Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
August 22, 2011

Freedom Shouts

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Freedom Shouts

Libya Rebels Tripoli

Photo of Libyan Freedom Fighter – Huffington Post

“Libya will go down in history as the anti-Iraq.”

Comments from leaders around the world

Obviously an apparent victory for the Libyan people, the Arab Spring and Democracy.

Freedom from 41 years of dictatorial rule in Libya is at atipping point.” President Obama.

The rebels have reached the center of Tripoli (see blogger EW on right side of blog for links to streaming updates and other news.).Another major victory for the Arab Spring seems near as Gadhafi forces have seemingly crumbled after 7 months of battle

They’ve caught two of Gadhaffi’s son and a battle rages around Gadhaffi’s (there are a zillion ways to spell this guy’s name) compound. It isn’t over till the fat lady sings, but we have reached the tipping point.

Major points for USA

  • Libya - UN support. A true international coalition, No combat boots on the ground,  No American lives lost, A people’s revolution. Iraq - UN condemnation, Falsified intelligence, $ trillions in cost, Fear mongering, 10′s of thousands of American dead and wounded, Labeling American’s who protested the war as unpatriotic.
  • A major victory for Obama’s foreign policy.
  • A less imperialist foreign policy that gets results at a cost far less than far right’s fear mongering you’re either with us or against us.
  • Remember there is still a huge hunk of this country that believes all arabs are terrorists who hate freedom

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.57% big
NASDQ -1.62% big
S&P 500 -1.50% big
Russell 2000 -1.60% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Thursday’s meltdown technically confirmed by  Friday’s losses – Both in above average volume. Good news if you’re a bear. Bad news for bulls
  • US is just 2% away from joining Europe and much of the rest of the world’s Bear market. Definition of bear market is a 20% decline from highs. American markets, have their own problems, but Europe is certainly a ton of extra weight on the shoulders of the US and emerging markets.
  • Germany and wealthier Northern European countries are caught between a rock and a hard place. Bail out insolvent EU countries or leave the EU which would send their currency soaring and decimate their thriving exports. A lose lose situation.
  • Libya is great economic news because it means 2% of the world’s oil supply will be back on line. Libya produces sweet (translate – real high quality) crude oil. Since NATO is leading the charge in helping the Libyan rebels almost all European markets are up this AM.

  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -42.82 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold) Somewhat Oversold markets give the nod to the bulls. But we have not reached Oversold or OMG oversold. = Neutral/ Bullish
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Let’s see how far the apparent victory in Libya and a somewhat oversold bounce can take us. It can’t change – kicking the can down the road on European debt.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move.
  • The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has helped, but the European bear market is spreading worldwide.  Libyan rebels apparent victory will help stocks today. But like the Fed’s O% interest rates till mid 2013 – it can only go so far.
  • The Fed is the single strongest entity that can act to change the economic situation. On one side we have Republicans calling the Fed “treasonous” and “counterfitters” and on the other a falling stock market.
  • Reading Tea Leaves - I believe we need another 5 to 10% on the downside before the Fed will intervene more strongly (QE #3 or something else) Perhaps this will come at the end of the week when there’s a meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming. LINK

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits back at $157. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip.

If/when the MO low enough I will buy some YSL #5 stocks for our hypothetical portfolio

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also ow SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. Buying some more hedges (TZA) at open. For those that do options – I bought a November 19th call on GLD for $355 at 191.

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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June 10, 2011

The Barbell

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

The Barbell Economy

The latest sign of our vanishing middle class and our rich on one side and the poor on the other  side or the economic barbell comes from CBS - A record 30% of American’s are borrowing from their 401k’s

If congress  focuses on tightening money for the middle class instead of  tightening for the wealthy or the military this barbell will become so big and pronounced that even Mighty Mouse will not be able to lift it.

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Syria

There is a real and bloody reloution in Syria against its dictator. It deserves more coverage. The latest Here The latest on Libya Here

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.63% Down
NASDQ +0.35% Down
S&P 500 +0.74% Down
Russell 2000 +0.58% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Just maybe the old Nov to May pattern has returned. After all there is still 3 weeks left to the Fed’s QE #3. – Markets rose in very light volume. There was a big hunk of cash sitting at trading desks ($15 to 20 billion) thanks to Fed POMO program (QE #3) and our MO (-63) showed seriously oversold markets. It seems that the combo of Fed POMO and High Frequency Traders were responsible for almost all the trades yesterday.
  • Emerging Markets, especially China are the world’s hope for growth FXI is the ticker symbol for the ETF of 25 major Chinese stocks. Chart shows China  slightly down for the year and below its 200 day moving average. Its  sitting just above major support. Clearly bearish, but now holding that support matters more.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose  to -42.46. US Stocks are moderately oversold. (anything below -30 = moderately oversold) From yesterdayA “snapback” oversold rally is possible. Stocks still moderately oversold.
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Perhaps moderately oversold markets can push stocks higher in light volume, like seriously oversold conditions did yesterday. However the push higher was only moderate and almost 40% of it collapsed in the last  hour of trading. So far this looks like what they call a dead cat bounce.

  • Reading The Tea Leaves -. See May 20th blog for forecast for this summer.

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

SLV/AGQ (later is very roughly 2x silver and another possibility)  SLV Sold 1/2 for +3% profit. Have raised the stop/sell order on SLV to what it was bought for.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. (I realize most of you do not know how to do this or perhaps understand the following, but like The Critic I have bought insurance on NLY – a July put at $18. This cost me  a bit less than 2% of NLY’s value)

Caution – Owners of NLY should look at it chart. A 3 year history show that almost every time this stock and others like it get over extended there is a sharp one day high volume significant fall. Two major declines in the last six months and we are long overdue for the pattern to repeat itself. For prospective buyers after the dip is the time to buy.

TZA(3 times short small cap stocks) Bought 1/2 position in TZA (3x short small cap stocks) at 38.65 on Tuesday   Added another 1/2 position to TZA at 39.75 at/near open Wednesday.  Bought another 1/2 TZA position at 39.75 yesterday.

Will add another full or 1/2 TZA positions on any modest market rally.

RepeatTherefore Strategy is

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative) .
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own SLV, NLY, & TZA - I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply“We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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Paul’s Corner Extra!

Mediocre bounce yesterday with a significant sell  off at the close,  below average volume for the day gives me the thinking this “correction” ain’t done yet. Futures at down at 8 AM and world markets are mixed.

My favorite tool for daily analysis is the HGSI High Demand Search. Top high demand groups yesterday June 9 were the HMO’s, Drugs and 3rd were the fertilizer stocks which reacted to a bad corn crop report. Of course the various oil groups were loaded in the list. Missing were the typical stocks that lead a recovery, the tech and semi’s etc. Nasdaq small cap stocks were at the bottom of the Major Market list.

Looks like a ho hum day coming and sounds like a perfect day to sip the iced tea and watch the tape crawl by without me.

Ian Woodward had a great blog post last evening. Here is an interesting side note he dropped in:

“But, then again the market climbs a wall of fear so keep an eye on the few remaining stars like NFLX that now becomes the Canary in the Coal-Mine.”

Looks like AAPL has been dropped from the throne as the stock to watch for market health. Gee we are switching from a stock that actually creates wealth in the world to a stock that the masses spend life watching instead of working and producing?

Cheers!

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March 29, 2011

Hold Em or Fold Em

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Obama

Obama on Libya

Here’s the NYT  editorial – basically an favorable review on an overdue speech to nation. Also the far right’s Bill Kristol  kudos from the Weekly Standard – “You’ve Come A Long Way Baby”

Both Popeye and Mama have made a understandable point in the comments section of Investors411 – This is tomahawks instead of teachers we are fostering and there is no clear and present danger to the USA. Many state the obvious – this multilateral action will be judged by wether Ka Daffy goes or stays. Good points -but

But consider a more pragmatic approach. You get there by putting one step after another and moving toward your goal. In the case of Lybia there are concrete steps that should be recognized.

  • Nicholas Kristoff in NYT said words to the effect that  you can’t prvent every genocide, but preventing one is a good thing
  • This was a multilateral approach (UN & Arab League backing) not a unilateral one like Iraq
  • No boots on the ground invasion force, but the use of diplomacy and force.
  • Genuine thanks not a phony pulling down of Saddam’s statue directed by a US army psychological operations unit.
  • The “Arab Spring” of revolutions across the Mideast would have been endangered if action were not taken.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________


Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.19% down
NASDQ -0.45% down
S&P 500 -0.30% down
Russell 2000 -0.25% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

The QE1 & QE2 chart relative to stock prices that was in yesterday’s Investors411  is now in the Strategy Section

  • Another weak volume day. Slightly higher
  • Some entity sold big time into close. Otherwise we would have had weak volume & slightly higher
  • $99 billion in Treasuries are being sold this week. That’s a lot more than the Fed POMO alone can soak up. Fed usually buys a bit under $6 billion most days.
  • Take Advantage of This Bull Market While It Lasts is a worthy editorial from Equity Network Corporation.  Specifically they talk about reacting NOW on the news before it gets rehashed over and over again by media. Precious metals as an inflation hedge is the top call for a bullish year.  I’m not so sure about post QE @ (June 30), but hope they are right.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a wee bit -0.11% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three/four day bull run stalled yesterday.  For stocksBullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell back to +9.78 . Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. Yesterday was no exception – the +30 resistance level was too strong for bulls to break. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Stock markets are dynamic and fluid. Forecasting tools change depending on what kind of market we have. Right now both Fed liquidity injections and High Frequency trading are impacting markets and many traditional tools (like volume) are not working as well as they used to

Bottom Line - Different times demand different forecasting tools.

Both the dollar and the MO have worked well for many many moons. See (click on links) charts above.

Hold Em & Fold Em

If you’ve  followed Investors411 you know we have a proven winner in both The Dollar and the MO as market forecasting tools

  • The dollar going down far more often than not translates into stocks going up.
  • The MO’s longer term +/- 60 & shorter term +/- 30 are both reasonably accurate points momentum swings the other way (oversold or overbought) The + side of the MO is overbought and the – side oversold.

Investors411 has repeatedly show why markets like seemingly bad news – it means more Fed quantitative easing. There are also key ETF’s to watch (see below) like USO (oil an inverse correlation) and tech leader AAPL that impact markets.

There hundreds, perhaps over a thousand different ways tell YOU – Hold Em or Fold Em. These seem to be working quite well now.

Short Bottom Line – We had our bull run off a -60 on the MO and paused as stocks got overbought. But obviously not all technicals (the MO being oversold/overbought) that moves markets. The headlines like earnings, Japan, Libya/oil, QE 2 are the drives and the technicals are the road signs of when to hold em and fold em.

So right now were in a holding pattern. The MO could fall to buyable levels and rise to fast and we’d have to sell. The momentum seems to be with the bulls.

What to watch today – Market movers

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up 8% now
  • A Hedge – Day one = UWM -0.60% & EWV + 0.55%  So day #1 was a wash.

UWM - – Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - Dipping has my interest today

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

We are on the cusp of change from NEUTRAL. We could swing back if stocks dip

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 28, 2011

Black Swans

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

JapanTEPCO in Japan has finally called for outside help. Even Greenpeace is on the ground saying their readings differ from TEPCO’s (science over politics) Common Dreams web site has a fascinating  real time tweeter updates TEPCO admits protracted and uncertain operation to contain crisis. Here the short version of the best video yet on the tsunami

Taxes –  GE made $14.2 billion in profits last year and over $5 billion in the USA. Guess how much they paid in taxes last year year Wait for it, Wait for it,  Wait for it – ZERO.  Now remember your taxes are due by April 15. Only in America

Financial Reform – Seems that virtually all Republicans and some Democrats are doing everything possible to make sure that those too big to fail shadow banks that destroy the meager measures the Dodd/Frank Bill put in place. The NYT’s lead editorial yesterday

Libya – This call may be premature, but it looks like after the allied/UN air strike many who supported Ka Daffy are changing sides. At least his army in the eastern 1/2 of the country has melted away. Al Jazeera reports no resistance to rebels in his home town. Huffington Post live blog

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Here’s the chart that demonstrates what Investors411 has been saying  since last year and why the Bulls Rule in our liquidity driven Fed manipulated stock market. (I realize most of you are sick of me saying the above again and again, but NOW is the opportunity to profit from this)

  • This chart was done by Kevin McCElroy from Seeking Alpha.
  • Want to know more? – Impact of POMO on Dollar by LFB from SA

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.41% down
NASDQ +0.24% down
S&P 500 +0.32% down
Russell 2000 +0.83% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Another weak volume liquidity driven manipulated rally on Friday.
  • On the surface it looks like the rag tag exuberant bunch called rebels in Libya are winning, because oncee air strikes clobbered exposed military units resistance became almost non existent – For stock = bullish. For oil = Bearish For Ka Daffy = Bearish
  • Black Swans (Big event bad news) everywhere. From John Nyaradi on this week’s outlook in stocks. Remember bad news is more often than not an elixir for stocks because it means a stronger possibility of more quantitative easing.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose significantly +0.74% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three day bull run For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +24.38 Getting oversold. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30 = Bearish /Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The Bulls have had a stellar 7 day run in weak volume. (weak volume rally= calling card of a liquidity driven manipulated market)  They are starting to come up against some technical resistance that may slow them down – A rising dollar and the MO nearing overbought levels. “Merger” Monday  has historically been the best day of the week. If Ka Daffy supporters don’t have the stomach for a fight you could see rally continue. The however  perversely good news (lower oil prices if Ka Daffy looses) may turn out negative because it would mean less of a chance of QE ##

Short term rising dollar and oversold levels should hold bulls back this week.

War room

Every major group of traders is sitting in their war rooms discussing the end of QE #2 (quantitative easing) and how it will impact markets before/on/after June 30th (ending date)

Will the Fed do a QE #3? Since we have over 3 months till this happens bulls should rule unless too many traders front run what they perceive is the end of quantitative easing. Frankly, there are whole mess of investors out there who believe there will be a QE #3.

So best read of tea leaves is still bullish till June 30th. More low volume rallies. (see chart above)

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up  8+% now
  • A Hedge – Friday bought UWM at 47.00 & EWV (2x short Japan) at 35.81 (see comments section of blog)

UWM – - Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. - approaching highs of last month & 2010 – I do own this ETF in other accounts and have sold covered calls on some of it.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversly to the dollar

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Your Stock List seems to be turning the corner and has 5 breakout stocks

3 of the 4 major indexes are above their 50 DMA’s and the NASDQ is sitting on its 50 DMA.

Longer Term OutlookCAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 22, 2011

Abysmal

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Burning Book

Libya – The UN/Obama’s reason for a no fly zone was to prevent a genocide. The USA/Obama policy is the removal of Ka Daffy. They are two different concepts. Obama’s action in the use of force against Libya without congressional approval was probably unconstitutional, but events on the ground called for immediate action before the collapse of opposition forces.

Japan –  It’s obvious to the whole world that the Japanese government has not been honest about the extent of damage from their nuclear problem. The Japanese people have been heroic. Radiation 20 km away from plant is 1600 times normal according to IAEA A significant potion of Japan is going to become a radiative wasteland like Chernobyl disaster in Russia.

Smoke and Mirrors of a

Manipulated Markets

Burn all the historic book on stock market analysis out there. Forget the analysis of of self interested talking heads on the tube. What we have in the USA is simply a manipulated market that has  radically altered what used to pass for traditional investing.

Forget the experts and/or brokers who are paid exorbitant fees for market analysis. Burn the book and blow away the smoke. Here’s new rule #1. When volume is abysmal US stocks move higher. Little else matters.

Low volume = a rally

Why when volume plunges does the market rally? Simply put – Its easier to manipulate. This allows those entities juiced by zero % interest rates, those benefiting from the Fed POMO program, and big US companies with hoard of cash to manipulate stocks higher.

One favorite way is through High Frequency Trades (HFT’s) that almost mystically make huge buy and sell offers for stocks appear, vanish and sometime buy. These automated computer programs seemingly vanish in high volume but reappear when volume dries up and drive stocks higher. Of course certain HFT’s are always around taking advantage of trade imbalances.

Bottom Line –  For all of you who trade or own stocks  This is a headline driven market and it takes a massive headline to overwhelm the manipulators. It took both the Middle East crisis & Japan Catastrophe to even put a dent in manipulated stocks.

Short term the tsunami of  liquidity makes this a manipulated bull market. Longer term there are some very negative consequences, but that’s another editorial.


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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.50% down
NASDQ +1.83% down
S&P 500 +1.50% down
Russell 2000 +2.31% -

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Lowest volume since Feb. 14th. Low volume = markets rally. The lower the volume the easier it is to manipulate the markets Therefore the manipulators –  the Fed, shadow banks, High Frequency Traders & others push stocks higher.
  • The far less than 50% of the market that belongs to investors who make their decisions on stock valuations are currently focused on  - higher oil prices, a falling dollar, economic distortions created by Japan, & emerging market growth
  • The following is becoming the dominant force in the US stock market. -If markets go down its because of fundamental reasons. When US stocks rise its because of manipulation.
  • Since QE2 began in November there have been dozens upon dozens of low volume rally days. Sometimes huge rallies, sometimes small. That’s the new normal.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell again -0.42% Bearish longer term pattern. Major support level broken. Down 6 of last 7 days. For stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +6.32  Right in the middle – not overbought or oversold. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The USD and the MO are the two technical tools that have a track record of working in this manipulated US stock market. One is neutral the other bullish.

The dollar’s fall is good for stocks, but as mentioned numerous times before, falling too far too fast is dangerous. We haven’t reached those levels yet, but if the dollar falls another 3 to 5 % rapidly you are going to hear a chorus of very worried economists


What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments (diminishing factor, but still important)

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • Bought UWM (see Friday’s blog) at 43.49

UWM – Will sell 1/2 at @5% profit and let the rest ride. Will sell/haves stop at 1/2 at price it was bought for

See yesterday’s blog for list of considered ETF’s

Will buy the dip to buy if we get one today. Of course if there is a catastrophic negative headline I’ll wait to buy. Perhaps last day before MO gets too high to buy.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

If the majority of the major indexes again start to trade above their 50 day moving averages the long term outlook will change back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) already is and the others are close. (See charts at top right of blog)

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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March 18, 2011

March Madness

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

News /Trends/ Politics

  • United Nations – “voted Thursday to authorize military action, including air strikes against Libyan tanks and heavy artillery and a no-fly zone, a risky foreign intervention aimed at averting a bloody rout of rebels by forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.”  Thanks to Popeye for heads up on NYT story
  • Japan – Someone, somewhere, somehow really knows what’s going on. But their lips are sealed as Japanese government says one thing and other countries say something else. Latest news “smoke from reactors,” at Huffington Post. This smoke and mirrors is exactly like the shadow banking system in the USA who doesn’t even have to follow FASB
  • Anonymous – More on the internet hacker group that “above all intends to break the international banking cartel centered at the Fed
  • United Nations – Irony: Almost every country that voted to give Obama/France & England cover to take out Ka Daffy, cited the support of the “Arab League.” It just so happens that the vast majority of the Arab League is itself oppressive dictators.  Oh well – we sacrifice one revolution – Bahrain,  to crush a more despotic regime in Libya.
  • ObamaHe shoots he scores: It took Cheney/Bush months of phony arguments and all they got was a now disintegrated “coalition of the willing” in Iraq. In a couple weeks Obama (Boy did the Clintons push for this) got a unanimous security council vote (10 voted yes & 5 abstained).  International credibility to attack Ka Daffy might even be a last second buzzer beater for the rebels.
  • Basketball – The most passionate US sporting tournament began yesterday. While you may call the above topics March Madness, the 68 college team tournament owns the rights to the real title – March Madness. (video)
  • LibyaJust in  - Ka Daffy says OMH and halts all hostility.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.39% down
NASDQ +0.73% down
S&P 500 +1.34% down
Russell 2000 +0.46% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan’s nuclear situation is still the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Now, Libya & oil become another dominant factor. Market movement is dictated more by behavioral psychology than technicals at this point. However, there are some relevant technical and fundamental points.

  • G7 intervention in Japan a short term positive for world markets. Stabilization better than chaos.
  • Visions of a kick ass  adrenaline rush war in Libya dance in traders minds today. But that can change to burning oil fields.

________________

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a HUGE  -0.93% yesterday. Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar broke short term support, but directly above a major support level. = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -54.76 Still close to -60  oversold level.=Neutral/Bullish

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

Obviously, we had an oversold MO at -88 and we had a rally. But there was a second factor to the rally and that was the HUGE drop in the dollar. Some of this has to do with the Japan situation. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) last night has intervened to prop up their currency as well as the G7. The BOJ is printing gobs of money and using quantitative easing.

We’ll probably see a roller coaster ride for the dollar.  The long term trend is down. This makes US goods cost less abroad and increases profit. Bad news here is you don’t want the dollar to fall to far too fast. It becomes as worthless as Zimbabwe’s currency. It’s also troubling that in a disaster (Japan & Arab revolutions) people do NOT buy the dollar as protection.

Longer Term – A potentially winnable war in Libya, Japan rebuilds without nuclear power, and Saudis plus other oil dictatorships asserting authoritarian power/stability. If only those reactors don’t radiate a big hunk of Japan we have the potential for bulls to run.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. – Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced

  • No positions held.

Longer Term - A low MO has for the last 3 years been an accurate the signal to buy. I’ve used this Positions Section as an aggressive ETF section for short term trades. Any long position below should outperform if we don’t hit leg two of a worldwide recession. Japan will be in recession. However, quantitative easing will pick up the slack in the USA (a QE #3) if the situation gets too bad. All this is one big inflationary bubble that bursts down the road, but for now its still bubblicious.

So I’m buyer today – probably UWM . See comments section for more.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

_________________

CONGRATULATIONS To Paul who just got a kudos from the HGSI Technical Analysis site

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new “YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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March 17, 2011

Rebounds

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Elizabeth Warren

News/Trends /Politics

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.04% up
NASDQ -1.89% up
S&P 500 -1,95% up
Russell 2000 -1.19% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan’s nuclear situation is still the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Market movement is dictated more by behavioral psychology than technicals at this point. However, there are some relevant technical and fundamental points

  • Yesterday’s heavy volume sure liked a climax sell off or the start of one. Volume dramatically higher has wiped out the weak holder of stocks, and there is room for an upside move.
  • Single largest piece of financial news is the dramatic move higher for Japanese currency . Another economic blow to Japan All good coming from Japan will cost more and what’s called the “carry trade” has ended.

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose yesterday +0.46% Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar directly above a support level. = Neutral.
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to--88,39. Clearly oversold, but news from Japan trumps everything =Bullish

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

Japan reactor developments trump all technical aspects of the market. However, you have to start to think that at least some of the worst case senerio is built into stock prices.

This is a chart of the MO for the past 3 years The MO has fallen to -90 about 6 times in the last three years and each time it has improved dramatically within a couple days. It has not been this low in almost a year.

When you add the  flow of the Fed POMO money coming into the market to the fact that only strong holders of stocks are left you have a formula for a rally.

Yes, there could easily be another leg down on the Japanese reactor situation worsening. But for those with guts to buy when everyone else is selling now is the time. More reasonable investors will want to wait for another leg down or conclusion to the Japan reactor problem. Perhaps, A more sensible and cautious approach.

Stocks in pre market trading are moving higher. Moving up on no significant news from Japan is a positive sign. Moving up on bad news would be better.

Bottom Line – An oversold rebound is likely and shouldl turn into a rally if Japan situation stabilizes.

The one worry is Fed POMO runs out on June 30. If stocks are bad, there will probably be more quantitative easing. But the uncertainty over this hurts stocks.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now down below $100.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL -
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • No positions held.

Considering UWM or TNA near the open if it does not open dramatically higher. Could be a very short term trade.  See comments section of blog for timing.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


  • Share/Save/Bookmark
March 2, 2011

Danger Will Robinson Danger, Danger.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Focusing on the Root Cause

The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has expressed “surprise” that the public is not more angry with the bankers who caused the recession.

England’s top banking official had other warnings as well

“The evidence of the past is that the impact of a [financial] crisis like that persists for many years,” … You may not get it back for very many years if ever. It’s a very real hit on living standards. That’s why it is important to take the issue of financial stability very seriously.”

“I joined the Bank of England 20 years ago today… I don’t want to leave until we have a framework in place to ensure we don’t have to go through this again.”

It encouraging to see King  join Alan Greenspan in admitting where the fault lies.  Too bad everyone else is blaming teachers, firefighters, police, middle class Americans, immigrants, unions and just about anyone except our corrupt shadow banking system.

Guess Who Has Ka Daffy’ Money?

In yesterday’s blog Investors411 speculated that it was the US shadow banks. As one of you remarked in the comments section “true, true, true.” Backers of the psychopath dictator and mass murderer in Libya are Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JP Morgan. It turns out they have a huge hunk of this money.

_____________

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.38% up
NASDQ -1.61% up
S&P 500 -1.57% up
Russell 2000 -1.99% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • The same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building trading pattern took a body blow yesterday
  • The impact of higher oil prices around the world has become a threat to globalized growth.
  • Stocks broke a 7 month long string of being up on the first day of the month.
  • Oil prices exploded to new highs along with gold yesterday.
  • This is not the building Fed manipulated bubble bursting, but  two other bubbles that may be bursting – No coherent alternative energy policy in the USA since President Jimmy Carter put solar panels in the White House & the US support for oil dictators. Both are bursting in our faces.
  • Today is a confirmation day for the breakout in oil. Oil prices are not at all time highs, but the breakout yesterday is significant.

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose yesterday +0.21%. This moderate rise enabled the dollar to close above its support level. Therefore, No confirmation of breakdown of support level. Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index For stocks = Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to to -15.44 Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. Note: the +30 barrier has become a very strong resistance point. Getting close to +30 resistance level. Stocks outlook = Neutral

________________

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Reading The Tea Leaves

A Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger moment is here.  The potential for a quantum shift in the outlook of the US and more importantly the world economic picture is upon us because of higher energy prices.

Its impossible to judge just how sever the impact will be, but one should certainly be cognizant of the fact that higher oil prices will negatively impact most stock positions.

There is a danger of more investors pilling on the panic that a new high in oil prices brings.

  • It sure looks like Libya’s oil is not going to reach markets for a long time.
  • The potential for revolution in other oil dictatorships is apparent.

Few saw Mubarak’s downfall coming and I wonder if investors are  again under estimating  the impact revolutions could have on the disruption of energy supply and the world’s economy.

So its time to bring out the old Lost in Space robot, because of the potential for at least a short term quantum shift in outlook for world economics.

The robot from the old TV show always warned young Will Robinson of impending danger by waving his arms and shouting – “Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger.”

Bottom Line - The longer KA DAFFY holds onto power the worse it is for the oil supply. The potential for other oil disruptions exists.

I’m reasonably sure of the major short term negative economic impact these revolutions will have. I’m not sure how much this can overwhelm the Fed’s liquidity dump in the USA.

Technically, today is an important confirmation day of the move higher in oil and lower in stocks. If we have confirmation then the robot will keep flashing its warning.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Bounced off its 50 DMA support level. As long as it hangs in above that everything OK

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • RJA 1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)

While the two above positions should outperform stocks, a spike in oil prices will hurt both. Will place a 3% trailing stop today on both.

I hope I’m wrong, but, it may be time to dust off those ETF’s that short and double short major indexes.  See positions section of blog.

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Buy the dip. Why not, its a hedge against higher gas prices. Buy any small dip.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding.  Hopefully longer term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver and approaching breakout. Many web sites that focus on precious metals are calling this a manipulated commodity. A buy the dip ETF

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETNnot an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. Stop set at @ 2 % below rising 50 DMA. UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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February 28, 2011

To My Fellow Cows

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Economic Bottom Line

Imagine if every top narcotics official had a $2,000,000 a year job waiting for them with the drug cartels after they retired. What would happen?

(paraphrasing Matt Taibbi on shadow finance and politics in USA)

That’s essentially what we have in the USA. Not in narcotics, but in finance/business. Not only is the money that oligarchs provide financing political campaigns dominated by business, it also dominates the retirement and appointments of top  ranking elected and appointed officials who are supposed to regulate Wall Street.

Over the weekend NYT’s Joe Nocera published yet another list of Wall Street crooks who are too in bed with our political leaders and the regulatory agencies to even be made to say they are sorry for what happened. (thanks to Popeye for referencing this in comments section of blog)

Charles Ferguson, whose film Inside Job last night won the Oscar for best documentary again stated the obvious – the economic crisis is a multi trillion dollar colossal crime perpetrated on the working-class masses by a greedy few – yet no one goes to jail.

It may infect more Republicans than Democrats, but the far more important point is that self serving corruption dominates BOTH political parties.

In 2008 a great financial and economic problem became apparent. Trillion of dollars has been lost and additional trillions thrown at this problem, yet  unlike other financial meltdowns, no one has been held accountable. Virtually nothing has been done to structurally change or investigate the root cause.

Our politicians can not get at the root cause because they would have to admit corruption and put the powerful status quo at risk of loosing their power. The very power that insures the politician’s election and future wealth.

Jeffry Sachs, of Columbia University, realizes that long term sustainable development is no longer possible in the USA. Both parties are financed by the  big money of the wealthy elite whose lies are shouted at us so thick and fast that we can only hear the drumbeat of propaganda and slogans.

So the malaise of a temporary recovery in the selected sectors of the casino capitalism that befit the wealthy elite continues as different economic bubbles continue to build.

If your one of the financial masters of the universe whose income tops $2 million a year, the rest of us in a globalized world are little more than cows that eat grain, providing milk and eventually get slaughtered. Chinese cows, Indian cows, American cows – what’s the difference? Sometimes the young cows wake up – like in Egypt . They may not win, but at least they had the guts to try.

_____________

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.51% down
NASDQ +1.58% down
S&P 500 +1.06% down
Russell 2000 +2.21% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble.

  • Once again stocks rallied in below average volume. – Same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building reasserting itself as the dominant trading pattern.
  • Libya did manage to disrupt last week. Until the oil fields start burning its impact on stocks should diminish.

Below is a repeat from past Investors411. It will be placed in the strategy section of blog until it is not longer relevant.

  • Mantra #1 - till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. Another term for this is quantitative easing or QE #2.
  • Mantra #2 - 50% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
  • You can NOT compare, use many technical tools, or historic data to evaluate this market because it is being manipulated higher by our Fed or central bank and the majority of volume is soaked up by HFT’s chancing imbalances.
  • Two significant reasons allow the Fed to keep the liquidity tsunami flowing - Housing prices are hurting & Unemployment figures are high.

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose  Friday +0.29%.  Dollar has bounced off a short term support level around $77.  Let’s see if it holds today.  If it falls bulls get the momentum back, but until then= Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to to +3.17. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. Note: the +30 barrier has become a very strong resistance point. Stocks outlook = Neutral

________________

Buy the Dip – Same plate that was served over a week ago is still there.

Reading The Tea Leaves

The same Old Song - But we obviously have a new fundamental factor – revolutions in oil rich dictatorships - This could alter everything. Some truly bizarre statistics that have me very concerned.

  • In times of crisis everyone usually piles into the dollar – They haven’t
  • The Saudi’s promised to make up for the lack of Libya’s supply problem. But you can’t replace “sweet” crude with gunky oil. Strange this is not impacting markets more.

Paul did a great job over last week and called the dip perfectly. As stated many times +/-30 has become the new short term support/resistance level for the MO (see above.)

What to watch today

USO - oil prices

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL – Bounced off its 50 DMA support level. As long as it hangs in above that everything OK

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)  Stopped out (had a 5% trailing stop on this) at 45.74 for 6+% profit . Total gain @6%
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • RJA 1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)

Not settled in enough after vacation to make a call on anything except buying oil ETF on dips. Too much global volatility.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Buy the dip. Why not its a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding.  Hopefully longer term holding. Stop set about 2% below rising 50 day moving average.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. Stop set at @ 2 % below rising 50 DMA.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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