Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
March 10, 2010

Corporate Communism

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Dylan Ratigan

No Brainer TAX

Senators Jim Webb (D) and Barbara Boxer (D) are offering a NO BRAINER tax that many other countries have already enacted.

If your company took over $5 billion of the TARP funds (our tax money) all bonuses over $400,000 would be subject to a 50% tax for the years you held our TARP money. The only reason these companies exist is because of  the TARP bailout, borrowing trillions at @ 0.00% from the FED (means future inflation for you) and have been allowed to drop transparent mark to market accounting.

You’d think a 50% tax on just the bonuses over $400,000 for the top executive would fly through congress like far more stringent taxes have in other countries like Britain. But YOU hear almost nothing about it because of the lobbyists and their tight control over the media. Dylan Ratigan on MSNBC (4:00PM EST) yesterday carried an interview with Senator Webb (D-VA) It seems in their first attempt they could not even get this on the floor of the Senate for a vote.

YOU get the bill and the wealthy that screwed you get the BonusOnly in America and third world dictatorships does this happen.

Health Care

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

  • The Good-The proposed Heath car plan under Obama will cover an additional 31 million Americans. Perhaps we will no longer be #1 on the list of “western” countries in which preventable deaths occur. One Republican’s  plan covers 3 million additional Americans. Its better than zero.
  • The Bad – At best long term, the Obama plan may very very slightly limits the 17+% and growing amount of GDP we spend on health care. Obama administration long ago sold out to the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have in the USA.
  • The Ugly -  Totally political congress that is only interested in getting elected instead of solutions  and lack of leadership from Obama have prevented real solutions that are working – a public option or universal health care that dozens of other countries have voted to keep for decades.

Yes, we have the best health care system in the world - If youyou’rer a Saudi Prince, uber wealthy foreigner, know someone, or are a wealthy American you actually get to use the best system in the world. Forget it if you’re an average Joe and Jane American.

Whipcongress.com has  kept the drive for a public option alive – 40 Senators have signed on – YOU can help.

Dylan Ratigan

Dylan, used to be the anchor and co creator of CNBC’s “Fast Money” and now has his own show on MSNBC.  He has both financial skills and is unafraid to nail any politician or industry unlike the corporate lapdogs of CNBC. As stated above his show is on at 4:00 PM EST.  One of his recent editorials on Corporate Communism in Heath Care and Banking. is a Must Read.

As Americans, I believe we reject communism because it historically has allowed a tiny group of people to consolidate complete control over national resources (including people), in the process stifling competition, freedom and choice. It leaves its citizens stagnating under the perpetual broken systems with no natural motivation to innovate, improve services or reduce costs.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.11% up
NASDQ +0.36% up
S&P 500 +0.17% up
Russell 2000 +0.38% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

A decent rally collapsed into yesterday’s close. We rallied a bit in the last 10 minutes to close in the green. Volume was up & above average. The benchmark S&P 500 came within @ 0.40% of reaching anew 18 month high. The NASDQ and Russell 2000 are already at new highs, but it has NOT been the typical big volume breakout that usually signifies the continuation of a major rally.

US markets need some fundamental push to breakout before the bullish momentum runs out of steam.

  • Perhaps good news from weekly jobless claims Thursday.
  • Perhaps the increased exports/imports just announced by China will lead markets higher, China is not nearly as close to or at  a new highs like US, Britain and some other countries. Worries over a developing housing/office space glut/bubble are holding back investors.
  • Perhaps it will be the financial sector (XLF the ETF) that almost broke out yesterday. – Attempts to regulate this sector are getting weaker.
  • Perhaps the Dollar will fall. This would mean the Euro would get stronger.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator dropped a bit to +6o.89 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
  • BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule Two days ago the BDI, like stocks, leveled off in front of a strong resistance level. Yesterday it fell.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Mantra – Since the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) is still over +60, or overbought -  Right now,  selling (taking profits) is more desirable than opening new positions because of the short term over bought conditions. Positions:

  • 6% EWZ (Brazil)
  • 5%MOO (agriculture ETF)
  • 5%FXI (China)
  • 3% IMAX – In a HUGE explosion higher right now

All three ETF positions are currently under performing US markets.  They are 5 to 10% from their old highs. Will sell more if NYMO gets above +80. Will nibble on THY & other positions if NYMO falls to @+20

Answer to Monitor’s comment - Congratulations on using  YOUR Stock Picks wisely and making a killing, I know others who have used the list and sent personal emails are also doing well.  See comments section on side of blog.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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February 22, 2010

The TERROIST attack.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Austin Plane Crash

Act of Terrorism in Austin Texas

Can Americans Think?

Is there something hardwired into everyone on the plant that prevents logical conclusions? Perhaps were just manipulated mud  for corporate media (see story below).  Everyone thinks THEY are smart and the rest of the population is, how should you put it – lacking.

So here’s a quick quiz. It should take you a second or two to answer. Yet over 50% of Americans get this simple question wrong. – A bat and a ball together cost one dollar & 10 cents and the bat costs one dollar more than the ball.  How much does the ball cost. (answer below)

The TERRORIST Attack

Last Thursday Joseph Stack burnt his home and crashed his plane into an IRS building () in Austin Texas killing or injuring at least a dozen people.  Unbelievably, the corporate US media, failed to label this a terrorist attack. Sure there were grumblings, but callers into Fox News & other right wing outlets told of their outrages against the IRS & taxes.

The ultra right wing editorial department of the WSJ called him just a “tax protester.” Even Worse Scott Brown, Massachusetts new Republican senator ” appeared to embrace the possibility that the pilot of the plane might have been one of his followers.” Even left wing Newsweek debates the point.

Bottom Line - Americans are brainwashed with fear. If this guy was a Muslim who crashed his plane into a US government building it would be a clear terrorist attack. Is there any doubt that the US corporate media would be alive with stories about this act of terrorism today if he was Muslim who crashed a plane into a government building.  Instead the story has all but vanished.

ANSWER

Answer – The Ball costs .05 cents and the bat $1.05.  Perhaps you got the answer right, perhaps wrong. But if you’re patting yourself on the back for getting it right, there are a large number of  cognitive traps that we all fall too easily into.  Of course, perhaps the largest is being manipulated through FEAR. (more tomorrow)

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.09% down
NASDQ +0.10% up
S&P 500 +0.22% up
Russell 2000- +0.37% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Last Week’s FEARLESS FORECAST - “Oversold market’s natural direction is up….Bullish.”

In one week US equities have gone from oversold to overbought positions. Almost overbought – (see below) We’ve had a week of rally days in weak below average volume. Volume, the #1 confirmation factor of a price move, has NOT confirmed this rally.

Lowe’s – the home products giant – had a positive report this AM.

Major group of Business economists up outlook for 2010 & 2011

Monday’s have been historically  rally days for the last few months. A big oil merger is going to add fuel to “merger Monday.”

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Index rose to +56.23. Basically 60 = overbought and usually a time to sell or lighten up on positions. This is NOT a hard and fast rule. There has been a sharp fast change and a lot of upside momentum. So there is still psychologically a lot of positive momentum out there.
  • BDI The Baltic Dry Index which measures world trade (also a proxy for China) has fallen since late November, but rallied last week.
  • US Dollar – The dollar has come up off its low at about $74.5 in Dec. and rallied to $80.59. Rising dollar is usually bad for markets. Dollar was flat last week. A breakout Friday was

This Week’s FEARLESS FORECAST

Everything technical (volume & McClellan) is showing that we are running out of rally room.  However behaviorally psychology has changed. Unemployment down, many big businesses have cash, Lowe’s news, the Fed raising discount rate, tame CPI numbers and economist almost universally agreeing the stimulus has worked are all making investors think rally.

It sure looks like investors want to rally despite approaching oversold positions. When bulls charge you get out of the way. Nevertheless, the only time the McClellan reached over 100 was in the rally after the 2008 meltdown.  Things have NOT reversed themselves as radically as then.  Therefore, selling into any major rally that will boost stocks. ( perhaps as much as 50% of portfolio & buying back on a dip in McClellan to zero or below.

Rally Ho, but it gets sold off at end of week.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) – These are positions I actually own

Mea Culpa - Should have added more to ETF positions while McClellan Index was down at -60.

ETF Positions

  • 10% of portfolio EWZ (Brazil)
  • 6%of portfolio FXI (China)
  • 10% of portfolio MOO (agriculture)
  • 3% of portfolio IMAX (3D)
  • 7.5% of portfolio TYH (3x what techs do)

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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