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Real News

Be still my beating heart, Hillary Clinton, gets it and she’s not afraid to tell the world.

Our Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton launched a verbal broadside against American media and its headlined in the Huffington Post One of the sheep/cows has woken up to the fact of just how phony American media is.

Clinton -

• Al Jazeera offers “real news”
• US is loosing “information war” in the world

“You may not agree with it [Al Jazeera], but you feel like you’re getting real news around the clock instead of a million commercials and, you know, arguments between talking heads and the kind of stuff that we do on our news which, you know, is not particularly informative to us, let alone foreigners.“

More Sophisticated Trading

One of Investors411 mottos is to try to keep it simple. So the following is a bit out of context, but it involves two long term position which I hold and you may be interested in. They involve leveraged ETF’s UCO and TMV, & the use of covered calls.

• TMV is 3x leveraged (bearish) to 20+ year treasury bonds. I think inflation is inevitable because of all the quantitative easing and yields will eventually rise.
• UCO is 2x leveraged oil prices. I think, because of growing demand and limited low cost oil higher prices are here to stay.

I have bought these stocks and sold/opened a call option on them. Example – I bought 100 shares of UCO last week at $51, and sold a call at $55 for March 18th. This means the other person has the right to buy my UCO for $55 on the 3rd Friday of the month. That person payed me $160 to do this or about 3% premium. So I made 3% already and on March 18th if everything works out I can sell another covered call on the same UCO and make another premium. Sweet, but there are dangers and lots of other factors involved.

• Sorry ran out of time and I’ve just started. - to be continued. – see comments section later today for more.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• The same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building trading pattern gains in small volume. This time is was BIG gains
• The impact of higher oil prices around the world has become a threat to globalized growth and US markets have not yet decided the impact higher oil prices
• Many forced to cover short positions, so we had a big swing up
• Oil prices above $100 (now for two days) will have a bigger impact on emerging markets than the USA. So the longer prices stay high the worse it is for the economy and eventually stocks.
• Alan Greenspan’s view on the economy
• Jobs report for February below – Remember a good jobs number means the more likely quantitative easing will end sooner rather than later and/or there will be no QE #3. Scheduled ending June 30th. So good news on jobs may be bad news for stocks.

Employment numbers for Feb. are - 8.9% unemployment Figure and +192,000 jobs created.

Good headlines for the public and about what was expected. AP on numbers

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell again. This time -0.24% yesterday . Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index (see below) For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to  +24.63. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. MO Stocks outlook = Neutral/Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The McClellan Index has worked almost flawlessly over the past few months. Check out the chart above. Therefore, with the MO at +25, in the short term we are probably very near a top. Longer term trend is still with the bulls.

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Clear 2 month pattern of bears ruling Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Bounced off its 50 DMA support level. Back approaching new high

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Positions

Another 3% trailing stop today on both REMX & RJA today.

UCO -Will sell 1/2 of UCO if profits exceed 5%. 5% trailing stop

UWM – A +25 on the MO shows there is not a lot of upside left in the UWM. So will probably sell into small rally and have set 3% trailing stop. Buying with such a high MO was probably a mistake.

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high and has started to pull back. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

“A National Disgrace “- The American Justice System. South Park – Bailout video. Update on Iraq. A Berlin wall separating 39 million Hispanics from 135 million Mexicans. Pat Buchanan solution to the drug problem. The rising Red River. Over bought stocks market’s short term outlook 

Lady Justice by Rodringo Duran

“A National Disgrace” US Justice System

Senator Jim Webb (D VA) words at the introduction of the 2009 National Criminal Justice Act. Webb - With 5% of the world’s population, our country now houses 25% of the world’s reported prisoners. That’s just his opening in a laundry list of problems

Of course you’re wondering if any of the criminals who run the Shadow Banking System and robbed Americans of trillions will ever see the inside of a prison.  We, by far, run the largest police state of any civilized democracy, but if you’re wealthy shadow banker?

South Park – Bailout

 A 30 second You Tube video

Iraq’s Civil war

American corporate media has ignored the fact that the Shia have almost wiped out the Sunni’s in a bloody civil war that is still simmering. Baghdad once a majority Sunni city has now less than 15% Sunni according to Juan Cole’s Informed Comment blog. The latest on the Iranian backed Shia’s that control a fearful and divided Iraq/Baghdad – AP story

Mexico

Far more relevant than Shia dominating Sunni’s in Iraq to the US will be the 39 million Hispanics in the USA we are trying to separate from the 135 million Mexican’s by a wall. We will have to turn into what communist East Germany was when they erected the Berlin Wall to make this work or find a different solution.

Hillary Clinton is leading a diplomatic effort to Mexico that will culminate with an Obama visit. ” Clinton – “The U.S. shares responsibility for its neighbor’s drug violence. Now we must be just as smart about our ‘help.’” More from LA Times on Clinton and the Mexico Message

Hillary, is winning kudos as Secretary of State,

Solution to the Drug problem

Conservative/Libiterian Pat Buchanan often offers a choice in solving the “weed” problem.

•  Do what chairman Mao did and kill all the dealers and users
• Legalize it like cigarettes & alcohol, then tax it.

Legalizing pot would take a whole lot of business away from the violent Mexican cartels that operate in 230 American communities and account the 1200% increase in drug offenders in the USA since 1980. (stat source Jim Webb, point of view – mine)

The Red River

Just turn on the weather channel. The Red River in Fargo/Moorhead is cresting above 40 ft. (new record) in 6 below zero temperatures this AM. Best wishes to several bloggers and a grandson & granddaughter who live a few hundred yards from this river.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING