Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 19, 2012

We’re Back

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Because of your emails

Investors411 is back.

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However, instead of a daily basis

411 will  published two times a month

The focus will be the same

Stocks/economics/politics

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The comments section,

as always remains open

on a daily basis

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For Your Patience

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As many of you know this editor

and many of you spent much

of the last three months

working for the election of

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Rachel Maddow on

The results

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STOCKS

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PAUL’S CORNER

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I had the great pleasure of attending Ian Woodward’s HGSI Workshop this past October in Palos Verdes California. Lots of great review and always some new material that would as Ian suggests “knock your socks off!” and it did! Ian shares some of the finest market knowledge you can find. Ian produces a great blog and it will keep you on the right side of the market.

IAN’S BLOG

Ron Brown presented some great new searches for finding strong stocks. Ron suggests following stocks with strong consistent accumulation and he gave us the software to find the winners. Ron also gave a great presentation on trading options.  He showed us how to find proper stocks to trade options using the HGSI software. Options are new to me and the information Ron gave will be a great lesson.

Gil Morales, a long time analyst that worked for William O’Neil of Investor’s Business Daily, gave us an excellent presentation on shorting stocks. We came home with Gil’s presentation showing proper chart formations for shorting.

Dr. Jeffrey Scott, a longtime HGSI user, gave a good lesson on creating your own index of stocks to follow that will show when the market is breaking down. As a group we selected 24 strong stocks with great chart patterns. These sorts of stocks usually are fat with profits and will be the first to cash in with a collapsing market. Here is a chart of the index and it shows a break down with the market, but bounced nicely Friday. The leaders are usually the first to bounce up when the market turns up, we’ll keep an eye on this

Chart.


The following chart of Nasdaq Composite clearly shows the warning signs as we headed into this correction. A look at the chart with moving averages is all you need!

Chart

The current MO for the NYSE is -53.92, past history shows we usually bounce from this point, but there is a lot more to the down side that the MO can go. It’s probably too soon to start nibbling.

Watch the comments section if the market turns up I will start posting a


“stocks to watch list”.

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Even when Barr takes a break from posting, remember we can always post comments and questions to the latest blog post, so don’t go away mad………

Paul

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Obviously much of 411′s data  (see links at heading on top) is out of date.

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Over the Thanksgiving holiday

I’ll try to update

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There are many significant problems for stocks

including the fiscal cliff, tax selling, Europe, wars, and more

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But , as Paul points out,

our main tool

reached oversold/buy territory

last Thursday and is now

sitting just above oversold levels

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So I’m thinking about nibbling on stocks

rather than selling

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But, I sure understand being hesitant.

The main danger to bulls is unpredictable

fiscal cliff and Mideast war

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How to use McClellan Oscillator

here

(Scroll down)

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A Trade

Those of you who know how, my best advice is a put/call combination trade whose options expires in January/February or beyond. This is based on the belief that US markets will move dramatically as fiscal cliff deadline looms. (42 days) Also if there is a solution stocks will move dramatically.

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Long Term Outlook

(3+months)

NEUTRAL.



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April 13, 2012

99% Spring

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

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There’s 1000+ different mettings across America this weekend. Primarily organizing over
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Democracy &
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Income Inequality
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Obviously, the 99% Spring is left of center groups and may not be your cup of tea. (pun intended)
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To learn more and find a gathering point
in your state/town this weekend
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Enter Zip code and distance from Home
in appropriate spaces for a meeting near you.
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(currently set for 5 miles from my house)
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Don’t know if Elizabeth Warren is associated with
99% Spring, but like reason 202 her quote is about
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What Kind of
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Democracy YOU Want
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Thanks to frequent commenters George, Popeye and CDB for requesting I post something on this.
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STOCKS

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China

and  more problems

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Due to Limited Time this AM

Refer to yesterday’s blog for Data Links.

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  • China – Many investors talked up China’s GDP numbers yesterday (see Paul’s comments). They came in at 8.1% which is a slight bit less than what was expected, but way under the wished for number.
  • At 8:00 AM EST Spanish and Italian bonds are down slightly (@-1.00%)

  • GOOG went nowhere on its earning report. JPM & WFC beat expectations (nothing outstanding) – LINK
  • These are all major fundamentals that range from neutral (JPM) to very negative (China and more important)

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Reading Tea Leaves

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Not good stock news this AM so

If we can hold onto most of yesterday’s gains

its bullish

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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A Less Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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February 10, 2012

Et Tu Barack

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Et Tu Barack

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Pac Man


This week Obama confirmed he’s part of the Oligarchy that is tearing American democracy apart and transferring trillions of dollars of wealth from the vast majority of Americans into a kleptocratic American aristocracy.

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Obama Endorsed

Super PACs This Weeks

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Some of the best editorial

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There are a few rays of  democracy/sunshine

left in America’s political system

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Elizabeth Warren (D) and Scott Brown (R) in Massachusetts have agreed NOT to allow Super PAC money in their campaigns.

Warren and Brown’s Pledge May Not Hold up, but

Lots  of us will keep up its fight for Democracy.

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STOCKS

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  • Market Fundamentals driving stocks have NOT changed in any dramatic way. Of course, they can in the future.
  • A “healthy” 2 to 5% technical correction seems like it could happen.  Paul pointed yesterday to AAPL  (overextended/climax selling) as a probable cause for a technical correction.
  • Right now I view this as a buying opportunity.
  • Still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Barr

Paul’s Corner


Hit the top?

I learned from my good friend Ian Woodward (HGSI) a long time ago to let the market tell you which way the market is going rather than  guessing. Each evening I take a quick look at the market to see if we have any signals as to which way the market is heading.  After the close yesterday, HGSI gave us the first update of the evening about 5:30 ET and within a minute or two I knew where the market went and the possible direction it is going. Here are a few of the notes I scribbled down on my note pad.

VIX up 2.6% today, Russell small caps off while Naz 100 up, Consumer Staples top of the list today, looks like flight to quality. MO on the S&P 1500 fell to near zero. No major damage to YSL. Stay away from SIMO! All HGSI Indicators for SIMO are red!

So it appears the money is heading for security. Pre market futures are down and the rest of the world has been trading off over night. The last few days the markets have struggled to finish positive and many high flying stocks closed off with profit takers emptying the till near the close. So will we trade down or up today? Um ask Barr I don’t know, but I will be ready to protect my profits. Buying new long positions at the time takes some real guts which I don’t have!

As I have mentioned several times, HGSI and EdgeRater are giving a great video class series on using the two products for superb market analysis.

Ian Woodward gave an excellent 45 minute presentation this week on how he analyzes which way the market is going by following %B and his new proprietary “Woody” indicator. This video is classic Ian and he gives you the whole basket of what to look for in the market and how. A long time market guru, one of the sharpest folks I know and a great teacher, here is the link to his video:

IAN WOODWARD VIDEO

This video class series is still going on and available for you to participate. While taking the classes you get free use of HGSI and EdgeRater software.  If you are serious about developing your investing skills, this is one class you need to take, and for crying out loud, IT’S FREE!

HGSI Course Register:

My favorite high demand stock search produced the following results for Thursday Feb. 09,

HIGH DEMAND  LINK

As always please make your own trading decisions. All comments above are based on chart action and if you think I can read the charts, I have a bridge I can get you a great deal on!


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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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December 8, 2011

Zach Walhs’ Family

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Zach Wahls


Why has this 19 year old scholar’s 3 minute video been seen by 15,540,308 million people?

Zach Wahls Speaks About Family

The Video

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Occupy Wall Street


occupy wall street cartoons

Note – Cartoon from outside USA

Some signs OWS’s Message about

Income Inequality is resonating


  • Obama now talks the talk.  Many question if he will walk the walk (see yesterday’s Investors411 & comment section)
  • NY governor with 65% approval rating, Andrew Cuomo, gets NY legislature to approve additional taxes for the wealthy while cutting them for middle class Americans - Story Link
  • It’s way early, but consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren has taken a lead in polling for the MA Senate race over Scott Brown, even though Carl Rove’s group is airing negative adds tying her to OWS.

2011-12-08-Blumenthal-MASenpolls.jpg

Compilation from Huffington Post



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STOCKS

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Reuters has produced an interactive chart of charts on the Eurozone Crisis. If you’re a trader/Investor, this is well worth your time.

LINK

Two most significant up coming events

  • Euro summit concludes on Friday – View from Voice of America
  • US Fed meets next week. –

Here’s a list of 130 stories raging from next weeks Fed meetings to the disputed “secret loans”

Strong correlation between Europe and US stock opening price

Germany’s DAX Down from open, but up +0.38% at 6:15 AM EST

DAX down - 0.07% at 8:22 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell slightly to +19.68. 50DMA at +11.31NEUTRAL

There’s lots of room for the market to move higher (or lower – but trend is up) despite last week’s big gains. We need to hit +60 on the MO before you start to worry about being overbought. For more on MO see Strategy section of blog.

The S&P 500′s 200 DMA is proving to be a strong resistance level for US equities.

See chart at right top of blog. We failed to significantly crack this level for 3 days. The longer we fail to crack this level significantly, the stronger it gets.

News from Europe is still a trump card.

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Paul’s Corner

Buy The Dip is a favorite line tossed out these days. More important is to buy correctly. We were looking at SPRD for YSL 7. It performed well during the past few months but it took a hit a week or so before YSL 7 was introduced.  SPRD was in a good dip position and at that time it was tempting to add it to Your Stock List.

Well, SPRD turned out to give a good lesson on institutional dumping and also an example of a good short.

Chart Link

The chart did show some topping action after a good run. Two sharp down days on 11/17 and 11/18 gave a warning. On 11/19 SPRD experienced a 13% drop and a drop this big after topping action can “usually” be assumed as dumping by institutions.

Often after a first dump the institutions will let a stock tick back up before second round of dumping. The next few days the chart ticked up and almost recovered, then on 12/5 another dump of 11%.  This is a classic chart of institution dumping and not a buy the dip opportunity. Don’t forget this chart!

When you see a pattern similar to this, it’s not a buy the dip opportunity. In fact it’s often an opportunity to short. On 12/06 SPRD opened at 24.03 and headed south all day. When it opened it sat still for a bit of time, an indication of no buyers and shortly after someone flushed the toilet and the shorts were in charge. Again, don’t forget this chart!

Oh, since we dropped SPRD we needed to replace it, FTK was chosen at the last minute. Good choice, eh?

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Current Positions

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Strategy – Buy the Dip of trending sector/stock

Paul’s tutorial on Buying the Dip


Your Stock List #7 [YSL #7] is out and Paul has been updating it in the comment section of the blog. – Some excellent choices here.

SSO(ETF that is @ 2X long the S&P 500) Bought, on dip at 46.20

USO - (Oil ETF and UCO 2x oil) under consideration on dips.

GLD – Simply the best long term investment over years. May not outperform a trending S&P right now, but it should be part of any long term portfolio.

All of Your Stock List #7 with links to charts may now be found  in the Positions Section of blog.

(Scroll down)



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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

Fundamentals behind the LTO

The Fed has seemingly committed to do whatever it takes to hold things together. From US equities to the European Union. Over the last few years our Fed has been a successful major manipulator of US equities -higher. Working with allies it is attempting to do the same on a global scale.

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CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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December 7, 2011

Osawatomie

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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Warren, Roosevelt and

Obama

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Osawatomie Kansas is where Republican President Teddy Roosevelt made his big speech on income inequality – A New Nationalism –  101 years ago. Elizabeth Warren has echoed those words in a 2 minute video - The Debt Crisis and Fair Taxation.


Yesterday at Osawatomie Obama finally joined the chorus.


You can see the “best speech of his presidency” video and text at The New Civil Rights Movement. NYT lead editorial HERE.  Huffingtpost HERE From the later some observations and quotes -

Obama presented himself as the one fighting for shared sacrifice and success against those who would gut government and let people fend for themselves. He did so knowing the nation is riven over the question of whether economic opportunity for all is evaporating -

“Throughout the country, it’s sparked protests and political movements, from the tea party to the people who’ve been occupying the streets of New York and other cities,” Obama said.

“This is the defining issue of our time,” he said in echoing President Theodore Roosevelt’s famous speech here in 1910.

“This is a make-​or-​break moment for the middle class and all those who are fighting to get into the middle class,” Obama said. “At stake is whether this will be a country where working people can earn enough to raise a family, build a modest savings, own a home and secure their retirement.”

Obama drew a sharp contrast between his “New Nationalism” and Mitt Romney & Republicans who believe “business unfettered will easily bring back Jobs and prosperity.”(NYT quote)


Rick Scott

People in Florida have learned their lesson of what happens when you put a right wing, unfettered, free market, businessman in the Governors office. In just three short years his poll numbers have dropped to the lowest in Florida history 26%.

It took him long enough but

Obama is finally talking the talk

Can he walk the walk?




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STOCKS

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The Front page of the NYT has an image of German chancellor Andrea Merkel with the following quote –

[Merkel]appears to have adopted a strategy aimed at remaking the euro zone in her country’s likeness.”

There is a major summit going on in Europe that ends on Friday. US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is there. – Like all the other summits there will probably be no clean resolution to the Euro debt crisis, but perhaps some small steps forward.

Bernanke vs. Bloomberg News – Two weeks ago (again thanks to Robert H for the heads upon this) Investors411 featured Bloomberg news articles on “secret debt.” The Fed chair has challenged them and Bloomberg News has  a coherent replied.

LINK

The CNBC Market cheerleaders are featuring the headline – Portugal Yield Dips; Strong Demand in German Auction” Willing to bet that our Fed is directly or indirectly responsible for bond purchases.

Strong correlation between Europe and US stock opening price

Germany’s DAX Down from open, but up +0.43% at 6:20 AM EST

DAX down - 1.40% at 8:45 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to +2o.81. 50DMA at +11.37NEUTRAL

There’s lots of room for the market to move higher despite last week’s big gains. We need to hit +60 on the MO before you start to worry about being overbought. For more on MO see Strategy section of blog

Interday trading pattern has been a higher open that gets sold into over last few days. It’s bearish. The benchmark S&P 500 is directly below strong resisistance (the 200 DMA) and stocks have failed to crack this level – again short term bearish sign.

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Current Positions

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YSL #7 is out and Paul has been updating it in the comment section of the blog. – Some excellent choices here.

SSO – (ETF that is @ 2X long the S&P 500) Bought, on dip at 46.20

USO – (Oil ETF and UCO 2x oil) under consideration on dips.

NB - All of Your Stock List #7 with links to charts is now on the Positions Section of blog. (Scroll down)


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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

The Fed has seemingly committed to do whatever it takes to hold things together. From US equities to the European Union.

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CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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September 26, 2011

The Good Fight

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

The Good Fight

Elizabeth Warren’s 2 minute viral video that has exploded across Massachusetts (From USA Today)

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How YOU Pay More Than a Billionaire

Warren Buffett said it best - “His secretary has a higher net tax rate than he does.”

The primary cause for this is the uber weatlhy from trust fund babies to hedge fund managers pay only 15% on their capital gains tax.  If you work you pay 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, or 35%

All uber wealthy individuals has to do is invest in HFT hedge funds (60+ % of all US stock investing – that make $$$ of market trading imbalances) or invest  in the unregulated opaque $600 trillion Credit Default Swaps (Financial WMD’s – Warren Buffett) market. Are YOU wealthy enough to invest in HFT’s or CDS’s?

The uber wealthy through institutions can sit back and take massive gains (privatized gains) Then pay 15% on those gains.

The sucker American taxpayer and ordinary investor who is working his/her butt off not only pays more taxes, but has to bail out the too big to fail shadow institutions. (socialize risk)

Wake Up People

You’re Being Played for a Sucker



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Stocks

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.35% down
NASDQ +1.12% down
S&P 500 +0.61% down
Russell 2000 +1.40%

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Market Analysis

Focus on TechnicalsFundamentalsHFT’s

  • Last weeks meltdown came to a halt at support levels for the major indexes. Friday started a typical HFT driven, low volume, oversold bounce.
  • Trend Kicking the can down the road on Greece is mana from heaven for HFT who can use every news items to execute short squeezes, pump and dumps or catching institutional traders with losing long positions.

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

  • The PCR fell  to 1.15 (Roughly - above 1.25 is getting Bearish and below 0.80 is getting Bullish. 1.00 = same amount of puts and calls. Over last two years the highest for PCR is @1.50 and lowest @0.60 - anything approach these levels shows change likely For more information on PCR LINK) Two days just above 1.25 was followed by yesterday’s 1.15 = Bearish/Neutral

The McClellan Oscillator

  • (MO) fell  to -42.55 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold & +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought) Somewhat Oversold. = Bullish/Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Short Term Outlook

days, week+

  • We have again bounced off support levels with a slight HFT dominated low volume  rally Friday. Momentum is with bulls.
  • Path of least resistance for HFT dominated US markets is higher.

Longer Term Outlook

month, months

  • Repeat Same old mantraMay 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May. For the Fed to act significantly – inject more liquidity - I’m afraid we need to see stocks do worse for that to happen.
  • Energy , Financials and Copper (proxy for global growth) all made significant new lows ThursdayLong Term Bearish.
  • US Dollar – Investors411 has used the dollar many times before tp forecast market direction. It’s worth noting an upside breakout Chart. That’s bearish for stocks and gold. The contrarian side of this is a strong dollar, low interest rates/inflation coupled with a weak stock market give the Fed a reason to launch another liquidity move (QE #3) This would drive stocks higher.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

NLY – Will buy back into  this high dividend stock on Dip.

Gold - Major move to downside. If the Fed comes out with QE #3 gold should instantly regain its shine. For now its fallen too far too fast to buy. Traders who can handle the risk – a third gap down at open and another  significant fall should bring us to longer term support levels. GLD is at very oversold levels. Perhaps a trade, but not an investment.

Strong dollar is significant factor in gold’s meltdown.

Traders - We still have a risk on trading opportunity. Our two forecasting tools are slightly bullish, but not yet at the more extreme levels where its even safer to buy. Rising dollar is counter weight to an extended rally, but momentum with bulls.

Investors - Thursday’ lead story is the Long Term Outlook for the Fall.  If the Fed introduces more liquidity, or by some miracle without Fed help technicals show an upside breakout of the trading range we are in (S&P 500 at 1136 – Range 1120 to 1220) – Outlook remains CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH outlook remains.

You can find YSL #5 in Positions Section of blog.

No long term positions held at this time (See last Friday’s blog for more)

DisclaimerI buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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September 15, 2011

Heroes (2)

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

An Endorsement

“The stunning lack of accountability for the greed and misdeeds that brought America to its gravest financial crisis since the Great Depression.”Frank Rich - New Yorker magazine - “Obama’s Original Sin”


The single most important and vocal person in the white house over the last three years who fought for this accountability is Elizabeth Warren. Phenomenal editorial Warren vs. The Banks

Warren is the ONLY candidate out there that this web site endorses for political office.


Another Hero

Dylan Ratigan

  • 10 years financial reporter/editor Bloomberg LP
  • 5 years with #1 financial network
  • Creator and host of CNBC’s “Fast Money.”
  • Co host “Closing Bell.”

He left that high paying job to fight for what he believes in – accountability. His new show is on MSNBC (4:00 to 5:00 EST)  Here’s a LINK to an August 9th on air Meltdown over the Meltdown.  The emotion is real, but its what he says that matters.

You have to love the title of his upcoming book – “Greedy Bastards.” Radio Free Dylan often carries some outstanding editorials like this one “Why No Handcuffs?” Some major points Dylan often hammer’s home and Investors411 shares.

  • The $600 trillion swaps market is still an unregulated, hidden in shadows exchange. – It is the Credit Default Swaps that Warren Buffett termed financial WMD’s. The reason so many investment institutions were vulnerable/over leveraged in 2008
  • How to you build a viable economic system when the backbone financial systems are hidden in the shadows and too big to fail?
  • His four solutions to fixing the system LINK - Another LINK

[For Heroes Part 1 see November 10th Investors411]

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Do up 1 to 2% up
NASDQ
up
S&P 500
up
Russell 2000
-

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Market Analysis

Focus on TechnicalsFundamentalsHFT’s

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week/week+

  • There simply is no other explanation to yesterday massive swings than HFT were having a field day juicing and then sucking up profits from stocks. No fundamental news out there merited a 340 point Dow rally from the low, then a 140 point fall into the close.
  • Europe played kick the can down the road over Greece defaulting on its loans. The real story is can European banks, which are up to their necks in Credit Default Swaps on Greece and other PIIGS, stay solvent.
  • Trend - Kicking the can down the road is mana from heaven for HFT who can use every news items to execute short squeezes, pump and dumps or catching institutional traders with losing long positions

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

  • The PCR fell  to 1.05 (Roughly - above 1.25 is getting Bullish and below 0.80 is getting Bearish. 1.00 = same amount of puts and calls)(last two years the highest for PCR is @1.50 and lowest @0.60 - anything approach these levels shows change likely For more information on PCR LINK)  We built a lot of Put positions over the last 3 days but it has been steadily decreasing. The  1.05 close yesterday is Neutral, but the inventory/backlog of Puts makes the callBullish/Neutral.
  • Investors411 uses the PCR to measure the path of least resistance for HFT dominated stock market. HFT’s love leverage and if there are more puts then calls, there is simply a supply glut on one side that forces a move to the other. See above.

The McClellan Oscillator

  • (MO) rose to +28.59 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought) Just one point away from mildly overbought. But still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

HFT pushed stocks 140 points higher than they closed at. What happened? – The algorithms HFT’s use all clicked in and recognized a rapid overbought position. If we had ended the day 140 points higher our MO would have been near +50 (many other indexes that measure oversold/overbought would have shown the same) They pumped the market higher and then dumped into the close and took their nano second and multi second trade profits.

HFT’s are going to pull your chain on any event/rumor as long as they exist - Get used to it - HFT’s are here to stay.

Today, we have bullish/Neutral PCR, and an almost somewhat oversold MO = Neutral. So we’re NEUTRAL right now with just a touch of bullish mixed in.

Translation - US Stocks have no major bias higher or lower. Just a wee bit of the bull. This doesn’t mean HFT’s can not do a mega roller coaster on stocks, especially if there is meaningful fundamentals.

Longer Term Outlook

month, months

  • Repeat Same old mantra - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May. For the Fed to act significantly – inject more liquidity - I’m afraid we need to see stocks do worse for that to happen,

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Paul’s Corner

Fortes Fortuna Adjuvant - this can be translated as “fortune favors the strong.”

The title borrowed from Dave Steckler’s Blog last evening and we will look at the semis by using Relative Strength to determine the best semi.

Before we get into the semis here is a comment from Dave’s blog last evening which explained the jump in the market Wednesday:

The S&P 500 Index gained 1.35% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.60%.  The rally came on hopes for progress in resolving the Greek debt crisis.  Oil and precious metals prices fell and the U.S. dollar retreated from its recent gains. It’s always nice to see a 100+ point up day but keep in mind the Dow was up 280 points a half-hour before the close.

So while a few YSL 5 stocks had a great day, let’s not hold our breath too long hoping this is the start of the big long awaited rally.

Dave Stecklers Blog is always worth reading and his latest blog has  a great discussion on Relative Strength and how it’s used to research the market and in this issue he also looks at the semis.

Dave Stecklers Blog  LINK

As we found out several days ago, the semis are starting to draw attention. YSL 4 member SPRD appeared several times last week on the “Best of Woodard and Brown” screen on HGSI. The semi group index jumped to the top of the HGSI Industry Group sort on Monday Sept 12.

Industry Group Sort  LINK

There are 112 semis in the Semiconductor Industry Group which is too many to follow. I made up a user group of the top 10 stocks in the group,  the reason these were the first out of the “gate” so at the moment we can assume these are the stocks to follow.

AMD, ARMH, CAVM, LLTC, MXIM, MCHP, NVDA, SMTC, SPRD, TXN

To determine the strongest stocks within this group, we used the “Ian Slow” Relative Strength chart on HGSI. It measures the 6 month RS  with the most emphasis on the closet 3 months. Here is the RS chart of these 10 stocks based on the Wednesday close Sept 14.

Relative Strength Chart LINK

As you can see SPRD is top dog with ARMH and MXIM not far behind. Briefly looking at the charts, these three look ok. SPRD has had a nice run and will probably give us a few buy the dip opportunities.

Some of  you may be wondering why Dave and I are posting on Semis and Relative Strength at the same time. Do I read Dave’s blog for my ideas? No, but I will admit he has some brilliant discussion at times and worth ripping off. Dave and I both use HGSI for our research and of late HGSI has shown the semis are on the move. HGSI  has a valuable Relative Strength function that let’s you dig out what’s going on and we both see a change in the semis worth investigating.

But but but, Cramer just came out suggesting the semis, so why do “I” need HGSI? I just need to follow Cramer! Well that Mad Money man does have some interesting ideas and he surely follows the market and presents it in an interesting way. But do you have the time to sit down and watch each evening to catch the latest trend? Do you even get home at 6 PM in time to see each show?   Using HGSI each evening one can fully evaluate the market moves of the day, see what’s coming on or going away and come up with a list of stocks worth spending your kids inheritance on all in a matter of minutes. So with HGSI you get time management and great stock research.

If you didn’t see it here is a link to Cramer’s video on semis, it‘s quite good. See which semis he recommends.

Cramers semi video link: LINK

So do we jump into the semis?  Your guess is as good as mine, probably yes, but when considering the PIIGS problem across the pond?

The usual worthless disclaimer applies.  You buy any of these dogs and lose your house don’t whine to me, whine to Barr.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

Our forecasting tool are Neutral (see above) - You rather enter oversold markets and exit overbought markets.

Positions

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock –a @14% dividend

pot of gold

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Bought at 167.05 - Sold 1/2 for 180.4 Current price 177.21. Stop/sell order on GLD at 167.05. Now looking to buy small dip in price.

DisclaimerI buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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September 14, 2011

Power Nap

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

Power Nap

Investors411 is spending the day on research and answering emails. Two quick notes.

  • Short Term TradersThe PCR it looks like a very useful/accurate tool especially in predicting market moves from a day to a week+.  PCR closed at 1.19 =Bullish/Neutral. MO closed at 3.07 = Neutral.  HFT’s have 19% more puts to play with & MO is neutral = so short term advantage (not as strong as it was but) still with bulls.
  • Elizabeth Warren“Heroes” The Nov.10 2010 Investors411 is still the most Googled issue of Investors411. One of the “Heroes” Elizabeth Warren is running for Senate in my home state of Massachusetts. Consumer advocate, Warren is an clear underdog, but one of the few individuals I’m willing to work for.
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March 17, 2011

Rebounds

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Elizabeth Warren

News/Trends /Politics

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.04% up
NASDQ -1.89% up
S&P 500 -1,95% up
Russell 2000 -1.19% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan’s nuclear situation is still the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Market movement is dictated more by behavioral psychology than technicals at this point. However, there are some relevant technical and fundamental points

  • Yesterday’s heavy volume sure liked a climax sell off or the start of one. Volume dramatically higher has wiped out the weak holder of stocks, and there is room for an upside move.
  • Single largest piece of financial news is the dramatic move higher for Japanese currency . Another economic blow to Japan All good coming from Japan will cost more and what’s called the “carry trade” has ended.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose yesterday +0.46% Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar directly above a support level. = Neutral.
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to--88,39. Clearly oversold, but news from Japan trumps everything =Bullish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Japan reactor developments trump all technical aspects of the market. However, you have to start to think that at least some of the worst case senerio is built into stock prices.

This is a chart of the MO for the past 3 years The MO has fallen to -90 about 6 times in the last three years and each time it has improved dramatically within a couple days. It has not been this low in almost a year.

When you add the  flow of the Fed POMO money coming into the market to the fact that only strong holders of stocks are left you have a formula for a rally.

Yes, there could easily be another leg down on the Japanese reactor situation worsening. But for those with guts to buy when everyone else is selling now is the time. More reasonable investors will want to wait for another leg down or conclusion to the Japan reactor problem. Perhaps, A more sensible and cautious approach.

Stocks in pre market trading are moving higher. Moving up on no significant news from Japan is a positive sign. Moving up on bad news would be better.

Bottom Line – An oversold rebound is likely and shouldl turn into a rally if Japan situation stabilizes.

The one worry is Fed POMO runs out on June 30. If stocks are bad, there will probably be more quantitative easing. But the uncertainty over this hurts stocks.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now down below $100.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL -
  • Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • No positions held.

Considering UWM or TNA near the open if it does not open dramatically higher. Could be a very short term trade.  See comments section of blog for timing.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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November 9, 2010

Welcome to the Resistance.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Archie Bunker

Welcome To The Resistance

Our weapons are words and Investors411 not only stands for free, transparent rules based capitalism, it has a proven record of outperforming the benchmark S&P 500

So many of you, after an elections that the shadow forces of casino capitalism won, may feel like Archie Bunker in this video from All in the Family TV series. Younglings, may not remember this show but Grey beards do. Carroll O’Conner is a gifted comedian and even you will laugh over take on suicide. (Thanks to HG for heads up on video)

Back when The Iraq war started Investors411 warned (then Market Updates) that it would lead to endless war, cost trillions of dollars, sink the US into massive debt, cost 10′s of thousands of lives, create terrorism, embolden enemies, and do nothing about catching Osama Been Forgotten or finding WMD’s.

That was then and this is now so let’s feature perhaps the resistance’s best hope for change – Elizabeth Warren.

The following outline of warnings about the shadow financials and what they were doing to the USA comes primarily from a 2008 an interview of her & Arianna Huffington on CNBC’s Squawk Box

For 50 years after the Great Depression America had financial security and prosperity because FDR & congress put in regulators and laws to protect us from financial meltdowns. 50 years of prosperity. Then came the warnings as those financial reulations were eliminated.

  • Savings and Loans Crisis – 750 banks collapse because of poor management
  • Long Term Capital Management Crisis – Problems are worldwide
  • Enron – The financial books are Dirty. How much louder and public can you get?
  • Then came the the 2008 financial meltdown – $20 trillion in wealth lost worldwide.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.33% down
NASDQ +0.04% down
S&P -0.21% down
Russell 2000 +0.02% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Flat day in light volume for US stocks.

This is quite remarkable since the dollar had another significant rise and stock by many measures (except our MO) are overbought.

Shadow banks even stopped moving higher and the markets held up Obviously after the election the major shadow banks have the gift of opaque accounting, ability to borrow from the Fed for nothing, the support of the Obama administration and greater support from Republicans = No significant reforms and everything possible to crush any cops they may send out there to enforce transparency. See BAC or GS

Flat market in overbought conditions plus two day dollar rally = Bullish

The High Frequency Trader want to push this market higher.

Remember the back door stimulus the Fed uses POMO Shhhhh, Well another $6 billion quietly went into the economy yesterday.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose a significant +0.57% yesterday. Dollar broke its support level last week, but yesterday it broke back up through that resistance level. So just lie that the trend for stocks = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  -0.52% yesterday. BDI now consolidating after bull run that began in June. The BDI has been overshadowed by the dollar moves. Sitting directly above major support. Longer term Pattern starting to look bearish but the bears are not charging.= Bearish/NEUTRAL
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to +21.611% yesterday. Slightly elevated but back to = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Mea Culpa - I looked for more of a correction yesterday, but the sideways movement despite the many negatives (see above) indicates that the bulls are still in control

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • SSO (2x what S&P does) Sold  last 1/2 (originally purchased 9/20 at @ 39) at 45.29 +16% gain
  • EEM (emerging Markets) Have stop on 1/2 of position at what it was bought for.
  • TYH (3X tech stocks) Sold last 1/2 (recently purchased last week at @ 41.3) at 44.62 +8 gain
  • DGP (2x gold) Have 3% trailing stop on 1/2 this position.

Plan to use TYH and SSO, plus other leveraged ETF’s on dips in future. It looks like a mistake to let them go to soon since bulls are in control of this market. But, no one went broke taking profits.

Yes as Paul announced in comments section Investors will be revising YOUR Stock List.

The first two have clobbered the benchmark S&P 500. So for now we are looking for YOUR ideas. Choose a few stocks that you like and send them into me. If two of you send in the same stock it will get special consideration. Paul & I will go over the list and meld it to some of the stocks from the old list. Here are two rules.

  • The 50 day moving average must be moving up. That’s the blue line if you are using Stockcharts
  • No thinly traded stocks. Absolute minimum $2.5 million dollars worth of this stocks traded each day.  (example over 5000,000 shares traded and worth $5) Over $5 million is preferable. Smaller stocks are too easy manipulated by major players.

YOU MAKE THE DIFFERENCE, SO SEND IN A COUPLE STOCKS AND TOGETHER WE WILL ALL MAKE MONEY.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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