Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
December 14, 2011

Jonas Salk’s Gift

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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Jonas Salk’s Gift


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Yankee Bob (Conclusion from Monday’s Editorial)


It was easier in the 60′s. The End the war hippy dippy back to the earth  Counter culture became the dominant narrative.

The counterculture said to popular culture’ Hey, your institutions told me to love one another, how can you send me around the world to kill people I have no quarrel with? How can you send me to kill yellow or brown people in the name of freedom and liberty and then discriminate against people of color  at home ??? Counter culture simply held the mirror up to society’s face and cried

“Hypocrisy”.

We have to do that again! Society has to function for the greater good of many not just for the greed of a few. There is no doubt about the need for social change and social justice. There is no doubt that our political institutions are dominated by greedy corporate interests. Change will have to come from the ground up and not imposed from the top down.

We are many. The greedy are few. I hope. Can you imagine someone tomorrow announcing that they have a cure for HIV and AIDS and that they are making a gift of it to the world?? The  Talmud commands that we not shall stand idle our neighbors blood or suffering.

Our leaders like Obama are disappointing. Our Religious Institutions are too busy worrying about Gays and defending their pedophiles to be a force for social justice.

I think we have to organize from the ground up. Unions probably offer an effective vanguard for social justice. The Occupy Movement does too  in the sense that at least it is a demand for social justice.

Yankee Bob

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STOCKS

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Europe still has Significant Influence over US Stocks

Depressing Paul Krugman Editorial on Europe & Depression


Economic Overview


Economically we have a broken opaque worldwide shadow financial system.

No surprise conclusion for Investors411 readers.

When you look out over years this system is unsustainable. We face a very real rise in increased nationalism and trade wars. Any significant disintegration of  the European Union would be a disaster, as would a trade war with China. These are both very possible realities.

The world is running on etherial money – Credit Default Swaps/Derivatives (“Financial WMD’s” – Warren Buffett) Over leveraged, thinly regulated shadow banks proliferate.

Politicians are like magicians who divert you from the reality of what’s happening. Our too big to fail financial system is broken. Our formerly democratic government has become a tool for major corporations to privatize the profits for themselves and socialize the risk to the vanishing  individual middle class taxpayers. (see yesterday’s George Norboe editorial for more)


Company Profits vs Taxes Paid vs Lobbyists Paid

[See latest chart below]


Short term major companies are sitting on a mountain of cash to prop up their stock prices. The Fed is manipulating behind the curtain using its printing press to keep world economies afloat. It works for now, especially for the larger companies and stock prices.

The BUT is sooner or later you run out of fingers to put in the leaking dike.


SOURCE


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Strong correlation between Europe and US stock opening price

Germany’s DAX down 0.72% at 6:15 AM EST

DAX down 0.90% at 8:50    AM EST

Even better indicator is the Italian 10 year bond Price. Italy is the biggest European country in trouble and a yield of 7.0% has forced other European countries into “controlled bankruptcies.”

Italian 10 year bond up slightly at 6.69% at 6:20 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell  to -36.02 . 50DMA at +11.59 = NEUTRAL/bullish

The S&P 500′s 200 DMA is proving to be a strong resistance level for US equities.

Technically, the resistance level of the S&P has held and the bulls are in retreat. Fundamentally, the Fed announcement yesterday offered no new public help. Both signs are BEARISH

Shorter term Outlook (week)

  • The Santa Clause/end of year selling pressure will have a positive impact. – Maybe NOT positive enough to turn stocks.
  • Key technical guide, and it has been very accurate throughout this cycle, is the MO
  • We have just started to enter moderately oversold territory (-30) We hit @-140 in early Aug & @-105 in late Nov.
  • Therefore,  there is a ways to go ( -36 to -105 = 69 points) before  we get any kind of solid reversal area.

So not expecting any technical help in the short term. Any reversal is going to have to come from some major change in fundamentals.

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Paul’s Corner

3.24% YSL 7 vs. 2.56% S&P 500

Wow a nasty sell off into the close yesterday. As Ron Brown suggested in his morning report this is a very risky market. Most of the YSL 7 stocks are performing well, even in the daily market yo-yo actions. The following chart shows current group performance.

Chart Link:

SIMO was recently added to the Nasdaq 400 and 500.

LINK

Ron Brown HGSI had a great Weekend Report this past Saturday where he discussed Wolf Packs of stocks, i.e. stocks tend to run in groups and how to find them.

LINK

FTK has done well these past few weeks and it has approximately 6 days of short interest. Will you enjoy the short squeeze?

Jeffrey Scott, an HGSI user, had a great webinar last Wednesday evening. He gave a cooks tour of using HGSI and the ferreted out some great stocks.  The webinar is available for download. If you have ever wondered what HGSI can do, this video will show you.

LINK

The file is a zip file and includes the video and the power points. It’s a big file and you need high speed access.

Quite a few buy the dip opportunities these past few days giving a chance to ease into positions. Please review our Buy the Dip guidelines:

LINK

This is still a risky market to trade, please keep it in mind.

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Current Positions

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Strategy – Buy the Dip of trending sector/stock

Paul’s tutorial on Buying the Dip

Your Stock List #7 [YSL #7] is out and Paul has been updating it in the comment section of the blog. – Some excellent choices here.

SSO - (ETF that is @ 2X long the S&P 500) Bought, on dip at 46.20. A 5% stop loss order on this stock. Sadly our -5% stop/loss order was hit yesterday at 44.90. Sold for -5% loss

USO - (Oil ETF and UCO 2x oil) under consideration on dips.

All of Your Stock List #7 with links to charts may now be found  in the Positions Section of blog. (Scroll down)

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months

Fundamentals behind the LTO -

The Fed has seemingly committed to do whatever it takes to hold things together, from US equities to the European Union. Over the last few years our Fed has been a successful major manipulator of US equities -higher. Working with allies it is attempting to do the same on a global scale.

The Fed’s manipulations do NOT fix the root cause of our over leveraged opaque financial system. They, at best, offer a temporary solution to keep stocks afloat.

Basic fundamental is still Don’t Fight the Fed. However, the Fed’s actions/manipulations are often not transparent. So when the the public announcement after the Fed meeting shows no change markets get spooked. Therefore downgrade to

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NEUTRAL

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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December 12, 2011

The Age of Greed

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

The Age of Greed


Dr Jonas Salk

By Yankee Bob


Back in our youth their was a very real threat to our well being from Polio. Polio was, as you know, a major killer and a debilitating disease that could have stricken any of  us at any time. Research money poured in to find the cure.

Dr. Jonas Salk did find the cure for this disease that was a bigger deal back in the 50′s then AIDS is now. Why do I mention it? Dr Salk found the cure for this major health problem and he donated it to the world as a simple act of human kindness. He felt his salary as a researcher and teacher was enough for him.

The man that could have made millions maybe even billions from his break thru did ...gave it to the world as a gift.

Can you see this happening today in this age of greed.????

Corporations are busy patenting all their research on human and plant genes. Break thrus and treatments will not be given away. This is an age of greed. Greed institutionalized by corporations. Society be damned! Corporate greed overrides human need and the political system has been overtaken from this greed.

The immediate problem is how to change the ethics when corporations have a choke hold on media. The telling of the narrative,the very image of reality presented by corporate media has to be challenged and changed…

Conclusion Tomorrow

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Great  Videos

Several of you have recently sent in some videos that are Just plane fun, have some significance or both. Keep them coming. Here’s a couple that you all will enjoy.


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STOCKS

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Europe still has Significant Influence over US Stocks


Although there are some significant analysts out their like Jim Cramer (ex Goldman Sachs executive) who believe that we got some short term stability out of the European Summit and the US should be focused on what happens here this week. The other side has a good longer term argument, despite Friday’s rally.

Friday’s low volume rally is typical of the manipulated markets we saw as our Fed flooded the USA with liquidity (QE #1, QE #2 and other less transparent measures)

The longer term problem lies in the enforced austerity of poorer European countries which is sold as they pay or the richer countries taxpayers will pay. It’s a problem is imbedded in the German and the worldwide Bankster financial system that allows phony capitalism and those troubled European bonds to bring financial Armageddon.

Remember, just like in 2008, the now threatened bonds were bought because they could be repackaged and sold as derivatives, This over leveraging in an opaque CDS system (CDS = Warren Buffet’s term Weapons of Financial Destruction) still thrives.

There are several decent editorial out there. A solid editorial by Mohamed El Erian LINK. The best I found was from The Atlantic and it may make your eyes glass over, because its technical – Here’s the LINK and here’s the money line in  Clive Crook’s editorial.

Germany’s demands are bad finance, bad fiscal policy, and bad constitutional design. You don’t fix this mess by ruling out forceful action until closer integration has been achieved. You don’t repair Europe’s underlying political dysfunction by increasing the distance between government and governed.

Bottom Line - Investors411 does NOT see as rosy picture as Cramer presents.

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Strong correlation between Europe and US stock opening price

Germany’s DAX down 1.81% at 6:15 AM EST

DAX down - 1.96% at 8:22 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell slightly to +16,80. 50DMA at +11.22 = NEUTRAL

The S&P 500′s 200 DMA is proving to be a strong resistance level for US equities.

See chart at right top of blog. We have failed to significantly crack this level for 5 days. The longer we fail to crack this level significantly, the stronger it gets. We are back just below breakout levels.

Market cheerleaders are hyping that the Italian short term bond rate today fell below 6% (7% is danger level)

  • News from Europe is still a trump card.
  • Other big event of week is the Fed meets this week.

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Current Positions

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Strategy – Buy the Dip of trending sector/stock

Paul’s tutorial on Buying the Dip

Your Stock List #7 [YSL #7] is out and Paul has been updating it in the comment section of the blog. – Some excellent choices here.

SSO - (ETF that is @ 2X long the S&P 500) Bought, on dip at 46.20. A 5% stop loss order on this stock.

USO - (Oil ETF and UCO 2x oil) under consideration on dips.

All of Your Stock List #7 with links to charts may now be found  in the Positions Section of blog. (Scroll down)


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Longer Term Outlook

3 months

Fundamentals behind the LTO -

The Fed has seemingly committed to do whatever it takes to hold things together. From US equities to the European Union. Over the last few years our Fed has been a successful major manipulator of US equities -higher. Working with allies it is attempting to do the same on a global scale.

The Fed’s manipulations do NOT fix the root cause of our over leveraged opaque financial system. They, at best, offer a temporary solution to keep stocks afloat.

The Fed’s manipulations are also less transparent then before (example QE #1 & 2). Therefore market direction is that much more difficult to call. The CAUTIOUSLY BULISH Outlook is hanging on by the skin of its teeth -

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CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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NB – The LTO has been reduced to 3 months. Even 3 months is a stretch. Basic fundamental is Don’t Fight the Fed.But the Fed’s actions/manipulations are not transparent.

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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