Fed Chair Ben Bernanke

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.93%	up
NASDQ	+0.77%	up
S&P 500	+0.82%	up
Russell 2000	+1.04%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• The dollar fell enough yesterday to reach a three year low.
• Repeat from yesterday (NB: all repeat phrases are in brown) - Stocks continued to have abysmal volume, despite the fact that we are in the middle of earnings season.
• Volume was just above average and that average is down from the past. Low volume gives Fed’s quantitative easing more influence to move markets up.
• Repeat - US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for stocks in short term.
• The fall in the dollar is bullish for almost all commodities including gold, silver, and oil.
• Bernanke speaking – markets don’t expect any major news, but the continuation of present policies -low interest rates and quantitative easing are key dynamics.
• Markets expecting more of same from Bernanke and this is why they are in rally mode. From WSJ on Bernanke

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] -0.20 yesterday. Not a big fall, but enough to break down to a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to+28.63.  Getting up there but still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

For Silver and Gold Investors – The dollar breakdown (See USD above) is one of the key catalysts behind the silver and gold trade.

Repeat from yesterday - The fundamentals, as described yesterday, have NOT changed. However, we have to wait for the bears to take a bite out of gold and silver before getting back in. Simply too many folks pilled in too quickly. Perhaps the dust will settle today/a week/ a month/ longer… I look for a shorter rather than longer meltdown.

It may be that a 10% correction in silver (SLV is the ETF) is all the correction we get.

Two Trends

• Everything is getting compressed. We had a massive 25 – 30% run in SLV (AGQ is riskier 2x silver ETF) in April and a 10% correction in two days that may have ended the meltdown -.  Just like that what used to take weeks and even a month to work itself out may be happening in a couple days in SLV. Gold held up very well yesterday. GLD is gold ETF (DGP is riskier 2x gold ETF)
• The dollar breakdown rules – The dollar may not be falling like a stone, but it is breaking down – This is positive for many investment categories -gold, silver oil, commodities and stocks.

Reasoning - The rapidness and volatility of the SLV move takes your breath away. Gold should have fallen with silver and didn’t.  Frankly I expected a bigger than -4% move down in SLV yesterday. The footprints of market manipulation are all over the SLV trade. I have no idea who these entities are unlike the Fed’s manipulation of stocks through quantitative easing.   But the fundamentals remain strong for silver and gold.

For Stock Investors -

Repeat from yesterday – Bottom line is that the dollar down/stocks up trends are still in place… Bernake’s, first time Fed chair speaks after a FOMC meeting, on Wednesday is a market mover. Markets are expecting Bernanke to stay the course – this is BULLISH. You may see some selling on the news after the speech.

We are still a bubblicious market juiced  by Fed liquidity.

Technically major indexes have formed a powerful inverse head and shoulders trading pattern and a breakout here is bullish

So I’m out on a limb here – But the call is Bullish across the board. Only major problem is if Bernanke and Fed make a dramatic change and throw a monkey wrench into investors expectations.

Arnold’s back, and he was only gone for a day. – The dollar is breaking down to lows and stocks breaking out to highs. I’m not making a big investment in stocks, because the MO is too high, but cautiously nibbling on (especially on a dip)

• UWM (2x small cap stocks) again as a longer term investments.
• GLD slower and steadier than SLV. SLV is riskier or for those that love great risk AGQ are options, but I’m going to wait a day or three on SLV. (MO relevant to stocks, but not as relevant to silver, gold, or rare earth metals)
• REMX – Buying any dip – Will try to add to Rare Earth Metals ETF’s. If you know how to read a candlestick chart you’ll see investors have bought the dip for the last 6 trading sessions – usually a bullish sign.
• See YOUR Stock List for other options

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers. UUP is key

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

Caution – Because of Low volume,  and high frequency trades, its very easy for entities from the Fed to hedge funds to manipulate prices Quantitative Easing is one huge manipulation of stocks (higher).

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Positions

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Photo from Common Dreams

Chris Hedges is a graduate of Harvard Divinity School and a 2 decade long correspondent for the NYT – also CSM, DMN, & NPR. The Acadamy Award Winning Film – The Hurt Locker opened with a quote from a Hedges’ book.

One can defend may things about capitalism. However, Hedges writes a potent editorial that starts -

“When did our democracy die?”

You may think this introduction is over the top, because the fact that I’m bringing you his words shows that the flame of democracy still burns. However,  Hedges does make many substantive points that are thought provoking.

• “When did the press, labor, universities, the Democratic part.. wither and atrophy”
• Is “corporate power” … “inverted totalitarianism?”
• Over decades – “a massive redistribution of wealth.”
• “These [corporate] elites do not have a vision [of democracy] . They know only one word—more.”
• The money quote -

“although the heads of state or elected officials in Congress have become largely irrelevant. Lobbyists write the bills. Lobbyists get them passed. Lobbyists make sure you get the money to be elected. And lobbyists employ you when you get out of office. Those who hold actual power are the tiny elite who manage the corporations“

What do YOU think?

Is Democracy Dead?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.21%	down
NASDQ	+0.20%	down
S&P 500	-0.16%	down
Russell 2000	-0.17%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• All eyes on silver trade yesterday and today as climax buying (LINK to definition) reached a peak yesterday and a meltdown in foreign markets this AM.
• Stocks continued to have abysmal volume, despite the fact that we are in the middle of earnings season.
• Low volume gives Fed’s quantitative easing more influence to move markets up.
• US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for stocks in short term.
• Good contrarian article on the possibility of a dollar rally. This would hurt stocks. Do see possibility of short term rally.
• News of the week  - Bernanke speaking after the Fed Meeting Wednesday (Thanks to EW for mentioning this in comment section of blog)
• What investors want to hear from Bernanke is more quantitative easing or QE 3.
• The big longer term news is the ramification if the dollar continues to fall (See editorial above)

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   -0.17 yesterday. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to +10.47. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

For Silver and Gold investors - Obviously  these commodities went elliptical or had a climax run. or a blowoff top yesterday. Translation – So many investors bought silver that it ran out of buyers. See SLV chart below and look at the big volume SLV on last Thursday & Friday and the record massive volume yesterday. Look at how far above its 50 day moving average (blue line on chart) SLV is.

Silver is the leader and gold went along for the ride. So it too is taking a hit in sympathy with silver.

Since its peak Sunday night SLV is down almost 10% as I write.

The fundamentals, as described yesterday, have not changed. However, we have to wait for the bears to take a bite out of gold and silver before getting back in. Simply too many folks pilled in too quickly. Perhaps the dust will settle today/a week/ a month/ longer. This is much harder to predict than a climax run. Because the fundamentals are so strong, I look for a shorter rather than longer meltdown.

For Stock Investors – It’s the middle of earnings season and volume was abysmal. That means the Fed’s quantitative easing rules and the bulls have the momentum. One very significant point is the dollar did not rally as silver fell from yesterday’s high. Perhaps it will today and this will negatively impact stocks. Sometimes there is a delayed reaction.

Bottom line is that the dollar down/stocks up trends are still in place, but may be in correction for the next day or two. Bernake’s, first time Fed chair speaks after a FOMC meeting, on Wednesday is a market mover.

For long term traders and everyone –  Arnold, the Terminator’s, famous words for gold/silver – “ I’ll be back” invested in silver/gold. We had a year’s run compressed into a month.

The learning part of all of this is sell into a climax run. Judging from the comments section lots of you did just that.

CONGRATULATIONS

NB – Check out chart of REMX. (Rare Earth Metals) It too had a climax run around New Years day. It reached a high of  @27, then and is now over 28. Consolidating gains after breaking out to a new high.

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers.

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA.
• SLV – Went elliptical and in meltdown

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Positions

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Quite simply the average Joe and Jane across the world are saying do I want to invest in this mess – represented by the dollar?

or

Something more tangible and less corrupt, like gold or silver – It shines.

I’m not saying we are going over the edge into the abyss and I strongly doubt that the dollar is going to go the way of Zimbabwe currency.  But there is dramatic change happening and its happening NOW

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In answer to one of your emails – No Investors411 has not become a gold & silver blog – I just want you to be aware of the trend and the geopolitical ramifications. This trend is VERY related to politics.

Also I hope you make some profit from investing.

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Special thanks to RF for sending in a list of Bernie Sander’s Top 10 corporate freeloaders who pay Little to NO taxes or link here

Rolling Stone Photo – Wall Street Wives

If you haven’t taken your blood pressure medication this AM – Please take an extra dose before reading below.

Wall Street Wives – Matt Taibbi from the Rolling Stone has come up with another jaw dropper. Remember Geithner and Bernanke’s Wall Street Bailout. Seems that the “wives of   JPMorgan bigwigs walked away with $220 million dollars.” Opening line of editorial – “Most Americans know about that budget. What they don’t know is that there is another budget of roughly equal heft, traditionally maintained in complete secrecy“

The Closing Government Soap Opera. – Remember all the media attention of the $38 billion the Republicans were supposedly cutting from the budget. Two days ago the press went bananas when they found out it was only $14 billion. Yesterday the non partisan CBO put the actual figure at $353 million. Yes, that’s million with an M.

Crony Capitalism - It’s simply not fair to put the blame on the real housewives of of Wall Street or JPM. Now that the Fed was forced to open its books we find out the real husbands at Goldman Sachs got (See Matt Taibbi’s piece) $800 billion from the Fed. Yes, that’s billion with a B.

Get out of Jail Free - The US Treasury Department actually used hash language toward shadow bankers in a sternly worded proclamation Remember the phony foreclosures, robocalls etc. reveled months ago. Billions evaporated thousands lost their homes. Bankers got a tender tap in their wrists. The NYT has finally caught on and its headline story is on No one from Wall Street goes to Jail

GE is to return $3.2 billion tax rebates!? The whole AP story turned out to be a hoax. YOU pay taxes, GE doesn’t. – Bummer

The Prestigious Pinocchio Award. The Japanese government has been less than than honest about the nuclear reactor situation. FYI – TEPCO has just confirmed reactor 4 is open air fussion. YANKEE BOB is back in the comments section (scroll down) with an editorial. Here’s a sample – “the gamble with public safety to use Nuclear energy to boil water has failed.”

Maybe we’re more than just a morsal for Wall Street sharks. EW in the comments sections saw Obama’s deficit speech as hopeful – Obama quotes “There’s nothing serious about a plan that claims to reduce the deficit by spending a trillion dollars on tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires,” …. “There’s nothing courageous about asking for sacrifice from those who can least afford it and don’t have any clout on Capitol Hill. And this is not a vision of the America I know.”

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Today a format change to focus more time on three investments for the 2nd quarter. But first here’s market news

• Fed’s ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) & QE 2 is sustaining stock rally and forces anyone who wants a high yield is forces into higher risk stocks,  or junk bonds.
• Yesterday’s action was no more than a pause (slight uptick) and we’re close, but haven’t reached oversold levels or a buy the dip level yet
• Paul often makes closing remarks in the comments section of the blog. From yesterday – “If any of you folks like to study the charts, you’ll see on many of the major indicies a clear “double top’ and that often signals coming hell fire and brimstone’s”

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Three Top Investment Areas

Rare Earth Metals - REMX (link to chart)

REMX is the ETF that tracks the major rare earth metal companies. Most data below is from Van Eck Global owner of REMX ETF.

This is a simple supply/demand story. The demand outstrips the supply. China currently provides 97% of rare earth metal production. InDec. of 2010 China announced it would cut exports of rare earth metals 35% because to keep some for their own use. REMX has only 17% exposure to china. It takes a long time to mine these metals so many of the companies REMX invest in have yet to become major producers. Obviously the companies/mines outside China are ramping up production as fast as possible.

Some applications for Rare earth metals include hybrid cars,steel alloys, wind turbines, flat screen TV’s, jet engines & cell phones. So you can understand the demand.

Downside risk – If we fall into a second recession or depression REMX will suffer. However it should outperform because of the supply/demand issue.

Gold - GLD & DGP (2x or ultra long gold)(both ticker symbols are links to charts)

GLD & DGP (2X) are the ETF’s that track gold prices. Obviously DGP carries twice the risk/reward.

Arguably the #1 source for gold information is GFMS Reuters last week featured their supply/demand analysis on both gold and silver. The fundamentals are relevant, but we all know, gold prices move higher on fear of the future.

I follow Jesse’s Cafe Americain on both gold and silver. The technical analysis and inside information is superb. In the future Investors411 will give updates from this site.

Silver – SLV & AGQ (2x silver) (both ticker symbols are links to charts)

SLV & AGQ are the ETF’s that track silver prices. Obviously AGQ carries twice the risk/reward.

Silver has more industrial uses. Links to important information on silver above.

If you are considering investing in this area or just want a good laugh you have to watch one of the two bears videos on silver. “You want me to buy more silver? Holy s–t man I’m going to s–t my pants.”

Paul would be a great source on individual gold, silver and rare earth companies if you are interested ask. MCP is the one company that I like in rare earth field. We almost put this on YOUR Stock List #4, but decided REMX would cover the sector.

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Positions

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Gold

Government Shut Down

The absolute hight of stupidity.

• Issue #1 is jobs, job, jobs. Without jobs there is no one to pay taxes. Those that have no jobs drain the system by needing more welfare or becoming thieves to survive. Stupid
• They are arguing over $30 billion when the debt is $13 trillion. This is like arguing over a crum that fell on the floor instead of the huge loaf of bread that is our debt. Stupid

One Solution – “We have a one-time, 100 percent tax on all wealth (net worth) of all United States residents, with a $10 million per-person exemption. With household wealth at around $60 trillion, that should be plenty to pay off the accumulated debt and shore up Social Security and Medicare for the next century.” and it would fund all those wars that the military industrial complex needs to grow.

Don’t like that idea- another “The Federal Reserve creates $20 trillion in money but, instead of crediting it to large banks’ accounts at the Fed, it credits it to Treasury’s account. Again, no more debt “

Promise that either one would be a one time fix and debt crisis solved. These “convenient concepts” come from the brain of James Kwak at the Baseline Senerio.  For more and is he serious? - here’s the link

Gold and Silver

For the last five years I’ve been the treasurer of a senior center and gold has been our top returning investment.

If you’ve never seen these two bears make a case for something you’re missing a funny and sometimes enlightening video. You may not agree with the doomsday people. I think their case is over the top. But, they do have some valid concepts or flows (moving in that direction)

This is #5 in the series of why by silver. Did you know there are 15 kilograms of silver in each tomahawk missile?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.58%	up
NASDQ	+0.72%	up
S&P 500	+0.67%	up
Russell 2000	+1.31%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Yawn – Another low volume rally. Fed liquidity has a muzzle muzzle on the mouths of bears.
• Any bears or black swans who have fought this trend or spoken out against it have been slaughtered by Uncle Ben and the Fed.
• Another $5 billion pumped into economy – Oh and by the way the Fed is now , by far, the biggest holder of US debt
• Fed POMO all comes to an end on June 30th. – Whose going to buy our bonds/debt then? Of course after July 1 happens, the Fed could say OMG lets do QE #3.
• Enjoy the rally while it lasts.
• Big Jobs number on Friday. Means much more for the economy than it does for stocks, Every day foreign consumers are gaining wealth and globalized US companies don’t really care who buys.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a wee bit -0.17. Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but it started  a four day bull run that’s stalled out over the last three days and could be turning.  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +42.25. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. Any significant rally would put the MO over +60 = Neutral/Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

MO broke its +30 resistance barrier and usually +60  has historically been the level of change – stocks get too overbought. Now is clearly not the time to buy stocks. But to hold or sell.

However the dollar has become the key metric to watch. The dollar is the trump card. It’s bolded below. There’s a good chance the dollar may have hit a short term top and is ready to fall. This would be bullish especially for gold and silver.

What to watch today - Market movers

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya not good.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading just above its 50 DMA. Very Interesting that this latest rally happened without AAPL’s/technologies leadership. Leading sectors rotated to energy & industrials.
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  A risk, but, this area because of limited supply and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - I’ve jaw boned this for way too long and waited for the right dip, but missed it.  This is a credible long term asset to have. I’d buy any dip. I do own both in other accounts.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Obama on Libya

Here’s the NYT  editorial – basically an favorable review on an overdue speech to nation. Also the far right’s Bill Kristol  kudos from the Weekly Standard – “You’ve Come A Long Way Baby”

Both Popeye and Mama have made a understandable point in the comments section of Investors411 – This is tomahawks instead of teachers we are fostering and there is no clear and present danger to the USA. Many state the obvious – this multilateral action will be judged by wether Ka Daffy goes or stays. Good points -but

But consider a more pragmatic approach. You get there by putting one step after another and moving toward your goal. In the case of Lybia there are concrete steps that should be recognized.

• Nicholas Kristoff in NYT said words to the effect that  you can’t prvent every genocide, but preventing one is a good thing
• This was a multilateral approach (UN & Arab League backing) not a unilateral one like Iraq
• No boots on the ground invasion force, but the use of diplomacy and force.
• Genuine thanks not a phony pulling down of Saddam’s statue directed by a US army psychological operations unit.
• The “Arab Spring” of revolutions across the Mideast would have been endangered if action were not taken.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.19%	down
NASDQ	-0.45%	down
S&P 500	-0.30%	down
Russell 2000	-0.25%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

The QE1 & QE2 chart relative to stock prices that was in yesterday’s Investors411  is now in the Strategy Section

• Another weak volume day. Slightly higher
• Some entity sold big time into close. Otherwise we would have had weak volume & slightly higher
• $99 billion in Treasuries are being sold this week. That’s a lot more than the Fed POMO alone can soak up. Fed usually buys a bit under $6 billion most days.
• Take Advantage of This Bull Market While It Lasts is a worthy editorial from Equity Network Corporation.  Specifically they talk about reacting NOW on the news before it gets rehashed over and over again by media. Precious metals as an inflation hedge is the top call for a bullish year.  I’m not so sure about post QE @ (June 30), but hope they are right.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a wee bit -0.11% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three/four day bull run stalled yesterday.  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell back to +9.78 . Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. Yesterday was no exception – the +30 resistance level was too strong for bulls to break. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Stock markets are dynamic and fluid. Forecasting tools change depending on what kind of market we have. Right now both Fed liquidity injections and High Frequency trading are impacting markets and many traditional tools (like volume) are not working as well as they used to

Bottom Line - Different times demand different forecasting tools.

Both the dollar and the MO have worked well for many many moons. See (click on links) charts above.

Hold Em & Fold Em

If you’ve  followed Investors411 you know we have a proven winner in both The Dollar and the MO as market forecasting tools

• The dollar going down far more often than not translates into stocks going up.
• The MO’s longer term +/- 60 & shorter term +/- 30 are both reasonably accurate points momentum swings the other way (oversold or overbought) The + side of the MO is overbought and the – side oversold.

Investors411 has repeatedly show why markets like seemingly bad news – it means more Fed quantitative easing. There are also key ETF’s to watch (see below) like USO (oil an inverse correlation) and tech leader AAPL that impact markets.

There hundreds, perhaps over a thousand different ways tell YOU – Hold Em or Fold Em. These seem to be working quite well now.

Short Bottom Line – We had our bull run off a -60 on the MO and paused as stocks got overbought. But obviously not all technicals (the MO being oversold/overbought) that moves markets. The headlines like earnings, Japan, Libya/oil, QE 2 are the drives and the technicals are the road signs of when to hold em and fold em.

So right now were in a holding pattern. The MO could fall to buyable levels and rise to fast and we’d have to sell. The momentum seems to be with the bulls.

What to watch today – Market movers

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

UWM - – Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - Dipping has my interest today

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

We are on the cusp of change from NEUTRAL. We could swing back if stocks dip

Propaganda

Remember the US government staged propaganda fabrication the beginning of the Iraq war? An event that American media endlessly exploited. They toppled a statue of Saddam in Baghdad and everything was supposed to be a triumphant victory with garlands of flowers – instead we’ve had endless war.

Glenn Greenwald has another excellent piece on American Media’s complicity in propaganda. The government or ruling oligarchy itself doesn’t have to censor – the media will do it for them. Remember how opposition to the Iraq  was beaten down by cries of patriotism. Nothing’s changed.

Repealing Health Care

The non Partisan Congressional Budget Office has put the “savings of the Obama Health Care Bill at $143 billion through 2019.” Link to story here & here. The American Public is so propagandized over the imperfect health care bill by our media most do NOT realize it would save money. Remember the Tea Party and their uber wealthy backers shouted down reasonable debate using  the biggest LIE of the year – a government takeover of health care.

So if the Tea Party & Republicans are all about cutting the deficit why are they willing to add $143 billion to the deficit as their first pice of legislation?

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.27%	flat
NASDQ	+0.78%	up
S&P 500	+0.50%	up
Russell 2000	+1.18%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Another heavy volume day. – Sure looks like some fresh money is coming back into market.
• Yesterday – A bear raid in commodities, especially  gold & silver (see below)
• Yesterday – ADP (independent company) comes in with a surprise outstanding gains for  jobs last month – +297,000
• Tech general AAPL on three day breakout run = bullish
• “schizophrenic.” pattern (from yesterday) swings back to bulls.
• Big new is still Friday’s monthly government jobs report. +140,000 expected, but many are expecting more because of ADP data.
• Bonds got crushed yesterday – This is bringing money out of bonds and hopefully into stocks.
• Weekly jobs data & retail sales key fundamentals for today.

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The ““schizophrenic.” pattern changed back to the bulls. The bulls case got far stronger because of volume and some surprising excellent jobs data.

A Bear Raid - Mea Culpa. I got caught in a bear trap yesterday. It happens. You learn from it and move on.

As most of you know I strongly believe in setting trailing stops to limit losses. One big big secret in investing is LIMIT YOUR LOSSES.

Two days ago I recognized warned and sold a gold position. Quote from yesterday “firmly believe that yesterday was nothing more than a bunch of traders trying to panic the gold market and drive the price down, so they can buy.”

The bears were coming, but I had missed out on selling my silver ETF that afternoon. I did have a trailing stop in place. The trouble was SLV opened 2% lower and plunged.  I got stuck with a -6% loss because my stop got blown up by both the overnight drop and the rapid decline at the open.

The gold/silver bears got some more amo from the surprising ADP jobs report which sent the dollar higher and that usually pushes gold/silver lower.

Aside - I strongly believe both gold and silver will be higher in the long term. Why –  global economic circumstances continue to deteriorate (Europe, housing, slow return to job growth, a stupid war etc.) , worldwide price inflation kicks in and/or  governments especially the Fed (QE2)  increase the money supply too rapidly.  Not all these have to occur – just some for gold/silver to rise.

Bottom Line – I got caught. So what lesson can be learned. to limit losses. I almost always use a 5 to 7% stop order on everything I buy.

• Buy the Dip – The original purchase was not on a dip and therefore the losses were larger.
• Perhaps more important check in on prices at the close of the day. If you check stocks once a day it should be near the close. If a sector or news has started momentum building then don’t wait for tomorrow because prices could open much lower.

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Positions

• UWM
• SLV - (Silver ETF) Got stopped out at open at 28.41 for -6% loss (see above)
• REMX -(ETF for Rare Earth Metals) Sold 1/2 at 26.12 for +6% gain

Not a great start in ETF trading for the year – +10% in UWM, +3% in REMx (1/2 sold), DGP -3%, & SLV -6% = +4% overall

YSL#3  had an outstanding day yesterday

Under consideration

UCO -(2x oil prices) Very erratic, waiting till correction it settles.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Will consider more on a dip. Paul has posted an excellent piece on Rare Earth metals in comments section. Would consider adding to position if price falls to about 24.

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky because its leveraged 3X. Waiting for larger pull back on both.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - The major shadow banks have the backing of the US government & the Fed. The recent BAC /Treasury/Fannie Freddie decision was the latest in a long line of NOT holding banks accountable and their accounting is non transparent. Remember these are the Shadows that are behind 8 million more Americans being unemployed, the dramatic fall of housing prices and a worldwide “great recession.” Broke out two days ago and pulled back yesterday. Both overbought at this time

DGP – Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Happy New Year

EWZ (Brazil) – Investors411 #1 holding up +117% this year

This issue of Investors411 is the beginning of a 3 part series on ETF’s, stocks & economic forecasts for 2010. It is designed to educate YOU on how to make the same kind of money others have by following some simple investment strategies that Investors 411 has used for years to beat almost all major US indexes for the last 5 years. But first a word about

Avatar and IMAX

I’ve now seen the movie and it is truly jaw dropping . Some of the genius belongs to Director James Cameron and the rest to the Imax (a publicly traded stock) theater technology. To quote Time magazine "Look around! Embrace the movie – surely the most vivid and persuasive creation of a fantasy world ever seen in the history of moving pictures – as a total sensory, sensuous, sensual experience. " It’s like The Wizard of OZ going from black and white to c o l o r .

The IMAX theater concept is an investment choice suggested by one of you.  Right now the stock (which was on our list of YOUR recommendations) is exploding higher (LINK to chart) in HUGE volume. I’m going to nibble on/invest in the first small dip.  It will be hard to top Avatar, but IMAX is the future of movies & 3D TV is on the way.

2010 Economic and Stock Forecasts

Part 1 Positions

For 2010 Investors 411 is going to keep its focus on basically 4  core positions that it has held, throughout most of the last five years. These are the ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds). An ETF allows you to buy a market basket of stocks or an actual commodity for less than it costs to own a mutual fund and it gives you a better tax break because it trades less (buys/sells different stuff) than most all mutual funds. ETF’s also trade like stocks and have NO hidden fees.

The fundamentals behind the choices of these core positions are simple and  explained in greater depth the OVERVIEW section on the top of blog LINK These mega trends include-

• Globalization – The key force that is allowing some countries to develop faster than others.
• Peak Oil – The world has a limited supply of commodities  and we are running out. As we run out these commodities get more expensive.
• Share the Wealth – Countries that have growing middle classes expand faster that counties that have wealth oligarchies that hoard their money.

Over the years these Investors411 core positions have outperformed almost every major US stock index are-

• EWZ – Brazil
• FXI – China
• GLD – Gold
• EEM – Emerging markets

Especially this year Investors411 held a lot of related positions and some stocks. You can find a list of these at the POSITONS section on the top of the blog LINK (check these out NOW before they change for 2010)

Investors411 did stray too far from its core holding – partly because of the enormous swings in the market this year. Top gainer was EWZ held from the beginning of the year (8% of portfolio total holdings) gained +117% . The biggest loss was a STUPID hedge on China (FXI) position. It was made because of fears about the Swine Flu epidemic seriously impacting China. FXP and ETF that is a double short of basically the FXI. Translation – if Chinese stocks go down FXP goes up @ twice as much.  The short term FXP trade (2.5% of portfolio total) lost -13%

Several NEW position may/will be used in 2010

• MOO – Agriculture based ETF – Will outperform because the huge growing middle classes in especially China & India will eat better. Already opened a position here
• EDC – This is an ETF that does 3 times what emerging markets do. Lots of risk here so it will only be bought or sold under specific conditions involving the McClellan Oscillator (see below & more later)
• ROH & TYM – Technology. Again like EDC these two involve lots of risk because they do 2 and 3 times what tech stocks do. Only to be bought/sold under special circumstances and are short term trades. (see above)
• Commodities – There are many ETF’s that are solely based on a commodity like GLD and not based on a company. Diminishing resources and increased demand for these commodities make for a decent investment.
  
• Stocks – Because YOU asked for it some stock positions like IMAX will be suggested. (see last few Investors411)

Tomorrow Economics – The Good ,The Bad, The Ugly - 2010 Forecast

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.03%	flat
NASDQ	+0.13%	up
S&P500	+0.02%	flat
Russell2000-	+0.04%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Weak volume continues. Most technical analysts consider flat trading (stocks have gone basically nowhere for the last few days) after a trend (upward in this case) a sign  that the trend is revering itself (bearish).  The problem here is it is usually accompanied by strong volume.  All in all THIS IS A BORING WEEK for analysis on stocks. YAWN – Investors are waiting for the monthly employment report at end of next week.

Weekly jobless claims number at 8:30 came in better than expected  Weekly claims fall to lowest since 7/19/2008.

The McClellan Oscillator (see below) has wiggle room on the upside but is slightly overbought.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before "Up to flat week" – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +22.57 This is a slightly  Overbought Position. This chart has recently formed a series of higher highs and higher lows over the last 5+ weeks.  So it looks like there is a possibility of one more swing higher before we get to a clear oversold position (over +60).

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

Resource for ETF’s -MSN Money has 821 ETF’s listed according to performance 1,4,13 weeks 1, 3 5, years on a 20 minute delay for daily prices. LINK

SELLING & BUYING

One of the ETF’s we are going to use in 2010 is EDC – an ETF that does 3 times what emerging markets do.

Still holding onto all of UWM.

When/If McClellan Index gets back above +60 will sell some more.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Several of you have asked for more on stock positions so the Positions Section will be expanded for the next few days. (see below) All current and some potential positions will be covered technically (with added charts) and fundamentally. See Position Section below.

Will get back to Politics/Economics tomorrow.  There is an important section on Gold below and hopefully we have a guest editorial this week.

World’s largest Gold bar – 250 kg Toi museum Japan

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	+1.29%	up
NASDQ	+1.40%	down
S&P500	+1.36%	down
Russell2000	+1.73%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Big Drop in the Dollar = big rally in stocks

Volume was again anemic. Since this summer all those volume  trading systems (like the one featured on the front page of financial newspaper IBD have been virtually useless) in predicting market direction.  Markets, and human behavior that underlies the market change. So for now volume simply is not a major factor in forecasting how the US market will move.

The Dow did break out to a new yearly high. The Dow is leading because it has the greatest exposure to foreign markets. One of the major questions on Wall Street is - Are emerging markets strong enough to pull the USA out of recession?

FEARLESS FORECAST – Up Week (from yesterday)

GOLD - GLD (ETF for gold) & GDP (ETF that does 2X gold) Investors411 recommended Position

The Russian Central Bank joined India and just bought a whole bunch of gold. This is the second major central bank to buy gold.  Central banks almost always take long term positions and for many years have been dumping gold.  It sure looks like a quantum fundamental shift.  Of course other major players like China have yet to announce a purchase, but more will probably follow. If you are at all interested in GLD or GDP as a long/short term investment See Link

This ETF (see right side of blog for chart) is technically overbought – notice how far away from its blue line (50 day moving average it is)  Too far away (overbought) to buy now. However, India and now Russia have given investors solid fundamental  reasons to buy gold.  If they are net buyers instead of sellers there has got to be an eventual supply problem especially if other central banks join this club.

Buy even small dips or consolidations – Willing to bet you won’t see a dip of over 2% for another week or two. There is also a danger of GLD going parabolic.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell a -84 points yesterday and closed at 4423. The up 16 days in a row streak has been broken. Technically it broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2200 points since late September. 2 down days in a row. We moderated our losses from previous day

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar fell a significant -0.66% Friday. The dollar closed at $75.11 .  As the chart shows in late Oct the dollar fell $7500 and in mid Nov. went a bit below that. Sure looks like another fall in order.

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +1.06 This indicates stocks are neither oversold or overbought in the short term.

Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. (Note 2 added positions)

Positions overview – Investors411 favors Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) For some of the pure monetary reasons these market baskets of stocks are better financial investments click on HELP/EDITOR Section of blog on top. also LINK

Also – I like these market baskets because they are safer. Individual stocks are far more prone to -

• Manipulation by major investors hedge funds, brokerages, banks, rival companies, short sellers etc
• Company Events – the CEO could die, a law suit, rival announce new deal or technology, corruption etc.
• Major world Event – war, assassination of major political figure, huge geological disaster will impact both ETF’s and individual stock.
  

You could spend a couple hours each week going over all the fundamentals of each company. But, this is a suckers play.  Major investors and brokers have teams spending hundreds of hours analyzing individual stocks. Do you or do you  have someone watching computers 24/7 for every time a story about the company hits the web on that company.

Therefore, I try not to own stocks or try to make owning stocks a short term play (preferably less than a month). Less chance for an unexpected disaster. I cover some of these because YOU like stocks and I occasionally see a benefit that outweighs the risk. Of course there are some of you who know how to sell puts against downside risk and that tends to give you a better chance of NOT loosing your shirt.

So Let’s start with STOCKS Both Investors411 short term positions and potential investments. Remember its Important to know when you are going to sell. Remember KISS – Keep It Simple Stupid – I don’t drill down into lots of the fundamentals.

NVS – Novartis – LINK to Char t -

• Fundamentals – Novartis is a European Drug company with lots of decent products. It is a big Swine Flu prevention producer and that makes it hot. The dollar has gone done yet this European company has gone up (see technicals/chart)
• Technicals – Wow this is a great chart. Look at the steady trend. NVS moves in almost a straight line above its 50 day moving average (blue line)
• Buying/Selling -  Investors411 has taken 1/2 its profits NVS +12% and let the rest ride. We’re up @ + 19% now.  Will sell in Dec. when Swine flu is supposed to be worse. Considered selling yesterday because technically the stock is too high above its blue line (50 day moving average). If you want to get in – risks are greater now than in Oct when it was recommended. Wait for a dip like last Friday (see chart)

AMZN Amazon  – LINK to Chart

• Fundamentals – Amazon is an Internet retail giant that has three major advantages. Lower costs than major box retailers, no or little sales tax, growing internet use.  Add to this folks are afraid of the Swine Flu and say just 10% decide to stay home and use AMZN than risk those coughing crowds. AMZN should sparkle.  Remember Americans over react to fear mongering.
• Technicals – AMZN had a big move higher on its last earnings report. A “buy the dip” pullback in around 11/1 & another last Thrus./Fri.
• Buying/Selling – Investors411 sold 1/2 the position for an +11% gain and let the rest ride. Now up @ +14% Will sell in December. If you want to get in – of course the risks are greater now, but there is probably at least on more move higher. AMZN did (just barely) close at anew high. Buy the dip.

CSCO Cisco - Link to Chart

• Fundamentals – CSCO also had blow out earnings report and said they would be adding jobs. They made a major acquisition in the hot telecom area. It looked like the internet picks and shovels player would break out.
• Technicals – CSCO advanced like most internet companies, but failed to move higher like AMZN & others after the initial push higher. The Dow is at a new high and CSCO is still flat.
• Buying Selling – Sold all of CSCO for -1% loss a week ago. CSCO could move higher but there are a lot of other potential fish in the sea.

Tomorrow some of those other potential fish in the sea – stocks and later in the week ETF’s

Long Term Outlook - We are on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Iran

What was supposed to be demonstrations marking the 29th anniversary of the Iranian revolution turned into a night and day that members of the Green Revolution let their voices ring out. Professor Juan Cole’s website has details and video. Its heatening to see so many protest (“huge crowds”) despite those that have disappeared into Ahmadinejad’s Iranian prison system. LINK

Vietnam & Iraq/Afghanistan – Optimism

Even though many including this blog have focused on the negatives surrounding the “unjustified” invasion of Iraq and long term consequences,there are some major reason for long term optimism.

In Vietnam we used chemical weapons (agent orange) carpet bombing and even resistance was slow to organize. These weapons were not used in Iraq. Democracy was insisted on by Sistani (the #1 Shia religious leaders) and after a year of demonstrations the US relented. In Afghanistan the poll numbers have already turned negative LINK This poll was before the election debacle.

In no way does this excuse our growing nation building disaster in the Mideast under Bush and Obama. But, it is a long term ray of sunlight in an otherwise dark cloud.

US Elections

Republicans won two governorships in NJ and VA formerly held by Dems. The Dems won a congressional seat in NY – formerly heavy Republican district.  Overall a better night for Republicans and bottom line is about the economy.  Three out of mainstream observations

• NJ Democrat Gov. candidate was a mucky muck at Goldman Sachs.  GS & Wall Street are loved about as much on Main Street as the New York Yankees outside NY metro area.
• The “conservative” running in NY congressional race considered radical right wing FOX commentator Glenn Beck “his hero.”  He had huge support from the “tea bagger” or dominant wing of the Republican party.
• Long time incumbents spent huge money and had difficulty getting elected – example mayors Bloomberg in NYC and Menino in Boston.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	-0.18%	down
NASDQ	+0.40%	down
S&P500	+0.24%	down
Russell2000	+1.46%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

This is the last post for the week

Friday’s jobs report is the news for the week .  What we have is an oversold market going nowhere. Wall Street term for this is “churning.” Because we are so oversold a good jobs number (loss less than 200,000) would probably move market higher.  Oversold also limits downside risk.

Best Read of Tea Leaves – We will not get a sub 200,000 number.

For traders – A high unemployment figure means the stimulus will keep flowing  and I’d buy the dip. Even though everyone is watching Friday’s employment figure – keep an eye on the dollar. If we have a significant break through of the resistance level expect a meltdown in stocks as the dollar rises.

In Asia and Europe oversold markets rallied last night, so this could carry a positive bias to the USA today.

FOMC meets to day – expect no change.  Any changes in wording would be negative and a shock.

The Dollar War - (Part 2) The big news of the day was India buying $6.7 billion dollars worth of gold from the International Monetary Fund. This is an investment in gold not dollars. Still, obviously central banks did buy enough dollars to halt any dollar decline yesterday.

FYI - Best 25 preforming stocks since Obama’s election LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 24% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose a significant +62 points yesterday and closed at 3247. The rate of change is diminishing slightly. A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed The BDI has rallied almost 1100 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose a modest -0.12% yesterday. The dollar closed at $76.33 . The dollar did briefly rise above its 50 day moving average.  The dollar is technically doing what prices do in front of major resistance/support levels – hesitating. The longer it hesitates the better the chances for reversal.

From yesterday – The next important resistance level for the dollar is the falling 50 day moving average (blue line on chart). This is at $76.67 this AM . So dollar is only 0.34% away from major resistance. It’s the line in the sand – Best read of the tea leaves is that it will hold. In fact, Investors411 will add to some positions  as we get close to this resistance level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Our major core positions into weekend. (See Monitor’s post in comments section)

NB  – These core positions have been long term positions for years and are STILL OUTPERFORMING the benchmark S&P 500 – For more see overview section

GLD – Gold rose a significant 2.41% and broke out to a new all time high in huge volume. This was based on the news of India buying a huge hunk of the shinny yellow stuff. (buy the dip)

EWZ – Brazil – has gone up too far too fast and was overdue for a correction. (see past updates)It had about a 10% correction (see chart) and its 50 day moving average is acting as strong support.  Think those of you who bought the dip will be rewarded in the long run.

FXI – China -  too recetly had almost had a 10% correction, another buy the dip opportunity.

Both China and Brazil could go lower if the jobs number is bad or the dollar rises too high. They go down faster than US markets, but rise much faster than US markets. The BDI recent move higher is favorable for both.

Considering diversifying into Indonesia & Vietnam ETF’s Also, for traders as an individual stock AMZN – great technicals& fundamentals, but also a swine flu play. If the flu ends up keeping folks housebound AMZN should profit. (more on Monday) It is currently dipping.

Concerns – 10 even 20% corrections are healthy for FXI and EWZ in the long term. Yes, these and other emmerging markets are recovering fundamentally far faster than the USA. But anything that goes up to too fast forms a bubble and they burst.

SPX – Selling entire position as soonas I get back from art show – taking profits and freeing $ for other investments.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!