Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
April 9, 2010

Facts & Targets

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Those of you who are on the private email list got the news yesterday that YOUR Stock List was up +23.7% since February 10th. (38 trading days) More below under KISS & Stocks. [If you'd like to be on this email list you can find my email under Home/Editor]

bulleye

Targeted

was the headline on the major Left of Center Blog the Huffington Post & a front page story in the WaPo this AM. It referred to the threefold increase in threats to congress. This Intimidation and more was covered yesterday.

Bottom Line – The Intimidators or Bullies are winning because instead of having rational discussion of the facts behind health care, our financial system, economics, jobs, forgotten wars – all we have is the “entertainers” from FOX News encouraging intimidation because it makes money.  The left wing justifiably responding. But lost in all this is the facts and our ability to be civil to each other.

The last 2/3 of this video (Chris Matthew’s – MSNBC) deals with some of the facts rather than the shouting & threats that gets over covered on heath care. Investors411 is going to focus on some of the facts next week like the one below from Congresswomen Debbie Wassermann Schultz. (see video)(photo below from CBS)

Debbie Wasserman Schultz

“No one is going to force you to have health care.”You will be treated differently on your tax form if you do not have health care – just like married/unmarried people, renters/homeowners, kids/no kids etc.


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.27% down
NASDQ +0.23% down
S&P 500 +0.34% down
Russell 2000 +0.03% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Another up day as volume decreases. Tired of telling you historically volume is the #1 confirmation factor behind a price move and this market is therefore acting irrationally.  However that’s the trend, and the trend is your friend.

Our #2 factor -how markets are reacting to news is bullish. Markets seem to be reacting positively to good news and negative news only slightly halts progress.

Earnings week starts next week and Mondays are usually the best day of the week. So expect some short term traders to get long today to cash in on the Monday trend.

Eli Hoffmann picture

Ed Hoffman (photo above) is one of the better editors at Seeking Alphahere’s how he sees Friday and the near term future

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell  to -9.81 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – This is still NEUTRAL territory – technically neither overbought or oversold.
  • US Dollar – basically flat  -0.02% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Dollar closed at $81.54 and the line in the sand resistance level is @ $82.2 Closing above this level and moving higher would be negative for stocks. Mantra -right now The Dollar Rules

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

+23.7% Profit in 38 days

Before we go over these figures and answer there are 3 important points.

  • Caution Don’t let it go to your head. For the most part these stocks were chosen when the US markets were oversold, other reasons, plus we were lucky
  • Many many many thanks to Paul R for this data and contributing lots of stocks on the list
  • Re-read points 1 & 2

The dumbest thing you could do go out any buy on the stocks on this week’s list.  Your Stock List – you send in the stocks – many are fine stocks, but only some get chosen for technical analysis because I do not have the time to go over a list bigger than 10 to 15 stocks.

Question’s answered.

  • No Investors411 is NOT turning into a day or swing traders site. The basic formula of following trends will NOT change. IMAX’s 54.3% gain was the top stock on the list. It following an understandable trend in 3D technology.
  • Yes you can copy or find old copies of the list usually each Tuesday (Wed. this week) by using the calendar at the top of the blog.
  • Yes you can give a copy to your broker or file them in a circular container.
  • I  can’t stress enough to learn something about technical analysis and have a fundamental concept of why your stock will be higher in six months.
  • For a list of stocks Paul used to compute this see comments section on the right hand side.

Because your choices are mostly high beta stocks or those that are growing faster than others certain conditions must exist to put the odds more in YOUR favor.

  • A bull market
  • Oversold conditions – Investors uses the McClellan Oscillator or as Monitor named it the Mickey O. The more oversold the better.
  • In general technically the stock has to be dipping, consolidating, or breaking out. (Its not quite this simple)

Our form of  unregulated capitalism has negatively impacted trends.  These trends are reestablishing themselves. The major technical trend now in US stocks is we went too far to the downside and will probably go too far to the upside.  The cloud and cause over all of this is the lack of regulation. This pattern will repeat itself until fixed.

Individual stocks are riskier and what Investors411 will try to do is to cut down on that risk.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 8, 2010

Intimidation

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Chucky’s Back

Intimidation

Its become obvious – The main thrust of the right wing in the USA is now Intimidation - “You’re either with us or against us.” This week alone the Intimidation has exploded to new levels.

  • Man arrested for “Let The Violence Begin” Death Threat to Senator Patty Murray (D. WA) over her pro health care vote
  • Man arrested for serial death threats to family of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D CA) over health care vote. “The mother links son’s death threat to FOX news
  • Revealed Massey mining disaster CEO Don Blankenship has spent over $6 million against any judges or state legislators who fought for workers protection in his mines. Massive and serious violations and fines not paid at this non union mine.
  • Analysis of influx of violent threats including over 30 governors who received letters that they had “3 day to get out or else” over taxes (sorry there a short ad)
  • Go. of VA announces Confederate history month (not civil war history month) and forgets to mention slavery. Imagine Germany honoring just their soldiers, and storm troopers  in WW 2 and forgetting the holocaust.Gov. later apologized. Analysis Listen to the letter written to Black congressman called N—-r and other names over and over in analysis.
  • Republican Congresswomen Michele Bachmann quote “I want Minnesotans armed and Dangerous.” This is just one of many quotes. She appeared two nights ago with 1/2 term governor Sarah Palin. From last night Rachel Madow show

Montana has a long but enlightening history of the violence within the Republican party in the comments section of the blog. Is this their “Waterloo”? Now the intimidation, bullying and hatred is growing.  Repulicans are condoning it or ignoring it because it adds to their power/money.

Intimidation is unacceptable, it goes beyond the realm of free speech. It should be prosecuted as assault.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.66% up
NASDQ -0.23% up
S&P 500 -0.59% up
Russell 2000 -0.29% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Increased, above average volume and moderate decline for US markets. Normally a big volume moderate decline would raise an eyebrow, but that’s the way this rally has progressed especially in the last month.

Investors411 has gone over all the warning signs, but momentum currently is still with the bulls. The McCellan Oscillator is technically in neutral territory so Investors will not add or subtract from positions now. (except or short term trades)

Seeking Alpha is the #1 recommended sight by YOU on stocks. You folks send me more personal emails on stocks from authors featured at this site than any other. Each morning it is one of the site I skim for news –  Their analysis of yesterday’s fall – a larger than expected decrease in consumer borrowing.

Consumer borrowing is certainly a factor, but it sure looks like the rising dollar (see below) and oil prices is more significant to both stocks and the economy. Mantra – Watch the dollar because it is close to a major resistance level – US stocks will move in the opposite direction. (See past Investors411 and below for reasons the dollar moves)

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell s to -6.84 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – This is still NEUTRAL territory – technically neither overbought or oversold.
  • US Dollar – rose  +0.27% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] +o.53 over two days. and over 1% for three days.  The dollar over the last 3 days had a significant impact on why stocks fell yesterday. We are moving close to resistance/breakout level

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

EWZ (Brazil) Over the years the ETF’s for Brazil, China and Emerging Markets have been Investors411′s #1 investment choice. Although diminished (Down from 25% to 10%) EWZ is still #1. See OVERVIEW section of blog for more. Brazil:

  • Benefits from a huge amount of natural resources.
  • In 2000 a left wing government took over and spread the wealth so more working class people spent money. Money flowed so the economy grew. It does not have to be a “left” wing government to have greater success what you have to see is a spread of wealth/power from an oligarchy to working people who spend the cash. (there are other factors involved – but time limits explanation.)
  • Brazil is less impacted by “shadow financials”
  • Brazil has an election in late 2008 and term limits mean they will have a new President – This creates uncertainty and is a negative.
  • More in depth economic analysis
  • We have to be careful because Brail is going to outperform on the way up and down.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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