R. KY Senator Mitch McConnell

Blocking Financial Reform

Republicans are considering blocking even debate on financial reform. Ewanapat thinks I’d like his comment/information/link. He’s wrong I Love it. The 3rd Fed Governor publicly has come out against the “shadow” banks that are too big to fail.

There are a few sensible Republicans (Simon Johnson and his Baseline Senerio best source on this) who are bucking Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (see yesterday’s Investors411) do nothing approach.

Taxes

Mama Jama has sent in a link to a site that reales 80% of major corporations evade taxes by having offshore accounts etc. How much does this cost you? $637 in MA and small business has to pay their full share.

Tea Party Flops

Only a 1500+ showed up for the supposed “huge” final day of tea party tour on April 15th (Tax Day) in DC yesterday. A few thousand more showed up in Boston the day before but NOT the newly elected  Republican Senator or the Republican running for governor. They called the Obama administration a “gagsta government.”

Remember we many demonstrations of 10,000 20,000 and even larger protesting the Iraq war and other left of center issues all over the country and there was almost no coverage. Yet even on the financial channel CNBC they are headlining the Tea Party protest this AM.  This is

The issue of deficits is real, but the media distortion of the Tea Party is real too.  We live in a world created by media and the thousands of past protest that get over 1500 people in DC never got the kind of coverage that the Tea Party gets. This is media bias or media manipulation.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

US markets improved a bit on Wednesday’s significant gains in above average volume = Bullish.

Google had  earnings report = an almost 4.71% fall in post market trading = Bearish

BAC (Bank of America) seems to have had blowout earnings numbers this AM up @1.5% = Bullish

Something called a Fibonacci retracement is important in worked of technical analysis. The benchmark S&P 500 is sitting just below a critical 62% retracement from its 2008 high according to analyst on CNBC. This is a strong resistance level. = Bearish

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell to +8.67 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is still in NEUTRAL territory – technically neither overbought or oversold.
• US Dollar – rose +0.36% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra – right now The Dollar Rules Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up. The dollar broke though its 50 Day Moving Average support level and next significant support and yesterday rose to just below resistance (Remember the 50 day MA is called its support on the way down and resistance on the way up).

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

I realize the TYH explanation will make some of your eyes glaze over because it is too technical. The best time to buy is when the McClellan is oversold and any trades now (McClellan Oscillator is neutral) is riskier.

TYH – (10%) (3X technology) Up well over 3% since bought. File under - If its not broken don’t fix it Mistake? – In the past Investors 411 sold 1/2 when TYH rose 3% and let the rest ride. Then I put a stop/sell order at what it was bought for or 3% below what it was bought for.  Bottom line here – selling 1/2 into any minor rally.

UWM – (5%) (does 2X small cap stocks) Bought yesterday at 37.57. Stop/loss set at 7% below what it was bought for

EWZ – (10%) (Brazil) Holding on

Monday’s are usually good days and some major tech companies report next week. So expect stocks to drift higher into the close.

Caution – Holding individual stocks into earnings is obviously dangerous – Even giants like INTC (+5%) or GOOG (-5%) can make huge moves. Smaller stocks even greater.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Dr Larry Brilliant

Historic Heath Care Legislation Passes

Whatever side your on this was HISTORIC. Congressman’s Alan Grayson’s HR 4789 (public option) was far preferable to what passed.  The NYT editorial here. An obvious political win for Democrats. If I were a Democrat congressman I would be sending out to seniors why AARP’s endorsed the bill and explaining what closing the doughnut hole in medicare coverage means. The vast amounts of hyperbole and rhetoric on both sides is obviously exaggerations.

For the shorter term impact on stocks – see Fearless Forecast and Positions sections below

“America’s Real Dream Team”

Some times Tom Friedman hits a grand slam – This editorial is one. Can you guess his “Dream Team” and why despite all the political partisanship they give us hope for the future?

How African Poverty Affects YOU

Because of the poverty in Africa (most scientist attribute a major factor – drought brought on by climate change) Africans have started to eat more meat (from monkey’s to lions) because crops have failed. This over the last few decades has led to 30+ communicable diseases transferred from animals to people and spread world wide. This arguement is often used by Epidemiologist Dr. Larry Brilliant who is the forefront of pandemic research. One of his TED award lectures.

Many of  these horrific diseases have reached our shores. If anyone dares mention how useless the UN is you tell them the impact it has had eliminating communicable diseases that affect billions around the world. (see above link)  Also when someone tell you we should cut aid to Africa or poverty does NOT impact you remember where and how AIDS & Ebola began.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Friday markets were down in significantly higher volume.  Some of this volume is due to quadruple witching/options expiring on Friday and some of this was due to momentum growing for passage of health care.

Over the last 4 months Monday’s have usually been very good for stocks.  However those or you who have followed Investors411 for a long time know sometime technicals rule and sometimes fundamentals. (see Fearless Forecast below)

Fearless Forecast for  Last Week – “up week” – All US major indexes moved higher. We lost about 1/4 to 1/3 of those gains on Friday.

Fearless Forecast for  This Week – “down week” – Health Care reform was dead and Obama/Pelosi brought it back to life. Even though Democrat Senator Chris Dodd has a very weak bill to reform shadow financing and increase transparency, Wall Street will probably be spooked by the passage of health care. Investors will reason that more rules will get put into the financial system by Obama/Pelosi and the financial sector will lead stocks lower. Like health care, financial reform of “greed based capitalism” may return to life.

Short term expect stocks to get hit.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell again significantly to -1.26 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Let’s let the dust settle – (see this week’s fearless forecast)  However, outside financial stocks, an oversold buying opportunity should present itself.  Also expect high beta - lots of the stocks on YOUR watch list – to take a hit.

If stocks do not take a hit Monday, on worries over potentially more stringent rules in financial sector, we have one strong bull market and get on the train.

Paul R -(see comments on right side of blog) has mentioned that Health Care stocks have already rallied into this weekends vote. They might “sell the news,” but in the long term heath care stocks like Express Scripts (ESRX will be on YOUR watch list tomorrow) should really benefit from the Obama/Pelosi vote.

Short term traders – ESRX will probably go elliptical over the next two days. Jump in early or buy the dip.

Health Care, Hospitals and Drug stocks should see their stocks soar. They were just handed 32 million new customers.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING