Investors 411 Blog

Will Any of YOU Defend Obama?

huffington post phot

Check out the last 4 comments on the right side of the Blog starting with Bob Sadinsky’s – “Republican Lite” Besides someone else would have done worse (McCain & Palin) is there anyone out there who will sing Obama’s praise?

D. pointed out Tom Friedman’s we need nation building at home not Afghanistan  -  LINK Popeye does damn with faint praise – Afghanistan speech was a brilliant political move for Obama & Abby Gold reminds us what’s happened in Afghanistan to invaders for the last 100 years.

One of you privately sent me an email of someone very significant who praised Obama on Afghanistan – Mike Huckabee LINK Huckabee was the leading Republican candidate for president. Unfortunately, he’s toast as a candidate. He granted clemency to the guy who killed the 4 cops sitting in a Washington cafe.

Huckabee might not have  been your political cup of tea, but he was a decent guy who, like Obama made overtures to fellow American’s who disagreed with him. The Republican’s leading alternative is probably Sarah Palin – God help us.

So here’s some Obama good news from me besides he gives eloquent speeches – Bank of America is repaying $45 billion of its TARP loan with interest, the economy is clearly stronger as measured by GDP (in part due to stimulus package) and the rate of job loss is declining.

Remember Larry Wilkerson’s words from yesterday’s Update -

“If you are a praying person, he {Obama} needs your prayers and support. If you are not, he needs your support. Because all of us Americans put him where he is–and I do not mean by votes. We–all of us–let George W. Bush and Richard B. Cheney set us up. Moreover, we all contributed to creating the perilous fiscal state that is now a more dangerous threat to our country than any terrorist could ever hope to be”

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	-0.18%	down
NASDQ	+0.42%	down
S&P500	+0.03%	down
Russell2000	+1.17%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar rose a modest +0.34% and this seemed to keep a lid on a growing desire for stocks to rally.  Were in December so I guess you can call it a Santa Clause rally led by internet retailers like recommended AMZN (at new high)

Bernanke’s confirmation hearing goes in front of congress today. No matter what you feel about the guy, if he does not get confirmed it will hurt stocks.

Jobs # for November on Friday.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI rose +82 points yesterday and closed at 3836. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1700 points since late September. After 16 up days in a row, 9 down days in a row & down through the former resistance/now support level 0f 4291 . This is a chart that usually gives off signals – the rate of decline was slowing and yesterday turned.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets. Recent price drop-Nothing to panic about yet

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose  +0.30% yesterday . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant  The dollar closed at $74.64 . 

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +25.24 This is a slightly Overbought Position . This chart is showing we seemed to have reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month,. Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

This section need to be updated – Sold 8% (24 to 16 % position in portfolio) of FXI and all of DGP. Taking profits was a mistake and bought back all of DGP (Double gold) & 1/2 of FXI.  This all happened because yours truly got spooked over the Dubai crisis.

Recommended ETF’s

Gold (GLD & DGP) – (recommended positions) is also at a new high. Warning – this ETF is starting to go parabolic (up too far too fast) Perhaps we have reached the top of the parabola. If  we have another day or two of volume increase and major price move (above 1%) we will probably get at least a short term hit. Long term holders – the fundamentals are still good. Traders and shorter term investors keep a close on this growing parabola. Time to take some profits – now or in next few days (depending on escalation of price & volume)  Sell into the parabola

MOO – Our new agriculture ETF is also at a new yearly high and on a breakout run.  Each of the recommended ETF (except anything that is 2x or 3x a sector or country) is hopefully a long term position.  This stock is fundamentally aided by the growing middle classes of India and China eating better and a falling dollar.

EWZ (Brazil) – Again at a new high.

FXI – Overall excellent for the year, but lagging right now and within a few percentage points of new high,

NVS -(A stock, not an ETF) Our swine flu play – we had a nice run with this stock now up over 20% – It is a solid company, but it was mainly a swine flu play.  Our town is getting out shots on the 7th.   We already took 1/2 the profits on NVS and will take the rest in any slight rally. The scare is diminishing. This stock had a big volume decline yesterday. Looks like the momentum players are heading for the exits.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Obama at West Point

Most Eloquent Speech vs Horribly Flawed Strategy.

• The  center of terrorism is NOT Afghanistan, but anywhere there is an apartment, cave, pick up truck with a committed individual – A fanatic with a gun/explosive, cell phone,computer and money. Examples – Fort Hood, Oklahoma City, & Pakistan
  
• The generals who dictated this strategy are extremely happy. McChrystal “The Afghanistan-Pakistan review led by the President has provided me with a clear military mission and the resources to accomplish our task.” LINK
  
• Vintage Bush fear mongering of WMD’s at end of Obama speech on the nuclear weapons in Pakistan. Yes, difference is these are real WMD’s in Pakistan, but is the Obama/McChrystal strategy the answer. Dawn is the largest English speaking daily in Pakistan (relatively pro USA) Here’s what their readers say LINK
• Top 10 reasons Obama plan could fail by mid east expert Professor Juan Cole – LINK
• Rationale for the 3rd surge in Afghanistan is based on unrealistic concept of success of surge and success in Iraq. (see past updates – more later) What’s needed here is a standard business cost/benefit analysis
• We took out the Taliban in 7 weeks with a few thousand (guesstimate) American boots on the ground in 2001. Why is the situation so much more dire now? (see above on Iraq for partial answer)
  

Larry Wilkerson , former chief of staff to Sec. of State General Powell has the best summation in his Damed if you do Damed if you don’t editorial LINK

“If you are a praying person, he {Obama} needs your prayers and support. If you are not, he needs your support. Because all of us Americans put him where he is–and I do not mean by votes.

We–all of us–let George W. Bush and Richard B. Cheney set us up. Moreover, we all contributed to creating the perilous fiscal state that is now a more dangerous threat to our country than any terrorist could ever hope to be”

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	+1.23%	up
NASDQ	+01.46%	up
S&P500	+1.12%	up
Russell2000	+1.63%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Volume was up a wee bit and the NASDQ actually hit average volume (50 day Moving Average).  So volume really did NOT confirm the price move. But volume is NO longer the #1 confirmation or forecasting factor of a price move - The Dollar is. – It fell over -0.50% and, therefore, stocks had a significant price rally Significant = basically +/-  1.00% for major indexes)

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI fell -61 points yesterday and closed at 3836. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1700 points since late September. After 16 up days in a row, now, 9 down days in a row & down through the former resistance/now support level 0f 4291 . Rate of decline seems to be slowing .

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets. Recent price drop-Nothing to panic about yet

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar fell a significant -0.53% yesterday . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant  The dollar closed at $74.41 . 

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +13.70 This is a slightly Overbought Position . This chart is showing we seemed to have reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month,. Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Best recommendation – It’s time to buy some protection. Iran , lost a 25 to 3 vote in the UN regarding their desire to achieve nuclear weapons or nuclear power (if you trust Ahmadinejad believe the later) The chances Israel or the USA will attack is growing. Obama committing more troops to Afghanistan further surrounds Iran. The price of oil will skyrocket if therethere is an attack.

Some other terrorist event may occur over oil.

So, on dips, buy the commodity oil. I have to check this out further, but the appropriate commodity (not company based) ETF’s seem to be USO & OLO (OLO does 2x what oil does) The later is very thinly traded. Going to work up to 10% of portfolio.

Your comments (Monitor) – Be happy with 22% position in GLD . Activision – Good story behind this game producers – each time they produce a better sequel to a hit game their revenues grow. Might wait till ACTI breaks out of consolidation trend and/or market gets oversold. MOO – need more time, but will get to more analysis.

Bought back DGP at 31.70

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

What’s Up? – Cheney – Truth Serum – Exposing the “Sith” Lord – Darth Cheney; 4 overlooked facts; Col Wilkerson on the “Sith” Lord; Torture; Friday Funnies: Summer doldrums come early to US stock markets; Reading the Tea Leaves

Darth Cheney -Truth Serum 

• More Americans were killed by terrorists under his administration than any other.
• “American Don’t Torture” was at least as big a lie as Clinton’s “I didn’t have sex with that women.”
• Cheney /Bush authorized a massive torture system that include torture to find fictitious WMD’s in Iraq.
• The Cheney/Bush torture program was the (or a) major reason Islamic terrorism has grown. (unjust invasion if Iraq other major cause)

The Abu Ghraib torture photos (early 2004) basally put an end to the massive torture and rendition program. Participants became too fearful of retribution. Therefore, since the beginning of 2004 mainland America has remained safe without a huge torture program. See Steve Clemons/Larry Wilkerson editorial on Cheney for more. 

Col. Wilkerson , Secretary Powell’s chief of staff, is horrified at the damage Limbaugh and the “Sith” Lord(from Star Wars) Cheney is doing to his Republican party. 

Friday Funnies 

In keeping with a new tradition – keeping Friday funny – here’s Darth Cheney, err, Darth Vader video of him conduction the star troopers orchestra

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	+0.56%	down
NASDQ	+1.04%	down
S&P500	+1.04%	down
Russell2000	+1.88%	-

-

“Capitalism Could Fail” is the headline story on CNBC this AM by noted bear Marc Faber

6 Insurance Companies got themselves over leveraged and will receive $22 billion in TARP $. WSJ story Insurance companies are a big part of the Shadow Banking system.

Technicals & Fundamentals

Prediction at beginning of week – Right now this looks like natural profit taking after a big run higher. I could develop into a reversal if volume increases. – Unless we have a major move higher we will end the week down.

Volume has dried up to a trickle. Looks like an ocean with no breeze. No breeze means no direction.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) after three down days rose (as predicted – see last two days) +3.34% in below average declining volume. Volume is NOT confirming the price move.

Taking your ownadvise – I did not buy FAS – as I urged short term day and swing traders – boy what a mistake. Would have made @10% and got out. 

With volume NOT confirming the price move – its hard to use XFL today as a short term forecast tool. But longer term bullish trend is still in place.

Market’s Major Mantra – Again If Shadow Banks go up – so will stocks. If Shadow banks go down so will stocks 

WTIC charts “Light Crude Oil”.(see chart) Notice after Oil hit a low @$37 a barrel in Feb. it rose to a range between $48 and $54 for over a month and over a month ago it broke out and two days ago reached a high of almost $60. 

Yesterday oil prices rose +0.76% to $59.42. The major resistance level is @$60 and a move above this would be bullish for stocks and bad for consumers. Summer driving season is around the corner and historically prices rise at this time.

BDI, The Baltic Dry Sea Index, that measures worldwide trade has reached a new high this year. The fact that prices to ship goods worldwide is moving higher is bullish for stocks.

Reading the Tea Leaves – Summer doldrums seem to have started early. The BDI & higher oil prices (secondary forecast tools) are both bullish. The overriding fundamental factor is Shadow Banks – So far they have pretty much got what they want from the Obama administration – Banks privatized gains and Taxpayers socializing losses. 

So after some more consolidation we’ll probably see a move higher. Of course unexpected news can change all this.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !