The dollar war is certainly reason to exercise some caution. I have a stop on the more speculative SSO at what I bought it for.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

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The Dying Democracy –  We the People

• Tea Party just got $1,000,000 from an anonymous donor
• The hidden money “stampeding” in elections from Time magazine (Thanks to Ewanapat for this reference)
• Fox News $1,000,000 contribution to Republicans
• Recent Supreme Court decision that opened the door for Corporations and other entities to unlimitedly fund propaganda against any political candidate.

Do you really believe your measly one vote and restricted financial contribution has the power of a $1,000,000 dollar anonymous contribution in an election?

Wake up and smell the coffee!

• Obama caved in to the Insurance monopoly on health care because they give fat checks
• McCain has gone mute on campaign finance reform because this oligarchy is behind him
• Islamophobia is flourishing because the weapons industry’s has massive financial contribution power .

In Alaska and Delaware massive amounts of money came into tea party candidates and they came from 20 to 30 % down in polls in 6 weeks to beat the establishment Republican candidates with a blizzard of negative adds. In Alaska the known amount of $ that came in (almost all from outside the state) was over $600,000 or $more than $10 a vote. This does not count all those anonymous negative adds.

This blog will continue to be The Resistance for those who want to terminate American democracy. Yes, I’ll send in my limited transparent contribution, speak out for we the people, and vote.

Mega trend - vanishing middle/working class in America. Growing working/middle class in emerging markets. Loss of democratic values.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term of the Day – Overextended - This is when a stock, sector or index goes up too far too fast, in usually increased volume, It simply runs out of buyers and has to consolidate. There are many ways to measure this. Investors411, for bullish stocks. uses the distance a stock is from its 50 Day Moving Average (blue line on charts)

Simply by looking at one of the many charts referenced in Investors411 you can see how far away (space between) the 50 Day Moving Average is from the price. The more volume there is adds to its over extension – more buyers piling in.  You would be chasing a winner and it is better to wait for some sort of pull back or consolidation to invest.

US Markets

Again thanks to Paul R for analysis of YOUR Stock LIst.  14.4% gains! Will try to put together another stock list after earnings season has matured. (earnings can radically alter the price of stocks) Look for Paul’s in Comments section of blog.

Fed continues to print and inject $ in to the economy – $2 billion yesterday. Just what are the banks doing with this $? Who knows? We have a less than transparent financial system. Bottom Line here is the worry about deflation. Fed sure looking like it wants to push dollar lower.

“Stocks won’t crash unless earnings do” from Seeking Alpha author. Fed, sure looks like its manipulating to get a good earning season from globalized US firms.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell significant  -0.76% yesterday breaking a major support level = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell  -2.97% yesterday. 8th down day in a row. After 8 week bull run trend seems to be changing to = Bearish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell  to +3.87 yesterday. Trend is bearish Location of index as far as buying/selling or overbought/oversold = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Something’s big is happening. The dollar and stocks for three months have had almost a 90% inverse correlation. The dollar drops, US goods (exports) cost less abroad and therefore profits rise, and stocks rise. The dollar, falling almost 2% in two days & breaking a support level should have had stocks exploding higher. It didn’t.

A weak dollar also shows a fear of weakens in the American economy relative to others.

Currency trading is a huge market, that every major entity tries to manipulate. However because of its size its hard to manipulate for long in an open market. The Chinese (and some others) basically have a closed market on their currency.

Bottom Line - When a long term pattern breaks down it almost always means change of some type. Fundamentally,lower dollar = higher profits for US exporters is going to help globalized companies, but now the soundness of the American economy is also being questioned.  This is Bearish

The MO – In tech speak this chart has broken down from what’s called a “head and shoulders” trading pattern, Usually means there is more downside risk & area around -20 on MO is now a new support level.

Bottom Line - Gold is historically a hedge against a falling dollar, The dollar melting rapidly through support levels also shows perceived strength in Emerging Markets economies,

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions -

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity)- fall of dollar negatively impacting this.
• SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I have a 2% trailing stop on this trade

Because of falling dollar looking to add to long term holding in emerging markets (see POSITION section of blog) Only caution is do NOT chase stocks that are too over extended from 5oDMA  Would like to see MO reach @-20 before nibbling.

Biggest mistake Investors411 has made this year was talking about but not buying GLD (ETF for gold) earlier this year.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Demonstration in world’s largest Islamic democracy/country Indonesia where they allow Christian, Buddhist and many other religious faiths to openly pratice. They also have a woman president & a stock market at a new high.

Burn the Koran?

Another  direct follow up to the fear mongering surrounding the Islamic Center in NYC is a pastor in Florida who is going to burn Korans on 9/11 – “It’s International Burn a Koran Day .” General Petraeus from BBC – “This act will endanger US troop.” It will also be  a recruitment mana (gift) from heaven for any Islamic radical that will be broadcast all over the world.

The trend is the growing use of fear mongering on an Islamophobic US public in political seasons. Far right politicians have pushed this issue from Palin to Beck and even some notable Democrats like Harry Reid. Obviously, this trend also benefits those that manufacture weapons

Globalization* & US Education

Why is American education falling or even failing relative to the rest of the world?

Capitalist want to make money. To make that money they needed an increasing educated/smarter workforce to solve problems and deal with technological innovation. Up to, say 1980, that workforce came from US education which major American companies supported.

Now, because of globalization, global American companies no longer have to invest in US education. They simply use use the cheaper educational workforce abroad. “They don’t even have to invest a penny.”

In fact, over the last three decades American capitalists have developed their own think tanks to directly challenge American universities and education system  like American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation.  For more James Kwak at the the Baseline Senerio

* Globalization is one of the key mega trends dominating the world economically. For more click on OVERVIEW at top of blog

Simply put, an Investors411 mantra and Kwak conclusion – “it is the interests of big corporations that determine government policy in the United States.”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Its natural for volume to rise after Labor Day weekend.

Housing problem has deeply worried many economists. It’s also become a political football two months before the election.  Back in 2008, Investors411′ mantra was & still is the financial meltdown has caused problems “far, far, far, far, far” worse that predicted.

The NASDQ has “gapped” higher 2 of the last 4 trading days at the open. 3 gap higher almost alway means markets are too overbought to continue the move.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, of course, fell  a -0.54% Friday.  Threatens to break down through support levels of three week long consolidation pattern. = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.45% Friday. A 5 week rally the BDI had flattened out. Now starting to rise again. = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +48.06 Friday Momentum obviously with bulls, but we are reaching overbought territory. The MO did spend one day above +9o in late July, but over the last year  the other 4 highs were from + 60 to +80. Therefore running out of room for stocks to move higher = Neutral/Bearish

Reading Tea Leaves

Emerging Markets are on a roll (see POSITIONS Section of blog for corresponding ETF’s) Almost all are relatively outperforming US indexes EWS (Singapore is almost at new yearly high, IFN (India),TUR (Turkey, & EIOD (Indonesia did close at highs. The BDI’s rally is confirmation or a forecast of the positive fundamental growth story of these countries.

US Sock Indexes are being driven higher by a weaker dollar which could break down through its support level today. But we are running out of upside “wiggle room” and almost overbought. There’s only 12 points between current MO at +48 and over bought conditions are +60.

Therefore its time to start thinking about taking profits on long positions in a major rally.  If/when we reach +60 or +80 I will be using the short ETF’s in a rally. (See POSITIONS section at top of blog for more)

Fundamental overview of world Economy.

The obvious sub trend brought about by globalization is the economic deterioration of the US & Europe economically  vs the economic rise of emerging markets and energy rich countries (peak oil mega trend – see Overview section of blog).

Will the emerging markets grow fast enough to pull the USA & Europe out of the Great Recession?

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

We are coming closer to the time to take profits or consider short ETF’s

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Photo of stabbed NYC Muslim Cabbie.

Mother of All Traffic Jams

Just How fast is China growing? Just how much does China need more infrastructure? – Now a nine day 60 mile long traffic jam outside the capital - Video

US Islamophobia Grows

Allegedly drunk NYC guy cuts throat of cabbie after he responded yes to question –  Are you a Muslim? He’s being charged with hate crime Story

Pop Quiz

I’ll buy dinner to anyone over 40 who gets this right and hasn’t seen the list. It says a lot about where our country is headed. Here’s a  List of the top 50 social media sites on the web. Can you guess who/what is #1? Nasty Hint Obama is #3

Bruce Lee Plays Ping Pong

Phenomenal add run on China TV by Nokia. You’re not going to believe this (Thanks to AG for the find) It takes @ 15 seconds till the OMG part.- VIDEO

Housing & Wealth Creation

Fabulous article by James Kwak at Baselne Senerio. Own a Home or thinking of buying one? You must check out the article and graph

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades.

The Symphony

Because the High Frequency Traders (HFT’s) use their Black Box algorithms to trade across markets there is a  phenomenally higher degree of correlation between stocks, currencies, commodities (especially oil) and other markets. One inverse correlation has become very crucial in this symphony. That’s the inverse relationship between the dollar and US markets. This is why the US dollar is one of the Indexes followed by Investors411.

Yesterday’s Stock Markets

Even the market cheerleaders on the main financial channel CNBC seem to be growling bears about US & therefore world stocks.

A typical rally day in deceased volume. Because of the BB/HFT’s volume is no longer the #1 forecast tool of major indexes.

We again had absolutely horrible housing news that was worse than expected, yet oversold markets rallied.  How markets react to news is a good indicator of the near term future. For now really bad news is built into stock prices.

Today we will have another bad weekly unemployment report. Since we’re still close to oversold on the MO it will probably take some really bad figures to toast stocks.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD)  [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar was flat (up a smidge) for third day in a row, +0.14% yesterday.  Two week rally in place. Now facing resistance at 50DMA. Three flat days in a row could signal a reversal of trend & the dollar start to drop. But until this happens, for stocks outlook = Bearish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell -3.08% yesterday. First fall in a 5+ week long rally. Long rallies are typical in the BDI. This could be a reversal of trend and bad for emerging markets. If BDI fall increases today the outlook will change to bearish = Neutral
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to -48.98 Slipped out of, but is still close to oversold territory = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The massive currency/Dollar market is still key to stocks. Fundamentally, parts of Europe are so bad off its hard to see the dollar not rise in relation to the Euro and therefore probably move higher in relationship to all currencies. UUP the dollar ETF is still what to watch.  It goes one way and stocks will go the other.

Yesterday was probably NOT the near term low for US equities. But remember rallies start from oversold bounces. The last oversold bounce saw a 3 day rally, the two before that 3 week rallies. Of course, everything could get shattered if the dollar soars or we have a really really bad weekly employment number.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - Small positions in EWS (Singapore) USO (commodity-Oil) & slightly larger in TYH

Traders – Bought TYH at 24.68 & sold 1/2 for +3% gain at 25.50 (10% of portfolio position now 5%) Stop set at 24.43 and will move it higher in a rally. Reasoning behind trade – MO oversold. Big dip at open & double bottom formed. The dollar was flat so I pulled the trigger.

Investors – Any time the MO closes below (if you willing to take more risk – close to) -60 and the markets dip further is a chance to purchase one of the long emerging market of energy rich country ETF’s. See List in Positions. It’s safer to do this if the MO is below -80 and still safer if it goes beyond -100

Long Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!