Trust Buster president Teddy Roosevelt – Will Obama show us the same tonight?

Tea Party

“The tea party’s exaggerated importance” is the headline of the  major independent blog editorial blog Politico’s this AM on the “anti Obama rage group” .

Mea Culpa – I do respect the Tea Party because at Investor411 they have won. By focusing attention on their white (in the words of the old Ivory Snow commercial this group is 99 44/100% white)  rage I have taken it away time from facts on the deficit or Health Care.

The NYT’s lead editorial yesterday was on Massachusetts heath care system “which 1/2 of Scott Brown supporters and 2/3 of all Massachusetts residents like.”(paraphrase) according to a poll. 97% of MA residents are covered. For more see “Reform and Massachusetts.”

BRIC

The Economist has a  has an in depth look at the top emerging markets as a real alternative economic force to the European Union & America.  BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China whose leaders are or just finished meeting together in Brazil.  “The Trillion Dollar Club”

The Obama Speech

Tonight’s speech on financial reform is a defining moment. Will Obama be the next Teddy Roosevelt ? (A Republican Trust buster) The short answer is NO. Senate Democrat Ted Kaufman (Dem. DE) is our Teddy Roosevelt – Here’s part 2 of his speech on Wall Street and the Rule of Law

One piece of encouraging news is Senator Blanche Lincoln (Dem  AK) committee has a Republican onboard (Grassly- R IA) for her legislation on derivatives. Lincoln has come up with a stronger bill than other proposals.

NYTs headlines Obama Issues Sharp Call for Reforms on Wall Street If this is true you’ll see a 2 to 5% decline in shadow banks tomorrow. It Teddy Roosevelt or Ted Kaufman gave the speech you’ll see a 5 to 10%+ fall in shadow financials tomorrow.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Market went nowhere yesterday in increased above average volume. What Wall Street calls “churning.” Usually considered a reversal of trend = Bearish

Yesterday’s grand slam earnings reports by giants APPL & BAC (thank you taxpayer bailout, Fed 0% loans, & elimination of mark to market accounting) did little to move markets higher. US markets have reacted poorly to great news indicates  = Bearish

Seeking Alpha this AM has a big section on the problems  China has. Here’s one article . Investors411 has closed its entire China position (FXI).

Earnings reports continue to pour in.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose slightly to -4.91 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. - This is almost right in the middle of NEUTRAL territory
• US Dollar – rose +0.19% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. The positive earnings reports are overshadowing the dollar which is in the middle of a consolidating range between @$80.00 & @$82.20. Dollar at 81.18. If it moves to either side of that range it will impact stocks.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Both Comments from The Critic & Paul R were incorporated in the strategy section of the blog. You can see them by linking here or at any time in the future going to the top of the blog and clicking on the word STRATEGY

Caution – I do on occasion day trade. None of this is part of Investors411. Almost all of you are looking for something to hold for a period of time.

When to Buy? – McClellan Index - Only 8 times in the last year did this index reach below -60 = oversold = a time to buy. Even then tow of those tomes were within a few days of each other. Therefore the total was only 6 times. The last time was back in early February. Its frustrating not to buy or sell, but Investors411 is going to wait till we are oversold to commit major amounts of capital.

UWM – [ETF that does 2x what small cap stocks do] UMW is back in the black and at a new high although only up a couple %. Almost closed this position. Going to sell at or near open today.

IMAX – imax hit a new high yesterday in a “pop and drop” (see yesterday’s Investors411) At one point in time it was up almost +9% and end the day at +2.94%. Volume was @ 3x normal.  Some entity perhaps more than one broke Imax out to a new high. All the day and swing traders jumped in after the break out. There was some China news,but this turned out to be not as big as its headline.  Then the dropping or profit taking came as IMAX fell up to 8%.

IMAX has had  some other pumps and dumps over the last few months. Investors411 called this pump and dump yesterday. This kind of trade is only for day/swing traders (not investors) who know what they are doing and can handle the risk. Not a recommend trade by Investors411 Yes I bought some Imax to day trade early yesterday and made a 5% profit on this.

Paul R on comments section recommends VCI,, that’s held onto its breakout from a consolidation period yesterday. Volume not strong,but it has possibilities for longer term investors

Monitor Likes SHOO – more a short term trade because it is too far extended from 50DMA (Day Moving Average – If you do not recognize what 50DMA was you should NOT be trading these stocks!)

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Those of you who are on the private email list got the news yesterday that YOUR Stock List was up +23.7% since February 10th. (38 trading days) More below under KISS & Stocks. [If you'd like to be on this email list you can find my email under Home/Editor]

Targeted

was the headline on the major Left of Center Blog the Huffington Post & a front page story in the WaPo this AM. It referred to the threefold increase in threats to congress. This Intimidation and more was covered yesterday.

Bottom Line – The Intimidators or Bullies are winning because instead of having rational discussion of the facts behind health care, our financial system, economics, jobs, forgotten wars – all we have is the “entertainers” from FOX News encouraging intimidation because it makes money.  The left wing justifiably responding. But lost in all this is the facts and our ability to be civil to each other.

The last 2/3 of this video (Chris Matthew’s – MSNBC) deals with some of the facts rather than the shouting & threats that gets over covered on heath care. Investors411 is going to focus on some of the facts next week like the one below from Congresswomen Debbie Wassermann Schultz. (see video)(photo below from CBS)

“No one is going to force you to have health care.” – You will be treated differently on your tax form if you do not have health care – just like married/unmarried people, renters/homeowners, kids/no kids etc.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Another up day as volume decreases. Tired of telling you historically volume is the #1 confirmation factor behind a price move and this market is therefore acting irrationally.  However that’s the trend, and the trend is your friend.

Our #2 factor -how markets are reacting to news is bullish. Markets seem to be reacting positively to good news and negative news only slightly halts progress.

Earnings week starts next week and Mondays are usually the best day of the week. So expect some short term traders to get long today to cash in on the Monday trend.

Ed Hoffman (photo above) is one of the better editors at Seeking Alpha – here’s how he sees Friday and the near term future

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell  to -9.81 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – This is still NEUTRAL territory – technically neither overbought or oversold.
• US Dollar – basically flat  -0.02% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Dollar closed at $81.54 and the line in the sand resistance level is @ $82.2 Closing above this level and moving higher would be negative for stocks. Mantra -right now The Dollar Rules

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

+23.7% Profit in 38 days

Before we go over these figures and answer there are 3 important points.

• Caution Don’t let it go to your head. For the most part these stocks were chosen when the US markets were oversold, other reasons, plus we were lucky
• Many many many thanks to Paul R for this data and contributing lots of stocks on the list
• Re-read points 1 & 2

The dumbest thing you could do go out any buy on the stocks on this week’s list.  Your Stock List – you send in the stocks – many are fine stocks, but only some get chosen for technical analysis because I do not have the time to go over a list bigger than 10 to 15 stocks.

Question’s answered.

• No Investors411 is NOT turning into a day or swing traders site. The basic formula of following trends will NOT change. IMAX’s 54.3% gain was the top stock on the list. It following an understandable trend in 3D technology.
• Yes you can copy or find old copies of the list usually each Tuesday (Wed. this week) by using the calendar at the top of the blog.
• Yes you can give a copy to your broker or file them in a circular container.
• I  can’t stress enough to learn something about technical analysis and have a fundamental concept of why your stock will be higher in six months.
• For a list of stocks Paul used to compute this see comments section on the right hand side.

Because your choices are mostly high beta stocks or those that are growing faster than others certain conditions must exist to put the odds more in YOUR favor.

• A bull market
• Oversold conditions – Investors uses the McClellan Oscillator or as Monitor named it the Mickey O. The more oversold the better.
• In general technically the stock has to be dipping, consolidating, or breaking out. (Its not quite this simple)

Our form of  unregulated capitalism has negatively impacted trends.  These trends are reestablishing themselves. The major technical trend now in US stocks is we went too far to the downside and will probably go too far to the upside.  The cloud and cause over all of this is the lack of regulation. This pattern will repeat itself until fixed.

Individual stocks are riskier and what Investors411 will try to do is to cut down on that risk.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Democratic congressman Jim Clyburn

“Baby Killer”

YOU, in the comment section of the blog, have had a rational debate over the tax implication of the health care bill starting started by John Sovjani and now ending with a NYT article from Ewanapat that shows, in part, who benefits and who pays. The rest of the nation has not.

One Texas Republican congressman screamed “Baby Killer” while a Democrat spoke on the heath care bill. Later he apologized, but this calculated move will bring huge amounts of cash into his campaign for congress. Across the country Death Threats, vandalism, break ins, gas lines cut, and even photos of hang man nooses have been sent to at least 10 Democrat congressmen and women who voted for the health care bill.

Here’s a report from yesterday. From today, where families of Democratic congressmen who supported health care are moving out of their districts because of the death threats. Sarah Palin’s website is painting bulls eye’s on targeted democratic congressmen CBS reports

When Black Democrats like congressmen Jim Clyburn (D – Majority Whip) gets a noose & death threats faxed to him it is exactly what happened to those who dared stand up for civil rights in the 60’s.

No matter what side of the health care debate you are on – if you do nothing you condone the behavior. At least tell a co worker or friend that this kind of tactic is unacceptable.

Chimerica

(part 2)

The USA has lost 2.4 million jobs because of the trade gap with China -Study reported in WSJ. Yesterday, our House Ways and Means Committee, announced it was holding hearings China artificially keeping her currency pegged to the USA’s. Niall Ferguson is a most outstanding source of info on this.

Bottom Line – We need many of those 2.4 million jobs back in the USA, but a trade or economic war with China would be devastating to the world’s economy.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

The US dollar exploded higher breaking out of its trading pattern. The strong inverse correlation between US stocks and the dollar once again took hold pushing US equities lower. Stocks fell in basically higher volume.

What’s happening is that Greece and some other European countries involved in the Common Market have weak currencies and the relative to them the dollar is stronger. These problems have two root causes -

• The same financial meltdown that hit us is hitting them. Remember, the reckless lending of super banks/shadow banks was a global phenomena. In this case the Greek government aided by Goldman Sachs covered up their debt.
• Greece and some other European countries have swung too far into socialism – example may can retire at 50 in Greece with almost full benefits. This is the exact opposite of the USA which has swung too far into greed based capitalism.

Expect a rebound as momentum is still clearly with the bulls and the McClellan oscillator turned red (below zero)

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell to -1.66 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought. When the $NYMO is around zero those who can accept more risk can nibble on stocks & ETF’s.
• US Dollar - Exploded higher +1.34%. Anything over 1.00% is considered a huge move and this move was also a breakout to a new high.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Our remaining China position FXI (Also EWZ & MOO)

Over the course of the last few months Investors has decreased FXI holdings from a high of almost 25% to the current 5%. China has been an investment mainstay of Investors411 for many years. Unfortunately many imbalances (see yesterday’s Chimerica piece) especially with the US and a over supply of public and retail housing is clouding the future.

This is also true for emerging markets that have been under performing US stock markets.  Technically after years of out performance this was bound to happen regardless of the fundamental problems in China. Our other major foreign investment. Brazil, EWZ is also under performing. Again over many months we have reduced holdings from a high of almost 25% to 5%. Brazil has a presidential election and the economically successful “socialist” president of the last 8 years is not running. Markets hate change.

The overall problem is does China have a soft landing or a hard one?  Yesterday, our House Ways and Means Committee, announced it was holding hearings on  China artificially keeping her currency pegged to the USA’s. Niall Ferguson is a most outstanding source of info on this.

MOO is an agriculture ETF whose growth relies on emerging markets buying US agricultural products and equipment.  Investors has cut this from 10% to 5% position.

Strategy – Bottom Line – Will drop remaining 5% in FXI into a rally.  Investors is building it own market basket of 3D stocks and health care stocks. (see past blog posts) Investing in ETF’s  (example TYH) that do 2 & 3 times what US indexes do when they are oversold.  Also considering YOUR stock list for investments.

Apologies for everyone who just wants to buy and hold forever.  It’s just NOT your parents market. Blame technology.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Dr Larry Brilliant

Historic Heath Care Legislation Passes

Whatever side your on this was HISTORIC. Congressman’s Alan Grayson’s HR 4789 (public option) was far preferable to what passed.  The NYT editorial here. An obvious political win for Democrats. If I were a Democrat congressman I would be sending out to seniors why AARP’s endorsed the bill and explaining what closing the doughnut hole in medicare coverage means. The vast amounts of hyperbole and rhetoric on both sides is obviously exaggerations.

For the shorter term impact on stocks – see Fearless Forecast and Positions sections below

“America’s Real Dream Team”

Some times Tom Friedman hits a grand slam – This editorial is one. Can you guess his “Dream Team” and why despite all the political partisanship they give us hope for the future?

How African Poverty Affects YOU

Because of the poverty in Africa (most scientist attribute a major factor – drought brought on by climate change) Africans have started to eat more meat (from monkey’s to lions) because crops have failed. This over the last few decades has led to 30+ communicable diseases transferred from animals to people and spread world wide. This arguement is often used by Epidemiologist Dr. Larry Brilliant who is the forefront of pandemic research. One of his TED award lectures.

Many of  these horrific diseases have reached our shores. If anyone dares mention how useless the UN is you tell them the impact it has had eliminating communicable diseases that affect billions around the world. (see above link)  Also when someone tell you we should cut aid to Africa or poverty does NOT impact you remember where and how AIDS & Ebola began.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Friday markets were down in significantly higher volume.  Some of this volume is due to quadruple witching/options expiring on Friday and some of this was due to momentum growing for passage of health care.

Over the last 4 months Monday’s have usually been very good for stocks.  However those or you who have followed Investors411 for a long time know sometime technicals rule and sometimes fundamentals. (see Fearless Forecast below)

Fearless Forecast for  Last Week – “up week” – All US major indexes moved higher. We lost about 1/4 to 1/3 of those gains on Friday.

Fearless Forecast for  This Week – “down week” – Health Care reform was dead and Obama/Pelosi brought it back to life. Even though Democrat Senator Chris Dodd has a very weak bill to reform shadow financing and increase transparency, Wall Street will probably be spooked by the passage of health care. Investors will reason that more rules will get put into the financial system by Obama/Pelosi and the financial sector will lead stocks lower. Like health care, financial reform of “greed based capitalism” may return to life.

Short term expect stocks to get hit.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell again significantly to -1.26 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Let’s let the dust settle – (see this week’s fearless forecast)  However, outside financial stocks, an oversold buying opportunity should present itself.  Also expect high beta - lots of the stocks on YOUR watch list – to take a hit.

If stocks do not take a hit Monday, on worries over potentially more stringent rules in financial sector, we have one strong bull market and get on the train.

Paul R -(see comments on right side of blog) has mentioned that Health Care stocks have already rallied into this weekends vote. They might “sell the news,” but in the long term heath care stocks like Express Scripts (ESRX will be on YOUR watch list tomorrow) should really benefit from the Obama/Pelosi vote.

Short term traders – ESRX will probably go elliptical over the next two days. Jump in early or buy the dip.

Health Care, Hospitals and Drug stocks should see their stocks soar. They were just handed 32 million new customers.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

-

Congressional Budget Office

The non partisan CBO came out with its report on Health Care. Both Republicans & Democrats endorse the CBO reports when it favors their side in whatever debate. Here are some of the major points on the proposed plan

• Increase costs by $940 billion and cut costs by greater $1,078 billion over first 10 years = net federal deficit saving of $138 billion
• Cut deficit 1.2 trillion next 10 years
• Adds coverage for 32 million Americans
• Closes “doughnut hole.” – no longer a gap in senior coverage

Basically it covers 95% of Americans and cuts deficit by over $1.3 trillion over next 20 years – WAPO’s Ezra Klien. Many analysts feel that this would increase medicare solvency by 9 years

Is Support for Health Care Reform Changing?

Nate Silver, the best poll analyst out there says yes. The center and the left are moving toward Obama on this. Last look at betting site Intrade showed a 78% possibility of bill passing.

The Devil is in the Details

There is a big give away to Louisiana, because they have a Dem. Senator up for reelection and more will come out.   Hopefully they can be changed later. The obvious downside is that this increases the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have. Therefore the exorbitant  17% of our  GDP that goes to Health Care will NOT significantly change

Catholic’s Supporting Health Care

Several major Catholic groups (Catholic Health Organization most notable) are now supporting health care. It’s dawned on them that we are the abortion capital of the world and covering more people will REDUCE abortions as it has in other counties. Thanks to JAB bringing this up in comment section of blog. See JAB’s and other comments  on the right side of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

US markets went all over the place yesterday and on the whole ended up flat in decreased, weak volume. This is probably due to options expiring today (the 3rd Friday of the month).

There was some bad news out of Greece

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell significantly to +30.01 yesterday. 0 is Neutral and +60 or Overbought territory. The recent high three weeks ago was 75.33 StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Once again the NYMO has fallen back down to its support level at 30. While it is much safer to make investments when conditions are oversold (-60) if we are in for a long term rally those willing to take bigger risks could nibble the dip here.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Repeat from Yesterday – “Going to build up to a 20% position in stocks involved with 3D technology

. “IMAX, DWA, RGC & CNK In one sense Investors411 will be building its own market basket of stocks (like an ETF) on the potential of 3D technology.

Many of the Stocks on YOUR stock list are great, perhaps even better than the 3 D plays. The difference is fundamentally 3 D has shown it has pricing power. People around the world will line up to pay an extra 20 to 40% to see a 3D film. Think people will go to movies even if we have another leg down economically. I simply have not had the time to go over the fundamentals of the other stocks. Remember AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Investors411 ETF positions are currently under performing the benchmark S&P 500 FXI (China) MOO (Agriculture stocks) & EWZ (Brazil – just a bit under) In one sense technically after many years of out performing this was bound to happen. Investors411 has also cut way back on major foreign investments from highs @ 25% each to 5%.

Three significant reasons US markets are outperforming other foreign  markets

• Obama’s health care reform does nothing to break the monopoly of the insurance and drug companies. If anything it makes them more $ by covering more people.
• Financial reform of greed based capitalism proposed by Senator Dodd (D. CT) is very weak and does little to increase transparency.
• Core inflation is well under control From today’s Seeking Alpha – “Thursday’s BLS report on CPI showed core inflation at 6-year lows, up just 1.3% over the recent 12-month period. The main reason for this: The price of ’shelter’ remains depressed, up only 0.3% YoY.”

Bottom Line – No real reform means another bubble is inevitably building in our greed based (as opposed to rules based) capitalist system. Home prices remaining depressed means the US Fed will keep shoveling money into the system builds both the economic bubble and stock prices.

Investments – There are going to be more short term (when we are closer to overbought) and longer term (when we are oversold) trades involving ETF’s like TYH that do 2 & 3x what an index does.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Mad Hatter/Johnney Depp frm Alice

Will Technology Save Us?

Using fancy complex technology to do shadow bank financing certainly facilitated a global financial meltdown.  However, having now seen Tim Burton (a gifted director) Alice In Wonderland in IMAX 3d I’ve fallen through the looking glass over advancements in 3 D technology again.  Two new films “Dragons” (saw previews to this and would consider flying to Fargo ND to take my grandkids to this film) and “Titans” are fighting it out with Alice for the limited number of 3D screens. There are 24 more 3D movies on the way this year.

Health Care’s Last, Last Stand

Like in the Terminator movies Arnold just kept coming and coming after you. Sometimes he was the good guy sometimes the bad.  Well, yesterday ultra lefty congressman Dennis Kucinich flip flopped and now may be Obama’s  St Patrick day’s luck charm on health care. For more see Health Cares Last Stand (scroll down)

Damage Control

The Catholic Church brings many people closer to God and has fought for many social justice issues.  However, this whole business about pedophile priests has been a nightmare that they have made worse because they just have little concept of how to do damage control.  Sure these events are horrific but stop trying to cover it up or whitewash everything. More here & here & here Then again basically ignoring is a form of damage control.

Off With Their Heads

Ted Kaufman is now by far the strongest Senator is calling for reform on Wall Street. Bravo. WSJ article & MIT’s Simon Johnson’s  “Fraud Still at the Heart of Wall Street.” on Kaufman. Perhaps we should do what they did to the head of North Korea’s financial chief -  When he messed up - He got executed.

Baseball = Evil, Football = Good

The reality is sometimes more socialist systems do work better than capitalist systems in generating revenue. Hard to argue in the USA institutionally baseball is in decline while football is rising. Big market teams win, get fans and revenue. Small makets almost always loose, fands leave and so does revenue.  In football they have a strict team salary cap and strict progressive draft system. Their stadiums are almost all full, their championships and media rating are skyrocketing.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Volume was moderate and up a wee bit, as stocks advanced yesterday. Volume is half heartedly confirming a much less than stellar two day rally. This short rally was built on a two week low volume rally. Technically as we again approach oversold levels, volume, the #1 confirmation factor of a price move, is giving us a slightly bullish signal

Since the Oscillator Investors uses is not yet overbought we have some wiggle room for stocks to move higher in the short term.

Technicaly, this its like there is a whole group of soldiers assaulting a barricade (pushing out to even higher highs). These soldiers seem to be moving very slowly for a charge, but progress is progress.  Once we hit oversold territory progress should slow even further.

Fundamentally “stocks could pick up steam today because of weekly jobless claims (better than expected) and “quadruple witching” (don’t worry if you do not know what quadruple witching is but it is fascinating to see all those traders flying around the NY stock exchange on their broom sticks)

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose to +51.86 yesterday. We still under, but getting close to +60 or Overbought territory. The recent high two weeks ago was 75.33 StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From yesterday – “I’m going to try to play TYH again on a small dip (if it happens) and sell it when markets get oversold. Again I’ll have a tight 3% stop.  The mistake was not to invest in a stock or ETF yesterday after it became obvious that US markets were reacting positively to what the Fed said at 2:15 EST.” Missed out when TYH dipped in the AM because I was doing taxes – bummer. The window is closing on this short term play the closer we get to oversold. Would have to see a 1 to 2 % drop in TYH to consider entering trade again today.

Going to build up to a 20% position in stocks involved with 3D technology. They can’t build 3D theaters fast enough to keep up with the demand. 3D TVs started being sold last month and a 3D channel is supposed to begin within a year.  See Tuesday’s Investors411 for more. (use calender on top of blog and click on Tuesday 5/16 then scroll down)

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Dylan Ratigan

No Brainer TAX

Senators Jim Webb (D) and Barbara Boxer (D) are offering a NO BRAINER tax that many other countries have already enacted.

If your company took over $5 billion of the TARP funds (our tax money) all bonuses over $400,000 would be subject to a 50% tax for the years you held our TARP money. The only reason these companies exist is because of  the TARP bailout, borrowing trillions at @ 0.00% from the FED (means future inflation for you) and have been allowed to drop transparent mark to market accounting.

You’d think a 50% tax on just the bonuses over $400,000 for the top executive would fly through congress like far more stringent taxes have in other countries like Britain. But YOU hear almost nothing about it because of the lobbyists and their tight control over the media. Dylan Ratigan on MSNBC (4:00PM EST) yesterday carried an interview with Senator Webb (D-VA) It seems in their first attempt they could not even get this on the floor of the Senate for a vote.

YOU get the bill and the wealthy that screwed you get the Bonus – Only in America and third world dictatorships does this happen.

Health Care

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

• The Good-The proposed Heath car plan under Obama will cover an additional 31 million Americans. Perhaps we will no longer be #1 on the list of “western” countries in which preventable deaths occur. One Republican’s  plan covers 3 million additional Americans. Its better than zero.
• The Bad – At best long term, the Obama plan may very very slightly limits the 17+% and growing amount of GDP we spend on health care. Obama administration long ago sold out to the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have in the USA.
• The Ugly -  Totally political congress that is only interested in getting elected instead of solutions  and lack of leadership from Obama have prevented real solutions that are working – a public option or universal health care that dozens of other countries have voted to keep for decades.

Yes, we have the best health care system in the world - If youyou’rer a Saudi Prince, uber wealthy foreigner, know someone, or are a wealthy American you actually get to use the best system in the world. Forget it if you’re an average Joe and Jane American.

Whipcongress.com has  kept the drive for a public option alive – 40 Senators have signed on – YOU can help.

Dylan Ratigan

Dylan, used to be the anchor and co creator of CNBC’s “Fast Money” and now has his own show on MSNBC.  He has both financial skills and is unafraid to nail any politician or industry unlike the corporate lapdogs of CNBC. As stated above his show is on at 4:00 PM EST.  One of his recent editorials on Corporate Communism in Heath Care and Banking. is a Must Read.

As Americans, I believe we reject communism because it historically has allowed a tiny group of people to consolidate complete control over national resources (including people), in the process stifling competition, freedom and choice. It leaves its citizens stagnating under the perpetual broken systems with no natural motivation to innovate, improve services or reduce costs.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

A decent rally collapsed into yesterday’s close. We rallied a bit in the last 10 minutes to close in the green. Volume was up & above average. The benchmark S&P 500 came within @ 0.40% of reaching anew 18 month high. The NASDQ and Russell 2000 are already at new highs, but it has NOT been the typical big volume breakout that usually signifies the continuation of a major rally.

US markets need some fundamental push to breakout before the bullish momentum runs out of steam.

• Perhaps good news from weekly jobless claims Thursday.
• Perhaps the increased exports/imports just announced by China will lead markets higher, China is not nearly as close to or at  a new highs like US, Britain and some other countries. Worries over a developing housing/office space glut/bubble are holding back investors.
• Perhaps it will be the financial sector (XLF the ETF) that almost broke out yesterday. – Attempts to regulate this sector are getting weaker.
• Perhaps the Dollar will fall. This would mean the Euro would get stronger.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator dropped a bit to +6o.89 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
• BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule Two days ago the BDI, like stocks, leveled off in front of a strong resistance level. Yesterday it fell.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Mantra – Since the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) is still over +60, or overbought -  Right now,  selling (taking profits) is more desirable than opening new positions because of the short term over bought conditions. Positions:

• 6% EWZ (Brazil)
  
• 5%MOO (agriculture ETF)
• 5%FXI (China)
  
• 3% IMAX – In a HUGE explosion higher right now

All three ETF positions are currently under performing US markets.  They are 5 to 10% from their old highs. Will sell more if NYMO gets above +80. Will nibble on THY & other positions if NYMO falls to @+20

Answer to Monitor’s comment - Congratulations on using  YOUR Stock Picks wisely and making a killing, I know others who have used the list and sent personal emails are also doing well.  See comments section on side of blog.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Behavioral Economics

Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman is “widely regarded as world’s most influential psychologist” who is also the father of Behavioral Economics. “The Riddle of Experience vs. Memory.” is a very powerful & worthwhile video presentation on understanding why/how your perception of happiness and pain are impacted by memory vs. experience.  The Q&A at the end is especially significant.

From stocks to politics reality is one thing but how you experience that realty determines your action. Investors411 has reference Kahnenman in the past and will in the future.

Millions in America are addicted to pompous windbags screaming and ranting. Kahneman has scientific and logical insight into something that might actually help make you HAPPIER.

Make Markets Be Markets

In less than 18 days we handed out almost $800 billion to financial shadow institutions. In 18 months of the Bush & Obama administrations we have done nothing to fix the problem. The Roosevelt Institute featured a conference on financial reform with perhaps our best hope for some sort of protection Elizabeth Warren as one of the feature speakers.  Lots of other significant personalities attended

Health Care’s Last Stand

Here today’s NYT Editorial on health care – “Congressional Democrats can either move forward legislation to fix this country’s broken health care system or throw away a once-in-a-generation opportunity.”

Many of you over the past year have posted comments on this. Including the last one from Popeye (a public option supporter) who thinks “we are kicking a dead horse”

Personally, this legislation does not “fix” health care – it is way too watered down. But, the NYT is right – you will see no significant reform for a generation if it does not pass.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Another day that saw stocks rally and fold at the end of the day. Investors are selling into the rallies because the general market conditions are oversold. = Bears taking over.

The big data point is tomorrows jobless number.

Investors clamored to buy Greek debt. Good news for Greece and European Union. But this problem is far from over.

Overbought markets can be very sensitive to bad news.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell to +54.74 yesterday We are now just below +60 or Overbought territory. Still time to seriously consider selling into any rallies.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

• recently bought (added to) EWZ (Brazil) was sold at 72.00 Sold the shares bought on 2/11 for 65.75 Still holding onto shares bought last year at 59.5.  @+6% profit
  
• IMAX – Sold 1/2 the shares when it hit stop/loss order at 13.4.  @+6% gain. Wish I had sold earlier into the rally as I suggested.

Investors411 has sold the rest of TYH. & 1/2 of MOO, EWZ & IMAX. Will sell more positions if McClellan rises significantly. Plan to buy if it drops. Will probably buy some at $NYMO (McClellan Oscillator) reaches zero.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Paul Krugman

Sorry analysis of  YOUR Stock Watch List took a lot of time this AM  – so little on economics/politics

Health Care

The Baseline Scenario (MIT economists) agrees with NYT Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman on Health Care – No Bill is better than a weak one.

Krugman – “In summary, then, it’s time to draw a line in the sand. No reform, coupled with a campaign to name and shame the people responsible, is better than a cosmetic reform that just covers up failure to act.”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Rally Ho, but in the usual weak volume. The NASDQ did manage to increase its volume but not in any big way. Fundamentally news was not especially good yesterday so there is a bullish sentiment underlying the markets.

We are quickly approaching oversold territory and the higher we get above +60 the more I’d take profits.

Jobs numbers for February come out on Friday

British pound is falling apart.

Why stocks are moving higher - Attempts at serious financial regulations appear to be disintegrating. No health care reform that would lessen cost for Americans and cut profits for insurance companies. Lobbyists dominate both parties in Washington. Dysfunctional federal government means no regulations on stocks. Emerging markets are still growing despite a Chinese housing bubble building.  Obviously low volume indicates that No new investors are coming back into the markets. Many bubble’s building, the question is when they bursts.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Index rose to +53.10 up a whopping  +21.37 points yesterday We are just below +60 Oversold territory. Time to seriously consider selling into any rallies. Especially one like we had yesterday.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

YOUR Watch List of Stocks

Many Thanks!!! to several of you who keep sending in additional lists of prospective stocks. Cannot possible include all of them. The 4 new stocks were chosen because they were on more than one list.  If you have one or a group of stocks – I’d be happy to consider them.

Since the McClellan Oscillator is close to +60, or overbought – buying right now is far more dangerous than when markets are oversold – Its hard for almost all stocks to go against the tide.  The McClellan and other similar Indexes dipped down last week into mildly overbought territory (@ +25) and this gave many of the stocks on our watch list some room to run higher.  But, since the McC. is near +60 we are running out of rally room.

NB -Last Week’s Comments. black. This week violet

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

• CAAS – Lots of volume behind rally days and had big breakout – hold if you own or buy the dip. Big +10.90% move higher yesterday – volume confirming rally – A buy the dip stock
  
• PCLN – Now wait for dip. Breakout 5.22% move yesterday in good volume – A buy the dip stock
  
• F – Flatlining or Forming a base. Breakout 5.71% yesterday in good volume – A buy the dip stock
  
• IMAX - hold if you’re a long term investor Has moved up, but volume weak – Sell  into rally if you are short term trader – wait for pullback to buy.
• GS, Up a bit but volume dropping Not Interested Still weak
• CSCO, Techs new leader Not Interested Like AAPL moving higher – Slower steadier more for longer term investor
  
• SHOO, Great long term chart. Needs breakout – Tempting A 4.02% breakout in good volume yesterday – A buy the dip stock
• ICON, Slow steady move higher with breakout yesterday – A buy the dip Dipped back down and has formed a series of higher lows & higher highs – A buy the dip stock
• VPRT Moved up to breakout level and pulled back yesterday – A buy the dip Up +2.49% yesterday in what could be a breakout – A buy the dip stock
  
• DGIT Thinly traded but had breakout in big volume and is now dipping – A buy the dip Classic breakout and pullback - up @ 5% in last 2 days - wait for next dip
• CTCT Broke out and is in pullback - A little weaker than other choices, but buy the dip Nothing flashy, but building on higher highs and higher lows – Buy the dip
• VCI Major breakout, then rallied more and yesterday big drop – Too volatile for me – Dipped and has made up most of that loss, but in weak volume Tempting, but risky.

YOUR New choices (These were on several different lists) Thanks again for sending in your choices

• CREE – Owned this chip company in the past and on a great long term run. Too overextended to buy now - A buy the Dip stock
• SNDK – A tech flash storage company that had a 11.94% breakout yesterday. Overextended now but Buy the Dip stock
  
• VSH – Most sent in stock. On another breakout,but in weak volume and overextended -  Too risky
• HMIN – Up 4.02% yesterday in breakout, but weak volume. Too Risky

What most of you have chosen are technically high relative strength stocks – stocks that are HOT. Lots of these are Great choices. It looks like we should have another day or two before the overbought markets run out of steam. Sell at their highs and jump back in on the dips.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

The Holy Grail of Fuel Cells?

The Terminator, WalMart’s CEO & Colin Powell

Add the CEO of Google and you have one of the most hyped and perhaps revolutionary product launches in history was launched yesterday – The Bloom fuel cell box – Low cost clean energy whose primary ingredient is sand in now being used by some major US companies. Hard to tell the hype from reality, but if you missed 60 minutes on the Bloom energy box the 3  links above will give you some more information.  Seems like a $3,000 clean energy box in your home will produce electricity at about 1/2 the rate currently charged.  For all its faults America still has the greatest innovators on the globe.

Shooting Shadow Banks

With a clenched jaw President Obama stated about the shadow financial institutions on January 21st – “If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have,” In front of the Business Round Table all that tough talk turned to jello.  Paul Volker & Elizabeth Warren seem to be left out on a limb that is being cut off. Enlightening editorial in New Republic by Peter Boone & Simon Johnson

Health Care Summit Today

Obama’s six hour health care summit is being held today. Dylan Ratigan (MSNBC Show) pointed out that insurance companies in 4 states plan to raise premiums over 20% this year.  For many the Democrats have sold out to the insurance industry and Republican’s simply want to do nothing to prevent Democrats from getting any credit.  Both parties are dominated by lobbyists. Ratigan also has a piece on the Bloom Box yesterday.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

The Terminator, WalMart’s CEO & Colin Powell

Add the CEO of Google and you have one of the most hyped and perhaps revolutionary product launches in history was launched yesterday – The Bloom fuel cell box – Low cost clean energy whose primary ingredient is sand in now being used by some major US companies. Hard to tell the hype from reality, but if you missed 60 minutes on the Bloom energy box the 3  links above will give you some more information.  Seems like a $3,000 box in your home will produce electricity at about 1/2 the rate currently charged.  For all its faults America still has the greatest innovators on the globe.

Shooting Shadow Banks

With a clenched jaw President Obama stated about the shadow financial institutions on January 21st – “If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have,” In front of the Business Round Table all that tough talk turned to jello.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Markets rose and volume fell.  Up days on lighter volume has been the norm for months.  Roughly 80% of the rally days have seen a DECREASE in volume.  This is NOT good in the long term for stocks. About 80% of the previous days losses were made up.

The US shrugged off the bad consumer confidence news two days ago  and financials led stocks higher. (See above) Obama has flipped flopped on getting tougher regulations for shadow institutions so many times I’ve lost count. Bottom Line – nothing’s been done in since he took office. In fact dropping mark to market accounting has made major shadow banks less transparent. Short term this is a boon for stocks, but longer term it just means without transparency or any regulations other financial bubbles will inevitably form.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Index rose to +36.20. We are once again approaching oversold territory.  This looks like a second leg up into an oversold position – greater than +60

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) – These are positions I actually own

Will be lightening up when/if positions reach oversold.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING