Senator Ted Kaufman (D DE)

Financial Reform

Sadly, financial reform of greed based capitalism, shadow banks, and greater market transparency continues to deteriorate. At times it seems  as if  the 2008 meltdown never happened

Steve Forbes, this AM on CNBC proudly announced the list of the world’s richest billionaires has significantly grown in size and money, as real unemployment is the USA has fallen to near 20% (The billionaire, obviously, did not offer the last 1/2 of this comparison) Forbes, of course, does not want “big” government to regulate greed based capitalism. Outside of a few voices within the Obama administration (Paul Volker, Elizabeth Warren etc.) both the administration and the lobbyist that dominate congress seem to agree – Let business take all the risks it wants and us taxpayers plus our kids will pay trillions to fix all their mistakes

Senator Ted Kaufman (D-DE) is one of the people who is not afraid to stand up for rules based capitalism. On his website is the speech he plans to deliver today.

One legacy of the Great Depression was we built a rules based capitalist system that endured and dominated the world until a few decade ago. Here’s a summary of his ideas from The Baseline Senerio

• Excessive deregulation allowed big finance to get out of control from the 1980s – but particularly during and after the 1990s.  This led directly to the economic catastrophe in 2007-08.

• We need to modernize and apply the same general principles that were behind the Glass-Steagall, i.e., separating “boring” but essential commercial banking (running payments, offering deposits-with-insurance, etc) from “risky” other forms of financial activity

• We need size caps on the biggest banks in our financial system, preferably as a percent of GDP.

• We should tighten capital requirements substantially.

• And we must regulate derivatives more tightly – on this issue, he likes at least some of the steps being pushed by Gary Gensler at the CFTC.

The stock market will rise because Senator Kaufman’s speech is NOT impending legislation. But unless we do something we will continue to repeat the mistakes of the past and every taxpayer and their child will continue to pay an enormous price - “socializing the risk and privatizing the gain”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.o3%	down
NASDQ	+0.78%	down
S&P 500	+0.45%	down
Russell 2000	+0.79%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Another melt up day in decreased volume. Right now it seems, even though US markets are overbought, they are poised to move higher on any piece of good news.

As suggested yesterday the XLF (ETF for financial stocks) was one of several possible catalysts for continuing the rally. As the chart shows, its broken out to new highs over the last two days in increased volume.  Basically, any meaningful attempt to shadow institutions and bring transparency to related markets is getting crushed. Therefore, it sure looks like the shadow financials  will add fuel to the stock rally

Shorter term traders - Even though we are overbought, it sure looks like the McClellan will reach above 80 sooner rather than later. You might want to go long with TYH(3X technology) or FAS (3X what financials do) Buy a dip and keep tight stops.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose a bit to +64.63 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
• BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule BDI has flattened out in the last tree days

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

IMAX – has exploded higher in HUGE volume.  It has “gaped” higher three days in a row.  In short, its going elliptical. That means expect a pull back. IMAX also reports earnings today.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs

Perhaps the #1 Shadow Banker

Congressional Wimps

The Barons of Banking went in front of Congress yesterday and what happened the can best be described in the fact that the XLF (The ETF that measures financial institutions) went up +1.13 .  Congress didn’t lay a glove on the Barons of the Shadow Banks. The Foxes are still in charge of the hen house.

The first step in all this is the restoration of  of the Glass Steagall Act . In 1999 the GS act forever changed big banks from conservative institutions to ones that traded financial Weapons of Mass Destruction (Warren Buffett’s words for CDS’s)

As stated before , we’ve even allowed the "too big to fail financials " NOT to have standard mark to market accounting rules.

Its like robbers (an inside job) blew a hole in the side of a bank wall and took money. You – the taxpayer – insured the losses. But the hole is still there and the bank is not telling us what we lost .

Even The National Geographic Magazine

Weighs in on heath care with a chart Other countries have significantly more doctor’s visits, live much longer and cost far less.

"Why the high cost? The U.S. has a fee-for-service system—paying medical providers piecemeal for appointments, surgery, and the like. That can lead to unneeded treatment that doesn’t reliably improve a patient’s health. Says Gerard Anderson, a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who studies health insurance worldwide, “More care does not necessarily mean better care ."

On Tuesday Massachusetts votes for a Senator and basically the election is turning into a referedum on Health Care.

Remember to check out Comments Section.

.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.50%	down
NASDQ	+1.12%	down
S&P500	+0.83%	down
Russell2000-	+0.17%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

We made up for most of the previous days losses, but volume wes lower. The trend over the last few months has been weak volume on up days. Long term this in a bearish trend.

• McClellan Index at 17.92 = Neutral.    @+60 or overbought territory & @-60 or oversold. This Oscillator as formed a strong support @ zero (see chart). It held once again yesterday , if we break though you might see it fall all the way toward oversold territory of -60

Earnings season has begun and Intel reports tonight

The long term bul l is trend is firmly in place – Short term markets are just a wee bit overbought.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Proposed schedule (sorry limited time this AM)

• Monday Fearless Weekly Forecast and focus on multiple charts
• Tuesday and Thursday – Stock Watch List
• Wed. & Friday – ETF’s Wacth List
• Any buy of sell will be immediately mentioned.

Bough another 1% of portfolio of IMAX at 12.9. (plan to add more on another dip)

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

“The Other Plot to Wreck America”

We get fear mongered about terrorism 24/7 yet obviously more American  lives within the USA will be directly impacted by everything from cancer to car accidents.

The other plot to wreck America is financial – the Shadow banks and the politicians, investors,lobbyists, and businesses that protect them. NOTHING has been done to to fix it.  We ignore the 9/15 crash (Lehmann Brothers) and it will happen again and again. American’s are being kept blissfully ignorant.

“What we don’t know will hurt us, and quite possibly on a more devastating scale than any Qaeda attack.” This make’s last Sunday’s Frank Rich’s NYT editorial a must read.

Bubble Warning

The Economist, one of the worlds most influencail economic magazine predicts “Markets are too dependent on unsustainable government stimulus [around the world]. Something’s got to give.” Sorry, you have to subscribe to getfull story.

YOUR Comments

Why us? Popeye (see right side of blog) asks the question Helen Thomas did at an Obama/Homeland security conference last week. Why is al Oaeda NOT attacking a hundred other countries? He lists a dozen major countries. Osama Been Forgotten’s old 1998  fatwa lists 3 reasons for his attack

• US troops in Saudi Arabia
• UN sanctions in Iraq were killing children
• US support for Israel

“Privatized War & Its Price”

The Roman empire privatized war before it fell and so too is the USA. The lead editorial in The NYT carries the above headline. We have outsourced war (with YOUR) tax dollars just like American companies outsource jobs. Blackwater and other undersupervised contractors have no code of military ethics and are perhaps the #1 reason we loose the hearts and minds of the countries we occupy. Ironically similar to Avatar.

AVATAR bigger than Titanic

Avatar in 3 D is on its way to shattering Titanic’s box office. $1.34 billion in 4 weeks vs. Titanic’s $1.8 billion.  BUY some IMAX stocks.  Forget waiting for the dip.  Start small and build. With 3d TV on the way, & newly mastered 3d technology IMAX should end up over 100% without some huge stock market or individual  disaster.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.11%	down
NASDQ	+0.74%	down
S&P500	+0.29%	down
Russell2000-	+0.40%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Major US markets rose in the last 1/2 hour of trading.  Why not – 15 of the last 17 Mondays have been up days.  This was, in part, a mad last minute buying of traders to get ahead of “Merger Monday.”  There may not be lots of mergers, but stocks follow patterns and Monday’s have a stellar record over the last 4 months.

The employment numbers for December - 84,000 – below expectations, but stocks rose - Why? – The number is sway better than last January’s - 700,000+ But for stocks the below expectations is more important. A quick jobs recovery is actually and perversely  BAD for stocks.  The reason is the quicker the recovery the sooner the Fed will raise rates.  Right now investors/traders are forced into buying stocks because everything else is at such a low interest rate.

Therefore , Low interest rates are one key to US stocks moving higher.

• McClellan Index at +32.89 = A bit overbought.  The index has moved higher for a week. There is still some wiggle room for US stocks to move even higher before they reach @+60 or overbought territory -  There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or oversold.
  

The McClellan Oscillator is showing less room for upside gain.   However, technically this chart shows a series of 4 higher highs and a solid base at sero – It’s bounced 3 times off this number and is now a short term buying point.

Earnings season starts this week. A (Alcoa reports on Monda)y and at the end of the week some bigger companies.

Fearless Weekly Forecasts -

• From last week “Up at start of week and decline at end.”  I thought the jobs number would be around zero (expectations of market was same) and investors would sell on the news.  We did have a great start and an up week.
• The weaker than expected jobs report (but not too bad) was just what stock bulls want.(see above)  Should be another good week for bulls.  Until the McClellan Oscillator reaches overbought territory bulls rule.

The long term bull is trend is firmly in place, but we are getting close to overbought territory.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Adding a small position in IMAX – Will build this on dips.

More on other stocks tomorrow.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

-

2010 Economic and Stock Forecasts

To make an overall forecast let’s look at the past decade and year & the mega trends So here’s the Good, the Bad, the Ugly Almost all the Bad emanates or is focused on the USA

The UGLY

• Nothing’s Been Fixed – In fact the zombie or shadow financials are less transparent because they were allowed to drop standard mark to market accounting. Too big to fail and the systemic risk of one big institutions failure taking down the whole system sill exists. All the Fed and Obama administration (like Bush) has done is give/loan trillions to troubled financials (include AIG, Fannie & Freddie) at incredibly low rates.
  
• Lethal Combination -  Growing debt and growing weapons production -  Imagine you had a neighbor who owned over 1/2 the weapons in town and he was increasing his weapons budget by up to 20% each year.  Now imagine this same neighbors debt was growing by up to 10% each year and he had some huge additional debts coming due. This neighbor is constantly shouting how afraid he/she is and has shown a willingness to fight. The son of this neighbor is an expert at video games based on mass murder. The neighbor to the rest of the world is, of course, the USA
  
• Reality Check – Like Japan who has lost several decades the USA lost the last decade economically for 98% of the population (all but the richest) Future economics is NOT going to be anything like the past – tighten your belt – Era of cheap oil is over, Era of expanding credit card debt is over, era of endless housing boom is over, era of expanding weapons production is growing, era of expanding federal debt is growing, era of globalization negatively impacting US working class growing, era of disfunctional/partisan hate in USA is growing, and the era of the shrinking working/middle class is growing.

In spite of all these negatives we’re still a functioning democracy whose science, education and business sectors know how to innovate. The problem is the hole we dug over the last decade is not going to get filled in a year or two. Perhaps never.

Tomorrow – Conclusion

Health Care

FEAR MONGER - How to get health care passed -Simply put fear mongering works on Americans.

45,000 people in the USA, according to a Harvard study, die from lack of health care each year.

So let’s take 3000 of their bodies each month (@3000 died on 911 &  12 months times 3000 is only 36,000 and less than 45,000 ) and put them in a bomb filled building. Then put other bodies in a bomb filled remote controlled plane and blow up the building each month.  If the explosion and flying body parts were gruesome enough we’d get great coverage. We’d tell everyone anti health care terrorist piloted the planes. Each month we’d have an event like 911. (See photo above) Shock and awe! – Monthly 911′s

On a more serious note – a great graph by Nate Silver on health care costs and life expectancy by country. Also the size of each  circle represents the # of doctor visits.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.11%	down
NASDQ	+0.01%	down
S&P500	+0.31%	down
Russell2000-	-0.25%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and most major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Most Sections of blog have been revised or are under construction for 2010 See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes

Markets held onto most of Monday’s gains in decreased volume. 15 of the last 17 Mondays have been bullish/up days. This is an established trend shorter term traders may want to take advantage of. Mergers and mutual funds investing are usually listed as reasons Mondays are strong.

• McClellan Index at +27.30 = A bit overbought. This means we have some wiggle room for US stocks to move higher before they reach +60 or overbought territory or a time to lighten up on positions. There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or a time to add to positions.

Trading – Learn from your Mistakes

Avatar/IMAX – Over the last few week I’ve gone overboard about the IMAX 3d technology and the Avatar film. What I did NOT do is invest directly after the open or when IMAX dipped last week. IMAX in a joint venture is coming out with 3D TV channel in 2011 and the film now has grossed over a billion dollars.

• Mistake – Not buying the dip
• Mistake – Understanding that fundamentally (like NVS with the swine flu scare) IMAX is a technology that has reached a tipping point and going to move higher.

Traders – Two other of YOUR choices SEED & HMIN have had major moves and are also worthy of consideration. I will open a minor position in IMAX, or any of above in a dip . Hopefully, build position into a long term investment

Ideally – You’d like to buy when overall US markets are in an oversold position,

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Results for 2009 +35.5% Results for 2008 -13% See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Happy New Year

EWZ (Brazil) – Investors411 #1 holding up +117% this year

This issue of Investors411 is the beginning of a 3 part series on ETF’s, stocks & economic forecasts for 2010. It is designed to educate YOU on how to make the same kind of money others have by following some simple investment strategies that Investors 411 has used for years to beat almost all major US indexes for the last 5 years. But first a word about

Avatar and IMAX

I’ve now seen the movie and it is truly jaw dropping . Some of the genius belongs to Director James Cameron and the rest to the Imax (a publicly traded stock) theater technology. To quote Time magazine "Look around! Embrace the movie – surely the most vivid and persuasive creation of a fantasy world ever seen in the history of moving pictures – as a total sensory, sensuous, sensual experience. " It’s like The Wizard of OZ going from black and white to c o l o r .

The IMAX theater concept is an investment choice suggested by one of you.  Right now the stock (which was on our list of YOUR recommendations) is exploding higher (LINK to chart) in HUGE volume. I’m going to nibble on/invest in the first small dip.  It will be hard to top Avatar, but IMAX is the future of movies & 3D TV is on the way.

2010 Economic and Stock Forecasts

Part 1 Positions

For 2010 Investors 411 is going to keep its focus on basically 4  core positions that it has held, throughout most of the last five years. These are the ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds). An ETF allows you to buy a market basket of stocks or an actual commodity for less than it costs to own a mutual fund and it gives you a better tax break because it trades less (buys/sells different stuff) than most all mutual funds. ETF’s also trade like stocks and have NO hidden fees.

The fundamentals behind the choices of these core positions are simple and  explained in greater depth the OVERVIEW section on the top of blog LINK These mega trends include-

• Globalization – The key force that is allowing some countries to develop faster than others.
• Peak Oil – The world has a limited supply of commodities  and we are running out. As we run out these commodities get more expensive.
• Share the Wealth – Countries that have growing middle classes expand faster that counties that have wealth oligarchies that hoard their money.

Over the years these Investors411 core positions have outperformed almost every major US stock index are-

• EWZ – Brazil
• FXI – China
• GLD – Gold
• EEM – Emerging markets

Especially this year Investors411 held a lot of related positions and some stocks. You can find a list of these at the POSITONS section on the top of the blog LINK (check these out NOW before they change for 2010)

Investors411 did stray too far from its core holding – partly because of the enormous swings in the market this year. Top gainer was EWZ held from the beginning of the year (8% of portfolio total holdings) gained +117% . The biggest loss was a STUPID hedge on China (FXI) position. It was made because of fears about the Swine Flu epidemic seriously impacting China. FXP and ETF that is a double short of basically the FXI. Translation – if Chinese stocks go down FXP goes up @ twice as much.  The short term FXP trade (2.5% of portfolio total) lost -13%

Several NEW position may/will be used in 2010

• MOO – Agriculture based ETF – Will outperform because the huge growing middle classes in especially China & India will eat better. Already opened a position here
• EDC – This is an ETF that does 3 times what emerging markets do. Lots of risk here so it will only be bought or sold under specific conditions involving the McClellan Oscillator (see below & more later)
• ROH & TYM – Technology. Again like EDC these two involve lots of risk because they do 2 and 3 times what tech stocks do. Only to be bought/sold under special circumstances and are short term trades. (see above)
• Commodities – There are many ETF’s that are solely based on a commodity like GLD and not based on a company. Diminishing resources and increased demand for these commodities make for a decent investment.
  
• Stocks – Because YOU asked for it some stock positions like IMAX will be suggested. (see last few Investors411)

Tomorrow Economics – The Good ,The Bad, The Ugly - 2010 Forecast

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.03%	flat
NASDQ	+0.13%	up
S&P500	+0.02%	flat
Russell2000-	+0.04%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Weak volume continues. Most technical analysts consider flat trading (stocks have gone basically nowhere for the last few days) after a trend (upward in this case) a sign  that the trend is revering itself (bearish).  The problem here is it is usually accompanied by strong volume.  All in all THIS IS A BORING WEEK for analysis on stocks. YAWN – Investors are waiting for the monthly employment report at end of next week.

Weekly jobless claims number at 8:30 came in better than expected  Weekly claims fall to lowest since 7/19/2008.

The McClellan Oscillator (see below) has wiggle room on the upside but is slightly overbought.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before "Up to flat week" – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +22.57 This is a slightly  Overbought Position. This chart has recently formed a series of higher highs and higher lows over the last 5+ weeks.  So it looks like there is a possibility of one more swing higher before we get to a clear oversold position (over +60).

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

Resource for ETF’s -MSN Money has 821 ETF’s listed according to performance 1,4,13 weeks 1, 3 5, years on a 20 minute delay for daily prices. LINK

SELLING & BUYING

One of the ETF’s we are going to use in 2010 is EDC – an ETF that does 3 times what emerging markets do.

Still holding onto all of UWM.

When/If McClellan Index gets back above +60 will sell some more.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Starting tomorrow we are going to be going over YOUR choices for stocks . While Investors411 prefers ETF’s may of you are sophisticated traders/investors , so this should be interesting. Today in honor of the worldwide successful open of the Avatar movie ($73 million US box office plus $159 worldwide) let’s offer one of  YOUR choices IMAX – the 3D movie theater chain. (See stock section below)

Over the last week you have sent in 13 stocks – 7 have more than one vote. You have till tomorrow AM to add to list . You can send your choice(s) into the comments section of blog or preferably to my gmail address (see HOMEPAGE at top of blog)

Great Link to the top 15 all time movies according to Adjusted Gross Income – Who is #1? LINK

Dysfunctional Government

Health Care Bill did break Senate Republican Filibuster last night. It passed the Senate

One of you sent in a personal email and wanted break up the health care bill into individual components and pass it that way . About 17 years ago under Hillary/Bill Clinton we tried for major health care reform. None of those major components have since passed congress. In fact, Congress grows increasingly dysfunctional and partisan each day .  The 60 vote filibuster in the Senate used to be used only in rare cases – example in the 60′s to block civil rights legislation. From today’s Paul Krugman NYT editorial LINK quoting political scientist Barbara Sinclare

• 1960s filibuster’s used 8% of time on major legislation
• 1980s filibuster used 27% of the time
• Today Republicans have used Senate filibuster 70% of the time.
• Republicans went so overboard that they held up Defense Department funding till the last minute to block health care.

Our legislators are more divided than ever. Why not? Polarizing politics is a cash cow for both parties(and so called pundents) who have gerrymandered districts so badly that there is no need for compromise. Our democrasy is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.

Show Us the Email

AIG was at one end of the domino chain of Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction (Warren Buffett’s term for Credit Default Swaps) and there is a treasure trove of emails that have not been made public in this company that is now owned 80% by YOU (the government)  Before the trail gets cold  these email should get exposed according to Eliot Spitzer and others who wrote an op-ed LINK

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.20%	up
NASDQ	+1.45%	down
S&P500	+0.58%	down
Russell2000-	+1.05%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar finally leveled off and stocks rose . Volume did increase for all indexes and was above average (except for S&P 500) But Friday was what Wall Street called a “quadruple witching day” (3rd Friday of every month – where options expire) so you get an artificial spike in volume. Volume did NOT confirm the price move.

Some good reports out of RIMM & ORCL helped technology.

Shortened Christmas week.

(Last Week’s) – FEARLESS WEEKLY FORECAST – Up to flat week . NASDQ was up and other 3 major indexes down. No significant move.

FEARLESS FORECAST – Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

IMAX – Chart LINK - Stupid, Stupid, Stupid – You know a movie is going to promote a new technology (3D) and do good to great – This stock ran up 20+% this month before the open of the Avatar movie.  The 3D movie chain’s stock is now over extended now. Like our investment in AMZN & NVS (swine flu) IMAX was a buy the rumor sell the news stock. It went down Friday. Worth watching – a potential buy the dip. Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” is the next big 3D flick.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade& China) . -118 Friday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart)

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.03% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $77.75 . Technically we’ve broken through the 50 day moving average and TWO significant resistance levels = Very Bullish for dollar & bearish for stocks

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +7.10 This is NEUTRAL Position. We have a long way to go till we reach overbought or oversold.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+ =  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Positions section of blog was updated over weekend.  44+% Invested in stocks -

• FXI (China) 18% (selling 6% into any rally – 24- 6=18% – see Friday’s update)
• EWZ (Brazil 16%)
• MOO (agriculture (10)%

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH