Crew Team Assign

3:45 AM

This morning at 3:45 AM I dropped my wife off for the 3 day 60 mile Susan G Komen the Cancer  Cure. Thousands will be joining her. At least once a year Investors411 encourages its friends to donate to a worth cause.  Ours has been Cancer research.

So far Joyce as raised  $1,699 & her goal is $2,300. Outside of having children she feels this is this most important thing she has ever done. Some of you have already donated and if you’d like to donate see JOYCE’s Page On the right you’ll find the box to click on to donate.

“The Stupid Cancer Show”

My daughter Katie, a breast cancer survivor, has been raising funds and crusading for cancer survivors for years. Listen to her speak on the The Stupid Cancer Show this Monday 7/26 LIVE 9PM ET/6 PM PT to share her story and talk about cancer!

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary


Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.99% up
NASDQ +2.68% down
S&P 500 +2.25% down
Russell 2000 +3.73% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

The Black Box/High Frequency Traders took US equities significantly higher in average volume. Typical rally day for stocks dominated by BB/HFT.

Yesterday UPS (+5.23%) announced results and many analysts saw the giant package delivery company as a catalyst for the rally. The CEO was bubbling over about growth in emerging markets and hiring lots of new employees – you guess where – in CHINA.

MSFT was up 2.87% yesterday & 0.23%

Big news – European stress test (“whitewash”) on banks is due out today.

Proosta (see comments section) has come up with 20 of the top 100 high demand stocks yesterday.

Significant Indexes-

  • McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose dramatically to +58.08 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. = Almost Overbought or bearish
  • US Dollar –  The dollar  fell a significant -0.94% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] The dollar/stocks relationship is strong – Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The Black Box traders, have used the inverse relationship of the dollar as a key part of their trading system. Despite big fall yesterday still within trading range = Neutral
  • BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish. Also, good proxy of China.) BDI was in free fall from a high of @4200 to 1700 . This is a huge-60% drop in 8 weeks is very bearish Often a leading indicator for stocks. Here’s a 3 year chart of BDI for context. The BDI has staged a 5 day rally and is at 1801 = bullish

Reading Tea Leaves-

All it took was a day and we are back on the cusp of the MO being overbought. Since the BDI has turned positive I’d be just a little more cautious about using short ETF’s too early. But, its clearly time to think about using those ETF’s that short major indexes. Click on POSITION at top of blog for more info.

The MO has not been above 80 since the big spring rally in April of 2009 – then it reached @ 105. In early Jan. of 2009 it did reach 120.


The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Updated over weekends Investors411 holds ONE position in SH at this time

Strategy – From yesterday - The same as before - If/as US major indexes become more overbought the more ETF’s that sort the market will be purchased. Starting out with SH. Then the higher above 60 the MO goes, the more SDS (200% short the S&P 500) and other even 300% short ETF’s will be used the higher the MO goes.  See POSITIONS section at top of blog for more.

Usually about a 100 point rally on the Dow translates into @ a 15+ points higher in the MO.  That would get us to about +73 on the MO today. A good place to do a little stock fishing.

Personally, this time will probably start with SDS (200% short the S&P 500)  Will add even more short ETF’s if/when MO goes above 75/80

When you buy any position its important you know when you are going to sell. In the case of SDS there will be a 5% stop/loss. If I make $ – 50% of SDS will be sold for a 5% gain and the stop loss will be moved lower as gains progress.

N.B - The following will seem contrarian to the investment strategy, but if the benchmark S&P 500 breaks out and closes above resistance level of 1100 & 1106 (109.44 high of early last week & 1105.67 an earlier high) the Long Term Outlook will change to NEUTRAL There are two more resistance levels above that, so bulls are going to have to make quite a charge to break out.


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