Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
April 27, 2012

The Primal Scream

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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History will Repeat Itself

Unless we learn from it

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Austerity in a weak Economy

is Devastating-

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Japan

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Almost two decades ago Japan’s rising economy was the envy of the world

Then, they went into recession and introduced austerity measures.

The end result was a stagnant Japanese economy with a Debt to GDP ratio of well over 200%

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Yale’ Economist

Robert Schiller

(pg. 84 Money magazine)

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“Fiscal austerity to reduce debt can backfire -as has been the case in debt laden Japan.”

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Aside – How does Japan manage an ugly Debt to GDP ratio well over twice ours? Low Low Low Treasury bond rates.  We do the same with our Low Rates. Their rate for the 10 year bond is under 1%, ours under 2%

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England Hits Recession

Another Austerity Mistake

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Headline Daily Mail

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“The first double dip for 37 years…

Britain endures

longest downturn for a century”

..

Now besides Europe waking up to the fact,  austerity doesn’t work we have England as the latest example.

Even countries like Spain and Ireland who had budget surpluses before the 2008 meltdown are now in deep trouble after introducing austerity measures. (See STOCK Section below on downgrade of Spanish bonds)

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The Primal Scream


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Investors411 is just one small blog

that’s been right about

this again and again and again

..

“Of course we must eventually deal with the deficit.  But the example of Britain and Europe show that austerity in the midst of a jobs crisis is a form of insanity.

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It ultimately makes deficits worse and leads to economic stagnation and double dip recessions.”

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Quote from Must Read

Editorial

by John Atcheson

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“Splitting the Difference Between Myth

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and Reality Is Not Good Economics

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Told You So -

The UK’s Double Dip Recession and Ours”


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STOCKS

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  • Spanish Bonds rose SIGNIFICANTLY this AM near 6.00% danger zone. Rate at at 5.96% at 6:45 AM EDT Latest update on Spanish bond rates for traders HERE
  • Despite austerity Program in Spain Spanish Bonds were downgraded two levels Story Here
  • Two trends – Bad news – US economy keeps deteriorating at a slight rate. Good News - Earnings report are outstanding for US companies.

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Reading Tea Leaves

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Simply Put – The massive gains in stocks over the last three years is NOT trickling down into the US economy in a Significant way. The rich are getting richer as working middle class Americans stagnate.

Any stock move significantly higher is predicated on the Fed continuing some kind of liquidity dump. The latest liquidity injection “Operation Twist” ends in June.

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Your Stock List

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Today’s the last day to submit your favorite stocks

to be on YOUR stock List starting May 1st.

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List your choices in the comments section

or email them to me.

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Spanish Bond over 6% = Change to NEUTRAL

These bonds are now back below 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Getting Shaky again

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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November 23, 2011

Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

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“Danger Will Robinson

Danger Danger”


Robot from old TV Series – Lost in Space

Europe


The first thing in the morning almost every stock analyst looks at is European Markets. Why? – If European markets are 2% lower then US equities open 2% lower.

The major problem is there is no viable solution apparent for the European debt crisis. One day there is going to be a panic about the solvency of  a major European bank and the European markets will be down 5% and falling. The US will do the same.


BAC


Bank of America our largest too big to fail is in deep trouble.  No one really knows how exposed BAC or any too big to fail institution is to bad debt in the USA or Europe because US banks don’t have mark to market accounting and the derivative market is opaque.

How bad is BAC? It hit a three year closing low yesterday. 6 month chart, 3 year chart.

BAC is the worst off of all the major shadow banks and the anchor that is leading the others down.

When a major bank/stock  market meltdown occurs is impossible to predict. – today, next month, next year. Until there is a viable European solution every stock is at risk. Especially financials. Therefore …


It’s time to take out the old Lost In Space Robot that warns of impending danger and shout -


“Danger Will Robinson, Danger Danger.”

Yes this debt crisis is, as Yogi Berra would say, 2008 all over again.


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News Briefs

Russia – What Russian New anchor thinks of Obama. 12 Second video (fun)

Art History & Pepper Spray – A photo essay including nude paintings (fun) Thanks to RF for the heads up on this.


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Happy Thanksgiving

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STOCKS

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The Stock Market Skater on Thin Ice/Shark Below


Yesterday US equities fell slightly. This confirmed the significant downside move Monday. If you look at a chart of the S&P 500 (See FINANCIAL CHARTS on right side of blog) you will notice the current meltdown is starting out almost exactly like the early August meltdown.

Ron Hera – Seeking Alpha contributor – The gap between the haves and have nots in the USA is growing so fast that  by 2032 the USA will be a third world country. How Quickly the USA is Becoming A Third World Country

Japanese markets were down 2.1% overnight. China overtook Japan as the world’s # 2 economy. EWJ chart (the ETF for Japan) is bearish. Few care about Japan and all eyes are on the largest economic block Europe.

Fed sets Stress Test for Big US banks becuse of European Crisis. Financial Times Story

Germany’s DAX down -0.07 at 8:45 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to -77.24. 50DMA at +16.68 = Bullish

While we did see a record -140 on the MO in August, a -77 with the 50 DMA at +17 means the market is ripe, technically, for some sort of rebound.

Same Bottom LineNews from Europe can and will trump the technically bullish oversold US market.

Technicals give us some short term hope, but then there’s the European Sword of Damocles. See yesterday’s Investors411

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Hedge Trades

This is NOT an event driven hedge trade like GMCR or ANF.

  • Longer Term a Call on AAPL and a Put on AMZN. Expiration dates of Put and Call should be similar and at/near value of current price.
  • You can also go long AAPL and short AMZN

Reasoning

  • It’s very hard to make an investment in an events driven market. You have little idea which way stocks will turn. (See above)
  • Technically APPL’s chart is much better than AMZN. The later seems to be free fall.
  • Exit strategy – Exit 1/2 the trade with  5+% gain. Let the rest ride.  5% loss is downside exit.  Larger profits if you are doing puts and calls.

Puts and calls are preferable because you risk a set amount of $.


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Paul’s Corner

Mea Culpa

Yesterday in Paul’s Corner we discussed Ian Woodward’s newest market indicator, “%B X Bandwidth“. This indicator created about a month ago by Ian Woodward (HGSI) is a very good indicator that can get you into and out of the market several days before feast or famine.

In yesterday’s post I suggested that since this was a new indicator it doesn’t have too much history but appears to be a real silver bullet in the market analysis tool kit. Well my good friend Ian Woodward was nice enough to call to my attention (while wielding a 2X4) that while it’s a new indicator, we have  oodles of history available using HGSI and EdgeRater software to generate several years of spread sheet  which shows the validity of “%B X Bandwidth”.

For your review here are the images Ian created for Investors411:

May 5, 2010 Flash Crash – LINK

Sept. 1, 2010 New Rally – LINK

March 2009 Bull Run Start - LINK

July 15, 2009 Continuation    - LINK

Many thanks to Ian for providing these images! Have a great Thanksgiving folks and after the festivities take a few minutes and review Ian’s blog and study “%B X Bandwidth” a bit more.

Ian’s Blog LINK


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Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.

EUO (double short the Euro currency)   1/2 position Bought at 18.60 Friday, EUO closed yesterday at  18.72


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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

We’ve had two major down days in the last two weeks, both were confirmed by a flat or lower stock market the next day. Therefore the Long term outlook is in dange of a downgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH.


NEUTRAL


Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.


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August 9, 2011

Panic on The Street

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

  • What was the world’s largest bank sank 20.32% yesterday. The financial sector 8.95% and the stock market had a top ten bad day. Logic looks for an oversold bounce in stocks today. But you have to wonder if its going to be a dead cat bounce. Remember we NEVER fixed the problem in the shadow banking sector and now banks are even way bigger than before (too big to fail)

Standard & Poor's

  • Standard and Poor downgraded the USA’s bond rating. Investors bought both US bonds and the dollar (see below) in defiance of the downgrade.
  • The stock market went into meltdown for two reasons.  High Frequency Traders (see below) and the realization that austerity measures (contracting the money supply endorsed by the right wing) instead of producing more jobs would hurt the economy and stocks.

  • Syria continues a brutal crackdown on democracy demonstrators. It’s been condemned by the Arab League, USA and many others. Latest

Bottom Line – The USA is going to to use austerity instead of trying to grow out way out of economic crisis. Like Herbert Hoover we are going to leave the supposed “free markets” untouched.  The fears of the end result has been demonstrated by the fall in stock prices since the manufactured budget crisis passed.

NB - This was sent in by RF and its fun Aug. 8th Borowitz Report

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -5.55% up
NASDQ -6.90% up
S&P 500 -6.66% up
Russell 2000 -8.91% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Every technical measure out there says we are in a climax sell off. Volume exploding as markets sink.
  • What stocks need is a fundamental catalyst, to give potential investors hope. The Fed is the strongest entity out there to halt the slide. But something like QE#3 may soon become too little too late.
  • This market is dominated by High Frequency Traders, that are pumping and dumping stocks in micro seconds. Jim Cramer opened his CNBC show with commentary on this. Here’s a video link

Cramer like anyone who is a traditional value and/or technical investor  realizes that the game is now rigged against you by HFT’s. – Why play when the deck is stacked.

  • There is nothing you can do about this because the government for years  has blessed this as “free market” trading.  It has totally shattered real investing. It completely obliterates the kind of analysis that Cramer and technicians use.
  • How does your understaffed, under paid government do anything about HFT’s? All the far right and many Democrats want to do is cut all regulations and regulators.
  • For Traders - Fast Money (CNBC – 5 to 6 PM EST) show was listing examples of trades that happened yesterday where stocks dropped up to 10% in micro seconds. Then recovered in microseconds. This blows out a stop/sell order and makes a mockery of day and swing trading.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to to -142.58 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold). This is the lowest the MO has ever been. = Bullish
  • $USD The Dollar rose again +0.36% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Technically we have moved higher for two weeks. Absolutely no impact from the S&P downgrade on the dollar. Overall = Neutral
  • $TNX – The benchmark 10 year treasury bond actually went down in yield -8.59%
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Neither the massive bond or currency markets reacted negatively to the S&P downgrade. In fact they moved in the opposite direction as people bought both bonds and the dollar. Logic would say that the algorithms that the HFT’s use would recognize massively oversold markets and rally today. But what happens next is up to the HFT’s because most of what used to be your typical investors have left the building.

Today – Oversold markets bounce back, but is it another dead cat?

  • Never Forget its is High Frequency Traders (This group is made up of high net worth individuals and entities) that now account for the vast majority of trading and manipulate trading

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The recent Washington debt crisis debacle has focused everyone on cutting the money supply.  Simple math – The less money that’s out there = less jobs = greater chance the “Great Recession” returns. European debt and emerging market’s inflation fears add to this.
  • Long Term Outlook Listed Below.

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Paul’s Corner

Well well well, to sum up this market I give you the latest E-Trade ad:

LINK:

Taking a look at Ian Woodward’s newest tool, %B for market evaluation, we find a very over sold market. Just how bad has the market dropped? Take a look at where the stocks in the S&P 1500 are in relation to their Bollinger Band:

LINK:

The bar graph shows  92% of the stocks in the S&P 1500 are below the bottom of their Bollinger Band and the “Pie Chart” on the right shows 100% of the stocks are below the middle of their Bollinger Band. That’s really over sold and shows you how much damage has been done.  See Ian’s latest blog for %B discussion:

LINK:

The HGSI software is probably the best software  searching and ranking stocks.  You can create your own searches but if you are lazy it comes with searches from Charles Kirkpatrick,  Larry Conners,   Morales & Karcher (Pocket Pivots) and Woodward and Brown.

Woodward and Brown has one search that I check every evening and gives you an instant snap shot of the day, it’s called “Best of Woodward and Brown”. This search gives you the top 10 stocks found on all of the Woodward and Brown searches from the day.

Here are the top stocks found on a  nasty day:  AKRX, BVN, EFSC, EXLS, MFN, NGD, QCOR, GOLD, RIC, AUY As you can see it was a flight to gold and a few Parma thrown in.

At 7 AM this morning we find futures sharply up so it appears the carnage is over….sure…..I’ll wait a few days before I venture back out onto the dance floor.

So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up, is this a new morning in America or just another lousy craft show? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim, here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a mistake to sell and take profits. Every thing is way too volatile to buy now

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY. I have placed puts on all of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

Expect a bounce higher today

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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May 26, 2011

YOUR Comments

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Mark Haines

Mark Haines

YOUR Comments

Once again YOUR Comments is perhaps the most interesting/informative part of the Investors blog. Everything from investment concepts to political editorials/trends is covered there.

Of special note is a tribute to a tribute to legendary financial reporter Mark Haines who died yesterday started by JS

Link Here (scroll down to read comments)

Today’s from comments has another editorial from Yankee Bob.

Never in my wildest dreams could I envision a Party that is as anti-American as the GOP is They have served themselves up for sacrifice IF AND ONLY IF THE DEMS CAN ACT AT LEAST A LITTLE LIKE THE PARTY OF FDR ….

1. Raising taxes. They won’t raise taxes on the rich or corporations but they WILL raise taxes on services they hate like Abortions Why can’t we have a minimim corporate tax that they can’t squirm out of or why can’t you tax corporate profits earned in the US. You want to declare yourself as owned offshore,..fine. But why can’t your US revenue be taxed here except  that the GOP will be against it.

2.  They are against gov regulation. Disaster in the Gulf. Disaster in Massey Mines. Disaster on Wall St. That’s what less regulation gets you.Their willfull desire for less regulation brings death from food pathogens

3. They are actually clamoring for lifting rerictions on child labor. It’s astonishing. What would that be for except to lower wages.

4. they are against ending the Wars.The Wars that waste trillions of dollars with absolutely NOTHING to show for it. Iraq is still a mess,and Afghanistan is still little changed. If those trillions had been spent on Domestic Infrastructure, then we would  have low  unemployment and a booming economy and good roads,bridges, dams,schools,parks mass transit . The money was spent on GOP wars. We have nothing to show for it but a bloated deficit and a bad economy.

It doesn’t have to be that way but,the GOP demands it. The same money spent on domestic infrastructure,education,transportation  alternative energy projects, and healthcare would have transformed the us into a vibrant dynamo. Couple that with increased tax on the wealthy and making corporations actually pay their share, reducing the defense budget would balance the budget.

Do you realize that the Defense spending has doubled since the fall of the Soviet Union? What a waste! Do you feel safer. Any nut with a pack of matches can burn most of the West but we spend billions on anti-terrorism. On What. Air cargo is still not inspected. Incoming cargo in our ports is scarcely looked at. If the terrorists are so plentiful and represent such a grave threat,…then they certainly haven’t done much.  My dog shows more ambition and determination then they have.

Yankee Bob


Systemic Risk That

Threatens Global Economy

Japan- The amount of radiation spewing from the broken nuclear reactors will soon top Chernobyl. Yesterday had the highest readings yet recorded from reactor #1

Europe’s weak economiesThe financial stability of these countries keeps growing - Story LINK

The problem here is the trend. News keeps getting worse and the solutions used to fix the wounds don’t always work.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up aInvestopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.31% Down
NASDQ +0.55% Up
S&P 500 +0.32% Up
Russell 2000 +1.30% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Yesterday a rumor of Fed POMO #3 spread around 3 PM EST and stocks shot higher. Then the rally collapsed when it became just a rumor. This illustrated again how closely tied stock market bulls are tied to Fed liquidity.
  • Historically, trading decreases before a holiday weekend. So next Tuesday becomes the pivotal day.
  • UUP (the dollar ETF) still the index to watch. In the globalized world, when the goes dollar down stocks movie higher. Why? – It means our goods are cheaper abroad and theirs more expensive here. The dollar’s fall/weakness has been a major factor in stocks moving higher. All this is obviously linked to the Fed’s liquidity injections creating more $ and therefore weakening our currency. [Investors411 will has and will keep repeating the above mantra, because its so important to US equities and greatly impacts and improving US economy]
  • From Yesterday – Reading Tea Leaves -  Getting a little more bearish each day. However still believe and oversold bounce is likely, especially if/as the MO falls below -60 and we reach the 1295 support level.  Right now it looks like any bounce will just be another lower high. Sure looks like the call for bounce is happening.
  • Reading The Tea LeavesHolding with short term prediction of oversold bounce (see MO & US Dollar forecasts below) and bears asserting themselves as we get closer to and beyond June 30th.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocksDollar was flat yesterday -0.01%.  Since late April we have been in a bullish trend and established two higher highs and now a higher low. The dollar is the key index to watch and has a strong inverse correlation with socks. Trend for stocks = Bearish/Neutral (More Bearish than neutral)
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO was basically flat. Closing price  -28.43 Yesterday Investors411 mentioned that stocks in April bounced off a low of just above -50. The same bounce seems to have started now.  Short term trend = Bullish/Neutral

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Paul’s Corner

As expected we had a bounce Wednesday. Silver up another 3.2%, US Oil up 1.7% and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index up 1.3%  The S&P 500 up 0.3%. The small caps, aka “risk trade” lead they way. The oil stocks are moving up once again. Most indexes where up all afternoon and volume a bit higher than normal which is good. Is this the end of the correction or just a bounce?

The following group indexes all were up today with a decent move up through their Bollinger bands.

  • Trvl&Leisr-Gaming Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Products Index (INDEX)
  • Office Supplies&Equip Index (INDEX)
  • Comp-Educ/Enter Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Instruments Index (INDEX)
  • Retail-Jewelry Index (INDEX)
  • Chem-Speciality Index (INDEX)
  • BusSvc-Cml Printing Index (INDEX)
  • Comp-Financial Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Dent/Med Sup&Svc Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Bio/Genetic Index (INDEX)
  • Constr-Mobile/RV Index (INDEX)
  • Retail-Mail Order Index (INDEX)
  • Comp-Networks Index (INDEX)
  • Container Prod Index (INDEX)
  • Hsld-Furn/Office Index (INDEX)
  • Enrg-O&G Equip Index (INDEX)
  • Chem-Fertilizer Index (INDEX)

Here is how Your Stock List looked at the close yesterday.

  • SPRD jumped 8.6% closed on the 50 DMA
  • LYB up 4.63% with the oils, closed above the 50, buyable
  • BEXP up 4.44% with the oils, below the 50 above the 17 buyable
  • CPHD up 3.75% closed above the 17 in buying range
  • KSU up 3.3% mostly white candles the past 8 days, all green indicators
  • POT up 2.68% Below the 50 chart does NOT say buy at the moment
  • RVBD up 2.57% above the 17
  • PCLN up 1.61% chart still breaking down, most indicators red
  • ABC up 1.49% sitting just below the 17, basing
  • ALTR up 1.46% below the 17, above the 50 basing
  • RNOW up 1.32% below the 17  and the 50
  • ADTN up 1.27% appears to have settled down into a basing period, at the 50
  • SKWS up 0.32%, not buyable, on the 200
  • SAP up 0.35% broken down below the 50
  • JNPR up 0.14% Woof!
  • BIDU up 0.28% the mighty BIDU appears to be breaking down, NOT buyable
  • IMAX down 0.04% sell off with a hammer candle stick, usually a bounce after a hammer.

So what’s the market going to do today? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Chart review is for education and NOT a stock recommendation.  Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I’m sure not going to.

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Positions

SLV and AGQ had another excellent day. Often, technically,  when stocks/ETF’s gap higher for the third time in a row it means exhaustion or they have temporarily run out of buyers. So if silver again gaps higher at open you could see a reversal. Very tempted to take 1/2  the profits into rally and let the rest ride.

Disclosure – I have a long term position in GLD for a senior center account I manage  and member of my family. I also own some SLV from a covered call position bought over two months ago. I own every position in the hypothetical Investors portfolio which now consists of SLV & REMX

CautionAGQ (2X leveraged silver ETF) does not exactly tracks silver. There are opening and closing distortions. Contact me if you want to know more. Same for ZSL(double short silver) DGP is double long gold – for those that like great risk

Last warning on YSL.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 19, 2011

“Donald Ducks” (2)

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Happy Talk

The happy talk by governments and  media outlets around the world have masked the severity of the 2008 economic meltdown. Today, that same happy talk hit reality in Japan.

TEPCO and the Japanese government has continued to underestimate the problems in Japan.

  • The lead story in yesterday’s NYT examined “Vents that American officials said would prevent devastating explosions at nuclear plants in the United States were put to the test in Japan and failed.” (Thanks to frequent blogger Popeye for heads up on this.)
  • Today we learn that Japan’s GDP for the last quarter was almost twice as bad as was predicted. Last quarter’s GDP was -3.7% making Japan officially in a double dip recession.(Two negative quarters of GDP)

The sky is not falling. However, its time for some  realism when comes to economics and nuclear power.

  • The USA is the ONLY country that is NOT stopping to evaluate  its nuclear program in light of the Japanese disaster. Shouldn’t we pause to evaluate nuclear power?
  • Japan was the #2 economic power in the world till this year and its GDP had turned negative before the nuke disaster. Our economy and the worlds is in a fragile recovery. Shouldn’t the immediate focus of our politicians be insuring that we recover?

Without recovery there will be no funds to impact problems of the future. Japan seems to be taking the right role and focusing on recovery. Our politicians in the USA should do the same.

The Donald Ducks”

Headline from Politico

Three of the leading Republican candidates (Gallop Poll) effectively ended their quest for the presidency this week.

Mike HuckabeeAnnounced he would not run – Not to worry he will keep his FOX News show. Directly after his announcement in what only can be considered as bizarre Fox news ran a long infomercial as Donald Trump monologued his assessment of Hukabee, Obama and politics.

Newt Gingrich- Announced that Ryan’s plan to privatize and eliminate Medicare was “too radical.” This brought down the wrath of Republicans and then led Newt to say opps it was the media’s fault. Ryan’s plan will cost more and cover less (Goggle the words – CBO, Ryan & medicare) for American according to the non partisan Congressional Budget Office.

The Donnald - Announced he would no run – Not to worry he will keep his TV show. Trumps tough talk (fear mongering, finger pointing, & bigotry) and constant references to his TV show had catapulted him to the #2 position behind Huckabee (Gallop Poll) in the race for president. Wake up and smell the coffee, this run was all about Trump’s ego and his show. Everyone from the media on down who took his candidacy seriously was played for a sucker. (see Popeye’s remarks in comments section of blog)

The new Gallop poll has two new front runners for the presidency.

Mitt RomneyA candidate in 2008 whose cardboard presentation and flip flops on positions made John McCain look like John Wayne on Steroids. If Newt stays, undoubtedly, folks will evaluate which of the two has changed more positions. Romney wins the cardboard contest hands down.

Sarah PalinMama Grizzly can always say grrrr.

Maybe a better candidate will emerge from the pack. Stay tuned.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.65% Down
NASDQ +1.14% Down
S&P 500 +0.68% Down
Russell 2000 +1.60% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Stocks returned to the most familiar pattern since Fed managed/manipulated liquidity was reintroduced last November – An ultra light volume rally
  • UUP is the tracking ETF for the dollar is still the most relevant forecasting tool for US equities. Dollar. up = stocks down. Dollar down = stocks up
  • The dollar has flattened over last three days and a moderately oversold rallied.
  • Dell had a solid earnings report and investors  ignored the earlier poor reports from Cisco and HP. Commodities also rebounded, but the technicals (Dollar and MO above and charts/explanation below) were the driving Factors.
  • Our Fed managed/manipulated growing money supply had no place to park its money – Treasury bonds are falling, 0% interest rates in stocks, and a whole bunch of added dollars have recently come out of commodities & stocks. Therefore, Path of least resistance was for oversold stocks to move higher.
  • Short term momentum with bulls

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar was flat +0.03% yesterday.  After a big run  higher for 8 trading days the dollar has flattened or retreated for the last 3 days. Three flat days is neutral. but momentum is still with dollar bulls. If the dollar continues to move sideways the outlook will change to Neutral. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .MO fell to -40 two days ago and rose to -9.04 yesterday. Accurate prediction from Tuesday MO isOn its way to oversold (@-60) Another bad day or two and we should be ready for at least an oversold bounce. We got that bounce yesterday and, depending on the dollar  could hold onto those gains today. However MO is now near Zero and therefore = Neutral

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Paul’s Corner

What an interesting week so far, at the start of the day I don’t know whether I should open a new bottle of Tums or put on the party hat.  Wednesday was a good day and most of Your Stock List looks ok with many stocks in a good buy the dip position.

So how do we “buy the dip” without “losing the house’?

Buying when a stock drops and touches the 17 or 50 DMA or if below when it crosses up through the average is usually a good method. In many instances a stock isn’t at a moving average or is even slightly below the average so we need to place a buy order above the previous days high to get a safe trade.

LYB took a serious hit this week along with the sell off of the commodities and now is in a buy the dip position. I have prepared a PDF  file  explaining  how to safely trade LYB in a  “buy the dip” position .

LINK

Take a look at the stocks in Your Stock List [click on word POSITIONS at top of blog and scroll down for list] and you’ll see most are in the “Buy The Dip” position.  SPRD and JNPR would not have been bought yesterday may 18  using this method since they didn’t raise above their close on May 17.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 13, 2011

Meltdown

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Fukushima Damage

Meltdown

Yet more stories of greater than expected damage. Reactor #1 at the troubled Japanese nuclear plant has melted fuel rods. Here’s the money quotes from the Reuter’s story.

  • “One of the reactors at Japan’s crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant has a hole in its main vessel following a meltdown of fuel rods, leading to a leakage of radioactive water”
  • U.S. nuclear experts said that the company may have to build a concrete wall around the unit because of the breach, and that this could now take years.”

“Years” to contain the radiation. Already if you live 10 miles from the plant you are allowed two hours only to retrieve your belongings and have to wear a protective suit to enter the area for those two hours. Anyone who has seen the moving graphic (scroll down) of the radiation plume has seen that plume mostly go over the ocean but also its blown back across central and northern Japan.

The damage has been constantly underestimated by officials, but not by this blog. Year’s of significant amounts of leaking radiation is a clear possibility or probability.

“Crackpot” Senator

” When the devoted follower of crackpot cult leader Ayn Rand gets elected to the Senate, you wind up having Congressional hearings filled up with feverish reasoning like this:Link to video and editorial on Senator Rand Paul (Republican TN) The problem here is much of Wall Street worship’s Ayn Rand who wrote “The Virtues of Selfishness” The video is less than 2 minutes. Check it out.

Paul says if you think you have a right to health care “it means you believe in slavery.” So everyone who believes in medicare believes in slavery. There are some concepts Libertarians/Ayn Rand worshipers (and a Tea Party darling) have right. (example – end empire building) but when you peal away the outer shell its the core beliefs of leaders like Paul that are something rational, reasoned individuals must be aware of.

FYI – Republican congressman Ron Paul (Rand’s father) has officially launched his bid for president.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.52% flat
NASDQ +0.63% down
S&P 500 +0.49% down
Russell 2000 +0.82% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Weekly jobs numbers came in worse than expected, but not as bad as last week. Two week trend is negative.
  • Economic data for yesterday was poor and tech giant CSCO was down 5%.
  • All this bad news is not negative for the markets, because it means a greater likelihood of some king of managed/manipulate/liquidity driven Fed program will be reintroduced after June 30th.
  • The Fed money supply finds its way into stocks each day.
  • MantraManaged/manipulated markets distort traditional technical & fundamental analysis because of the continued introduction of new market capital. Bad news is good for stock markets again and again and again. – Yesterday is just latest example.
  • What’s happening in Europe very important. Shorter term -The Euro is falling, so the dollar is getting stronger. Longer term – obviously economic hardship in Europe impacts the world.
  • Euro is rising abroad today. Domino’s –  Euro rises = dollar falls = stocks rally

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar flattened +0.11%yesterday. Third major move higher in 6 day has created a short term bullish trend. Long term trend is still bearish for the dollar. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo rose  to +11.41. Still in the middle of its range. Almost equal room to rally or fall = Neutral

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Dividend Stocks

More in this continuing series early next week. See part’s 1 & 2 by using calender at top of blog. Click on May 9th & 11th.

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Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves – Long term outlook below is still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and has been that was almost every day since QE #2 started in November. Shorter term forecasting tools

  • The dollar – Stocks have held up quite well despite the short term rally in the dollar. This may continue as long as Fed POMO liquidity keeps managing/manipulating stocks higher. Without quantitative easing (POMO) the dollar would probably rise a whole lot faster
  • MO has been in neutral the past couple days and given no strong overbought or oversold signal. So this shorter term forecasting tool is parked in Neutral

Analysis – Overall long term, remains the same CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, probably will till the Fed QE2/POMO ends on June 30th. All the printed money has to have somewhere to go and stocks have higher yields than the near 0% interest rates of banks and better but still meager yields of bonds. If US stocks falter after 6/30, there will be strong pressure to continue to have some sort of liquidity program by the Fed.

UUP - The tracking ETF for the dollar still the index to watch. Dollar up significantly = stocks down

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD. I also own NLY and AGNC mentioned above

“I have a position” = Either I own it personally or a member of my family does.  I also manage an account for a non profit organization.

The Investors411 Portfolios – See POSITIONs Section of blog. – Click on word POSITIONS at top of page.

  • REMX – Still trading above 50 day moving average which would be a buying point if your interested in owning rare earth mining companies.
  • NLY and AGNC (two recommended high dividend stocks) still too far above 50 DMA to buy. Have buy order for NLY at 17.70
  • YSL stocks according to longer term market outlook CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH are  in a position to buy. Shorter term Investors411 feels a lower MO is a superior buying position. Also each stock individual performance obviously matters. See Paul’s remark’s on right side of blog.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 14, 2011

Top 3 Investments for 2nd 1/4

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Rolling Stone Photo – Wall Street Wives

If you haven’t taken your blood pressure medication this AM – Please take an extra dose before reading below.

Wall Street WivesMatt Taibbi from the Rolling Stone has come up with another jaw dropper. Remember Geithner and Bernanke’s Wall Street Bailout. Seems that the “wives of   JPMorgan bigwigs walked away with $220 million dollars.Opening line of editorial – “Most Americans know about that budget. What they don’t know is that there is another budget of roughly equal heft, traditionally maintained in complete secrecy

The Closing Government Soap Opera. – Remember all the media attention of the $38 billion the Republicans were supposedly cutting from the budget. Two days ago the press went bananas when they found out it was only $14 billion. Yesterday the non partisan CBO put the actual figure at $353 million. Yes, that’s million with an M.

Crony Capitalism - It’s simply not fair to put the blame on the real housewives of of Wall Street or JPM. Now that the Fed was forced to open its books we find out the real husbands at Goldman Sachs got (See Matt Taibbi’s piece) $800 billion from the Fed. Yes, that’s billion with a B.

Get out of Jail Free - The US Treasury Department actually used hash language toward shadow bankers in a sternly worded proclamation Remember the phony foreclosures, robocalls etc. reveled months ago. Billions evaporated thousands lost their homes. Bankers got a tender tap in their wrists. The NYT has finally caught on and its headline story is on No one from Wall Street goes to Jail

GE is to return $3.2 billion tax rebates!? The whole AP story turned out to be a hoax. YOU pay taxes, GE doesn’t. – Bummer

The Prestigious Pinocchio Award. The Japanese government has been less than than honest about the nuclear reactor situation. FYI – TEPCO has just confirmed reactor 4 is open air fussionYANKEE BOB is back in the comments section (scroll down) with an editorial. Here’s a sample – “the gamble with public safety to use Nuclear energy to boil water has failed.”

Maybe we’re more than just a morsal for Wall Street sharks. EW in the comments sections saw Obama’s deficit speech as hopeful – Obama quotes “There’s nothing serious about a plan that claims to reduce the deficit by spending a trillion dollars on tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires,” …. “There’s nothing courageous about asking for sacrifice from those who can least afford it and don’t have any clout on Capitol Hill. And this is not a vision of the America I know.”

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Today a format change to focus more time on three investments for the 2nd quarter. But first here’s market news

  • Fed’s ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) & QE 2 is sustaining stock rally and forces anyone who wants a high yield is forces into higher risk stocks,  or junk bonds.
  • Yesterday’s action was no more than a pause (slight uptick) and we’re close, but haven’t reached oversold levels or a buy the dip level yet
  • Paul often makes closing remarks in the comments section of the blog. From yesterday – “If any of you folks like to study the charts, you’ll see on many of the major indicies a clear “double top’ and that often signals coming hell fire and brimstone’s”

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Three Top Investment Areas

Rare Earth Metals - REMX (link to chart)

REMX is the ETF that tracks the major rare earth metal companies. Most data below is from Van Eck Global owner of REMX ETF.

This is a simple supply/demand story. The demand outstrips the supply. China currently provides 97% of rare earth metal production. InDec. of 2010 China announced it would cut exports of rare earth metals 35% because to keep some for their own use. REMX has only 17% exposure to china. It takes a long time to mine these metals so many of the companies REMX invest in have yet to become major producers. Obviously the companies/mines outside China are ramping up production as fast as possible.

Some applications for Rare earth metals include hybrid cars,steel alloys, wind turbines, flat screen TV’s, jet engines & cell phones. So you can understand the demand.

Downside risk – If we fall into a second recession or depression REMX will suffer. However it should outperform because of the supply/demand issue.

Gold - GLD & DGP (2x or ultra long gold)(both ticker symbols are links to charts)

GLD & DGP (2X) are the ETF’s that track gold prices. Obviously DGP carries twice the risk/reward.

Arguably the #1 source for gold information is GFMS Reuters last week featured their supply/demand analysis on both gold and silver. The fundamentals are relevant, but we all know, gold prices move higher on fear of the future.

I follow Jesse’s Cafe Americain on both gold and silver. The technical analysis and inside information is superb. In the future Investors411 will give updates from this site.

SilverSLV & AGQ (2x silver) (both ticker symbols are links to charts)

SLV & AGQ are the ETF’s that track silver prices. Obviously AGQ carries twice the risk/reward.

Silver has more industrial uses. Links to important information on silver above.

If you are considering investing in this area or just want a good laugh you have to watch one of the two bears videos on silver. “You want me to buy more silver? Holy s–t man I’m going to s–t my pants.”

Paul would be a great source on individual gold, silver and rare earth companies if you are interested ask. MCP is the one company that I like in rare earth field. We almost put this on YOUR Stock List #4, but decided REMX would cover the sector.

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List can be found in the POSITIONS Section of blog

I have personal  positions in REMX, RJA, SLV, EWV, (Note – sold UWM into rally) In fact the single largest investment for a non profit I’m the treasurer of is GLD for the past 5 years.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 12, 2011

Japan goes Chernobyl

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Japan Aftershock

Moment of Silence in Japan

Japan Goes Chernobyl

For a month Investors411 has been telling you that this disaster is far worse than expected. Japan has now upgraded the Nuclear disaster from level 5 to level 7. Level 7 is the worst.

Here’s a Nuclear Expert Tuur Demeester, whose been on the cover of Time Magazine editorial titled “Spent Fuel Pools in US are a potential time bomb, situation can get worse than Chernobyl”

To give you an idea of the scope of Chernobyl here’s the Wikipedia map of currently impacted areas

Jan Hatzius

GS’s Jan Hatzius

Goldman Sachs Stomps on Commodities

GS & JP Morgan are the two shadow banks with the most power. When they  say jump and Obama (also most other polls and related monetary officials) says how high. The shadow bank cartel along with the military industrial cartel are the two most powerful entities in the USA today.

Yesterday the IMF lowered its global growth picture and GS stomped on commodities. Thanks to Paul for info on the first and one of you who gets the GS announcements for the second. Here’s the money quote that was posted in the comments section of the blog yesterday

“We are closing our CCCP basket trade, first recommended on December 1, 2010, for a gain of roughly 25% against our 28% target. This recommendation was premised on our belief that Crude Oil, Copper, Cotton/Soybeans and Platinum remain the key structurally supply-constrained markets. On a 12-month horizon we believe the CCCP basket still has upside potential, but the unrest in the Middle-East and North Africa region, and the potential for further supply shocks pushed the basket up significantly in a short period and our Commodity Research team believes that in the near term the risk/reward no longer favours being long the basket and consequently, we are closing the recommendation with good potential gains. While crude oil, cotton and copper prices have substantially exceeded our targets, platinum and soybean prices have lagged.”

Earlier in the year Investors411 brought you GS call for 2011. Their chief economist, Jan Hatzius, is perhaps the most powerful economist in the financial world


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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.01% down
NASDQ -0.45% up
S&P 500 -0.28% down
Russell 2000 -0.84% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more. Remember Fed liquidity (POMO, QE 2 or quantitative easing) announced ending is June 30th.

  • The Goldman Sachs note (bearish on some top commodity plays in short term) well describes an outlook that could hold investors attention today too. But, all leaders , including emerging markets took it on the overbought chin yesterday.
  • As Paul has pointed out earnings season is around the corner.
  • If you want a complete update on today’s stock news – here’s seeking Alpha’s senior editor. -Japan is the lead = Bearish

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   Dollar rose moderately yesterday +0.26%. However longer term trend since start of year is bearish with lower highs and lower lows on chart, We are at a lower low. In shorter term we probably will form a lower high, so thats bearish for stocks. But longer term - For stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -28.36.  Getting close to overbought, but still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Looks like we are in for a correction. The dip last month took the MO down to -85 (see link to chart above) Since the MO is compiled at the end of the day you have to guesstimate where it will end up. Usually a 1 to 2% loss is good for about a 30 point drop.

Bottom Line – No Black Swan events have been able to seriously impact the Fed liquidity driven equity market. So we are nearing a buy the dip territory.

What to watch today – For shorter term traders Market movers - UUP (the dollar) still has most influential, unless others make some huge move like Japan’s announcement – Irony is if the Fed were not dumping money the Japanese move has the potential to devastate world economics.

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya show stalemate and slight recovery for reels.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bearish
  • Japan Rector Developments – This keeps getting worse.
  • EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting  way over extended and now correcting.

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

This  is a repeat from early last week – Will place this list in Positions section.

Below are the recommended ETF’s/ETN’s for the 2nd Quarter

  • Since many of these choices are not directly related to stocks on the NYSE the MO & the Dollar may influence them differently.
  • Buy the dip is a recommended strategy (Investors411 likes the 17, and 50 DM’s) Especially don’t buy when stock is too far above 17 DMA
  • A 7% to 10% trailing stop loss is recommended
  • World events impact these sectors
  • Investors411 believes these sectors should outperform the S&P 500 now through June 30
  • Investors411 expects, baring a change in world events, a higher S&P 500 on June 30th.  Emerging markets and US small caps stocks are especially vulnerable to any meltdown of the S&P.
  • You can use part or all of list.
  • Note - I own SLV, REMX, UWM,RJA, EWV, and plan to own ILF on a dip. Sold UCO yesterday down 7% from high. Very sad for Japan, but selfishly happy to own EWV (ultra short Japan ETF)


UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. Historically driving season in summer drives prices up in the late spring. Supply problems exist because of revolutions/instability in oil producing countries. If these problems are resolved then UCO should NOT be held.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  Simply put because of limited supply of rare earth metals and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. Only some sort of major economic collapse will hurt this sector. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) and/or SLV (silver). AGQ (2x silver) Both inflation worries and a falling dollar positively impact this sector. Silver actually has a manufacturing component.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS

UWM (2x small cap stocks) or TNA (3X small cap stocks) The later for more aggressive traders. Closest correlation to MO and falling dollar. Small cap stocks are outperforming.

EEM (emerging markets) and/or ILF (Latin America) EDC (3X emerging markets) The later for most aggressive traders. Emerging markets are leading the world and after underperforming for years they are back.

EWV (ultra short Japan) The horrific and tragic situation there has been minimized. This holding acts in part as a hedge especially for US small cap stocks and emerging markets.

TMV (3x 20+ year Treasury yields)

A winning hedge has been UWM & EWV combination (some of you may have problems emotionally shorting Japan)

ROM (2x techs) & TYH (3x techs) The later for most aggressive traders.–  Technology has been toasted and if the S&P is higher on June 30th, this sector should catchup.

I’ll keep this on the blog’s home page for a week or two then place it ion the Positions page.

.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.

Paul has an excellent strategy on when to buy dips – See his postings in comments section throughout the day – These apply to ETF’s also

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 28, 2011

Black Swans

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

JapanTEPCO in Japan has finally called for outside help. Even Greenpeace is on the ground saying their readings differ from TEPCO’s (science over politics) Common Dreams web site has a fascinating  real time tweeter updates TEPCO admits protracted and uncertain operation to contain crisis. Here the short version of the best video yet on the tsunami

Taxes –  GE made $14.2 billion in profits last year and over $5 billion in the USA. Guess how much they paid in taxes last year year Wait for it, Wait for it,  Wait for it – ZERO.  Now remember your taxes are due by April 15. Only in America

Financial Reform – Seems that virtually all Republicans and some Democrats are doing everything possible to make sure that those too big to fail shadow banks that destroy the meager measures the Dodd/Frank Bill put in place. The NYT’s lead editorial yesterday

Libya – This call may be premature, but it looks like after the allied/UN air strike many who supported Ka Daffy are changing sides. At least his army in the eastern 1/2 of the country has melted away. Al Jazeera reports no resistance to rebels in his home town. Huffington Post live blog

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Here’s the chart that demonstrates what Investors411 has been saying  since last year and why the Bulls Rule in our liquidity driven Fed manipulated stock market. (I realize most of you are sick of me saying the above again and again, but NOW is the opportunity to profit from this)

  • This chart was done by Kevin McCElroy from Seeking Alpha.
  • Want to know more? – Impact of POMO on Dollar by LFB from SA

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.41% down
NASDQ +0.24% down
S&P 500 +0.32% down
Russell 2000 +0.83% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Another weak volume liquidity driven manipulated rally on Friday.
  • On the surface it looks like the rag tag exuberant bunch called rebels in Libya are winning, because oncee air strikes clobbered exposed military units resistance became almost non existent – For stock = bullish. For oil = Bearish For Ka Daffy = Bearish
  • Black Swans (Big event bad news) everywhere. From John Nyaradi on this week’s outlook in stocks. Remember bad news is more often than not an elixir for stocks because it means a stronger possibility of more quantitative easing.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose significantly +0.74% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three day bull run For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +24.38 Getting oversold. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30 = Bearish /Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The Bulls have had a stellar 7 day run in weak volume. (weak volume rally= calling card of a liquidity driven manipulated market)  They are starting to come up against some technical resistance that may slow them down – A rising dollar and the MO nearing overbought levels. “Merger” Monday  has historically been the best day of the week. If Ka Daffy supporters don’t have the stomach for a fight you could see rally continue. The however  perversely good news (lower oil prices if Ka Daffy looses) may turn out negative because it would mean less of a chance of QE ##

Short term rising dollar and oversold levels should hold bulls back this week.

War room

Every major group of traders is sitting in their war rooms discussing the end of QE #2 (quantitative easing) and how it will impact markets before/on/after June 30th (ending date)

Will the Fed do a QE #3? Since we have over 3 months till this happens bulls should rule unless too many traders front run what they perceive is the end of quantitative easing. Frankly, there are whole mess of investors out there who believe there will be a QE #3.

So best read of tea leaves is still bullish till June 30th. More low volume rallies. (see chart above)

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up  8+% now
  • A Hedge – Friday bought UWM at 47.00 & EWV (2x short Japan) at 35.81 (see comments section of blog)

UWM – - Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. - approaching highs of last month & 2010 – I do own this ETF in other accounts and have sold covered calls on some of it.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversly to the dollar

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Your Stock List seems to be turning the corner and has 5 breakout stocks

3 of the 4 major indexes are above their 50 DMA’s and the NASDQ is sitting on its 50 DMA.

Longer Term OutlookCAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 24, 2011

Investor in Wonderland

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Yankee Bob - just one week before the baseball season starts and Bob is back with an editorial on Nuclear Power in today’s comments section. Here’s an excerpt -

“…First rule of poker or gaming theory is never bet more then you are prepared to lose. Who paces bets on nuclear energy generation? Not the people.  Corporations looking for profit place the bets…”

Hint  - The young Red Sox’s fan pictured above is NOT making a comment on Yankee Bob’s editorial, but on a baseball team.

Investor In Wonderland – Stock market editorial below in Reading The Tea Leaves Section.

Radiation In Japan – Two other prefectures next to Tokyo have the glow in the dark radiated water. (so maybe it doesn’t glow, but I sure folks wish radiated water did glow) No “harmfull” levels in Tokyo today – or so we are told by those oh so reliable officials. Steam from all 4 reactors today. 1st time from reactor #1. This from helicopter crew with might big zoom lens 30 kilometers away from nuke plant.

Hacker Collective/Anonymous - Out with proclamation – These folks exposed The Chamber of Commerce’s hidden smear tactics against opponents and BAC’s hidden manipulations.

“getting our National Rights and dreams back….To effectively reform the system that has enslaved us, we must consider the advice and example of those who have preceded us. Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and JFK are good places to start. All took fierce positions against central banking, government corruption and corporate power… The time has come for us to unite, the time has come for us to stand up and fight. ”

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.56% up
NASDQ +0.54% up
S&P 500 +0.29% up
Russell 2000 +0.32% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Another weak volume liquidity driven manipulated rally. Fed POMO buying ended at 11:00AM EST and that’s when US stocks started to rally
  • 2 days of Fed buying = $15 billion Sure helps stocks to have a tsunami of liquidity behind the trading desks of Goldman Sachs and other shadow institutions/primary Fed dealers.
  • BAC (Bank of America) was NOT allowed to issue a dividend. Our cover up specialists, oops excuse me – government regulators said no dividend for BAC, they didn’t pass the stress test, but its all opaque because no numbers were published and would you trust the numbers of people who post government job could be to work for financials they regulate.
  • New home sales dipped 17% – another horrible statistic in housing. XHB – The ETF for homebuilders rallied on the news – Really I’m not kidding.

________________

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose significantly +0.75% One day does not change the pattern. Clear bearish longer term pattern still in place. For stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -0.81 Right in the middle – not overbought or oversold. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Welcome to the world of liquidity driven Shadow & Central Bank manipulated markets. Not Alice in Wonderland, but Investor in Wonderland.

The Bad news

  • Housing down 17%
  • Huge Bank fails stress test.
  • Oil Prices high and moving higher
  • The dollar up significantly
  • Radiated water in a city of 13 million people
  • Another oil war looks like a protracted stalemate.
  • Europe debt crisis grows as Portugal’s government collapses on a no confidence vote

So what does our stock market do – A RALLY

There is a perverse logic to this bad news is fodder for a rally.  The more bad news there is the more Central Banks (especially the USA) around the world print money or institute quantitative easing. This is all leading to one big bubble bursting down the road, but for now we have all leaned to balance on the top of that ever expanding bubble.

From Yesterday on Japan’s growing Nuclear problems –  Investors or media in the USA may not pick up on this story immediately, but it sure looks like it has major long term consequences that will impact Japan’s GDP.

At least Japan’s markets were actually DOWN a bit on bad news. But just a bit because Japan, just like the USA is going to print gobs of  TOILET PAPER (aka money)  to pay off their debt.

Short Term Bottom Line – So in honor of baseball season in just one week – Put Your Rally Caps on – This is a Bubblicious Wonderland,

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Close at 45.49 yesterday.

UWM - – Sell order still in at 43. 93 (1% above what i was bought for) which will close entire position.

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. – approaching highs of last month & 2010 – I do own this ETF in other accounts and have sold covered calls on some of it.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. - Shouda Woulda Coulda – Up +3.73% two days ago - Dipped yesterday, but ended up confirming or holding onto gains. Strong consideration to buy any dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Buy the dip

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Another day or two like yesterday and the Long Term Outlook goes back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

Longer Term OutlookNEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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