The Best & Worst of Investors411-March

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Psychologist Kahneman & Pandemic expert Brilliant

Economics, Politics – Editorials

The Best

1. The Israeli/American nobel prize winning father of behavioral economics Daniel Kahneman video on how one memory of a longer term experience can impact YOUR happiness and pain. (Thanks to one of you who discovered this valuable presentation) LINK
2. Perhaps the world’s most renowned epidemiologist Dr Larry Brilliant video His case for “Informed Optimism” is outstanding and different from the 3/22 video LINK. His case for how poverty causes worldwide epidemics, from Small Pox to Ebola, and those that are doing something about it impacts everyone.
3. The Cleveland Clinic’s Dr. Cosgrove’s interview in Fortune magazine brought new insight into the health car debate. Of course health care is going to cost more as the huge baby boomer demographic gets older and technology simply gets better at treating illness. However the root causes of American’s self indulgent problem is “Obesity, Smoking,  & lack of exercise” LINK

The Worst

1. In general – I sensationalize. From headlines like “Baby Killer” to “The Black Widows” I do this first to attract your attention
2. Stereotyping one side in a debate is just plain over the top. My excuse – sometimes you just get sooooo angry that emotions overwhelm logic.
3. Too much time is spent on pointing out what’s broken and not enough on how to fix it. Although long term readers, of Investors 411 should notice that”s changed over the years. There’s a lot more HOPE or SOLUTIONS (Kahneman, Brilliant, & Cosgrove) but there’s still more to go.

Stocks

The Best

1. The March 5th upgrade to Cautiously Bullish -US Markets have gone from negative to over a 5% gain when they open tomorrow.
2. YOUR Stock List – It’s time consuming to produce but offers a wealth of ideas. Lead by SHOO and IMAX many have had solid runs higher this month.
3. (these are from past months) Introduction of McCellan Oscillator (it works on broad markets, but nothing works forever and its certainly not 100%) and IMAX (recognition of 3D technologies potential)

The Worst

1. Prediction – Obamacare’s passage was going to hurt the US  stock market. !00% wrong. People’s mouth(Right wing investment community) were in one place, but there money was in another. If anything Obamacare juiced the markets, because the rally blinked for a 1/2 hour then continued.
2. Reluctance to be more fully invested. For longer term investors still think this is good. Nothing’s been fixed financially, the problem has been underestimated & hidden, and there are more shoes to drop. However for riskier investors who have the time, discipline, and understanding to be in and out of a stock/ETF within a day, week, or month(s) its a mistake.

Behavioral Economics

Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman is “widely regarded as world’s most influential psychologist” who is also the father of Behavioral Economics. “The Riddle of Experience vs. Memory.” is a very powerful & worthwhile video presentation on understanding why/how your perception of happiness and pain are impacted by memory vs. experience.  The Q&A at the end is especially significant.

From stocks to politics reality is one thing but how you experience that realty determines your action. Investors411 has reference Kahnenman in the past and will in the future.

Millions in America are addicted to pompous windbags screaming and ranting. Kahneman has scientific and logical insight into something that might actually help make you HAPPIER.

Make Markets Be Markets

In less than 18 days we handed out almost $800 billion to financial shadow institutions. In 18 months of the Bush & Obama administrations we have done nothing to fix the problem. The Roosevelt Institute featured a conference on financial reform with perhaps our best hope for some sort of protection Elizabeth Warren as one of the feature speakers.  Lots of other significant personalities attended

Health Care’s Last Stand

Here today’s NYT Editorial on health care – “Congressional Democrats can either move forward legislation to fix this country’s broken health care system or throw away a once-in-a-generation opportunity.”

Many of you over the past year have posted comments on this. Including the last one from Popeye (a public option supporter) who thinks “we are kicking a dead horse”

Personally, this legislation does not “fix” health care – it is way too watered down. But, the NYT is right – you will see no significant reform for a generation if it does not pass.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Another day that saw stocks rally and fold at the end of the day. Investors are selling into the rallies because the general market conditions are oversold. = Bears taking over.

The big data point is tomorrows jobless number.

Investors clamored to buy Greek debt. Good news for Greece and European Union. But this problem is far from over.

Overbought markets can be very sensitive to bad news.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell to +54.74 yesterday We are now just below +60 or Overbought territory. Still time to seriously consider selling into any rallies.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

• recently bought (added to) EWZ (Brazil) was sold at 72.00 Sold the shares bought on 2/11 for 65.75 Still holding onto shares bought last year at 59.5.  @+6% profit
  
• IMAX – Sold 1/2 the shares when it hit stop/loss order at 13.4.  @+6% gain. Wish I had sold earlier into the rally as I suggested.

Investors411 has sold the rest of TYH. & 1/2 of MOO, EWZ & IMAX. Will sell more positions if McClellan rises significantly. Plan to buy if it drops. Will probably buy some at $NYMO (McClellan Oscillator) reaches zero.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING