Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
January 20, 2010

A Frog In Hot Water

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

A Frog in Hot Water

The old adage goes – Throw a frog in hot water and he’ll jump right out, but you can slowly bring the water to a boil and that frog will stay put.

A little known Republican State Senator, Scott Brown , won a stunning upset victory in the MA Senate race last night. Like Mitt Romney in 2002, he beat  Dem. Shannon O’Brien, Brown toasted another woman who ran a weak campaign – Martha Coakly.  For perhaps the best analysis of what this means see Nate Silver’s Let’s Play The Blame Game

Health Care – Obviously in deep trouble. The only way Health Care would pass is if the House passes the Senate Bill. Since Democrats in the House have already voted for a far more progressive health care plan and will get hit for that in the next election Obama is going to argue why not vote for the Senate version.

Bottom Line – Health care. – You blew it – RIP

That Frog in this case is the typical American worker who is in the pot of ever increasing temperature .

  • Globalization is slowly eliminating working class jobs across America
  • Weapons budgets are growing at the rate of 10 to 20% each year
  • For the first time in our history we cut taxes and went to war.
  • Our federal and trade deficit exploded from 2000 to 2008.
  • The era of cheap oil is OVER. The supply has peaked and the demand from billions of people in emerging markets is growing.
  • Because of our suburban sprawl and relative lack of public transportation we are far more vulnerable to high oil prices.
  • Time tested solutions like stimulating the economy to fix it will not work as well because of our already huge deficit.
  • There fewer and fewer laws to govern excess GREED on Wall St. Main Street has socialized the risk for Wall Street
  • The rich in the USA are getting richer and what’s left of the American working class (those not newly unemployed) are paying the bill
  • As the situation worsens, self preservation kicks in, and Americans care less and less about others.

The American frog is in a pot that’s getting hotter and hotter.

There is an upside to all of this outside the USA. Hundreds of millions (perhaps billions) in emerging markets are increasing their standard of living. They have or are learning to Manage their capitalism and hopefully not repeat mistakes that were made here.  Greed is a powerful factor and one hopes eventually more democracy will grow abroad.  If Time magazine called the last decade The Decade from Hell for the USA – it could get a whole lot worse for the American frog in this decade.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.09% down
NASDQ +1.42% down
S&P500 +1.25% down
Russell2000- +1.75% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Stocks staged a major rally (above 1%) in decreased, average volume. Volume, our #1 confirmation factor did NOT confirm the move higher. Even though we achieved some new highs (for a calander year) on 3 of the major indexes we are doing it in reduced volume.

  • McClellan Index at +i3.14 = A little bit overbought.  There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or oversold or @ +60 or overbought

IBM reported after the bell and beat top and bottom line expectations. This was not a grand slam, but IBM did solidly better, but lost money in after hours trading.   The important news from IBM which does 60% of its business abroad was that their areas of growth were "Brazil, China, & India."

Even though stocks rallied yesterday still believe in down week.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING


YOUR Watch List of Stocks . Unfortunately, I’m not daily checking these stocks out. Ideally, you’d like to McClellan index below zero (the further the better) and these all would be better buys. We developed most of these potential stocks about two weeks ago. Check old Investors411 for more.

Again the problem with buying now is that markets are slightly overbought and you would like stocks oversold position. Click on ticker symbol for chart. Going to limit Watch List to @ 10 stocks.  80% of investments wil be ETF’s 20% stocks.

NB – I feel much more confident with ETF’s because they reflect global trends than individual stock. Too many things can go wrong with individual stocks.

  • SEED In a buy the dip position.
  • AAPL big +4.42% rally yesterday. Sitting on breakout point. AAPL moves markets – if this goes higher so does the market.
  • AMZN We sold at highs and AMZN has formed lower highs and lows. In bearish mid term pattern. Will drop from list soon
  • HMIN - Failed breakout, back at lower end of trading pattern. Will drop from list soon
  • CAAS Buy the dip opportunity as CAAS falls to just above 50 day moving average.
  • PCLN Buy the dip opportunity
  • F Still too over extended to buy
  • DRWI New – Big exporter to China -  Looks great but still too overextended to buy
  • ENOC New – Reduces costs for utilities – Great long term chart. formed base for last 5 months moving higher – A buy
  • ATHN New - Software reduces costs for health care - Clear trend higher since June Buy the dip opportunity
  • IMAX Great long term chart – falling back to its 50 day moving average. A buy the dip opportunity

Mistake – I let my emotions over rule logic on IMAX It was too overextended from 50 day moving average to buy at 13.9. So I’ve sold the small position (1% of portfolio I bought at 13.9 for 10% loss) Keeping 1% bought at 12.9 and will add more at lower price.  Perhaps the most important rule of investing learn from mistakes and do not repeat them.

If markets were overbought I’d strongly consider ENOC, CAAS, ATHN, SEED, & PCLN.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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October 15, 2009

Market Updates – Dow 10,000

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Dow 10,000

Shadow Death From Nowhere.jpg

Yesterday the Dow closed over 10,000.  Some major facts that cheerleading American corporate media has ignored about Dow 10,000

  • The Dow was at 10,000 ten years ago. Buy and holding stocks over the last 10 years has really LOST money. A whole lot more than you think
  • If you adjust for inflation the Dow is really at 7,537 – you lost 25% of your purchasing power. Thanks to one of you who sent in this LINK
  • If you compare the Dow to Gold (in some ways this is like showing how far the dollar has fallen in value relative to other countries) “It cost about 30 ounces to buy the 10,000 Dow last time. Now it costs less than 10.” The  loss in purchasing power becomes even bigger.

Therefore, relative to the rest of the world and inflation major US companies/the Dow has taken a huge fall over the last 10 years.

Relative to this years Dow low 6470, Dow 10,000 sounds mighty good .  Financials have lead this Dow/Stock Market recovery from 6470 to 10,000.

  • JPM * (see below) just announced multi billions of dollars in better than expected profits. So will other shadow banks
  • These financials are giving big rewards to top executives who still look for ways to make bets on money (Credit Default Swaps etc) and are building up hoards of cash in order to have collateral on these hidden bets.
  • Obama and his Wall Street administration have even made it less transparency for shadow institutions – mantra, we now have NO mark to market accounting.
  • The banks are not making loans to small businesses like they’re supposed to and the gov’t instead is making those loans/gifts – cash for clunkers, tax cuts, $8,000 first time homeowner gift etc.
  • These big shadow institutions are here to stay. LINK according to Obama’s administration “the genie is out of the bottle.” Looks like these huge unregulated institutions are here to stay.

Therefore shadow banks, the creators of “financial weapons of mass destruction” (Warren Buffett quote) rule. Obviously those who robbed you and brought the world to its financial knees are being rewarded. Investors411 has screamed about the injustice and future doom of continuing the  hidden financial system, but it has contributed significantly to the Dow reaching 10,000.  Like greedy little pigs we are again building a financial system on illusion.

Investors411 recommends the following  (see overview for more)

  • Traders – Play the financial stocks (shadow banks). They rule. Ride the wave. Dow 10,000 means lots of wealth has been again created for upper middle to ultra wealthy. Some of this will get spent and help the American economy and the blackmail shadow banks have is if they go under so does the stock market . Never forget we are only building another hidden asset bubble
  • Long Term Investors – Do what everyone else is realizing buy Gold GLD (see past Investors411)
  • Long Term Investors – Buy countries that create wealth by manufacturing real goods or producing real commodities – China & Brazil

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.47% up
NASDQ +1.51% up
S&P500 +1.75% up
Russell2000 +2.00%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

“Expect other indexes to follow Gold & Brazil. (Both GLD and EWZ have broken out to new highs.)

Put on your Rally caps and watch volume Today should be the day that we know if the money on the sidelines is willing to start to get back into stocks.

Volume showed a wee bit of new money did come into the market, but let’s see if it gets sustained. CNBC and everyone who has money invested in Wall Street is cheerleading for that money to return (see above editorial)

So we’ve had at least a one day rally, but more importantly we’ve fundamentally had top line (sales) growth from Intel and some minor companies.

* JPM , Perhaps the #2 shadow financial institution also hit an earnings home run. Remember, instead of TARP money going toward the elimination of bad debt (credit default swaps) all the Bush and Obama administration have done is shovel money at them and allow them less transparent accounting. Most likely shadow banks/financials are hoarding funds because their real debt from the financial crisis is still huge.

Google & IBM are the next major tech to report after markets close today.

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 40% (I haven’t done the math) off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI nine day rally flattened out two days ago and has fallen 99 points. It fell a -49 points yesterday and closed at 2579 . Even though a reversal seems eminent, we have technically achieved a higher high even though the BDI is falling.  Another 100+ point drop well start to get a little concerned and the line in the sand support level is 2163Bullish for stocks & world trade right now

——-

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

Stocks went up so guess what happened to the dollar – The dollar reached a new yearly low fell a significant -0.46 % The dollar closed at $75.47. We have developed a support level just below $76 . The dollar closed below its support level. = Bullish for stocks

NB –

  • Earnings will probably trump the dollar as the #1 influencing factor for the nest two weeks. But the falling dollar is the main driver of stocks right now and we have a long way to go till we hit last year’s $71 low.
  • A slow decline in the dollar = good a rapid decline = bad .

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major and very crucial support level.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

See comments section of blog for a complete update on positions.

EWZ – Brazil up +4.05 % yesterday is starting to go parabolic.  It’s going up way too fast as investors are chasing the stock.

GLD – Remains a solid buy the dip opportunity (even small dips)

XLF, UYG & FAS (big financials/shadow banks) are also buy the dip opportunities . UYG is riskier and FAS is most risky. Traders could see a buy the dip opportunity today.

Sold FAS yesterday for +8% profit

Your (Monitor’s) Questions – See comment section of blog

INTC did fizzle yesterday – up only +1.66% vs our positions in China (up +3.55% ) and Brazil (4.05%) Technically, Intel had gone up almost 40% last quarter and a whole lot right before earnings – so the higher price was already built into the stock. China & Brazil have not had the same huge run up, although Brazil is reaching the same overbought position that INTC.

For US and other countries to move forward we’ll have to see other companies show top line sales growth.

Outlook is still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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March 25, 2009

Market Updates- How many more bubbles have to burst?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Today - How many more bubbles have to burst before we take action? Obama’s getting hammered by the far left, far right, & reporters  - yet he pulls off another another press conference with grace, substance, and and purpose. YOUR comments bring up some different and provocative points of view.  The one chart or index that’s on the cutting edge of the rally .  IBM and Green technology. 

Photo

Meet The Press

You can read a full transcript of last night’s press conference here. American’s demands microwave solutions and turning around the economy is not something that’s going to happen overnight. The last 8 years built a massive deficit and a massive financial problem. What Barack showed was a command not only as a communicator but in the details of what he’s trying to accomplish.

Obviously, this blog takes its shots at his administration, but I truly hope he succeeds.

You

Three different comments bring up well reasoned and different points of view. See comment section on the side of blog. 

  • Popeye – References a Bill Gross article (check out the graph in the editorial) on Shadow Banks
  • Fred Mays – Seemed to know exactly what Obama would say in his press conference and called for patience and long term thinking.
  • ewanapat - Also defended Obama and brought up his editorial that was published in 31 papers across the world.

The One Chart

Will the stock rally fizzle again? There’s one chart that’s on the cutting edge. See technical analysis section below.

IBM goes Green

IBM hops aboard high-speed rail

IBM is helping to build high speed energy efficient trains in China, Taiwan and the Netherlands. Also this is going to mean a lot of new jobs for those countries. One wonders how much of Obama’s alternative energy proposals will get cut from the budget. Full story from CNET

Cyclical vs. Structural

There are those who think that all we have to do is do nothing, others believe the shadow banking system will fix itself, others think the only problem is toxic assets. These are all reactionary solutions 

Investors411 looks at economics structurally. Granted its hard to structurally solve economic problems like energy, education and heath care with the deficit we’ve built up.  But unless we structurally change the bubbles will keep bursting and America will keep sinking. For more see Overview section of blog.

How many more bubbles have to burst before we deal with the structural problems?

________________

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

 

Stocks

-

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -1.49% down
NASDQ -2.52% down
S&P500 -2.03% down
Russell2000 -3.91% -

-

Technicals & Fundamentals

Stocks retreated and volume dropped.  Well over 1/2 the gains of Monday’s huge rally held up. The dip was a bit too large, but the fall in volume is just what you want to see if you are bullish or long the markets.

We are reaching one of those critical inflection points. Over the past 6 months stocks have rallied twice over 20% only to fall back into the bear market. This is the third attempt (+21%) at a breakout. There is one chart that’s on the cutting edge. If we can break the series of lower lows and lower highs on this leading index there is hope that we can end the bear market cycle.

The One Chart

It’s the NASDQ. It is leading the other indexes in performance since the bear market began.  If you look at the chart (see left hand side of blog) you’ll notice a series of lower highs on the NASDQ that started in early 2009

  • Early Jan. high of 1665,63
  • Early Feb. high of 1598.50
  • Two days ago high of 1555.77
Notice this sets up a series of lower highs.  If we can break this on the leading index then, technically, there is hope that the other indexes will follow. So NASDQ 1598.50 is the magic number or resistance level we need to rise above.
Secondary IndicatorsThe Baltic Dry Sea Index (measures flow of trade) rallied before the markets turned and over the last 5 days it’s started to fall again (see chart at side of blog)
Reading the Tea Leaves – We’ve reached the area where the other rallies have run out of steam. So what happens over the next few days is critical.  741 is the line in the sand downside benchmark on the S &P 500.  There is a less significant support level at 804 – just 2 points above where the SPX now is.
 
Best move for stocks today would be a flat to slightly higher.

Long Term Outlook CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

 

 


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January 21, 2009

Market Update – Inauguration from Jamaica

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Obama - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The overwhelming crowd in Washington was certainly uplifting. However, at our hotel far more Jamaican’s than white American’s on holiday joined together to watch Obama take the oath of office. Tears flowed freely in the room. Obama’s inauguration has had a major impact on Jamaican’s and others throughout the world. At least now there is hope, but hope alone in not enough.

Another interesting point is that the resorts and plane flights were packed with people = what recession.

Banks

Updates has warned over the impending meltdown in financial/bank stocks. (see below) Bank prices collapsed yesterday and the FLX (see below) reached new lows. Now Bank of America and Citi group, two huge financials loaded with credit default swaps, are again melting down. Will the Obama administration, like the Bush administration just throw money at these and other institutions without any accountability or transparency?

One major concern – It was Obama’s new chief economist Larry Summers (as Clinton’s Tres. Sec. Clinton) who enthusiastically supported the deregulation that opened the door for most of the problems are swamping financial companies.

Few banks made any loans with the cash they were given in part 1 of the TARP. England and other countries have nationalized trouble banks that were "too big to fail" and are forcing these institutions to make loans instead of buying other banks, paying dividends, & handing out bonuses. Obama’s administration this AM halted the regulatory process pending review.

Bottom Line – Over the last few decades we have cut government so that it became too weak to regulate big business. Mega companies from CitiGroup to General to GM proved that left to themselves they were incapable of self regulation.

The absolutism of "free trade" and "free markets" have let greed run wild. Combine this with no real central planing and an eviscerated government. The result is a stock market, country and world facing the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Remember – You should be very critical of TARP part 1, but it did prevent a worldwide run on the banks. While major banks are in trouble there is currently no run on the banks.

Stocks.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Headline – Financial Meltdown

Index % Change Volume

Dow -4.01% down
NASDQ -5.78% down
S&P500 -5.28% down
Russell2000 -7.03% –

Brown = same comments as yesterday.

US Market & Foreign Markets

Technicals – Major meltdown led by financials. The Dow broke through its major support at 8,000 and ended the day at 7949.

XLF is the financial sector ETF Chart here. As the chart shows financials fell another -16.53% yesterday to new lows. Financials used to be the largest sector of the market and may no longer hold that distinction. But, they are certainly capable of leading all major indexes lower. Other banking indexes are approaching or have broken through November lows. Mega banks Bank of America and Citigroup are leading this deterioration. The problem is all their over leveraged debt. (credit default swaps)

Bank Sector is collapsing. Volume did NOT increase (probably because of the inauguration). However this sector could easily drag the rest of the American and foreign markets with it.

Chart of the benchmark S&P 500

Chart of the Russell 2000

Chart of the NASDQ

Chart of the Dow

Fundamentals – All the talk of passing the second 1/2 of the TARP ($350 billion) is focusing investor attention on the problems of the markets.

IBM – Had a very positive earnings report.

Both Citi and BAC are leading financials and the rest of stocks DOWN. State Street Bank and others are also getting clocked.

Forecasting Future Trends

LIBORLIBOR is the rate banks charge each other . It price has fallen from 3.4% three months ago to about 1.12% (good news for stocks)

LIBOR chart (3 month)

TreasuriesT Bills yields show how fearful investors are . The lower the rate the more the fear. Short term yields – 3 month T bill was falt at 0.07% and longer term treasuries were basically fell 10 year rose to to 2.38% (low yields show fearfull investors flooding to Treasuries instead of stocks – Bad news for stocks)

Treasury Bonds chart

Baltic Dry IndexMeasures flow of goods between countries . Yesterday it remailed flat . Almost 85% drop since June. (short term good news are the gains over the last two weeks)

BDI chart

Short Term Outlook/Strategy

Reading the Tea Leaves-

PANIC STILL RULES the credit markets

Strategy Shorting rallies to protect gains is working. (see below) Until we some light at the end of the recession tunnel VOLATILITY continues to be the most predictable major stock market trend. Obama rally (stimulus package) is holding up equities right now.

Support levels have broken for all major indexes. Dow at 8200 and has a minor support level at 8148 (see chart) and the psychological 8000 number. Both these levels have broken and the Dow is at 7949. The 8000 level is the line in the sand. If the Dow can regain 8000 today there is a chance we could rally.

The short term Obama inauguration rally has been OVERWHELMED by the financial meltdown.
We could stabilize today, but confidence in banks seem shattered. Economist Nourille Roubini yesterday announced that banks are basically insolvent. Any extended rally is impossible without a solvent banking sector.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Long Term Outlook – BEARS RULE

Changes to Bottom Line Section Bolded and in Plum or crossed out

Technicals – Series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs = Bears Rule.. Technical Range for 2009 – 7449 (low) and 9654.- This is a wild guess. Any sustained move above Dow 9650 is bullish.

Fundamentals – Financial transparency problem is far far far far far far far far far bigger than anyone thought. It’s looks like the recession will last through 2009 – perhaps longer

Asset Allocation/Recommended Sectors (long term)

50% to 90% Cash – Long Term Investors (up to 15 to 25+% stocks – only buy big dips) Wait for the next big dip to add 5 to 10%
Be Cautious and PROTECT YOUR MONEY (use ETF’s that short major indexes) when stocks have a big rally

*5+% US Index Funds
UWM (ETF that does 2x what Russell 2000 does) & QLD (ETF that does 2X the NASDQ ) DDM (ETF that does 2X the Dow ) SSO (ETF does 2X the S&P 500)

*5%+ Emerging Markets
EWZ (Brazil) should out perform other emerging markets in a rally and under perform in a fall – highest risk and dependent on oil prices
FXI (China ETF) should outperform USA

*5%+ Alternative Energy
GEX(Alternative energy ETF) Obama administration will focus on this area

*5+% Gold
GLD is the ETF for gold-

Chief Strategy – Buy the DIPS of trending sector – This is not your father’s buy and hold market – over the 8 Bush years the Dow has gone from 11,000 to 8000 and huge uncertainty clouds the future.

The major trend now is volatility.

Traders who have a strong tolerance for risk jump in on dips and invest more. Sell and/or go short into major rallies. Long term Investors who can tolerate risk and are 100% in cash nibble just a little on big dips. (5% on each big dip) Do not buy into rallies.

Shorting – Three ETF that short 2x what the major indexes do.

TWM – ultra short Russell 2000
QID – ultra short NASDQ
SDS – ultra short S&P 500

As Always Do Your Own Research Before Investing

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