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SOTU

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George “Been Forgotten” Bush went over the top with his “your either with us or against us” proclamation.  A line he later regretted.

Remember, those of us who opposed the Iraq war were hated as un American and not Patriotic. Emotions ran high because of the terrible 911 tragedy, but now some healing  has occurred over a war that was a tragic mistake.

The heart of Obama’s speech

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We don’t begrudge financial success in this country. We admire it. When Americans talk about folks like me paying my fair share of taxes, it’s not because they envy the rich. It’s because they understand that when I get tax breaks I don’t need and the country can’t afford, it either adds to the deficit, or somebody else has to make up the difference – like a senior on a fixed income; or a student trying to get through school; or a family trying to make ends meet. That’s not right. Americans know it’s not right.

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Why are Romney’s Poll numbers Dropping?

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Romney provides the contrast to Obama SOTU and makes Bush’s “you’re either with us or against us”  milquetoast.

The following 20 second video is a perfect example of raging extremism. The kind of shouted hatred that twists the minds of so many of our fellow Americans into blind fear mongered emotionalist.  Romney -

“I’m going to Stuff it Down Obama’s Throat”

Click on photo for 20 second video

As far as timing goes Obama caught a huge break that his SOTU address came directly after Romney released just his 2012 tax returns (13.9% tax rate) that have opened a massive amount of new questions. (future editorials)

More on SOTU here and NYT here

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STOCKS

• From Last week – “We are in a low volume rally” In Paul’s Corner he points out the decrease in volume over the last five days. There have been lots of technicians who are calling for a pull back here. I tend to see 1350 1370 as the target on the S&P 500 before a significant retreat. (S&P now at 1314)

• Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.

• DAX (Germany) down this AM 0.67% at 7:00 AM EST. Italian bond’s two week long yield fall puts it well out of the 7% danger zone. But yields rose yesterday and this AM to  +6.23%. The Spanish and Italian bond reversal shows some economic stability returning to two of Europe’s largest economies and is bullish

• NFLX reports earnings after the bell. Watch comments section for details on possible combination Option Trade.

• Our government is simply overwhelmed by corporate lobbyist and money. For more Robert Reich

Read it all..

Oct 14th Investors411 Photo

Baby Bull Grows UP

Investors411 called this rally over a month ago

Lead by Emerging Market countries which broke out to new yearly highs  months ago,  US stocks , with the help of a falling dollar, TARP loans, stimulus money and quantitative easing (parts 1 &2) have developed the rally.  The major US indexes are within a few percentage point of reaching yearly highs.

Volume, which has long been AWOL in stocks has returned for the last two days. Not overwhelming volume, but enough to be encouraged.

Basically, Investors worldwide are starting to believe the globalized economic trends that existed previous to the 2008 meltdown are back in play. The US has moved higher like it did after the meltdown on cash injected into the economy. The Fed Chair Bernanke has promised more (See past blogs on QE 2)

Our baby bull has grown  up.

Foreclosures, Bubbles & Problems

Major Shadow Banks were down @ 4 to 5% yesterday on new foreclosure problems.

Once again, if you leave these crooks liars frauds unregulated and create no limiting laws they will screw YOU to the wall.  Now thousands of lawsuits are going to be brought by AG’s from 50 states because of an improper foreclosure system.

Yankee Bob says it best in the comments section “They are acting in their own selfish interests against the good of the public and they are profiting well from it.”

Obviously, we haven’t fixed the problems that caused the 2008 meltdown. If you think shadow financial culture has changed – there’s a bridge in Brooklyn I have for sale.

Compared with all the first world countries, we break more economic bubbles, have an enormously higher crime rate, are far more innovative, and provide far less for the public good.

American’s are in the NOW. We have become a nation of what can you do for me. Our former greatness was in the words of visionary President John F. Kennedy – “Ask not what your contry can do for you, but what you could do for your country.” That vision that inspired America to greatness and unity has changed.

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Note – Will post some comments on stock bubbles today

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Volume is returning to US markets. Not massive amounts but, the last two days have seen a clear increase – Bullish sign.

US markets rose into the close. Sure Looks like some entities got word of outstanding MSFT & AMD earnings results

Shadow Banks – Many of the major shadow banks took big hits yesterday on the foreclosure mess. BAC (Bank of America) down -5.19%. Yet overall stocks held up well. Another bullish sign.

However,  if Shadow Banks fall again today, that would be confirmation of yesterday fall.

• Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell -o.55% yesterday. The inverse correlation is not always perfect. But yesterdays fall gives bull more amo for today.  Overall trend of falling dollar trend for US stocks is = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets, exporting countries] Rose  +0.76% yesterday An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall. A very slight stutter and now moving up. Trend  = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to +15.56. Momentum is with the stock bulls but location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Lots of room (MO)and reasons (BDI, USD, Earnings Reports, volume) to move higher.

Interesting that only a slight decline sent the MO down further than a previous day’s rally sending it higher.

“Overall – the same bullish pattern dominates.” Mantra foe week

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity).
• SSO (2x what S&P does)
• TYH (3x tech stocks)

The obvious strategy with SSO & TYH is that in a bull run they are going to clobber the benchmark S&P 500.

On dips feel comfortable adding of the ETF’s in POSITION section. Also adding to SSO & TYH.

It would take probably a massive 400 point move in Dow today to reach overbought levels. Highly highly unlikely.

Check out Paul R’s always enlightening updates on individual stocks and sectors in the comments sections.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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Disaster Capitalism

2008′s Economic shadow bank meltdown was a chance for American based companies to shed US workers and hire new cheaper labor in the emerging markets.  This might be termed a form of “Disaster Capitalism.” Great for emerging markets, but obviously harmful to American working class.

“Disaster Capitalism” is a term used by Naomi Kline in her controversial book The Shock Doctrine. In its essence, for our current situation it is about how large American companies/wealthy individuals have used the 2008 meltdown to transfer additional American jobs and economic resources to emerging markets.

Bottom Line – You, fortunately, lived through an era where America dominated economically. Within a decade this will no longer be true as globalization is stampeding throughout the world. We are experiencing that shift now.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Rally on below average volume (volume is also down @ 30% from year before) Bad news Friday was no obstacle to rising stocks. Employment numbers, an enforced foreclosure halt, and warning by somewhat important tech company NVLS did not hinder a rally. This is a bullish sign

Flat jobless rate means little to most US stocks.  Of course if unemployment were to increase this might hurt stocks. This is doubtfull since the Obama stimulus plan added from 1.7 million to 3.3 million jobs according to non parisan C.B.O. Globalized US equities are no longer dependent on the US maintaining a robust GDP. In a globalized world the growth of emerging markets like Brazil, India China etc. is what’s keeping stocks afloat.

Fundamental Outlook – “The concept of a double-dip recession has been replaced with slow and steady improvement, and even if we don’t get it, we have a Federal Reserve that’s ready to step in and support the rally,” said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jeffery’s.

This is basically the view Investors411 has had since we upgraded the long term outlook from NEUTRAL to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell -0.26% Friday. Since last report down over 0.50% For stocks falling dollar trend is = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.28% Friday  An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall. After short consolidation, looks like bulls are back.  = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Rose to to +21.47. Still lots of room to move higher or lower. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Same short term outlook holds – “Still lots of room for bulls to move higher before overbought on MO. Still lots of room for dollar lower before it reaches a a major support level.“

From Wednesday – “Sure looks like we have a runaway bull market. SPX at 1161 with 1221 as this year’s high and major resistance level”. S&P 500 now at 1165.

The Market manipulators should buy the dip till we reach major support for the dollar, or resistance for the S&P 500. The dollar is the still key index to watch.

Earnings Season blooms this week. – If we do get a continued set of bad earnings forecasts then this would trump the above outlook

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity).
• SSO (2x what S&P does)

Looking to add emerging markets or Gold on dips.

Check out Paul R’s always useful updates on individual stocks and sectors in the comments sections.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Globalization of US Elections

Foreign Funding of US Elections

• Money is easily manipulated and obviously many US corporate entities make the bulk of their profits abroad.  Now they make huge investments in US elections.  For many compnies it is in their interest to see countries like China manipulate their currency and hire more foreign workers. These corporations now can donate any amount of $ they want.
• Wealthy Individuals can set up their own dummy companies, have foreign investors donate, and they too can donate any amount of hidden money they want.
• Latest is the US Chamber of Commerce who has many “foreign companies” as members who pay at least $10,000 to join. Chamber lobbied for foreign oil company BP is best example. Now Chamber  using foreign money (this is illegal) to run attack adds.

Bottom Line – The role of foreign investments in US elections is increasing. Obviously major trend of globalization is having an impact on everything from jobs to elections. Just as obviously this has a negative impact on US jobs and our Democracy.

Comments Sections

Lively debate on the Tea Party going on and Paul R keeping traders updated on stocks. YOUR stock list up 3.83% yesterday

Last blog for week – Happy trading – Back Monday

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Dollar down big time = stocks up big time.

Yesterday it was Japan, but everyone is printing money from Europe to our Fed. Collectively, they all fear deflation and are printing money to solve economic troubles. Downside is inflation ahead. Why the dollar is falling is the Fed’s printing press which has been hard at work since the 2008 meltdown. The Fed had made it clear it will do whatever it takes.

Enjoy the manipulate ride.

Volume was slightly above average, which is not saying much considering its down over 30% from last year. The retail investor is largely gone from this rally.

Earnings season starts Thursday with Alcoa reporting and bloom next week. Earnings usually take over as catalyst for stocks.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell a massive -o.89% yesterday breaking though a weak support level and establishing a new 8+ month long low.   For stocks falling dollar trend is = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose a dramatic +3.67% Monday.  An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall. After short consolidation, looks like bulls are back.  = Neutral/Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]   Rose to to +20.22. Still lots of room to move higher or lower. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Still lots of room for bulls to move higher before overbought on MO. Still lots of room for dollar lower before it reaches a a major support level.

Today is one of those confirmation of the rally days.

Sure looks like we have a runaway bull market. SPX at 1161 with 1221 as this year’s high and major resistance level.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity).
• SSO (2x what S&P does)  Still held onto last 1/2 of SSO. But will place another 2% trailing stop loss today.

Sold or took over profits in 1/2 of USO & EWS yesterday. USO = 10+% profit & EWS= 12-% They were both over extended and I frequently take profits after making 10% and let the rest ride. Will buy back in on dip in these and other emerging markets ETF’s. See Positions section for more info on everything from YOUR stock List to ETF’s

Paul R reports YOUR stock list again clobbered the benchmark S&P 500 and gained +3.83% yesterday. See comments section of blog.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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Why The Bull Are Stampeding?

Massive Manipulation & Economic Mega Tends.

History

• Globalization mega trend provides cheap and now educated labor force. Energy rich (mega trend) countries benefit from rise in prices due to dwindling supplies and growing globalized demand.
• To keep up with emerging markets US financials (shadow banks) cheat and over leverage the system. US consumers also encouraged to acquire massive debt. Instead of calling this keeping up with the Jones’s call it keeping up with the Wong’s.
• System wide  meltdown for countries believing in casino capitalism - commonly called free market capitalism.
• Attempts to bring transparency to markets failed. Attemps to make too big to fail over leveraged shadow financials go out of existance – failed.. At best weak guidelines set in place. Another opaque financial system begins to build.
• Some Americans realize that jobs are going overseas and and a wealthy oligarchy and major US companies are making a ton of $ off this system, that also brings lower cost goods to USA.  No jobs, Gordon Gecko’s in control,privatized gains & socialized risk, Main Street screwed, 1 ib 7 Americans now in poverty – everyone angry.

Now

• China as well as some other emerging markets manipulate their currency. Paulson/Bush & Geithner/Obama throw hissy fits, but do little/nothing. Why - because major US industries and industrialist are making a killing (From WalMart to Apple to Caterpillar) off of slave/cheap labor in emerging markets that are manipulated to stay low relative to USA. They make $ off of China’s manipulation.
• US Fed dumps trillions of dollars to financial institutions in USA that further finance casino capitalism. This too is obvious currency manipulation. Dollar falls (less valuable because more $ are printed) and stocks move higher.
• Most recently added – Fed dumping or printing money scheme is the PMOC (see below) Fed promises to do whatever it takes to keep US economy primed.
• Potential Gridlock in congress means shadow system that benefits Chinese dictators, Oil rich countries/dictatorships, a wealthy oligarchy continues. Manipulated by fear, vanishing American middle class is for the most part clueless as to what’s happening,

Stocks

• The return to casino capitalism and flood of money into US markets means manipulators (hedge funds, BB?HFT’s, Sovereign wealth funds etc.) are overjoyed.
• Retail investors sense another bubble building, but don’t understand what’s happening. Why are jobs not coming back? – Obviously they are going abroad.
• Stocks of the big companies/industries that profit from abroad and emerging markets soar because the manipulators are pouring money into them.

Bottom Line - We retail investors are just insignificant players in a massive attempt to manipulate the forces of globalization and dwindling energy supplies. Of course another bubble is building. Manipulation now has long term consequences. As long as you understand how the money flows you can invest accordingly.

Thanks, for the complements on the market calls this weekend. All I’m doing is watching money flows described above.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. CNBC’s Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

US Markets

Another massive rally in weak below average volume, which is also well below last years volume.  The rally is real but it is being run by BB/HFT’s, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Hedge Funds and other manipulators. It’s also being juiced by our Fed that is and promises to PRINT or “do whatever  it takes to keep the economy going.”

The single most important new factor to look at is our Fed’s PMOC pouring more and more $$$$$$$ into the economy. Another 3.8 billion last Friday.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell  -0.77%,  The inverse correlation between the dollar & stocks seemed to have broke down earlier this week, but Friday made up for all that.  Trend for stocks = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell  - Friday. Two week BDI fall. After 8 week bull run trend seems to be changing to = Bearish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to +11.14 yesterday. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

The MO – is our #1 forecasting & when to buy/sell tool. Even after a the huge rally Friday the MO is still just above zero and just below its 50 DMA at 15+. Clearly Neutral which gives the bulls room to run even higher.

Thursday the MO reached -20 and , as predicted, this was a major support level.

The Dollar – broke down though major support last week. Even though the daily inverse relationship between a falling dollar and a rising US stock market did not match up the weekly did. It was a/the primary cause behind the bulls taking charge..

Tea Leaves – It the past year whenever the dollar has taken such a large move up or down it usually takes a few days to consolidate or move in opposite direction.  This time I’m not so sure.

Here’s the Bull’s formula – Fed prints/pumps money into economy. Huge financial institutions get that $ for almost nothing. Lots of the $ goes to stocks and eventually ends up abroad.  The more $  that get printed the more it forces dollar down and this too makes stocks go up. (US goods cost less abroad) Bulls run till we get overbought.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Longer Term positions -

• EWS (Singapore) 2% trailing stop loss on 50% of position/ 4% trailing stop/loss on the rest.
• USO (price of oil/commodity).
• SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I now have a 3% trailing stop on this trade.
• TYH (3X technology) Bought at market open for 33.48. For today have stop/loss at 33.49.

I would be buying some of the individual stocks on YOUR Stock List, but just do not have the time. See Paul R’s comments.

Also as someone just wrote in this AM buying most of or the whole list of ETF’s or YOUR Stock List (also consider high dividend stocks) is a way to go instead of picking a few from the lists. (more on this later – see comments section of blog)

I know everyone just wants to buy and hold for years. Just can’t recommend holding for longer than a cycle of the MO (McClellan Oscillator).  Mostly a cycle from oversold to overbought (@-60 to +60) lasts from one to three months. Sometimes shorter.

Remember, we are now in a bullish cycle and therefore, elevated the buy/sell criteria a bit on the MO. (see past investors411) Watch the dolar and its invese relationship to stocks.

Traders

From Friday – “This is again one of those no guts no glory moments.” Bulls still in charge and have lots of room according to MO to move higher. Buying dips of stocks/ETF’s that are not too overbought on dips.

Investors

From Friday – Those of you with little exposure to stocks “may want to nibble.” You can still nibble on the dip if willing to accept risk.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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The Dying Democracy –  We the People

• Tea Party just got $1,000,000 from an anonymous donor
• The hidden money “stampeding” in elections from Time magazine (Thanks to Ewanapat for this reference)
• Fox News $1,000,000 contribution to Republicans
• Recent Supreme Court decision that opened the door for Corporations and other entities to unlimitedly fund propaganda against any political candidate.

Do you really believe your measly one vote and restricted financial contribution has the power of a $1,000,000 dollar anonymous contribution in an election?

Wake up and smell the coffee!

• Obama caved in to the Insurance monopoly on health care because they give fat checks
• McCain has gone mute on campaign finance reform because this oligarchy is behind him
• Islamophobia is flourishing because the weapons industry’s has massive financial contribution power .

In Alaska and Delaware massive amounts of money came into tea party candidates and they came from 20 to 30 % down in polls in 6 weeks to beat the establishment Republican candidates with a blizzard of negative adds. In Alaska the known amount of $ that came in (almost all from outside the state) was over $600,000 or $more than $10 a vote. This does not count all those anonymous negative adds.

This blog will continue to be The Resistance for those who want to terminate American democracy. Yes, I’ll send in my limited transparent contribution, speak out for we the people, and vote.

Mega trend - vanishing middle/working class in America. Growing working/middle class in emerging markets. Loss of democratic values.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term of the Day – Overextended - This is when a stock, sector or index goes up too far too fast, in usually increased volume, It simply runs out of buyers and has to consolidate. There are many ways to measure this. Investors411, for bullish stocks. uses the distance a stock is from its 50 Day Moving Average (blue line on charts)

Simply by looking at one of the many charts referenced in Investors411 you can see how far away (space between) the 50 Day Moving Average is from the price. The more volume there is adds to its over extension – more buyers piling in.  You would be chasing a winner and it is better to wait for some sort of pull back or consolidation to invest.

US Markets

Again thanks to Paul R for analysis of YOUR Stock LIst.  14.4% gains! Will try to put together another stock list after earnings season has matured. (earnings can radically alter the price of stocks) Look for Paul’s in Comments section of blog.

Fed continues to print and inject $ in to the economy – $2 billion yesterday. Just what are the banks doing with this $? Who knows? We have a less than transparent financial system. Bottom Line here is the worry about deflation. Fed sure looking like it wants to push dollar lower.

“Stocks won’t crash unless earnings do” from Seeking Alpha author. Fed, sure looks like its manipulating to get a good earning season from globalized US firms.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell significant  -0.76% yesterday breaking a major support level = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell  -2.97% yesterday. 8th down day in a row. After 8 week bull run trend seems to be changing to = Bearish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell  to +3.87 yesterday. Trend is bearish Location of index as far as buying/selling or overbought/oversold = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Something’s big is happening. The dollar and stocks for three months have had almost a 90% inverse correlation. The dollar drops, US goods (exports) cost less abroad and therefore profits rise, and stocks rise. The dollar, falling almost 2% in two days & breaking a support level should have had stocks exploding higher. It didn’t.

A weak dollar also shows a fear of weakens in the American economy relative to others.

Currency trading is a huge market, that every major entity tries to manipulate. However because of its size its hard to manipulate for long in an open market. The Chinese (and some others) basically have a closed market on their currency.

Bottom Line - When a long term pattern breaks down it almost always means change of some type. Fundamentally,lower dollar = higher profits for US exporters is going to help globalized companies, but now the soundness of the American economy is also being questioned.  This is Bearish

The MO – In tech speak this chart has broken down from what’s called a “head and shoulders” trading pattern, Usually means there is more downside risk & area around -20 on MO is now a new support level.

Bottom Line - Gold is historically a hedge against a falling dollar, The dollar melting rapidly through support levels also shows perceived strength in Emerging Markets economies,

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions -

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity)- fall of dollar negatively impacting this.
• SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I have a 2% trailing stop on this trade

Because of falling dollar looking to add to long term holding in emerging markets (see POSITION section of blog) Only caution is do NOT chase stocks that are too over extended from 5oDMA  Would like to see MO reach @-20 before nibbling.

Biggest mistake Investors411 has made this year was talking about but not buying GLD (ETF for gold) earlier this year.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Bada Bing, Bada Bang, Bada Boom!

YOUR Stock List gained +14.4% vs. a gain of +1.5% for the benchmark S&P 500. Just like YOUR first stock list earlier this year we crushed our benchmark index over the last 6+ weeks. (more below)

Fear Mongering/Globalization/Jobs

The biggest plate of warm turds being fear mongered to the US public through the Tea Party and like minded folks is that if we don’t extend tax cuts on the ruling oligarchy job growth will suffer.

Investors411 readers already know that jobs are being outsourced abroad through “scaling”.

Now, lets take a look at some figures from when we had the massive tax cut to the rich in 2000 to today. Figures are from the Financial Times and if you would like a video presentation check out Cenk Uyger’s presentation (sorry short add before 4 minute presentations)

1. $1.3 trillion in tax cuts for the rich since 2000.(not compounded) Result – we loose 7.3 million jobs.
2. 1950 to 1990 we have 3.5 to 7.4% real growth Compare - 2000 to now 1% real growth.
3. 1950 to 1990 investment in equipment & software 5.7% to 9.9% Compare – 2000 to now 1.9%

So where did all that money go?

1. Emerging markets grew 120% Compare to -6% for the USA (FSCI emerging market stock index)
2. US investment abroad in 2000 $1.3 trillion Compare to now $3.2 trillion

This means that the our weathy oligarchy spent $1.9 trillion (much more than just their $1.3 tax cut dollars) in creating jobs jobs jobs in China India and throughout the globalized economy.

Add to this figure Shadow banks money going abroad, TARP money going abroad, and US corporations building and investing abroad.  The American working class is getting crushed by our corporate oligarchy.

Postscript – If you like you can officially call me a hypocrite. Because for 6 years I’ve been telling anyone who’d listen to invest in emerging markets. If you go to the POSITIONS section at top of blog and click on it. Scroll down and you will find a list of emerging market recommended ETF’s to invest in. We have made money together

My only defense is every major US company is globally connected to some degree. Even smaller companies are at least indirectly connected to globalization.

But the Bottom Line is – Tax those who profit most off globalization and use it to help the US working class who are getting clobbered.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

US Markets

Very Strange – Usually the big rally day (2 days ago) has more volume than the confirmation day that follows. We did basically hold onto the gains so the rally is confirmed. However this and what’s happened in the dollar (see below) are breaking usual patterns.

Bada Bing Bada Bang, Bada Boom

Paul R has computed the results of YOUR Stock List (more info in  POSITION section at top of blog)

“14.4% UP! Your Stock List (based on a dollar weighted index) from 8/3 to the close on 9/20! S&P 500 was up about 1.5% at the same time. PCLN has enjoyed a 48% gain during this time and it skews the return of the whole list a bit, but the dollar weighted chart buys an equal dollar amount of each stock so PCLN doesn’t effect the chart too much.

Here are the actual PERCENTAGE gains of the stock on the list from the 8/3 close to the 9/20 close.

AAPL 8.37
BIDU 7.75
SAM 1.95
UFS 4.39
F -1.59
GMCR 18.70
HMIN 12.60
IMAX 6.57
PCLN 48.91
RADS 25.46
SWKS 17.87
UPS 1.02
VCI -3.81

After yesterdays pop, many of these stocks “may” pause to refresh for a day or two (maybe). When a stock pauses to refresh like this, and takes off again this may give a chance to buy.”

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, crashed  -1.10% yesterday. It ended the day right above key support level. = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a -2.51%yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. 7th down day in a row, with rate of fall decreasing. After 8 week bull run trend could be changing to bearish,= Neutral/Bearish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell  to +23.67 yesterday.  A huge drop considering how small the fall was on the NYSE. Back just above 50 DMA/ support level which is at 19.03 Trend = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Something’s big is happening. The dollar fell a huge -1.10% and this usually translates into a sizable stock rally. Yet equities went nowhere. We are just above major support for the dollar. Is the inverse relationship between stocks & the dollar breaking down? Is the dollar @ to crash and burn? This answer is above my pay level.

Reality is there a whole lot of major institutions doing a whole lot of market manipulation (hedge funds, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, BB/HFT’s etc.)

One clear pattern/trend developing – We keep bumping up close to +60 on the MO & stocks can’t get beyond this now strong resistance level. It might be that stocks are just too overbought to move higher.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions -

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity)
• SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I have a 3% trailing stop on this trade

If, we get up over +60 on the MO and  the Dow/major indexes rally – that would be a selling or shorting point.

Recommendations -For everyone who uses trailing stops on trades -It may be time to tighten them. If you’ve made profits over the last month, no one ever went broke by cashing some of them in. That’s what the Tea Leaves seem to be saying.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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Why All the Fireworks?

• YOUR Stock List was up +7.6% while the S&P was down -1.9% (see below)
• Enter Investors411 in Google and this site comes up #1
• Happy Rosh Hashanah/New Year

A Little Redistribution

Would a little redistribution of the wealth really be so bad? The middle class is hurting and wants to work. We need to acknowledge the crisis brought on by globalization and how its impacting American workers. (Major topic of many past Investors411) Yes, the Shadow Banking meltdown made everything worse, but again its the middle class that’s has also felt the most pain in socializing the over leveraging at shadow financial institutions.

A message to all you wealthy Americans that have profited from the decades of globalization and those who don’t want to part with a dime to help. We’re All One America. Right now that middle class is hurting. We do need to keep middle class tax cuts and perhaps even offer more. But it’s your turn to step up and help.

Today offering a modest proposal for a new top tax bracket (those making over $410,000) by Annie Lowrey and what it would mean. Lowrey doesn’t ask for the tax rate to return to what it was under Ronald Reagan, but what it was for the weathiest 1% under Bill Clinton.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Volume was still below average. The NASDQ was just below average indicating a few traders/investors outside the BB/HFT community nibbled on technology and probably smaller cap stocks.

This lack of volume is just further indication of the power of the BB/HFT traders or the % of the market they control. It’s not your fathers or even YOUR market anymore.  In the past Investors411 have discussed the impact of BB/HFT on trading and will continue to do so.

More Investors411 Guidelines

• The Calendar -on top will take you to any past post of Investors411. Just click on the date and the blog for that day will appear
• Search Box – Just type in a word and if it was tagged at top of blog the last post on that person/subject will come up. Example type in Kahneman then hit search - Bada Bing up will come one of my favorite blogs on the father of behavioral economics and some other outstanding individuals
• HELP, STRATEGY, OVERVIEW & POSITIONS - are all listed at top of blog and offer an array of different information (more later)
• Comments Section - Appears to the right and sparks fly on stocks, economics, trends and politics. Click on the writers Name, Initials and you’ll get the whole post.
• Financial Charts and Blog Roll –  Too the far right are a list of  charts of some indexes & ETF’s that Investors often refers to. They are from Stockcharts.com. A excellent site for gathering free technical data. The Blog Roll contains some frequently used sources.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell -0.28% higher yesterday. Dollar in 4 week long trading range. For stocks = Neutral/Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.95% yesterday. After slight four day hesitation back in rally mode. Remember this is especially relevant (in this case bullish) to those countries that have an export surplus = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +30.84 yesterday. Clearly above zero and within 29 points of the NOT drawn in the sand line of being oversold.(+60) = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The dollar is still the big dog wagging the stock market tail. Flat consolidation pattern holding means the same for stocks. We did have a dash of bullish news for stocks as the dollar fell a bit yesterday, but until consolidation pattern holds – so will stocks.

Considering how strong the run higher was last week in points, we should have another push even higher. Volume is just not as relevent to major indexes because of the BB/HFT domination and the lack of individual investors. Till the MO gets oversold case for bulls strong.

Repeat – UUP the dollar ETF is what to focus on for stock market direction if you are an active trader.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

From Paul “With today’s strong action, “Your Stock List” is up +7.6% since Aug 3. The S&P 500 down -1.9%.” Lots more if you click o the aboved referenced link

You sent in the stock picks that make up YOUR stock List. Give yourself a round of applauds. Paul & I went over the list and did eliminate some candidates.

You can find the complete YOUR Stock List located by clicking on the POSITIONS word at top of blog and scrolling down. Also Paul R has frequent commentary on these and other market news which is especially helpful for active traders. See comments section of blog.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Demonstration in world’s largest Islamic democracy/country Indonesia where they allow Christian, Buddhist and many other religious faiths to openly pratice. They also have a woman president & a stock market at a new high.

Burn the Koran?

Another  direct follow up to the fear mongering surrounding the Islamic Center in NYC is a pastor in Florida who is going to burn Korans on 9/11 – “It’s International Burn a Koran Day .” General Petraeus from BBC – “This act will endanger US troop.” It will also be  a recruitment mana (gift) from heaven for any Islamic radical that will be broadcast all over the world.

The trend is the growing use of fear mongering on an Islamophobic US public in political seasons. Far right politicians have pushed this issue from Palin to Beck and even some notable Democrats like Harry Reid. Obviously, this trend also benefits those that manufacture weapons

Globalization* & US Education

Why is American education falling or even failing relative to the rest of the world?

Capitalist want to make money. To make that money they needed an increasing educated/smarter workforce to solve problems and deal with technological innovation. Up to, say 1980, that workforce came from US education which major American companies supported.

Now, because of globalization, global American companies no longer have to invest in US education. They simply use use the cheaper educational workforce abroad. “They don’t even have to invest a penny.”

In fact, over the last three decades American capitalists have developed their own think tanks to directly challenge American universities and education system  like American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation.  For more James Kwak at the the Baseline Senerio

* Globalization is one of the key mega trends dominating the world economically. For more click on OVERVIEW at top of blog

Simply put, an Investors411 mantra and Kwak conclusion – “it is the interests of big corporations that determine government policy in the United States.”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Its natural for volume to rise after Labor Day weekend.

Housing problem has deeply worried many economists. It’s also become a political football two months before the election.  Back in 2008, Investors411′ mantra was & still is the financial meltdown has caused problems “far, far, far, far, far” worse that predicted.

The NASDQ has “gapped” higher 2 of the last 4 trading days at the open. 3 gap higher almost alway means markets are too overbought to continue the move.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, of course, fell  a -0.54% Friday.  Threatens to break down through support levels of three week long consolidation pattern. = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.45% Friday. A 5 week rally the BDI had flattened out. Now starting to rise again. = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +48.06 Friday Momentum obviously with bulls, but we are reaching overbought territory. The MO did spend one day above +9o in late July, but over the last year  the other 4 highs were from + 60 to +80. Therefore running out of room for stocks to move higher = Neutral/Bearish

Reading Tea Leaves

Emerging Markets are on a roll (see POSITIONS Section of blog for corresponding ETF’s) Almost all are relatively outperforming US indexes EWS (Singapore is almost at new yearly high, IFN (India),TUR (Turkey, & EIOD (Indonesia did close at highs. The BDI’s rally is confirmation or a forecast of the positive fundamental growth story of these countries.

US Sock Indexes are being driven higher by a weaker dollar which could break down through its support level today. But we are running out of upside “wiggle room” and almost overbought. There’s only 12 points between current MO at +48 and over bought conditions are +60.

Therefore its time to start thinking about taking profits on long positions in a major rally.  If/when we reach +60 or +80 I will be using the short ETF’s in a rally. (See POSITIONS section at top of blog for more)

Fundamental overview of world Economy.

The obvious sub trend brought about by globalization is the economic deterioration of the US & Europe economically  vs the economic rise of emerging markets and energy rich countries (peak oil mega trend – see Overview section of blog).

Will the emerging markets grow fast enough to pull the USA & Europe out of the Great Recession?

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

We are coming closer to the time to take profits or consider short ETF’s

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!