• A rising MO 50DMA , what we have now, usually correlates with a bull run. The relatively rapid rise in the MO’s 50DMA (below 0 to +25) is almost always associated with a longer rally

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Fancy Pants Debt

If YOUR eyes gloss over when they explain economics (and even if they don’t)

This 3:49 seconds video is for you.

YOUR investments dollars, from the stock market to your houses value, depend on the quality of debt. So does world economics. Good debt, Bad debt and Fancy Pants debt.

The video is FUN, Entertaining, and educational.

John  Green does more than explain the Greek Crisis “which has pushed the Greek government close to defaulting on its loans, the reasons why the Euro zone and the IMF are desperately trying to bail Greece out, and what the rising cost of sovereign debt means for the massive budget deficits throughout the developed world.”

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• Technically, the huge 5 day move off a double bottom (prices make a low and test it – see charts on far right) is very bullish

• Fundamentally last week -we kicked the Greek debt problem down the road. But Greek debt - benchmark 2 year bond is selling at 26%. Is virtually impossible to adopt a massive austerity program and pay a huge 26% interest on the Greek two year bond at same time. Also China said has the inflation problem is under control - Premier Wen. This fueled the rally. However problems in China this AM

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +89.65 (above +30 somewhat overbought , above +60 overbought, above +90 OMG overbought) This is just a fraction from OMG overbought levels. 2009 was the last time the MO reached over +100 (twice) This began a long term bull run. Short term  overbought = Bearish

• $USD The Dollar stabilized after falling for a week. -0.06% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Short term tend for stocks now. Will stability hold? = Bullish/Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term  -OMG oversold levels will be reached in any stock rally. This put big pressure on rally to let off some steam. Repeat – Outside the HTF and Trading desks there are a bunch of normal day/swing traders who have missed the rally and are waiting to buy the first dip.

The 5 Day Bull Stampede

Long Term

weeks/months/years

• Still the risk of bad European debt and our own debt crisis confronting bulls. However, the silver lining investors see is low interest rates for a long time, a Fed managed US market and inflation fears diminishing in China and more time for banks in Europe cushion debt crisis. If there is a mediocre or poor jobs number (this Friday) this could even add oil to a burning hot fire that’s driving the bulls. Poor jobs = More Potential for Fed intervention and lower interest rates for a longer time.

• Bulls are back and they see a light at the end of a tunnel. If fundamentals in earnings season are decent (starts next week and earnings should do OK) we could go on a run. We are due for a overbought mini dip, but a move of this size off a double bottom in a very strong longer term bullish sign. As we switch from a temporary timeout in European debt to our own manufactured (July 22 deadline) debt crisis fundamentals matter. Still too early to raise NEUTRAL rating.

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Your Stock List

Paul has published to a spreadsheet of YSL #4 in the comments section of the blog.

Sorry many of you had problems with the old link

Like the past 3 YSL’s is beat the S&P 500 our benchmark S&P 500 again

A new YSL is under construction. If You are on the email List send in your choices to me this week.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Up  over 6% in six weeks and was held through the date that allows you to collect dividend. so add another 3% to 4% profit. = +10%

IMAX - Mea Culpa – As expected IMAX and 3D hit a major home run with the new Transformer’s movie over the weekend and I did NOT buy stock for Investors411 portfolio last Weekend. I would have sold IMAX into the Harry Potter movie July 15th.

Paul has published in the comments section (last week) some potential high growth buys

Short term strategy is to short overbought stocks. Bought 1/2 position in TZA near close Friday at 33.00.  MO closed at 89, just one point away from OMG oversold. Will sell quickly for a small gain.

Longer Term Strategy The 5 bulls is a major signal and there are many who missed the rally waiting to pile on.  We’re in NEUTRAL, but a possible positive senerio has appeared (see above)

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. (I’ve cut back on short ETF’s) – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

I very much like the position of going long High Growth Stocks (week to months and on dips) and/or longer term dividend plays – yet holding some sort of protection (preferably a Puts over a short term ETF that shorts) in case of sudden meltdowns.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

Paul is on break for a couple weeks, check Comments Section for a few weekly updates.

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Nobel Laureate Michael Spence has a workable solution for the Jobs crisis.

His book – The Next Convergence

The great illusion in the USA is somehow the private sector will bail us out. Baloney!

American Companies are doing GREAT. They are flush with $1.68 trillion in profits from last quarter. But as you all know (see past Investors411) they take that money and invest it overseas. Spence work looks into just that the loss of jobs here from 1980 to 2008. The money quote from Time Magazine

“The companies that did business in global markets, including manufacturers, banks, exporters, energy firms and financial services, contributed almost nothing to overall American job growth. The firms that did contribute were those operating mostly in the U.S. market, immune to global competition — health care companies, government agencies, retailers and hotels. Sadly, jobs in these sectors are lower paid and lower skilled than those that were outsourced.”

Spence offers a concrete formula for what the USA has to do to create jobs.

Solving The Job Problem

Germany in 2000 was faced with a huge economic problem of incorporating the much economically weaker East Germany with the far more weaalthy West Germany.

Government, labor leaders and CEO’s sat down together. Government offered companies temporary tax breaks if they would NOT outsource. Company leaders worked with educators to find the right skills they needed.

It worked!

( last page of the Time Magazine article referenced above has  more)

The solution is simple and obvious, yet the political polarization and the lobbyists in the USA keep tearing us apart.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

• Congratulations to both Paul & The Critic for taking profits at the close on Friday – Nobody ever went broke taking profits. (see comments section of blog) A good short term move.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell  to -67.93. US Stocks are oversold. (anything below -60 = oversold) Just like last week,  another “snapback” oversold rally is possible today. This is the most US stocks have been oversold since mid March

• How the week sets up from Jeff Miller in Seeking Alpha – A more bullish view.

• A debate on IMAX (An Investors411 favorite that is under pressure now) from Seeking Alpha - Bulls and Bears

• Reading The Tea Leaves – Repeat from Friday – “this looks like what they call a dead cat bounce.“ Obviously this happened Friday.

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Longer Term - Repeat from last week –  ”See May 20th blog for forecast for this summer.” Fundamentals in the end will trump technical analysis and fear/greed. But right now we are running on fear and that’s bearish.

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Fed Conspiracy Theories

There is no end to conspiracy theories since our financial system is run in the shadows. It a globalized world out there. Our Fed Bank will have purchased $600 billion by June 30th from the following “Primary” (that’s their term) Dealers.

Obviously the world’s globalized banking system is interconnected. The international banking cartel rules the world (If you define controlling the flow of money as ruling) Our Fed is the Big Kahuna in this system. But you may find it interesting that 12 of the 20 Primary Dealers are Foreign Banks. Foreign Banks are bolded and all 20 Primary Dealers listed below.

• NP Paribas Securities Corp.
• Barclays Capital Inc.
• Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
• Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
• Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
• Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.
• Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
• Goldman, Sachs & Co.
• HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
• Jefferies & Company, Inc.
• J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
• MF Global Inc.
• Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
• Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
• Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
• Nomura Securities International, Inc.
• RBC Capital Markets, LLC
• RBS Securities Inc.
• SG Americas Securities, LLC
• UBS Securities LLC.

You know how oceanographers tag a shark to see where it goes. I’d love to be able to tag the printed $ coming out of our US Treasury and see where it goes.

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

SLV/AGQ (later is very roughly 2x silver and another possibility)  SLV Sold 1/2 for +3% profit. Last part was stopped out at just above what it was bought for. Total Profit +2%

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. (I realize most of you do not know how to do this or perhaps understand the following, but like The Critic I have bought insurance on NLY - a July put at $18. This cost me  a bit less than 2% of NLY’s value)

Caution - “Owners of NLY should look at it chart. A 3 year history show that almost every time this stock and others like it get over extended there is a sharp one day high volume significant fall. Two major declines in the last six months and we are long overdue for the pattern to repeat itself. For prospective buyers after the dip is the time to buy.”

As predicted NLY has had a big drop(for NLY a @2% drop os two days is big)  I expect this drop will continue at least for today and perhaps break though its 50 day moving average.  Investors411 looks at NLY & AGNC as potential Buy the dip stocks because of big dividends. History (chart pattern shows that NLY can easily fall below its 50 day moving average, and that’s a potential buy point.

TZA - (3 times short small cap stocks) Bought 1/2 position in TZA (3x short small cap stocks) at 38.65 on Tuesday   Added another 1/2 position to TZA at 39.75 at/near open Wednesday.  Bought another 1/2 TZA position at 39.75 Thursday.

Investors411 has recommended using TZA or SDS as a hedge/insurance against losses in NLY or other dividend stocks (see past month blogs on dividend stocks.)  stocks) Although stocks may rally today the fundamentals behind the call are still solid and if you are using these short ETF’s I’d keep them in play.

Will add another full or 1/2 TZA positions on any modest market rally.

Repeat from last week - Therefore Strategy remains

• Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative) .
• Sell long positions into any rally -

Taking Profits –  Nobody goes broke taking profits. If you ate net short the market take the profits (I like anything above 5%) and short the next rally.

Disclosure - I own NLY, & TZA - I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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Le Scandal

Dominique Strauss-Kahn sex scandal “is a seismic event for the IMF and a major development for French presidential politics. But the implications for the eurozone crisis are probably being overdone.”

Strauss-Kahn is the head of the IMF and the leading contedner for the French Presidency. He was caught by police in a NYC hotel sex scandal with a maid. As head of the IMF he is obviously a mega player in financial circles with plenty of  friends and enemies. This is coming at a time Europe is in the middle of some crucial debt negotiations with Greece and other member states. Imagine Ben Bernanke caught with his pants down.

Perhaps the only saving grace is he was expected to resign to run for the presidency of France

More

• NPR
• AJC – Atlanta (latest)

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a significant +0.71% Friday.  Dollar bulls are on a big run that started 7 trading days ago. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo fell to -14.56. Still in the middle of its range. Almost equal room to rally or fall = Neutral

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Dividend Stocks

Part 3

Europe’s in trouble, Japan’s in crisis, unemployment remains high in the USA so its natural for investors to turn toward more defensive stocks and cash. Investors when they are worried tend to favor more defensive stocks. Example – People are addicted to cigarettes, they won’t stop smoking when times get tough, and those stocks also have a second stream of income – So a dividend stock often outperforms.

Today, because of time limitations I’m just going to print a lists of dividend stocks I own or am considering.  Investors411 will go over each one individually in the coming weeks and probably a couple more.  Some of the stocks have more growth potential and lower dividends others have higher dividends and perhaps less growth potential.

Caution – Not all of these are in a position to BUY right now. The list is NOT in order of preference. * denotes my family owns this stock.

Higher dividends – Ticker symbol and last dividend paid listed below – All of the below have flat or growing dividends over 3 years, many longer. Highest dividend stocks were covered last week.

• MO – 5.64%
• PM  -  3.73%
• KMP* – 6.11%
• EPD – 5.78 %
• DUK – 5.24%
• PGN – 5.27%
• HCN* – 5.58%
• VZ* – 5.23%
• T* – 5.50 %
• WIN – 7.42%
• CTL* -7.08%
• SNH* – 6.36%
• MRK -4.18
• LLY – 5.11%
• BCE* – 5.22%
• BMO* – 4.48%

More growth than dividend.

• CVX* – 3.03%
• MCD – 3.10%
• PG  - 3.22%
• CL – 2.73
• DD – 3.00%
• GIS – 2.90%

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Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves - The dollar is rising and Le Scandal should add some combustion to the rally. The MO is in neutral, so what usually is a decent (“merger”) Monday is looking bearish.

We’ve seen a roll over in most commodities (huge volume) , emerging markets, and some high beta names. Also, a corresponding move to defensive positions and cash. I don’t think this is Chicken Little, end of the world., but reason for caution.  When the MO  near gets below -60 there will be some kind of counter rally.

There’s a whole pot of Fed induced growing US dollars out there. There’s a whole pot of dollars coming out of commodities. – Where is that money going to go? Probably into stocks

The counter argument is the Fed stops it’s liquidity injections June 30th.  The counter counter argument is if things get bad enough the Fed will find some way to inject more $ into the market.

Bottom Line - We may see selling this week – However, Don’t fight the Fed has worked. The whole CME Group  raising margins to stop the silver rally may just be part of  the Fed’s managing/manipulations. The dollar going higher, ironically, gives the Fed more room to manage/manipulate.  All this has consequences in the long term, but its the Fed’s game and with the head of the IMF in deep do do the Fed becomes even stronger.

Check out the Quantitative Easing chart in the STRATEGY (click on word STRATEGY on top of blog or the link) Section of the blog. The stock market didn’t end between QE 1 & 2.

So Investors411 is going to stick with what works till its broken.  An MO approaching -60 is a signal to buy. Maybe later its red, but for now a yellow flag

Disclosure - I or my family have positions in REMX, NLY & GNC. I run a fund with a long term position in GLD

The Investors411 Portfolios – See POSITIONs Section of blog. – Click on word POSITIONS at top of page.

• REMX – Dipped below its 50 day moving average on Friday. Not good news.
• NLY and AGNC (two recommended high dividend stocks) Bought NLY at 17.14.
• YOUR Stock List stocks according to longer term market outlook CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH are  in a position to buy. Shorter term Investors411 feels a lower MO is a superior buying position. Also each stock individual performance obviously matters. See Paul’s remark’s on right side of blog.
• See last Monday and Wednesday’s Blog for more on Dividend Stocks.
• IMAX from YSL was up +5.34% Friday. Thor broke an IMAX record and There are some big summer block busters coming up in IMAX 3D. IMAX has been the most talked about stock in Investors411 since Avatar opened.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Trust Buster president Teddy Roosevelt – Will Obama show us the same tonight?

Tea Party

“The tea party’s exaggerated importance” is the headline of the  major independent blog editorial blog Politico’s this AM on the “anti Obama rage group” .

Mea Culpa – I do respect the Tea Party because at Investor411 they have won. By focusing attention on their white (in the words of the old Ivory Snow commercial this group is 99 44/100% white)  rage I have taken it away time from facts on the deficit or Health Care.

The NYT’s lead editorial yesterday was on Massachusetts heath care system “which 1/2 of Scott Brown supporters and 2/3 of all Massachusetts residents like.”(paraphrase) according to a poll. 97% of MA residents are covered. For more see “Reform and Massachusetts.”

BRIC

The Economist has a  has an in depth look at the top emerging markets as a real alternative economic force to the European Union & America.  BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China whose leaders are or just finished meeting together in Brazil.  “The Trillion Dollar Club”

The Obama Speech

Tonight’s speech on financial reform is a defining moment. Will Obama be the next Teddy Roosevelt ? (A Republican Trust buster) The short answer is NO. Senate Democrat Ted Kaufman (Dem. DE) is our Teddy Roosevelt – Here’s part 2 of his speech on Wall Street and the Rule of Law

One piece of encouraging news is Senator Blanche Lincoln (Dem  AK) committee has a Republican onboard (Grassly- R IA) for her legislation on derivatives. Lincoln has come up with a stronger bill than other proposals.

NYTs headlines Obama Issues Sharp Call for Reforms on Wall Street If this is true you’ll see a 2 to 5% decline in shadow banks tomorrow. It Teddy Roosevelt or Ted Kaufman gave the speech you’ll see a 5 to 10%+ fall in shadow financials tomorrow.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Market went nowhere yesterday in increased above average volume. What Wall Street calls “churning.” Usually considered a reversal of trend = Bearish

Yesterday’s grand slam earnings reports by giants APPL & BAC (thank you taxpayer bailout, Fed 0% loans, & elimination of mark to market accounting) did little to move markets higher. US markets have reacted poorly to great news indicates  = Bearish

Seeking Alpha this AM has a big section on the problems  China has. Here’s one article . Investors411 has closed its entire China position (FXI).

Earnings reports continue to pour in.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose slightly to -4.91 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. - This is almost right in the middle of NEUTRAL territory
• US Dollar – rose +0.19% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. The positive earnings reports are overshadowing the dollar which is in the middle of a consolidating range between @$80.00 & @$82.20. Dollar at 81.18. If it moves to either side of that range it will impact stocks.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Both Comments from The Critic & Paul R were incorporated in the strategy section of the blog. You can see them by linking here or at any time in the future going to the top of the blog and clicking on the word STRATEGY

Caution – I do on occasion day trade. None of this is part of Investors411. Almost all of you are looking for something to hold for a period of time.

When to Buy? – McClellan Index - Only 8 times in the last year did this index reach below -60 = oversold = a time to buy. Even then tow of those tomes were within a few days of each other. Therefore the total was only 6 times. The last time was back in early February. Its frustrating not to buy or sell, but Investors411 is going to wait till we are oversold to commit major amounts of capital.

UWM – [ETF that does 2x what small cap stocks do] UMW is back in the black and at a new high although only up a couple %. Almost closed this position. Going to sell at or near open today.

IMAX – imax hit a new high yesterday in a “pop and drop” (see yesterday’s Investors411) At one point in time it was up almost +9% and end the day at +2.94%. Volume was @ 3x normal.  Some entity perhaps more than one broke Imax out to a new high. All the day and swing traders jumped in after the break out. There was some China news,but this turned out to be not as big as its headline.  Then the dropping or profit taking came as IMAX fell up to 8%.

IMAX has had  some other pumps and dumps over the last few months. Investors411 called this pump and dump yesterday. This kind of trade is only for day/swing traders (not investors) who know what they are doing and can handle the risk. Not a recommend trade by Investors411 Yes I bought some Imax to day trade early yesterday and made a 5% profit on this.

Paul R on comments section recommends VCI,, that’s held onto its breakout from a consolidation period yesterday. Volume not strong,but it has possibilities for longer term investors

Monitor Likes SHOO – more a short term trade because it is too far extended from 50DMA (Day Moving Average – If you do not recognize what 50DMA was you should NOT be trading these stocks!)

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

IMAX arc and camera

The Country is Headed in the Right/Wrong Direction

From Pollster.com a compilation of polls Note the trend.

Going Green to the Extreme

The Far Left has its own extreme views. Example – Lisa Hymas – Going Green is a reason NOT to have kids.  Her editorial - Say it loud: I’m child free and I’m proud. Money quote

“the single most meaningful contribution I can make to a cleaner, greener world is to not have children.”

Sorry Lisa, almost everyone feels completely different about kids than you.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made each weekend

Another rally day in falling well below average volume. = Bearish

Stocks rallied despite a significant rally in the dollar, oil prices at new highs, and the 10 year treasury bond hitting 4.00% yesterday (see chart on right side of blog) = Bullish

This chart of the benchmark S&P 500 at top has something called the RSI (Relative Strength Index) It is another indicator like the McCellan Oscillator that show when a market is overbought.  In this case overbought= over +70. The SPX now stands at +73.96.. In fact all major US indexes, according to the RSI are overbought.

There many different ways to technically measure buy and sell points (overbought & oversold). The RSI is one and it, unlike the McCellan says we are overbought. Right now the McClellan is working better than the RSI because we haven’t yet crashed and burned. So, for now, Investors411 is going to stay with the McCellan because its working.

When to Hold ‘em and When to Fold ‘em

Stocks – Investors411 has historically sought long term positions (hopefully years or many months) that follow trends. For a List of those trends click on Overview at top of blog. Unfortunately, along came the September 2008 meltdown/recession and those trends got interrupted or broken.  So shorter term positions became more desirable.  The lack of transparency clouding invstments and technology making everything quicker has impcted trends and markets.

Let’s look at two recent buys. IMAX & DWA One worked the other did not. Why.

IMAX – Up 40 to 50% since purchased.

• First there was a fundamental reason to buy IMAX. New technology trend in 3D is emerging and people are willing to pay more for the IMAX experience. Technically the long term chart also looked good.
• But now IMAX’s RSI is at 79.14 (well into overbought territory) and it is the furthest it has eve been over its 50 day moving average. There are a lot of other warning signs but I’m trying to keep this simple.
• Why hold fundamentally – the technology  trend/ demand is still in place and growing for 3D technology. More Imax theaters and a move into TV is emerging. Some potentially block buster 3D movies like Iron Man 2 and another Shrek are coming out.
• Why hold technically – For longer term investors, even though this stock is overbought, it is melting up in weaker volume. If there was a big volume rally (going elliptical) it would be time to sell.
• Technically IMAX is ahead of itself and you’d love to see a sideways consolidation. Yep, you could see a sudden dip, but right now there are plenty of investors wishing they had bought and they will purchase the first dip.

So for now Investors411 will stay put with IMAX and even nibble some more on a dip.

DWA – Lost -4%

• Dreamworks, DWA, looked like a perfect complement to IMAX. Proven kids films and a handful coming out in 3D would increase profits. So Investors “bought the dip” before the Dragons film was release. Technically a not great, but reasonable long term chart.
• What happened fundamentally – Dragon’s did not live up to expectations, in part because of the success of other 3D films (Titans & AIWL) Too many 3D films competing for too few screens. Good for IMAX and bad for DWA.
• I never like losses to exceed 7% (This came out of an old Investor’s Business Daily trading strategy) DWA did go up almost 10%, but Investors is looking for longer term holds or trends it was held.
• What happened technically – A downside move in heavy volume that broke a support level. So both technically and fundamentally there were reasons to sell.

Realize that there are lots of sharks that know more than you or me. What we can do is identify a trend and use some simple technical signs in trading. If the trend and the technicals covered are collapsing or going elliptical in big volume you fold ‘em. If the McCellan goes too high you fold ‘em.

Some of you use other ways to protect stock purchases like selling covered calls and using exponential moving averages.  These sophisticated investors like Paul R. know what they are doing. Most of you just want something to buy and hold that goes up or outperforms over a longer period.

CAUTION – There is nothing out there that’s a sure thing and everything has become riskier since the Lehman collapse and inability to fix the problem.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose significantly to +19.12 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – This downward trading pattern has been broken. Moving toward overbought territory
• US Dollar – rose a significant +0.51% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.]

As stated before -What the dollar does over the next few weeks is critical to stocks and economics around the world. Falling dollar good for stocks & rising dollar bad in the short term

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend Monday) - These are positions I actually own

Limited time this AM – Will try for YOUR Stock List tomorrow. FYI – one recommendation CREE was up over 10% yesterday.

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Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

The Best & Worst of Investors411-March

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Psychologist Kahneman & Pandemic expert Brilliant

Economics, Politics – Editorials

The Best

1. The Israeli/American nobel prize winning father of behavioral economics Daniel Kahneman video on how one memory of a longer term experience can impact YOUR happiness and pain. (Thanks to one of you who discovered this valuable presentation) LINK
2. Perhaps the world’s most renowned epidemiologist Dr Larry Brilliant video His case for “Informed Optimism” is outstanding and different from the 3/22 video LINK. His case for how poverty causes worldwide epidemics, from Small Pox to Ebola, and those that are doing something about it impacts everyone.
3. The Cleveland Clinic’s Dr. Cosgrove’s interview in Fortune magazine brought new insight into the health car debate. Of course health care is going to cost more as the huge baby boomer demographic gets older and technology simply gets better at treating illness. However the root causes of American’s self indulgent problem is “Obesity, Smoking,  & lack of exercise” LINK

The Worst

1. In general – I sensationalize. From headlines like “Baby Killer” to “The Black Widows” I do this first to attract your attention
2. Stereotyping one side in a debate is just plain over the top. My excuse – sometimes you just get sooooo angry that emotions overwhelm logic.
3. Too much time is spent on pointing out what’s broken and not enough on how to fix it. Although long term readers, of Investors 411 should notice that”s changed over the years. There’s a lot more HOPE or SOLUTIONS (Kahneman, Brilliant, & Cosgrove) but there’s still more to go.

Stocks

The Best

1. The March 5th upgrade to Cautiously Bullish -US Markets have gone from negative to over a 5% gain when they open tomorrow.
2. YOUR Stock List – It’s time consuming to produce but offers a wealth of ideas. Lead by SHOO and IMAX many have had solid runs higher this month.
3. (these are from past months) Introduction of McCellan Oscillator (it works on broad markets, but nothing works forever and its certainly not 100%) and IMAX (recognition of 3D technologies potential)

The Worst

1. Prediction – Obamacare’s passage was going to hurt the US  stock market. !00% wrong. People’s mouth(Right wing investment community) were in one place, but there money was in another. If anything Obamacare juiced the markets, because the rally blinked for a 1/2 hour then continued.
2. Reluctance to be more fully invested. For longer term investors still think this is good. Nothing’s been fixed financially, the problem has been underestimated & hidden, and there are more shoes to drop. However for riskier investors who have the time, discipline, and understanding to be in and out of a stock/ETF within a day, week, or month(s) its a mistake.

Mad Hatter/Johnney Depp frm Alice

Will Technology Save Us?

Using fancy complex technology to do shadow bank financing certainly facilitated a global financial meltdown.  However, having now seen Tim Burton (a gifted director) Alice In Wonderland in IMAX 3d I’ve fallen through the looking glass over advancements in 3 D technology again.  Two new films “Dragons” (saw previews to this and would consider flying to Fargo ND to take my grandkids to this film) and “Titans” are fighting it out with Alice for the limited number of 3D screens. There are 24 more 3D movies on the way this year.

Health Care’s Last, Last Stand

Like in the Terminator movies Arnold just kept coming and coming after you. Sometimes he was the good guy sometimes the bad.  Well, yesterday ultra lefty congressman Dennis Kucinich flip flopped and now may be Obama’s  St Patrick day’s luck charm on health care. For more see Health Cares Last Stand (scroll down)

Damage Control

The Catholic Church brings many people closer to God and has fought for many social justice issues.  However, this whole business about pedophile priests has been a nightmare that they have made worse because they just have little concept of how to do damage control.  Sure these events are horrific but stop trying to cover it up or whitewash everything. More here & here & here Then again basically ignoring is a form of damage control.

Off With Their Heads

Ted Kaufman is now by far the strongest Senator is calling for reform on Wall Street. Bravo. WSJ article & MIT’s Simon Johnson‘s  “Fraud Still at the Heart of Wall Street.” on Kaufman. Perhaps we should do what they did to the head of North Korea’s financial chief -  When he messed up - He got executed.

Baseball = Evil, Football = Good

The reality is sometimes more socialist systems do work better than capitalist systems in generating revenue. Hard to argue in the USA institutionally baseball is in decline while football is rising. Big market teams win, get fans and revenue. Small makets almost always loose, fands leave and so does revenue.  In football they have a strict team salary cap and strict progressive draft system. Their stadiums are almost all full, their championships and media rating are skyrocketing.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Volume was moderate and up a wee bit, as stocks advanced yesterday. Volume is half heartedly confirming a much less than stellar two day rally. This short rally was built on a two week low volume rally. Technically as we again approach oversold levels, volume, the #1 confirmation factor of a price move, is giving us a slightly bullish signal

Since the Oscillator Investors uses is not yet overbought we have some wiggle room for stocks to move higher in the short term.

Technicaly, this its like there is a whole group of soldiers assaulting a barricade (pushing out to even higher highs). These soldiers seem to be moving very slowly for a charge, but progress is progress.  Once we hit oversold territory progress should slow even further.

Fundamentally “stocks could pick up steam today because of weekly jobless claims (better than expected) and “quadruple witching” (don’t worry if you do not know what quadruple witching is but it is fascinating to see all those traders flying around the NY stock exchange on their broom sticks)

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose to +51.86 yesterday. We still under, but getting close to +60 or Overbought territory. The recent high two weeks ago was 75.33 StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From yesterday – “I’m going to try to play TYH again on a small dip (if it happens) and sell it when markets get oversold. Again I’ll have a tight 3% stop.  The mistake was not to invest in a stock or ETF yesterday after it became obvious that US markets were reacting positively to what the Fed said at 2:15 EST.” Missed out when TYH dipped in the AM because I was doing taxes – bummer. The window is closing on this short term play the closer we get to oversold. Would have to see a 1 to 2 % drop in TYH to consider entering trade again today.

Going to build up to a 20% position in stocks involved with 3D technology. They can’t build 3D theaters fast enough to keep up with the demand. 3D TVs started being sold last month and a 3D channel is supposed to begin within a year.  See Tuesday’s Investors411 for more. (use calender on top of blog and click on Tuesday 5/16 then scroll down)

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

The Empire Forever-Photo from Atlantic

Israel’s Knife in Biden’s Back

VP Joe Biden, who many consider the greatest friend of Israel ever had  in the US Senate, has spent about a week in Israel.  He opened with gushing words of support for Israel. The next day Israel announced 1600 new homes in what Palestinians believe is their land. The far right Israeli government put a knife in the American backed peace process and basically said F— Y– to Obama. Laura Rosen from Politico on reaction

Janet Yellin for Fed Vice Chair

The Fed has an enormous influence over YOUR life. Janet Yellin has been leaked as Obama’s choice.  Almost all extremely well qualified choices like Yelin are quickly approved. But times have changed and politics rule. Experience, Intellectual rigor, have become secondary to political views.

Insults in Afghanistan

Iran’s Ahmadinejad (Add 911 was a CIA conspiracy, plus the old holocaust didn’t happen to his list of pronouncements) and Sec. of Defense Gates traded insults while both were in Afghanistan. Both visited so called “President” Karzai. Story link from foreign press.

A BRIC Wall

BRIC = the emerging market giants Brazil, Russia, India and China who many seem to think are taking an opposing view to US policy – On the front burner, see National Interest piece, on blockingsanctions for Iran

Public Option’s Last Try

Bernie Sanders will introduce the public option sooner rather than later

Empire Forever

Robert Kaplan has an outstanding piece in the Atlantic on Afghanistan & the American Empire.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Almost the exact same as yesterday-” Another melt up day in decreased volume.” This is now a mantra. Volume is NOT confirming the move higher.

Again same as yesterday – “As suggested yesterday the XLF (ETF for financial stocks) was one of several possible catalysts for continuing the rally. As the chart shows, its broken out to new highs over the last two days in increased volume. Basically, any meaningful attempt to shadow institutions and bring transparency to related markets is getting crushed. Therefore, it sure looks like the shadow financials  will add fuel to the stock rally.” This move higher is being led by Citigroup which move up &% yesterday and traded an overwhelming billion+ shares again.  This stock, like IMAX,  is going elliptical and expect it to run out of juice today.

The benchmark S&P 500 closed directly on its 18 month high. Obviously, momentum is with the bulls.

3 positions are open on the Fed and Janet Yellen has been leaked as the choice.

Retail numbers [just came in much better than expected = rally ho] and consumer confidence this AM – Both significant fundamentals that can move the market.

As long as mild melt ups continue outlook remains bullish.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell a bit to +60.06 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. Last week the NYMO reached a high of 75.33. It looks like we could get above that. So there is room for a short term trade, but longer term overbought = sell
• BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks. After flattening for a few days it is once again moving higher = Bulls rule

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From Yesterday “ IMAX – has exploded higher in HUGE volume.  It has “gaped” higher three days in a row.  In short, its going elliptical. That means expect a pull back. IMAX also reports earnings today.” IMAX “gapped” higher at the open again and was up over 7% and ended the day down 1.00% in HUGE  volume.  Best read of tea leaves is IMAX will take another day or two to settle then consolidate of move up. 

Mistake was to not sell some IMAX when stock “gapped” higher.(Up 7%)

From yesterday “Shorter term traders – Even though we are overbought, it sure looks like the McClellan will reach above 80 sooner rather than later. You might want to go long with TYH(3X technology) or FAS (3X what financials do) Buy a dip and keep tight stops.” Bought a 10% (Of portfolio) position in TYH at 151.50. Put stop at that 151.5 and may sell 1/2 for 3 to 5% gain hopefully today. TYH closed at 154.99

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Senator Ted Kaufman (D DE)

Financial Reform

Sadly, financial reform of greed based capitalism, shadow banks, and greater market transparency continues to deteriorate. At times it seems  as if  the 2008 meltdown never happened

Steve Forbes, this AM on CNBC proudly announced the list of the world’s richest billionaires has significantly grown in size and money, as real unemployment is the USA has fallen to near 20% (The billionaire, obviously, did not offer the last 1/2 of this comparison) Forbes, of course, does not want “big” government to regulate greed based capitalism. Outside of a few voices within the Obama administration (Paul Volker, Elizabeth Warren etc.) both the administration and the lobbyist that dominate congress seem to agree – Let business take all the risks it wants and us taxpayers plus our kids will pay trillions to fix all their mistakes

Senator Ted Kaufman (D-DE) is one of the people who is not afraid to stand up for rules based capitalism. On his website is the speech he plans to deliver today.

One legacy of the Great Depression was we built a rules based capitalist system that endured and dominated the world until a few decade ago. Here’s a summary of his ideas from The Baseline Senerio

• Excessive deregulation allowed big finance to get out of control from the 1980s – but particularly during and after the 1990s.  This led directly to the economic catastrophe in 2007-08.

• We need to modernize and apply the same general principles that were behind the Glass-Steagall, i.e., separating “boring” but essential commercial banking (running payments, offering deposits-with-insurance, etc) from “risky” other forms of financial activity

• We need size caps on the biggest banks in our financial system, preferably as a percent of GDP.

• We should tighten capital requirements substantially.

• And we must regulate derivatives more tightly – on this issue, he likes at least some of the steps being pushed by Gary Gensler at the CFTC.

The stock market will rise because Senator Kaufman’s speech is NOT impending legislation. But unless we do something we will continue to repeat the mistakes of the past and every taxpayer and their child will continue to pay an enormous price - “socializing the risk and privatizing the gain”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Another melt up day in decreased volume. Right now it seems, even though US markets are overbought, they are poised to move higher on any piece of good news.

As suggested yesterday the XLF (ETF for financial stocks) was one of several possible catalysts for continuing the rally. As the chart shows, its broken out to new highs over the last two days in increased volume.  Basically, any meaningful attempt to shadow institutions and bring transparency to related markets is getting crushed. Therefore, it sure looks like the shadow financials  will add fuel to the stock rally

Shorter term traders - Even though we are overbought, it sure looks like the McClellan will reach above 80 sooner rather than later. You might want to go long with TYH(3X technology) or FAS (3X what financials do) Buy a dip and keep tight stops.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose a bit to +64.63 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
• BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule BDI has flattened out in the last tree days

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

IMAX – has exploded higher in HUGE volume.  It has “gaped” higher three days in a row.  In short, its going elliptical. That means expect a pull back. IMAX also reports earnings today.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING