Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 3, 2011

The Face

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

News Briefs


But First a photo story from the 99%

I chose my dog.

New Photo/Stories of the 99% at

LINK


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Briefs


  • Herman Cain accuses Rick Perry of orchestrating Sex smear campaign - NYT & FOX
  • Latest Poll out yesterday on Republicans – Cain 30%, Romney 23% Others 10% or lower. LINK
  • “The flip-flopper tag he [Romney] earned four years ago is taking on new resonance”. “Afraid to Lead” FOX News
  • Cain’s 12 year old harassment accusation seem minor compared to other political sex scandals.
  • Comparison –  OWS has had over 3000 arrests while those calling for democracy in Syria have over 3000 deaths
  • Syria responds to Arab League’s proposal to end violence in Syria with threat – “Volcano” of blood if attacked LINK
  • OWS Oakland Thousands peacefully demonstrate, marred by no one hurt vandalism/arrests at night. LINK
  • Poll 75% of Americans support Obama’s Leaving Iraq withdrawal LINK
  • Fed downgrades future GDP and employment numbers. Stocks hold gains. LINK
  • God in politics –  Obama on his jobs plan “Even God wants to put Americans back to work.”  LINK
  • Split in Greece over referendum NYT
  • Private ADP report shows 110,000 jobs added – juices stocks yesterday LINK
  • Europe has an unfunded plan that involves a 50% bond haircut and Greek austerity. If December referendum in Greece fails, then a whole bunch of CDS’s (over leveraged gambling) blow up causing EU & US banks big big big trouble. How German Chancellor feels about the Greek referendum shown in her face below.

The Face


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STOCKS

Same Question

Will The Baby Bear Market Hang On?

Fundamentals move markets and the most important one out there is the resolution of the European crisis. German markets up 2.62% at 8:30 EST.

However, today we have the governments weekly jobs report. It is a short term market mover and mildly positive results expected. Jobs numbers are - 397,000  = Unemployment number. Pre market trading seems to slightly like this below 400k number.   Friday’s monthly report BIG #


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Reading The Tea Leaves

  • Our secondary indicator, the Put Call Ratio fell to 1.17. Its 50DMA which is at 1.16 = NEUTRAL
  • For more on MO & PCR see POSITION Section of blog (scroll down)

Remember – Fundaments (Like earnings reports) move stocks. All technicals can do is offer guideposts – like stop signs, speed limits and red/yellow/green lights. Fundamentals are the drivers who can blow right past any technical signals or just put the car in reverse.

Technicals are NEUTRAL. For reasons illuminated yesterday bulls have the mojo.

Yesterday’s Short Term Prediction Still Holds – So, at least for now, that baby bear is in trouble.

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Paul’s Corner

Failure?

That’s right folks failure YSL 5 was a failure. It only gave us 6.81% while the S&P 500 yielded 9.14%.  I’m really disappointed with the list only giving ups 6.81% in 50 days of trading.  That’s an annualized yield of only 30% (approx.). Come on folks what a disappointment, we could have made more money by buying a CD at the local bank. CD yields are currently  1% , and I’m closing out my trading account and  going down to the local S&L and  opening up a safe and secure CD!

Actually folks 6.81% during the past 10 weeks of chaos in the markets due to the constant news feed from the Euro War Zone ain’t half bad. Frankly it would have been easier on the stomach during this current correction if one would have been in cash the whole time as the yield on the portfolio changed hourly depending on the news feed of the moment.

If one had this portfolio and had wisely cut CROX and GMCR when the chart first dictated, the results would have been closer to 10% for the 50 days of trading. So was YSL  failure? I don’t think so, you folks picked a great bunch of stocks and now is the time to email Barr and make your suggestions for YSL 6. I believe we are going to keep 10 members of YSL 5 so we have room for 5 new stocks.

I am enjoying reading Gil Morales new book “How To Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple”. Here are a few interesting points from the 1st chapter.

“Buy based on both fundamental and technicals, but sell purely technicals. Technical action should always be the final judge  when selling the stock.” (GMCR & CROX)

“No matter how great a stock‘s fundamentals, a serious bear market will usually  drag a stock down.”

“While earnings are one of the most important variables used to gauge a potential stock, sales growth is a useful metric for (new) stocks with no earnings. Understanding the fundamental story behind a stock together with understanding how Wall Street perceives the story  behind the stock proves beneficial.”

This is going to be a great book to read!


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Positions


Paul has morphed YSL #5 into a new YSL #6 by eliminating the stocks with poor earnings reports (see comments section of blog.)

SPY - Our other position has a stop/loss order at 1211.

GLD – Breaking out – A buy the small dip consideration


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Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months

Benchmark S &P 500 is our line in the sand. Any serious break of this support level changes LTO to NEUTRAL


CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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July 2, 2010

Ants and Nuclear Bombs

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Killing Ants With

nuclear bomb by Shirley Two Feathers.

Republican Leadership

Popeye in Comments section of blog states – John Boehner Republican and next [possible] speaker of the house called the pitifully weak shadow bank fat cat financial reform bill “KILLING AN ANT WITH A NUCLEAR WEAPON.” What plant is he on?

If the Tea Party Patriots and Republicans win the next election John Boehner will be Speaker of the House – This guy thinks, that financial crisis/reform is just an “ant” John McCain made light of the financial crisis before the election and it handed Obama the election. Boehner had the benefit of hindsight.

There is still at least one Republican who has not drunk the Tea Party Kool Aid – Senator Lindsey Grahram -To Tea Partiers in a meeting: ‘What do you want to do? You take back your country — and do what with it?’…Everybody went from being kind of hostile to just dead silent.”…you [TPP's] have no vision…you will die out.”

Bottom Line – As much as you and I disagree with what Obama is doing, the Republican alternative is far worse

Cheney/Bush Won

For years Investors411 has demonstrated US media bias. Latest proof of how Cheney/Bush fear mongering patriotism to a gullible supposedly liberal media (New Your Times & LA Times)working . This Harvard study on terminology proves it – Is water boarding torture?

  • NYT -If other countries waterboarded it was called torture 85.5% of the time.
  • NYT – If US waterboarded after 2004 it was called torture 1.6% of the time
  • NYT – Before 2004 water boarding was called torture 81.5% of the time.

YOU are manipulated daily not only by content, but choice of words and stories the media uses. Even in the NYT

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.42% down
NASDQ -0.37% down
S&P 500 -0.32% down
Russell 2000 -078% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Mantra for week - “ Any analysis of stocks has become an analysis of what the ”Black Boxes” of  huge institutions with their high frequency trades & computer algorithms are doing.” They make up 80% of trading and right now the huge currency markets are dictating their moves.”

Clash of the Titans

Gravity/Fundamentals.

The Black Boxes got overwhelmed by gravity or market fundamentals. So has the month long inverse relationship between the dollar and US stocks. We’ve seen a lot of non black box investors panic and take their $ out of stocks this week. Bad fundamental economic news finally is trumping everything else (see yesterday’s Investors 411 for reasons)

The BDI going over a cliff (-44% see below) is further indications of economic meltdown.

Technicals – Two times in the last two days the Dow has dipped 100+ points (-152 yesterday) only to recover most of those losses. S&P down 8 of last 9 days is certainly another indication that stocks are oversold. Another is obviously the MO. It went below -60 interday (oversold territory) in the 100+ point declines – then recovered.

This is the kind of day investors hate, but short term traders love = VOLATILITY

The bulls titan has a meltdown in the dollar, an oversold market, and knowledge that large dips are getting bought.

The bears titan has a week of horrible fundamentals worldwide & the BDI. Also, Bond traders are running wild. (sorry for lack of explanation here – takes too long – but its bad for stocks)

Icing on the Cake – The Monthly Jobs Report.

The jobs report comes out this AM and anything unexpected could create wild fluctuations. Remember the jobs report is very significant to the long term economic well being of the USA, but it matters far less to the US stock market.

The JUNE Jobs Report Headlines - -9.5% Unemployed vs -9.7 in May = +0.2%, Private sector jobs up +83,000 vs +33,000 in May.

Basicaly in line or a slight positive surprise. This data does not say armegeddon, but you need +200,000 a month to ofset population growth and lower unemployment long term. Stock futures initially moved higher, but are now flat.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell a we bit to -52.19 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. In May the MO reached two lows – one at -120 and the other close to -130. Therefore, potential for more downside risk. = Still NEUTRAL, but almost oversold
  • US Dollar –  The dollar fell an unheard of -1.75% yesterday [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] This is the single largest move in the dollar in the last 6 months probably a lot longer. The support level was more than broken it was devastated Mantra - right now is very important Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. Yesterday stocks and dollar going down together. – A Total Disconnect - Stocks indexes should have soared – up 2 to 4% on this news.  = Bullish
  • BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish. Also good proxy of China) BDI is in free fall from a high of @4200 to  2351 yesterday.( This is a huge -44% drop in 6 weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Here’s a week+ old chart of BDI showing broken support levels. The BDI fell -2.29% Rate of decline increasing as it nears support level =Bearish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekends

Have not yet had a chance to Update over last 2 weekend but there are NO positions held at this time.

Short term Traders - Would buy into any big move to downside, especially if dollar is falling. Use ETF’s that go long 2 & 3 times indexes.

Investors willing to take big risks – Remember The long term outlook is still Cautiously BEARISH.

A significant fall near the end of the session could be a chance for a small nibble. Technically what’s setting up is probably a bear market rally. Realize this may only be a short term trade that you sell 1/2 on only a 5% gains and you should set a stop/loss on trade.

Long Term Outlook =CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 5, 2010

Shredding Democracy & The Yankees

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Chucky shredding wire from the movie or one of the remakes

Shredding Democracy

  • Before Paulson/Bush asked for the  $700 billion 2008 bailout
  • Before the worldwide 2008 stock meltdown
  • Before Lehman Brothers went belly up

the FED Bank under Bernanke acting on its owned spent tens of billions of of unauthorized dollars bailing out AIG and Bear Stern. Without any constitutionally mandated congressional approval or oversight Bernanke/Geithner (who was NY fed board member) flooded these failing shadow financials with money. Did Paulson/Bush know this was happening?

“Its {the FED}secret deals, announced almost two years after they were done, violate the democratic process, if not the Constitution itself.” Robert Reich (Economist and former Sec. of Labor) The Fed came clean about this (masterfully) directly before the Easter break and American media has blown the story. Reich accurately explains the fall out here

What other secrets is the Fed hiding?

Shredding the Yankees

Yesterday was opening day for baseball, and hope springs eternal for every team. Most fans walk through a dark ballpark tunnel into a brightly lit transcendent green field full of hope on opening day.  The beloved Red Sox did twice come from behind to beat the evil empire, sometimes known as the New York Yankees, last night. Unfortunately there is over 170 games left if you make the playoffs and the Yankees will certainly shred far more teams than almost every other in baseball. Go SOX’s.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.65% down
NASDQ +0.19% down
S&P 500 +0.74% down
Russell 2000 +0.79% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made each weekend

Friday’s March jobs report was better than expected, especially for the critical private sector +123,000 jobs created.

It clearly looks like jobs creation started in November and is slowly growing.  Here’s the ultra right wind Washington Times on the jobs report Clearly good news for the economy. The old Jolly Green Giant (not so jolly anymore – Alan Greenspan) and Obama Administration predicting potential acceleration in numbers.

This report, even though the headline -9.7% job loss stayed the same, was too good for Wall Street. The longer interest rates stay low, the better it is for stocks. A better than expected number in the private sector translate to the Fed rising interest rates sooner than expected.

The big stat out of last week was China’s Manufacturing Index coming in better than expected. This shows global growth in emerging markets is still pulling the world’s economy.

Last Week’s Fearless Forecast“Up week” –  All US markets near highs as rally chugs along. Like the RED SOX against the YANKEES last night. We won.

This Weeks Fearless Forecast“Up week” – But really difficult call – The Dollar is King right now. Europe is weak (see past Investors411) and the US (jobs report) is strong. The start of the week should see a rally, but the Dollar is coming up against major support level. (see below) Best read of the tea leaves. Our bullish momentum should carry us higher at the start of the week, but I expect the dollar to hold its support. Earnings season is around the corner and the expectations of better earnings will be the deciding factor making it an up week.

Bottom Line – With the McCellan stuck near zero – no wisdom in buying or selling any large position at this time. Will continue to nibble on dips.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose significantly to -1.46 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – This (at least for a day) broke the downward trading pattern. Downside and Upside risk are about the same. We are neither overbought or oversold.
  • US Dollar -fell  -0.44% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Dollar broke through a more minor support level Friday and ended the day at $80.71. The major support at it climbing 50 day moving average is $80.19. Would be very surprised to see this fall. Falling dollar = rising stocks

As stated before -What the dollar does over the next few weeks is critical to stocks and economics around the world. Falling dollar good for stocks & rising dollar bad in the short term

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

3D and related theater stocks weekend results good. Simply not enough 3D screens to fill the demand.

The big news is the manufacturing growth in China (see above) – Mistake to take profits in FXI (China), but adding EWZ (Brazil) looks to be a good counter balancing longer term move.

Strongly considering adding health care/Biotech ETFs on dips. Their fundamental story is compelling (baby boomers getting older & obamacare covering 30+ million more) Their charts are outperforming. Recently added stocks TEVA & ESRX are in this general area.

Its frustrating, but I’d rather wait till US equities are more oversold to buy larger long term positions.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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February 5, 2010

Wanting Obama to Fail

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

-

Wanting Obama & America to Fail

I may criticize Obama and before him Bush, but I never wanted them to fail. Our politicians have gotten so partisan that Obama’s failure has become far more important than solving problems that confront our country and the world.

Richard Shelby (Powerful Republican Senate finance committee minority leader) – has held up 70 Obama appointments because he wants “earmarks” (special compensation) for his state of Alabama. The Huffington Post  labeled him Mr. Roadblock after Shelby held up the nomination for chief of the General Services Office for 10 Months . She passed 96 to 0 . Additional story here . Buying votes has overwhelmed US politics. But this case was just way too blatent.

PIGS

- World Market’s stocks plunged in an aftershock of the financial earthquake that hit last Oct. 2008. In 2008 it was the huge shadow banks that stood on the brink of collapse from over leveraged debt bombs called Credit Default Swaps.  Iceland’s economy is still shattered because it took on too much OVER LEVERAGED debt.

P ortugal, I reland, G reece, and S pain are now in trouble. You can add Great Britain and all the former Soviet satellite countries.  They bought into the unregulated free market capitalism and now like financials are suffering.  They are selling their debt at much higher prices than we are.  Are other countries going to fall like Iceland?- Bill Gross (big bond seller) editorial

Here’s the problem nobody knows how bad or over leveraged things exactly are because there was little regulation.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.61% up
NASDQ -2.99% up
S&P500 -3.11% up
Russell2000- -3.44% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Worldwide stocks dropped in big, above average volume on fears of a credit meltdown in Europe. (See above) This, added to China and some other emerging markets pulling back on stimulus has driven all major indexes to yearly lows = Bearish

Jobs number Headlines -20,000 job losses in January (about what was expected) 9.7% Unemployment rate . Don’t understand how they got this number – down -0.3 % and not seeing job creation).  Seems implausible. They did a yearly revaluation. Basically this is good news for stocks .

Significant indexes

  • McClellan Index fell to -70.88 = Oversold. How low or oversold can markets get before rebounding. We did reach @-93 about 3 days ago, about @-115 last November & @ -130 back in the fall of 2008.
  • BDI – This chart shows the Baltic Dry Index (scroll down) , a measure of shipping costs, Has broken through a major month long  support level at @ 3000 .  Yesterday the BDI rose +12 at 2685.

Analysis Oversold conditions means we are closer to a buy than a sell. Two major questions.

  • Is this correction going to grow? Technically the answer seems to be yes . The charts are showing now 4 major down days in big volume. We are at yearly lows and the McClellan Oscillator is at -71. 3 trading days ago we hit -93 and the markets were at a higher low. All this is Bearish but oversold markets are when to buy.
  • How to play the dip When everyone else sells you buy. The bigger the dip the better your chances. Of course this works best for a short term trader, who is willing to buy the dip and sell a few days/week later.  The more a longer term investor is in cash- the more its time to nibble.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends – will try to update last few weeks today) – These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Here’s stocks YOU suggested  to add to the Watch List. – Will try to analyze stocks over weekend.
GS, JPM, CSCO, SHOO, ICON, SOA, ALF, VSEC, BIDU VPRT

ETF’s -  6% of portfolio FXI (China), 5% EWZ (Brazil), & 10% MOO (Agriculture) -  Total 21% invested. Sold 1/2 position or 5% of portfolio of EWZ yesterday at $65.1 . This was bought at $52.8 back in July. A +23% gain

I will be adding to positions (hopefully long term) today, hopefully in a dip.

The strategy Buy a position in an oversold market and sell 1/2 of it when it gains 5 to 10% and let the rest ride.  The position should take into account major trends that you understand. For me China, Emerging Markets and Brazil still fit the bill. However there are concerns about a long term US/China trade war. Also any of the ETF’s that do 2 & 3 X what the major US indexes do.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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January 4, 2010

2010 Forecasts & Fat Butts

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Fat-chair2

A Fat Butt from Google (see below)

2010 Economic and Stock Forecasts

To make an overall forecast let’s look at the past decade and year & the mega trends So here’s the Good, the Bad, the Ugly.

The Good

  • Emerging Markets The regulated capitalist economics of emerging markets have exploded over the last decade. This is primarily due to globalization. But countries with abundant natural resources are also benefiting. From India to China, one generation worked 15 hour days in a rice paddy and the next were computer programmers. In fact many of these countries never even entered a recession in 2008 & 2009. Globalization has positively impacted billions of these people.
  • European Union -  We used to be thought of as the melting pot, but this collection of countries and cultures now has the world’s #1 GDP.  Their tax rate is higher than ours  example Denmark @ 45% vs @US 37% – ugh) but they have great social services (example health care), live longer, less infant mortality, better health, @20% the crime rate, @ 20% the murder rate, no huge upcoming Medicare, Social Security or Deficit crisis. They are not perpetually fear mongered as in the USA and do not have an 200% increase in weapons budget (as we have had in last decade) to look forward to
  • Free Markets are NOT self correcting – Perhaps this lesson has NOT been learned in the USA, but it has made an impact in the rest of the world . The bubble and bust stock/sector/country cycle of unregulated capitalism (“free markets”) has had a demonstrable and extremely negative impact when the tech, housing, & financial bubbles burst. The blind unregulated  pursuit of capitalist greed simply does NOT work. The Dow started the decade at 11,000 and ended at 10,500. Nobel Prize winner -  Joe Stiglitz lessons
  • Economic Meltdown Averted – We stood on the edge of the cliff in 2008 and, at least for now, a catastrophic economic meltdown has been averted. Yes, many of the same individuals who helped cause the crisis also helped avert it.  Yes, government, that usually was a safety net for the poor, elderly was used to help the rich shadow financial institutions. Yes, government stimulus worked, but the deficit grew.  The rich have taken money from the working poor and the average taxpayer, but we all survived an economic collapse.

Coming up tomorrow the Bad and the Ugly

New Years Resolution


See full size image

The Huffington  Post blog has come up with a great new years resolution - Why not put your money in your local community bank instead of those huge financial shadow institutions that created the economic meltdown? Your local bank is FDIC insured for $250,000 and their GREED did NOT cause the financial meltdown. Stop crying, whining and getting angry, but sitting on your butt (hopefully smaller) – Do something – invest in your community bank

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.14% down
NASDQ -0.97% up
S&P500 -1.00% flat
Russell2000- -1.27% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and most major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Most Sections of blog have been revised (or are under construction for 2010) See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes

US markets got toasted in the last 1/2 hour of trading for the year.  Volume was again very light. McClellan Index at -1.62 = NEUTRAL

Friday’s monthly  jobs number is the major known economic event of the week. More and more analyst see a V shaped recovery.  While this, on the surface, is positive you start to worry about too many experts being bullish.

FEARLESS FORECAST FOR WEEK – A very good jobs number might actually be bad for stocks on Friday. It would set off fears that higher interest rates would happen sooner rather than later. Stocks usually do poorly when interest rates rise. Simply, potential investors see rising rates as a better investment the higher they go than stocks. Weak volume offers no clue to market direction, but the McClellan is headed lower -  so forecast – Up at start of week and decline at end. = FLAT Week

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Sold all of UWM for +2% gain at years end

Coming soon – Results for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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