparent reason.
  • The single largest entity on the planet able to take action is the Fed and it was rumored to be involved, since no other less powerful entity (Germans, IMF, ECB or bailout fund) had done anything but jaw bone
  • The Fed’s role was becoming more apparent. It was only a matter of timing as to when they would PUBLICLY act.  If bond yields remain too high for too long in Italy and Spain their debt structure becomes unsustainable’

Therefore, we had reached critical mass (a meltdown was imminent as bonds crossed the 7% yield levels) It was now or never time for the Cavalry/The Fed.

Banks Get Bailed Out

People get Sold Out


The corrupt crony over leveraged phony capitalist system is getting bailed out again. The people of Europe who have an imposed recession (austerity measures) staring them in the face. Again the blackmail – If we don’t bail out the bondholders/shadow banks then the EURO will collapse and the resulting damage worse.

The threat of financial Armageddon has again forced bailouts. Behind all the bailouts is again the Puppet Master of a corrupt globalized banking system  - Ben Bernanke.

As Yogi Berra would say Déjà vu all Over Again.


Bottom Line Remains - 10s of trillions of dollars of wealth (See Ratigan Rant above) are being transfered under a phony, corrupt, over leveraged, privatize the gains and socialize the losses system. Banksters use catch phrases like “free markets” and capitalism” to hide the massive shift of money.

Germany’s DAX today up +0.54% at 6:30 AM EST

Up +1.00% at 8:45 AM EST

.

********************

.

.

Reading The Tea Leaves


Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose to -2.58. 50DMA at +9.38 = Neutral

The MO has been an outstanding tool in helping to predict tops and bottoms. Investors411 will continue to use it as long as it works. However – This is a manipulated market so ALL technical tools are secondary. The actions of the Puppet Master are paramount.

From Last TuesdayFor now bulls rule … Bottom Line – Old Wall Street axiom

Don’t fight the Fed.

The Fed manipulated the puppet strings (some hidden others transparent) and the USA didn’t go over the cliff. Can they and their allies do the same in Europe? – They certainly picked a perfect spot to make a big move. Our MO indicator was at -100 or OMG oversold levels.


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Positions


YSL #7 is out and Paul has been updating it in the comment section of the blog.

EUO (double short the Euro currency)   1/2 position Bought at 18.60. Selling this position. Sold at 19.25 last Tuesday for @ +3.5% gain

Trades/Investments Under consideration-

  • APPL (long) AMZN (short) hedge trade.
  • GLD or DGP (double long gold)
  • SSO Double long S&P 500 – Will buy today

Woudda, Soudda Couldda entered more long positions on last Tuesday for Investors411 hypothetical portfolio. For now I settle for stocks that are trending well, but not over extended in YSL #7. Again watch for Paul’s comments on these.


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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

.

From Last Tuesday (AM) – BEFORE the giant Wednesday rally – The games afoot – But for now yesterday’s transparent Fed salvo – a giant worldwide equity rally – sure makes every investor remember four words -

Don’t Fight The Fed

The giant rally on Wednesday, forces another upgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

Buy the dip. The MO has a long way to go till we reach oversold. Paul’s phrase “You snooze You Lose” is appropriate.

.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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September 28, 2011

Get Money Out

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Get Money Out

Get the money out of politics. YOU can make a difference.

You can continue to be sheeple or perhaps take that first step

All you have to do is sign the petition then pass it on to your friends.

If you don’t fight for your democracy who will?

  • Obama’s biggest contributor (bundled) was Goldman Sachs
  • Romney’s biggest contributors are from Wall Street.
  • Chairmanships of congressional comittees are now decided on who gets the most contibutions from the sector they govern. (Example Banking comittee – the poll who got the most $ from banksters gets to be chairman)

Want to know more LINK

Last Blog for Week

Back Monday

__________________


Stocks

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES


The below Chart is from ETF Digest’s David Fry. David shares the same cynical opinion that Investors411 has on High Frequency Trading (HTF’s) that dominate stock trading.

His Chart shows what happened to US equities (specifically the influence of HTF’s who are “in charge”)

SPY 5 MINUTE

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Market Analysis

Focus on TechnicalsFundamentals & HFT’s

  • “Window Dressing” Rally – This is the last week of the 3rd 1/4 for stocks. Just like the last weeks of so many other quarters we are in rally mode. A major reason behind this weeks rally is window dressing and a reason stock markets should continue to advance until the end of October (Friday). Many of our YSL stocks are outperforming, in part, because of this.
  • Trend Kicking the can down the road on Greece is mana from heaven for HFT’s who can use every news items to execute short squeezes, pump and dumps or catching institutional traders with losing long positions. An extremely strong correlation exists between European and US markets.
  • Long Term Stock Trend - The benchmark S&P 500 (see chart on right side of blog) has spent the entire months of August and September trading below the 50 & 200 day price moving average (red and blue lines on chart) – Any credible analyst will tell you that’s a bearish sign.

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

  • The PCR rose to +1.13 (Roughly - above 1.25 is getting Bearish and below 0.80 is getting Bullish. 1.00 = same amount of puts and calls. Over last two years the highest for PCR is @1.50 and lowest @0.60 - anything approach these levels shows change likely For more information on PCR LINK) Above 1.00 which makes it a wee bit bullish, but overall = Neutral

The McClellan Oscillator

  • (MO) rose  to +22.95 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold & +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought) Another rally will bring the bears out, but for now = Neutral

__________________________


Reading The Tea Leaves

Short Term Outlook

days, week+

  • Both Forecasting tools have shifted to Neutral.  But HFT dominated markets have built up some major momentum  - So chances are we’ll keep moving higher till overbought indicators start flashing a turn around.
  • Financials (ETF = XLF) are the sector to watch. Long term their chart is bearish, like the S&P 500. Shorter term there is a series of lower highs and lows on the chart = bearish. No market rally can sustain itself without this group.
  • Bottom Line for rest of weekBulls still have the momentum, till the MO and PCR reach overbought levels.

Longer Term Outlook

month, months

  • Repeat Same old mantra May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May. For the Fed to act significantly – inject more liquidity - I’m afraid we need to see stocks do worse for that to happen.

_________________________


Detective

Demystifying and Discussing

Simple Option Strategies


by JS


PUTS


(Note:  I volunteered for this column when I saw no one else did, and I had years of experience using calls, especially for increasing income on stocks I own.  However I’ve limited experience in using puts, but I can see ways they are very useful.) [Mucho Thanks from all of us - editor]

Put options are a way to force someone (the person who sold you the put) to buy the stock at a fixed price, no matter how much lower the price of the stock currently is.

Note: you don’t actually sell it to someone personally; it’s like buying or selling stock. When you sell, someone invisible  (or an institution) is at the other side, buying it.

Using put options

Puts protect you from indecision and accidents.  Example: if you own CROX and want to protect profits, or you just bought it and want to limit your loss in this volatile market, this put can do it.

-CROX111022P27 (Oct 22, 2011, strike price of 27).   Friday CROX closed at $27.58.  If you paid $27.58 and you bought this put at the same time, this is how you stand:

  • Sock price ………………..$27.58
  • Put price …………………..$ 1.95
  • Cost……………………… …$29.53

If CROX drops, your loss is limited to $29.53 -$27.00 (strike price of put) or $2.53, a little less than 10%.  But the beauty of this is that if it drops, you can still hold CROX till Oct 21 before you “put” it  at $27. It could go down to 20 in a bad day, but you can keep holding it in case it rebounds, and in this market, it very well can. If it goes up past $29.53, you are into profit. In this market, if CROX is a good pick, it could go much higher.

The negative: no profit till $29.53.  The positive: you limit your loss to 10%. If you bought CROX at a much lower price, you’ve also protected your profits.

Put option: negative: increases cost of stock. Positive: real protection till Oct 22. And you can hold stock in case it recovers quickly and reaches profit level.

Please note:  The title of this column is “Demystifying and DISCUSSING Simple Option Strategies”.  It is very helpful to readers of Investors411 if some of you who use options, post some comments.

_____________________


Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

NLYWill buy back into  this high dividend stock on Dip. The date you have to hold the stock comes up on Wednesday. Since the 1/4ly dividend is usually between 3 and 4% the stock often goes down close to that amount after this date. Everyone expects this so Put’s offer little protection for this incident.

GLD - From Two days ago – (Investors411 did not make this trade) Traders who can handle the risk – a third gap down at open and another  significant fall should bring us to longer term support levels. GLD is at very oversold levels. This risk on trade worked like a charm. Investors411 on trades takes 1/2 off the table after +5% and sets a stop loss at the price the stock/ETF (GLD)was bought for. Let the rest ride. Kudos for whose who made $$$

Traders - The risk on trade has worked and now watch for overbought signs (MO & PCR) as an exit and a reversal of the trend.

Investors - This is a crowded trade, but I think it’s a winner.  Short financials and long small caps or technology. There will be a slightly different price at the open.

  • Short Financials – Investors411 will use ultra short SKF (closed at 78.91)
  • Long technology - Investors411 will use ultra long QQQ (tech’s) QLD (closed at 81.13)
  • It helps that the prices re almost equal.
  • Of course, those who know how to use puts (on financials) and calls (on technology) – this is another way to go.

Exit strategy – I do hope to hold this into the end of the year, but will exit  if it looses over 7% and take some profits after +5%.

Disclaimer I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.

_________________________


Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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September 15, 2011

Heroes (2)

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

An Endorsement

“The stunning lack of accountability for the greed and misdeeds that brought America to its gravest financial crisis since the Great Depression.”Frank Rich - New Yorker magazine - “Obama’s Original Sin”


The single most important and vocal person in the white house over the last three years who fought for this accountability is Elizabeth Warren. Phenomenal editorial Warren vs. The Banks

Warren is the ONLY candidate out there that this web site endorses for political office.


Another Hero

Dylan Ratigan

  • 10 years financial reporter/editor Bloomberg LP
  • 5 years with #1 financial network
  • Creator and host of CNBC’s “Fast Money.”
  • Co host “Closing Bell.”

He left that high paying job to fight for what he believes in – accountability. His new show is on MSNBC (4:00 to 5:00 EST)  Here’s a LINK to an August 9th on air Meltdown over the Meltdown.  The emotion is real, but its what he says that matters.

You have to love the title of his upcoming book – “Greedy Bastards.” Radio Free Dylan often carries some outstanding editorials like this one “Why No Handcuffs?” Some major points Dylan often hammer’s home and Investors411 shares.

  • The $600 trillion swaps market is still an unregulated, hidden in shadows exchange. – It is the Credit Default Swaps that Warren Buffett termed financial WMD’s. The reason so many investment institutions were vulnerable/over leveraged in 2008
  • How to you build a viable economic system when the backbone financial systems are hidden in the shadows and too big to fail?
  • His four solutions to fixing the system LINK - Another LINK

[For Heroes Part 1 see November 10th Investors411]

__________________

__________________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Do up 1 to 2% up
NASDQ
up
S&P 500
up
Russell 2000
-

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Market Analysis

Focus on TechnicalsFundamentalsHFT’s

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week/week+

  • There simply is no other explanation to yesterday massive swings than HFT were having a field day juicing and then sucking up profits from stocks. No fundamental news out there merited a 340 point Dow rally from the low, then a 140 point fall into the close.
  • Europe played kick the can down the road over Greece defaulting on its loans. The real story is can European banks, which are up to their necks in Credit Default Swaps on Greece and other PIIGS, stay solvent.
  • Trend - Kicking the can down the road is mana from heaven for HFT who can use every news items to execute short squeezes, pump and dumps or catching institutional traders with losing long positions

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

  • The PCR fell  to 1.05 (Roughly - above 1.25 is getting Bullish and below 0.80 is getting Bearish. 1.00 = same amount of puts and calls)(last two years the highest for PCR is @1.50 and lowest @0.60 - anything approach these levels shows change likely For more information on PCR LINK)  We built a lot of Put positions over the last 3 days but it has been steadily decreasing. The  1.05 close yesterday is Neutral, but the inventory/backlog of Puts makes the callBullish/Neutral.
  • Investors411 uses the PCR to measure the path of least resistance for HFT dominated stock market. HFT’s love leverage and if there are more puts then calls, there is simply a supply glut on one side that forces a move to the other. See above.

The McClellan Oscillator

  • (MO) rose to +28.59 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought) Just one point away from mildly overbought. But still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

HFT pushed stocks 140 points higher than they closed at. What happened? – The algorithms HFT’s use all clicked in and recognized a rapid overbought position. If we had ended the day 140 points higher our MO would have been near +50 (many other indexes that measure oversold/overbought would have shown the same) They pumped the market higher and then dumped into the close and took their nano second and multi second trade profits.

HFT’s are going to pull your chain on any event/rumor as long as they exist - Get used to it - HFT’s are here to stay.

Today, we have bullish/Neutral PCR, and an almost somewhat oversold MO = Neutral. So we’re NEUTRAL right now with just a touch of bullish mixed in.

Translation - US Stocks have no major bias higher or lower. Just a wee bit of the bull. This doesn’t mean HFT’s can not do a mega roller coaster on stocks, especially if there is meaningful fundamentals.

Longer Term Outlook

month, months

  • Repeat Same old mantra - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May. For the Fed to act significantly – inject more liquidity - I’m afraid we need to see stocks do worse for that to happen,

________________


Paul’s Corner

Fortes Fortuna Adjuvant - this can be translated as “fortune favors the strong.”

The title borrowed from Dave Steckler’s Blog last evening and we will look at the semis by using Relative Strength to determine the best semi.

Before we get into the semis here is a comment from Dave’s blog last evening which explained the jump in the market Wednesday:

The S&P 500 Index gained 1.35% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.60%.  The rally came on hopes for progress in resolving the Greek debt crisis.  Oil and precious metals prices fell and the U.S. dollar retreated from its recent gains. It’s always nice to see a 100+ point up day but keep in mind the Dow was up 280 points a half-hour before the close.

So while a few YSL 5 stocks had a great day, let’s not hold our breath too long hoping this is the start of the big long awaited rally.

Dave Stecklers Blog is always worth reading and his latest blog has  a great discussion on Relative Strength and how it’s used to research the market and in this issue he also looks at the semis.

Dave Stecklers Blog  LINK

As we found out several days ago, the semis are starting to draw attention. YSL 4 member SPRD appeared several times last week on the “Best of Woodard and Brown” screen on HGSI. The semi group index jumped to the top of the HGSI Industry Group sort on Monday Sept 12.

Industry Group Sort  LINK

There are 112 semis in the Semiconductor Industry Group which is too many to follow. I made up a user group of the top 10 stocks in the group,  the reason these were the first out of the “gate” so at the moment we can assume these are the stocks to follow.

AMD, ARMH, CAVM, LLTC, MXIM, MCHP, NVDA, SMTC, SPRD, TXN

To determine the strongest stocks within this group, we used the “Ian Slow” Relative Strength chart on HGSI. It measures the 6 month RS  with the most emphasis on the closet 3 months. Here is the RS chart of these 10 stocks based on the Wednesday close Sept 14.

Relative Strength Chart LINK

As you can see SPRD is top dog with ARMH and MXIM not far behind. Briefly looking at the charts, these three look ok. SPRD has had a nice run and will probably give us a few buy the dip opportunities.

Some of  you may be wondering why Dave and I are posting on Semis and Relative Strength at the same time. Do I read Dave’s blog for my ideas? No, but I will admit he has some brilliant discussion at times and worth ripping off. Dave and I both use HGSI for our research and of late HGSI has shown the semis are on the move. HGSI  has a valuable Relative Strength function that let’s you dig out what’s going on and we both see a change in the semis worth investigating.

But but but, Cramer just came out suggesting the semis, so why do “I” need HGSI? I just need to follow Cramer! Well that Mad Money man does have some interesting ideas and he surely follows the market and presents it in an interesting way. But do you have the time to sit down and watch each evening to catch the latest trend? Do you even get home at 6 PM in time to see each show?   Using HGSI each evening one can fully evaluate the market moves of the day, see what’s coming on or going away and come up with a list of stocks worth spending your kids inheritance on all in a matter of minutes. So with HGSI you get time management and great stock research.

If you didn’t see it here is a link to Cramer’s video on semis, it‘s quite good. See which semis he recommends.

Cramers semi video link: LINK

So do we jump into the semis?  Your guess is as good as mine, probably yes, but when considering the PIIGS problem across the pond?

The usual worthless disclaimer applies.  You buy any of these dogs and lose your house don’t whine to me, whine to Barr.

________________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

Our forecasting tool are Neutral (see above) - You rather enter oversold markets and exit overbought markets.

Positions

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock –a @14% dividend

pot of gold

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Bought at 167.05 - Sold 1/2 for 180.4 Current price 177.21. Stop/sell order on GLD at 167.05. Now looking to buy small dip in price.

DisclaimerI buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.

_______________

Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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July 20, 2011

It’s Free

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

Lori Wallach

Free Trade

Whenever you hear the sale picth its Free, warning bells should go off in your head. The same is true for branding concepts like Free” Markets and Free” Trade.

“Free Trade” is simply a branding concept used by major corporations and their politicians (From Obama to Bush)  Let’s use a few examples -

  • NAFTA the supposed free trade agreement of the early 90′s between the USA – Mexico and Canada cost the USA 879,280 jobs between 1993 & 2002.
  • Our supposed free trade deal with China – We tax Chinese goods at 2.5% and they tax our goods at 25%
  • Now we have a supposed “free trade” deal with with 3 more countries.  Example Panama – A global tax haven and money laundering center for major corporations/banks

Here’s the LINK to a short video by Dylan Ratigan featuring former CEO of AT&T and Lori Wallach from Public Citizen Even when you factor in the lower prices of goods from abroad the average American looses” $7,000 a year” from the 11 “free trade” agreements.

Corporate America dumped more jobs during the 2008 meltdown than any other time in history. Wall Street is recovering nicely, but Main Street America still suffers. How can Americans fix any deficit without jobs?

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.63% Up
NASDQ +2.22% Up
S&P 500 +1.63% Up
Russell 2000 +2.29% -

_______________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Moderately oversold US equities (-48 on the MO) had a big time rally in increased, above average volume.  News of some more rational Senators (Gang of Six – 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats) coming up with a debt solution that Obama would likely accept added rocket fuel to the rally.

Apple Pie

  • APPL hit yet another earnings run earnings report after the market closed and is was up over 6% in after hours trading = Bullish. For those of you who think Apple is mom, USA and apple pie. 62% of Apple’s earnings come from abroad.
  • Today is the confirmation day of yesterday’s rally. Holding onto the rally or making further gains is bullish. Tech giants GOOG, AAPL, IBM and others are getting showered with profits . All are adding job after job abroad
  • Wall Street was sending a message to politicians over the debt crisis yesterday. Any hope of a bipartisan resolution is going to send stocks higher and a breakdown is going to send stocks lower. As mentioned two weeks ago – “If the US debt default starts to hurt stocks, politicians will fix the problem rapidly because their campaigns are all funded by an elite oligarchy of insiders.”
  • Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically to -13.73 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold. The more oversold we get the better the chance for an oversold rally) Lots of room for MO to move higher or lower = Neutral
  • $USD The Dollar fell -0.35% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Price chart shows we are in a month+ long trading range.  For stocks= Neutral
  • Reading The Tea LeavesFrom yesterday-48 on the MO, is usually a figure that oversold stocks bounce higher from. But how high and far is up to the the fundamentals of Europe and US debt.”  -14 on the MO means there is a lot of room for stocks to roam. Solid earnings in techs are bullish, but all eyes still on US congress.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • RepeatIt’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki dance over the debt will end. Therefore, hanging in their with a NEUTRAL Long Term Forecast. However, perception slightly favors bulls.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

GLD & SLVStill waiting to buy. Will announce when in comments section of blog. Their price is linked most notably to US debt kabuki dance in congress. If we achieve a rational compromise, then gold will come down to a safer level to buy.

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks (also a couple other long term investments) including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and ETF’s. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

I firmly believe you can make money with BOTH long term investments and short term trades. See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

Don’t forget to send in your stock choices fro our new Stock List #5

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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