Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
July 15, 2012

Recession/Deficit Solutions

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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The Greatest Economists of the 20th Century

Agreed that you Stimulate Your way Out of a

Recession

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Solutions to The Deficit

Stimulus or Austerity

(Part 1)

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The  Outstanding Success of

The Obama Stimulus

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Why Stimulus Works

&

Austerity Doesn’t

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The Obama Stimulus cost $787 billion.

Our national debt is @ $15 trillion.

A 5.2% one time addition to our debt.

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Under Obama & his Stimulus

Job growth went from -800,000 to +300,000

GDP went from -8.9% to +3.9%. = +12.8%

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Millions of jobs

created millions of taxpayers

& the GDP expanded.

Taxes paid by those with jobs

REDUCE the deficit

year after year after year…

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Everything was working until

*The Stimulus ran out

*The Austerity/Banksta Republicans

won the House of Representatives

&

*Obama, himself, put more focus on

austerity instead of stimulus

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Republican blocked virtually every

stimulus/jobs growth plan.

&

Had to be dragged kicking and screaming

for even a payroll tax cut

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********************

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Let’s see what happens to

the deficit

when Banksta/austerity

gain even more control.

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Examples – Austerity as a Solution

The European countries in economic trouble.

Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, & Spain

.’

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Ireland’s “free market” economy was

the goal of every Banksta in America.

The Baking Industry had “captured government”

Regulators were no where to be found.

Then Something Hit the Fan

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Ireland was the first country to impose

The Austerity Solution

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The Deficit

Exploded Higher

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Ireland Government Debt To GDP

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Ireland’s unemployment rate exploded

from 4.6% in 2008 to 14.3% today

..

IRELAND with Austerity

A 311% INCREASE in Unemployment

A 433% INCREASE in Debt to GDP

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In Hard Economic Times

Austerity = More Debt

..

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More Examples

The Other 4 Troubled European Countries

who have adopted the austerity solution.

All have

Debt to GDP ratios that are still exploding higher

All  have unemployment still exploding higher

For data on these countries see this LINK

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Next Blog – Common Sense works, Regulated Banking works, When Austerity works, Those plutocrats that don’t give a damn, but say they do – More Solutions.

FINIS


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November 17, 2010

Just Stocks

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow 1.59% up
NASDQ -1.75% up
S&P -1.62% up
Russell 2000 -2.03% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

One way to quickly skim what’s happening is to count the Bearish, Neutral & Bullish signals in Investors411. These are short term trend indicators. If all capitals are used BEARISH or BULLISH put far more emphasis on that forecasting tool. Reading The Tea Leaves will give a daily overview.

US Stock Markets -

Major meltdown in increased above average volume. Not OMG volume but a bit above average. = Bearish

Interday Markets fell in the AM and stayed flat through out the PM = Could be forming a base or support line = weak Bullish

All major US indexes almost directly above a significant support level – Their 50 day moving averages = Bullish

The CRB is the basic index for all commodity futures. The USO (oil XTF – since it is an ETF it shows volume) is only one commodity. Both took huge hits yesterday. As mentioned on Monday a minor (relative to housing/shadow bank 2008 meltdown) bubble looks to  be bursting. = BEARISH

Another negative is the focus of investors Ireland looks like it faces same problem as Greece. = Bearish

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose another  significant amount  +0.88% yesterday. It took out another resistance level like a knife through butter For stocks = BEARISH
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  another  -1.86% yesterday. Major support recently broken and BDI keeps falling at 2+% each day = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell dramatically and are in oversold territory  = Bullish
  • 10 Year Treasury Bond (TNX) [Bonds compete with stocks for Investors. Rising TNX also signals inflation. Rising yields bad for stocks] After breakout two days ago fell -2.20% back to its support level = Neutral/Bearish

Reading The Tea Leaves -

There are still too many bearish signals out there to to balance the fact that we are approaching the 50 day moving/support level average for the major US stock indexes. The MO is clearly in oversold territory at -86.89 but has fallen beyond -130 ONLY twice in the last three years

There’s a shot because of the low MO and support levels for the major indexes is in front of us that bulls could make a stand. The problem is that just about everyone else who I skim for analysis is full of doom and gloom.  In fact, more are starting to talk about a double dip recession.

Bears are approaching the 50 day moving average with HUGE momentum so the Long Term Outlook was changed to NEUTRAL

The Wild Card is the High Frequency Traders that dominate the stock market (50 to 80% of trades) I get the feeling they are “pumping and dumping” HFT and other entities push or pump panic traders/investors in one direction then when it reaches a fever pitch go/dump in the other.

So being totally out of the markets, I think there a chance to nibble on another big dip. At a -120 MO I’d take a bite.

Additional reasoning -The rising dollar is playing a major role in falling stocks. The USD is trading above its top Bollinger Band. Translation its gone up too far too fast. So if the tracking ETF for the dollar the UUP goes up  and stock dip this AM, I’ll BUY

This trade will evaporate if we go sideways for a few days. But at least a snap back counter trend rally is very possible right now.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)..

Investors411 has No long positions at this time. Even our YOUR Stock List is under construction.

Traders. Potential for a buy the dip trade exists today.(see above) Would use riskier TYH (3X techs) & EDC (3X Emerging Markets) rather than less leveraged ROM (2x techs) & UWM (2X small caps) to start. Reasoning – I’ll take a quick 3 to 5% profit on 1/2 and let the rest ride. The more leverage the quicker you get to the profit/stop loss

Investors. -87 on the MO is mighty tempting. I do think there is more downside to come. If you can take the high risk  EEM or one of the various other specific emerging market countries is what I’d choose. You’d love another  Dow down 100+ points before nibbling.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term OutlookNEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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February 5, 2010

Wanting Obama to Fail

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

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Wanting Obama & America to Fail

I may criticize Obama and before him Bush, but I never wanted them to fail. Our politicians have gotten so partisan that Obama’s failure has become far more important than solving problems that confront our country and the world.

Richard Shelby (Powerful Republican Senate finance committee minority leader) – has held up 70 Obama appointments because he wants “earmarks” (special compensation) for his state of Alabama. The Huffington Post  labeled him Mr. Roadblock after Shelby held up the nomination for chief of the General Services Office for 10 Months . She passed 96 to 0 . Additional story here . Buying votes has overwhelmed US politics. But this case was just way too blatent.

PIGS

- World Market’s stocks plunged in an aftershock of the financial earthquake that hit last Oct. 2008. In 2008 it was the huge shadow banks that stood on the brink of collapse from over leveraged debt bombs called Credit Default Swaps.  Iceland’s economy is still shattered because it took on too much OVER LEVERAGED debt.

P ortugal, I reland, G reece, and S pain are now in trouble. You can add Great Britain and all the former Soviet satellite countries.  They bought into the unregulated free market capitalism and now like financials are suffering.  They are selling their debt at much higher prices than we are.  Are other countries going to fall like Iceland?- Bill Gross (big bond seller) editorial

Here’s the problem nobody knows how bad or over leveraged things exactly are because there was little regulation.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.61% up
NASDQ -2.99% up
S&P500 -3.11% up
Russell2000- -3.44% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Worldwide stocks dropped in big, above average volume on fears of a credit meltdown in Europe. (See above) This, added to China and some other emerging markets pulling back on stimulus has driven all major indexes to yearly lows = Bearish

Jobs number Headlines -20,000 job losses in January (about what was expected) 9.7% Unemployment rate . Don’t understand how they got this number – down -0.3 % and not seeing job creation).  Seems implausible. They did a yearly revaluation. Basically this is good news for stocks .

Significant indexes

  • McClellan Index fell to -70.88 = Oversold. How low or oversold can markets get before rebounding. We did reach @-93 about 3 days ago, about @-115 last November & @ -130 back in the fall of 2008.
  • BDI – This chart shows the Baltic Dry Index (scroll down) , a measure of shipping costs, Has broken through a major month long  support level at @ 3000 .  Yesterday the BDI rose +12 at 2685.

Analysis Oversold conditions means we are closer to a buy than a sell. Two major questions.

  • Is this correction going to grow? Technically the answer seems to be yes . The charts are showing now 4 major down days in big volume. We are at yearly lows and the McClellan Oscillator is at -71. 3 trading days ago we hit -93 and the markets were at a higher low. All this is Bearish but oversold markets are when to buy.
  • How to play the dip When everyone else sells you buy. The bigger the dip the better your chances. Of course this works best for a short term trader, who is willing to buy the dip and sell a few days/week later.  The more a longer term investor is in cash- the more its time to nibble.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends – will try to update last few weeks today) – These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Here’s stocks YOU suggested  to add to the Watch List. – Will try to analyze stocks over weekend.
GS, JPM, CSCO, SHOO, ICON, SOA, ALF, VSEC, BIDU VPRT

ETF’s -  6% of portfolio FXI (China), 5% EWZ (Brazil), & 10% MOO (Agriculture) -  Total 21% invested. Sold 1/2 position or 5% of portfolio of EWZ yesterday at $65.1 . This was bought at $52.8 back in July. A +23% gain

I will be adding to positions (hopefully long term) today, hopefully in a dip.

The strategy Buy a position in an oversold market and sell 1/2 of it when it gains 5 to 10% and let the rest ride.  The position should take into account major trends that you understand. For me China, Emerging Markets and Brazil still fit the bill. However there are concerns about a long term US/China trade war. Also any of the ETF’s that do 2 & 3 X what the major US indexes do.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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