Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 19, 2012

We’re Back

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Because of your emails

Investors411 is back.

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However, instead of a daily basis

411 will  published two times a month

The focus will be the same

Stocks/economics/politics

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The comments section,

as always remains open

on a daily basis

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For Your Patience

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As many of you know this editor

and many of you spent much

of the last three months

working for the election of

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Rachel Maddow on

The results

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STOCKS

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PAUL’S CORNER

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I had the great pleasure of attending Ian Woodward’s HGSI Workshop this past October in Palos Verdes California. Lots of great review and always some new material that would as Ian suggests “knock your socks off!” and it did! Ian shares some of the finest market knowledge you can find. Ian produces a great blog and it will keep you on the right side of the market.

IAN’S BLOG

Ron Brown presented some great new searches for finding strong stocks. Ron suggests following stocks with strong consistent accumulation and he gave us the software to find the winners. Ron also gave a great presentation on trading options.  He showed us how to find proper stocks to trade options using the HGSI software. Options are new to me and the information Ron gave will be a great lesson.

Gil Morales, a long time analyst that worked for William O’Neil of Investor’s Business Daily, gave us an excellent presentation on shorting stocks. We came home with Gil’s presentation showing proper chart formations for shorting.

Dr. Jeffrey Scott, a longtime HGSI user, gave a good lesson on creating your own index of stocks to follow that will show when the market is breaking down. As a group we selected 24 strong stocks with great chart patterns. These sorts of stocks usually are fat with profits and will be the first to cash in with a collapsing market. Here is a chart of the index and it shows a break down with the market, but bounced nicely Friday. The leaders are usually the first to bounce up when the market turns up, we’ll keep an eye on this

Chart.


The following chart of Nasdaq Composite clearly shows the warning signs as we headed into this correction. A look at the chart with moving averages is all you need!

Chart

The current MO for the NYSE is -53.92, past history shows we usually bounce from this point, but there is a lot more to the down side that the MO can go. It’s probably too soon to start nibbling.

Watch the comments section if the market turns up I will start posting a


“stocks to watch list”.

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Even when Barr takes a break from posting, remember we can always post comments and questions to the latest blog post, so don’t go away mad………

Paul

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Obviously much of 411′s data  (see links at heading on top) is out of date.

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Over the Thanksgiving holiday

I’ll try to update

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There are many significant problems for stocks

including the fiscal cliff, tax selling, Europe, wars, and more

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But , as Paul points out,

our main tool

reached oversold/buy territory

last Thursday and is now

sitting just above oversold levels

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So I’m thinking about nibbling on stocks

rather than selling

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But, I sure understand being hesitant.

The main danger to bulls is unpredictable

fiscal cliff and Mideast war

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How to use McClellan Oscillator

here

(Scroll down)

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A Trade

Those of you who know how, my best advice is a put/call combination trade whose options expires in January/February or beyond. This is based on the belief that US markets will move dramatically as fiscal cliff deadline looms. (42 days) Also if there is a solution stocks will move dramatically.

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___________________

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Long Term Outlook

(3+months)

NEUTRAL.



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November 3, 2010

Elections & Economics & You

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Newspaper Front Pages Election

Photo from Huffington Post

Elections, Economics & YOUR Stocks

Elections

What polls predicted happened, with a few surprises. Harry Reid won.  Dems did better than expected in Senate and Reps. did better than expected in House.

Personally, great sadness over heroic Russ Feingold’s loss – He was the NOT in any way owned by the PUKE Green Party. (see yesterday’s Investors411.) The PUKE Green/Shadow Institutions won hands down. I’d trade Feingold for Reid or just about every other senator out there.

  • Gridlock – The House will come up with proposals for cutting. Each cut has a specific constituency. That’s a negative for a congress person that has to be specific about cuts. The Tea Party now has to get specific.
  • Obama does have a bipartisan commission on cuts and taxes that’s going public in Jan (I think). This could make a difference and something Obama would/might follow.

Economics

The US economy is in shambles – if you consider negative GDP growth shambles and it doesn’t look like a recovery any time soon. Economists are going to be all over the map on this so I’m using a relative moderate Mark Zandi from Moodey’s Analytic (see yesterday’s Investors411, Zandi – $500 billion in QE = 250,000 jobs and o.3% of GDP).

The +2%GDP growth last quarter has to factor in a lot of stimulus that the far right hates.

  • If you add the $1.7 trillion from QE 1 it equals about +1% of GDP (using Zandi’s math – see above)
  • The non partisan CBO says the Obama stimulus added about +1.7 to +4.5 real GDP growth in the second quarter. Let’s divide the total in 1/2 = 3.1% GDP growth was due to Obama stimulus.
  • 1% from QE1 + 3.1 from Obama Stimulus = +4.1% of USA GDP was enhanced by Obama & the Fed. That’s also a whole lot of jobs.
  • I’m not gong to add another factor – The UNaudited Fed makes other 0% loans to who knows how many shadow banks. But this also juices GDP.
  • Therefore, real GDP 2% total – 4.1% enhanced from Fed & Obama= -2.1% GDP for the USA last quarter without the FED & Obama (Remember, I’m playing with ballpark numbers, but if you add in the unaudited Fed loans I’ll bet our situation is  far worse.)

The Vampire Squids at Goldman Sachs think we need $4 trillion more in quantitative easing. That’s how bad GS thinks the economy is.

Elections plus Economics.

Rodney Dangerfield/BarakObama gets no respect for keeping us afloat but its the future thats more important. Here’s the problem. Without stimulus we have at least a -2% probably -3% GDP growth. This kind of negative growth would hemorrhage jobs.

The Republicans who are taking over, especially the more radical Tea Party radicals hate every form of stimulus from QE 1 to the Obama Stimulus. They are going to scream bloody murder and want to cut.

  • The Obama stimulus is almost all over so all we have now to foster growth is QE 2.
  • QE2 may start out small,but it is going to have to be massive to fix the US economically.
  • Obama & congress did pass a small business jobs bill a month ago that will help.

Stocks

Unstimulated GDP growth is negative, Obama stimulus about over, The US consumer is saving more, the foreclosure mess is far from over and globalization is sending jobs overseas (Big thanks to Robert H who discovered INTC has just opened a billion dollar factory in Vietnam – see comments section of blog)

For the economy - We’re in a hole that should get deeper and deeper. Now only quantitative easing (QE2) is there to help.

Prediction – GDP growth depends on how large QE 2 turns out to be. Think +0.6% GDP  for every trillion of QE.  Getting to a 4/5% GDP growth to bring down unemploynent seem mighty hard.

For stocks - We’re going to need a lot of quantitative easing to keep the USA’s economic  head above water. That means a lower dollar and stocks moving higher despite a rotten economic picture nationally = bullish for stocks



KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.58% flat
NASDQ +1.14% down
S&P +0.78% up
Russell 2000 +2.05% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Dollar took a significant hit, so stocks rallied yesterday. The dollar is dangerously close to its support level. If that falls, and the chances of that happening are growing, the stock rally should have legs.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell a significant -0.74% yesterday. Dollar currently moving within a range (see below). Now close to breaking down through support levels of consolidation range. Another fall like yesterday’s and support breaks. Trend for stocks = Neutral/Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets, exporting countries]Fell a -1.81% yesterday. BDI now consolidating after bull run that began in June. The BDI has been overshadowed by the dollar moves. @another 4% drop to support level and change to bearish. Longer term Pattern now= Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Basically flat closed at +6.37% yesterday. Six week trend (see chart) is starting looking bearish but location still = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Again Mantra for last two weeks -Any move in UUP (tracking ETF for dollar) above 22.7 resistance is trouble for stocks. Any move below 22.18 support level is good for stocks. A breakout of either the support or resistance level will tell you who wins the dollar war.” UUP closed at 22.25 and fell -0.17% Another fall like this a strong support level for the dollar breaks.

Bottom Line = From yesterday -”gives bulls slight advantage”  That advantage for dollar bears and therefore stock bulls became a whole lot stronger with falling dollar nearing support. Looks like the betting before of Fed’s QE2 announcement today is for a falling dollar.

All eyes on Fed and how big QE2 is going to be. What the Fed says and does about QE 2 Today will probably set the course for stocks and settle the dollar war.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • SSO (2x what S&P does).

Again the Mantra for the last week - “Not making any specific move until dollar breaks out of its range. I would look at a breakout higher for the dollar, and a corresponding fall in stocks and the MO to oversold as a buying opportunity for long term investors. “Looks like next Wednesday Fed meeting is the big event.”

I’m back to buy the dip even though the MO is near zero –

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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October 25, 2010

Elections

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

An Election Wordle (Word Cloud) from Newswag

Elections

(Part 1)

Tuesday November 2nd is election day in the USA.

Obviously much has changed since the 2008 elections that impact the fabric of our Democracy.

The 5 to 4 Decision by the Supreme Court has overturned a century old restriction and given corporations and other outside entities (any wealthy individual can incorporate and influence elections) the power to give almost unlimited funds to influence an election.

Money is the mother’s milk of politics/elections and already the PAC’s that are dominated by hidden money, corporations, wealthy individuals, unions & groups have far outspent both political parties combined. You are limited and audited in the amount of money that you can contribute. In fact, organizations outside the USA can now buy propaganda to influence votes. Even companies that received your bailout tax dollars are now buying votes – List of companies and candidates they support

There is of course times when overwhelming money on one side can be beaten. What you need is a message and a reasonable amount of financing to get the message out. Here’s a message and a negative add that works, by a candidate ahead in the polls. His opponent Meg Whitman has spent a record in campaign spending for a Senate seat yet Jerry Brown is ahead because of his message and adds like THIS When you go negative use humor.

Complete fun is Hitler Finds out “governor Moonbeam” Jerry Brown is running for governor –  The Hitler series of videos is outrageously funny and thanks to :) D for sending them in.

The trend – The 2010 elections are part of a bigger trend that has endured throughout history. A minority of wealthy individuals centralize or accumulate power and working people eventually realize they are better off with a democracy that gives them and their families a better opportunity. Our trend in the USA  over decades has been toward a wealthy oligarchy. The lobbyists that control Washington are tightening their grip.

Ironically, much of the other 96% of the worlds populations are growing in a different direction. Look at Brazil right now with the lowest unemployment ever and a government that has spread the wealth to its working class. Working people are gaining power and money is flowing in a flourishing capitalist systems.

The pendulum of this trend swings back and forth.

(Tomorrow US Elections -Down and Dirty)

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.13% down
NASDQ +0.80% down
S&P +0.24% down
Russell 2000 +0.76% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

The dollar went nowhere in light volume (See UUP & USD below). So stocks went nowhere in light volume.

Good earning are getting sold into or the stock are only going up slightly. This suggests the rally may have run out of some steam in the middle of earnings season.

But all eyes are on the dollar.

If you’d like to know more about the dollar and its inverse relationship to stocks and commodities check here & here

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose an insignificant +0.06% Friday. Dollar currently moving sideways within a range (see below) Trend for stocks = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets, exporting countries] Rose a minor +0.26% Friday. BDI now consolidating after bull run that began in June. Longer term Pattern= Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Rose slightly to -1.14 yesterday. Lot of room to move both higher and lower. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

The Dollar War mentioned Friday continues, but both sides took a holiday on Friday. Best read is nothing happens till, the elections, the Fed Meeting, or some pronouncement about QE2 (QE2 = The Fed printing and dumping more $ into economy.

UUP the dollar tracking ETF continues to be the index to watch.

Any move in UUP above 22.7 resistance is trouble for stocks. Any move below 22.18 support level is good for stocks. A breakout of either the support or resistance level will tell you who wins the dollar war. UUP at 22.47

Longer term depends on which way the dollar breaks (breaks support of resistance)

Shorter term we could drift up in stocks as long as dollar remains flat.

Here’s a chart showing the inverse relationship between the S&P 500 and the US dollar

Black line is the S&P and candlestick chart the dollar

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • SSO (2x what S&P does)

Not making any specific move until dollar breaks out of its range. I would look at a breakout higher for the dollar, and a corresponding fall in stocks and the MO to oversold as a buying opportunity for long term investors.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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June 9, 2010

World’s Best Capitalist System.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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China

For well over a decade the big government, tightly managed, Chinese capitalist system has kicked ass.

Their GDP in past quarter was above 10% and its projected to stay near that lofty range.  It has obviously outperformed the casino/free market capitalism of the USA which has brought us a tech bubble and a financial/housing bubble. Both led to two major worldwide meltdowns. It has also outperformed the more socialist models in Europe, that adopted US shadow banking for their own.

China’s growing because money is flowing into a growing middle class while that same middle class is shrinking in  the USA.  In fact every democratic and capitalist economy from India to Brazil that is outperforming ours is growing their middle class. Perhaps China can manage to slowly cool down. Perhaps not. If the Chinese bubble bursts, so will economies around the world.

The problem here is this one party state that does not foster Democracy.

Elections

Primary Day in a dozen states across USA. Some results

  • Most under reported is Prop 14 passed in California – “will give every voter the same ballot in primary elections for most state and federal races, except the presidential contest. The two candidates with the most votes would advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.” - Interesting.
  • Blanche Lincoln won in AK. There was a progressive challenge that fell short. I love Lincoln’s derivative bill and hope it passes congress.
  • Harry Reid got who he wanted to win in NV – The Tea Party candidate that wants to store nuclear waste in Nevada. He had little chance against her opponent in polls.
  • For more see Huffington Post

Robert Kuttner

Scorecard on Financial Reform

This week/today we get to see what financial reform will look like when it is voted on. Many of what was necessary will be stripped. The Banking Showdown by Robert Kuttner is an excellent source on this.

Your Comments

Some Great threads going in comments section. See comments on right side of blog

  • Paul R educational insight and others on stocks. – continues
  • Jim J., John S. & Popeye on Israel – Looks like they settled on an International group should look into incident. Perhaps so, but Israel will never agree.
  • Yankee Bob and others on BP – Got caught in a BP on line nightmare

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.26% up
NASDQ -0.15% up
S&P 500 +1.10% up
Russell 2000 -0.13% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

US markets looked over the cliff, decided not to jump and backed away in increased, above average volume = Bullish

US Markets rallied into the close = Bullish

From Yesterday – “There is two interday lows that were lower this year – the lowest at 1040.78 (see chart) This is the line in the sand major support level for most technicians. Breaking this could open the DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER DANGER Floodgates. For right now it’s holding = Bullish

We went down to the line in the sand for the second time since it was established as the yearly low in February. It held. Technicians call this a triple bottom and get excited. Fundamentally this held because the dollar fell. That’s what to focus on. But the fact that it held = Bullish

Financials was one sector that led this rally (+2.09) Weak financial reform likely outcome in congress. Materials was the other sector (+2.27) = Bullish

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose yesterday to -28.47 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. We are a bit overbought, but basically = NEUTRAL
  • US Dollar –  The dollar fell -0.34% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. Massive breakout to new high is bullish for dollar and for bearish for US stocks. That big breakout Friday was confirmed by Monday’s +0.25% gain. The dollar fell yesterday so stocks rallied.

Reading the Tea Leaves . From yesterday-”Expect central banks to intervene and BUY the Euro to stop the growing panic….Would expect some sort of relief rally today after two days of significant price declines and strong support level in front of us. But watch out later in week.”

Strong volume behind yesterday’s rally  and a -28.47 on the MO (we are a bit oversold) indicates a rally is getting started and has some room to run.

Bottom LineThe Dollar Rules. This rally will hold as long as whichever (probably a combination of Swiss, German US, French, Chinese? etc.) keeps buying/propping up the Euro.  Short term trend = Bullish

However the long term trend is still dollar up and Euro down – For stocks = Bearish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekend.

Traders – Conventional wisdom says that stocks that held up best while others got toasted are the ones to invest in if markets rally – be it for a day, two a week. But sometimes those high beta stocks from YOUR Stock List that are down the most take a big initial first step. Those from YOUR Stock List still above their 50 day moving average and turned with the markets yesterday may be worth a trade today.

  • VCI
  • SNDK
  • SAM
  • BIDU

I’m perhaps too emotionally involved, but IMAX looks good and their seems to be a good lineup or 3D movies this summer.

Financials – No real reform = Bullish

  • XLF – Investors could nibble here.
  • UYG – (2X Financials)
  • FAS -(3X Financials)

Still holding VIC, ESRX & SDS (may take profits in SDS) – Today considering positions in FAS (short term) & UUP (longer term) The later mirrors the dollar and also may be good for Investors to nibble

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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June 10, 2009

Market Updates – Ballots over Bullets

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP? – Ballots over Bullets – Oprah, that’s right Oprah Winfrey – Healthcare vs. for profit illness care – Our Positions – The new Hedge is starting out with positive results – FXI, QLD, EWZ & IFN

Ballots Over Bullets

Tom Friedman has a Ballots Over Bullets editorial in today’s NYT. He echos what Investors411 has described as the results of Obama’s speech, and the relationship to the Lebanon elections. Like the economy, there are a few green shoots of hope in the Mid East. They may get crushed, but at least we’re not locked into the "you’re either with us or against us" mantra.

Oprah and HealthCare

Never thought you’d see Oprah Winfrey in Ivestors411. She is one hell of a business women. But Ophra also is setting a standard in health care. It may not be perfect, but what her show deals with is heath care and what we in the USA deal with is a for profit illness care .

Oprah promotes "wellness,  prevention, and alternative medicine" far more than our conservative, for profit medial establishment. Our mainstream medical establishment is addicted to drugs, surgery, and pills  like Cheney is addicted to bullets, hate and torture. There are alternatives that work.

Dr. Deepak Chopra , who I had the privilege of spending some time with decades ago, is now one of the loudest voices for change in the medical establishment. Take a look at his "Mainstream Medicine and the Oprah Factor"

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.02% down
NASDQ +0.96% up
S&P500 +0.35% down
Russell2000 +0.60% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

Remember Forecasting what markets will do is all about how potential investors feel about the  fundamental aspects of stocks and the economy. Technicals (looking at chart patterns) gives us some idea of where the traffic signals are. It all about predicting attitude.

NASDQ is again separated from the pack.  The distinction may look small, but over time is has and hopefully will continue (see our "hedge" position) to outperform.

Volume was below average. No confirmation of a price move.

Reading The Tea Leaves

  • Oil prices now over $70 a barrel - WTIC
  • The BDI (measures world trade) has fallen 5 days in a row
  • Interest rates of 30 year fixed mortgages have risen over 0.50% in last month.
  • Chrysler’s bankruptcy deal and possible GM’s could get bogged down in supreme court. = Way more unemployment and foreclosures

There is fundamental long term trouble brewing just under the surface. The above factors is they continue in the same direction combined could crush a budding economic recovery.

What’s moving this market is a falling dollar. Russia did/said something this AM to cause the dollar to fall further – So stocks and oil prices should move higher this AM.

Position s – (See positions section of blog for more)

  • The Hedge – Q LD went up +1.68% and SDS went down -0.54 %. This means our latest and second largest position made +1.24% yesterday.
  • FXI – China -1,25% yesterday.  #1 position has dramatically clobbered the benchmark SPX this year. This ETF is falling in decreased volume and a new buying opportunity is/may arise.
  • Looking to buy  into IFN (India) EWZ (Brazil) on dips.
  • Looking to buy back into QLD (a separate position from "the Hedge")

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTIN G !

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