Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
July 15, 2012

Recession/Deficit Solutions

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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The Greatest Economists of the 20th Century

Agreed that you Stimulate Your way Out of a

Recession

.

.


Solutions to The Deficit

Stimulus or Austerity

(Part 1)

.

The  Outstanding Success of

The Obama Stimulus

.

.

Why Stimulus Works

&

Austerity Doesn’t

.

The Obama Stimulus cost $787 billion.

Our national debt is @ $15 trillion.

A 5.2% one time addition to our debt.

.

.

Under Obama & his Stimulus

Job growth went from -800,000 to +300,000

GDP went from -8.9% to +3.9%. = +12.8%

.

Millions of jobs

created millions of taxpayers

& the GDP expanded.

Taxes paid by those with jobs

REDUCE the deficit

year after year after year…

.

Everything was working until

*The Stimulus ran out

*The Austerity/Banksta Republicans

won the House of Representatives

&

*Obama, himself, put more focus on

austerity instead of stimulus

.

.

Republican blocked virtually every

stimulus/jobs growth plan.

&

Had to be dragged kicking and screaming

for even a payroll tax cut

.

********************

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Let’s see what happens to

the deficit

when Banksta/austerity

gain even more control.

.

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Examples – Austerity as a Solution

The European countries in economic trouble.

Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, & Spain

.’

.

Ireland’s “free market” economy was

the goal of every Banksta in America.

The Baking Industry had “captured government”

Regulators were no where to be found.

Then Something Hit the Fan

.

.

Ireland was the first country to impose

The Austerity Solution

.

The Deficit

Exploded Higher

.

Ireland Government Debt To GDP

.

Ireland’s unemployment rate exploded

from 4.6% in 2008 to 14.3% today

..

IRELAND with Austerity

A 311% INCREASE in Unemployment

A 433% INCREASE in Debt to GDP

.

In Hard Economic Times

Austerity = More Debt

..

.

More Examples

The Other 4 Troubled European Countries

who have adopted the austerity solution.

All have

Debt to GDP ratios that are still exploding higher

All  have unemployment still exploding higher

For data on these countries see this LINK

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Next Blog – Common Sense works, Regulated Banking works, When Austerity works, Those plutocrats that don’t give a damn, but say they do – More Solutions.

FINIS


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May 31, 2012

Assaults on Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Remote Control

.

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How YOU are CONTROLLED

Framing & Buying

Democracy

(A Multi Part Series)

.

The US Supreme Court Passed

The infamous Citizens United by

a 5 to 4 vote.

.

.

ALL 5 votes for changing

the laws governing elections

were made by

RIGHT WING

Justices

.

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As Democracy Withers

.

“Ask NOT what you can

do for your country”

.

Ask What  price  that

Politician or Media Outlet

can be bought for.

.

How Easy is it to Form a Corporation?

.

Any Plutocrat with $49

can form a Corporation and

.

  • Create A Super PAC
  • Give Unlimited Contributions
  • Give Hidden Contributions
  • Coordinate with Political Candidates
  • Buy YOUR Democracy

LINK for more Info

.

******************

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A more Transparent & Bloody

Assault on Democracy

.

.

Syria

.

  • Latest from correspondent within Syria at BBC


.

*******************

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STOCKS

.

.

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Cartoonist forgot the Irish Iceberg

Otherwise accurate & ominous

.

The EU is the world’s great

hope for Democracy.

.

You have to have a functioning Democracy to join. One wonders if the USA would now qualify in light of  our Supreme court’s Citizen’s United decision.

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Timeline of Known Events

Impacting Stocks

.

  • Irish Elections this week
  • 1st Friday in June – US unemployment figures.
  • June 7th – Important meetings in EU
  • June 17th Greek elections
  • June 19th & 20th – Our Fed meets.

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Austerity

.

The world may be finally waking up to the fact that this whole ultra right wing/tea party concept of

.

Austerity NOW  presents

a far greater risk of

.

DEPRESSION

.

rather than

a simple solution.

.

In fact those cans that that are supposed to be insecticide in the cartoon should be considered food supplements instead.

.

Our Canary In a Coal Mine

Stock Market(s) Barometer

.

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The Canary may not be Dead Yet

But the yield on the 10 year Spanish bond

is rising close to the 7.00% Danger Zone.

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Today  a huge drop – LINK

6.45% at 8:20 EDT

.

So Stocks should rally

.

NB.- Paul has picked up on the fact that AAPL rose yesterday, despite a stock  meltdown.


****************

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No changes in LTO till Spanish bonds close below at least 6.25%.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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April 25, 2012

Austerity or Growth

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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It’s Official

Keynes & Krugman

are Right

.

Prize Award Ceremony

.

At least for the Dutch

French and most of Europe

.

Keynes and Krugman are two Nobel Prize winning Economists who believe you stimulate your way out of a recession. Austerity plunges you deeper into the recession.


After several years of austerity right wingers in France and Holland (yesterday’s elections), plus many more got the message.

From Yahoo Finance

the money quote

.

“The “austerity” idea, you’ll remember, was that the continent’s huge debt and deficit problem had ushered in a “crisis of confidence” and that, once business-people saw that governments were serious about debt reduction, they’d get confident and start spending again.”

.

“That hasn’t worked.”

.

____________

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The Obama

Economic Triumph

.


Facing Financial Armageddon,

a -8.9% GDP rate & the losses of Almost -800,000 a month

Obama took offic in Jan 2008.

.

By the end of 2010 GDP had soared to between +2% and+3%

and job growth had turned positive up to +250k a month


.

Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP

In 2010 the uncompromising

Tea Party Republicans took over,

the Obama Stimulus Ran out, and

therefore, growth came to a halt.

.

  • Moving from a -9% GDP to a +2/3% GDP is real Change You can Believe in
  • Moving From a -800,00 jobs a month to +200,000 jobs is real Change you can Believe in.

.

Please show me another President

who has taken GDP from -9% to +2/3%

.

The problem

.

We have a big deficit, Europe already shown austerity leads to another recession, Japan got clobbered, China’s GDP is shrinking and Apple’s huge earnings success yesterday just leads to more Chinese jobs.

European voters have realized that just austerity doesn’t work.

.

So should you.

.

*******************

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STOCKS

.

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  • APPL had one of those OMG earnings report.  Sales were so so in the USA, but in China they were spectacular.
  • Spanish Bonds have fallen for the last two days and are SIGNIFICANTLY  below the 6.00% danger zone at 5.79%. Latest update for traders HERE
  • NB -Apple’s earnings are a reflection of their business doing spectacular in China and not in the USA – Reuters story

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

Kudos to Monitor (long term Apple holder) who a full day before the earnings report suggested AAPL return to YOUR Stock List.  Apple should lead tech and the S&P, but obviously don’t expect results like last quarter. There will be a group of investors/traders who will again buy the first dip.

Longer term – The Cavalry sure looks like its come to the rescue in Spain. Friends of the FED and ECB are keeping Spanish bonds below the danger Zone.


.

*************************

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PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Your Stock List

.


.

April is almost over

Now is your chance to get your favorite stock

added to Your Stock List!

.

Effective April 30 all current YSL members are being removed.

On May 1 we will announce  the new list

.

List YOUR top stocks in the comments section or email them to Barr ASAP.

The only requirement is that a stock trades at least $5,000,000 dollars a day. Example –  Stock XYZ is worth $10 and trades 500,000 shares a day. This way we eliminate stocks that are not liquid and subject to more manipulation.

If you like defend your stock in a sentence or two.

From YOUR selections Barr & I will try to to come up with a list of 10 to 15 stocks that again will beat the S&P 500. These stocks will be tracked throughout the month. Entry and exit points will be suggested.

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As most of you know

This process has worked!

ONLY because of

YOUR  participation.


Of the 8 stock Lists only one

has failed to beat the S&P 500

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Group performance results for the month of April will be listed Tuesday morning.


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*******************

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Spanish Bond over 6% = Change to NEUTRAL

These bonds are now back below 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 5, 2012

They’re Back – Vampire Squids

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

.

Vampire Squids

/

Investment Banks

,

.

Question???

.

Who would the

Vampire Squids

rather give a Loan to?

.

.

A group of Terrorists

(Perhaps in the Sudan)?

.

.

A Group or Country

That’s Rioting Now (Perhaps Spain)?

.

.

American Small Business?

.

If the Vampire Squid could avoid the negative publicity associated with their loan, who would they give their money to?

.

Answer

It Doesn’t Matter

.

The Vampire Squid/Investment Bank

.

doesn’t give a damn.

.

Their big profits does not from capitalism, but from money extraction for all kinds of loans –  From the terrorist’s credit card to a Europen student loan.

They take these loans in bundles and gamble them in the unregulated casino or $600 trillion dollar derivatives market.

.

There is no reason to care what the quality if the loan is.

Only worry – The profit from

the commission and gambling


.________________

.

Who Pays for the

Bailout or Financial Armegeddon

If A Too Big to Fail

Vampire Squid dies?

_______

.

Look deep into a Mirror

.


Is This what you see?

But its coming.’.

********************

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STOCKS

.

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

_____________

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Eurogeddon???

Caution - Figures in Below Graphic are dated.

Therefore, NOT Accurate

.

.

We had some warning sign yesterday, as European markets took a big hit and US markets followed with a more minor hit.

Will Eorope recover?

Will there be another recession?

Will there be Eurogeddon?.

A tough call. But Investors411  gives you…

Why its happening,

Whose in Trouble (really everyone)

How to measure if help is coming

.

______________

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Repeat from Yesterday

A graph from Zero Hedge on what’s moving stocks now

.

Our Long Long Term Bullish Bias

Becomes a bit shaky because of Europe

(see below)

.


______________

.

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Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -50.28. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) We are approaching overbought territory at @-60 MO is  = NEUTRAL/bullishbullish
  • 6 month chart of MO. Remember – The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms. MO will get trumped if Spanish/Italian bonds continue to fall.

.

______________

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Canary in a Coal Mine

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Investors411 uses several different gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks and bonds. Spain and Italy are the next two countries in line that are in economic trouble.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield rose to the highest in a month yesterday and this AM 5.50% (6:45 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone but…
  • Spain’s 10 year bond yield rose significantly yesterday (4+%) and this AM (2+%) to 5.81% (6:45AM EST)

.

From Yesterday

The Canary just Chirped.


.

**********************

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Paul’s Corner

.

.

WHOOPS!

Um, Dow down 124, NASDAQ down 45, the S&P down 14, who exited the dance floor yesterday and left us standing there? A buy the dip opportunity or the start of the dreaded long overdue correction?

My good friend Ian Woodward posted a blog last evening discussing the current market and what to watch for.

LINK

As Ian suggests, yesterday was a major shot across the bow and is the second we have had in a matter of weeks.  He gives you APPL upside and down side targets. Please take a few minutes and read Ian’s blog.

YOUR Stock List

CMG – sitting on the 17, held up well yesterday.

DLTR – sitting on the 17, held up well yesterday.

ENB – chart starting to look attractive

FAST – dropped below the 17, its usual line of support, basing

FL – sitting on the 17, indicators turning red

HD – sitting on the 17, held up well yesterday.

IMAX – broke below the 50, HGSI indicators are red

IBM – closed on the 17

KLAC – dropped to the 17, its usual line of support

LEN – sitting on the 17, held up well yesterday.

MC – sitting above the 17, held up well yesterday.

MNST – sitting on the 9, held up well yesterday.

SWI – closed below the 17 and above the 50, this is a high beta stock

TSCO – good chart action yesterday, didn’t even know a correction was going on.

URI – sitting on the 17

Personally I’m going to sit out the next few dances on the market dance floor until we have a clearer idea of market direction. Too many times in instances like we are sitting, I have lost a few toes for venturing out onto the dance floor when the elephants were leaving.

As Ian suggests “Net-net, tomorrow (today) will be a key day with regard to where we sit for this Rally…It is at the crossroads.”

.

*********************

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We have a serious problem in the rising

yields of Spanish and Italian bond rates.

.

Nervous Nelly

.

The rising Bond Yields

Unless rapidly addressed are a significant problem

Sooner Rather Than Later

.

The rise in yields started a month ago and is now growing faster. Spain, the worst rose 4% yesterday and has added 2% already this AM.

I don’t have the inside information or skill to to know when or how Central Banks will manipulate Spanish/Italian bonds lower or ride to the rescue.

But they always have intervened in the past.

How ECB and friends drive down rates – They supply the liquidity for banks and others to buy the bonds, therefore driving  down rates.

.

But, right now it looks like they are

loosing control.

.

Therefore Investors411 is closing its long position in XHB (homebuilders ETF)

with a Stop/sell order at 20.64.

.

.

As stated many times, the Central Banks have always rode to the rescue.

Listen for the trumpet –

That’s Spanish/Italian bond rates falling.

The final look at the Spanish 10 year bond

at 8:45 AM EST.

Down a bit from 6:45 to

5.79%



_______________


Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 4, 2012

Eurogeddon?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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Europe’s Coming Recession

.

.

Eurogeddon?

.

What worked – You saw Bernanke /Obama stimulate the USA Economy and lead the world  out of the feared “economic armageddon” of the Great Recession.

What’s not - Now we are watching European governments act, just like Republicans, introducing austerity measures way too soon and drive their economies into recession.

.

England & the EU are the

World’s Largest economic Entity

.

Therefore, It’s Recession or Possible

Eurogedden

Will Impact The World

.

___________

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The Warning

.

.

Paul Krugman

.

Nobel Prize Winner – Paul Krugman – Has warned has warned of Europe’s impending doom in a series of editorials. The latest on 1/30, 1/31, 2/6, 2/18, 3/7 - Link Here if you’d like to read warnings

.

The Problem is European Leaders have

committed their people to

Sever Fiscal Austerity

.

Europe’s got the monetary (Introduce more liquidity) part right, but they are dramatically slashing budgets way too early.  Here’s some early GDP results.

.

Observe what’s happened in the last Year to GDP

Compare with the USA

.

United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate

Italy GDP Growth Rate

France GDP Growth Rate

United States GDP Growth Rate

You can use ANY European Country

and compare last years results with the USA.

We go up.

They at best go down slightly

At worst dramatically down

___________

.

DANGER WILL ROBINSON

DANGER DANGER

.

.

It’s Time to Bring out the old “Lost in Space Robot” with all his flashing lights, and flapping arms and warn of impending long term doom.

.

The Downward GDP Trend in Europe is CLEAR

The Upward GDP Trend in the USA is CLEAR.

Europe can drag the rest of the world down with it.

or

The US can drag Europe up with it.

.

The Solution has always been clear

to Investors411 readers

.

Before you turn the deficit hawks loose you stimulate, create jobs, and make sure the recession is behind you.

.

______________

.

Bottom Line

.

Its impossible to call the tipping point in Europe, a day, a month a year?

But its coming.



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STOCKS

.

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

Headline

Eurogeddon

Caution – Figures in Below Graphic are dated.

Therefore, NOT Accurate

.

.

The First Warning signs

.

First – a graph from Zero Hedge on what’s moving stocks now

A Second Chart showing  globalized liquidity. The amount of $ Central Banks are flooding the markets with - LINK

.

  • Any meltdown (possible Eurogedden) won’t happen all at once
  • But this morning Germany – The leading Country in Europe – broke down through its support level.

.

Therefore, Our Long Long Term Bullish Bias

Becomes a bit shaky because of Europe

.

Bottom Line - The Central Banks still Rule, but the question of a deeper European recession will now get factored into stock prices. Unfortunately it looks worse than most predict.

Increased budget cuts are plunging Europe into a deeper recession.

______________

.

.

Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -19.45. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) MO is  = NEUTRAL

.

______________

.

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Canary in a Coal Mine

.

Investors411 uses two gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield rose to the highest in a month 5.29% (8:15 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone but…

the Canary just Chirped.

.

**********************

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It’s NOT the time to panic, because the Central banks will produce more liquidity if the problem gets worse.

However, China slowing down, Japan’s problems, a coming European recession are all drags on a remarkable US recovery.

Things  are NOT as long term bullish as they used to be last quarter.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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February 29, 2012

Stopping The Vampire Squid

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

The Vampire Squid

.

Globalized Finances

.

The biggest loss in our vampire “extraction” financial system is not the trillions in wealth lost or the trillions printed by Central banks.

It is the fact that we are no longer running a capitalist financial system.

We are running a system based on unregulated gambling or placing bets on the credit worthiness of  YOUR money. Gone is most of incentive for competition to find worthy clients to loan money to.

Instead banks profit now by bundle loans and sell them to investment banks. Then they are placed on an unregulated $600 trillion dollar casino (Credit Default Swaps/derivatives market) to be bet on.

From Financial Analyst

Dylan Ratigan

.

Solutions

.

From the Great Depression we put rules in place on our financial structure that prevented systemic risk. Those were weakened and finally collapsed near the turn of the century.

The easy answer is to put those rules back in place.

How?


The Volker Rule

The NYT

editorial yesterday


Some Specific Changes from Dylan Ratigan’s Chart which has been featured through out this series.

The advantages of this solution is regulations worked for  over 6 decades and its far less chaotic than the Libertarian solution presented yesterday.

The vast majority of the American public don’t even know a huge over leveraged, unregulated casino of derivatives or credit default swaps betting even exists. At some point in time a credit imbalance is going to be too big for the already up to their neck in freshly printed money for the Central banks to handle.

You know what happens next.


End of series


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STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

  • Employment numbers for February, usually come out on first Friday and this could be a short term market moving number.
  • Dow moved over 13,000 milestone and gobs of Technical analys all reconize that stocks are overbought.
  • However the mantra is again - Stocks/Bonds/Currencies are being manipulated by central banks.  This week Investors showed $6.5 trillion is now the balance sheet of the Fed and ECB.
  • Low volume rallies are here to stay until this system cracks.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -14.47. 50 Day Moving Average at +21.46 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Lots of wiggle room for bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

  • The Manipulation – The European Central Bank – loans money to troubled Spanish and Italian banks for a nominal rate and they go out and buy troubled Spanish and Italian bonds. Spain and Italy are many times larger than other troubled European countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal and therefore far more important.
  • Like the USA after the Lehman collapse, Central bank money printing , now up to $6.5 trillion, is keeping both Europe and the USA economically solvent. Our 10 year Treasury bills are near 2%
  • Italian 10 year bond yield fell again to 5.27% (6:30 AM EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.

  • If the bubble does pop Italian bond yields will explode higher. – But So far…

NO SIGN OF THIS (yet).

NB – The “yet” at the end. It may be a week, a year, or even longer, but the bubble is building and you know what expanding bubbles do.


.

******************

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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December 23, 2011

Ron Paul/Michael Moore

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

From Investors411


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Michael Moore is A Whimp

So is the Left in the USA



Thumbnail


Why? They didn’t produce

This Video Ron Paul did.

Ron Paul also recognizes its the shadow financials that are crushing the USA. His solution – return to a gold standard and eliminate the Fed would solve the problem, but create a world wide depression.

Instead we need a Teddy Roosevelt to reestablish our rules, regulators, break up too big to fail banks & a government that does not go to war and cut taxes.

Right now we are playing financial football without most of the rules and far less referees. Pure Free Market Capitalism is playing the same financial  football game without any rules or referees.


********************

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STOCKS

.

.

Neuschwanstein Castle – Germany

The Bulls are Back – Yesterday marked the second technical confirmation of  Torrid Tuesday US equities held onto or added to their gains.

The Prime catalyst mentioned yesterday was the European Central Bank giving $647 billion in low interest loans to over 532 banks.

As Popeye points out in the Comments section


Banks get Bailed Out

We get Sold Out


To keep the crony under regulated opaque crony capitalist system alive, European Banks are getting bailed out. They are the ones who made most of  the bad loans (bought the bonds) to  a handful of troubled European countries.  These financials made the loans because they could repackage them into “financial weapons of mass destruction” – credit default swaps.

The people of Europe get the higher taxes, job loses and cuts in government programs.


Sound familiar?


There are two solutions to this problem – Or its going to keep happening again and again.

  • Ron Paul’s – Blowup the Fed and go on the gold standard
  • Create real regulation, enoough real regulators and eliminate too big to fail shadow financials & opaque markets.

Repeat  - Bottom Line - This is a manipulated market. The ECB in what may just be the first of many loans has made an impact. Bulls Rule

Overnight Data From Europe


Germany’s DAX

Gapped up at open, lost @1/2 and fell to +0.38 at –  at 6:40 AM EST

Other major European Indexes doing better.

DAX at  +0.20% at 8:45 EST

Italian 10 year bond

Opened at 6.96% - 2:30 AM EST

Fell to 6.90% at 6:45 AM EST

Italian bond at 6.94% at 8:45 AM EST

.

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Paul’s Corner

One of the things I love about the HGSI software is the various searches I look at nightly occasionally spit out stocks I have never heard of and may do that for several days in a row. BKI has been appearing repeatedly for days now.

BKI Buckeye Technologies Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of cellulose-based specialty products. It operates in two segments, Specialty Fibers and Nonwoven Materials. The Specialty Fibers segment offers chemical cellulose, customized fibers, and fluff pulp derived from wood and cotton cellulose materials using wetlaid technology. The Nonwovens Materials segment provides airlaid nonwoven materials derived from wood pulps, synthetic fibers, and other materials using airlaid technology. The company?s products are used in various applications, such as disposable diapers, personal hygiene products, engine air and oil filters, food casings, rayon filament, acetate plastics, thickeners, and papers. Buckeye Technologies Inc. markets and sells its products directly through its sales force, as well as through sales agents primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and South America. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

Ok big deal, a pulp mill? Interesting stuff made from wood scrap I’d burn for heat in the winter. But in an investment world of Smart Phones, flash drives, AAPL, ZNGA, why the decent chart and recent chart acceleration?

The following article surfaced yesterday and might explain the move. LINK

BKI broke out nicely yesterday from a nice 8 week base. Some of the move was probably generated from this article. Although it is somewhat thinly traded at 400,000 shrs a day, all of my favorite HGSI chart indicators are green. Even with yesterday’s pop, BKI is not over extended at the moment. If one is to trade this stock it might be beneficial to watch chart action for a few days and one shouldn’t typically trade at the open, the morning after a decent pop like it had the day before.

Several other stocks in the pulp wood group are looking good too. For your evaluation here are the other stocks within this group.

BKI

MERC

FBR

CLW

IP

WPP

INDEX

MWV

NP

UFS

SPP

GLT

ABH

VRS

KS

SWM

ONP

Note, stocks are listed in an HGSI Top Down Analysis sort from 12/22. This sort can and does change every day. The chart and the fundies should be one’s guide to stock selection.

My good friend Ian Woodward posted an excellent late night blog last evening and gave some good thought as to the current market and what to look for if this Santa Claus rally is to continue. Be sure to read it!

LINK

It’s 7 AM as I write this morning; ABC Good Morning America just came on and at the open they featured soldiers coming home from Iraq. It sure is nice this horror story is “some what” over.

Merry Christmas All!

Disclaimer, all comments are for education only and are not meant as stock buy or sell recommendations.

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose to +34.86 . 50DMA at +5.88 = NEUTRAL/bearish

We’re on the cusp of moderately overbought, but no where near clear reversal territory.

See past Investors411 for all the other bullish factors influencing the market this week.

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The fact that the ECB is making very low interest rates yo 500+ European banks takes some heat off of Europe and mitigates the Italian Problem. If Italy goes into “controlled bankruptcy” it’s impact on European banks will be less devastating.

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The 7.00% rate on the Italian 10 year is still significant, but less so after the ECB intervention. The 6.94% proximity to 7.00% is the only thing holding back another major rally today.

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For more information on trading strategies see STRATEGY Section of blog.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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The Bulls are back (see above)

Upgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

We have been on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for almost a month.  So its subject to change. Both Neutral and Cautiously Bullish are favorable for longer term investments. Obviously one is more favorable than the other.


CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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December 20, 2011

Crisis in Europe

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Relaxing

[A message for Investors]

Europe


The Economic viability of Europe continues to be the #1 investment related issue.

The best shorter term forecasting tool of what’s happening there continues to be the yield rate on the Italian 10 year bond (set chart to one day to get current readings) and its proximity to 7.00% danger zone where other European countries entered “controlled bankruptcies”

At 2:30 AM EST the bond opened at 6.93%

At 5:00AM EST the yield fell to 6.64%

At 8:00AM EST it fell to 6.61%.

European and US stock markets are currently  inveserly correlated to the yield rate of the troubled 3rd largest country in Europe. (Italy)

Therefore, falling rates = European stocks are up and US equities should benefit.

This could all change by 9:30 AM EST when US markets open and those changes will impact stocks throughout the day.

Longer term –  Approaching 7.00% is like driving your car to the edge of a cliff and slamming on the brakes again and again and… The brakes have worked. But how long is it before they wear down?

Investors411 is moving to a Monday, Wednesday and Friday format

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December 12, 2011

The Age of Greed

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

The Age of Greed


Dr Jonas Salk

By Yankee Bob


Back in our youth their was a very real threat to our well being from Polio. Polio was, as you know, a major killer and a debilitating disease that could have stricken any of  us at any time. Research money poured in to find the cure.

Dr. Jonas Salk did find the cure for this disease that was a bigger deal back in the 50′s then AIDS is now. Why do I mention it? Dr Salk found the cure for this major health problem and he donated it to the world as a simple act of human kindness. He felt his salary as a researcher and teacher was enough for him.

The man that could have made millions maybe even billions from his break thru did ...gave it to the world as a gift.

Can you see this happening today in this age of greed.????

Corporations are busy patenting all their research on human and plant genes. Break thrus and treatments will not be given away. This is an age of greed. Greed institutionalized by corporations. Society be damned! Corporate greed overrides human need and the political system has been overtaken from this greed.

The immediate problem is how to change the ethics when corporations have a choke hold on media. The telling of the narrative,the very image of reality presented by corporate media has to be challenged and changed…

Conclusion Tomorrow

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Great  Videos

Several of you have recently sent in some videos that are Just plane fun, have some significance or both. Keep them coming. Here’s a couple that you all will enjoy.


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STOCKS

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Europe still has Significant Influence over US Stocks


Although there are some significant analysts out their like Jim Cramer (ex Goldman Sachs executive) who believe that we got some short term stability out of the European Summit and the US should be focused on what happens here this week. The other side has a good longer term argument, despite Friday’s rally.

Friday’s low volume rally is typical of the manipulated markets we saw as our Fed flooded the USA with liquidity (QE #1, QE #2 and other less transparent measures)

The longer term problem lies in the enforced austerity of poorer European countries which is sold as they pay or the richer countries taxpayers will pay. It’s a problem is imbedded in the German and the worldwide Bankster financial system that allows phony capitalism and those troubled European bonds to bring financial Armageddon.

Remember, just like in 2008, the now threatened bonds were bought because they could be repackaged and sold as derivatives, This over leveraging in an opaque CDS system (CDS = Warren Buffet’s term Weapons of Financial Destruction) still thrives.

There are several decent editorial out there. A solid editorial by Mohamed El Erian LINK. The best I found was from The Atlantic and it may make your eyes glass over, because its technical – Here’s the LINK and here’s the money line in  Clive Crook’s editorial.

Germany’s demands are bad finance, bad fiscal policy, and bad constitutional design. You don’t fix this mess by ruling out forceful action until closer integration has been achieved. You don’t repair Europe’s underlying political dysfunction by increasing the distance between government and governed.

Bottom Line - Investors411 does NOT see as rosy picture as Cramer presents.

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Strong correlation between Europe and US stock opening price

Germany’s DAX down 1.81% at 6:15 AM EST

DAX down - 1.96% at 8:22 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell slightly to +16,80. 50DMA at +11.22 = NEUTRAL

The S&P 500′s 200 DMA is proving to be a strong resistance level for US equities.

See chart at right top of blog. We have failed to significantly crack this level for 5 days. The longer we fail to crack this level significantly, the stronger it gets. We are back just below breakout levels.

Market cheerleaders are hyping that the Italian short term bond rate today fell below 6% (7% is danger level)

  • News from Europe is still a trump card.
  • Other big event of week is the Fed meets this week.

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Current Positions

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Strategy – Buy the Dip of trending sector/stock

Paul’s tutorial on Buying the Dip

Your Stock List #7 [YSL #7] is out and Paul has been updating it in the comment section of the blog. – Some excellent choices here.

SSO - (ETF that is @ 2X long the S&P 500) Bought, on dip at 46.20. A 5% stop loss order on this stock.

USO - (Oil ETF and UCO 2x oil) under consideration on dips.

All of Your Stock List #7 with links to charts may now be found  in the Positions Section of blog. (Scroll down)


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Longer Term Outlook

3 months

Fundamentals behind the LTO -

The Fed has seemingly committed to do whatever it takes to hold things together. From US equities to the European Union. Over the last few years our Fed has been a successful major manipulator of US equities -higher. Working with allies it is attempting to do the same on a global scale.

The Fed’s manipulations do NOT fix the root cause of our over leveraged opaque financial system. They, at best, offer a temporary solution to keep stocks afloat.

The Fed’s manipulations are also less transparent then before (example QE #1 & 2). Therefore market direction is that much more difficult to call. The CAUTIOUSLY BULISH Outlook is hanging on by the skin of its teeth -

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CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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NB – The LTO has been reduced to 3 months. Even 3 months is a stretch. Basic fundamental is Don’t Fight the Fed.But the Fed’s actions/manipulations are not transparent.

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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December 5, 2011

The Grand Slam Of Grand Slams

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

“The Grand Slam

of Grand Slams”


Dustin Pedroia’s Grand Slam vs Yankees

No this is NOT about Baseball,

but about a financial expert/reporter/editor Dylan Ratigan who was last featured in this blog on September 28. His Rant is the

“Grand Slam of Grand Slams.”


Dylan Ratigan

Wendy Thompson Anderson brings up the August on Air Rant of Ratigan in Investors411 comments section.


Her link to the Ratigan’s Rant.

‘Tens of trillions of dollars are being extracted from our financial system…

Check out Ratigan’s award winning financial background.

If you want to take action you to help

  • Join Get Money Out of Politics, I have joined along with 250,00o+ others
  • Wendy and her OWS friends deserve consideration.
  • You can pass on the Ratigan Rant to others.

Yankee Bob

Yankee Bob’s original editorial has been replaced with the following on Ratigan’s Rant.

Dylan Ratigan’s rant is a grand slam. It’s the Grand Slam of Grand Slams. It is inarguably right on target. Not only is it must see TV but it’s absolutely right on.

I have been saying for months that a 5th grader could solve our economic and social woes. I still believe it. So why is it so hard for our political class to do so? It’s the money!! IT’S  THE MONEY!!!

It’s the money that prevents our politicians from acting  on remedies and even when they do, it’s the money that defeats the initiatives and defeats the individuals pursuing them.

IT”S THE MONEY. Our politicians are bought and paid for. They MUST chase huge amounts of money simply to exist. The  media is literally bought and paid for and manipulates public perception of issues not, for the public good but,thru the narrow prism of corporate interests…

Continued in today’s comments section of blog.




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STOCKS


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The Fed To The Rescue


Last Wednesday the US Fed lead a group of Central Banks with promised funding for trouble Europe. WSJ Story on this. Even China’s Central Bank helped although it said it’s same day action was not coordinated with other Central Banks. They lie. The only noticeable absent institution was the German Central bank.


How the Fed tipped its hand Monday


  • Investors411 last Monday brought to light the secret $1.2 trillion in loans to INTERNATIONAL banks over the 2008 meltdown. It’s only natural to infer that they would do the same for International or globalized banks in the EURO meltdown.
  • Of course. the globalized banking system is further interconnected through financial WMD’s – Credit Default Swaps.
  • Italy & Spain after reaching the 7% yield danger zone [where other European countries entered a “controlled defaults” on a hunk of their bond debt}  rallied on Monday for no apparent reason.
  • The single largest entity on the planet able to take action is the Fed and it was rumored to be involved, since no other less powerful entity (Germans, IMF, ECB or bailout fund) had done anything but jaw bone
  • The Fed’s role was becoming more apparent. It was only a matter of timing as to when they would PUBLICLY act.  If bond yields remain too high for too long in Italy and Spain their debt structure becomes unsustainable’

Therefore, we had reached critical mass (a meltdown was imminent as bonds crossed the 7% yield levels) It was now or never time for the Cavalry/The Fed.

Banks Get Bailed Out

People get Sold Out


The corrupt crony over leveraged phony capitalist system is getting bailed out again. The people of Europe who have an imposed recession (austerity measures) staring them in the face. Again the blackmail – If we don’t bail out the bondholders/shadow banks then the EURO will collapse and the resulting damage worse.

The threat of financial Armageddon has again forced bailouts. Behind all the bailouts is again the Puppet Master of a corrupt globalized banking system  - Ben Bernanke.

As Yogi Berra would say Déjà vu all Over Again.


Bottom Line Remains - 10s of trillions of dollars of wealth (See Ratigan Rant above) are being transfered under a phony, corrupt, over leveraged, privatize the gains and socialize the losses system. Banksters use catch phrases like “free markets” and capitalism” to hide the massive shift of money.

Germany’s DAX today up +0.54% at 6:30 AM EST

Up +1.00% at 8:45 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves


Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose to -2.58. 50DMA at +9.38 = Neutral

The MO has been an outstanding tool in helping to predict tops and bottoms. Investors411 will continue to use it as long as it works. However – This is a manipulated market so ALL technical tools are secondary. The actions of the Puppet Master are paramount.

From Last TuesdayFor now bulls rule … Bottom Line – Old Wall Street axiom

Don’t fight the Fed.

The Fed manipulated the puppet strings (some hidden others transparent) and the USA didn’t go over the cliff. Can they and their allies do the same in Europe? – They certainly picked a perfect spot to make a big move. Our MO indicator was at -100 or OMG oversold levels.


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Positions


YSL #7 is out and Paul has been updating it in the comment section of the blog.

EUO (double short the Euro currency)   1/2 position Bought at 18.60. Selling this position. Sold at 19.25 last Tuesday for @ +3.5% gain

Trades/Investments Under consideration-

  • APPL (long) AMZN (short) hedge trade.
  • GLD or DGP (double long gold)
  • SSO Double long S&P 500 – Will buy today

Woudda, Soudda Couldda entered more long positions on last Tuesday for Investors411 hypothetical portfolio. For now I settle for stocks that are trending well, but not over extended in YSL #7. Again watch for Paul’s comments on these.


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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

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From Last Tuesday (AM) – BEFORE the giant Wednesday rally – The games afoot – But for now yesterday’s transparent Fed salvo – a giant worldwide equity rally – sure makes every investor remember four words -

Don’t Fight The Fed

The giant rally on Wednesday, forces another upgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

Buy the dip. The MO has a long way to go till we reach oversold. Paul’s phrase “You snooze You Lose” is appropriate.

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CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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