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Congressional Budget Office

The non partisan CBO came out with its report on Health Care. Both Republicans & Democrats endorse the CBO reports when it favors their side in whatever debate. Here are some of the major points on the proposed plan

• Increase costs by $940 billion and cut costs by greater $1,078 billion over first 10 years = net federal deficit saving of $138 billion
• Cut deficit 1.2 trillion next 10 years
• Adds coverage for 32 million Americans
• Closes “doughnut hole.” – no longer a gap in senior coverage

Basically it covers 95% of Americans and cuts deficit by over $1.3 trillion over next 20 years – WAPO’s Ezra Klien. Many analysts feel that this would increase medicare solvency by 9 years

Is Support for Health Care Reform Changing?

Nate Silver, the best poll analyst out there says yes. The center and the left are moving toward Obama on this. Last look at betting site Intrade showed a 78% possibility of bill passing.

The Devil is in the Details

There is a big give away to Louisiana, because they have a Dem. Senator up for reelection and more will come out.   Hopefully they can be changed later. The obvious downside is that this increases the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have. Therefore the exorbitant  17% of our  GDP that goes to Health Care will NOT significantly change

Catholic’s Supporting Health Care

Several major Catholic groups (Catholic Health Organization most notable) are now supporting health care. It’s dawned on them that we are the abortion capital of the world and covering more people will REDUCE abortions as it has in other counties. Thanks to JAB bringing this up in comment section of blog. See JAB’s and other comments  on the right side of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

US markets went all over the place yesterday and on the whole ended up flat in decreased, weak volume. This is probably due to options expiring today (the 3rd Friday of the month).

There was some bad news out of Greece

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell significantly to +30.01 yesterday. 0 is Neutral and +60 or Overbought territory. The recent high three weeks ago was 75.33 StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Once again the NYMO has fallen back down to its support level at 30. While it is much safer to make investments when conditions are oversold (-60) if we are in for a long term rally those willing to take bigger risks could nibble the dip here.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Repeat from Yesterday – “Going to build up to a 20% position in stocks involved with 3D technology

. “IMAX, DWA, RGC & CNK In one sense Investors411 will be building its own market basket of stocks (like an ETF) on the potential of 3D technology.

Many of the Stocks on YOUR stock list are great, perhaps even better than the 3 D plays. The difference is fundamentally 3 D has shown it has pricing power. People around the world will line up to pay an extra 20 to 40% to see a 3D film. Think people will go to movies even if we have another leg down economically. I simply have not had the time to go over the fundamentals of the other stocks. Remember AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Investors411 ETF positions are currently under performing the benchmark S&P 500 FXI (China) MOO (Agriculture stocks) & EWZ (Brazil – just a bit under) In one sense technically after many years of out performing this was bound to happen. Investors411 has also cut way back on major foreign investments from highs @ 25% each to 5%.

Three significant reasons US markets are outperforming other foreign  markets

• Obama’s health care reform does nothing to break the monopoly of the insurance and drug companies. If anything it makes them more $ by covering more people.
• Financial reform of greed based capitalism proposed by Senator Dodd (D. CT) is very weak and does little to increase transparency.
• Core inflation is well under control From today’s Seeking Alpha – “Thursday’s BLS report on CPI showed core inflation at 6-year lows, up just 1.3% over the recent 12-month period. The main reason for this: The price of ’shelter’ remains depressed, up only 0.3% YoY.”

Bottom Line – No real reform means another bubble is inevitably building in our greed based (as opposed to rules based) capitalist system. Home prices remaining depressed means the US Fed will keep shoveling money into the system builds both the economic bubble and stock prices.

Investments – There are going to be more short term (when we are closer to overbought) and longer term (when we are oversold) trades involving ETF’s like TYH that do 2 & 3x what an index does.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Mad Hatter/Johnney Depp frm Alice

Will Technology Save Us?

Using fancy complex technology to do shadow bank financing certainly facilitated a global financial meltdown.  However, having now seen Tim Burton (a gifted director) Alice In Wonderland in IMAX 3d I’ve fallen through the looking glass over advancements in 3 D technology again.  Two new films “Dragons” (saw previews to this and would consider flying to Fargo ND to take my grandkids to this film) and “Titans” are fighting it out with Alice for the limited number of 3D screens. There are 24 more 3D movies on the way this year.

Health Care’s Last, Last Stand

Like in the Terminator movies Arnold just kept coming and coming after you. Sometimes he was the good guy sometimes the bad.  Well, yesterday ultra lefty congressman Dennis Kucinich flip flopped and now may be Obama’s  St Patrick day’s luck charm on health care. For more see Health Cares Last Stand (scroll down)

Damage Control

The Catholic Church brings many people closer to God and has fought for many social justice issues.  However, this whole business about pedophile priests has been a nightmare that they have made worse because they just have little concept of how to do damage control.  Sure these events are horrific but stop trying to cover it up or whitewash everything. More here & here & here Then again basically ignoring is a form of damage control.

Off With Their Heads

Ted Kaufman is now by far the strongest Senator is calling for reform on Wall Street. Bravo. WSJ article & MIT’s Simon Johnson’s  “Fraud Still at the Heart of Wall Street.” on Kaufman. Perhaps we should do what they did to the head of North Korea’s financial chief -  When he messed up - He got executed.

Baseball = Evil, Football = Good

The reality is sometimes more socialist systems do work better than capitalist systems in generating revenue. Hard to argue in the USA institutionally baseball is in decline while football is rising. Big market teams win, get fans and revenue. Small makets almost always loose, fands leave and so does revenue.  In football they have a strict team salary cap and strict progressive draft system. Their stadiums are almost all full, their championships and media rating are skyrocketing.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Volume was moderate and up a wee bit, as stocks advanced yesterday. Volume is half heartedly confirming a much less than stellar two day rally. This short rally was built on a two week low volume rally. Technically as we again approach oversold levels, volume, the #1 confirmation factor of a price move, is giving us a slightly bullish signal

Since the Oscillator Investors uses is not yet overbought we have some wiggle room for stocks to move higher in the short term.

Technicaly, this its like there is a whole group of soldiers assaulting a barricade (pushing out to even higher highs). These soldiers seem to be moving very slowly for a charge, but progress is progress.  Once we hit oversold territory progress should slow even further.

Fundamentally “stocks could pick up steam today because of weekly jobless claims (better than expected) and “quadruple witching” (don’t worry if you do not know what quadruple witching is but it is fascinating to see all those traders flying around the NY stock exchange on their broom sticks)

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose to +51.86 yesterday. We still under, but getting close to +60 or Overbought territory. The recent high two weeks ago was 75.33 StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From yesterday – “I’m going to try to play TYH again on a small dip (if it happens) and sell it when markets get oversold. Again I’ll have a tight 3% stop.  The mistake was not to invest in a stock or ETF yesterday after it became obvious that US markets were reacting positively to what the Fed said at 2:15 EST.” Missed out when TYH dipped in the AM because I was doing taxes – bummer. The window is closing on this short term play the closer we get to oversold. Would have to see a 1 to 2 % drop in TYH to consider entering trade again today.

Going to build up to a 20% position in stocks involved with 3D technology. They can’t build 3D theaters fast enough to keep up with the demand. 3D TVs started being sold last month and a 3D channel is supposed to begin within a year.  See Tuesday’s Investors411 for more. (use calender on top of blog and click on Tuesday 5/16 then scroll down)

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Dylan Ratigan

No Brainer TAX

Senators Jim Webb (D) and Barbara Boxer (D) are offering a NO BRAINER tax that many other countries have already enacted.

If your company took over $5 billion of the TARP funds (our tax money) all bonuses over $400,000 would be subject to a 50% tax for the years you held our TARP money. The only reason these companies exist is because of  the TARP bailout, borrowing trillions at @ 0.00% from the FED (means future inflation for you) and have been allowed to drop transparent mark to market accounting.

You’d think a 50% tax on just the bonuses over $400,000 for the top executive would fly through congress like far more stringent taxes have in other countries like Britain. But YOU hear almost nothing about it because of the lobbyists and their tight control over the media. Dylan Ratigan on MSNBC (4:00PM EST) yesterday carried an interview with Senator Webb (D-VA) It seems in their first attempt they could not even get this on the floor of the Senate for a vote.

YOU get the bill and the wealthy that screwed you get the Bonus – Only in America and third world dictatorships does this happen.

Health Care

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

• The Good-The proposed Heath car plan under Obama will cover an additional 31 million Americans. Perhaps we will no longer be #1 on the list of “western” countries in which preventable deaths occur. One Republican’s  plan covers 3 million additional Americans. Its better than zero.
• The Bad – At best long term, the Obama plan may very very slightly limits the 17+% and growing amount of GDP we spend on health care. Obama administration long ago sold out to the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have in the USA.
• The Ugly -  Totally political congress that is only interested in getting elected instead of solutions  and lack of leadership from Obama have prevented real solutions that are working – a public option or universal health care that dozens of other countries have voted to keep for decades.

Yes, we have the best health care system in the world - If youyou’rer a Saudi Prince, uber wealthy foreigner, know someone, or are a wealthy American you actually get to use the best system in the world. Forget it if you’re an average Joe and Jane American.

Whipcongress.com has  kept the drive for a public option alive – 40 Senators have signed on – YOU can help.

Dylan Ratigan

Dylan, used to be the anchor and co creator of CNBC’s “Fast Money” and now has his own show on MSNBC.  He has both financial skills and is unafraid to nail any politician or industry unlike the corporate lapdogs of CNBC. As stated above his show is on at 4:00 PM EST.  One of his recent editorials on Corporate Communism in Heath Care and Banking. is a Must Read.

As Americans, I believe we reject communism because it historically has allowed a tiny group of people to consolidate complete control over national resources (including people), in the process stifling competition, freedom and choice. It leaves its citizens stagnating under the perpetual broken systems with no natural motivation to innovate, improve services or reduce costs.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

A decent rally collapsed into yesterday’s close. We rallied a bit in the last 10 minutes to close in the green. Volume was up & above average. The benchmark S&P 500 came within @ 0.40% of reaching anew 18 month high. The NASDQ and Russell 2000 are already at new highs, but it has NOT been the typical big volume breakout that usually signifies the continuation of a major rally.

US markets need some fundamental push to breakout before the bullish momentum runs out of steam.

• Perhaps good news from weekly jobless claims Thursday.
• Perhaps the increased exports/imports just announced by China will lead markets higher, China is not nearly as close to or at  a new highs like US, Britain and some other countries. Worries over a developing housing/office space glut/bubble are holding back investors.
• Perhaps it will be the financial sector (XLF the ETF) that almost broke out yesterday. – Attempts to regulate this sector are getting weaker.
• Perhaps the Dollar will fall. This would mean the Euro would get stronger.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator dropped a bit to +6o.89 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
• BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule Two days ago the BDI, like stocks, leveled off in front of a strong resistance level. Yesterday it fell.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Mantra – Since the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) is still over +60, or overbought -  Right now,  selling (taking profits) is more desirable than opening new positions because of the short term over bought conditions. Positions:

• 6% EWZ (Brazil)
  
• 5%MOO (agriculture ETF)
• 5%FXI (China)
  
• 3% IMAX – In a HUGE explosion higher right now

All three ETF positions are currently under performing US markets.  They are 5 to 10% from their old highs. Will sell more if NYMO gets above +80. Will nibble on THY & other positions if NYMO falls to @+20

Answer to Monitor’s comment - Congratulations on using  YOUR Stock Picks wisely and making a killing, I know others who have used the list and sent personal emails are also doing well.  See comments section on side of blog.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Behavioral Economics

Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman is “widely regarded as world’s most influential psychologist” who is also the father of Behavioral Economics. “The Riddle of Experience vs. Memory.” is a very powerful & worthwhile video presentation on understanding why/how your perception of happiness and pain are impacted by memory vs. experience.  The Q&A at the end is especially significant.

From stocks to politics reality is one thing but how you experience that realty determines your action. Investors411 has reference Kahnenman in the past and will in the future.

Millions in America are addicted to pompous windbags screaming and ranting. Kahneman has scientific and logical insight into something that might actually help make you HAPPIER.

Make Markets Be Markets

In less than 18 days we handed out almost $800 billion to financial shadow institutions. In 18 months of the Bush & Obama administrations we have done nothing to fix the problem. The Roosevelt Institute featured a conference on financial reform with perhaps our best hope for some sort of protection Elizabeth Warren as one of the feature speakers.  Lots of other significant personalities attended

Health Care’s Last Stand

Here today’s NYT Editorial on health care – “Congressional Democrats can either move forward legislation to fix this country’s broken health care system or throw away a once-in-a-generation opportunity.”

Many of you over the past year have posted comments on this. Including the last one from Popeye (a public option supporter) who thinks “we are kicking a dead horse”

Personally, this legislation does not “fix” health care – it is way too watered down. But, the NYT is right – you will see no significant reform for a generation if it does not pass.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Another day that saw stocks rally and fold at the end of the day. Investors are selling into the rallies because the general market conditions are oversold. = Bears taking over.

The big data point is tomorrows jobless number.

Investors clamored to buy Greek debt. Good news for Greece and European Union. But this problem is far from over.

Overbought markets can be very sensitive to bad news.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell to +54.74 yesterday We are now just below +60 or Overbought territory. Still time to seriously consider selling into any rallies.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

• recently bought (added to) EWZ (Brazil) was sold at 72.00 Sold the shares bought on 2/11 for 65.75 Still holding onto shares bought last year at 59.5.  @+6% profit
  
• IMAX – Sold 1/2 the shares when it hit stop/loss order at 13.4.  @+6% gain. Wish I had sold earlier into the rally as I suggested.

Investors411 has sold the rest of TYH. & 1/2 of MOO, EWZ & IMAX. Will sell more positions if McClellan rises significantly. Plan to buy if it drops. Will probably buy some at $NYMO (McClellan Oscillator) reaches zero.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Paul Krugman

Sorry analysis of  YOUR Stock Watch List took a lot of time this AM  – so little on economics/politics

Health Care

The Baseline Scenario (MIT economists) agrees with NYT Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman on Health Care – No Bill is better than a weak one.

Krugman – “In summary, then, it’s time to draw a line in the sand. No reform, coupled with a campaign to name and shame the people responsible, is better than a cosmetic reform that just covers up failure to act.”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Rally Ho, but in the usual weak volume. The NASDQ did manage to increase its volume but not in any big way. Fundamentally news was not especially good yesterday so there is a bullish sentiment underlying the markets.

We are quickly approaching oversold territory and the higher we get above +60 the more I’d take profits.

Jobs numbers for February come out on Friday

British pound is falling apart.

Why stocks are moving higher - Attempts at serious financial regulations appear to be disintegrating. No health care reform that would lessen cost for Americans and cut profits for insurance companies. Lobbyists dominate both parties in Washington. Dysfunctional federal government means no regulations on stocks. Emerging markets are still growing despite a Chinese housing bubble building.  Obviously low volume indicates that No new investors are coming back into the markets. Many bubble’s building, the question is when they bursts.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Index rose to +53.10 up a whopping  +21.37 points yesterday We are just below +60 Oversold territory. Time to seriously consider selling into any rallies. Especially one like we had yesterday.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

YOUR Watch List of Stocks

Many Thanks!!! to several of you who keep sending in additional lists of prospective stocks. Cannot possible include all of them. The 4 new stocks were chosen because they were on more than one list.  If you have one or a group of stocks – I’d be happy to consider them.

Since the McClellan Oscillator is close to +60, or overbought – buying right now is far more dangerous than when markets are oversold – Its hard for almost all stocks to go against the tide.  The McClellan and other similar Indexes dipped down last week into mildly overbought territory (@ +25) and this gave many of the stocks on our watch list some room to run higher.  But, since the McC. is near +60 we are running out of rally room.

NB -Last Week’s Comments. black. This week violet

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

• CAAS – Lots of volume behind rally days and had big breakout – hold if you own or buy the dip. Big +10.90% move higher yesterday – volume confirming rally – A buy the dip stock
  
• PCLN – Now wait for dip. Breakout 5.22% move yesterday in good volume – A buy the dip stock
  
• F – Flatlining or Forming a base. Breakout 5.71% yesterday in good volume – A buy the dip stock
  
• IMAX - hold if you’re a long term investor Has moved up, but volume weak – Sell  into rally if you are short term trader – wait for pullback to buy.
• GS, Up a bit but volume dropping Not Interested Still weak
• CSCO, Techs new leader Not Interested Like AAPL moving higher – Slower steadier more for longer term investor
  
• SHOO, Great long term chart. Needs breakout – Tempting A 4.02% breakout in good volume yesterday – A buy the dip stock
• ICON, Slow steady move higher with breakout yesterday – A buy the dip Dipped back down and has formed a series of higher lows & higher highs – A buy the dip stock
• VPRT Moved up to breakout level and pulled back yesterday – A buy the dip Up +2.49% yesterday in what could be a breakout – A buy the dip stock
  
• DGIT Thinly traded but had breakout in big volume and is now dipping – A buy the dip Classic breakout and pullback - up @ 5% in last 2 days - wait for next dip
• CTCT Broke out and is in pullback - A little weaker than other choices, but buy the dip Nothing flashy, but building on higher highs and higher lows – Buy the dip
• VCI Major breakout, then rallied more and yesterday big drop – Too volatile for me – Dipped and has made up most of that loss, but in weak volume Tempting, but risky.

YOUR New choices (These were on several different lists) Thanks again for sending in your choices

• CREE – Owned this chip company in the past and on a great long term run. Too overextended to buy now - A buy the Dip stock
• SNDK – A tech flash storage company that had a 11.94% breakout yesterday. Overextended now but Buy the Dip stock
  
• VSH – Most sent in stock. On another breakout,but in weak volume and overextended -  Too risky
• HMIN – Up 4.02% yesterday in breakout, but weak volume. Too Risky

What most of you have chosen are technically high relative strength stocks – stocks that are HOT. Lots of these are Great choices. It looks like we should have another day or two before the overbought markets run out of steam. Sell at their highs and jump back in on the dips.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

The Holy Grail of Fuel Cells?

The Terminator, WalMart’s CEO & Colin Powell

Add the CEO of Google and you have one of the most hyped and perhaps revolutionary product launches in history was launched yesterday – The Bloom fuel cell box – Low cost clean energy whose primary ingredient is sand in now being used by some major US companies. Hard to tell the hype from reality, but if you missed 60 minutes on the Bloom energy box the 3  links above will give you some more information.  Seems like a $3,000 clean energy box in your home will produce electricity at about 1/2 the rate currently charged.  For all its faults America still has the greatest innovators on the globe.

Shooting Shadow Banks

With a clenched jaw President Obama stated about the shadow financial institutions on January 21st – “If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have,” In front of the Business Round Table all that tough talk turned to jello.  Paul Volker & Elizabeth Warren seem to be left out on a limb that is being cut off. Enlightening editorial in New Republic by Peter Boone & Simon Johnson

Health Care Summit Today

Obama’s six hour health care summit is being held today. Dylan Ratigan (MSNBC Show) pointed out that insurance companies in 4 states plan to raise premiums over 20% this year.  For many the Democrats have sold out to the insurance industry and Republican’s simply want to do nothing to prevent Democrats from getting any credit.  Both parties are dominated by lobbyists. Ratigan also has a piece on the Bloom Box yesterday.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

The Terminator, WalMart’s CEO & Colin Powell

Add the CEO of Google and you have one of the most hyped and perhaps revolutionary product launches in history was launched yesterday – The Bloom fuel cell box – Low cost clean energy whose primary ingredient is sand in now being used by some major US companies. Hard to tell the hype from reality, but if you missed 60 minutes on the Bloom energy box the 3  links above will give you some more information.  Seems like a $3,000 box in your home will produce electricity at about 1/2 the rate currently charged.  For all its faults America still has the greatest innovators on the globe.

Shooting Shadow Banks

With a clenched jaw President Obama stated about the shadow financial institutions on January 21st – “If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have,” In front of the Business Round Table all that tough talk turned to jello.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Markets rose and volume fell.  Up days on lighter volume has been the norm for months.  Roughly 80% of the rally days have seen a DECREASE in volume.  This is NOT good in the long term for stocks. About 80% of the previous days losses were made up.

The US shrugged off the bad consumer confidence news two days ago  and financials led stocks higher. (See above) Obama has flipped flopped on getting tougher regulations for shadow institutions so many times I’ve lost count. Bottom Line – nothing’s been done in since he took office. In fact dropping mark to market accounting has made major shadow banks less transparent. Short term this is a boon for stocks, but longer term it just means without transparency or any regulations other financial bubbles will inevitably form.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Index rose to +36.20. We are once again approaching oversold territory.  This looks like a second leg up into an oversold position – greater than +60

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) – These are positions I actually own

Will be lightening up when/if positions reach oversold.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

-

Health Care Debacle

There’s something in human nature that loves it when you can say I told you so.  Health Care reform attempts are crumbling and just like the greedy Wall Street Shadow bankers Anthem Blue Cross of California can’t wait to raise prices 39% on March 1.

Everyone knows that our long term debt problem is centered on a massive growth in military expansion and health care. Obviously unsustainable if you keep cutting taxes. The problem in health care is we spend far more on health care than we get in outcomes There are over two dozen industrialized democracies who pay far less and live far longer.  There may be problems in their heath care systems, but nobody’s voted to go back to a system like the USA’s.

One wonders how much of this 39% increase did Anthem use to defeat health care reform.

71% of Americans – Palin NOT Qualified to Be President

Latest WaPo/ABC News Poll shows Sarah Palin is NOT qualified to be President.

But,  according to those of you who comment on this blog – Is Barak Obama Qualified to be President? – Yes, this blog has been tough on Obama, but does his latest attempt to “begrudgingly” support  big bonuses on Wall Street in the very companies that help cause the meltdown  bring his credibility into question?

Paul Krugman – ” I’m with Simon Johnson here: how is it possible, at this late date, for Obama to be this clueless?“

Greece

The whole world waits to see what’s going to happen with Greek debt. Thee is a big meeting today in Europe. As far as stocks are concerned the sooner this is settled the better.

Greece like the USA and many European markets ran virtually “unregulated free markets”. Credit Default Swaps are still being traded on the bonds that Greece uses to finance its debt.  Someone has to pay for Greece financial system going overboard. Once again the end result will be Socialism for the rich and the working poor will feel the heat.

Dubai had the UAE to bail them out and Greece has France/Germany.  But there are lots of other countries out there who will feel the aftershocks of 2008 USA “unregulated free market” meltdown. Once again socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor who pay and pay and then have their children pay and pay.

.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Basically a nothing day.   The whole world waits to see what’s going to happen with Greek debt. Thee is a big meeting today in Europe. As far as stocks are concerned the sooner this is settled the better. We have a concept, not a specifc plan.  When a plan comes expect a short tem rally.

Greek bailout – Short term good news, but long term bad news. The more the Euro countries have to bail out the lower the Euro goes. Therefore relatively the dollar goes up. This costlier dollar makes our goods cost more in Europe and hurts US exports.

Oversold market’s natural direction is up.

Significant indexes – Forecasting tools for market direction

• McClellan Index fell to -32.47 =Moving away from Oversold. We’ve passed -60 or oversold levels twice recently. When the  McClellan Oscillator gets past those levels its a signal to buy.  The more we are over -60 the better at least a short term buy will come out successful. -32.47 is a better entry point than +32,44, but not as good as -60 or higher and beyond.

Positions

The  Positions Section has the latest buys and sells – Revised positions last weekend) – These are positions I actually own

Thinking about nibbling on ETF’s & stocks (see yesterday) as long as McClellan stays in the red.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

A Frog in Hot Water

The old adage goes – Throw a frog in hot water and he’ll jump right out, but you can slowly bring the water to a boil and that frog will stay put.

A little known Republican State Senator, Scott Brown , won a stunning upset victory in the MA Senate race last night. Like Mitt Romney in 2002, he beat  Dem. Shannon O’Brien, Brown toasted another woman who ran a weak campaign – Martha Coakly.  For perhaps the best analysis of what this means see Nate Silver’s – Let’s Play The Blame Game

Health Care – Obviously in deep trouble. The only way Health Care would pass is if the House passes the Senate Bill. Since Democrats in the House have already voted for a far more progressive health care plan and will get hit for that in the next election Obama is going to argue why not vote for the Senate version.

Bottom Line – Health care. – You blew it – RIP

That Frog in this case is the typical American worker who is in the pot of ever increasing temperature .

• Globalization is slowly eliminating working class jobs across America
• Weapons budgets are growing at the rate of 10 to 20% each year
• For the first time in our history we cut taxes and went to war.
• Our federal and trade deficit exploded from 2000 to 2008.
• The era of cheap oil is OVER. The supply has peaked and the demand from billions of people in emerging markets is growing.
• Because of our suburban sprawl and relative lack of public transportation we are far more vulnerable to high oil prices.
• Time tested solutions like stimulating the economy to fix it will not work as well because of our already huge deficit.
• There fewer and fewer laws to govern excess GREED on Wall St. Main Street has socialized the risk for Wall Street
• The rich in the USA are getting richer and what’s left of the American working class (those not newly unemployed) are paying the bill
• As the situation worsens, self preservation kicks in, and Americans care less and less about others.

The American frog is in a pot that’s getting hotter and hotter.

There is an upside to all of this outside the USA. Hundreds of millions (perhaps billions) in emerging markets are increasing their standard of living. They have or are learning to Manage their capitalism and hopefully not repeat mistakes that were made here.  Greed is a powerful factor and one hopes eventually more democracy will grow abroad.  If Time magazine called the last decade The Decade from Hell for the USA – it could get a whole lot worse for the American frog in this decade.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Stocks staged a major rally (above 1%) in decreased, average volume. Volume, our #1 confirmation factor did NOT confirm the move higher. Even though we achieved some new highs (for a calander year) on 3 of the major indexes we are doing it in reduced volume.

• McClellan Index at +i3.14 = A little bit overbought.  There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or oversold or @ +60 or overbought

IBM reported after the bell and beat top and bottom line expectations. This was not a grand slam, but IBM did solidly better, but lost money in after hours trading.   The important news from IBM which does 60% of its business abroad was that their areas of growth were "Brazil, China, & India."

Even though stocks rallied yesterday still believe in down week.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

YOUR Watch List of Stocks . Unfortunately, I’m not daily checking these stocks out. Ideally, you’d like to McClellan index below zero (the further the better) and these all would be better buys. We developed most of these potential stocks about two weeks ago. Check old Investors411 for more.

Again the problem with buying now is that markets are slightly overbought and you would like stocks oversold position. Click on ticker symbol for chart. Going to limit Watch List to @ 10 stocks.  80% of investments wil be ETF’s 20% stocks.

NB – I feel much more confident with ETF’s because they reflect global trends than individual stock. Too many things can go wrong with individual stocks.

• SEED – In a buy the dip position.
  
• AAPL – big +4.42% rally yesterday. Sitting on breakout point. AAPL moves markets – if this goes higher so does the market.
  
• AMZN – We sold at highs and AMZN has formed lower highs and lows. In bearish mid term pattern. Will drop from list soon
• HMIN - Failed breakout, back at lower end of trading pattern. Will drop from list soon
  
• CAAS – Buy the dip opportunity as CAAS falls to just above 50 day moving average.
  
• PCLN – Buy the dip opportunity
  
• F – Still too over extended to buy
• DRWI – New – Big exporter to China -  Looks great but still too overextended to buy
  
• ENOC – New – Reduces costs for utilities – Great long term chart. formed base for last 5 months moving higher – A buy
• ATHN – New - Software reduces costs for health care - Clear trend higher since June – Buy the dip opportunity
  
• IMAX – Great long term chart – falling back to its 50 day moving average. A buy the dip opportunity

Mistake – I let my emotions over rule logic on IMAX It was too overextended from 50 day moving average to buy at 13.9. So I’ve sold the small position (1% of portfolio I bought at 13.9 for 10% loss) Keeping 1% bought at 12.9 and will add more at lower price.  Perhaps the most important rule of investing learn from mistakes and do not repeat them.

If markets were overbought I’d strongly consider ENOC, CAAS, ATHN, SEED, & PCLN.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs

Perhaps the #1 Shadow Banker

Congressional Wimps

The Barons of Banking went in front of Congress yesterday and what happened the can best be described in the fact that the XLF (The ETF that measures financial institutions) went up +1.13 .  Congress didn’t lay a glove on the Barons of the Shadow Banks. The Foxes are still in charge of the hen house.

The first step in all this is the restoration of  of the Glass Steagall Act . In 1999 the GS act forever changed big banks from conservative institutions to ones that traded financial Weapons of Mass Destruction (Warren Buffett’s words for CDS’s)

As stated before , we’ve even allowed the "too big to fail financials " NOT to have standard mark to market accounting rules.

Its like robbers (an inside job) blew a hole in the side of a bank wall and took money. You – the taxpayer – insured the losses. But the hole is still there and the bank is not telling us what we lost .

Even The National Geographic Magazine

Weighs in on heath care with a chart Other countries have significantly more doctor’s visits, live much longer and cost far less.

"Why the high cost? The U.S. has a fee-for-service system—paying medical providers piecemeal for appointments, surgery, and the like. That can lead to unneeded treatment that doesn’t reliably improve a patient’s health. Says Gerard Anderson, a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who studies health insurance worldwide, “More care does not necessarily mean better care ."

On Tuesday Massachusetts votes for a Senator and basically the election is turning into a referedum on Health Care.

Remember to check out Comments Section.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

We made up for most of the previous days losses, but volume wes lower. The trend over the last few months has been weak volume on up days. Long term this in a bearish trend.

• McClellan Index at 17.92 = Neutral.    @+60 or overbought territory & @-60 or oversold. This Oscillator as formed a strong support @ zero (see chart). It held once again yesterday , if we break though you might see it fall all the way toward oversold territory of -60

Earnings season has begun and Intel reports tonight

The long term bul l is trend is firmly in place – Short term markets are just a wee bit overbought.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Proposed schedule (sorry limited time this AM)

• Monday Fearless Weekly Forecast and focus on multiple charts
• Tuesday and Thursday – Stock Watch List
• Wed. & Friday – ETF’s Wacth List
• Any buy of sell will be immediately mentioned.

Bough another 1% of portfolio of IMAX at 12.9. (plan to add more on another dip)

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

-

2010 Economic and Stock Forecasts

To make an overall forecast let’s look at the past decade and year & the mega trends So here’s the Good, the Bad, the Ugly Almost all the Bad emanates or is focused on the USA

The UGLY

• Nothing’s Been Fixed – In fact the zombie or shadow financials are less transparent because they were allowed to drop standard mark to market accounting. Too big to fail and the systemic risk of one big institutions failure taking down the whole system sill exists. All the Fed and Obama administration (like Bush) has done is give/loan trillions to troubled financials (include AIG, Fannie & Freddie) at incredibly low rates.
  
• Lethal Combination -  Growing debt and growing weapons production -  Imagine you had a neighbor who owned over 1/2 the weapons in town and he was increasing his weapons budget by up to 20% each year.  Now imagine this same neighbors debt was growing by up to 10% each year and he had some huge additional debts coming due. This neighbor is constantly shouting how afraid he/she is and has shown a willingness to fight. The son of this neighbor is an expert at video games based on mass murder. The neighbor to the rest of the world is, of course, the USA
  
• Reality Check – Like Japan who has lost several decades the USA lost the last decade economically for 98% of the population (all but the richest) Future economics is NOT going to be anything like the past – tighten your belt – Era of cheap oil is over, Era of expanding credit card debt is over, era of endless housing boom is over, era of expanding weapons production is growing, era of expanding federal debt is growing, era of globalization negatively impacting US working class growing, era of disfunctional/partisan hate in USA is growing, and the era of the shrinking working/middle class is growing.

In spite of all these negatives we’re still a functioning democracy whose science, education and business sectors know how to innovate. The problem is the hole we dug over the last decade is not going to get filled in a year or two. Perhaps never.

Tomorrow – Conclusion

Health Care

FEAR MONGER - How to get health care passed -Simply put fear mongering works on Americans.

45,000 people in the USA, according to a Harvard study, die from lack of health care each year.

So let’s take 3000 of their bodies each month (@3000 died on 911 &  12 months times 3000 is only 36,000 and less than 45,000 ) and put them in a bomb filled building. Then put other bodies in a bomb filled remote controlled plane and blow up the building each month.  If the explosion and flying body parts were gruesome enough we’d get great coverage. We’d tell everyone anti health care terrorist piloted the planes. Each month we’d have an event like 911. (See photo above) Shock and awe! – Monthly 911’s

On a more serious note – a great graph by Nate Silver on health care costs and life expectancy by country. Also the size of each  circle represents the # of doctor visits.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and most major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Most Sections of blog have been revised or are under construction for 2010 See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes

Markets held onto most of Monday’s gains in decreased volume. 15 of the last 17 Mondays have been bullish/up days. This is an established trend shorter term traders may want to take advantage of. Mergers and mutual funds investing are usually listed as reasons Mondays are strong.

• McClellan Index at +27.30 = A bit overbought. This means we have some wiggle room for US stocks to move higher before they reach +60 or overbought territory or a time to lighten up on positions. There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or a time to add to positions.

Trading – Learn from your Mistakes

Avatar/IMAX – Over the last few week I’ve gone overboard about the IMAX 3d technology and the Avatar film. What I did NOT do is invest directly after the open or when IMAX dipped last week. IMAX in a joint venture is coming out with 3D TV channel in 2011 and the film now has grossed over a billion dollars.

• Mistake – Not buying the dip
• Mistake – Understanding that fundamentally (like NVS with the swine flu scare) IMAX is a technology that has reached a tipping point and going to move higher.

Traders – Two other of YOUR choices SEED & HMIN have had major moves and are also worthy of consideration. I will open a minor position in IMAX, or any of above in a dip . Hopefully, build position into a long term investment

Ideally – You’d like to buy when overall US markets are in an oversold position,

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Results for 2009 +35.5% Results for 2008 -13% See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH