Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
May 29, 2012

Helicopters & Dog Poop

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Germany/Berlin

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12 top Thoughts on

Berlin/Germany Trip

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  • More outdoor Cafe’s than Paris – Wide sidewalks.
  • Phenomenal tram/train system – Moves millions each day
  • Lots of Graffiti – Origins from Berlin Wall – Most of it art work, but lots trash.
  • No slums – I couldn’t find any in 9 days.
  • Absence of smog – From vistas you can see for miles without cloudy brown scum.
  • Forest in center of city and each major neighborhood has huge park – Mine has a Beer Garden in the center.
  • Beware of cyclists (lots) – Separate bike lanes everywhere. – Germans obey pedestrian signals
  • Streets/parks are safe to walk anytime (Homicide rate 6X less than USA)
  • Most expensive baby carriages I’ve ever seen. Lots (More on German Health care later)
  • Best behaved dogs (mostly smaller) I’ve ever seen – But beware it takes a day/two for them to cleanup dog poop.
  • You can carry open beer anywhere (Street/tram)
  • Large immigrant population (@12% like USA) Like USA they seem to be second class citizens.

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Mucho Thanks to my

pregnant daughter and her guy

for hosting/putting up with me.

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I understand why you chose

Berlin as a place to live.

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Standard German joke – The German police discharged their weapons 87 times (low crime rate) last year – Once at a fellow German and 86 times at Greeks.

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STOCKS

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This month’s Atlantic Magazine

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Why The USA has tools to Fix

Its Economy and

Europe Does NOT

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The Answer lies in the

Activist Fed Bank

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Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and The Fed have the power to set interest rates. The singular difference in this case is the Fed has creatively/controversially printed money to solve/paper over our fiscal/banking crisis.

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Over $7 trillion – Detractors

$2.9 trillion – The Fed

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It’s why you often

see this cartoon of

Helicopter Ben


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  • As a stock investors/trader you have to give Bernanke/the Fed lots of credit. Every time they have directly stimulated the economy/printed money -QE #1 & 2, Operation Twist, (and other ways) stocks have gone UP
  • Also, along with the Obama stimulus/tax cuts and other measures, GDP has gone from from a -8.9% to a relatively steady +2%.

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The Case against Fed Intervention

Inflation

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  • The Fed’s critics (mostly far right)  starting with TARP have screamed INFLATION will come -
  • Examples – WSJ (The Bond Vigilante editorial) MS (5.5% inflation by end of 2010) Bond King Bill Gross, S&P downgrade of AAA rating, of course Republicans, especially Ron Paul.

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Problem is year after year

They’re WRONG

NO Inflation has happened

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  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation and it stands at @2.3%. Our 10 year T bill stands at less than 2%.
  • Our dollar is a bit weaker (you could argue that this is good for the USA) but by no means has it melted down. (currently moving higher)
  • DEBT – One reason our Debt is not a Clear and present Danger is that if you adjust for the rate of Inflation 2.3% and how we pay for debt – 10 year Treasury bonds >2.0% (shorter term Treasuries even LESS) we are actually paying down the debt by at least +0.3%

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The EU’s Problem

Unlike our Fed

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No Direct Intervention

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  • The EU has economically sound countries and its PIIGS – The S in PIIGS stands for Spain
  • I in PIIGS stands for Italy (EU’s largest economically unsound country). It’s debt is @120% of yearly GDP (ours @100%)
  • Italian bonds costs Italy (according to Megan MeArdle in this months Atlantic) 5% of GDP each year,
  • Japan with more than a 200% debt/yearly GDP ratio has a more interventionist central bank. Japan had a 1.0% growth in GDP last quarter (smaller than USA, but more than Europe)
  • Japan has had low interest rates for a decade so debt is manageable. (There is a case for higher interest rates – but that’s another editorial)

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Bottom Line

Other problems have

NOT been mentioned

But

If the ECB does NOT institute

more direct intervention

Remember What happened to the

Dodo Bird?

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PAUL’S Corner

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[Sorry this was supposed to run on Friday, but there was No 411 in Friday (Editor)]

As we take off a few days for the 1st official weekend of summer let’s take time to remember our fallen heroes and all of the men and women who have served our country.

A quick review of the charts we find the following stocks from YSL are looking decent and should be watched once this correction is over.

DDD

DLTR

HD

LEN

MNST

TSCO

From the April List

FL (for you Jim)

SWI

AKRX

A few extras to watch

BNNY

ITB

MDVN

ROST

XHB

TNGO

SPB

PATK

AVD

Disclaimer – you know the drill, any stock mentioned is for education only and if you buy any of these dogs…..


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Investors411 currently focuses on the yield of the Spanish 10 year bond as our canary in a cold mine. In a globalized world this rate strongly impacts Europe and less strongly, but significantly the USA. The rate would have to close back below its support at 6.31% for 411 to consider a NEUTRAL upgrade.

Currently you can find the Italian 10 year bond rate here Last look at &:00AM EDT it was 6.46%

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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March 6, 2012

Rich Get Richer

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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Income Equality

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Berkley Economist Emmanuel Saez

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Top 1% make 93%

of the gains in 2010

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The first post recession data has been compiled by an academic (One that doesn’t work for the 1%) economist  Emanuel Saez. Story at Huffington Post

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Damn Its great to be

a millionaire/billionaire in America

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Remember middle class working Americans -

Vote to Keep their tax rate at just 15%

Let them cut more of

YOUR Social Security and Medicare instead


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Rush Limbaugh

Update

12 companies have dropped Limbaugh and several radio stations. The Best source on updates is Media Matters.

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

  • Yesterday Investors411 warned of “some other dark clouds on the horizon”. Technically a pull back (say 3 to 5%) would be healthy for the market. So would a flat consolidation period. It now looks more like we may get the pull back.
  • Daily stock pattern has been a sell off in the AM and a recovery later in the day. Also, low volume, partly due to investors waiting for employment numbers at end of week.
  • News out of Europe is not good today. Probably Greece. Iran war fears will scare investors.  Major event of week is employment report Friday. Short term :cry:
  • The long term trend – Don’t fight the Central Banks – As long as they are dumping liquidity (printing money) to cover up losses anyone who has thought stocks would falter over the last three years has been on the wrong side of this trade.
  • How to measure if Trend is OK in USA – The ten year treasury bond is at  a low 2.05%. “Operation Twist” ($400 billion in Fed $) is keeping it that way. Low interest rates forces money seeking higher returns into stocks. When this rate start to rise into a danger zone I’ll let you know.
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -47.45.  (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Very close to oversold territory which starts at -60. = NEUTRAL
  • How to tell is the Trend is OK in Europe – Our canary in the coal mine – the 10 year Italian bond. The ECB has introduced $1.33 trillion of liquidity driving bond prices down.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield reversed direction and rose today to 4.99% (7:00 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone.

Bottom Line –  A buy the dip opportunity may be opening up for both long term investors and short term traders. More tomorrow.

NB _ Investors411 has recommended USO or UCO (Options – Calls if you like)  as a hedge against and Iran attack that would decimate a long term portfolio.

Always check out –

Your Stock List 2012

at bottom of POSITIONS Section of blog.

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See Paul’s updates on YSL 2012

in the comments section of blog

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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March 2, 2012

A New Tax

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

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The Financial Sales Tax
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Yankee Bob
is Back
His editorial below
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Marx could never have imagined that the Banksta Vampire  Squids would turn debt into a commodity and do it so well that they could ignore traditional  capital formation practices.
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Putting debt into  packages or bundles to sell the bundle as a package  commoditized debt. Brilliant but, while the Banks profit handsomely from it and should they lose their bet on it  since they are still too big too fail,the taxpayers will again have to bail them out again.
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The banks have no incentive to stop their gambling and revert to  the capitalist banking activities of the pre-deregulated era.
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So,why not a campaign for a Financial Sales Tax?
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Why do you have to pay a sales tax on nearly everything you buy, but the vampire squid financial sector  gets a break?
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No sales tax on buying stocks and bonds. No tax on IPO’s or buying insurance. No tax on buying a company. No tax on mergers. No tax on putting venture capital to work.
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Sarkozy has announced support for a 1% of 1% tax on financial transactions. Imagine this tax on all financial transactions, globally. Equities, bonds, insurance, commodity trades, mergers and acquisitions, IPOs,venture capital placements etc. Commodities and futures, currencies,  weapons sales.
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Everything the NYSX and NASDQ alone would bring in about 10 billion per trading day on average dollar amount traded per day of about 100 trillion  dollar equity value for both. But, that’s just 2 markets.
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Think of all the new tools the vampire squids have like, CDOs, and the entire $600 trillion unregulated derivatives market.
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NO taxes on $600 trillion
of over leveraged bets ????

I have no idea how to calculate that entire capital aggregate on a yearly basis, but I’m sure it generate  mind blowing amounts of government revenues.
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How to sell this to the world
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If we adopt this  just 1% of 1% sales tax on all financial trades and deals, then we can eliminate the IRS because we won’t need personal or corporate income taxes at all. Then the fight would be totally over what to spend the money on but we would not need to pay taxes and have a complex incomprehensible tax code.
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The financial sector will fight but how can anybody seriously object to a 1% of 1% financial tax globally especially if everything  in gov. gets funded and their would be no personal or corporate income taxes. If I am wrong about needing just  1% of 1% to work this  then maybe it takes a full 1% or maybe a little more but it would eliminate the whole Tax dance world wide and maybe sales tax too.
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It will never happen, the vampire squid is too strong
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But I think it sure would make sense. Citizens, your tax load completely gone. Corporations, your tax load gone.

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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Paul’s Corner

The Dow, Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 are hitting new highs every day,  but don’t let those numbers fool you. Many stocks are pulling back, and the small caps are struggling. If you care to play, please keep an eye on the exit sign.

One of the proprietary HGSI chart indicators I rely on is called the Bongo Indicator. Dave Stecker wrote a good blog last evening and he gives a great explanation and example of the Bongo Indicator.

Dave Stecklers Blog LINK

Your Stock List chart review, March 1 close. In the most part, we have a pretty good looking group of stocks. You folks have made some nice suggestions.

AKRX – Trending nicely up the 17, reports Mar 6

BKI – Bounced off the 50 yesterday with  a nice 3.31% gain and a Kahuna all indicators are now green

CATM – Bounced off the 50 with a 6.28% gain and a large Kahuna, all indicators green

CMG – continues it march to the stars, quite an impressive chart

DLTR – 2.25% gain yesterday, bounced off the 17 with a Kahuna

ENB – Sitting on the 17, looks to be pulling back with the oils.

FAST – perfect chart, buy any small pull back

FTK – Not a pretty chart most indicators re

IBM – above the 17, all indicators green

KLAC – below the 50 along with most of the semis. Buyable when it crosses up through the 50

KOG – sitting on the 17, pulled back on it’s earnings release along with the oils

LEN  – above the 17 the home builders are basing

MA – extended

MNST – good chart, extended

RYL – pulled back with the home builders, sitting on the 50

SIMO – has been placed into the dumpster, needs time to settle down, watch, don’t trade

SWI – above the 17 and tradeable.

TSCO – good chart, above the 17, buy any small pull back.

I am sure you will understand comments for charts are for education only! You are a fool to buy or sell a stock based on my comments!   Personally I rely on my cat for stock picks.


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Liquidity – Printing Money

Keeping Europe From Collapse &

Moving Stocks Higher

Investors411 has maintained a Bullish outlook for many months now while others have skittishly jumped in and out of stocks.

Why?

We are in period of massive liquidity dumps under different names than Quantitative Easing.  Our Fed started its $400 billion Operation Twist in the fall. But this time  its our Fed’s biggest ally the ECB that pushing truckloads of $$$ into European Banks the same way our Fed does.

How much money?

$1.33 trillion

  • It’s a globalized world and what happens in Europe impact the USA.
  • Europe has too big to fail Countries like Italy and Spain.
  • What happens there matters far more than what happens in much smaller, but equally troubled Portugal Greece and Ireland
  • The old bottom line is what’s happening to the bond rates in Spain and even larger Italy.
  • So each morning there is this picture of a canary in a coal mine and you get an idea if globalized finances have stabilized

  • Italian 10 year bond yield almost flat today at to 4.95% (7:00 AM EST)
  • See for yourself the chart linked above.
  • WOW! – look at the massive drop in bond prices from above the 7.00% danger zone (where debt is considered “unsustainable”) in early January  to below 5% now
  • From YesterdayWith the Italian bond rate below 5% This canary is now both singing Ode to Joy and dancing

Bottom Line – Therefore one of the major factors driving our stock market (liquidity) in a globalized economy can be measured by the Italian bond rate. We are in the same kind of low volume manipulated market, that we were under quantitative easing -

    This is one big reason why Investors411 maintains

    the Long Term Outlook listed below

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    Longer Term Outlook

    3 months+

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    Still

    CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

    CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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    March 1, 2012

    Swimming with Sharks

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,


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    STOCKS

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    Swimming With Sharks

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    There is a global economic war going on between debtors and debt holders. At the center of this is a too big to fail casino financial system and in debtor nations – central banks who are trying to manipulate their debt away.

    The global stock, currency, commodity and other markets are all part of this global economic war.

    There are giant sharks out there. The biggest, baddest, great white is our Central Bank – Ben Bernanke and company.

    You can love/hate our Fed/Central bank, but as a trader or investor the most important thing is to realize the Fed’s existence and its sucessful manipulations of stocks or its current domination of the ocean.

    If the below explanation makes your eyes glaze over because it too technical, skip to

    Bottom Line in Red.


    • Yesterday there was a massive losses in gold (5%) and silver (7%) This was a coordinated smack down by the Fed and its many allies.
    • Investors411 has stopped recommending gold or silver as an investment because the margin rates can be raised at any time by the large institutions that hold gold or silver. This decimates the price.
    • Our Fed wants the dollar to be king (something they can manipulate) not gold. Ron Paul folks are more than a bit more than upset over this and other Fed manipulations
    • The Chinese are upset over our Fed’s money dumps (Ouantitative Easing , Operation Twist, Maiden Lane, and other Fed programs) becuse they think this inflates their economy. – They’re right.
    • So on the surface Fed chair Bernanke makes some announcement backing away a bit from more money printing, but under the surface his allies stagged a huge bear raid on gold and silver. For more see last night’s Jesse’s American Cafe or this AM’s ETF Digest.
    • One Investors411 mantra has been - “Stocks/Bonds/Currencies/Commodities are being manipulated by central banks.”

    Bottom Line

    As a stock holder –

    The Fed has your back Jack


    The warning part in all of this is the $6.5 trillion in growing printed money by debtor Central Banks (USA and Europe) and a vampire financial system. See yesterday and past blogs for more


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    • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -34.08. 50 Day Moving Average at +21.45 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Close to oversold territory = NEUTRAL
    • For weeks now almost every technical analyst  has called for a correction. If you read the MO like a chart it says that we are already correcting.
    • Manipulated markets, especially in the short term, can trump technical analysis. The low volume rallies of the last few years are proof of this.

    • Italian 10 year bond yield fell again to 4.99% (8:00 AM EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.
    • With the Italian bond rate below 5% This canary is now both singing Ode to Joy and dancing

    We are getting a very bullish signal out of Europe this AM. The ECB, our Fed’s biggest ally, has successfully manipulated the yield on the Italian bond below 5%.

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    Longer Term Outlook

    3 months+

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    Still

    CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

    CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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    February 27, 2012

    Greed

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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    GREED

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    The Vampire Bankstas

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    In Vegas you need to have actual money to gamble – your own money – You win lose or draw.

    What Banksta greed has done since  deregulation  was…

    • take YOUR money, and gamble with it
    • with NO requirement or significant risk to their money
    • and over leverage themselves on opaque derivative/credit default swaps markets

    You’ve seen the consequences and now its time for…


    The Bankstas Cover Up

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    Back before banks were deregulated, a special group of banks that met our Central Bank’s requirements were given special legal privileges and access to taxpayer money.

    They could borrow money from the Fed for almost nothing and then lend it right back to the Fed at a higher interest rate – say 3%.

    This actually helped money flow through the system.

    But after the 2008 meltdown and the banks got soooooooo over leveraged they needed truck loads of money to cover old losses and new (think European debt) So Central banks printed and printed and printed money and loaned it out to their member banks.

    How much money was printed for Bankstas?

    The Fed (our central bank) balance sheet on 2/22 stood at $2,917,435,000,000 &

    the ECB (Europes Central Bank) balance sheet stood at $3,550,000,000,000 on 1/1/12

    $6,500,000,000,000

    to keep their too big to fail

    unregulated Casino open

    Tomorrow – Solutions.

    Much of this 6 part series was inspired by Dylan Ratigan’s book Greedy Bastards.

    Link to Chart/Timeline of Banksta Takeover

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    STOCKS

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    Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

    We’re still in the CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH sweet spot, but there are dark clouds on the horizon.


    • Sweet Spot Mantra - “INVESTORS411 has not changed its long term outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”
    • Therefore - “Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back”

    The Dark Clouds/Oil Prices


    This is now one obvious call that Investors411 first warned about on 1/6/12 and 1/17/12

    Suggested ETFs for oil – USO (1 x oil prices) & UCO (2 x oil prices)

    If you bought UCO on Jan. 17th you are now up

    +20%

    The primary fear behind this rise in oil prices is the threat of war between Israel and Iran.

    Intrade, now puts the possibility of an overt air strike against by US or Iran by Dec 2012 at 42.5%.

    • This is political season and fear mongering is what the far right does best.
    • The current PM of Israel is extremely right wing and visits USA on March 5th.
    • Yes this is exactly what happened in Iraq.

    Obama – on oil prices

    Oil prices have gone up 9 days in a row and 12 of the last 13 days. By most all accounts overbought territory.

    However, if you have lots of long positions, you should still think about some protection or taking some profits.

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    • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -6.88. 50 Day Moving Average at +20.20 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Lots of wiggle room for bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

    • The European canary in a coal mine is chirping. But focus is going to be drawn more on Israel/Iran because of the Israel PM visit and politics.
    • Italian 10 year bond yield at 5.45% (8:30 EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.

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    Paul’s Corner

    SIMO is being dropped from Your Stock List due to chart action.  The Semi Group has been doing well but SIMO broke down and hasn’t been following the group. It’s a maker of flash drives and will be watched for possible adding back to the list.

    SWI is being moved from the Watchers section up to the Traders section.  SolarWinds, Inc. designs, develops, markets, sells, and supports enterprise information technology (IT) infrastructure management software to IT professionals. SWI and old member of a previous list is showing good chart action and may give us a good run.

    Kudos to Ian Woodward!

    You have heard me speak often about the HGS Investors group and Ian Woodward in particular. Ian is an inspiration to all that are lucky enough to come into contact with him. John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger bands concept, had some kind words for Ian when he was interviewed in the upcoming March issue of “Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities”. Here is what Bollinger says in part:

    “A little more than two years ago, I had the pleasure of spending time with Ian Woodward, who has been doing some interesting things with Bollinger Bands.  It was an inspiring time for me.”

    “Ian Woodward is an amazing guy….A couple of years back, a mutual friend arranged for Ian to drop by and show me the work he was doing, and I was very impressed.  Here was a man nearly XXX years old (true age redacted!!!) with more ideas and energy than most people half his age.  He has taken input from William O’Neil, Richard Arms and me and crafted an approach to investing that seeks to identify and participate in high-growth stocks.  He gives three day seminars twice a year that are jam-packed with interesting ideas.   I even had one of the guys who works for me attend.  I think that in the fullness of time he’ll be known as one of the great analysts.”

    Ian’s next work shop is in a month if you are serious about investing you should attend!

    http://www.highgrowthstock.com/Seminars/seminars.htm

    European Markets are down, our futures are down, have we seen the top? Be careful!

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    Longer Term Outlook

    3 months+

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    Still

    CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

    CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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    December 23, 2011

    Ron Paul/Michael Moore

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

    From Investors411


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    Michael Moore is A Whimp

    So is the Left in the USA



    Thumbnail


    Why? They didn’t produce

    This Video Ron Paul did.

    Ron Paul also recognizes its the shadow financials that are crushing the USA. His solution – return to a gold standard and eliminate the Fed would solve the problem, but create a world wide depression.

    Instead we need a Teddy Roosevelt to reestablish our rules, regulators, break up too big to fail banks & a government that does not go to war and cut taxes.

    Right now we are playing financial football without most of the rules and far less referees. Pure Free Market Capitalism is playing the same financial  football game without any rules or referees.


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    STOCKS

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    Neuschwanstein Castle – Germany

    The Bulls are Back – Yesterday marked the second technical confirmation of  Torrid Tuesday US equities held onto or added to their gains.

    The Prime catalyst mentioned yesterday was the European Central Bank giving $647 billion in low interest loans to over 532 banks.

    As Popeye points out in the Comments section


    Banks get Bailed Out

    We get Sold Out


    To keep the crony under regulated opaque crony capitalist system alive, European Banks are getting bailed out. They are the ones who made most of  the bad loans (bought the bonds) to  a handful of troubled European countries.  These financials made the loans because they could repackage them into “financial weapons of mass destruction” – credit default swaps.

    The people of Europe get the higher taxes, job loses and cuts in government programs.


    Sound familiar?


    There are two solutions to this problem – Or its going to keep happening again and again.

    • Ron Paul’s – Blowup the Fed and go on the gold standard
    • Create real regulation, enoough real regulators and eliminate too big to fail shadow financials & opaque markets.

    Repeat  - Bottom Line - This is a manipulated market. The ECB in what may just be the first of many loans has made an impact. Bulls Rule

    Overnight Data From Europe


    Germany’s DAX

    Gapped up at open, lost @1/2 and fell to +0.38 at –  at 6:40 AM EST

    Other major European Indexes doing better.

    DAX at  +0.20% at 8:45 EST

    Italian 10 year bond

    Opened at 6.96% - 2:30 AM EST

    Fell to 6.90% at 6:45 AM EST

    Italian bond at 6.94% at 8:45 AM EST

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    Paul’s Corner

    One of the things I love about the HGSI software is the various searches I look at nightly occasionally spit out stocks I have never heard of and may do that for several days in a row. BKI has been appearing repeatedly for days now.

    BKI Buckeye Technologies Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of cellulose-based specialty products. It operates in two segments, Specialty Fibers and Nonwoven Materials. The Specialty Fibers segment offers chemical cellulose, customized fibers, and fluff pulp derived from wood and cotton cellulose materials using wetlaid technology. The Nonwovens Materials segment provides airlaid nonwoven materials derived from wood pulps, synthetic fibers, and other materials using airlaid technology. The company?s products are used in various applications, such as disposable diapers, personal hygiene products, engine air and oil filters, food casings, rayon filament, acetate plastics, thickeners, and papers. Buckeye Technologies Inc. markets and sells its products directly through its sales force, as well as through sales agents primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and South America. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

    Ok big deal, a pulp mill? Interesting stuff made from wood scrap I’d burn for heat in the winter. But in an investment world of Smart Phones, flash drives, AAPL, ZNGA, why the decent chart and recent chart acceleration?

    The following article surfaced yesterday and might explain the move. LINK

    BKI broke out nicely yesterday from a nice 8 week base. Some of the move was probably generated from this article. Although it is somewhat thinly traded at 400,000 shrs a day, all of my favorite HGSI chart indicators are green. Even with yesterday’s pop, BKI is not over extended at the moment. If one is to trade this stock it might be beneficial to watch chart action for a few days and one shouldn’t typically trade at the open, the morning after a decent pop like it had the day before.

    Several other stocks in the pulp wood group are looking good too. For your evaluation here are the other stocks within this group.

    BKI

    MERC

    FBR

    CLW

    IP

    WPP

    INDEX

    MWV

    NP

    UFS

    SPP

    GLT

    ABH

    VRS

    KS

    SWM

    ONP

    Note, stocks are listed in an HGSI Top Down Analysis sort from 12/22. This sort can and does change every day. The chart and the fundies should be one’s guide to stock selection.

    My good friend Ian Woodward posted an excellent late night blog last evening and gave some good thought as to the current market and what to look for if this Santa Claus rally is to continue. Be sure to read it!

    LINK

    It’s 7 AM as I write this morning; ABC Good Morning America just came on and at the open they featured soldiers coming home from Iraq. It sure is nice this horror story is “some what” over.

    Merry Christmas All!

    Disclaimer, all comments are for education only and are not meant as stock buy or sell recommendations.

    ********************

    .

    Reading The Tea Leaves

    .

    Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose to +34.86 . 50DMA at +5.88 = NEUTRAL/bearish

    We’re on the cusp of moderately overbought, but no where near clear reversal territory.

    See past Investors411 for all the other bullish factors influencing the market this week.

    __________

    The fact that the ECB is making very low interest rates yo 500+ European banks takes some heat off of Europe and mitigates the Italian Problem. If Italy goes into “controlled bankruptcy” it’s impact on European banks will be less devastating.

    __________

    The 7.00% rate on the Italian 10 year is still significant, but less so after the ECB intervention. The 6.94% proximity to 7.00% is the only thing holding back another major rally today.

    __________

    For more information on trading strategies see STRATEGY Section of blog.

    .

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    .

    Longer Term Outlook

    3 months+

    .

    The Bulls are back (see above)

    Upgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

    We have been on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for almost a month.  So its subject to change. Both Neutral and Cautiously Bullish are favorable for longer term investments. Obviously one is more favorable than the other.


    CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

    .

    Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

    Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

    CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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