Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
September 12, 2011

The Civil War

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Over this week Investors411 is going to do more than explore the class warfare in the USA.

We are going to present more of the trends and dynamics between what makes an economy grow and what makes it collapses. Democracy itself may be at stake as we experience another banking crisis that has its over leveraged roots in 2008 and is now emanating from Europe.

Small Business


Obama has just proposed $250 billion in tax break/incentives to the engine of jobs growth – small business. Last week’s statistic – 1,600,000 jobs created by small business vs. 50,000 by big business. A no brainer piec of legislation.

Moody’s said Obama’s job proposal would produce 1.9 million jobs.

  • That, 1.9 million unemployed Americans to work,
  • 1.9 million Americans not dependent on some form of welfare
  • growing American small business creating American commerce which is a jobs multiplier
  • growing American small business paying taxes because they are making more $$$

Why this won’t happen.

  • It would lower unemployment and increase Obama’s chances of reelection – Republicans will therefore stall.
  • It does NOT help the giant conglomerates who outsource their jobs overseas.
  • The Too big to fail and other major US Companies are mega lobbyists who rule almost all Republicans and many Democrats by controlling media and campaign contributions.

You will see congress vote on a tax break for mega overseas corporate profits before you will see them help the engine of growth – small business in the USA.

Much More on The Civil War to come

Small Businesses, Taxpayers Get Shafted
2009-09-06-SmallbusinessloansHP9609.jpg

________________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.69% up
NASDQ -2.42% ave
S&P 500 -2.67% up
Russell 2000 -3.02% -

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Market Analysis

Focus on TechnicalsFundamentalsHFT’s

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week/week+

  • We had a bit above average volume for the first time in two weeks. Major indexes from Europe to the US took a big hit. Increased volume = Bearish
  • Headline - Stocks Hit hard As Eurozone Fears Spread Through Market LINK
  • RepeatTechnically we have formed a double bottom for most major indexes Now major indexes have formed short term higher highs. (see charts of major indexes on right side of blog). Traditional technical analysis says this is bullish. However, fundamentals control what’s happening in the long run and the HFT are dominating stocks technically. Any breakdown through the double bottom is bearish Benchmark S&P at 1154 and 1120 is the major support level.

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

  • The PCR rose  to 1.34 (Above 1.20 is getting Bearish and below 0.80 is getting Bullsih)(last two years the highest for PCR is @1.50 and lowest @0.60 - anything approach these levels shows change likely For more information on PCR LINK)  We are right at the start of OMG there is a lot of put positions out there level. Too many short/put positions almost always means a reversal is coming.= Bearish/Neutral

The McClellan Oscillator

  • (MO) Fell to to -34.02 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought) We have just started into oversold territory. Somewhat overbought = Bullish/Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Market momentum is obviously to the downside. Fundamentals matter. In this case its the news coming out of Europe - CNBC & WSJ However both the MO and the PCR are telling us that we are getting ready for at least a short term reversal.

Longer Term Outlook

month, months,

  • Repeat Same old mantra - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May. For the Fed to act significantly – inject more liquidity - I’m afraid we need to see stocks do worse for that to happen

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

LONGER TERM POSITIONS

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

Traders - If we get another strong move down today I would consider going long in a leveraged index ETF.  Technically, because we are so oversold and approaching support, any dip down close to support should hold.  It’s a risk, and you could get overwhelmed by some bank failure in Europe. However, if we get that MO to -60 and below we should get at least a technical bounce.

Investors - It’s sure better to nibble when the stock market is 20% down than when it was higher.  The Caution, of course is the breakdown through support for the major indexes. My best read of Tea Leaves is that it would take a major bank meltdown for this to happen. FT Link on this possibility.  A downgrade is NOT a meltdown, but there is risk.

Greece is going to default at some time and in some way. They have an interest rate near 50% on their 2 year gov’t bond. We have an under 2%interest rate. That 50% rate is unsustainable for Greece. The problem is derivatives taken on the debt and the shadow financial system, like Lehman and so many others, make this crisis worse. Many want this to happen sooner rather than later so we can stop twisting in the wind.

Bottom LineIf we have another meltdown today, technicals will show an overbought market. If we get to OMG oversold levels the technical Tea Leaves put the odds even more in YOUR favor to Buy.

Paul has said this is not a market to be in. He’s right unless you are protected (Puts or ETF’s that short the market) But, when everyone else has panicked there is no one left to sell. It’s hard to call a bottom exactly, but the Investors411 portfolio will nibble and risk a long position in a leveraged ETF if oversold and better OMG oversold conditions exist.

Positions

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock –a 14% dividend

pot of gold

GLD (Long Gold ETF) Bought at 167.05 last week - Sold 1/2 for 180.4 (see comments section of blog on Friday) Almost +8% profit.

From yesterday - There are simply too many calls out there on GLD. Ripe for a bear raid by HFT’s. Investors411 also likes to take a 5 to 10% profit and let the rest ride. Last reason – Gold should have gone way up as stocks went way down.

There is a major political battle going on over gold. Sides

  • The other side is China (plus other countries) and the Tea Party/Ron Paul who want gold to be the standard for the world.

Xinhua, China’s official news agency“International supervision over the issue of U.S. dollars should be introduced and a new, stable, and secured global reserve currency may also be an option to avert a catastrophe caused by any single country.”

There are some major government/Fed/Commodity Exchange manipulators of gold prices. Often when gold declines in the USA you will see it bounce back in Asia overnight. This is probably due to Chinese intervention.

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts half of dividend stocks I own. I also use leveraged ETF’s TZA & SDS to minimize downside risk or make a profit. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I will be purchasing additional YSL #5 stocks when we have a lower MO.*

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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September 9, 2011

Finally Jobs

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Obama and Jobs

Finally Obama hit it out of the Park on Jobs.

Investors411 has been calling for this for years and Obama delivered last night.

LINK to “A Powerful Obama Speech” by often critic Mohamed el Erian (PIMCO’s #2)

LINK to Editorial by Howard Fineman for details. Major point(s)

  • $447 Billon plan with central feature a $250 Billion for small business.
  • Last year small business created 1,600,000 jobs in the USA vs. 50,000 for major corporations - LINK to Joe Sestak editorial
  • Investors4111 readers all know major corporations (from shadow banks to Apple computer) take every opportunity possible (especially a crisis) to shift jobs overseas.

More people working = more tax revenues = lower deficits.

You have to spend money to make money

This should have been Obama focus in his 2010 state of the Union – Not the deficit and government reduction. My only concern is too little and too late.


_________________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.04% low
NASDQ -0.78% low
S&P 500 -1.06% low
Russell 2000 -2,05% -

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Market Analysis

Focus on TechnicalsFundamentalsHFT’s

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week/week+

  • Willing to bet that now 80% of all trading is programed trading of HFT’s and/or pros battling each other in day and swing trading.
  • Repeat - Technically we have formed a double bottom for most major indexes Now major indexes have formed short term higher highs. (see charts of major indexes on right side of blog). Traditional technical analysis says this is bullish. However, fundamentals control what’s happening in the long run and the HFT are dominating stocks technically.

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

  • The PCR rose  to 1.14 (Above 1.20 is getting Bearish and below 0.80 is getting Bullish)(last two years the highest for PCR is @1.50 and lowest @0.60 – anything approach these levels shows change likely For more information on PCR LINK) 0.89 two days ago and today;s 1.14 = Neutral

The McClellan Oscillator

  • (MO) Fell to to -0.58 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought)  = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Our forecasting tools give no advantage to bulls or bears. There is some slight momentum with bulls because of the double bottom and series of higher  highs. NEUTRAL is the key word. Perhaps the calm before the storm. DAX – German stock market (already in bear market territory) down over 1% at 7:30 EST. – Bearish

Longer Term Outlook

month, months,

  • Repeat Same old mantraMay 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May. For the Fed to act significantly – inject more liquidity - I’m afraid we need to see stocks do worse for that to happen

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Detective

.

.

“Demystifying  and Discussing  Simple Option Strategies”

by JS

CALLS

.

.

Buying calls are a way of taking more upside risk while limiting your downside.

SDS is a contrarian ETF that goes up 2x when the S&P goes down. It’s a decent stock to buy during this “fear” market, as protection.

The price this week was $24.56. To buy 100 shares costs $2456 + comm.
Buying this option:
-SDS111022C25 ( Oct 22,2011 @$25 ) costs $2.10 per share = $210 + com per contract. Your downside is $210.  This option is a bet that the S&P will go down dramatically by Oct 22.  SDS at the market bottom of last year July 2010, SDS was $38; at bottom of market in ’08, SDS reached $120.
Projected profit if S&P reaches these lows again:

You will start making a profit on this call if the S&P falls 4.5%. If it doesn’t fall 4.5% from the current price by Oct. 22, you will lose your
investment.

$38 – $25 (the strike price) = $13 – cost of call option  $2.10 + comm = @$11 per share or $1,100 profit per contract.

If SDS reaches highs of 2008, $120, you’ll profit $120-25 (strike price) = 95- 2.10 (cost of option) = 92.99 per share x 100 sh =  $9,299 per contract.

So on $210 bet,  one can profit $1100, up to $9299  if market reaches the recent past lows.  I use these options  as a hedge against stock I’m holding, as insurance. My loss is limited to the $210, my “insurance” premium. Let’s me sleep at night.


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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

LONGER TERM POSITIONS

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

Until the Fed makes a commitment to more liquidity, its hard to add any unprotected long term position other than buying GLD on dip.

Strategy OutlinedA rough outlineThe basic strategy is to buy the dip. Most crucial to this is our MO chart. Start buying when the MO dips to @-60 and add to positions if the MO goes lower. If the MO reaches +60 you either sell if still holding a position or short stocks (use puts or ETF’s that short stocks) This situation (@+/- 60) has occurred a bit less than once a month over last two years

Depending on what you invest in and if your an investor or trader you hold or sell. Examples –

  • Shorter term traders – Sell 1/2 after 5 to 10% gain and can let the rest ride and become a longer term investment or until the MO approaches +60
  • Shorter term traders – YSL#5 – Is more suitable for your investment style
  • Shorter term Investors – Should use Puts and calls to leverage risk. Also a “protection” option for longer term investors in bad markets.
  • Longer term Investors – Should only invest if the long term outlook is NEUTRAL. Your chances of success are better with a CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH outlook.
  • Longer Term Investors – More likely to use Dividend stocks/ETF, but can use YSL’s.

Investors411 has just started using the PCR as an investment tool and will advise on how it mixes with the MO.

  • For now extremes in the PCR (+1.50 & – 0.60) are sell and buy point.
  • Remember how these charts (MO & PCR) mix and the Long Term Outlook is NOT and exact science, but Reading Tea Leaves.
  • If you backtest results over the last two years you will find this a very successful method. But markets change and to will strategy.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock –a 14% dividend

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD (Long Gold ETF)  Bought at 167.05 last week – a half position. GLD closed yesterday at 181.81. (I owe readers a column on this – hopefully Monday)  There are simply too many calls out there on GLD. Ripe for a bear raid by HFT’s. On other side – I believe it is likely that China is secretly buying tons of gold. If you have big position here I might take some profits.

DisclaimerPersonally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on over half of dividend stocks I own. I also use leveraged ETF’s TZA & SDS to minimize downside risk I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I will be purchasing additional YSL #5 stocks when we have a lower MO.*

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

*The most important foreseeable fundamental factor in determining the log term stock outlook is what The Fed (Bernanke) does to impact money supply (example – a new QE#3)

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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September 6, 2011

AAA

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Jeremy Irons as one of the Borgias

Banker and Pope

AAA Bonds

The US and the world desperately need credible lending and rating agencies. If there are no rules, regulators, and transparency then sooner rather than later you have a meltdown.

The latest - When Credit Rating Agencies Lose Their Meaning - from Bloomberg/Businessweek.

Subprime loans have a AAA credit rating and the USA (who can get an unbelievable low 2% for 10 year treasury bill) gets downgraded. Why? – Hint – Credit agencies major source of funding is, of course, shadow banking sector.

Obama’s Job’s Speech

Long long, long, overdue. Instead, Obama’s's let the Republicans set the agenda – Contract government.

One hope – That this is a big bold jobs speech. More later.

_________________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.20% low
NASDQ -2.58% low
S&P 500 -2.53% low
Russell 2000 -3.61% -

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Market Analysis

Focus on TechnicalsFundamentalsHFT’s

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Stocks have fallen significantly in low volume for the last two trading days.  A sure sign that HFT’s are manipulation stocks.
  • Reality - If you are a short term trader, you are going to have to come to terms with understanding what HFT’s do (see last weeks blog posts for a start) The wild volume swing are HFT’s feeding grounds. BIG low volume price moves are now the rule rather than the exception. As long as HFT’s dominate there is going to be many more wild, over exaggerated volume swings because that’s how they make $$$
  • RepeatTechnically we have formed a double bottom for most major indexes Now major indexes have formed short term higher highs. (see charts of major indexes on right side of blog). Traditional technical analysis says this is bullish. In the short term technical analysts were  dead WRONG. Fundamentals control what’s happening in the long run and the HFT are dominating stocks technically.

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

  • The PCR rose to 1.44 (Above 1.00 is Bullish and below Bearish)(last two years the highest for PCR is @1.50 and lowest @0.60) For more information on PCR LINK Since the PCR is new we’ll work refining how to better read this chart. A 1.44 figure = Bullish

The McClellan Oscillator

  • (MO) Fell from +85.84 Wed, night to +10.17 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overboughtThis (+85.84) is about as high as the MO has risen in last two years (One time higher) Strong indication that the bullish trend for US stocks is worn out. The MO has once again been amazingly accurate is predicting a major high. Today’s MO +10 = Neutral

___________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

From last Thursday - Short term nod to bears, but bulls still in charge of longer term technical trend. it looks like so many HFT’s/pros/programed traders are going short (buying puts at an ultra high 1.44% ratio to calls on the P/CR) that we are running out of put buyers.

Therefore, today’s early meltdown should see a bottom if the number of puts grow. (Short term traders can watch the put/call levels daily, through your broker or trading platform. Simply watch a major US indexes number of puts and calls.  If the puts numbers increase dramatically we should see at least a short term bottom) So strong chance of  at least a short term rebound late today/tomorrow.  This would be a technical adjustment.

Fundamentals rule and if Europe is melting down then everyone suffers. German market is key to watch. Down 5% yesterday, but up +0.71 at 7:30 EST.

Longer Term Outlook

month, months,

  • Repeat Same old mantra May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May. For the Fed to act significantly – inject more liquidity – I’m afraid we need to see stocks do worse.

________________

Paul’s Corner

A yo-yo market it is and tough to hold ANY stock!  Bloodshed in Europe markets Monday adds to the dangers of this market.  My good friend Ian Woodward has given us several great blog posts these past few days, here is his latest and what to watch for this coming week.

Link

Ian starts this latest blog with the snakes and ladder  chart and let me warn you when he comes up this chart it’s his stern warning not to play in this market!

I only read a few blogs and one of my favorites is by Dave Steckler, he specializes in ETF’s. Dave is hosting a HGSI webinar Wednesday evening Sept 7 and should be very interesting.

Dave Steckler, author of the investing blog, www.etfroundup.com, and long time HGSI user, will lever the new ETF component capability of HGS Investor Version 8 in his presentation, “Creating Composite Indexes with ETFs.”  Dave will introduce the various indexes he has created, demonstrate how he created them and how he trades with them.  The webinar will also describe how Dave created the charts he uses, which incorporate Bollinger Bands and the Tsunami Indicator. Time will be alloted for Q&A.

Dave is a former member and past president of the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts (AAPTA) and a former member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA).

Registration Link

Not a great time to post watch lists, but here is  my current  list. Most were selected from chart action, basic fundamentals and technicals. A few are there cause I like the company. Note just because a company is on this list doesn’t mean it’s worth buying.

AKRX,ARMH,AZO,AXTI,BGS,BRFS,BIP,COG,CATM,CPHD,CF,CMG,KO,CROX,CVV,RJA,EOG,GMCR,GPOR,JAZZ,KCI,LXU,LULU,MOO,

MJN,MPEL,MRGE,NLC,NFLX,PSMT,RNOW,RES,SPRD,TSCO,ZAGG

Disclaimer: I trust you are all safely in cash and NOT fooling around in this market!


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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

LONGER TERM POSITIONS

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

Until the Fed makes a commitment to more liquidity, its hard to add any unprotected log position other than buying GLD on dip.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock –a 14% dividend

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF)  Bought at 167.05 last week – a half position. GLD closed yesterday at 183.24% Stop/loss on GLD at 168. @+9%

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on over half of dividend stocks I own. I also own TZA & SDS (3x & 2X short ETF’s) I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I will be purchasing additional YSL #5 stocks when we have a lower MO.

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks)

The most important  foreseeable fundamental factor in determining the log term outlook is what The Fed (Bernanke) does to impact money supply (example – a new QE#3)

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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August 26, 2011

Caught

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Bernanke Speech today in Jackson Hole

HFT’s Caught in the Act.

Anyone’s whose read Investor411 nows about how much of the market is controled by High Frequency Traders HFT’s The damage they cause, and the loss of income to ordinary investors goes under reported

Zero Hedge, may not be your cup of tea (its not mine) as a web site, but they have graphically shown how “quote stuffing” (one of the ways your investment is manipulated in their favor) works LINK to explanation and the charts are theirs.

The explanation is rather technical but the bottom line speaks to the lack of stock market integrity

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

The Dead Cat Bounce Didn’t bounce yesterday

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.51% low
NASDQ -1.95% low
S&P 500 -1.56% low
Russell 2000 -2.62% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Very little to add. All eyes on Bernanke and what he says today (see Jackson Hole reference below)
  • Technically we have formed a double bottom for most major indexes and that’s bullish.
  • Very low volume shows even more control of markets by HFT’s
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to to -1.04 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought)  = Neutral
  • From Yesterday Reading the Tea Leaves-US stocks sure has all the feel of a dead cat bounce… Also first hurricane in a decade to hit NYC not bullish. The dead cat didn’t bounce. Today is all about Bernanke and how the algorithms the HFT’s use play off what Bernanke says. Tea leaves say bear win.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May.
  • RepeatReading Tea LeavesI believe we need another 5 to 10%  (now @ 4 to 8 %) drop to the downside before the Fed will intervene more strongly (QE #3 or something else) Perhaps this will come at the end of the week when there’s a meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming. LINK So still CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

.

NLY Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – So far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio. Easily outperformed S&P 500 over last couple months and 14% dividend is added bonus.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) From Yesterday  going to start to nibble a little on dip today and add more on further dips”. Bought dip as stock near the open at 167.05 a half position

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also ow SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

_______________

Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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August 25, 2011

Two Hurricanes

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Irene

3irene

_______________

Rick Perry

Rick Perry Polls

Rick Perry, like an oncoming hurricane,  has taken a double digit lead over Mitt Romney in two polls. (Gallop & PPP) This destroys Romney front runner “inevitability” status and he better do more than be a cardboard investment banker or he’ll get washed out.  Obama’s next.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

The Dead Cat Bounce

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.29% low
NASDQ +0.88% low
S&P 500 +1.31% low
Russell 2000 +1.39% -

_______________

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Repeat from yesterdayGold got so far over extended above its 50 & 17 day moving average it just had to blow off some overbought steam and fall… an overbought gold position falling triggered the algorithms of the High Frequency Traders, that dominate our stock market, into selling. A big chunk of the $ coming out of gold went to stocks. Also oversold financial stocks added to rally.
  • Can’t repeat this often enough - HFT’s are what moves the markets, not your traditional traders. They majority have long since left the building. Any competent analysis of market direction has to focus on HFT’s.
  • Steve Jobs resigns from Apple (now the world’s largest company) is front page headline even in NYT “He Can’t Meet His Duties.”
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +26.39 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought)  = Neutral/a touch bearish
  • Why the MO has worked so well for Investors411 - It’s Simple #1 – clearly established lines for oversold and overbought #2 It can also be read technically as a chart – Example: Higher highs and higher lows indicate a direction #3 a combination of 1 & 2. Example: When bears rule its harder for the MO to get more overbought and visa versa for bulls.
  • A simple MO trading strategy. Since the outlook is CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH right now we probably won’t get as overbought as oversold. A very rough guideline – MO gets close to/over +30 – start to think about selling. MO gets close to/over -60 start thinking about buying.
  • Reading The Tea Leaves –  We probably need at least a bear market before the Fed acts more forcefully. We are @ 4 to 6% away from that right now. When the silver bubble popped it took four days to unwind. Like silver gold has had some fundamental issues behind its fall (some raising of margin rates to buy gold from major exchanges), but the fall is mosly technical with the extra cash finding its way into stocks.
  • We’ve had a stock bounce based on money flowing out of gold. Technical analysts will tell give you  ONLY the fact that markets were way oversold. But fundamentals matter. Both the Shanghai Gold Exchange (now twice in a month) and this must have leaked out – now the CME has raised margins (+27%) on the amour of gold you need to have to buy.
  • US stocks sure has all the feel of a dead cat bounce – The Low volume transfer of assets from overbought gold and financials to stocks . The CME group raising margins, after the bell yesterday, may drive more HFT’s from gold to stocks, but the higher the MO goes the harder it is for US equities to climb. Also first hurricane in a decade to hit NYC not bullish.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • RepeatMay 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May.
  • RepeatReading Tea LeavesI believe we need another 5 to 10% on the downside before the Fed will intervene more strongly (QE #3 or something else) Perhaps this will come at the end of the week when there’s a meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming. LINK After the rally yesterday I see less of a chance that the Fed makes a move – So still CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

_______________

Paul’s Corner

How many shares do you buy? 1000, 5000, 500, 100? While I wish I had the buck$ to buy a big block of stock, like many I don’t have the funds or the guts to by a big block. So what can you buy or what’s more important, what’s safe to buy considering your available funds and the volatility of the market?

Tony Oz is a well know technical trader who lost shirt a few times by buying an incorrect amount of stock in a volatile market. He produced and offers for free a neat position size calculator.  Ron Brown from HGSI produces a variety of instructional videos for trading. I asked him several days ago if he had a video available on how to use Tony Oz’s position calculator. He didn’t have one available but after a bit of discussion explaining that it would be a good guide for HGSI users and members of Invesrtors411.com, he graciously produced one yesterday

LINK to video

This is a great presentation and one you all should view and download for future reference.

This sort of cooperation from HGSI is why I love the product. Where else can you get such powerful software and personal assistance?

As I mentioned a few days ago HGSI has some very good search and sort screens. One of  my favorites is called “The Best of Woodward and Brown”. I won’t go into the specifics but it usually presents you with a list of 10 best performing growth stocks during the day. Here is Tuesdays list, notice three YSL stocks.

AKRX,CF,ZNH,CPSI,CROX,CVV,HANS,SIMO,SPRD,TAM

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not. Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio. Easily outperformed S&P 500 over last couple months and 14% dividend is added bonus.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD (Long Gold ETF) Gold is falling like a stone. See reasons above. When the silver bubble popped, a couple months back, it took four full days to unwind. Think gold will hold up a bit better, so just going to start to nibble a little on dip today and add more on further dips.

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also ow SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. .

Sold call options on GLD yesterday at $3.80. Shoulda sold them a lot earlier and taken bigger profits, but since this was NOT a covered call I didn’t want a loss – One of Investors411′s mantras is don’t turn winners into losers. Calls and Puts are NOT part of Investors411′s Hypothetical portfolio

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

_______________

Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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August 24, 2011

Please Tax Us

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Please Tax Us

In France the 16 richest (Link) have banded together and signed a petition to INCREASE their taxes. Just like Warren Buffett in the USA. – He was ridiculed by almost every right wing outlet

Of course in the USA Republican’s have to take a pledge NOT to increase taxes on the rich. In America we privatise the profits and socialize the risk.

___________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Our bear s still out there

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +2.97% ave.
NASDQ +4.29% ave.
S&P 500 +3.43% ave.
Russell 2000 +4.87% -

_______________

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Gold got so far over extended above its 50 & 17 day moving average it just had to blow off some overbought steam and fall. No major bad news from Europe and an overbought gold position falling triggered the algorithms of the High Frequency Traders, that dominate our stock market, into selling.
  • Rumors of a possible QE #3 announcement  and  a short sale ban on financials also seemed to juice the algos of the HFT’s. (see Jackson Hole link below) Add to this the Somewhat oversold conditions of stocks and you have the fundamentals behind yesterday’s rally.
  • HFT’s are what moves the markets, not your traditional traders. They majority have long since left the building. Any competent analysis of market direction has to focus on HFT’s.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +4.56 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold)Neutral
  • Through these last two months and  for over a year the MO has been an excellent forecasting tool – More tomorrow
  • Reading The Tea LeavesFutures are down. However the major question will gold see a second day of declines from its super way overbought highs. It’s really hard to see US markets move deeply into overbought territory right now. With MO at +4.56 there is wiggle room for both bears and bulls. But we probably need at least a bear market before the Fed act and are @ 3 to 5% away from that right now.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May.
  • Repeat - Reading Tea Leaves - I believe we need another 5 to 10% on the downside before the Fed will intervene more strongly (QE #3 or something else) Perhaps this will come at the end of the week when there’s a meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming. LINK After the rally yesterday I see less of a chance that the Fed makes a move – So still CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

But maybe the following can help turn those bears into bulls.

______________

“Demystifying  and Discussing  Simple Option Strategies”

by JS

COVERED CALLS

Most people think using options is an exotic and a very risky strategy, however using options can actually lower risk for investors, and can also be used to increase yield for conservative investors.

An option is a “right” to buy or sell a stock at a fixed price anytime up to a specific date.

Options are sold, or bought  by contracts: One contract covers 100 shares of a stock. When you see a price (premium) for an option, it is the price for coverage of one share of stock.  Example:  listed price of option is $.35, which means you’ll pay $35 for each contract  (100 shares) you buy. Expiration date is the date the option has to be acted on (generally 3rd Saturday of each month) or it will expire worthless to the buyer.

Example:

KMP is the underlying stock these options are covering. First you must own 100 shares of KMP and want to keep it as a long term investment.

The symbol for a KMP call is:   -KMP110917C67.5

What these numbers/letters mean:

  • - (minus sign) means option;
  • KMP is ticker  symbol of stock covered;
  • 11 means yr. 2011;
  • 09 means Sept. (the 9th month);
  • 17 means Sept 17 (expiration date),
  • C means a call,
  • 67.5  is the price you must sell the stock if you sold the call.

KMP closed Fri. @66.25  and  you bought the stock at that price. The price of this option then was bid 1.79 – asked 1.91.

Strategy:

You own the stock, want to hold it but you want to increase your yield, taking a chance it may be CALLED (taken). You SELL  the call,  pocket $1.79 per share, and wait to see if it’s taken from you by Sept 17. If taken, you profit:

  • 67.50 price paid for your stock when called
  • - 66.25 price when you bought the stock
  • 1.25 profit (price above where it was when you bought the stock)
  • 1.79 premium you received for call you SOLD (the bid price)
  • 3.04 Total profit for less than a month, less commission

Commission =  commission to buy stock + to sell call + when your stock is taken from you. If the commission is $8 on each the total would be $24

Per 100 shares, profit $304 – $24 = $280 total profit

If you want to, you can buy KMP again if your option is bought.

If KMP is not taken (price dropped or stayed below $67.50), you keep the premium  (179.00) and can sell another call for a future month. Either way you make a profit if the stock is taken or an extra dividend if it isn’t.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

JS is a frequent contributor in the comments section of blog. Also look for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday.

______________

stock options cartoons, stock options cartoon, stock options picture, stock options pictures, stock options image, stock options images, stock options illustration, stock options illustrations

You don’t have to be rich to use covered calls  or many option strategies – [editor]

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

Have not had time to check, but YSL #5 probably did very well yesterday.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio. Easily outperformed S&P 500 over last couple months and 14% dividnd is added bonus.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits back at $157. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip.

If/when the MO low enough I will buy some YSL #5 stocks for our hypothetical portfolio Gold was way too far above its 50 & 17 Moving Averages to buy. Yesterday’s -3.75 brought it back some.  Chance we’ll see another day of selling and a better entry point at end of day or tomorrow.

DisclaimerPersonally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also ow SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. Buying some more hedges (TZA) at open. For those that do options – I bought a November 19th call on GLD for $355 at 191.  How much can an option move in a single day?  My GLD call option went from $655 and ended the day at $410. Bummer

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

_______________

Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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August 18, 2011

YOUR Stock List #5

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Our last 4 “YOUR stock Lists” have beaten the S&P 500

Today we introduce #5

Some notes on YSL #5

  • Thanks to everyone who participated – Without your help there would be no list.
  • Check out the MO (see below – McClellan Oscillator) before buying. Usually the lower the MO is the better your chance at a successful trade.
  • Be careful of chasing over extended stocks - Stocks too far above their 50 DMA’s or 17 DMA’s
  • Ticker Symbols are linked to charts. You can adjust chart to different time periods.
  • Stocks are NOT listed in any order of preference.
  • The first four  stock lists ran 2 to 3 months.
  • We have tried to diversify by industry group
  • Overall strategy is to buy the dip of trending stocks
  • Many of the stocks were chosen because they did not do as badly as most other stocks when the markets sank over the last month and/or recovered faster.
  • We hope this List  again beats the S&P 500. But the S&P may go down and so can YSL #5
  • My favorite way of looking this is to choose a handful of stocks and buy when the MO dips. The lower the better.
  • Paul often comments on these stocks in the comments section of the blog.
  • This new list will replace YSL#4 in the POSITIONS section of blog today

Obviously we can’t guarantee anything and you take this advice at your own risk


See Paul’s Corner at bottom of blog for

YSL #5

_______________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.04% low
NASDQ -0.47% low
S&P 500 +0.09% low
Russell 2000 -0.10% -

_______________

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Flat day with little volume. It looks like bulls have run out of gas and need another dose of good news.
  • Dividend Stocks – Because may of you like dividend stocks for the long term – Here, from Seeking Alpha is 3 favorite high yield dividend plays, It include one favorite AGNC at 18.8% dividend.

The 3 Legs – Europe, USA & Emerging Markets

  • From Yesterday - One of the three legs, Europe is very wobbly and most investment eyes are focused on it. Its got worse in Europe At 8:50 AM EST German market down -3.47% If the world’s largest economic block (the EU) is toasting it will take everything else with it. Right now, a recession in Europe seems almost inevitable and possible for USA LINK & LINK
  • Never forget our mantraHigh Frequency Traders Rule US & European Equities – These entities make their decision in microseconds and are not based on long term trends. They account for low volume rallies and other atypical technical market behavior.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +21.14 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold) Chart shows we are nearing overbought territory. Therefore getting bearish, but overall still = Neutral
  • Reading The Tea Leaves – From Yesterday – Short term momentum still with the bulls. Momentum died yesterday AM and it looks like markets have risen about as far as they can on the Fed’s promise of near zero rates till mid 2013. European problems look like they will wash ashore here.

Sure Looks Like Bears are coming back

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still standsThe May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move.
  • The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has brought the Long Term Outlook for US Stocks close to NEUTRAL. But that’s just not good enough with Europe’s problem’s growing and the USA jobless rate. The Fed stimulus programs have kept this market moving higher and stocks may drop till the Fed devises another QE 3. This was all predicted in the May 20th forecast. Stocks have to drop low enough for the Fed to act.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip. Just own some.

If/when the MO low enough I will buy some YSL #5 stocks for our hypothetical portfolio

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some  SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. Buying some more hedges (TZA) at open. For those that do options – I bought a November 19th call on GLD for $355 at 191.

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

_______________

Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


Paul’s Corner

Before we look at Your Stock List, it’s important to think about the damage that has been done to the market these past few weeks. This has been a very fast “V” type correction and rarely does the market correct as fast on the up side as it fell on the down side.

My good  friend and mentor Ian Woodward produces a great monthly news letter and this month he discussed the elephant marching around in the market. He points out several times that it’s gonna take some time to repair the damage:

“However, I point to the length of time it takes to get out of the doldrums and it is at least a few months. The recent dip of the Flash Crash is well implanted in our minds of 4 months, before the fresh rally resumed starting on 9/1/ 2010.”

Keep this in mind and the fact we may NOT have seen the bottom of this correction. Buy the dip as Barr always suggests and it might be a good idea to make partial purchases and add to your position as the market improves. In other words, don’t sink your grandchildren’s inheritance all at once! This has been and still is a very treacherous market, it’s tough for seasoned day traders and unsuitable for retail investors. Just because we are releasing this watch list doesn’t mean it’s all clear to play!

These past few weeks has been good for stock evaluation by simply watching  how the chart performed. Some of your suggestions performed poorly these past few weeks and were dropped.  A  broad group of stocks has been selected. The date at the end  of the stock profile is the expected earnings date.

Your  Stock List – 5

AKRX- Akorn, Inc. engages in the manufacture and marketing of diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceutical products, hospital drugs, and injectable pharmaceuticals in the United States and internationally.  Aug 02.

ABV - Companhia de Bebidas das Americas–Ambev engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, carbonated soft drinks, malt, and other non-alcoholic and non-carbonated products in Brazil and the Americas. Sept 03

NLY - Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a real estate investment trust, engages in the ownership, management, and financing of a portfolio of investment securities. Aug 03

AAPLApple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, mobile communication and media devices, and portable digital music players, Oct 19

CPHD - Cepheid, a molecular diagnostics company, develops, manufactures, and markets integrated systems for testing in the clinical market, as well as for application in legacy biothreat, industrial, and partner markets. Its systems enable molecular testing for organisms and genetic-based diseases by automation.  A YSL 4 stock. Oct. 21

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in the United States. Oct 19

CROXCrocs, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and children. Oct. 27

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. operates in the specialty coffee industry in the United States and internationally Oct 27

HANS - Hansen Natural Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development, marketing, sale, and distribution of beverages in the United States and internationally. The company principally offers natural sodas, fruit juices and juice drinks, energy drinks and energy sports drinks, fruit juice smoothies and functional drinks Nov  04

HLFHerbalife Ltd., a network marketing company, sells weight management, nutritional supplement, energy, sports and fitness, and personal care products worldwide. Nov 01

LULU - Lululemon Athletica Inc., together with its subsidiaries engages in the design, manufacture, and distribution of athletic apparel and accessories for women, men, and female youth primarily in Canada, the United States, and Australia.

RESRPC, Inc., an oil and gas services company, provides a range of oilfield services and equipment to the oil and gas companies primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Technical Services and Support Services Oct 02

TSUTIM Participacoes S.A. provides mobile telecommunications services through global system mobile (GSM) technology to business and individual customers in Brazil. It provides prepaid and post paid services.  Aug 21 (Note: TSU just did a stock  split and many charts still haven’t been corrected)

ZAGG - ZAGG Incorporated designs, manufactures, and distributes protective coverings, audio accessories, and power solutions for consumer electronic and hand-held devices,  Aug 15

For future evaluation, stock pricing will be at the close today August 18 and we will report using a dollar weighted average.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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August 17, 2011

The Oracle

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

It’s on its way

YOUR Stock List #5

  • Four times, together, we’ve  roasted and toasted our benchmark S&P 500 LINK (scroll down for results)
  • Four times YOU sent in entries for YOUR stock lists
  • Four times  Paul & I have gone over them and picked potential winners (we added a few too)

Now its time for YOUR stock List #5 (YSL #5) and we think its the best yet.

Tomorrow in Paul’s Corner

YSL #5

_________________

  • Warren Buffett on Charlie Rose LINKIf you can hold the US debt ceiling hostage, you can hold it hostage to anything from abortion to the latest war.
  • Warren Buffett in NYT “Stop Coddling The Super Rich” LINK

One early poll means almost nothing but Rasmussen Poll: Rick Perry 29%, Mitt Romney 18%, Michelle Bachmann 18% and Ron Paul 9% But it does raise an eyebrow.

Perry is a larger than life “gun toting, flag waving, bible thumping, Bernanke bashing, Tea Party loving, patriot.”

If I were Mitt Romney I’d be really concerned that if Bachmann of Paul drops out their vote will go to Perry and not him.

_______________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.67% low
NASDQ -1.24% low
S&P 500 -0.97% low
Russell 2000 -0.93% -

_______________

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • A weak volume rally followed by a weak volume decline – Just the kind of situation HFT’s in the past have used to extend a weak volume rally. News out of Europe did cause a drop, but interday we rallied off the lows.

The 3 Legs – Europe, USA & Emerging Markets

  • One of the three legs, Europe is very wobbly and most investment eyes are focused on it. LINK Bad news did sink US stocks, but we rallied off them and unless there is some unexpected European meltdown our bullish mojo should continue.
  • Never forget our mantraHigh Frequency Traders Rule US & European Equities- These entities make their decision in microseconds and are not based on long term trends. They account for low volume rallies and other atypical technical market behavior.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +9.99 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold) Chart shows we are almost dead center in the middle of oversold and overbought territory. There’s wiggle room for stocks to move either way and mojo is with the bulls. = Neutral
  • Reading The Tea LeavesShort term momentum still with the bulls. Fed’s low interest rates till mid 2013 and relatively low levels of the dollar mean profits for globalized American companies should hold steady. Momentum still with the bulls till we reach oversold territory in the MO

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move.
  • The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has brought the Long Term Outlook for US Stocks close to NEUTRAL. Any announcement of a type of QE #3 would push the outlook even higher.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

YOUR Stock List #5 is done and except for some last minute tweaking and waiting for an earnings report. It will be published on Thursday in Paul’s Corner.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip. Mea culpa – The small two day dip was a decent  entry point and I missed it. Why Gold

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABVAGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some (about 80% of thisposition has been sold) SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

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The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has brought the Long Term Outlook for US Stocks close to NEUTRAL

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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August 11, 2011

The Path not Taken

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Compromise

American’s say they want compromise and legislators working together.

In fact 23 separate polls say the deficit should be reduced by raising taxes (this figure ranges from 76% to 59% vs 40% to 19% who say only spending cuts)

Yet we learned that greed and fear based Murdoch style journalism sells. Ideologues hate compromise and, as many of you are aware, almost all Republicans have made a pledge NEVER to compromise on taxes even for the wealthy. The path of No compromise.

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Historically,  countries have chosen the path of growing as their primary way out of recession. The Tea Party dominated congress has forced considerations of immediate cuts on a weak economy that will constrict spending.

We’ve come from loosing -720,000 a month to gaining +117,000 a month. Moving in the right direction, but still way too fragile a recovery to withstand the impact of a constricted economy. A few of many examples of making cuts sooner rather than later.

  • You constrict the economy = less jobs. One major reason for the recent growing deficit is so many people out of jobs, or in under paid jobs paying almost no taxes.
  • Cutting education and teachers – High tech is the future of jobs, slash them and there are fewer good paying jobs for Americans and deficits grows because fewer have decent jobs.
  • Raise social security eligibility age. If you raise the age for ss people will work longer and young workers will not find jobs.

By not focusing on the clear and present danger – jobs and our economy - we have done significant damage to our hopes for the future. We’ve again chosen the wrong path.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -4.62% big
NASDQ -4.09% big
S&P 500 -4.42% big
Russell 2000 -5.16% -

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Fear, Fear Fear dominates the markets and many believe we are in a selling climax[translation - almost everyone whose going to sell has already sold] A climax sell off is when there is huge, increased volume behind the selling. This huge volume/meltdown has been the case for over a week.
  • Outflows from mutual funds (see below) also indicate a climax sell off. However, everything gets exaggerated because over 60% of all trading is done by High Frequency Traders. I would imagine even more than the 60+ is now being done by HFT’s because of the huge volatility. New HFT’s rule – Technical aspects may be secondary to headline driven markets
  • CAUTIONEven more mom and pop investors have left the markets in the latest meltdown. High Frequency Traders rule even more than before. This is what is creating the massive interday volatility (especially in options). Don’t be fooled into thinking these are normal investors getting back into the markets – its HFT’s taking a an ever bigger and bigger share of US equity trading. $16.94 billion in outflows from mutual funds last week almost equaled the record held by the week directly after the HFT induced “flash crash”
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -87.80 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold). Were at almost OMG oversold levels.-88 is not as bullish as the -142 a couple days back.  But, technical outlook = Bullish
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Stocks are moving on headlines and that move is exaggerates by all the HFT trading. The macro headlines are worries over Europe’s banking system and a downgrade of France’s AAA credit rating.

From yesterday Bottom Line… More often than not lows are retested before a rally.

Bottom Line - Lows were certainly retested yesterday.

So the stage is technically set for some kind of oversold rally. However, fear dominates right now and fear is driven by headlines. (Example – S&P downgrades France from AAA credit or bond yields in Italy/Spain rocket higher again.) Sorry I’m just not fast enough on a short term basis to predict headlines and how markets will react. HFT’s do this in microseconds.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • RepeatMay 20th forecast still stands. The recent Washington debt crisis debacle has focused everyone on cutting the money supply.  Simple math – The less money that’s out there = less jobs = greater chance the “Great Recession” returns. European debt and emerging market’s inflation fears add to this.
  • Long Term Outlook Listed Below. Some major Long (monthly charts that go back over a decade)term trend lines have been broken (will go into this tomorrow) = Bearish

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Paul’s Corner

I’ve mentioned HGSI quite a few times as the software I use to research and evaluate stocks. It’s  a powerful and easy to use program.  HGSI usually features a webinar every month demonstrating the program and giving trading tips.  Their next webinar is as follows:

Join HGSI Power User Ray Ebert on on Tuesday August 16th from 8:00 pm to 9:15 pm EDT.  Ray will present  ” Prospecting and Trading Within a Weekly Timeframe.”

Ray has been using HGSI since 2009 and earlier this year was selected to be a “Spiker,” an elite-level member of SpikeTrade, a trading community managed by Dr. Alexander Elder and Kerry Lovvorn.  In his first quarter as a Spiker, Ray distinguished himself by winning first place for equity and 2nd place for points in the weekly trading competitions.

For traders/investors who are challenged with finding the time to trade regularly or who want to incorporate more structure into their trading routine, Ray’s presentation should be of great benefit.  He will share his disciplined weekly trading methodology using HGSI and other software.  He will also give examples of how he manages his trades and provide technical analysis of stocks submitted by the audience.

Registration   www2.gotomeeting.com/register/382039138

I encourage you to join in for some good trading tips!

So on another 500 pt drop yesterday, where did the money go? My favorite top 100 high demand search shows gold stocks  led the way with 25%, Oil & Gas Transporation 7%, Prec. Metals 7%,

Gold (25.00%, 25 securities)

  • Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)
  • Allied Nevada Gold Corp (ANV)
  • AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)
  • Aurizon Mines  Ltd. (AZK)
  • Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
  • Buenaventura Mining Company (BVN)
  • Coeur D’Alene Mines Corporat (CDE)
  • Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)
  • Gold Fields Limited (GFI)
  • Gold Resource Corp (GORO)
  • Goldcorp  Inc. (GG)
  • Harmony Gold Mining Co.  Ltd (HMY)
  • IAMGold Corporation (IAG)
  • International Tower Hill Min (THM)
  • Jaguar Mining  Inc. (JAG)
  • Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)
  • Minefinders  Ltd. (MFN)
  • Nevsun Resources  Ltd. (NSU)
  • New Gold  Inc. (NGD)
  • Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM)
  • Novagold Resources  Inc. (NG)
  • Randgold Resources  Ltd. (GOLD)
  • Richmont Mines  Inc. (RIC)
  • Royal Gold  Inc. (RGLD)
  • Yamana Gold  Inc. (AUY)

Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (7.00%, 7 securities)

  • El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (EPB)
  • Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)
  • Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP)
  • ONEOK Partners  L.P. (OKS)
  • Plains All American Pipeline (PAA)
  • Southern Union Co (SUG)
  • Williams Partners L.P. (WPZ)

Precious Metals & Minerals (7.00%, 7 securities)

  • Endeavour Silver Corporation (EXK)
  • First Majestic Silver Corp (AG)
  • Hecla Mining Company (HL)
  • Pan American Silver Corporat (PAAS)
  • Silver Standard Resources  I (SSRI)
  • Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW)
  • Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM)

Careful with the gold and related stocks, the CME raised margin requirements on gold

So what’s the market going to do today, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not. Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip.

DisclaimerPersonally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY.  I have placed puts on all of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

_________________

Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations – BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, AND BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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July 18, 2011

The Toxic Spider

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

.

“The Toxic Spider”

Rupert Murdoch’s “News” empire is under siege.

The man who is most responsible for tuning news into its vilest and lowest common denominator –  sensationalism, fear mongering, bias, hatred, manipulation, rigid partisanship etc. is embroiled in a worldwide scandal.

The steady stream of influence peddling, bribery, hacked emails of parents of Iraq vets to kidnap victims that is coming to light  is exposing the greed based empire for what it is – A toxic media spiderweb  from Fox News & The WSJ to the London Tabloids.

Many in the Murdoch empire have already resigned and been arrested  the Head of Scotland Yard has also reigned in wake of the scandal. Th FBI is now investigating in the USA.

More sourcesBloomberg/Businessweek, John Nichols/The Nation, & David Carr/NYT

Murdoch empire has been able for decades to throw millions at anyone who questioned their ethics or through the empire’s news machine crush his opponent. Perhaps this time the empire will spend billions to make it all go away.

As one editorialist put it when this is all over the collectve intelligence of the english speaking world may be raised by a few IQ points

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.34 Up
NASDQ +0.98 Down
S&P 500 +0.56 Flat
Russell 2000 +0.66 -

_______________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Obviously a bad week for stocks. An OMG overbought market was the initial cause behind the pullback and worries over manufactured US Debt crisis ( “manufactured” = debt is generally not desirable, but this is not a crisis that has to happen now) and Europe’s debt problems.
  • GOOG’s earnings results led bulls on Friday. Earnings week in full force this week, but every investors is looking over their shoulder about negative consequences of defaulting.

  • The High Frequency Traders and major institutions dominate and manipulate US equity trades. HFT, manipulators have formed a lobbying group to clean up their image. Like most lobbying groups, this is supposes to make us sheep feel good about the wolves circling the flock.
  • Technically, the price charts of major US indexes looks like they may be building a bearish head and shoulders pattern. If support breaks, we could see some roasting and toasting of US equities,
  • Two of our successful forecasting tools listed below
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically last week  from OMG overbought to neutral. -11.80 Lots of wiggle room for equities to go higher and lower.  = Neutral
  • $USD The Dollar had a series of hyper interday swings last week-0.17% Friday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Prices tried and failed to break out to new five month highs. (see link to chart) The failure creates a strong resistance level and is bearish for the dollar in the long term  and therefore bullish for stocks. For stocks= Neutral
  • Reading The Tea LeavesFrom a week+ agoShorter term  - OMG oversold levels will be reached in any rally.  This put big pressure on rally to let off some steam. We did more than let off some steam from overbought conditions. Investors started to worry about US and European debt.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • From Last blog Post on 7/6 – The key is to watch for is when Wall Street prices start to react negatively to the debt crisis. Longer term value  investors are taking necessary precautions to protect their portfolio due to the debt problems in Europe and the USA.
  • Reading Tea Leaves – I think the wealthy oligarchy that manipulates and makes money off US & other markets will not let the USA default on its debt. They to have too much to loose. On the other hand, there are many on the far right that feel they would benefit from the economic chaos that would occur.
  • Fear usually trumps greed, but when you drive a speeding car to the edge of a cliff and step on the breaks at the last second it may be too late to matter.

We are entering uncharted waters where even holding cash may turn into a loosing position.

______________

Your Stock List

Repeat from last week

Paul has published to a spreadsheet of YSL #4 in the comments section of the blog.

Like the past 3 YSL’s is beat the S&P 500 our benchmark S&P 500 again, but this time our gains were meager in comparison to the other three YOUR Stock Lists.

A new YSL is under construction. If You are on the email List send in your choices to me this week.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a bigger hit.

GLD & SLV - Gold has broken out to a new high and will probably surge higher today.  Silver should follow. Reasons for this is instability in Europe and US (debt crisis) Investors are rushing into these safer havens (especially gold) in anticipation of problems getting worse. I will probably add SLV to Investors411 portfolio or for those that can tolerate higher risk AGQ (ETF that is double Silver) (Warning on AGQ – it is tied to London trading exchange not US – see me if you want more on this)

I’d prefer to add GLD or DGP (double gold ETF) but fear is will open too high and would prefer a dip.

Long term Investors - GLD is by far the #1 investment (from over 20) that we have held in the non profit I’m Treasurer of. We have held a position in GLD for over 6 years.

Disclaimer - Personally I own a group of dividend stocks including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and some general ETF’s that track market indexes. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

Obviously, day and swing traders are subject to some potential mega moves ahead in the market. Your stops may get busted and if you hold an issue overnight there is a chance that major US indexes could move dramatically higher or lower.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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