Violence In America -Rape

Susan Brownmiller. Against Our Will is her 1975 groundbreaking book which states rape “is nothing more or less than a conscious process of intimidation by which all men keep all women in a state of fear.”

You may think that this statement goes too far, but it brought the crime of rape out of the closet. You can find out more about this late American hero and her fight for women and against rape at http://www.susanbrownmiller.com

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Some statistics from Ohio Univ.

• In the United States, 1.3 women are raped every minute. That results in 78 rapes each hour, 1872 rapes each day, 56160 rapes each month and 683,280 rapes each year.
• 1 out of every 3 American women will be sexually assaulted in her lifetime.
• The United States has the world’s highest rape rate of the countries that publish such statistics. It’s 4 times higher than Germany, 13 times higher than England, and 20 times higher than Japan.
• 1 in 7 women will be raped by her husband.
• 83% of rape cases are ages 24 or under.
• 1 in 4 college women have either been raped or suffered attempted rape.
• 1 in 12 males students surveyed had committed acts that met the legal definition of rape. Furthermore, 84% of the men who had committed such acts said what they had done was definitely not rape.
• 75% of male students and 55% of female students involved in acquaintance rape had been drinking or using drugs.

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Happy to see that those in the, always vibrant, comments section seemed to have come to the conclusions that there is a Violence Problem in America.

I have no idea what motivated the insanity behind the assassination attempt of the Democratic Arizona Congresswoman and resulting deaths, but its long past time we deal with the “conscious problem of intimidation” that keeps us all in fear and other aspects of American violence.

President Obama is asking for a moment of Silence at 11:00AM EST for victims in Arizona.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.19%	up
NASDQ	-0.25%	down
S&P 500	-0.18%	up
Russell 2000	-0.45%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Markets fell in the AM on a MA Supreme Court ruling preventing foreclosures – who the hell knows who owns the property –  derivatives on mortgages
• Employment report 9.4% headline was good, but the 103,000 jobs created was below expectations.
• So many analysts have said this for so long its got to happen sooner rather than later – markets overdue for correction
• I remain convinced that good economic news for the USA is OK for stocks, but bad news is better because it means more quantitative easing by the Fed.
• Here Comes Earnings Season by John Nayardi. – Flat to down week

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The ”schizophrenic.” pattern changed back to the bears Friday

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Markets that are erratic often indicate a change. After so many weeks of listening to analysts say we are too high, I’m finally starting to believe it.

Monday’s are usually very good, but think some investors are going to be worried about earnings season.

What to watch

AAPL – Broke out again, or rather inched out again+0.72% to a new high. This is your market leader if it breaks down so will stocks.

UUP – Tracking ETF for dollar. At 23.36 now and breakout level at just above 23.5.  Any significant move above this level is trouble for stocks.

Working on 2011 Investment guide - Short term more bearish, but bullish in long term for the year.

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Positions

• UWM
• REMX -(ETF for Rare Earth Metals) Wednesday – Sold 1/2 at 26.12 for +6% gain Got stopped out at 23.76 for a -4% loss. Total +1% gain

NB -

• No matter how much I like a stock I usually keep a 5 to 7% trailing stop on volatile ETF’s.
• Cut back to one position so obviously not very bullish in short term.
• Tightening trailing stop to 4% on 1/2 of UWM

Under consideration

UCO -(2x oil prices) Very erratic, waiting till correction settles.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) -   Will buy back hopefully on slight dip. Only ETF under consideration at this time.

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky because its leveraged 3X. Waiting for larger pull back on both.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. -  Both overbought at this time

DGP – Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

No Its NOT Either One

Quantitative Easing 2

What the hell is QE 2 and why is it so important to YOU?

Background – Back in 2008 our no rules economic capitalism (Some call it casino capitalism others the “free market”) brought us to the brink of disaster. Back in 2008 Investors411 stated the economic situation here was “far far far far far worse” than anyone expected.

There have been four major money dumps or solutions to prevent a Great Depression in the USA. Other countries have had their own money dumps.

• TARP
• Stimulus Plan
• QE 1
• QE 2

Simply put the Fed is again in the middle of another massive money dump or printing money. Between QE #1 & 2 we are talking trillions of dollars. The Fed has implied it will do whatever it takes to keep the economy afloat. So who knows how long the QE 2 will stay in effect.

What happens when you inject this cash is the dollar falls in value and in the future inflation becomes a problem. One example/impact is the globalized value of your home falls. Japan has already started to play the same game. Europe and Great Britain will probably follow. This is why people are buying gold because it sure looks like QE 2 to is going full speed ahead and is soon to be followed by other ships/countries

Will QE 2 work? Hindsight is wonderful and so far there has been NO second Great Depression.

The opaque US Financial Institutions that benefit from these funds have not been forced by congress to become transparent capital entities. (see past Investors411) So its impossible to venture a guess behind all the smoke and mirrors other than these shadow institutions have been given a mountain of money to fill the huge hole they dug.

What I can tell you is to watch the dollar’s fall. Its now at $77.44. Last year’s low was just above $74 and the 2008 low above $71. That’s the last two lines in the sand that everyone’s watching. A more lasting impact of all this printed money is inflation. Of course, the falling dollar has led to a rising stock market. Many think this is another bubble.

America’s strength has been the vibrancy of her democracy and capital markets. When democracy and capital markets become less transparent and money flows become hidden or restricted to an oligarchy or unbreakable monopoly then all America suffers.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.05%	down
NASDQ	+o.02%	down
S&P	+0.01%	down
Russell 2000	-0.01%	-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Yesterday’s semi holiday was like watching paint dry on for US indexes. Extremely light volume was typical of Columbus day and the fact that many investors have left the stock market over the year

There are lots of other technical indicators out there besides the one Investors411 focuses on (The MO) that show markets are overbought.

The benchmark S&P 500 is about 5% from yearly high and many emerging markets that have lead this rally are at new highs.

Repeat from yesterday – Fundamental Outlook on Wall Street - “The concept of a double-dip recession has been replaced with slow and steady improvement, and even if we don’t get it, we have a Federal Reserve that’s ready to step in and support the rally,”said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jeffery’s.

Earnings season gets its first major report  after today’s close as tech giant INTC (Intel Computer) announces.  How the market digests this news is often a decent forecasting tool for the next few weeks.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose +0.34%  yesterday. Yesterday’s action slightly bearish for stocks but overall trend of falling dollar trend is = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a smidge -0.04% yesterday An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall. A week long rally flattens out.  = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell slightly to to +18.62. Still lots of room to move higher or lower. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Earnings Season has the juice to alter the bulls stampede. We’ll have to wait to see what’s in INTC’s reports and how Wall Street reacts to have a better picture.

Otherwise the same bullish pattern dominates.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity).
• SSO (2x what S&P does)

Check out Paul R’s always enlightening updates on individual stocks and sectors in the comments sections.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Bill Mahr

Last week he had Tom Friedman and this week he had Lincoln Chafee (former moderate Republican Senator) on his HBO show real time with Bill Mahr.  He’s sometimes over the top, always funny, and gives a non regurgitated version of current events.

His most important stat this week was 1% of the USA had 8% of the wealth in 1980 when Reagan took office. Now that 1% has 23% of the wealth .

Right now up on his web site is “How Sarah (Silverman) saves the world – Provocative and funny LINK

Obama’s Closet

Sitting on the desk in the Main Room is going to be that big shiny Nobel Peace Prize, but what happens when we open the closet door.

• 13,000 more troops for Afghanistan (Obama’s “Necessary” war) LINK to WaPo story.  Obama’s words are sweet 7 he will have his Peace Prize.. But his action are totally different – now the USA has in Afghanistan and Iran “more troops than the peak during the Iraq “surge” that President George W. Bush ordered.”
• Paulson (Bush’s Sec. of Treas.) instead of using TARP funds to absorb bad debt (CDS’s) gave the money to shadow institutions. Obama continued the practice and even allowed them to change their accounting practices so that they would not have to show bad debt. (eliminated mark to market accounting) You can call this good, bad or ugly. But the reality is, just like Bush he is privatizing profits and socializing risk.
• How the hell are you going to reform anything (health care, medicare etc.) when all the money continues to go to shadow institutions and war.

Your Comments

Both D .& Sherwehe have opened a debate that enlightened anyone who has not fallen hook line and sinker for the fear mongering militarists who run the USA. What if the “$3 trillion ” going to fight wars went instead to other causes? Check out the comments and join the debate.

4 Factors Moving Stocks/Wall Street

Editorial below under Technical and Fundamentals. Unfortunately, these factors may move socks higher, but what’s good for Wall Street will not always help Main Street USA.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	+0.21%	flat
NASDQ	-0.01%	down
S&P500	+0.44%	flat
Russell2000	-0.18%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Basically the US markets have been up 5 days in and overbought markets hesitated yesterday.  The Dow has eked out a new yearly high, but the other major indexes still have a point or two to break out to new highs. Four major factors stand in the way of a breakout (Actually there are lots of factors or potential factors, but three keys.)

1. The Dollar – Discussed below
2. The BDI – Again below
3. Technicals – You have an overbought market that has risen in decreasing volume in front of major resistance level. = Bearish . However you do have one major US stock index and several foreign stock indexes (Brazil, Australia & some others) that have broken out to new highs. Also commodities like gold have had solid breakouts. = Bullish
4. Earnings Season – Three major tech companies report this week – INTC, GOOG, & IBM . Everyone is looking for top line growth -sales. Last earnings season it was Intel’s  (reports tonight) expectations of a bit better top line that juiced markets. Three major shadow banks JPM (today),GS (tomorrow) report & BAC (Friday) .

Bottom Line – The shadow banks will continue to do well. Bush, Obama, and Bernanke (The Fed & our government) have privatized the profits and socialized the risk. The oligarchy, just like in a communist country soaks up the wealth. As long as they are NOT forced to use mark to market accounting and have the

The big tech companies should benefit from the falling dollar. They have cut jobs in the USA and will first hire people where labor is cheapest and closest to growing markets that do not have huge debt – China & other emerging markets. The question is has top line growth abroad (China’s stimulus package & other emerging markets) been strong enough. China, Brazil, India S, Korea (the 4 majors) combined are growing but their combined GDP’s are total 1/2 of the USA’s.

This will radically change in the next decade as they continue to out preform the USA. The US is burdened with massive debt, phony wealth created by shadow banks and huge war costs.

Best read of tea leaves – Shadow banks will do well. Less sure about Big tech, but there will be no huge earnings miss. Therefore, expect other indexes to follow gold & Brazil.

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 40% (I haven’t done the math) off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI nine day rally flattened out yesterday. It rose a +1 points yesterday and closed at 2696 . Even thougha reversal seems eminent, we have technically achieved a higher high =  Bullish for stocks & world trade

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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

The dollar reached a new yearly low (barely) last week and fell -0.35 % The dollar closed at 76.16. We have developed a support level just below $76.

NB – Earnings will probably trump the dollar as the #1 influencing factor for the nest two weeks. But the falling dollar is the main driver of stocks right now and we have a long way to go till we hit last year’s $71 low.

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Our positions in gold GLD and Brazil EWZ are clearly out preforming US markets and our China/smaller S. Korea position. The later two are approaching new highs. Would buy more of GLD & EWZ on dips. On a purely funadamental basis financials should lead any rally and are therefore a decent short term trade

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!