Heroes

Part 1

Egyptians Protesting for Democracy

Time magazine Person of the year was the protestor. The world exploded in protest from the bloody cities of Syria to the pillars of Wall Street.

The protestors - From the Arab Spring protestors in bloody Syria to those that Occupy Wall Street have had the courage to fight for what they believe in.

The Time Magazine Story is  deserves your attention.

Investors411 will spend this week on the Individual Heros who have acted to make a difference.

To be continued

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Young Americans

Charlie Brown Cartoon

Statistic

America’s Future - Nearly 1/3 of  Young Americans have been arrested for a crime other than a traffic violation. LINK

So when young Americans protest that they are being shut out of what was the American Dream, our media focuses on their behavior instead of their message and tries to tear down their OWS movement.

Pressure’s building, you can continue to sit watch the tube or do something to to give these kids a chance at success.

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Mr. Dysfunctional

Government

Republican Speaker of House John Boehner

The Senate passed a continuation of the Payroll Tax cut with a the added provision including building of the Keystone Pipeline.

It passed Overwhelmingly 89 to 10

Nobody was happy, but finally Republicans and Democrats were working together.

Not so when it Came to the House of Representatives which has a strong never compromise, our fellow Americans are the enemy, ideologue right wing Republican contingent. The Republicans who , under Boehner, control the House refuse to bring up the bill for a vote.

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They’re Baaack

Neocons

The use of Brute Force & endless wars is the only solution

You might think Mitt Romney’s words in Presidential Debates are just rhetoric – Romney – “Taking China in front of the world court on day 1, Doubling the size of the US navy, and  adding 100,000 troops” is just vintage fear mongering for votes.

The USA already spends six times what China does on weapons.

Romney is sending a less than subtle message to every military contractor out there to flood my campaign with undisclosed cash (his PAC’s) and together we can fear monger America into a war with China (trade or military)

This is just what we did with Iraq.

As Yogi Berra says- Deja Vu all over again.

Remember what happened when Obama’s campaign got flooded with Wall Street/Shadow Banker’s $$$ – Reforms of too big to fail bank turned out to be almost non existent.

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STOCKS

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Every time Italian bond yields rocket there is a mysterious buyer that comes in and buys all the high yield bonds. Investors411 believes this is the Fed and allies(through proxies) who drive down the rates. This AM was yet another test…

Libertarians and Solutions

Ron Paul/Libertarian

There will be more tests on the 10 year Italian bond.

Libertarian blog Zero Hedge goes into its usual panic today about Fed injecting $$$ into Europe and deressing the Italian bond yield.

Libertarians (Ron Paul) have claimed the sky was falling more times than Chicken Little. This site does some good research, but should be taken with a block of salt.

If they were right the inflation rate would now be a multiplicative amount higher years ago. Their end goal is a gold standard that would send us spiraling into a depression. But they do understand the to big to fail shadow bank problem.

A far  superior solution to our crony capitalism is to enact laws (regulations) and police (regulators) to enforce a just system of capitalism that does not privatize gains for a few and socialize risk for many working individuals.

John Boehner

Take No Prisoners

Our political structure has devolved into a take no prisoners style of government.  Compromise has become a dirty word and threats of financial armageddon will soon becoming reality.

Ezra Klein (Bloomberg & Washington Post) has a comprehensive look at John Boehner’s (Republican House leader) demands over the debt ceiling.  This is obviously influenced by the Tea Party’s growing domination of the Republican Party. The Democrat’s too seem only be out to score political points.

Klein’s name is linked to the article and I stronly urge you look at it.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.60%	up
NASDQ	+1.01%	up
S&P 500	+0.81%	up
Russell 2000	+1.56%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell again yesterday -0.17% The dollar has challenged its falling 50 day day moving average/strong resistance level and failed to overcome this barrier for the last three days.  A short term rebound earlier was bullish, but now the bears are regaining some momentum. Long term trend still bearish, but no clear direction exists until the 50 DMA or the old low is broken. (see link to chart) = Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo on   rose to +32.00. We are approaching oversold. Last two highs of between 50 and 45 gives us a day or two(depending on gains) left to the rally. = Neutral

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Dividends

Part 2

The following are the sexy, high octane , high risk dividend plays. The criteria for the selection of all dividend stocks was announced Monday.

Most of the group below are in some was involved in trading derivatives. They may use black box trading techniques and/or be high frequency traders.

Disclaimer - I own the two stocks mentioned below. You might want to own one of their competitors. Do your own research

NLY – Annaly Capital Management. Dividend 13.82% per year last quarter.

What they do – “We are primarily engaged in the business of investing, on a leveraged basis, in mortgage pass-through certificates, CMOs and other mortgage-backed securities representing interests in or obligations backed by pools of mortgage loans issued or guaranteed by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae.”

NLY, I believe, is the biggest firm of this group. Market cap = 14.4 billion. Others competitors and similar high yield dividend plays are smaller.  JS points out in the comments section that NLY is a favorite stock of Jim Cramer.  The dividend for the stock 0.60 per share 8 quarters ago and reached a high of .75 six quarters ago and  the latest quarter was .62.

AGNC – American Capital Agency. Dividend 18.78% per year last quarter

AGNY is a 3 year old company. Market cap $1.9 billion.  It rose to a hight of $1.50 dollar per share dividend  two years ago and has had what seems like a too good to be true steady 1.40 dollars per share dividend for the last 7 quarters.

Competition – You may find the following companies more desirable after you do the research.  HTS, MFA, IVR, CYS (the last has the highest dividend payout) There are others in this group.

Reasons for holding – The government has weak regulations on the derivative markets and it does not look like any changes are coming in the future.  These are risky plays and NLY is now trading at 18, but did reach a low of @ 11 in 2006 and 2009. (See link to chart) From late June of 2008 to late May of 2009 the dividend of NLY was a relative steady 0.50 to 0.55%. So NLY during the financial meltdown had a steady return.

More on dividend stocks ASAP – Next the anchors – or the dividend stocks you may hold through tick and thin.

Caution – all dividend stocks are vulnerable to run away inflation.

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Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves – MO has been an amazing accurate forecasting tool for the past year.  It saying we are getting near a technical top (See above)

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD. I also own NLY and AGNC mentioned above

• REMX is going to take a hit today. The #4 stock in its portfolio MCP had a bad earnings report and was down 12% in after hours trading. This will probably drag REMX down below its 50DMA. I will lighten my position here (at a loss) if there is no rebound by the end of the day.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Killing Ants With

Republican Leadership

Popeye in Comments section of blog states – John Boehner Republican and next [possible] speaker of the house called the pitifully weak shadow bank fat cat financial reform bill “KILLING AN ANT WITH A NUCLEAR WEAPON.” What plant is he on?

If the Tea Party Patriots and Republicans win the next election John Boehner will be Speaker of the House – This guy thinks, that financial crisis/reform is just an “ant” John McCain made light of the financial crisis before the election and it handed Obama the election. Boehner had the benefit of hindsight.

There is still at least one Republican who has not drunk the Tea Party Kool Aid – Senator Lindsey Grahram -To Tea Partiers in a meeting: “‘What do you want to do? You take back your country — and do what with it?’…Everybody went from being kind of hostile to just dead silent.”…you [TPP's] have no vision…you will die out.”

Bottom Line – As much as you and I disagree with what Obama is doing, the Republican alternative is far worse

Cheney/Bush Won

For years Investors411 has demonstrated US media bias. Latest proof of how Cheney/Bush fear mongering patriotism to a gullible supposedly liberal media (New Your Times & LA Times)working . This Harvard study on terminology proves it – Is water boarding torture?

• NYT -If other countries waterboarded it was called torture 85.5% of the time.
• NYT – If US waterboarded after 2004 it was called torture 1.6% of the time
• NYT – Before 2004 water boarding was called torture 81.5% of the time.

YOU are manipulated daily not only by content, but choice of words and stories the media uses. Even in the NYT

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.42%	down
NASDQ	-0.37%	down
S&P 500	-0.32%	down
Russell 2000	-078%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Mantra for week - “ Any analysis of stocks has become an analysis of what the ”Black Boxes” of  huge institutions with their high frequency trades & computer algorithms are doing.” They make up 80% of trading and right now the huge currency markets are dictating their moves.”

Clash of the Titans

Gravity/Fundamentals.

The Black Boxes got overwhelmed by gravity or market fundamentals. So has the month long inverse relationship between the dollar and US stocks. We’ve seen a lot of non black box investors panic and take their $ out of stocks this week. Bad fundamental economic news finally is trumping everything else (see yesterday’s Investors 411 for reasons)

The BDI going over a cliff (-44% see below) is further indications of economic meltdown.

Technicals – Two times in the last two days the Dow has dipped 100+ points (-152 yesterday) only to recover most of those losses. S&P down 8 of last 9 days is certainly another indication that stocks are oversold. Another is obviously the MO. It went below -60 interday (oversold territory) in the 100+ point declines – then recovered.

This is the kind of day investors hate, but short term traders love = VOLATILITY

The bulls titan has a meltdown in the dollar, an oversold market, and knowledge that large dips are getting bought.

The bears titan has a week of horrible fundamentals worldwide & the BDI. Also, Bond traders are running wild. (sorry for lack of explanation here – takes too long – but its bad for stocks)

Icing on the Cake – The Monthly Jobs Report.

The jobs report comes out this AM and anything unexpected could create wild fluctuations. Remember the jobs report is very significant to the long term economic well being of the USA, but it matters far less to the US stock market.

The JUNE Jobs Report Headlines - -9.5% Unemployed vs -9.7 in May = +0.2%, Private sector jobs up +83,000 vs +33,000 in May.

Basicaly in line or a slight positive surprise. This data does not say armegeddon, but you need +200,000 a month to ofset population growth and lower unemployment long term. Stock futures initially moved higher, but are now flat.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell a we bit to -52.19 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. In May the MO reached two lows – one at -120 and the other close to -130. Therefore, potential for more downside risk. = Still NEUTRAL, but almost oversold
• US Dollar –  The dollar fell an unheard of -1.75% yesterday [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] This is the single largest move in the dollar in the last 6 months probably a lot longer. The support level was more than broken it was devastated Mantra - right now is very important Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. Yesterday stocks and dollar going down together. – A Total Disconnect - Stocks indexes should have soared – up 2 to 4% on this news.  = Bullish
• BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish. Also good proxy of China) BDI is in free fall from a high of @4200 to  2351 yesterday.( This is a huge -44% drop in 6 weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Here’s a week+ old chart of BDI showing broken support levels. The BDI fell -2.29% Rate of decline increasing as it nears support level =Bearish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekends

Have not yet had a chance to Update over last 2 weekend but there are NO positions held at this time.

Short term Traders - Would buy into any big move to downside, especially if dollar is falling. Use ETF’s that go long 2 & 3 times indexes.

Investors willing to take big risks – Remember The long term outlook is still Cautiously BEARISH.

A significant fall near the end of the session could be a chance for a small nibble. Technically what’s setting up is probably a bear market rally. Realize this may only be a short term trade that you sell 1/2 on only a 5% gains and you should set a stop/loss on trade.

Long Term Outlook =CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING